We’re heading into Summer and the silly season now, so don’t necessarily expect much polling (August tends to be quite anyway…the month after a general election even more so). This is just a quick update on the latest YouGov voting intention figures, which are CON 41%(nc), LAB 44%(+1), LDEM 7%(+1). Fieldwork was Monday to Tuesday and changes are from a fortnight ago. Full tabs are here.


891 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 41%, LAB 44%, LDEM 7%”

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  1. Looks like the Southe East Seasise Resorts are going Labour as in two of yesterday’s Council by-elections:

    Margate Central (Thanet)
    Labour gain from UKIP.
    Labour 57.5% (+23.7)
    Conservative 24.1% (+3.6)
    UKIP 6.6% (-25.2)
    Lib Dems 4.2%
    Independent 3%
    Greens 2.9 % (-8.6)
    Independent 1.6%

    Marine (Worthing)
    Labour gain from Conservative
    Labour 47.4% (+27.8)
    Conservative 38.8% (-6.4)
    Lib Dems 11.3% (+1.1)
    Greens 2.5% (-6.2)

  2. Still neck-and-neck on right to leave, wrong to leave…

  3. Woo, polling. There’s a novelty.

  4. Once again the Scottish crossbreaks look bad for SNP and good for Labour; that kind of swing would knock the SNP down to single digit seats.

    I’ve updated my model with this poll, and the current prediction for a general election tomorrow would be:

    Con – 40.9% – 284 seats
    Lab – 43.0% – 309 seats
    LD – 6.9% – 17 seats
    UKIP – 3.4% – 0 seats
    Green – 1.8% – 1 seat
    SNP – 34.3% (in scotland) – 18 seats
    Plaid – 9.2% (in wales) – 2 seats
    NI – 18
    Speaker – 1

    As you can see my model anticipates a further squeezing of the lib dem vote, but an increase in seats mostly due to tactical voting.

    Just for fun, rejigging my model to base the prediction on this poll alone I get:

    Con – 283
    Lab – 326
    LD – 16
    UKIP – 0
    Green – 1
    SNP – 3
    Plaid – 2
    NI – 18
    Speaker – 1

    Takeaway – the SNP number of seats is seriously volatile.

  5. Milton Regis (Swale) result:

    LAB: 53.8% (+25.1)
    CON: 23.9% (-9.8)
    UKIP: 14.2% (-14.7)
    LDEM: 8.1% (-0.5)

    Labour GAIN from UKIP.

    Another big increase in Labours vote share in a council election.

  6. I suggest “aspirating” anything further on student debt “aspirations” on the last thread where no-one need read it :)

    I left something there for you Carfrew since you seemed a bit uncertain about polling evidence!

  7. re. Yougov:
    I notice both Labour and Tory raw % is down with the beneficiaries being DK, LD and Greens (hidden in the 4% others by further erosion of UKIP and SNP).

    And 55% are now convinced the govt is doing a bad job of negotiating Brexit (presumably from very different points of view).

    All probably random fluctuation however!

    Meanwhile the local by-elections show Labour campaigning hard and getting rewards, Greens, UKIP and Tories doing badly and the Lib Dems sort of holding their own but doing badly compared to before the GE (when they would almost certainly have made two gains last week)

  8. Hmm, any sign of Labour’s honeymoon coming to an end seems to be over. I expected more of a reversal after the post-GE peak. The council seat wins are also a bit surprising.

    It shows that the negative press against Corbyn (uni fees, Venezuela), just isn’t working. At this point, and after all that’s been thrown at him already over the last 2 years, CCHQ need to come up with a more original approach if they want a smear to stick.

  9. I’m disappointed in this-but I guess it demonstrates the nature of the damage Cons inflicted on themselves. It is sticking for now.

    From these findings , positives for Cons are still available though :-

    2017 Con DKs-work hard to retrieve them

    Best PM-try to cement that advantage after TM’s hols

    Top 4 most important issues-Cons “best” for three of them so try to swing the other one-ie more money for NHS. BUT-don’t screw up Brexit, don’t have a recession & don’t make them feel let down on immigration.

    Hope you enjoyed the walks Theresa-welcome back to the In Tray from Hell.

