The British Election Study have released their data from the election campaign waves today – one large wave straight after the election was called, a wave of daily rolling polls from throughout the campaign itself and a third large wave conducted straight after the campaign. All three of these datasets were collected online by YouGov (the face-to-face element of the BES is still to come). If you’re au fait with stats software like SPSS, Stata or R the raw data is available for download on the British Election Study site here.

There’s already some analysis of the data by the BES team here (a longer version of the article you may have seen on BBC this morning), focusing on how people changed their votes between 2015 and 2017, and between the beginning and end of the election campaign.

The article breaks down 2015 vote by Remainers and Leavers. Looking at how 2015 voters who backed Leave ended up voting in 2017, the Conservatives kept the vast majority of their 2015 leave voters and picked up over half of the 2015 UKIP vote (as well as a chunk of Labour Leavers). The collapse of UKIP wasn’t all to the Conservatives’ favour though, 18% of UKIP Leavers ended up moving to Labour.

Turning to the Remain vote, Labour were the clear victor: around a third of 2015 Tories who voted remain drifted away from the party, either to Labour or to the Lib Dems, but Labour also picked up a chunk of the 2015 Lib Dem vote and most of the 2015 Green vote. Of course, while this is easy to view through the prism of Brexit, that doesn’t necessarily mean Brexit was the main driver (to give an obvious example, yes – a large proportion of Green Remain voters moved to Labour… but a large proportion of the 2015 Green vote had already moved to Labour before the referendum, presumably as a result of the direction Jeremy Corbyn had taken the party).

More interesting is the movement during the campaign itself. 19% of people changed how they would vote between the start and the end of the campaign. This is not in itself unusual – in 2015 the figure was 17%, and according to the BES team it was higher in 2010 and 2005. The difference in 2017 is that this movement was overwhelmingly in favour of the Labour party, whereas at previous elections the churn largely cancelled itself out. Hence during the campaign we can see significant numbers of Tory votes, Lib Dem voters and, most of all, don’t knows moving towards Labour, but very little movement away from Labour.

In terms of explanations for the movement – while the voters Labour attracted during the campaign were those you’d expect to be the most receptive (that is, tending to be opposed to a hard-Brexit and left-leaning), the most obvious movement was on leadership ratings, that sharp collapse in Theresa May’s ratings and the steady increase in Jeremy Corbyn’s, and those people who moved to Labour during the campaign were also those who displayed the biggest increase in their perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn.

Ed and Chris’s full article is here.


372 Responses to “British Election Study release their campaign data”

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  1. @JimJam

    “sadly we don’t know how many of that 17% were Labour voters and how may of them might have voted differently has they understood the position. differently”

    ——–

    The figure of 17% suggests even quite a few Tories don’t believe Corbyn meant cancel all the debt. So how likely is it that there will be loads of Labour voters in that 17%?

  2. As opposed to the more polarised Tory voters…

  3. Or maybe even Liberals!!

  4. New Yougov poll out, fieldwork 31 July – 1st August. Despite the large time-lag, results are very similar to the last poll they did about two weeks ago. Here’s the numbers:

    Times/YouGov poll

    Labour: 44 per cent (+1)

    Conservatives: 41 per cent (no change)

    Lib Dems: 7 per cent (+1)

    Others: 9 per cent (nc)

    3 point Labour lead, up 1.

    I personally expected the two parties to be at parity right now due to the single market issue and attacks on tuition fee policy etc. So perhaps such attacks have not stuck (as many on here have argued). However, it’s only one poll etc. of course….

  5. Forgot to post the link to the YouGov poll. It’s only on the LabourList website at the moment:

    https://labourlist.org/2017/08/onwards-and-upwards-labour-inches-forward-in-polls-after-single-market-shift/

    Also a very interesting article, pretty clearly debunking the idea that people felt safe to vote Labour because they didn’t believe JC would become PM:

    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/did-people-vote-for-jeremy-corbyn-because-they-thought-he-would-lose/#.WYNcL9LyuUk

    This article actually argues the opposite: that people were more likely to vote Labour when they thought they might be able to win, on average.

