Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Standard has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. This is MORI’s first poll since the general election, and like other companies now shows Labour with a small lead over the Conservatives. Fieldwork was Friday to Tuesday. As far as I can tell, the methodology is back to MORI’s usual methods, as they were using before the election campaign. Full details are here.

To update on other voting intention polls earlier this week, ICM for the Guardian on Tuesday had voting intentions of CON 42%(+1), LAB 43%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 3%(nc). Fieldwork was over the weekend, and changes were from a fortnight ago. Full tabs for that are here.

Finally YouGov for the Times, which was released on Monday but conducted last week, had topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 45%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 2%. Tabs for that are here.


1,533 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 41, LAB 42, LD 9, UKIP 3”

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  1. @sthomas

    And you still do not seem to address the issue of the UK Government’s decision to leave the Customs Union in relation to the issues concerning Ireland. Perhaps it is too complex for you to understand.

  2. hireton

    I leave it to towering intellects such as yourself. If i may say so you have a remarkable grasp of trivia which no doubt puts you in good stead in pub quizzes.

  3. s thomas: “On Eire how can anything be decided on trade before a trade agreement. It is illogical. There is no point in talking about a hard border if there is tariff free trading. People movement is another matter but that too will depend on what UK immigration proposals are to be.”

    The first sentence of that is where I thought Davis had a something of a point before negotiations began in saying that the divorce settlement could not be agreed until the trade agreement was sorted. [The only point I thought he had.]

    But the presumed fact that we are coming out of the single market means that customs are required, even if there is a trade agreement, the only difference being whether the customs tariff is set at zero or some higher value. Customs are required to ensure technical compliance of goods entering and to ensure compliance with origin rules, even at zero tariff.

  4. PATRICKBRIAN
    Setting aside for a moment your premise that UK rights are ‘reduced’ rights,
    is it not the case that what the UK offered EU citizens was the right to live in the UK and enjoy the same rights (and responsibilities) as everyone else living in the UK. In return wouldn’t it be equitable for the EU to offer UK citizens in Europe the same rights (and responsibilities) as everyone else living in Europe?
    Isn’t that how it works all over the world?
    What rights do Europeans have when they live in the US? Can they avoid the death penalty if they murder someone? Do sixteen year old Americans retain the right to drive on their US drivers licenses if they move to Europe? Can fourteen year old Germans currently have sex legally in London as if they were in Berlin?
    I suppose in that last instance UK rights are indeed reduced. :)

  5. Brian Elects

    Vince Cable is…

    Principled: 7%
    Sensible: 9%
    A sell out who enabled Tory austerity and privatisation: 84%

    Via YouGov (July 20)

  6. @sthomas

    As you claim to be a lawyer you seem not to be able to grasp relatively simple points such as the one which @patrickbrian is making. The EU’s current proposal on UK nationals’ rights in the EU is simply a response to the less generous UK Government offer on EU citizens’ rights which it made.

    Indeed the EU is actually proposing what you want. If you are a UK citizen currently living for example in Spain you will be entitled to continue to enjoy the same rights in Spain as you currently do after Brexiters. However there will be no automatic right to then move to another EU country using the rights of an EU citizen as you will no longer be an EU citizen. After all Brexit means Brexit.

  7. s [email protected]: “But the EU approach fails to recognise that Brexit has happened. When we were in the EU the ECJ had jurisdiction , When we leave it does not. That change is called Brexit.it is us leaving the club. No nation can accept the principle that a select group of it citizens has different rights whether inferior or superior than others.

    ….

    it is bizarre to be accused of nationalism for wanting all people to be treated equally in ones own country.”

    I think it is more a case of you wanting to move the goalposts on people [like Mrs Monochrome] who are here already. These people are not UK citizens, so pre or post Brexit they have different rights anyway. Given the fact that Parliament did not choose to protect their existing rights in the Article 50 Act, it is as plain as a pikestaff that the UK system cannot be trusted to protect their rights. And as I have said before, even the Brexiters’ own newspapers classify the British Judiciary as Enemies of the People.

