Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Standard has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. This is MORI’s first poll since the general election, and like other companies now shows Labour with a small lead over the Conservatives. Fieldwork was Friday to Tuesday. As far as I can tell, the methodology is back to MORI’s usual methods, as they were using before the election campaign. Full details are here.

To update on other voting intention polls earlier this week, ICM for the Guardian on Tuesday had voting intentions of CON 42%(+1), LAB 43%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 3%(nc). Fieldwork was over the weekend, and changes were from a fortnight ago. Full tabs for that are here.

Finally YouGov for the Times, which was released on Monday but conducted last week, had topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 45%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 2%. Tabs for that are here.


1,533 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 41, LAB 42, LD 9, UKIP 3”

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  1. “BARNY
    What I find most interesting from the BES is that undecideds broke almost entirely for Labour during the campaign.”

    Given both the nature and enormous difference in energy and content of those two campaigns and manifestos it would have been remarkable if someone, not already a committed Tory, thought:

    “D’you know what? I really like what Mrs May is offering.”

    The Tory divisions between soft/[no] brexit and hard version are beginning to look very interesting.

    Especially given that the former can get everything through both Commons and Lords whilst the latter almost certainly can’t.

  2. Some good PMI data this morning for the UK mnufacturing sector, but interestingly for Brexiteers, it’s the by product of the devaluation that seems to be the key driver. Another intriging paradox is that the surge in exports is, in large part at least, also being driven presumably by the unexpectedly strong growth in the EU economies. Overall, UK economic growth is lagging far behind our EU compatriots, but their strong growth is in itself dragging in UK exports, helped by the weakened pound.

    While this is all good clean fun, there are a couple of salient points. As I’ve said many times before, while not particularly ecnmically literate, as we aproach the point of Brexit, voters may tend to compare the UK’s sluggish growth with the EU’s romping along expansion, and feel less certain about leaving.

    Secondly, and potentially much more significantly, the more we export to the EU in the run up to Brexit, the more damaging the prospect of any kind of trade barriers being erected will become. In effect, the UK’s export success is, in itself, handing an additional negotiating weapon to our EU rivals.

  3. @Barny

    It was predicted that might happen as it was clear that Labour’s poor polling was down to so many people moving to ‘undecided’ rather than actually going to another party.

    What was perhaps surprising was quite how comprehensive that movement was. A lot on the Right were genuinely confident that they’d taken a significant share of the formerly Labour vote to the extent that they felt that the UK political landscape was to be permanently transformed and the election was meant to cement that.

    As BES showed, they were entirely mistaken. It was a massive miscalculation. There were warnings that the Tories had only taken half the message of the Brexit vote – that a WWC vote that had opted to poke a Tory PM in the eye and reject the Establishment were not suddenly going to go all gooey-eyed over The Establishment Party – but they were roundly ignored.

    Arguably, the Tories have never shown themselves as out of touch as they did by both calling the election and then being sure they’d walk it. Something went hugely wrong with the way the Tories (and Leavers for that matter) read the national mood. It would be very interesting to find out what that is because I see no evidence that they’re anywhere near working out what they did wrong.

  4. This might be a bad translation but the latest polling from you gov seems to be say that…..The public feel that there are bad economic times coming, that it’s our own fault, and we deserved to be punished.

  5. Chris and Barny
    Yes, the undecideds in the March polls had more 2015 Lab and LD voters than Tory. However if recovering undecideds from 2015 was all that happened, Labour would only have got 31%. The other 9% came from UKIP, Green, Tory (cancelling out some UKIP to Tory) and new voters, plus a 3% gain from Lib Dem compared to March

  6. @ Chris Riley

    ‘Arguably, the Tories have never shown themselves as out of touch as they did by both calling the election and then being sure they’d walk it. Something went hugely wrong with the way the Tories (and Leavers for that matter) read the national mood. It would be very interesting to find out what that is because I see no evidence that they’re anywhere near working out what they did wrong.’

    I do so agree. I was perplexed that few (least of all the LP polling experts) seemed to consider the 20% former Labour voters whose DK status meant that they weren’t reflected in the polling. It would be interesting to know how much the effect of the PLP ceasing hostility and the ‘neutrality’ of the BBC during the election period accounted for a return of the undecideds to Labour.

  7. @ Patrick Brian

    ‘“and the lack of increase in the 2017 LD vote from 2015 (apart from some LD/Con marginals) also corroborates the finding that for many Labour voters, it was the manifesto and not Brexit which was important.”’

    I was talking about the actual number of LD voters in a particular constituency. If you look at the fall in numbers between 2010 and 2015, you see that for the most part, there was no recovery in 2017….. the actual 2017 vote being almost identical to 2015. The exceptions are areas which were formerly held by a LD MP when the 2017 vote upticks. e.g. Winchester and Cheadle.

    As Barny says ‘ Likely many of those ardent remainers who would have swung to the Lib Dems thought there was no chance of anything but a huge Tory majority, and when it became clear that Labour might actually be able to keep that majority under 100 at least, they swung back.’