  10. @ SSSimon

    “negative press against Corbyn (uni fees, Venezuela)”

    While I know there are some on this site who have talked about Venezuela in the same sentence as Corbyn’s Labour, I haven’t heard people outside making this connection much. Is this just another echo chamber thing that hasn’t got any traction with the majority of the electorate? Any popular coverage of this available? I certainly wouldn’t be aware of it if it weren’t for this site.

    Anyway, time to study the tables, even if there’s not much.

  11. Owen Pattison says the Irish president is exaggerating probs with the border post Brexit. That’s not what that article by S O’Toole on the previous thread said.
    DUP cracking the whip?

  12. @COLIN

    I don’t think the Conservatives will ever win the “who’s best on NHS?” question.

  13. @COLIN

    If I were a Tory I would be worried about a couple of things

    Firstly taxation is used to be a strong Tory thing and now it is not
    Housing also it seems whilst the connection with the wider economy is still seen as a strong point all the underlying indicators are not moving in a direction which helps

    I think you have summarised thing though. I believe we associate brexit as a meme for everything ‘wrong’ with the country and I also believe there is a underlying point that brexit will restore things so immigration would mean more social housing more school places etc if brexit does not deliver this I believe the Tories automatic positives such as being good on economy and immigration may actually mean less.

    As it is leading in 3 out of the top 4 items does not translate into much of a lead (when taking in to account MOE) and even election result.

    What is also interesting is the 14% DK and how to win them I find this a surprising number considering that the Tories won.

  14. @ passtherockplease

    Maybe the 14% believed the “Strong and Stable” line and are now annoyed at the failure to achieve that?

  15. @ Trigguy

    “Is this just another echo chamber thing that hasn’t got any traction with the majority of the electorate?”

    I suspect it’s just an effort to throw some muck Corbyn’s way, hoping residual memories of the somewhat farcical Livingstone/Chavez stuff might stick. Clearly it didn’t work.

    CCHQ really need to get their act together. They can’t just expect the 40% shield wall to last forever. They need to work on a building a positive vision for the future equivalently proactive to Labour’s efforts.

  16. It’s pretty much a meh poll with little change from the last lot of trackers on the whole. Those Conservatives who hoped the drop in Labour’s post election bounce would continue were going to be disappointed because that had already levelled off as those Tory voters bewildered by the weak and unstable result had already come back from DK/WNV. There’s still more of them than Labour[1], 14% v 8%, but that’s what you would expect and there may not be more short-term gains from there.

    Most movement in this poll is margin of error or even rounding difference. There is one area of change though. The deficit on How well or badly do you the government are doing at negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union? continues to grow from -27 to -30 (all due to an increase in badly). The tracker shows it was +1 in April:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1l0aitme5a/YG%20Trackers%20-%20EU%20Tracker%20Questions.pdf

    There are similar shifts in related topics such as immigration with the beneficiary being UKIP rather than Labour. UKIP’s VI isn’t benefiting yet (and their local election results continue to be appalling) but it might hint at a splintering of the hardline leave vote as, inevitably, Brexit fails to satisfy the conflicting fantasies of its supporters.

    [1] One odd little thing about recent YouGovs is that the raw figures have more 2017 Lab than Con voters. This suggests a reluctance to take part in polls which may indicate a certain shakiness – and a growing confidence from Labour supporters.

  17. BARNY

    Never say never in politics :-)

    PTRP

    @”Firstly taxation is used to be a strong Tory thing and now it is not”

    Even stevens in this Poll-but then it has very low salience.

    @”Housing also it seems whilst the connection with the wider economy is still seen as a strong point all the underlying indicators are not moving in a direction which helps”

    Yep-Lab streets ahead-5th in salience. Very important for Cons. It just seems so convoluted a process to turn policy into housing units via the maze of planning laws. In my own village a Neighbourhood Plan has been captured by a NIMBY Parish Council who are now at daggers drawn with District Council planners.

    Yes-Brexit outcomes are hugely important.

    @”As it is leading in 3 out of the top 4 items does not translate into much of a lead (when taking in to account MOE) and even election result.”

    No lead at all in this Poll !-but without the leads I mentioned presumably much worse for Cons.-They have a huge job of work to do to improve their ratings.

    The 14% have to be retained-otherwise curtains :-)

  18. RJW

    Owen Pattison says the Irish president is exaggerating probs with the border post Brexit.

    Do you have a link for that? The only Owen Pattison googling finds is an actor. Is that the correct name?

