Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Standard has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. This is MORI’s first poll since the general election, and like other companies now shows Labour with a small lead over the Conservatives. Fieldwork was Friday to Tuesday. As far as I can tell, the methodology is back to MORI’s usual methods, as they were using before the election campaign. Full details are here.

To update on other voting intention polls earlier this week, ICM for the Guardian on Tuesday had voting intentions of CON 42%(+1), LAB 43%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 3%(nc). Fieldwork was over the weekend, and changes were from a fortnight ago. Full tabs for that are here.

Finally YouGov for the Times, which was released on Monday but conducted last week, had topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 45%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 2%. Tabs for that are here.


1,533 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 41, LAB 42, LD 9, UKIP 3”

1 2 3 4 5 31
  1. NB) Aren’t Malta in the EU with English as one of their 2 official languages?

  2. TOH

    “If you cannot see what is wrong with the EU’s demand for the ECJ having a role in how we treat people living in this country after we have left the EU then I give up, your love of Euroland is beyond reason.”

    People from other EU countries who live here currently have their rights enshrined in the ECJ. If that is changed to British laws, that can be changed by a British govt at any time unilaterally then they no longer have the same level of security as they do now and will not be equal to British Nats who enjoy the protection of the ECJ in other countries.

    If you cannot see the unfair nature of that then I give up too.

  3. TOH

    “If you cannot see what is wrong with the EU’s demand for the ECJ having a role in how we treat people living in this country after we have left the EU then I give up, your love of Euroland is beyond reason.”

    People from other EU countries who live here currently have their rights enshrined in the ECJ. If that is changed to British laws, that can be changed by a British govt at any time unilaterally then they no longer have the same level of security as they do now and will not be equal to British Nats who enjoy the protection of the ECJ in other countries.

    If you cannot see the unfair nature of that then I give up too.

  4. Baldbloke and RHuckle
    Wasn’t me who said about ‘interminable ramblings’ re Brexit, I was merely congratulating Cambridge Rachel on offering something else to consider.
    I did use the phrase ‘Trench Warfare’ for the exchanges between S Thomas and whoever was taking up the cudgels on the other side.

  5. Cambridge Rachel

    I don’t know about the Cons Brexit strategy. The media is talking about a (newly found) recognition of the need for a transitional period. There is no indication of what that might mean. The government position is that it will leave the EEA at the point of Brexit. I sometimes wonder which is getting the upper hand – the crash out supporters or the Hammond supporters.

    Saffer NI could be granted some sort of special status which would not involve leaving the Single Markrt.

  6. Cambridge Rachel

    I don’t know about the Cons Brexit strategy. The media is talking about a (newly found) recognition of the need for a transitional period. There is no indication of what that might mean. The government position is that it will leave the EEA at the point of Brexit. I sometimes wonder which is getting the upper hand – the crash out supporters or the Hammond supporters.

    Saffer NI could be granted some sort of special status which would not involve leaving the Single Markrt.

  7. Baldbloke

    “But now the brexit negotiations are onto the details its fascinating. One thing all the detailed discussion on post-brexit EU citizens rights (in the UK) and UK citizens right (in the EU) shows – to me anyway – is that the UK government was quite right all along to not unilaterally guarantee EU citizens rights in the post-brexit UK as many opposition parties were clamouring for pre-GE.”

    This was supposed to be the easy bit that the govt said they would settle quickly to calm people’s nerves. Two sets of meetings and we seem as bogged down as ever. Just goes to show what a can of worms Brexit is. Meeting only 4 days per month – at that rate we might have sorted the residency issue by 2019.

    What an unnecessary diversion from tackling the real problems in our society that caused some people to vote leave.

    RJW

    Sorry to keep on with the interminable babbling – but for the next two years at least, Brexit is the only show in town.

  8. UKPR at night seems to have turned into a forum for Spokespersons of the European Union-UK Place des Resters !

    A few thoughts from a UK point of view:-

    Comparisons between “International Courts” and ECJ don’t assist Mr Barnier’s case-they make the point that , where inter-state resolution is required & appropriate, the courts of either party are not appropriate vehicles for it.

