Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Standard has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. This is MORI’s first poll since the general election, and like other companies now shows Labour with a small lead over the Conservatives. Fieldwork was Friday to Tuesday. As far as I can tell, the methodology is back to MORI’s usual methods, as they were using before the election campaign. Full details are here.

To update on other voting intention polls earlier this week, ICM for the Guardian on Tuesday had voting intentions of CON 42%(+1), LAB 43%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 3%(nc). Fieldwork was over the weekend, and changes were from a fortnight ago. Full tabs for that are here.

Finally YouGov for the Times, which was released on Monday but conducted last week, had topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 45%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 2%. Tabs for that are here.

1,533 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 41, LAB 42, LD 9, UKIP 3”

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  1. Obvious HTML fail is obvious. It’s ages since I did that.

    (Only the first para is CR’s)

  2. COLIN
    JC, whatever his views on the EU and commitment to the results of the referendum, has a stronger commitment to Conference and to a collective leadership.
    What is primarily a statement of a personal view does not give the next Labour Government ( under him) ” a free hand to install a Protectionist Industrial strategy free from the meddling interference of the EU Commission.” – which is far removed from Labour’s image of Europe or its commitmemt to a freedom of movement under UK access to the Single Market, and there is no appetite in the party or in Corbyn’s predominantly young remainer support for it. The issue will certainly become clearer at Conference, where we may see the emergence of a clearer movement for remain.

    There were two processes which could be labelled enclosure in Kenya, but neither in the historic UK model: one was the allocation of land in the fertile highlands to white UK and South Africam commercial farmers,, added to for strategic purposes in areas such as Kericho as a buffer between the Kalenjin and Gusii. A significant aspect of the agrarian and political system was the imposition of tribal areas and policed boundaries around tribal areas preventing movement between tribal areas put in place I think from the pre-WW1 set up of the colonial administration.
    The other (with which I have a more intimate knowledge) has been a mainly spontaneous internal enclosure of family farms throughout the Kalenjin tribal areas (Kericho, Nandi, Eldoret,, Sabei etc on the west of the Rift Valley from Trans-Mara right up to the Uganda border, which came about because of the introduction of oxen and plough traction fxor maize production for sale on a national market supplying the labour forces of the white farming areas, army, police and the cities, and locally with the introduction also of small water mills, replacing finger millet as the basic food grain and for beer making.
    What might also interest you was the defeat of a 1961 proposal for a land inheritance law based on single inheritance as part of land law package as a result of research on family farm systems demonstratng “pre-mortem” division of lands to wivesand son’s wives as basic to household land allocation and production systems – and of asocial stability, which would have been replaced with severe conflict,, reminiscent of the Mau Mau which had ensued a decade earlier from a similar clash between modern farming systems and traditional land rights among the Kikuyu Embu and Meru.

  4. @COLIN, which laws need changing?

  5. Hireton

    Agreed no analogy is perfect. All scenarios are different. There are aspects in common, and aspects not in common.

    People of goodwill will seize on the aspects in common to develop a template and work from there. People of bad will will seize on the aspects not in common to create problems and (fail to) work from there. There’s little evidence of the former here.

    Polling suggests a sizeable chunk of remain voters who are minded to the “decion made we lost make the best of it” position. Not the easiest thing to poll accurately, but around 1 in 5 people seem to fall in the category when a pollster tries to assess it.

    If it were my place to advise them, I’d say that those who seek to slow, mitigate or reverse the process of leaving might do well to pick their battles, because they need to win these voters back if there is to be any prospect of the clear and apparent sustained swing in public opinion without which neither main party will have reason to change policy and neither back bench awkward squad will have the political cover to make it do so.

    For me at least, as someone who probably identifies to some degree with that ill defined category, they’re singularly failing to do this at present. And in doing so playing into the hands of those who want the hardest and most fractious of separations. Perhaps it’s Umunna who is the closet leaver after all. His actions seem to me to make it far more certain to come to pass than his leader’s position does.

  6. @PETERW

    What would change your mind. My view is that for those that say wait and see are essentially saying we can get back in the EU boat at any time. However if you look at the polls in the EU most of them see a hardening of attitude by Europeans.

    y view as a reaminer is that it is a lost cause now because we are unable to say as a country we have made a mistake. I do not see the UK electorate backing down because in many ways we have been put on a war footing. The Narrow victory is seen as absolutism one way or the other and many people are giving their gloss of what the referendum means and what it represents.