    As a UK citizen, I want Mrs Monochrome [and our marriage] protected by the ECJ. As far as I am concerned, I cannot trust the British people, nor our Parliament nor our Courts on this and I find it bizarre that you expect me to.

  8. Q, What would constitute success in the Brexit negotiations for the conservative party?

    A, Winning the next election

    Q, but given that the negotiations are complex and it’s impossible to satisfy all of their electoral coalition how can they possibly win the next election?

    A, anyone got any ideas?

  9. HIRETON
    That would be totally fair if only Spanish citizens were given the right to continue residing in the UK.

  10. @sthomas

    Thank you for confirming that you do understand the importance of the Customs Union and have no interest in understanding it. This further confirms what we already knew about your posts on Brexit.

  11. @David Colby

    Yes, the EU do indeed have a more enlightened approach than that of British nationalists.

  12. TOH

    Yes I noted the question from the Telegraph journalist-and Barnier’s awkward reply.

  13. Well done CR for trying to GIVE US A BREAK from Brexit Trench warfare.
    Personally, I can’t understand what the LDs hope to gain by allowing a ‘collabo’ like the blessed Vince to be leader. Vince is a specialist in the Nuanced approach, but the nation is clearly picking two sides, and there ain’t no room for the LDs, or much point to them. IMO, of course.

  14. s thomas re eire 2

    [The irish position is quite clear like the schelswig-Holstein issue.

    a. Upon Brexit unless an agreement to the contrary is made their will be tariff and customs borders between the UK (incl NI) and Eire for as long as it remains in the EU;
    b. It is for the UK and Eire to jointly approach the EU and invite the EU to modify that in the light of the special circumstances;
    c. it is bizarre for the EU to set the resolution of the irish issue as a condition precedent to the negotiation of a trade deal which may itself obviate the need for such a resolution.
    d. the trade deal needs logically to be done first. If on the present logic there is no satisfactory solution to the Irish Issue then there can be no trade deal whereas if there is a trade deal there might be no Irish issue,]

    a] to the extent that it is certain that the whole UK is coming out of the single market and the customs union, then this proposition is also certain
    b] no, as Eire is in the Single Market, this affects the whole Single Market. So it is for Eire to say to the other members of the SM “Hey guys, we in the SM have an issue here”. Which is more or less exactly what they have done. On this question the issue is bipartisan between the UK and the SM. It is in no way bipartisan between Eire and the UK, with the rest of the SM being no more than interested bystanders.
    c] as I have explained in another post, given a], the Irish issue will arise, regardless of tariffs being agreed at zero.
    d] there will only be no Irish issue if we remain in the Customs Union and the Single Market. As the UK position is that we come out of both, then there is inevitably an Irish issue. Hence proposition d] fails for any and all trade deals other than remaining in the SM and the CU. And therefore it is entirely appropriate to resolve the Irish border at this stage because regardless of the actual trade deal, a border is needed.

    The EU and the RoI will not want a border but acknowledge that the UK’s position makes one inevitable. I suppose that the hope is that the UK and its Brexiters will begin to understand the SM in terms of realities rather than according to fables of straight bananas. Certainly the UK has most to lose from a hard border in terms of potential civil consequences.

  15. HIRETON
    Oh dear, I’m really sorry but I wasn’t agreeing with you.

  16. Hireton

    As usual your logic is flawed for the reason pointed out.The EU negotiates on behalf of all EU members and therefore logically grants rights for the entity and not for the individual constituents of the entity.
    To then attempt to divide the entity for the purpose of rights mean that the UK must negotiate for its citizens with each of the 27 members and not the EU
    The EU either negotiates on behalf of all of its members or of none. it really must make up its mind or Merkel must make up its mind for it.