    The EU proposal that UK Citizens in EU countries acquire continuing rights restricted to the country they reside in seems to be a response to UK’s proposal that EU Citizens’ rights here will revert to those of UK Citizens if the EU Citizen has left UK for a specified period & wishes to return. Reports suggest this is a carrot for mutual compromise ( called a bargaining chip I believe). UK claims the EU offer is discriminatory since EU citizens would have the right to work & live in all 27 member States.

    EU demands that its citizens in UK can marry non-EU citizens & bring them here without restriction in perpetuity.-a greater entitlement than UK Citizens have.

    UK offers EU Citizens their current voting rights-ie UK local elections but not Westminster. EU offers UK Citizens no voting rights locally.

    Barnier wants DD to agree to a total of Financial obligations. DD is wary of an “algorithm” which can be construed as a total. UK wants to agree line by line on basic principles & facts. UK considers this area as one of significant leverage.

    I love the comparisons being drawn between Barnier & Davis. They were so evident on TV yesterday.

    Barnier the tall erect , crisp suited male model type , all French hauteur & verbose superiority……….and Davis- short, stooped crumpled retired boxer with few words & a cheeky grin.

    Says so much about our respective nations :-)

  9. TONYBTG
    as I said up Fred, it was nae me re ‘interminable ramblings’, I was objecting to repetition of established positions i.e. ‘Trench Warfare’ . By all means ramble on if it’s a new point.
    Agree Brexit v.imp, but not quite only show in town?
    7 out of 10 maybe, as Jezza put it.

  10. RJW,
    ” there ain’t no room for the LDs, or much point to them”

    If labour had adopted an clearly leave stance at the recent election they would have lost, the tories would have won and the libs done better. The libs problem is that there re currently two remain parties, and they are seen generally s the worse bet. If labour starts to wholeheartedly support Brexit, expect to see its vote share falling and libs rising.

    Mayyers are of course complicated by the current propaganda war over whether there is such a thing as soft Brexit, and if so whether it counts as leaving or remaining.

  11. ………….Valéry Giscard d’Estaing vs Henry Cooper :-) :-) :-)

  12. @ Baldbloke

    Thanks for the non-brexit post. Excellent topic for discussion, but sticking to immediate effects on polling, on this one:

    “Would save 3 years wasted for many students and they need not then be lumbered with a debt they can never repay. And they get back 3 years of their lives to do something more useful.”

    I think the main problem would be that there would be an immediate increase in unemployment figures by about 1.5 million. Not sure that would be popular!

  13. Danny
    The things you point to didn’t happen, Lab adopted the policy of ‘masterly ambiguity ‘ re Brexit and it worked.
    My point re the LDs was more based on their coalition activities poisoning any chance of a revival under Cable. Normal people, i.e. Not political obsessives like like us, will just see voting LD as the equivalent of voting Tory, except in the veryfew niche seats that they are currently a good second behind the Tories. Might be a bit different up in Scotland, but not much.

  14. Perhaps Euro discussions could be left to when a Euro poll, attitudes to Brexit, options etc is released and posted by Anthony.

    I thought the Saltire Thread rule worked pretty well and was respected by indy supporters and unionist alike pretty much?

    Some other polls will reasonably feed in such as next PM/Tory leader as clearly their attitudes to Brexit are a factor but hopefully common sense will prevail.

    An attempt, for example, to link increasing or decreasing PM doing a good job ratings to her Brexit negotiations to get round the rule would be naughty in my opinion.

    I am a mere poster and of course have no authority but I do fear we are losing some non Brexit obsessed contributors.

    NB) I am very interested in Brexit, negotiations and related matters but not on here as much as it is.

  15. All these polls are fairly consistent…Labour has a growing lead over the Tories.

    We can see why the Tories don’t want to hold a GE any time soon. They don’t want to lose more seats any time soon!

    But the longer they hang on, the worse it will get for the Tories…sooner or later, they’re going to have to bite the bullet, and cut their losses, and accept the inevitable.

  16. @RJW,

    I agree. My sense is that your average observer probably only remembers one thing about Cable: Royal Mail privatisation. Voters on the whole oppose privatisation of public services – even Tory voters, by a small margin. This particular policy went down like a lead balloon*. And according to YouGov, Brexit was not a major factor for those deciding to vote Labour. So I don’t particularly see the appeal of Cable from their perspective.