    My view is that There is nothing that anyone could do to make this different there is no way to spin it. Think about the invasion of Iraq. The slow realisation of things not being what some people thought they were we will be led down a path where we just accept it was a crap decision and move on.

  7. The Irish Problem

    The Irish border issue has become the” alamo” for remainers.Hold the Alamo and they can stop brexit. BZ and Sam are the Crockett and Bowie of the battle.
    It is desperate stuff.And under what authority did the roi delegate negotiating any changes toAgreement to the EU. ?

  8. @oldnat

    Agree but the issue is that the DUP does not want NI to be treated as a micro state or indeed a piece of fudge!


    I think you are simply ignoring the underlying political realities of NI. Resorting to appeals to “goodwill” is somewhat simplistic and naive.

  9. @sthomas

    The Republic of Ireland hasn’t “delegated” anything to the EU, they have simply ensured that their national interest in the border with NI is addressed in the Brexit negotiations. Ireland is also not seeking to change the “agreement”.

  10. Apologies for the tardy replies it has been a busy week and there are still reams of posts to catch up on too!

    @PatrickBrian “Just a query.
    When you say you hope for ” a mutually acceptable withdrawal agreement”, who do you include in the “mutual”. Do you include the 48% who voted Remain, or the 65% who prefer a soft Brexit? Or are you talking about an agreement that is acceptable both to the EU and the Government, with the support of core remainers ?
    I’m not quite clear on this, but it’s an important distinction. Many Leavers give a strong impression that the views of those who voted remain are irrelevant to the process, as is any subsequent change or nuance in public opinion. Which makes it difficult to find common ground.”

    Mutually acceptable would be an agreement that both the EU and the Government can live with that honors the Referendum in terms of control of money, borders and laws after any short transitionary agreement. A decision was taken by the peoples of the UK collectively so trying to split factions up after the fact while interesting I think is unhelpful. Poll after poll does show a decisive majority wish the Government to get on with putting the decision into practice.

    @Charles “Glad to see you back. My impression is that you have not been around for a while.
    I agree with you that Brexit will happen,if only because no one is going to get their act enough together to stop it.
    You once told me that in the end wise heads would prevail and there woudl be a deal that benefits both sides. Do you still think this likely? I don’t. we have to get 27 countries and a number of different bodies to agree, and we ourselves have to be clear about what we want. the probability of all this seems to very low.
    In the long run all this may benefit the EU. It gets rid of its awkward squad. It demonstrates the dire consequences of secession and it takes juicy slices of our financial services, airlne business and so on.
    In the long run we will have to strike trade deals with others. China is an obvious candidate but unlike the Germans for whom it is their major trading partner we have shown little skill in selling to them. Another obvious candidate is the US but I see little joy there. China and the USA together take, i think, about 28% of our exports. The EU takes 44% before one counts their indirect effect on trade deals with other countries. So we would be in a desperately weak position in negotiating with these countries, and the major effect for me is likely to be our increased dependence on the United states. (The proposed TTIP arrangement for policing the agreement seemed to me far worse than any European court. Shades of Paraguay being taken to court for trying to deal with cigarette packaging and the legality of that being policed by lawyers who can earn money by consulting to international firms).
    Anyway I don’t want this. I accept that Brexit will happen (sadly not that it ought to but that’s different). Have you any words of consolation?”

    Thanks for the salutation. I have had a very busy month so haven’t been able to post much, though I endeavour to catch up when I can. To your points. 1) I agree there is still a considerable risk that no deal can happen. Basically, the politics abroad and at home could get in the way. A transition period is necessary in my opinion so they can fudge the bill and give them time to implement a trade agreement with the member states.

    In the plus column, it looks like Merkel will be re-elected and quite possibly go into coalition with the more business friendly conservatives rather than their current partners. In the negative column is the French who are likely to make it as difficult as possible. Historical rivalries don’t die easily.

