Sunday polls

Opinium’s latest voting intention figures are CON 41%(+2), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 5%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Theresa May’s net job approval stands at minus 21, Jeremy Corbyn’s at plus 4 (though May has regained a small lead on who people think would make the better Prime Minister, 36% to Corbyn’s 33%).

Asked about Theresa May’s future, a third of people think she should resign straight away, 16% think she should go after Brexit negotiations are complete, 8% just before the next general election and 22% that she should remain and fight the next general election. Answers to this are heavily partisan, as you might expect: a hefty majority of Labour voters would like May to go now, only 9% of Tory voters. 62% of Tory voters would like her to remain PM until either shortly before the election (14%) or to fight the election (48%). Tabs for the Opinium poll are here.

There was also a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday with topline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 41%(-4), LD 8%(+1), UKIP 6%(+2). Changes are since Survation’s last online poll in mid-June, rather than their last telephone poll which showed a small Tory lead. Theresa May also still leads as best PM here, 43% to Corbyn’s 35%.

Survation also asked questions about Theresa May’s future, though their’s was a simpler should she stay or go question.45% would like her to resign, 40% would like her to stay. Again, responses are overwhelmingly split down partisan lines: 77% of Lab voters would like her to go, 78% of Tory voters would like her to stay). Asked about who should succeed her if she did go, Boris Johnson leads on 22% ahead of David Davis on 15%. 46% of people say don’t know. Questions like this don’t give us that much insight because of low public awareness of the options. The most interesting ones there asked who people would prefer in run offs between two potential leaders – between Davis and Johnson Davis wins by 36% to Johnson’s 30%. Paired against Philip Hammond Johnson only just wins, 34% to 33%, though he beats Amber Rudd by 38% to 27%. There are still lots of don’t knows, but I’m conscious that a few years ago Johnson’s popularity and celebrity would probably have seen him easily winning all three questions at a trot. The shine looks as if it may have come off Boris Johnson. Tabs for the Survation poll are here.

Finally there was a BMG poll in the Independent asking about the public sector pay cap. Questions like this are tricky – most people have huge sympathy for “frontline” public sector workers like nurses and firefighters, so the social desirability bias towards saying you’d pay a little more to give them a rise is huge (it’s what we tend to call a “drowning puppy” question in the office, as in “would you pay more tax to save this drowning puppy?”). If anything, I’m surprised only 56% said they’d be willing to pay more in tax to fund a pay rise above 1% for only occupations like firefighters, police officers, paramedics and nurses. More generally, 69% of people said the public sector pay cap should end, but asked if they’d be willing to pay more tax to give a rise to “non-emergency” occupations the split was pretty even, 42% said they would, 41% would not..

Opinium also asked about the public sector pay cap in their poll. 53% of people support ending it, 21% of people would be opposed. They also asked about it on specific jobs. Questions like this are, to some degree, just reflections of how popular or valued a role is (as well as how well paid people think it currently is). Almost 70% of people wanted the pay cap ended for nurses, 60% or more for the armed forces, police and fire service. Teachers was 56%, followed by doctors on 53%. For dentists it was only 38%. I’m intrigued about what Opinium would have found if they’d asked about less obviously sympathetic public sector jobs: local government planning officers perhaps, benefit assessors, immigration officers, refuse collectors, traffic engineers, taxmen…


480 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. TOH

    Thanks for your concern and tips. I hope to survive as long as you do!

    I’m more interested though in what you thought of Dr Wollaston’s letter. She’s a Conservative, and well respected. If you believe your oncologist, do you think Dr W is making a fuss about nothing? Or are there perhaps some possible problems about leaving the EU that we would do well to anticipate and avoid, including medical supplies?

    Incidentally, like Charles, I would love you to list the many benefits of leaving the EU , and perhaps some liabilities ( as well as the short term economic hit that I know you recognise). It might cheer us up.

  2. Charles

    My own position is very close to my understanding of the Government’s position.

    No to single matket membership.
    No to Customs Union, hopefully a new customs deal as part of a trade deal below.
    Control of our own borders.
    No to the ECJ in relation to UK legislation or as an arbiter in any deals.
    No continuing large payments although there could be samall payments for specific access.
    As good a trade deal as possible with the above caviats.

    However if we were unable to get a deal then I would still want us to leave. That would of course be painful for both parties, more so for us but to me it would still be worth it.