  6. @Analyst

    I personally expected the two parties to be at parity right now due to the single market issue and attacks on tuition fee policy etc. So perhaps such attacks have not stuck (as many on here have argued). However, it’s only one poll etc. of course….

    I suspect that most of the public are fed up of listening to politicians and not taking much notice at the moment.

    (Apart from the geeks that inhabit this place)…

  7. Analyst – with the same Raw Data ICM may well show neck and neck or even slight Tory lead. I think YG will show better Lab than most other pollsters for the time being at least.

  8. At the beggining of June 2017, if anyone on here predicted Labour would be polling at 44% by August, people would be asking what they had been smoking.

    I am trying to think of anything positive for the Tories at the moment, which would see them increase their polling ?

  9. @CMJ

    Totally agree. Think there’s a tendency for people to assume they’re as engaged as they are. Outside election periods usually only big events, or long term trends (e.g. economic performance ) affect VI, I would say.

    Fact is, the leader of the opposition will never (and has never) been subject to as much scrutiny as the government. If it was, then Labour should have won in 2010 – because they supported new Labour’s economic policies, particularly deregulation of the banking industry. In fact the only thing they disputed was that they didn’t deregulate enough – imagine what might have happened then!

    By the same logic, even if Corbyn appears to support a hard Brexit, he probably won’t get the flack electorally if Brexit turns out disastrously (or not much of it anyway). Anyway, there’s a lot of easy ways to attack the Govenment on the issue (e.g. attack them for getting a bad deal – poor negotiations etc.), and lots of ways in which they could maneuver into a more electorally palatable position (i.e soft brexit) if the moment comes.

    We’ll need more evidence, but ultimately the outcry re tuition fees and Labour’s position on Brexit over the last few weeks doesn’t initially look like it’s having the effect some wished for.

  10. @JIMJAM

    That may be possible, but it’s the direction of change that matters, and it was positive here.

    Also the last ICM was 14-18 July, and previous Yougov was 18-19 July, with Labour leads of 1 and 2 respectively. If we assume that VI was stable over the week of 14-19 July, then we might suggest that, if anything, ICM would be more likely to show a Labour lead of 2, rather than 0. But the margin of error is of course much larger than the figures we’re talking about, so I guess we may well be at parity.

    It’s just that, there’s an equal probability of Lab being 5 points ahead.

  11. R Huckle.
    Hello from Bournemouth East which is Seat 75 on Labour’s target list.

    The Economy and clear Tory leadership over Brexit should help them

  12. tuition fees

    The kids are all on the beach congratulating themselves on their mighty contribution to the victory of Jezza. when they come back and find that they still have to pay fees they will also find, to their shock, that the rumours are true and that the jezzmeister, although he won , lost.

  13. @S Thomas

    It is comments like your last one which will continue to convince the “kids” that they need to keep supporting Corbyn as the others treat them with contempt

  14. S Thomas
    Just looked back at your comments on June 7th about ‘the Elders of the Tribe’ being about to put all these rebellious youth in their place.
    Fnah, fnah!

  15. S Thomas

    And any others that seem to think our young people are somehow substandard in the intelligence department.

    I’m getting a bit fed up with the negative tone of comments directed at young people. It’s not just on here. I detect it in other places also.

    Our young people are more clued up and responsible than certain people give them credit for. I work with young people and they constantly surprise me with things they know.

    I ask myself. Would I have known that when I was that age. The answer is usually no.

    Just because our young people voted for change does not make them wrong or daft.

    So they get all their information online, and have their heads buried in their IPad. At least that seems to challenge their grey matter more than having their heads buried in The Mail or The Express.

    We should all be celebrating the fact that younger people were engaged in the political process and want a stake in the future of our country whether we agree with what they voted for or not.