    2) You rightly state the issues with getting new trade deals. But I would also like to point out how abysmal the EU’s trade negotiations have been. They only have a couple of FTAs with economies outside of the EU in the G20! In fact, the 50 or so agreements the EU has negotiated make up 8% of the world’s GDP. Clearly long-term the opportunity is outside of the EU to strike trade deals. The issue is getting from A to B without doing too much damage to A.

    As to words of consolation. Well depends if you are a glass is half full or half empty type of fella. I believe we will find a way. Change scares people but it also opens up opportunities.

  11. RM, totally agree. It’s completely irrelevant whether JC is for, against or indifferent, his first priority must be to ensure that the Tories own brexit in the way that nulab own the Iraq war. His second is to deny the right of his party their claim to be referred to as moderates, and on this he seems to be gaining too. As one used to playing the long game he seems to me to be playing it very well.

  12. Peter W.

    On the money, whilst there is a block of remain voters who whilst not changing their mind about their vote in the ref think we should get on with it and in another ref may switch to leave as we cant keep revisiting there is no mileage in seeking that second ref.

    There is a possibility, but imo an unlikely one, of negotiations going so bad and the implications of leaving becoming so obviously negative for enough voters that a second in/out ref becomes possible. Focusing on a close relationship with the EU short of membership is I feel a better approach for remain politicians.

  13. @PTRP

    For what it’s worth I still think it’s a bad decision so the only thing that will change my mind as such is if it turns out not to be. I just don’t think the majority that disagree with me will have their minds changed by a perpetuation of the referendum campaign tactic that treated them as thick as mince for thinking otherwise and devotes all its efforts to contriving technical reasons to ignore them.


    I wouldn’t expect goodwill from some of the parties. The DUP certainly don’t have a great track record there. I’d have expected a bit better from the Irish Government personally. But successful negotiations require it in some degree, and if there is none to be had, then the exercise is futile, and the naive are those who even sit down and try.

  14. @S THOMAS

    I don’t think the irish border is the Alamo. I think it is a problem which has several solutions none of which are palatable. In the end we have to chose one of them.

    I think the Irish border is s example of a lack of understanding of the situation that Brexit has brought. There are many other issues but this one is easy to see. I believe it will be resolved by having the border on the Irish sea. however if you watched any news item on sky ex UUP and First MInister trimble said that was unacceptable to the unionists

    currently we have freedom of movement as well as Freedom of goods. A FTA will not change the FoM issue between Irealnd and NI and therefore between the EU and NI.

    As I have said previously either we have to have a hard border somewhere, Tell me where you would put it?

    Several people have pointed out the options and their advantages and disadvantages. Pick one and be happy with the fallout.

    I think in the same way that we see slowly go through a level of disclosure that will temper what we can get.

  15. @PETERW

    My view is that there is nothing that can be done to change peoples mind either way it is what made the Iraq war so sad. We all got punished for mistake that a good proportion of the population knew was a disaster. I can comfortably say that Iraq was a disaster but not many people have owned up to the fact that they were wrong. Everyone has moved on from this indeed the same papers that were cheerleaders for the war seem to sound like they were always against it.

    In the end it is a matter of faith, The evidence can be used in many ways. take the new mini announcement. yes it is good that the new mini will be assembled in the UK but that is the point all the important parts of the manufacturing will not be done in the UK so what does that mean for UK manufacturing. There is no nuance in the discussion as their was nto surrounding the Iraq war. We want simple answers simple slogans. You cannot defeat ‘take back control’ because it means anything and everything

    So i think we will back here in 15 years and people would have forgotten they even voted leave as a poll has shown people had forgotten they supported the Iraq war


  16. That comment was a response to Danny’s response to my prior post.

    He said :-

    “Change the Uk forever? I doubt it. ”

    I said it would because, amongst other things, we would be able to change all our own laws.

    As to what laws-well that will be up to future Parliaments & the wishes of UK voters.

    For myself I hope & believe that substantial post Brexit change will be enacted in laws governing Agri-Environmental policy.

  17. Sorry PETE-that was a response to your question to me.


    I think EU difficulty getting trade deals is a two edged sword. When negotiating with the US. it has a big enough market to and clout to stop the US getting it’s way. Many of the deals that the EU strikes are basically reductions non tariff barriers. It has deals with most trading nations including US, China and India.