    I am surprised you asked I have been very clear from day one as indeed has the PM, much to her credit as far as i am concerned. I hope that helps you but why you and other remainers feel the need to endlessly speculate is really beyond me. Having triggered Art 50 i am very happy for the Governemnt to negotiate on the above terms for me.

  3. PASSTHEROCKPLEASE @ BZ

    [I]t is clear even as a person that campaigned for remain that those on the leave camp are now diasvowing what they said about the EEA or norway option being acceptable.

    Yes, but as R HUCKLE kindly posted on the previous thread, there is evidence on video of a number of leave campaigners including Farage and Hannan praising the Norway and Swiss options during the referendum campaign. Doubtless they’ll try to deny it but the evidence won’t go away. See Open Britain’s twitter video. 1m34s of “gotcha” well worth a couple of views. The page has a download option – it’s only 10 Mb but well worth saving for posterity.

    That said May has set a number of red lines which makes the whole thing impossible to carry both communities unless you allow the Norther Ireland border to be a simple loop hole. I reckon that is what they will do as an interim step it may be rather ugly but I would reckon that the Uk will then put the the border on the Irish sea after the next election or if Tories could get labour to abstain

    I think it’s more a question of the political wing of the UDA setting the red lines, given the position May finds herself in. Time will tell, of course.

  4. Please, some Leaver, tell us what the the benefits of leaving are going to be! TOH’s list is entirely negative, apart from control of our borders (which we already have)

    Those of us who think we have made a really stupid decision surely deserve a better account of the advantages of living in post-Brexit Britain than this!

    What is it you guys think is going to be so great ? Come on, tell us! You might persuade us.

  5. PatrickBrian

    Thanks for your good wishes; I have tasked my oncologist with getting me to our 60th wedding anniversary in reasonable condition so I can enjoy it. He thinks the probability of my surviving that long is high based on the slow return of my disease.

    Dr W is well respected but she has a curious history on Brexit. She is a self confessed Europhile but initially supported leave but changed her mind because she thought the Leave campaign was untruthful. Of course in part it was, but then so was the Remain campaign untruthful in part. I believe she is probably just being over cautious in her reply to you, but she may have real concerns which I don’t share.

    As to Brexit I have explained why I am not prepared to spend a lot of time explaining the many and varied reasons why I want to leave and the benefits I see in doing so. As I said to Charles I am very happy to let the government get on with it since they seem to share my basic objectives.

  6. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    I would comfortably describe myself as a hardened remainer, I am a silicon designer and contract all over the EU including Eastern Europe and thanks to us leaving my rates are gone up this year although people are hesitant to hire brits for long term contracts.

    The polls are interesting in that currently they are neck and neck after all Tories only won by 2.4% on June 8th. Since then despite being in control of the agenda and winning the election one would say they would not want to have an election anytime soon.

    In terms of the us leaving the EU from what I have read on these forums is that people have argued that even just leaving leaves the UK exposed to issues that are quite complex to resolve and have no real plan to resolve them. It is not clear what they will get from FTA from the other countries that are keen to make them with us and last I have not seen a FTA that supplies good and services that people buy and my concerns while exacerbated by Brexit are essentially the same: Political & economic system that created this situation that we are in at the moment is not fit for purpose and the EU can not be blamed for this. I believe the success of the EU has hidden these issues for quite a long time.

    If we had a plan and an economy which essentially could cope with being on our own I would be moe relaxed about the it all but from much of the evidence I see we are just hoping it will all come good.

    I do agree with you that most people that were voting leave that I spoke to on the campaign trail were not that interested in the issue that Leaving would produce, having worked in Northern Ireland and having met both peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness I believe the solution to the irish border will be let say interesting especially considering the DUP are no propping up the government. however that was ot a concern for your average voter.

    Essentially leaving for me is the easy bit deal or no deal making it work is the bit that I fear we have not even begun to understand. and as such I think we are divided in terms of the politics of this and in essence of the electorate’s understanding of what they have done.