    I know quite a few first time voters who fully understand the result. Non of them think ‘Jezza’ won. Non of them feel let down. And non of them have changed their mind. They will vote the same next time along with many others and this is reflected in the polls.

  16. Just to lighten the mood posters. Not everything is deadly serious. So no faux outrage please.besides I am not likely to offend any teenage student on this site .What is the average age of a UKPR poster? 50 or 60

    As Hireton would say:surely there is some polling on this.

  17. @analyst

    This article actually argues the opposite: that people were more likely to vote Labour when they thought they might be able to win, on average.

    Some people are ckearly put off voting for parties which they think will not win (hence troubles of libdems), I suspect that in the last election many people were voting against those they did not like and in most cases the party most likely to stop the Tories was labour. Clearly it was only rational to vote for them while preferring (say) Green if one thought they had a chance of winning in your area.

    I also suspect there is reverse causation. People who prefer a certain party are irrationally likely to think that they are going to win. Anyone who doubts this should reread the posts on UKPR at the last election and see how predictions lined up with party preference!

  18. S Thomas
    My contribution was just right then? Lighthearted and pricking of pomposity,
    ‘Elders of the Tribe’ indeed!

  19. RJW

    even Sitting Bull couldnt keep Crazy Horse on the reservation.

    Are my posts available as a collection yet?

    I hope not after all my election prediction was ,i think, 45/34 although i said right from the outset that the election call was wrong Indeed i left the site in a sulk. Then i decided that you should not be deprived of my wisdom and so i returned, no doubt, to universal acclaim

  20. Tony btg
    I do not say that the young are substandard in the education dept. How could i say that. when i took my A levels it was the exception to achieve an A grade. Now so many get them that they have had to invent an even higher grade just to cope with the increased level of intelligence.
    Likewise in degrees. Back in the day we were so unintelligent that only 1 or 2 out of the year group achieved a first class honours degree. now i read that in some institutions the students have become so intelligent compared to us that up to 40% achieve first class degrees on a regular basis.This leap in intelligence must be due to receiving less tuition and guidance than we did and eating more blueberries.I cannot think of any other explanation for it.

  21. S Thomas
    As to the universal acclaim, I think we’d need some polling on that!

  22. Passtherockplease,
    ” There was no definitive meaning to brexit as Lord Ashcroft wrote in his book”
    Indeed. wouldnt disagree. Big part of the current problems.

    Alec,
    ” If you did what the BBC did and analysed the main news issues during the campaign, you wuld see clearly that there was far, far more coverage of domestic ‘bread and butter’ issues and way less coverage of Brexit than everyone expected. ”
    Not sure what one might conclude from that. What the news finds interesting is not obviously correlated with what voters find important. It was not news that the conservatives were standing on hard Brexit, so why would they report it night after night?

    ” A big majority on May’s Brexit terms would have given her the authority to deliver the Brexit she wanted”
    No, it would not. I have no idea what Brexit May might want, but the ticket she stood on is hard Brexit and that is the only sort she would have had a mandate for.

    ” if Brexit starts to become a difficult issue in NI, the DUP will drop May like hot coals”
    Maybe, maybe not. Liberals failed dismally to differentiate their interest from conservative party interest, but we shall see.

    “Labour cannot defeat the government without Tory rebellions. ”
    There’s that thing about the DUP jumping ship, but ignoring this, the influence of labour is on a sliding scale and is more the fewer government MPs there are, and less the more government MPs. There is no absolute cutoff. Arguments made by the opposition will receive more attention the closer they are to a chance of winning votes.

    “But that is not the same as claiming that May is now in a better position than she would have been had she won big. Whatever happens, she is going to own Brexit ”

    I didn’t say May is in a better place with a minority government than with a big majority. I said she is in a better place with a minority government than she was previously having not tested the mood of the electorate for hard Brexit.

    Polls tell us about what people think and want, and the ultimate test is a national poll rather than testing representative samples.