    Some of the trade deals that the EU has not been able to sign have been due to the UK for example the main sticking point for India deal was visa restrictions. I presume this will be a sticking point when the UK negotiates with Australia and China too.

    So my view is that a FTA is not the be all and end all. Indeed the lack of FTA has not hurt many EU countries from out-exporting the UK to third countries such as India and China and more importantly I have not seen a FTA that makes goods and services that others will want to buy. Therein lies the UK’s problem we have sold ourselves a simple solution to our troubles when the problem is complex as will be the solution. My fear is that brexit is a red herring and we will spend a huge amount of political and emotional capital on it and wonder what was that all about when noting improves.

    The one benefit of this is that we cannot blame anyone else for our failures (although I suspect we will)

  19. JIM JAM

    @”Focusing on a close relationship with the EU short of membership is I feel a better approach for remain politicians.”

    So how would that differ from the close relationship short of membership with EU actually being sought in our negotiations-. Trade, Security etc ??

  20. @COLIN

    I find the issue of take back control rather interesting.

    here is a video that makes me laugh not because I am a Corbyn supporter but because too many voters vote tribally and not for what they want.


    To my mind this undermines the taking back control narrative as we have a minority system of government for starters and representative democracy. which is why all those Tory voters will not get those policies that they felt were eminently sensible until they saw Corbyn’s face.

    So I fear if we will get another referendum and it will be used in the same manner as we use our EU Parliamentary votes

    I believe taking back control will have to include PR or else we will not be any better placed a voters


    @”So my view is that a FTA is not the be all and end all”

    There is some truth in that.

    Since Reagan left the White House UK exports to USA have increased 50% during a period in which no formal Trade Deal was instituted and during which TTIP between EU & USA failed .
    Prior to sanctions being imposed, our exports to Russia grew by 75% between 2009 & 2012. No FTA was involved.

    Your point about UK protections hampering an EU/India FTA cuts both ways.
    Outside of EU’s external tarriff wall we will no longer be hampered by the need to protect vast numbers of citrus groves & vineyards, or the shamefull retention for Europe of value added processing of basic African food commodity imports .

  22. The only way I can see to resolve the Irish border question that would satisfy most parties is a modified freedom of movement – continue to allow free trade of goods with the EU, and free movement of people as tourists, but require EU citizens to have work permits to work or claim benefits in the UK. WU citizens can come in if they want, but without the option to work it won’t be as attractive an option. This sort of “virtual border” is seems pretty much the only way to keep everyone happy (except the full on anti-immigration crowd, who’d see it as surrender).

    All reliant on a free trade deal with the EU of course, which seems unlikely to happen.

    Any other option involves a hard border in Ireland, pleasing no-one, or across the Irish sea, which the DUP would see as a red line to bring down the government.


    Taking control of our Money, Laws & Trade transcends the components & constraints of a particular Parliament.

    It is to do with our Democracy-not our Party Politics.

    It is a facility for Voters-not politicians.

  24. *EU citizens

  25. I also expect a special deal for Irish citizens to get automatic work permits in the UK.

  26. I also don’t really see how the Irish sea solution could ever impose tariffs on movement of goods; firstly Northern Ireland is the UK, so any mainland European goods flowing into it from the republic should be taxed if free trade has ended. Secondly, what’s to stop someone shipping mainland goods into Ireland, into the north, then relabeling them as products of NI? Sure it’d be illegal, but that didn’t stop us ending up eating horse meat for years.

  27. Sam 6.35 p.m.

    Yes, thank you for the Link. However, one question regarding that possibility is the role of the ECJ in regulating and controlling what takes place. Another would be the willingness (or political ability) of the present Government to go down that route at all. And, thirdly, how would Northern Irish businesses be distinguished from rUK businesses?
    Interesting though……

  28. PTRP 8.45

    Thank you for your calm and reasonable answer to ST. I find I fail in the task when it comes to that particular correspondent!

  29. @Passtherockplease

    “My fear is that brexit is a red herring and we will spend a huge amount of political and emotional capital on it and wonder what was that all about when noting improves.”

    In a nutshell this was the core of my opposition to Brexit. This country faces a number of genuine issues, none of which were caused by the EU and most of which are made worse by leaving.