  19. Barbazenzero

    Owen Paterson is the man

  20. BZ
    What Sam says is correct.
    My bad!
    But the said O P is a senior Tory opining on stuff in a manner which is very close to DUP views on the matter in question.

  21. People are mad! Totally bonkers

    There is a piece in the independent which says 58% of leave voters would be prepared to pay to keep their EU citizenship!! I feel sorry for May and her colleagues, how can you govern a people so confused?

  22. CR

    It’s holding a referendum on such an enormously complex matter that is totally mad.

  23. SAM & RJW @ BZ

    Thanks for the info. I presume Owen Paterson is the same quitter whom the Indy quotes as saying “Only a madman would actually leave the [single] market” in the EU referendum campaign.

    The BBC’s Taoiseach Leo Varadkar ‘does not want economic border’ includes:

    Former Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson said 17.4m people voted to leave the EU and that meant leaving the single market and customs union.

    “We know perfectly well that there are heads of member states that did not like the Brexit result,” the Conservative MP told BBC Radio 4’s World at One.

    “We know that the political establishment in Dublin is not happy with the fact that the UK voted to leave the EU.

    “But all these stories surrounding the border are massively exaggerated when we have modern technology.”

    Like the DUP’s Donaldson he seems to have a childlike faith in the ability of IT to solve any problem. As someone who has worked in IT and telecomms [using paper tape & telex lines for data transfer] since the mid-60s I am flattered, but somewhat surprised.

    If both Donaldson & Paterson mean what they say, the the obvious solution is to put Brexit on hold until the technology they require is physically available and in place everywhere it’s needed: in every field on all NI’s borders and all the UK’s ports. Should be realistic inside a decade or two providing adequate funding is in place. It could also provide some employment for the locals.

  24. @Sssimon

    It shows that the negative press against Corbyn (uni fees, Venezuela), just isn’t working. At this point, and after all that’s been thrown at him already over the last 2 years, CCHQ need to come up with a more original approach if they want a smear to stick.

    The well-trod path to Governments winning elections is not about what they do regarding the Opposition, or any kind of smearing.

    The way to re-election is to ensure you deliver what you promised the electorate and being competent.

    Concentrate on getting on with the job and don’t stuff it up!

  25. Excellent poll for Labour. Glad to see that despite intense saturation smear campaigning from the MSM Labour support is solid. Apparently the “Corbyn wants Hard Brexit” smear hasn’t much purchase outside the London media and the Blairite faction of Labour, they will be very disappointed as they had pinned many of their hopes of removing Corbyn on this being an effective way of putting young people off voting Labour.

    Another interesting development is the alliance between the Guardianistas and the Trotskyite left over Freedom of Movement. Today the Guardian ran a comment from Michael Chessum criticising of Corbyn’s stance on FoM, which is interesting since Chessum is a leading member of a small but fanatically committed Trotskyite group called the Alliance for Workers Liberty. The AWL have an ongoing grudge against the Corbynite left because they were prevented from being part of Momentum, for reasons too arcane and geeky to get into here, and until a few months ago had been at the centre of numerous Guardian scare stories about Reds under the Bed, whereas now all is forgiven and they’re working together to attack the leadership. Politics makes for strange bedfellows.

    Despite the caveats about small sub-samples the Scottish voting intention is very encouraging for Labour, but unlike England they will have more difficulties in translating that into seats. They don’t have a large membership and strong ground campaign – Scottish Labour have gone out of their way to prevent people joining and playing an active role because Dugdale’s leadership is of the the last bastions of Blairism, and her position depends on keeping the membership small and disengaged so they can’t vote her out. So the sort of massive ground game that Momentum could mobilise in England isn’t likely to be reproduced in Scotland under the current leadership. Worth pointing out that Labour membership in Scotland is still at historic lows whilst the party nationally has put on about 50k new members since the election, and is likely to go above 600k members by the year’s end.

    I hope I am wrong and that Scottish Labour can rescued by the left, because according this post on political betting if all three parties ended up on 30% the Scottish Nationalists could end up with as few as 6 MP’s. Winning back Scotland would be a huge boost to Labour’s chances of winning a majority in the next GE.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/26/if-con-lab-and-the-snp-each-got-30-of-the-scottish-vote-sturgeons-party-would-be-down-to-just-6-mps/

  26. @Barny

    Once again the Scottish crossbreaks look bad for SNP and good for Labour; that kind of swing would knock the SNP down to single digit seats.