    Now I am sure there are people that believe that we can stay, possibly EEA and the like and it is also interetsing that this was sold by Farage and Hannan
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/open-britain-video-single-market-nigel-farage-anna-soubry_uk_582ce0a0e4b09025ba310fce

    I am finding this all very interesting it reminds me of Iraq where people were in favour of the war but 12 years on cannot even remember they were in favour of it

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq/

    I am hoping that I am wrong as I hoped I was wrong about Iraq (the only time I have ever marched.) else I’ll be 0-2 for avoiding crappy outcomes.

  7. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    I would comfortably describe myself as a hardened remainer, I am a silicon designer and contract all over the EU including Eastern Europe and thanks to us leaving my rates are gone up this year although people are hesitant to hire brits for long term contracts.

    The polls are interesting in that currently they are neck and neck after all Tories only won by 2.4% on June 8th. Since then despite being in control of the agenda and winning the election one would say they would not want to have an election anytime soon.

    In terms of the us leaving the EU from what I have read on these forums is that people have argued that even just leaving leaves the UK exposed to issues that are quite complex to resolve and have no real plan to resolve them. It is not clear what they will get from FTA from the other countries that are keen to make them with us and last I have not seen a FTA that supplies good and services that people buy and my concerns while exacerbated by Brexit are essentially the same: Political & economic system that created this situation that we are in at the moment is not fit for purpose and the EU can not be blamed for this. I believe the success of the EU has hidden these issues for quite a long time.

    If we had a plan and an economy which essentially could cope with being on our own I would be moe relaxed about the it all but from much of the evidence I see we are just hoping it will all come good.

    I do agree with you that most people that were voting leave that I spoke to on the campaign trail were not that interested in the issue that Leaving would produce, having worked in Northern Ireland and having met both peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness I believe the solution to the irish border will be let say interesting especially considering the DUP are no propping up the government. however that was ot a concern for your average voter.

    Essentially leaving for me is the easy bit deal or no deal making it work is the bit that I fear we have not even begun to understand. and as such I think we are divided in terms of the politics of this and in essence of the electorate’s understanding of what they have done.

    Now I am sure there are people that believe that we can stay, possibly EEA and the like and it is also interetsing that this was sold by Farage and Hannan
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/open-britain-video-single-market-nigel-farage-anna-soubry_uk_582ce0a0e4b09025ba310fce

    I am finding this all very interesting it reminds me of Iraq where people were in favour of the war but 12 years on cannot even remember they were in favour of it

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq/

    I am hoping that I am wrong as I hoped I was wrong about Iraq (the only time I have ever marched.) else I’ll be 0-2 for avoiding crappy outcomes.

  8. NORBOLD @ Patrick

    I believe Iceland, Norway and Switzerland are all in Schengen too, without being in the the EU.

    They are, as I posted upthread. My Swiss base, where I am now, is in the Jura appx. 4 Km as the crow flies from France, where my nearest supermarket is. The deal on the Swiss side is that anyone can bring back each day appx. €500 worth of goods bought in Schengen but outside Switzerland. Neither side stops cars very often, although one does occasionally see mobile patrols checking for illegal immigrants.

  9. PatrickBrian

    Since you press me rather than leave you completely in the dark I have tried to summarise the benefits for me of leaving in a couple of sentences.

    We will regain our sovereignty, something very dear to my heart. I hate being the subject of a vassal state (with limited voting rights) in a German dominated inward looking organisation. My parents fought two wars to avoid such an outcome. I feel much closer to people from the rest of the World than I do to Europeans, maybe as a result of my extensive travels since I retired.

    Economically, I believe that once we have left we will be able to strike trade deals elswhere in the World where trade is growing, which will eventuallyfar outway any economic downside from our leaving. I also believe our leaving will result in some rebalancing of our economy, long overdue in my view.

    That’s as close as i can get in a couple of sentences. Please don’t bother to try to draw me into further argument on my views as i will not enter into debate. It’s not what this site is for. I have no doubt my views won’t change your mind anymore that Remainers arguments will change mine.

  10. I’ve been trying to work out if students voting twice would have made a happorth of difference.

    If there’s 1.85m UK students let’s suppose 1.5m are registered at home and at Uni. If they vote at uni fine – but what about those who have set up a postal vote to also vote at home? What % are likely to do that, knowing it’s illegal? 1%?

    So there’s about 15000 scattered about 650 constituencies. so if there are 100 marginals that’s about 23 per marginal. How many marginals with a majority less than that?