    If it had turned out that the nation was indeed behind hard brexit, she would have got both the big majority and the knowledge it was what people wanted. In such a case not only would she have the power to proceed but also be confident that there would be no longer term repercussions, because she was following voters wishes.

    If it turned out, as it did, that voters are not nearly so keen on hard Brexit as some thought, then the result both resticted her power to act to bring this about, and also made clear voters did not want it. At the same time as learning voters dont want what she has promised to deliver, she is deprived of power to deliver it, and therefore has a justification for not delivering what was promised…because she cannot.

    If there had been no election, she would have had to proceed with hard Brexit as promised, with no external reason for changing this policy. Even if polling suggested the nation had changed its mind, still she would have to contend with those to whom she had promised to carry it out and who would feel betrayed if she chose to abandon Brexit.

    The election confirmed the will of the people (in fact, against hard brexit), and provided force majeur to prevent her carrying it out. Well, the result is in fact a bit equivocal, but there is far better chance of now involving labour in the process than previously. It doesnt matter if the voters blame politicians for what proves to be a wrong action, just so long as the other side are also implicated.

  23. Analyst,
    “the outcry re tuition fees and Labour’s position on Brexit over the last few weeks doesn’t initially look like it’s having the effect some wished for.”

    Why would it have impact? There are only two sides in parliament, one professes to be hard brexit and one less so. Its clear who is on the soft side and who on the hard side.

    As to fees, they are out of control and too high (or not). The row is about how much labour said they would remit them. Again, whether it is a smaller or larger amount it is going in the same direction and the other party is going in the opposite one. The principle is not affected.

  24. @ SThomas

    “Just to lighten the mood posters. Not everything is deadly serious.”

    I don’t want to make this too serious either, so a fun fact I learned today was that it’s actually the ‘trainspotting generation’ of 40-49 year olds that has the most serious drug problem. For those that love generational graphics, there’s a nice one here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/aug/02/trainspotting-generation-most-likely-to-die-from-drug-misuse

    I think there is also other evidence that the current younger (student) generation are actually a lot more serious and sober. Which is a bit sad in itself really, but good that they are less at risk from drugs related deaths of course. So the old student image may be out-dated, they are far too worried about jobs and debts to have fun any more.

    OK, that’s an exaggeration, but we should think twice before accepting long established stereotypes, whether it’s about the younger generation or otherwise.

  25. Have to say, the decline of UKIP is really quite a spectacle. Just look at this tweet:

    https://twitter.com/Cemlyn/status/893170423696961536

    They also lost a council by election in Thanet today (Margate ward). This is UKIPland. Can’t win there, can’t win anywhere….

  26. @Danny.

    I agree with your points, those are the stances I took on the matter. With tuition fees, it reminds me of the £350m figure – a bit of a trap. All it does is remind voters who is on their side with respect to fees – even if they can’t do everything they want to. Just like how talking about whether it was £350m, or £150m, reminds people that we were paying a lot of money to the EU. Whether it was £350m or £150m, ultimately makes no difference because few people really appreciate the difference between such figures, and to the vast majority of us, both of those numbers sound like a very large sum of money.

    Same argument re: brexit, as you say.

    I’m not sure what Conservatives hope to achieve by pursuing this strategy. It can only ever work when the party is in government, or the party making the criticism goes further, e.g. if the Tories were a proper remain party, or wanted to abolish student debt entirely. But they don’t.

  27. There’s a paradoxical sense in which she sumultanously has less and more of a mandate for her Brexit than before.

    Because prior to the election the Conservatives had a clearer mandate for a vaguer objective, as they only had the vague 2015 mandate to “implement the result”. Whereas now she has a reduced mandate but for her more specified plan.

    And labour has a more specific mandate as well, having gone from none at all given its opposition to the whole referendum scheme in 2015 to its vague pledge to respect the result.

    I don’t think it is yet clear how that will play out.