    I’ve updated my model with this poll, and the current prediction for a general election tomorrow would be:

    Con – 40.9% – 284 seats
    Lab – 43.0% – 309 seats
    LD – 6.9% – 17 seats
    UKIP – 3.4% – 0 seats
    Green – 1.8% – 1 seat
    SNP – 34.3% (in scotland) – 18 seats
    Plaid – 9.2% (in wales) – 2 seats
    NI – 18
    Speaker – 1

    As you can see my model anticipates a further squeezing of the lib dem vote, but an increase in seats mostly due to tactical voting.

    Just for fun, rejigging my model to base the prediction on this poll alone I get:

    Con – 283
    Lab – 326
    LD – 16
    UKIP – 0
    Green – 1
    SNP – 3
    Plaid – 2
    NI – 18
    Speaker – 1

    Takeaway – the SNP number of seats is seriously volatile.

    Thanks for posting this.

    I ran the poll through my own model and came up with:

    Lab 324
    Con 276
    LD 16
    SNP 12
    PC 2
    Green 1

    Very similar.

    Can you outline roughly what you do with your model please? Do you use data from different pollsters? How to process the multiple data points?

    Scotland remains looking tight, and tactical voting that may help or hinder the SNP could make major swings both ways.

    If I were the Scottish Labour I’d be pushing hard for new members and increasing the activist base. There is a lot of potential for many more gains.

  27. CMJ

    Your Scottish seat projections, do you have seat projections for the Tories in scotland if the sub sample is correct? If the cost of an extra SLAB MP is more than 0.1 of a ScotTory MP then it’s not a price paying. My point of view is that the last election was a disaster for labour in scotland, we gained 6 labour seats but lost 21 SNP seats. The seats that the SNP lost to the dems aren’t so bad although an SNP MP is better than a Dem MP but the 12 that they lost to the Tories is devastating. Of course it’s likely Corbyn would be PM if those seats had remained SNP.

  28. Sorry that last post should have been directed @barny

  29. @CR

    Scotland looks like this:

    Lab 28 (+21) 31.8%
    Con 14 (+1) 26.8%
    Lib Dem 5 (+1) 7.2%
    SNP 12 (-23) 33.3%

    While the SNP have the biggest vote share, it’s the anti-SNP tactical voting (mostly Lab or Con) that delivers fewer seats for them.

  30. @CR

    I answered before you posted it was directed at Barny!

  31. CMJ

    Thanks

  32. Polls

    These polls will be historically very interesting in 2022. In the meantime the continued success of labour in southern constits will bolster TM. After all people like amber rudd presumably quite like being HS and an MP.
    A slight labour lead is very powerful for TM if she knows how to use it.

    Only the tories can remove the Tory government for at least 2 years.i expect the repeal bill to pass without difficulty. The tory hardline remainers will respond to the question of country or party with the answer: job;

  33. That turkeys don’t vote for Christmas is fair comment. But only the Tories can remove the Tories is demonstrably wrong at the most trivial level possible. It is the very definition of a minority government that it must be false.

  34. Re Scottish sample

    Anthony notes that “We’re heading into Summer”.

    When looking at the Scots sample, it’s worth bearing in mind that we’re heading out of Summer! Scottish school year finishes at the end of June, and starts again in just over a week.

    Whether that has any effect on Scots polling, I have no idea, but it might be wise to avoid making seat predictions on the basis of a school holiday poll.

  35. @Oldnat

    I’m been tinkering with my model in my ‘shed’ for a while.

    I’m just bringing it out for a quick spin around the block for a quick test ;-)

  36. CMJ (et al)

    The VI in the Scots sample might be reflected in proper Scottish polling after the holidays.

    Without a Full Scottish poll on Westminster, Holyrood constituencies and list, it’s just very hard to know how opinion is shifting in this polity.

    Hopefully, there will be one after the school holidays, so that we can all get a handle on that.

  37. I’ve just seen a poll on the Yougov site where one of the questions was ‘are you left- or right-handed?’.

    There was very little difference by age, gender or region, but one result stood out. 14% of Labour supporters say they are left-handed, but only 4% of UKIP. All others around 10%. What can we read into that?

  38. “What can we read into that?”

    They mis-read the question…..

  39. @Pete B

    Assuming that there are many more Labour supporters than UKIP supporters, the UKIP proportion of left-handers has much wider confidence intervals.