  11. @NickP

    Then maybe offset against votes lost due to changing registration methods?…

  12. The Other Howard,
    “We will regain our sovereignty,”
    I fear I have never understood this argument. No one in this world enjoys sovereignty. Britain cannot survive without international trade. To get international trade you have to make compromises where you accept control by outsiders. Its simple. The better the deal, the more complex it becomes and the more control you have to give up. Leave fully intend to immediately bargain away any sovereignty they might get back from the EU with alternative deals both with it and other nations. Nothing at all will be gained, and nothing can be gained.

    The whole problem I have with leave is it is promising to recover something we freely gave away in return for things we value more. But it wasnt an accident we gave them away, but a clear bargain the Uk people wanted made. And they still want that same bargain made, and polling shows it. There is no solution which can square the wish list of voters, compromises have to be made, but no one is willing to state this.

  13. @ BBZ

    “where I am now, is in the Jura appx. 4 Km as the crow flies from France”

    Near any good ski resorts? I went to Les Rousses a couple of times – quite fun on a good year, though silly prices for the size. That’s what you get for being on the Swiss border I guess.

  14. (and that’s assuming 100% of those 23 both actually vote and vote Labour)

  15. NickP

    “what about those who have set up a postal vote to also vote at home? What % are likely to do that, knowing it’s illegal?”

    That isn’t illegal. Registering for a postal/proxy vote in an election in their”other” home simply allows the voter to exercise their suffrage in elections which aren’t happening where they are currently residing – for example, by elections or local government ones.

    As I understand it, it is only illegal to cast a vote twice in elections to the same body (eg a UK or devolved nation GE).

  16. oldnat

    That’s what I meant – knowing that voting twice was illegal. My daughter voted in Reading East but could have voted in Reigate. Wouldn’t have made any difference in Reigate if she had!

  17. [email protected] OCTOBER: [re ‘The DUP being against it does not mean it is stupid’

    It is just conceivable that Lab would abstain on the basis that SF would prefer an Irish Sea border if they can’t have an invisible one. The problem is that it would be enough to prevent the DUP from supporting Lab on anything ever again, which means in the current HoC that Lab have no chance of driving out the Con government.]

    I think that this would be a likely reason for Lab to abstain. And if it happens close to the end game of the present HoC, Lab may not feel that the DUP would have much positive to offer – better to have them support the Tories who then have to own the whole Dog’s Brexit. Although Labour are Unionist re Scotland, I suspect they are far more ambivalent about NI and giving the DUP a kicking for supporting the Tories just before a GE could be attractive in its own right.

    [We do know that Lab are prioritising jobs in their aims, and we also know that many remainers voted Lab in the hope that they would go for a softer departure than the Cons, so why do you think that Lab would allow the Cons to go over the cliff edge rather than implementing an EEA deal which would keep the whole of Ireland happy as well as reducing the job losses which would follow from a Con no deal departure? How many remainers would stick with them if they did?]

    If Labour could muster a full HoC turnout against going over the cliff edge, I suspect they would be quietly happy to let the Tories and the DUP do it. It gives them plenty of scope to come back after winning a GE, get the EEA deal themselves and take credit.

    The family situation gives me plenty of scope to analyse Lab as cynically oblivious to harm being done by the Tories as long as the Tories carry the can for it. I think Corbyn is putting party before country every bit as much as Cameron did and May does.

  18. Danny

    “No one in this world enjoys sovereignty.”

    That’s not really true.

    Polities that have sovereignty can choose to share aspects of it with others, and thus don’t have total sovereignty.

    However, they retain the right to withdraw from these pooling arrangements if they no longer suit their needs, and they have calculated that leaving such a pooling arrangement (and, perhaps joining a different pool) would suit them better.

    Lots of polities have done that. Those polities without sovereignty, of course, are stuck with their lot, unless whoever is exercising external control gives them permission to leave.

    The UK already had sovereignty. If it hadn’t, it wouldn’t be able to leave the EU without the EU’s permission.

    Like you, I don’t understand the Brexiteers’ argument on sovereignty. The UK already had it.

    A sensible debate would have been about the pros and cons of pooling particular aspects of sovereignty with other polities, and on what basis.

    Within the UK, that remains a live debate, and Michael Keating raises some interesting points on the EU Withdrawal Bill.

    http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/devolve-or-not-devolve.