    The only good point is that without Europe to blame we might actually have to start trying to resolve them.


    @”The only good point is that without Europe to blame we might actually have to start trying to resolve them.”

    I agree !!

    I think it will test our politicians though-they really have forgotten how to do that. A baptism of fire awaits them.

  31. Question is what happens to public opinion on Brexit, when the economics look so bad that it looks like a mistake ?

    Are most willing to accept negative consequences of Brexit to their families finances ?

    Do the public expect Politicians to make a decision on Brexit, in the interests of the country, even if it might go against the referendum result ?

    I think public opinion will change on Brexit and it will be very difficult for Politicians, as to how they react. Logic suggests a second referendum is more than a 50% possibility.

    ”The only good point is that without Europe to blame we might actually have to start trying to resolve them.”

    Illustrated perfectly by one of my Tory Brexiteer chums. We had a rather passionate discussion(in the gym, of all places) about how being free of the restrictions on trade deals with third parties would help or hinder the UK. It culminated in him quoting the example of how well Germany was getting on with exporting to China, unlike us. After a few moments reflection he decided it was time to get on with his rowing machine.

  33. Colin,

    In answering your question I would be joining the plethora of detailed Brexit posts and I would rather not.

    My point was a polling one in that enough 2016 Ref remainers are reconciled to leaving and feel it is wrong in principle to hold another ref that remainers are better focusing on what they see as the best Brexit settlement to from their perspective limit the damage.

    I do have views on how that might look but will endeavour not to discuss them on here. (I will fail occasionally I am sure)

  34. Brexit: Remainer crumb of comfort.

    My feeling is that if we do leave (very likely), we will most likely rejoin in some form or other within the next 20 years. The Brexit generation who dislike Germany and immigration will have moved on, and the next generation have no problem with either.


    “The only good point is that without Europe to blame we might actually have to start trying to resolve them.”

    Oh I dunno, I’m sure we will find some way or someone else. Moaning is what made us great after all.

    I do have a vague wonder if the negotiations end up with a half-in/half-out option, that is similar to membership but without any actual votes for the UK on internal EU matters, whether………

    [pause for breath]

    …….there could just be a majority in parliament in favour of a referendum to choose whether we half-leave or fully stay. [Although the latter could even involve some tweaking to freedom of movement that almost all EU citizens would welcome.]

    Obviously, were that to be an option for us we would have to have okayed it with the EU first.

    If a week is a long time on politics then five years is a lifetime so, as many have commented, if polls begin to move in that direction over the very long period that negotiations etc etc take, then – as they say – other brands are available.

  36. guymonds

    You shouldn’t have any brexiteer chums…

    Actually, we have two friends who came back from New Zealand after twenty years, voted to leave and then voted Tory – and are now thinking of going back …………..

  37. Toby Ebert: Brexit: Remainer crumb of comfort.

    My feeling is that if we do leave (very likely), we will most likely rejoin in some form or other within the next 20 years. The Brexit generation who dislike Germany and immigration will have moved on, and the next generation have no problem with either.

    My feeling too. Despite being strongly remain, I think it is best to take a hard Brexit rather than any fudge, because the fudge will still leave the arguments smouldering as to whether the decline we enter is due to Brexit or the continuing malign influence of the EU. Thus re entry will be a much easier decision to take.

  38. Pass the rock

    In the quest for a solution does the border for people and goods need to be the same?

    secondly, if the uk negotiates a tariff free trade agreement there will be no need for a hard internal border and arrangements will need to made in the uK. This is the stupidity of the EU stance about Ireland. You cannot solve a problem until you know what the problem is. this cannot be known until the trade deal is known. Repeat after me: nothing is settled until everything is settled.

  39. An air of unrealty.
    I dont know what they are smoking in luxembourg these days ,which is fast becoming the land where the cloud cuckoo lives,
    but for the Lux pm to say that they want their money back from the uK in any divorce arrangement seems odd.

    They dont pay anything themselves
    and are net recipients of funds. Beggars as they say..

  40. We will absolutely find a way to blame our post-brexit blues on the EU. It’s started already; the Mail headlined an article accusing the French and Germans of trying to “punish” us for leaving the EU by encouraging financial firms to move from the City to the mainland. Never mind that this was one of the biggest arguments against leaving in the first place…

    When the likely post-brexit economic downturn happens, the papers will blame the EU for being “unfair” and “punishing” us, rather than blame themselves tfor talking us into leaving.