    *At least, my (largely Tory-voting) relatives aren’t exactly political junkies, and that’s all they think of when they hear his name. It’s certainly fascinating how the most unpopular parts of the coalition’s reforms seem to have been very effectively blamed on the Lib Dems, when these policies were actually Tory policies. Meanwhile, the almost universally-approved policies (lowering of the income tax threshold; same-sex marriage) were credited to the Conservatives when they were actually Liberal Democrat policies at the 2010 election.

  17. @ Jim Jam

    I think that’s one of the big mistakes the Tories made in the last election…thinking that Brexit was the most important issue affecting voters.

    In contrast, Corbyn concentrated on bread-and-butter issues, such s the NHS, zero-hours contracts, minimum wage, etc.

    For people who are struggling to make ends meet after seven years of Tory austerity, those are the issues that matter more than Brexit. And we saw that during the election campaign…Theresa May with her focus on Brexit went downhill, while Corbyn with his focus on workers and working conditions, went up. Corbyn gained seats, May lost seats.

    And now Brexit is just adding to May’s woes in opinion polls now….

  18. @ Analyst

    My daughter supported the Lb Dems in 2010, and she felt betrayed when Nick Clegg jumped into bed with the Tories. She has never supported the Lib Dems since….

    Voters like her are not interested in separating Lib Dem policies from Tory policies during the Con-Dem coalition. They lost support the moment they agreed to accept the Tory blood money.

    Cable is going to find it very difficult to overcome the toxic brand that the Lib Dems became after 2010….

  19. Interesting analysis of recent polls here

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40667874

    can we start talking about them again: whilst Brexit is interesting, the entrenched position of committed posters on here isn’t. Its a bit like two people with opposite views arguing in the pub, each twists the others arguments and restates them in order to knock the others point down: I get the impression that the old phrase “dialogue of the deaf” is appropriate given its original meaning, but I am quite clear those with hearing difficulties are far more adept at communicating effectively than the posters I refer to.

  20. Regarding Brexit, I feel like the discussions here don’t really go anywhere. It’s just one side spinning events to suit their narrative, then the other side doing the same. Nobody’s being convinced of anything new. And it’s somewhat unpleasant.

    We can spin as much as we like. But polling lays bare several facts:

    1) The population remains split pretty much evenly on the issue;
    2) Although support for ‘soft’ Brexit might be growing, the movements are currently small if they are indeed real;
    3) Where there is a clear majority in terms of views, it is that the Government is handling the issue badly. If this remains to be the case, the extent that this could impinge on support for Brexit more broadly is yet unclear.

    We all have our views. But however strongly we hold them, we can occasionally be wrong. If we all show some humility and willingness to accept that we don’t have everything figured out, and that we don’t actually know how things will unfold, discussions might become more fruitful and honest, rather than merely partisan.

    Alternatively, this is a polling site that was supposed to be non-partisan, so avoiding the topic beyond polling would also be nice. It is difficult to not display and partisanship when talking about polling, of course, but there’s a difference between providing an honest analysis which recognises the potential faults with their argument, and one which merely intends to tribally support their own view, irrespective of evidence. I don’t see the point in discussing polls if we’re just going to see what we want to see in them.

  21. @oldnat

    My model does try to extrapolate from the crossbreaks, by taking a long term average for all regions of the uk, and adjusting to match the current national picture.

    When fed the right national result for the last election it worked pretty well.

    We’ve not had anywhere near enough polls since the election to get a good picture of the crossbreaks yet though, so my model still weights the election results pretty heavily at a regional level.

  22. @oldnat

    And trying to project anything from a single poll is foolish, doubly so for trying to do so from the crossbreaks of a single poll.

  23. @Micheal Siva,

    I understand the argument your daughter would make, and there’s no inconsistency there.

    But think about those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 and Tory in 2015. This was probably at least 5-6% or so of voters. Why did they do it? If it was out of disapproval for the Liberal Democrats role in the coalition, it would make little sense for them to swing Tory, as the Tories are the party which generally forced the Liberal Democrat MPs to vote for policies they disagreed with. Out of the frying pan, and into the fire, you might say.

    e.g. if you disapprove of the Liberal Democrats supporting the increase in tuition fees, why would you then vote Tory as a result, when it was them who wanted the change? Just seems a bit odd. Perhaps it was a sense that the Tories were the real ‘government’ and to get them back in you had to vote Tory, not LD. But clearly the government they got back afterwards was rather different to the coalition. Alternatively, their vote for the LDs may previously just have been a protest vote, and decided they weren’t too keen on them after all, and just swung Tory as it was the party that best fit their views otherwise.