  40. Tables please.

    Actually it may be an age thing (which is why I’d like to see the tabs). In the 50s children may still have been forced into writing with their right hand. Over the years as writing (as opposed to typing) becomes less important, the pressure is less and less. UKIP voters are older, Labour younger.

  41. YG says “Brits believe traditional media mattered more in the 2017 general election”

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/04/brits-believe-traditional-media-mattered-more-2017/

    Though that headline seems to be the product of someone that searched through the tables to find anything definitive to say!

    The predominant answer to most questions was a reassuringly honest “Don’t Know”.

    What might be worth exploring (quite possibly some University media academics already have) is the extent to which TV and Radio simply report the “news” that the papers have chosen to create.

    It’s hard to see what useful function concentrating on “What the Papers Say” serves – other than giving additional coverage to what the editors of the print media have decided to opine on (rather than giving actual news coverage).

  42. CMJ and Roger M
    Thanks. Two good explanations. I was thinking it might be something to do with left and right hemispheres of the brain. Actually, I’ve just looked at the age breakdown and it’s less marked than the Labour/UKIP difference. 10% of 18-24 and 8% of over65s.

    Here’s the link.

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/407fa8eb-78f8-11e7-afeb-29ba37326efc/question/e94699d5-78f8-11e7-98ed-a5444635f703/age

    If we can come up with three quite plausible reasons for the difference in such a simple question, it does emphasise how cautious we all have to be about interpreting what more serious polls mean.

  43. CATMAN JEFF

    Surprised at those seat numbers for the SNP given their still healthy share of the national vote. I still believe Dugdale’s Labour underperformed in June. Under a left of centre leader in the Corbyn mound I suspect Labour would have won a good number more seats at both the SNP and Tories expense. It may have made a huge difference and rendered it impossible for May to run a coalition Govt.

  44. @PeteB

    Thanks for the link.

    There is no details of numbers in each category, so it’s hard to tell.

    Here are the rough margin of errors according a variation in sample size (n):

    100 = +/- 9.8%
    500 = +/- 4.4%
    1000 = +/- 3.1%

    Some great advice is question everything!

  45. @Mike Pearce

    Under FPTP, if voters start to vote ‘anything but party x’, massive swings can occur. Unionist voters in Scotland have three tactical choices if so inclined. Many of the seats in Scotland are close, so any major uplift or downgrade of support for the main parties can radically change things if voters go tactical.

    It’s way way out from a GE, so of course lots can and will change. In our current climate any political prediction has the shelf life of a prawn sandwich, or a pair of Ratner’s earrings.

  46. Looks like in the South UKIP are going strongly Labour.

    Ask not for whom the bell tolls …

  47. CMJ

    Love your comparators with current political predictions!

    Given that 59% of the “holiday” Scots sample still think it is “wrong for Britain [1] to leave the EU”, and the BES analysis of the No/Remain preferences for which side of that position resonates most, I can see little clarity in VI developing until there is some clarity on “the deal”.

    With the 56 SNP MPs not being able to influence anything much in the last Parliament, and the Scottish Government being frozen out of negotiations, it wouldn’t be surprising if a number of voters were concentrating on which of ELab or ECon were the least worst to control Westminster.

    Once we see the outline of an actual “deal”, then the varying strategies of parties in Scotland might resonate more or less with voters.

    Which of the fault lines actually predominates at the time of an election will be critical for the Scottish vote.

    [1] What do YG know that we don’t? I was sure that it was the UK that was leaving the EU.

  48. I thought the big takeaway from the “traditional media sources” polls was that the young was the biggest consumers of media in all its forms. Which presumably means that they are better informed than the older generation.

  49. Nick p

    “Looks like in the South UKIP are going strongly Labour.”

    Yes it’s noticeable from the local by elections, but the same thing was happening in the general election.

    I was looking at a few of the South Coast seats last night. I might be wrong but it looks like there was a chunk of labour votes that went to the libdems in 2010, that chunk went to UKIP in 2015 and then to labour last time. It does seem like an odd journey and of course it’s not possible where votes are going between parties but labour collapse in 2010, libdem collapse in 2015, UKIP collapse in 2017.

  50. @Andrewlll

    Have replied on the previous thread. You didn’t actually make a point, you just linked to an article in the hope it might help but it doesn’t, hence you didn’t quote any of it.

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