    This was evidenced in a number of constituencies, particularly in the SE, where the drop in LD votes 2010 – 2015 was almost exactly mirrored (in numerical terms) by an increase in the Labour vote 2015-2017. Bexhill and Battle is a good example, Chichester another.

    In fact, it looks from the raw data as if there was a considerable amount of tactical voting which is largely hidden within the final figures. My view was always that this was a GE of 650 separate elections and, although the patterns are more consistent than I had initially thought, I think my view is vindicated.

  8. @ Patrick Brian

    Apologies… I think I confused your question with Barny’s comment.

    Why do I think the manifesto was probably more important for Labour voters than Brexit?

    ‘The BES study shows an almost equal number of labour voters moving to LD as LD moving to Labour. This suggests to me some attraction by LD as the Remain party, some attraction by Labour for the reasons you mention, and a lot of tactical voting for reasons we can’t be sure about. ie a complex picture.’

    As Andrew111 says, the increase in the Labour vote was not solely down to LD … in fact, as you say, overall the two seem to have cancelled each other out. It is clear that the votes from Ukip, the Greens and above all the increased turnout from 2015 non-voters.

    But most significantly….. IIRC You gov polling of Labour voters found that 28% said that the manifesto policies were most important in determining their vote (but I can’t find the link) :)

  9. Yes was 28% sue and then a decent %age for Education and NHS policies which of course where in the manifesto.

  10. SYZYGY @ PATRICKBRIAN

    IIRC You gov polling of Labour voters found that 28% said that the manifesto policies were most important in determining their vote (but I can’t find the link)

    Your recall is excellent and your 28% is spot on.

    See YouGov’s Why people voted Labour or Conservative at the 2017 general election.

  11. @ Jim Jam and BZ

    Many thanks …. and for the link :)

  12. Not a bad poll for the Tories, but notable that May hasn’t had the honeymoon Major had post-92.

  13. WB

    Thanks for the Huffington post link. There’s a good article plus tables in YouGov’s The ‘extremists’ on both sides of the Brexit debate.

  14. Re:you gov poll

    Glad to see the 19% so well represented on this site.You know who you are !

  15. S Thomas

    Plenty of the other flavour of ‘extremist’ on this site as well.

    I’m sure they know who they are as well.

  16. SThomas

    What are you in? the 39%?

    Personally I find any question that starts”Regardless of whether…” pretty meaningless.

  17. @ Syzergy

    I think your point about 650 different elections going on is very valid. Also I think while there may have been tactical voting this was very random and certainly didn’t follow the patterns of the ABT tactical voting we’ve seen in the past.

    Scotland is the obvious case and it will be interesting to see where Scotland goes next time. Could be the Tories are there to stay or it could be that the shock of Tory MPs will lead to a new alignment with the ABT tactical vote with Labour/SNP (delete as applicable depending on the seat) forgiven.

    Also the remain/leave “tactical” vote will be absent next time- I guess not so much tactical as it was genuine as we saw in South West London for example.

    I also think that although it was a long campaign it did catch people by surprise and there were interruptions at crucial times that left some canvassing or leafleting incomplete. In the North West for example, Bolton West should have gone Labour on the trends and was predicted to do so on the exit poll but the Labour campaign there was reported as slow to hit the ground and may have cost them that seat.

    Plus national tactical voting may have been minimised because the result was not expected to be close. Again in the North West we had a rather unusual result in Southport with Lib Dems going from 1st to 3rd- even with the loss of incumbency and a very low 13.500 votes to win the seat in 2015 you’d have expected them to put the squeeze on a two horse race but it didn’t happen.

  18. Michael Keating has an article dealing with the groups that constitute the Leavers. He labels them as the Europeans (EEA style Brexit); the globalists who dislike the EU for its inward- looking protectionism and the Little Englanders who are broadly UKIP. Here is the link and a part of the closing lines.

    http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/where-next-divided-kingdom

    “The most difficult part of the constitutional jigsaw, however, could be England. The English question has risen in importance in recent years, fuelled by grievances over territorial funding and English votes for English laws. This now aligns with Little Englandism over Europe and with the Ukip vote. Marginalised communities in the post-industrial towns of England that feel left out by globalisation will not take to a government of globalists. Nor will working-class voters rally to Eton- and Oxford-educated leaders or City traders. Labour is losing these voters, as it has already lost their equivalent in Scotland, through its failure to address their anxieties and their precarious position in a changed world. While Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their own governing institutions, the English cities have been offered only a top-down, managerialist form of government, focused on growth more than social inclusion and designed without any local contribution and with scant attention to citizen engagement.