  41. @R Huckle

    I expect a lot of the electorate are bracing for negative effects and have told themselves that they’re prepared for a certain amount of it.

    However, as austerity has shown, it can’t be very much for very long or consent will fall apart.

    The worst case scenario for Brexit is we end up leaving and once it is all irreversible then the electorate concludes that it was not a price that they were willing to pay.

  42. @Barny

    Leavers will try to blame the EU – they’ve blamed all their mistake on the EU for 30 years and I do not expect them to discover the concept of personal responsibility in 18 months.

    I no longer think it will wash with the electorate.

  43. JIM JAM

    I was just trying to understand how a Remainers “close relationship with EU short of membership” would compare with the same thing which TM is trying to get.

  44. @COLIN

    Easy – remaining in the Single Market,

  45. BARNY

    We will absolutely find a way to blame our post-brexit blues on the EU. It’s started already; the Mail

    With the BBC reminding us today that:

    EU countries have until midnight to submit bids to provide a new home for two agencies that will be relocated from the UK after Brexit.

    The European Banking Authority (EBA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA), based in Canary Wharf in London, employ just over 1,000 staff between them.

    The banking and medicines agencies are seen as the first spoils of Brexit by the 27 remaining members of the EU.
    About 20 countries are expected to enter the bidding process.

    There will be fierce competition to attract the agencies’ highly skilled employees, their families and the business that comes with them.

    This includes about 40,000 hotel stays for visitors each year.

    I wonder how the Mail will blame that on the nasty EU.

    See Brexit: Race to host EU agencies relocated from London.

  46. @sthomas

    A.tariff free trade agreement does not not remove the need for customs control at borders if a country is not in a customs union with the countries it is trading with ( for example Norway and the EU). . You really do need to read up on customs, borders and customs unions.

  47. @Barbazenzero
    “I wonder how the Mail will blame that on the nasty EU.”

    From the same article:

    “The 27 remaining EU countries are determined that the UK will pay the relocation bill, as Brexit was a UK decision.”


  48. I see the latest on whether freedom of movement will or wont end in any transitional deal is now that ”No 10 has moved to make clear free movement will end when the UK leaves.”
    That is clear…atleast until we something else being said next week.

  49. @S THOMAS

    I agree the systems for goods and people need not be the same but agins you have said nothing of how we can have a seemless border between NI and not have any immigration controls on said border.

    As many have said there are 4 options everyone agrees that a hard border is out of the question, Everyone is agreed that we need the border as it is. There is no customs checks no border control and if you have ever been to that part of the country people work and live on opposite side of the border.

    Now either the Irish leave the EU, or the border moves to Irish Sea or we just ignore this as a issue and leave the border open and forget about it as a problem. (essentially a free for all)

    tell me which one we should have. Which one you prefer telling everyone nothing agreed until everything is agreed is specious nonsense as we can have a trade agreement but it does not solve the people problem and where the border is.

    As I pointed out this one is simple even as a remainer I would override the Unionist objections and go for a border on the Irish sea, yes it make Northern Ireland special and yes the unionist would not like it but Ibelieve this is best long term solution. The NI assembly wants to match the Irish corporation tax as an example and I could see that working in their favour. basically there will be a slow harmonisation followed by reunification at some distant point in the future as the NI economy grows to be closer to that of the Irish one.

    The irish could make it easy for us by leave the EU but I am not sure they will do that unless we have a jedi mind trick somewhere up our sleeve and if we had one I am suprised we have not used it as yet of these weak minded EU officials

    In the end the problem I see with those that voed leave is that many are not prepared to accept the decision they made means there is things we are going to give up. What does make me chuckle is the gymnastics they are going through to not make a decision or not accept the situation as they find it.

    Now the final agreement could involve FoM and therefore I would then think that EU negotiation team have a jedi mind skills (considering how quickly we seem to fold on rows o the summer and all I am inclined to believe that they may have


  50. @passtherockplease

    The political issue for the Government with your preferred solution is that if special status is available for NI then it can also be available.for Wales and Scotland.

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