    Interesting thought: imagine if some of those 2010 LD -> 2015 Tory switchers stuck with the LDs in 2015, and there were, say, 20-30 Lib Dem MPs, mostly at the Tories’ expense, leading them to continue the coalition. There would probably never have been an EU referendum, DC would still be PM, UKIP would probably still be around….

  24. @Analyst

    Yes, the Lib Dems proved a very useful shield for the Tories in coalition, taking the brunt of the abuse on tuition fees, austerity and royal mail, while the Tories took the acclaim for the more popular policies the Lib Dems forced onto the agenda.

    They also acted as a stabilizing factor, as the last two _eventful_ years have shown. As Cable said in his victory speech, they’re the ones who provided Strong and Stable Government…

    Nevertheless, Cable is certainly tainted by association, though he does have the rare knack of actually sounding like he knows what he’s talking about when speaking.

    He’s sensible, moderate and experienced – three things modern Britain doesn’t want.

  25. Barny
    Sensible, moderate and experienced Vince may be all of these things. However, the only reason he’s leader is that nobody else wanted to pick up this (very) poisoned chalice. He may assert that he’s not s caretaker leader. But everybody knows that’s exactly what he is.

  26. @RJW

    Absolutely. Jo Swinson will be leader sooner rather than later. My understanding is that there is already a deal in place.

  27. Anyway, to break with tradition and discuss polling, YouGov recently asked an interesting question:

    “In negotiating Britain’s departure from the European Union, do you think our government should offer EU citizens the right to travel, work, study or retire in Britain, in exchange for EU countries giving British citizens the same rights?”

    69% were in favour, including 60% of Leave voters.

    Most people are in favour on free movement, as long as you explain it to them.

  28. Regards LDem 2010 -> Tory 2015 switchers, I know/knew a few of them in Sutton and Carshalton. None of them are deep political thinkers!

    There were two things they said to me that drove their decision in 2015:
    – fear of Labour teaming up with SNP
    – that the Tories in Coalition had showed they were more moderate than previously and so could be trusted in government on their own.

    Regardless of the merits of these positions (the second seems pretty logically dubious to me!) they were persuasive to the four folks that I know switched.

    I’m not in touch with two of them any more, but the two I do still talk to both stayed Tory in 2017 despite some disquiet as they were spooked by Corbyn who they think is a commie in disguise. Both are pretty strong Remainers incidentally…

  29. @Barny

    Depends if they understood the question exactly. When I first read that I assumed it was asking about EU citizens already in the UK.

  30. @Analyst

    Bravo for your post “Regarding Brexit,…” The biased postings on this site are rapidly reducing it to the standard of many newspaper BTL comments. It has reached the point for me that when I see certain usernames, I simply scroll past their comments because I know that it is a waste of time reading them when they are just repeating what they have said so many times before.

    I would much rather have just one page of reasoned comments like yours than have to wade through ten pages of dross to find them.

  31. Barny: “Most people are in favour on free movement, as long as you explain it to them.”

    From what I recall of previous polling, that seems to be the case with most aspects of EU life, when the reciprocity of the particular policy and its benefits for Brits is explained.

    One consistent finding of pan-European polling that I recall is that the degree of favourability to the EU is positively correlated with knowledge of what it does and how it works. Needless (perhaps) to say, Brits had the lowest level of knowledge on these things, and the least favourable attitudes.

    One sees evidence of this even in the rarefied environment of UKPR: a low boredom threshold when it comes to detailed discussion of matters EU and Brexit. I apologise if, from time to time, I contribute to that boredom. But some of us have a hard-to-suppress urge to shine the light of reality into the dark corners where misconception-based attitudes lurk. Anyway, I find the to-and-fro both informative and entertaining. One learns a lot about how others think and see things.

  32. @sthomas

    As @patrickbrian has pointed out you once again fail to understand the issue.

  33. Some people were talking about what went wrong for the LD’s at the last election here’s my POV

    As a person who voted Lib-Dem his entire life (even at 11 in 1997 when my school ran a mock election). I also voted remain (unsurprisingly).