  19. Watson diplomatically absent from todays NEC,peace breaks out in the Labour Party ?

  20. TRIGGUY @ BZ
    I went to Les Rousses a couple of times – quite fun on a good year, though silly prices for the size.

    My Swiss place is in the Commune of St-Cergue, which extends to the CH-F border about half-way between Les Rousses proper [where there’s a Carrefour hypermarket] and the Les Rousses base station, where the lifts go up to the Dole, crossing the border into Switzerland. Sadly, the snow isn’t nearly reliable enough. There are ski lifts near the main road right down to St-Cergue village proper, but the snow on the Swiss side isn’t reliable either.

    When my [now adult] kids stay with us, they usually go to Verbier, which is only about an hour’s drive. When we were based in Geneva centre, we usually found Crozet [less than 5Km beyond the CERN border] the most reliable local skiing. OTOH, the Jura is excellent for summer walks both sides of the border.

  21. the double voting ho-hah is evidence free scaremongering by the daily mail. (which – after – is pretty much the mail’s default MO).

    Its purpose is not so much to try and annul any particular election result – or to try and delegitiamise the labour vote – it is to create mood music that allows the government to bring in tighter controls on voter id and registration. The purpose of this is not to combat (almost non-existent) voter fraud, but to suppress turn out. Its the same tactics that the republicans have been using in the US for years.

    Im sure the tories will be very keen to do this – after all,it was noteworthy that they were the only party not to issue or share a single fb post or tweet encouraging voter registration during the election campaign.

  22. @ BBZ

    Beautiful. Know it well. I lived about 10 minutes from Crozet for many years – you can probably guess where I worked, just from that! Anyway, my kids learned to ski there. To be honest, I was mostly learning too. Excellent for beginners, and very cheap when you live so close to a small resort like that. The French have it so good. Well, those that live near the mountains anyway.

  23. BBZ
    triguy

    Now i know why when i read your posts i have the feeling that you have been on the piste.:-)

  24. Brilliant Smith

    Very little chance of peace within labour unfortunately. The MPs might look cosy enough together but the membership are still seething. Conference should be interesting. I’m not sure what the membership can do if the party establishment stitches the conference up again but they won’t be happy.

  25. @PatrickBrian July 18th, 2017 at 3:20 pm

    Evidence that IREXIT is a notion (previously unthinkable)

    https://www.irishcentral.com/news/politics/respected-former-irish-ambassador-calls-for-irexit-from-europe

    I didnt say IREXIT is likely or currently has any serious level of support within the Irish population. I merely said that it is a notion that some in Ireland are already starting to consider. I’d say a former Irish ambassador is a credible member of the Irish establishment.

    @Various others …. on exactly how a deal or no deal is implemented. There are 100’s of ways that this might be handled but its not beyond the wit of man to devise adequate compromises and new procedures.

    Even with no deal clearly the current preference within both the Irish and UK/NI governments is to keep the border as soft and as close as possible to existing arrangements. I doubt either government has much of an appetite to clamp down 100% on small time indiscretions in movement of people or imports/exports between Eire & NI. Any major abuses that reared up would have to be handled reactively.

    On people it helps considerably that Ireland is not part of the Schengen area. Movement of people from NI to GB via commercial passenger flights/ferrys could require ID checks on boarding as a security measure and for non UK/Irish passport holders ther could be an additional requirement to further prove entitlement to be in the UK. This is not ideal but it may be a necessary compromise that gives the minimum inconvenience to UK and Irish nationals. There could be a security initiative between Irish and UK governments to share data on who is leaving and arriving.

    On cross border trade there should be advance electronic notification of shipments in excess of preset values or for certain truck/container sizes. This could be monitored by electronic tracking of vehicle entry/departure for example by number plate recognition on cross border roads. New systems may be needed but advance notification of goods shipment has been widespread for decades to help with customs pre-clearance.

    If the EU forces Eire to introduce a hard border then much of the resulting anger within Ireland is likely to be directed at the EU.

    I havent got all of the answers but as I say it’s not beyond the wit of man to devise suitable new processes and procedures depending on exactly how things pan out.

  26. @ Martin L

    “I havent got all of the answers but as I say it’s not beyond the wit of man to devise suitable new processes and procedures depending on exactly how things pan out.”