  17. S Thomas

    “The EU negotiates on behalf of all EU members”

    Who does David Davis negotiate on behalf of? That’s what I want to know

  18. mono chrome october

    . But what if barnier says that not enough progress has been made and there can be no trade talks.?

    if there is no trade deal then and no deal on ireland then what will ireland do then?It will have to do something?

  19. On the last thread someone posted an analysis of likely seat distribution in Scotland – on the basis of the ICM poll.

    Just to demonstrate that the former UKPR mantra “Don’t look at the Scottish crossbreaks” was sensible advice (partially [1]) here are the Westminster seats analysis by Scotland Votes for the last 6 Scottish crossbreaks (if we pretend that any of them are accurate).

    SNP 30, 30, 12, 46, 38
    SCon 11, 15, 7, 8, 6
    SLab 9, 12, 35, 2, 12
    SLD 9,2,6,3,3

    (ICM is 3rd in these lists)

    On this, of all sites, trying to extrapolate seats from a crossbreak should be punishable by being made to try to explain to Leadsom that Jane Austen is dead.

    [1] Simply because the Scottish crossbreaks represent VI in a single polity, they can be useful if all/most are indicating a similar pattern over time.

  20. OldNat
    Better to explain about Queen Anne first, to Leadsome.

  21. DAVID COLBY

    “is it not the case that what the UK offered EU citizens was the right to live in the UK and enjoy the same rights (and responsibilities) as everyone else living in the UK. ”

    No. It wasn’t. You really haven’t been paying attention.

    EU citizens will have no voting rights. If they leave the country for more than two years they will not be allowed to return, unless “they can prove strong ties to the UK”. Past experience of the Home Office has taught us that the burden of proof will be very high indeed.

    They will need to be registered, in order to access NHS, rights to employment , etc. This will be a separate register. At the moment there is no intention to register UK citizens. These rights can in any case be overturned at any time by act of parliament

    In addition they will not be able to bring elderly parents to live with them, or indeed their children should these live abroad for a while. ( I know that technically British citizens can’t do that either, but generally it’s not an issue for them)

    Whether you consider the terms generous or not, it is undeniable that a separate class of over 3 million disenfranchised persons will be created resident in the UK, who are allowed to stay by permission of the government of the day.

    I appreciate many difficulties to do with sovereignty and third nation status, but personally don’t find this solution satisfactory for the longer term. It may well stimulate hate crime. You may find it very satisfactory, of course. But it is a fact that my wife will have lesser rights than me.

    As for the rest of your post – Nobody is talking about any of that. Of course everyone is subject to the law of the land they live in. It’s just irrelevant nonsense.

  22. “When asked by The Telegraph to name a single example of where a country submits to a foreign court, Mr Barnier flannelled wildly – but then pointed to arrangement of Norway which accepts EU law indirectly via the EFTA court.”

    First of all, the Norway example is perfectly valid, with the Court of Justice of the European Free Trade Association States, but he could have talked about the UK submitting to the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, the Appellant Body (part of the WTO system), the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, the European Nuclear Energy Tribunal, and he could also have pointed out that the current UK government were _very_ keen on the investor state dispute settlement mechanism being negotiated under the TTIP deal and have just enthusiastically agreed to rely on a new permanent investment court system under the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).

    This really is why the Daily Telegraph, Theresa May and those daft Brexiteers who place the ECJ as some form of red line – as Britain can only be subject to British courts are so stupid – we are already subject to multiple international courts, and every time we sign a new international agreement we establish a further legally binding international mechanism, because that’s how international agreements work.

    If only people (including quite a few on this board) could see how daft this knee jerk reaction against the ECJ really is, and how utterly illogical their stance is, then we might be able to stop setting false red lines and get on with the serious business of making a decent deal.

    In the end, the rights and agreements made within this deal will be subject to an agreed legal system, which will not be British. It will probably not be the ECJ, but will be called something else, cost us more money, and do exactly the same job. If Brexiteers laud this as sone kind of triumph, then I think we will be justified in going back to the notion that Brexit is favoured in the main by people of lower educational attainment.