    For much of my political life I’ve been hoping for the end of labour so that the LDs could one day become the main party of the left (I know big dreams right?!)

    I switched to the reds for the first time in 2017 Why? The reason is mostly tactical.

    1) Corbyn was impressive at campaigning and put out a manifesto I could 50 per cent get behind. (Though the Libs were an 80 percent)
    2) The Tories wanted extreme power to push through a hard Brexit.

    I believe that after the indecisive referendum the government were right to pursue Brexit… but not at the total ignorance, hatred and disdain of the 48 percent. And it was this that pushed me to switch.

    The Libs were never going to win. At best they might’ve gotten 15 – 20 percent of the vote? But Labour might just manage to hang the parliament.

    As for what Vince can do for the Libs, I think he needs to focus on winning back the southwest. He is the best man the libs have. I still dream of the Liberal comeback.

  34. @COLIN

    Is not the problem that the EU is a supranational entity and the UK is a national entity so does this make for something unprecedented in term of an agreement.

    I would presume much of the fear in terms of protection of citizens rights is that the UK’s main issue is that of migration and EU’s is commonality of purpose having a set of consistent rules. Because of the UK concerns we have had many laws which have changed certain groups national status/rights for example my mum came to the Uk on a British passport in the 60s and was seen as a Uk citizen until in the 1980s it was changed and she had to pay moe money to become something that she was before. I think that having ECJ rule over this would make more sense to the EU considering past views. Your sitting PM having regualr dinners with the person that writes Judges are enemies of the people and the weak response to it by governmetn main judiciary minister and the PM does raise eyebrows. Even if we think of it as hyperbole.

    Now I am not sure what/how it is solved but the issue is not as simple as I fear people had projected it to be.

    @ANALYST
    I am not sure that anyone is spinnings as much as stating opinions. As we don on all polls. Some of the thing are insightful, some less so I feel we should be able to see the wheat from the chaff. Some of the opinions are sometimes completely wrong in terms of facts so it is often good to clear them up.

    As to people views: I personally campaigned for remain, in the main my argument for leave the EU is that we are not happy to belong it does not suite us as a country and we have always had a negative view of it. My hope is that by leaving we start to blame the people for the failures of this country ourselves and the government we vote for. Some of this is actually an emotional response more than one of facts. The argument of taking back control is a seductive one and hard to counter but with evidence of what we have done with the control we have and that bring a real conflict. Take any issue, I normally use Fishing quotas. often the problem is not EU policy but the Uk’s implementation of such policy. partly due to the structure of our services/rules but when you talk to fishermen and ask what happened to the quotas they will tell you they were often sold to the highest bidder and the small UK fishermen got outbidded. Only the UK allocated the quotas in that manner I am led to believe.

    @BIGFATRON
    The battle of the 2015 election was between the Liberal Democrats and the Tories. The majority was basically made up of Tory gains from the LD in the south West
    Labour and the Tories battled themselves to a standstill and the SNP played a blinder which may have helped the tories in the South West but I would say two things hurt LD, firstly they did not portray their time in government as a difficult one. There was sense of unity with the Tories which seemed to suggest they were invisible and they agreed with Tory party policy on austerity and blaming the Labour party for 2008 GFC which pretty much again blurred the lines. No one could tell what their policies were and the reinvention of the Tories was helped by the lack of distinctiveness or indeed the lack if anything to show for the LD being in government.

    The best example of this is Gay marriage: more Tory MP voted against the bill than in favour of it but it is seen as a Tory government thing and more over we spend more time quizzing Farron about his views of gay marriage.

    Simply put in 2015 the narrative was actually led by media that the Tories were good there was no real schism in the party and indeed they had made any popular policies their own, ably assisted by much of the press.

    2017 was much harder due to 3 reasons.

    1. Corbyn was normally ignored by the media, except for looking at areas where they could find conflict, they were ably assisted by labour blairites, Kueesenburg being blamed for bad media is overblown MPs came to her with a scoop of resignation on air who would not have taken it.

    The narrative that the media takes often defines what the battle is. The EU referendum was seen as much a blue on blue affair rather than what does the EU do for us and is it worth it. There was little real analysis because leaving was vague (form EEA to WTO)
    Corbyn was actually ignored and he travelled up and down the country did many rallies and meeting and yet the view is that he was not in favour of remaining.