    In a sense, she’s in the position Asquith was in 1910 when he went to the country to secure specific support for Lords reform, lost his majority, remained in office with Irish votes, and got his reform anyway. The longer historical consensus tends to judge that he got the mandate he sought. It might yet come to the same conclusion with May.

  28. “Whereas now she has a reduced mandate but for her more specified plan.”

    ———-

    She actually increased her share of the vote of course. So in that sense the mandate increased. Not in terms of seats alas…

  29. “her more specified plan.”

    What’s that? Saying “BREXIT IS BREXIT” again – but a bit louder?

  30. Looking through the election results there seems to be a regional variation for the distribution of former UKIP votes. It looks like it went heavily con in the north but went 50/50 or even more lab along the South Coast. Interesting, has anyone seen some analysis?

  31. @PeterW “Added to which, given that the Government has (probably) lawfully exercised the prerogative power to give notice as duly authorised by the 2107 Act, I am not sure of a mechanism by which Parliament can compel it to rescind it. In short, this is a mess. Article 50 feels like it was a token provision, to lay down a right in principle and avoid the mess that the United States got into by having two views over whether such a right even existed, but without any real expectation it would be exercised in practice.”

    You are right on both counts. Foreign treaties are the preserve of the sovereign and the only way Parliament could intercede is by bringing down the Government, forcing an election, getting a new PM who could then go on bended knee to the EU and ask to rescind A50. Even that might not be enough as the ECJ may rule otherwise. It’s why Leavers were hitting the country’s Champagne stock reserves hard on March 29th.

    Secondly, Lord Kerr & Giuliano Amato who drafted the original A50 have both admitted that it was written almost as an afterthought because the British complained there was no mechanism in the original constitution to secede. Neither thought the UK would be the ones to use it.

    @Carfrew

    My post originally pointed out that calling the Labour campaign “Principled” was undermined in several areas. There were MPs openly campaigning on the student debt issue. There was plenty of social media advertising going on. There was talk in the press about it, that Labour did nothing to curtail and in fact clearly encouraged.

    This is borne out by the fact 17% thought all debt would be forgiven and 26% thought some debt would be cancelled.

    After the election came the statements “I didn’t realise it would cost 100Billion” and I didn’t promise anything at all, actually.

    So I call shenanigans on that one.

  32. The UK economy is doing so well, that the Bank of England is having to print another £15 billion to give to high street Banks, so they can loan it to consumers. This £15 billion is part of £100 billion given to Banks in return for collateral and is slightly different to QE.

    http://news.sky.com/story/the-15bn-stimulus-the-bank-does-and-doesnt-want-10972127

  33. You would think Worthing was a real Tory stronghold. Amazing council result for Labour last night.

    Marine (Worthing) result:

    LAB: 47.4% (+27.8)
    CON: 38.8% (-6.4)
    LDEM: 11.3% (+1.1)
    GRN: 2.5% (-6.2)

    No UKIP as previous.

  34. Another result from last nights council election. UKIP votes mostly going to Labour.

    Margate Central (Thanet) result:

    LAB: 57.5% (+23.7)
    CON: 24.1% (+3.6)
    UKIP: 6.6% (-25.2)
    LDEM: 4.2%
    IND : 3.0%
    GRN: 2.9% (-8.6)
    IND: 1.6%

    Makes you wonder, whether UKIP supporters are mostly left of centre politically and don’t have any issue with Corbyn’s more Socialist policies.

    The question is whether these left of centre ex UKIP supporters would stick with Labour, if Labour decided it wanted EU single market access with freedom of movement continuing ?

  35. R huckle

    Locals suggest that Jezza hard line on leaving EU single market is paying dividends in the south. Perhaps their solidity in national polls is also based on this perception.

    Keir starmer needs to kept in his box if this is to cotinue

  36. Interesting research from Liverpool University”s Institute of Irish Studies reported here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/aug/04/northern-irish-unionist-parties-alienating-young-protestants-study

    Key finding is that the social conservatism of NI unionist parties is alienating under-40s unionists, who are increasingly opting out of voting in Stormont elections, but that isn’t significantly undermining their support for unionism.