  23. ChrisR
    … and eighteen more months of nonstop brexit entertainment on here, presumably

    After nearly a decade lurking I certainly seem to have chosen an interesting time to come out of hibernation.

  24. s [email protected] october: [But what if barnier says that not enough progress has been made and there can be no trade talks.?

    if there is no trade deal then and no deal on ireland then what will ireland do then?It will have to do something?]

    My solution would be for the UK to take the initiative, withdraw the article 50 notification and have the Department for Exiting the EU take 4 years to produce a proper prospectus for Brexit – now that all the issues are scoped out or can be scoped out.

    Then let Parliament decide whether the Brexit Prospectus stands up.

  25. Alec

    The conservative position on the EJC is not a daft knee jerk reaction. It’s an essential element to their negotiating strategy. I know everyone thinks they don’t have a negotiating strategy but that’s because they are looking at it the wrong way. The only way the Tories can win the next election is patriotic fervour, deal or no deal doesn’t matter. What matters is painting the EU as the enemy.

  26. s [email protected] october: [But what if barnier says that not enough progress has been made and there can be no trade talks.?
    if there is no trade deal then and no deal on ireland then what will ireland do then?It will have to do something?]

    I suspect this is the wrong question – should be “What will NORTHERN Ireland do then?”

    The North matters to the Republic – but in simple, practical day-to-day matters, the Republic matters even more to the North. With no deal, a hard border could just be enough to tip them over the edge, in favour of the Nationalist cause and reunification.

    Is GB willing to see the break up of the union, to appease the Brexiteers?

  27. Saffer

    “Is GB willing to see the break up of the union, to appease the Brexiteers?”

    It was willing to do that to appease the Ulster Unionists.

    It would be poetic justice for the intransigence of the “Proddies” in the North against Home Rule, to be rewarded by English intransigence against the EU separating them from their roots in the feuding Marches between England and Scotland. :-)

    They might even move forward into the 21st century (I remain an optimist).

  28. Saffer

    I should point out that there are two “unions”. The UK is a member of one – which it seems determined to break up, while itself composed of other union arrangements.

    Indeed, all existing UN members result from a process of absorption, conquest, defeat, loss, peaceful merger or disentanglement.

    It’s a very archaic concept that existing states must always remain united in their present borders, or not join with other polities in different structures.

  29. @oldnat:

    :) Agreed (on poetic justice, and on optimism).

  30. @oldnat

    It’s a very archaic concept that existing states must always remain united in their present borders, or not join with other polities in different structures.

    Agreed again: or this site would be continually obsessed with the relative rights of Wessex, Mercia et al.

    And of course, “the union” is ambiguous” (or amtriguous? UN, EU, UK).

  31. Labour doing well in tonight’s local council by-elections. https://twitter.com/britainelects

  32. Sthomas

    I’m rather surprised you can’t see the reciprocity:

    EU citizens here are allowed to remain in the country they have settled in subject to whatever immigration law the sovereign UK decides to apply to them.

    UK citizens in Europe are allowed to remain in the country they have settled in subject to whatever immigration laws the separate sovereign states of Europe individually decide to apply to them.

    EU commission washes its hands.

    Simple. Everybody loses. You and the Daily Mail blame the EU and I
    and 5 million migrants blame May/Davis.

  33. Tweet from Waterstones

    “We are currently moving all our Jane Austen stock from Classics into Greatest Living Authors. Thanks Andrea Leadsom for the heads up.”