    2. May made it about the personalities: If you do that then you end up scrutinising personalities. Corbyn comes across well because of the impartiality of the broadcast media. So most of the positions he has taken can be compared to those of others. Far from being portrayed as an extremist he was seen as more rational, The fallon interview where he rubbished something said by BoJo basically was a epitome of that issue. he turned out that if you listened to him he had something to say by contrast thr Tories had nothing to say

    3. Austerity forever: our economic situation would suggest if you accept the narrative that not only do we need to keep cutting the budget but we need many years of surplus to make things right (a lowering of debt to GDP ratio) I fear that people are not buying that any more and it seems that the belt tightening that some people have had to suffer has become more real

    I expect the polls to be close and the real issue will be the budget. brexit will be less important than people think not because of what we think but more importantly because it will be a done deal and Labour and the other main parties influence is very small.

    As to the small parties I think the SNP is suffering the problems of being in government promising that they can change things and finding out the limits of being able to change thing without borrowing powers. They also made the mistake of not talking about austerity being imposed because of their situation

    The Liberal democrats to my mind have missed the boat betting on Remainers to flock to them was rather shortsighted and indeed they could only sit on the sideline in terms of the debate on austerity since they were the authors of it with the Tories.

    I think due to the fact that two party politics has returned I fear that the smaller parties are going to be squeezed hard.

    The more interesting thing is will the media get bored of Corbyn being good and will the narratives on people stick: Abbott being a bumbling idiot as an example

  35. TONYBTG
    “If you cannot see the unfair nature of that then I give up too.”

    No it’s not unfair at all since equally the EU could change its immigration laws at any time. Indeed there has been some discussion on this matter already due to the huge immigrant flow into southern Europe.

    As we will be no longer in the EU and it would be ridiculous for the ECJ to have power above the UK Supreme Court. Imagine saying to America that it had to accept another organisations Court over the US Supreme Court. It’s an absolute nonsense and really insulting to the UK to even suggest it.

    If you still don’t like it, I personally would be happy with Patrick Brian’s suggestion if the EU is not prepared to move its position but I am aware this would not suit a lot of people here and in the EU and hopefully it won’t come to that.

    Patrick said
    “EU citizens here are allowed to remain in the country they have settled in subject to whatever immigration law the sovereign UK decides to apply to them.

    UK citizens in Europe are allowed to remain in the country they have settled in subject to whatever immigration laws the separate sovereign states of Europe individually decide to apply to them.”

    This is exactly what happens elsewhere in the World.

    Fortunately this discussion is just theoretical as the government is not prepared to accept the ECJ, thank god.

  36. PLANKY

    Interesting post, I like your style. What you want is certainly not at all what I want but we all have our dreams and certainly entitled to yours.

  37. @Planky,

    Interesting post, thanks.

    Agree that Cable needs to work on the South West, seems the natural place to start. Lots of former voters that could potentially be clawed back, but the tricky issue is that many of them probably voted for Brexit. I feel like their stance on this issue has to change since most of the seats the LDs lost in 2015 were in areas that voted heavily to leave. It’s difficult though because they’ve now built their image around being an emphatically pro-EU party. Rocks and hard places come to mind.

    One thing that must have annoyed the LDs is that there were half a dozen seats in the last election* (Richmond Park, St Ives, Cheltenham, Devon North, Cheadle, St Albans) where the LDs came very close to taking a few seats from the Tories, but the (generally low) Labour vote in these seats increased substantially, meaning the Labour vote was far more than was needed to take the LDs over the line.

    *Interestingly enough, had these 6 seats turned, the current government (inc DUP votes) would have a working majority of just 1, making another election much more likely.

  38. @ Michael Siva and Analyst

    ‘Cable is going to find it very difficult to overcome the toxic brand that the Lib Dems became after 2010….’

    The 2017 constituency results seem to reflect exactly that. It fascinates me how similar the numbers voting LD in 2017 and 2015…. often there are only 10s of votes difference (e.g. Hertsmere 2015 LD vote = 2777; 2017 = 2794)… surely they must be the same loyal LD voters?