    I can’t find a link to the original research to get to grips with the significance of this. But first thought is that Jezza wouldn’t want to touch potential unionist votes with a bargepole, so is there an opening for a socially liberal unionist party? Or could this demographic be tempted towards the non-sectarian Alliance party (or is that too keen on all-Ireland solutions?).

    I expect Sam has the answers…

  37. CMJ
    I have a challenge for you: get the software necessary to analyse the BES data and look at the regional swings.

    I had my doubts about your regional swing based predictions in the GE, but they seemed to work in Yorkshire! (The only place I really looked at). Congratulations!

    The BES data contains the answer to the question CambridgrRachel asks above about UKIP voters, although I have met at least one former UKIP voter recently who told me he voted Tory in the GE for the first time and would never do so in a local election.. So anecdotally the behaviour in local by-elections could be very different from the GE.

    My interpretation of the Worthing result last night would centre firstly on the very high Labour polling % at the moment combined with an enthusiasm for local campaigning at the moment which is absent in a rather demoralised Tory Party. In a 20% turnout by-election the local campaign can really change voting intention and differential turnout, which is why those big Lib Dem wins in Rotherham and Sunderland did not mean much outside those communities.. Labour did very well in both Worthing seats at the GE but the Tory vote has hardly changed over 2 decades so it is mostly a reorganisation of the anti-Tory vote in various ways.. (with lots of churn)

    Finally, are you still doing your analysis of YouGov polls? The verbal diarrhoea that infects this board means I tend to miss posts like yours that contain interesting data otherwise unavailable… (I suggest you put them on the VoteUk forum BTW! It is a calmer and more sensible place and you can create your own thread to house such things)

  38. @ R Huckle

    Many former UKIP supporters aren’t really left or right, they don’t really identify that way, or care that much about fiscal policy. They tend to be more populist, anti-establishment and socially conservative.

    At least two of those apply to Corbyn, and in a poor area like Thanet where the Tories are very much the establishment, I can see why Corbyn would appear attractive to them, as long as he keeps taking a hard enough line on europe.

  39. @ S Thomas

    Labour are rowing back on the Single Market, since Corbyn said that he has been contradicted by Abbott, Thornberry and McDonnell. I wouldn’t bank on Labour having a hard Brexit position when push comes to shove.

    Sooner or later the ambivalence will have to stop and it could get cleared up at Conference in the autumn. Given that the evidence suggests the majority of Labour voters members and MPs are pro-EU and an even bigger majority anti-hard Brexit it’s not difficult to imagine which side they will come down on eventually.

    Out if interest why would the good voters of Worthing Marine (Tory since its inception) switch to Labour if both parties have the same stance on Brexit? Perhaps your post was another that was intended to be light-hearted, it’s hard to tell.

  40. Sea Change – I am not sure you are getting it?

    It does not matter what you think or me for that matter what matters is who is that 17% is (Tory, Lab other) and would any of them have changed their vote had they believed the policy was different.

    You seem to think (sorry if I am wrong) that most or many are duped Labour supporting youngsters (recent graduates and current students paying the £9K+ perhaps their parents) some of whom would have voted differently.

    Others believe that the 17% would more likely be non-Labour voters or Labour voters for whom Tuition fees was not a major issue. Intuitively if the attraction to a particular party is a major single issue one would expect that voter to check out the actual policy to make sure what it was.

    You may be right but the alternative viewpoint is compelling. Sadly we don’t know as the breakdowns in the tables did not cover this.

    As above from Analyst – there does not seem to be any impact yet on VI; although only one poll and who knows labour may have had an even bigger lead without the fees issue if you are right.

  41. S THOMAS

    Your 10.16. Both amusing and accurate.

    CATMANJEFF

    Your 6.58. Yes indeed i suspect very few are interested at the moment.