  34. English is not the first language of any EU member state except the UK and we are leaving in April 2019.
    The EU institutions (Parliament, Council, Commission, Civil Service, trade negotiators with other organisations) and individual citizens and companies can not function without using English to communicate. It is this our English language which glues them together.
    When we joined in 1973 we pooled our assets such as fishing waters and use of our language.
    Now we are leaving the EU should be billed £2 billion a week to use our language on licence until they are equipped not to do so. It will take ten years and many hundreds of billions of euros for the EU to get any language (French, Spanish, German) up to their EU wide competence in English.
    It may take years for the EU to decide which language to choose to replace English. French faction will be bitterly opposed by Scandinavian and East European faction.
    We must assert intellectual property in English and take it back with our fishing waters unless the EU negotiate the right to continued use.
    £2 billion a week is the NHS budget doubled each week.
    BTW Irish first official language is Gaelic.

  35. Further thoughts on the Irish border.

    It’s inconceivable that there will be a “hard” border. The Irish don’t want it, the EU doesn’t want it – and NI doesn’t want it: not SF, not the DUP.

    If it came down to no deal, with a hard border, the DUP will certainly break ranks with TM and refuse to go along with it.

    There will certainly be some sort of deal over the border, both for people, and for goods. The really interesting question, is what does that mean for the rest of the deal?

    I simply cannot see any way that a soft/ frictionless border with the Irish Republic is compatible with a hard Brexit with the rest of the EU.

  36. CambridgeRachel

    “Who does David Davis negotiate on behalf of? That’s what I want to know”

    The best question for some time. It’s really excellent as it acts as the aqua regia (Nitric acid hydrochloride).

    You can use it on any comment, as using your question the true colour of the comment is shown (the analogy is a bit stumbling, but still …)

  37. Jonathan Stuart-Brown

    A wonderful spoof comment! (unless you are serious, in which case you are an idiot).

    These days, on UKPR it’s often hard to tell! :-)

  38. @ Jonathan Stuart-Brown

    “BTW Irish first official language is Gaelic.”

    Sure, but for all except about 4% of the Irish population, English is their actual first language, and the gaeilgeoirí are all bilingual apart from a few small children, who will become so.

    Irish has only been an official EU language since 2007; it still isn’t a full working language of the European institutions, since it will remain in “derogation” until 2022, after which all official documents will have to be translated into it. (https://www.euractiv.com/section/languages-culture/news/irish-to-be-given-full-official-eu-language-status/)

    A consequence of this derogation, of course, is that English is de facto the language in which the Irish republic conducts its business with the EU.

  39. *Republic*
    Wasn’t intending to downgrade it from a proper noun.

  40. The latest poll seems to confirm Labour’s slight lead slipping a little.

    I see that we are still on interminable discussions about Brexit. Absolutely nothing can be achieved by point-scoring on this site. However, just one point about the Irish border: if it is a ‘soft’ border, anyone from the EU (including North African and other illegal immigrants) who wants to come to the UK will go to Eire first and then just walk across the border. Will we see the Calais camp moving to Cherbourg and Rostoff which have ferries to Eire?

  41. PeteB
    Labour’s slight lead slipping a little? Not at all, as Analyst said a clear trend from quite a few polls now, since the GE. Not a big lead, but steady at between 1 and 3 %.

  42. RJW
    “I see that we are still on interminable discussions about Brexit.”

    But now the brexit negotiations are onto the details its fascinating. One thing all the detailed discussion on post-brexit EU citizens rights (in the UK) and UK citizens right (in the EU) shows – to me anyway – is that the UK government was quite right all along to not unilaterally guarantee EU citizens rights in the post-brexit UK as many opposition parties were clamouring for pre-GE.

  43. Who would have thought 8 weeks ago, that we would have a hung Parliament, Tories needing DUP votes in the HoC and Labour regularly leading in the polls ?

    If anyone had predicted this, there would have been comments from many asking whether anyone was missing a patient.

    I just wonder what is ahead ? Brexit starts to look like a failure and UKIP take votes from other parties ? Theresa May is forced by her party to resign ? Votes of no confidence in thr HoC ? Another election within 12 months ?

    Anything is possible !