    However, it may well be that I’m seeing a pattern because the numbers of LD votes are relatively small in each constituency … on average only a couple of thousand.

    The other thing is that in London, for the most part, the LD vote did not collapse as fully in 2015 as it seemed to have done in other parts of E&W … so there was still room to fall in 2017. Whatever, the explanation, there was precious little sign of a LD bounce …. apart from the obvious exceptions :)

  39. @ Analyst

    ‘One thing that must have annoyed the LDs is that there were half a dozen seats in the last election* (Richmond Park, St Ives, Cheltenham, Devon North, Cheadle, St Albans) where the LDs came very close to taking a few seats from the Tories, but the (generally low) Labour vote in these seats increased substantially, meaning the Labour vote was far more than was needed to take the LDs over the line.’

    That was certainly true in my LD/Tory marginal …. and a bit of a surprise because I’m quite sure that many former Labour voters voted LD tactically (as they had prior to 2015).

    However, there was a 4k increase in turnout that I suspect went overwhelmingly to Labour ….. so new or DK/WV who may not have realised the potential to replace the Conservative MP. The figures more or less tally ….. the Ukip vote went Tory; the former Green vote and at least half the former Labour vote went to the LD but the Labour vote still increased on 2015.

    The local LDs were very cross.

  40. TOH: ” I personally would be happy with Patrick Brian’s suggestion ”

    I think what you may have missed is that Patrick was summarising the EU counter-proposal.

    Nevertheless, good to hear that you find the EU’s proposal acceptable.

  41. https://blog.bestforbritain.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Best-for-Britain-Survey-Results_170627_Immigration.pdf

    Looking at this I can see why voters may not be seen as consistent we seem to want free movement of labour

  42. Somerjohn
    “But some of us have a hard-to-suppress urge to shine the light of reality into the dark corners where misconception-based attitudes lurk. “

    That’s exactly my mission, but I’m less long winded about it than some.

    Hireton

    I certainly understand. As you can see from my recent post I’m perfectly happy with Patrick’s suggestion on dealing with the immigration issue. If it has to be that way due to EU intransigence then so be it.

    Michael Silva
    “ All these polls are fairly consistent…Labour has a growing lead over the Tories.”

    Really? You clearly have a different set of polls could you share them with us please it would be better than the endless repetition of Brexit arguments. The latest polls I have show the following:
    YouGov 5/6 July Lab ahead by 8%
    YouGov 10/11 Lab ahead by 5%
    Opinium 11/14 Lab ahead by 2%
    Survation 14/15 Lab ahead by 3%
    ICM 14/16 Lab ahead by 1%
    IpsosMori 20 Lab ahead by 1%
    I suggest that reflects a decline in the Labour lead.

    JIMJAM
    “Perhaps Euro discussions could be left to when a Euro poll, attitudes to Brexit, options etc is released and posted by Anthony.”
    I would be very happy to abide by that as long as everybody else does. It would save me time apart from anything else.

    Excellent suggestion.

  43. It’s hardly surprising that newly-enthused and/or former non-voters in LD-Tory marginals had no interest in voting tactically for LD, when presumably it was the Corbyn factor firing them up to vote in the first place.

    They’re probably also less likely to have the constituency knowledge of more politically-savvy seasoned voters, who’d be more aware of the local tactical situation.

    In FPTP systems, these type of new voters are a rather blunt force, with a relatively dispersed and limited impact until their numbers become overwhelming.

  44. Somerjohn

    “Nevertheless, good to hear that you find the EU’s proposal acceptable.”

    I haven’t seen all the detail from yesterday yet, so I did not know that. If it came from the EU negotiators. I find it surprising since they are supposed to be representing the 27 other states as a whole in these negotiations not individually.

    However I personally am happy to along with that if that’s what takes to get rid of the ECJ as far as the UK immigration laws are concerned. So that should please you. I assume you’re happy with the EU’s proposal as well.

  45. PTRP

    @”Is not the problem that the EU is a supranational entity and the UK is a national entity so does this make for something unprecedented in term of an agreement.”

    I don’t know if it is unprecedented-it would certainly seem so.

    But I don’t think that is the problem-no. I think part of the problem is to be found in mind set on both sides. Barnier said in the Q&A session that it ( EU citizens rights) was a matter of “law” & then proceeded to place it in the context of EU law. ie he sees the issue as one of continuity under EU Law. I feel sure that the UK side see it as accommodating EU Citizens in UK ‘ under UK Law once we have left the jurisdiction of EU Law.