    JIMJAM

    Your 7.02
    Not enough polling evidence available but i suspect you are right.

  42. @Jim Jam
    @cambridgerachel

    I bet a tenner on Leadsom to be PM on the assumption that if it got as far as the Tory membership they’d go for the hardest right option.

    I still think it was a worthwhile bet.

  43. Somerjohn

    Sorry to disappoint. I cannot find anything on the topic.

    There is some information on demographics to be found in Slugger’s atchive.

    Speaking about a United Ireland McWilliams writes about some demographic issues;

    As I write, I am looking at demographics in Northern Ireland from the 2011 census. The most interesting statistic shows the proportion of Catholic vs Protestant in various age groups. Of the over 90 population in the North, 64 per cent are Protestant and 25 per cent Catholic. A total of 9 per cent had no declared religion.

    This reflects the religious status quo when these people were born in the 1920s and more or less reflects the realities of the Treaty.

    Now look at the same figure for the under 4s, those children and babies born since 2008. This corresponding figure is 44 per cent Catholic and 31 per cent Protestant. In one (admittedly long) lifetime, the Catholic population in the youngest cohort has almost doubled., which the Protestant one has more than halved.

    Even given the fact that 23 per cent of parents of infants declared themselves as have no religion. we seem to be en route to a united Ireland.

    I am in a rush – will return to the topic.

    Possible shift in willingness of Uk govt to continue to support NI

    Possible shift as young Unionists and Nationalists recognise the financial advantages of joining Ireland.

  44. S THOMAS
    “Back in the day we were so unintelligent that only 1 or 2 out of the year group achieved a first class honours degree. now i read that in some institutions the students have become so intelligent compared to us that up to 40% achieve first class degrees on a regular basis.This leap in intelligence must be due to receiving less tuition and guidance than we did and eating more blueberries.I cannot think of any other explanation for it.”

    Especially considering some of our esteemed seats of learning have managed the feat in a matter of just 5 years or so. E.g. the University of Bradford has gone from a mere 10.3% [of firsts awarded] to 27.6% between 2010/11 and 2015/16. Or howabout the University of Wales Trinity Saint David which only managed to triple the % of firsts awarded from 7.1% to 22.2% in the same 5 year period. Truly awesome improvements there. Our degree system is second to none. Or is that first to none?

    The above facts and more can be seen on the BBC here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-40654933

  45. @Jim Jam “You seem to think (sorry if I am wrong) that most or many are duped Labour supporting youngsters (recent graduates and current students paying the £9K+ perhaps their parents) some of whom would have voted differently.”

    My points were made to dispute the assertion that the Labour campaign was “principled”. I didn’t get into whether or not there was a lift in VI and I agree with what you and Analyst have written.

  46. Can we please stop going on about the tuition debt row? It’s a non-story, onto which people are projecting their own views,

  47. @OLLYT Sooner or later the ambivalence will have to stop and it could get cleared up at Conference in the autumn. Given that the evidence suggests the majority of Labour voters members and MPs are pro-EU and an even bigger majority anti-hard Brexit it’s not difficult to imagine which side they will come down on eventually.

    If only it was that simple for Labour! They shored up their heartlands in the Midlands and North during the GE with a promise to end FOM and to deliver Brexit. If you have been paying attention to the statements and questions in the House after the election you’ll have noticed a large number of Labour MPs from those areas pushing a tough line on this.

  48. Conference is going to be way too busy with the leadership election amendment to worry too much about the single market.

    It’s the Labour Party way – If in doubt, fight internally about things that the public couldn’t care less about.

  49. @Barny “I bet a tenner on Leadsom to be PM on the assumption that if it got as far as the Tory membership they’d go for the hardest right option.
    I still think it was a worthwhile bet.”

    Agreed. It’s an astute bet.

  50. @Sea Change

    After a decade under Cameron the membership were screaming out for someone less liberal.

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