  44. BALDBLOKE
    “RJW
    “I see that we are still on interminable discussions about Brexit.”
    But now the brexit negotiations are onto the details its fascinating. One thing all the detailed discussion on post-brexit EU citizens rights (in the UK) and UK citizens right (in the EU) shows – to me anyway – is that the UK government was quite right all along to not unilaterally guarantee EU citizens rights in the post-brexit UK as many opposition parties were clamouring for pre-GE.
    July 21st, 2017 at 7:34 am”

    I don’t know about this. Surely if you want Brexit to be a success for the UK and the EU, then you start the process in the right way. Trying to use humans as a negotiating point is not really appropriate. The UK has benefitted from EU workers and surely wants them to stay.

    Brexit might fail if it becomes a political chess game, rather than a negotiation between friends. There might be a temptation on either side to play to the media and interested parties on their own sides.

    This is why i think Brexit might be more likely if another party negotiates it. Some might think Labour as a party with strong trade union traditions might be more aligned to negotiate with the EU on shared social values. I would think that Labour has more in common with EU policies than the Tories. The Tories have always found the EU a struggle because they don’t follow the same political outlook.

  45. RJW
    “I see that we are still on interminable discussions about Brexit.”

    OK to change the subject I saw this on the bbc yesterday:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-40654933

    So a number of our esteemed institutions have doubled or in some cases almost tripled the proportion of first class degrees they grant in just a 5 year period from 2010-2015. Not to mention giving a 2.1 to more than half of all students. It seems our universities are in a desperate race to the bottom. I wonder if they have considered handing out degrees for just turning up. The plus side is we could solve the tuition fee problem at a stroke. Why not simply just give a degree to anyone who wants one at age 21. For free. Would save 3 years wasted for many students and they need not then be lumbered with a debt they can never repay. And they get back 3 years of their lives to do something more useful.

  46. A few years ago on here the polls were steady for many months or even years, and one poster even coined a word for it polldrums (copyright Amber).

    Since then everything has kicked off, and we have had the EU referendum, a Conservative landslide in the local elections, followed only a few weeks later by a large swing to Labour in the General Election. (It was probably only the postal votes cast early that saved the Conservatives.)

    Where are the polldrums of yesteryear?

  47. Somerjohn

    Since you to ask, when I have the time, I write longer posts in Word and apply the editing/spellcheck function before posting. Dyslexia does not go away, but it’s never been an issue for me in life, other than here occasionally when people have commented on my spelling or punctuation. I admit I find the latter mildly irritating.

    Alec

    Back to “daft”, “stupid” and of “lower educational attainment “for those you disagree with I see. I appreciate you are frustrated by the way things are going but you seem so hysterical that I fear for your health.

    If you cannot see what is wrong with the EU’s demand for the ECJ having a role in how we treat people living in this country after we have left the EU then I give up, your love of Euroland is beyond reason.

    Baldbloke

    “ that the UK government was quite right all along to not unilaterally guarantee EU citizens rights in the post-brexit UK as many opposition parties were clamouring for pre-GE.”

    Exactly, the Government was absolutely correct.

    “Would save 3 years wasted for many students and they need not then be lumbered with a debt they can never repay. And they get back 3 years of their lives to do something more useful.”

    Might explain the differences in educational attainment between those who want to leave the EU and those who want to stay. :-)

    R Huckle

    “Brexit starts to look like a failure”

    Starting to look like a success to me, you must want to stay in the EU. I could use some of the words Alec uses but my natural politeness prevents me.

    Have a good day all. I have much to harvest and we are going for a long walk.

  48. Oldnat, I find your use of the word Proddies disgusting, and not the sort of language one would expect here.

  49. In order for there to be an early GE those able to force it (either Cons or DUP who would have to vote against the Gov’t not just abstain) have to believe that they would be better off after it.

    Don’t see that as possible in the next 12 months.

    By Spring 2019 with the interim deal with the EU is hopefully passed in the UK and the Eu27 and the DUP C&S deal is over a GE called by a new Tory PM may be the only way forward but even then hanging on as long as possible is the usual way.

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