  46. TOH: “That’s exactly my mission”

    And that’s exactly why some of us press you for the facts and explanations that may justify your oft-restated opinions.

    Let’s try you (probably in both senses) with an example:

    You have often stated that, in economic terms, you expect tat after a full Brexit you expect short-term pain to followed by long-term gain.

    That presumably means that you see growth in the UK’s non-EU trade replacing the loss in EU trade that you accept will happen. If so, with which markets do you expect to see this rapid growth occurring, and in which area of goods and services? And do you expect that our exports to these markets will grow faster than our imports from them, as a result of new trade deals?

  47. @COLIN,
    I presumed you read the rest of my post regarding why I think it becomes harder to accept, due to the UK changing it rules oon nationality, for people previously regarded as british. There was even the case of a black royal marine from Barbados, have only had a British passport having to reapply for his british citizenship.

    So I fear that part of the idea is some form of guarantee under international law. I also think that there is a fear that there will be no agreement so I would have thought the idea of taking the rights as separate would make sense

    Citizenship can be a thorny issue. But I think that EU and it expanded rights has always been a difficult issue for the UK.

    Do I think that what is offered by the UK fair. Persoanlly I it is less than what EU citizen have at the moment. and I am not sure how the EU can reciprocate.

    I would have said that The current set of EU citizen could keep their rights but any future citizens would may not have them. This limits the rights issue. to a few million it is pretty ugly but then EU citizenship rights could be extended to all UK immigrants in the EU too without any issue.

    The ECJ issue is one I think could be conceded by the EU if they believe that EU citizens are not ‘discriminated’ against.

    As to the EU changing it laws on external immigration, I believe that they have some visa free travel with some countries but the migration issue in to Southern EU states is a combination of economic migration and refugees and we seem to be conflating these with our own issue of brexit which I believe is wrong

  48. Looks like there has been a outbreak of realism in the Tory ranks the more ardent brexiteers seem to be coming round to a longer transition period ,threats of putting up a candidate to stand against May beginning to fade . The polls closing to within a fag paper difference and Corbyns dreams of being in power by the end of summer looking as unlikely as Abbot ever knowing the cost of anything she’s talking about.
    I’m beginning to think that May has a good chance of being in power till she wants to stand down rather than when she’s told.

  49. SOMERJOHN

    “I notice you have not replied to the question in my recent reply to you”. Are you happy with the suggested arrangement, made by the EU? Incidentally, I meant to add that of course if the suggestion comes from the EU and some people in the UK don’t like it, they will tend to blame the EU.

    I see you are again asking me to get into a long speculative debate explaining why I believe we will be better outside than in. If I produced a detailed answer to that question which would take a long time, you would then produce a detailed response disagreeing with my suggestions. It would all be speculation because there cannot be “fact based answers” to the question, any more than you could produce “fact based rebuttals”. It’s pointless because at this moment in time the outcome of us leaving the EU is a matter of “belief” as even you admitted in one of your posts. I believe one thing you believe the opposite but at least I have suggested a date (2030) when we can sensibly debate in detail how things are going after we have left.

    Even then we could well get moderated as this is not a site for detailed economic debates as AW has often said.

  50. @SOMERJOHN

    In fairness nobody know what will happen when we leave, we can only guess. However If Germany left the EU one would presume that it will still sell goods across the world because historically it has been doing that over time.

    What the a lot of leavers are suggesting is that this will allow or shock depending on your view into making a set of changes that our government has not had to change. Hence the argument of a down turn and then a much brighter future

    My view is somewhat more jaded, we as a country have been making a success of debt fuelled consumer led growth, with poor investment and mismatched skills. If we are claiming a success of getting the chinese to pay the french to build a nuclear power station that we then pay over the odds for the electricity for then brexit will not change that. However it may spark a review of how we make the economy work better. how we invest in industry and innovation how we can make the leap from innovation to making the the stuff. More importantly I think we will find that no FTA make the goods and services that people want to buy from us and hence like you I find the problem of Brexit not so much how and why of Brexit but the how of making brexit a success.

1 2 3 4 5 31