    There is a real prospect here for an English populist right movement of the sort we see in other European countries, with their mix of ethnic nationalism, nativism, Europhobia, protectionism and welfare chauvinism. The extreme right has never been a serious force in British politics but there have been bursts of support in the 1930s, the 1970s and the 1990s. There is no reason to think that the British are naturally immune to it. “

  19. Breaking News…….

    Despite Brexit:
    The sun still comes up every day
    The garden still looks nice
    The birds still sing
    Water still comes through the taps
    Electricity still works
    Cars still work
    Shops are still open
    ————————————
    Just thought you all ought to know. :-)

  20. Colin,
    “UKPR isn’t a “table”. It is a place for analysis of political opinion polling . The owner decides who can & cannot contribute.”

    I am reminded of how democracy works in the Uk. While it might be argued voters own the whole place, in reality is it the political parties who choose who will be elected, and voters just get to pick from the very limited choice they are given. Thus so here.

  21. Pete B,
    “Breaking News…….

    Despite Brexit: The sun still comes up every day…”

    As Howard keeps saying, only for another 500 or so days!

  22. Syzygy, Chris Riley,
    “Arguably, the Tories have never shown themselves as out of touch as they did by both calling the election and then being sure they’d walk it.”

    I fear I cannot agree. The campaign was not a mistake but a referendum on hard Brexit. Whatever the result, the conservatives needed to know the mood of the nation before proceeding, and they got their answer.

  23. Shevii,
    “Also the remain/leave “tactical” vote will be absent next time”

    I think you are getting a bit ahead of events. The last parliament did not last very long and its government started off with a majority. It is very possible there could be an election before schedule, especially if the government sees advantage.

    But even if it runs 5 years, I think there is a high likelihood Brexit will still be top of the list for voters. Nothing will have been settled by then. Even if brexit is cancelled, UKIP will be back in business. If it is still going through,it will take years to settle down

  24. Danny

    “I fear I cannot agree. The campaign was not a mistake but a referendum on hard Brexit. Whatever the result, the conservatives needed to know the mood of the nation before proceeding, and they got their answer.”

    That is absolute nonsense. Both the major parties in the 2017 election had manifesto’s commited to leaving the EU. The party most commited to fully leaving the EU won the most votes and the most seats. We are leaving, end of story. There is no such thing as “hard” Brexit we either leave the EU or we don’t. So called “soft” Brexit is not leaving the EU.

  25. @ Danny

    I hesitate to get into a Brexit discussion because that has what has put me off UKPR somewhat in the last year.

    Totally accept the possibility of another election although that would probably mean the Tories have thrown in the towel and decided that Labour should pick up any flack from the outcome. But surely if it does run the term, even if transitional arrangements are in place the outcome will have already have been negotiated and we will know exactly how the transition ends? I guess there could be something in manifestos about renegotiating the eventual trade treaty but I’d have thought that would be a long term thing and not something that could just be changed before the end of transition?

    Obviously I think the Brexit outcome will be the defining issue at the next election but I don’t think that is the same as the tactical voting in 2017 where some voters may have voted either to see Brexit through or to try and stop it. Next time it will just be about the economy and whether the Tories did a good job on the negotiations or not.

  26. PeteB

    Liked it! :-)

  27. @ Danny

    Rather than the GE being a referendum on Brexit, everything pointed to it being about marginalising opposition. Theresa May said it was opposition from without the Conservative party but I think it was pretty clear that the intra-party splits were the more significant…. as the current cabinet seems to reflect. If she had gained a large majority, she would have had flexibility to go either way without worrying about the europhiles or europhobes.

    My personal hunch is that she would have gone for a Brexit fudge similar to Hammond’s perpetual transition measures
    However, now we will never know.

  28. Pete B

    “Breaking News…….

    Despite Brexit:
    The sun still comes up every day
    The garden still looks nice
    The birds still sing
    Water still comes through the taps
    Electricity still works
    Cars still work
    Shops are still open
    ————————————
    Just thought you all ought to know. :-)”

    Don’t get too excited…Brexit hasn’t happened yet.

  29. Bet B

    Sorry, couldn’t help it – I’m just a glass half empty sort of person :)

    “The sun still comes up every day” – Loss of International co-operation on Climate Change will soon fix that.

    “The garden still looks nice.” – Lovely. Keep working at it.

    “The birds still sing “– Abolition of EU’s bossy environmental rules visavis GM and pesticides will soon fix that too.

    “Water still comes through the taps”; – but will it still be drinkable after the government has dispensed with EU inspired red tape?

    “Electricity still works”; – BG have just put up electricity prices by 12.5%. Irrelevant of course for those who can afford it.

    “Cars still work”,- but won’t be made in Britain for much longer.

    “Shops are still open” – well, some of them. Plenty of boarded up windows on our high street. When Brexit combines with the inevitable Credit Crunch for a hugely indebted nation, how many will be left?

  30. New thread

  31. new thread re BES

  32. The Other howard,
    “Both the major parties in the 2017 election had manifesto’s commited to leaving the EU.”

    No, they didnt. The conservatives had a manifesto where they stated they preferred no deal. Labour had a manifesto where they stated the economy comes first in deciding what sort -if any- Brexit to have.

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