    Nice post, very reasonable, and could very well work. The big question though is, given their vital role in the UK government, will DUP accept a compromise? Theresa May has some red lines, but DUP probably have even bigger ones, and they have the power to insist very strongly, if they are willing. To my mind, that’s the biggest obstacle, and the one that has to potential to bring the whole thing crashing down.

  27. http://www.bbc.com/news/health-40608253

    “The NHS has been ranked the number one health system in a comparison of 11 countries.”

    “Only in one of the five themes looked at did the NHS perform poorly compared with the other nations – health outcomes. This covers general health of the population, early deaths and cancer survival among other measures.”

    The first step to fixing a problem is admitting there is a problem…

  28. Danny

    “No one in this world enjoys sovereignty.”
    Nonesense. Try making that argument to the average American.
    “we freely gave away in return for things we value more. “
    It was actually freely given away by the Heath government not the people, but I accept that there was popular support at the time as the people had been conned.
    “they still want that same bargain made”
    No they don’t, 51.9% made it clear that they wanted to leave the EU in the referendum. The latest ICM makes the point again as I posted above.
    We totally disagree on the issue and no doubt will continue to do so until we leave.

    OLDNAT
    I am surprised by your lack of understanding of my position but clearly on this occasion there can be no agreement between us on the issue.

  29. But on a more positive note at least we are all in together:

    “It is not just low-income earners who receive poor care, the NHS’s provision of care is equally poor for everybody, irrespective of income.”

  30. TOH: “there was popular support at the time as the people had been conned.”

    Exactly my view of the 2016 referendum.

    But that referendum is now an historical event. As the people gain a fuller understanding of what brexit means, they will increasingly resent that con-trick. Polling will be the guide.

  31. SOMERJOHN

    As ever we disagree totally.

  32. TOH: “As ever we disagree totally.”

    No, in this case absolutely not.

    I was agreeing with your view that the result of a referendum can be depend on voters being – as you put it – “conned”.

    Once you accept that referendums can be manipulated by the power of opinion-formers, then your claim that their outcomes are sacrosanct and unchallengeable cannot logically be sustained.

    Of course, any view, however illogical, can still be sustained by ‘belief’.

  33. The Other Howard: “We will regain our sovereignty, something very dear to my heart.”

    Regaining that so-called sovereignty means uncertainty for me [a UK citizen] and Mrs Monochrome for several years and the outworking of that so-called sovereignty may well mean that we cannot live together in the UK.

    I cannot see that you have been damaged by being in the EU as much as Mrs Monochrome and I are being damaged by your sovereignty ideals. I see nothing in this so-called sovereignty other than delusion and selfish idealism.

  34. With regard to regaining sovereignty, it seems to me the problem is that many people really believe that once we leave the EU we can go to the shops and buy misshaped fruit and vegetables and that everything will revert to pounds and ounces and feet and inches. Probably pounds shillings and pence as well.

  35. How I wish there was some more polls to talk about, rather than people trying to get TOH to think again about Brexit. You won’t, he won’t. Can’t we move on? It’s like watching paint dry.

  36. Valerie, here’s one for you

    #Italy 5 Star edges further ahead of PD in weekly EMG Acqua poll for TGLA7, Northern League advances past 15% mark, continuing run of gains. https://t.co/RFA0KR4dNT

  37. Glad you said that Valarie.

  38. TOH

    Just to round this conversation off!

    Many thanks for your explanations of your view.

    You’re right. It doesn’t change my own opinion in a fundamental way. But it does give me a better understanding of your optimism, which I think is helpful.

  39. Bremainers should be nervous about the continuing strong polling for the eurosceptic 5 star movement

  40. Somerjohn

    I was conned by Ted Heath not a referendum.

    “Of course, any view, however illogical, can still be sustained by ‘belief’.

    There is absolutely nothing illogical about my beliefs, how about yours?

    Monochrome October

    ” I see nothing in this so-called sovereignty other than delusion and selfish idealism.”

    There is absolutely nothing selfish about my idealism. I cannot prove it but it I believe my view is shared by millions of other people in the UK, and I truly believe that Brexit is in the best long term interest of the UK and it’s peoples.

    As to selfish, perhaps you should examine your own reasons for thinking as you do.

    Valerie

    Well said, the whole Brexit debate here is like watching paint dry. The sooner it happens and the country moves on the better.

    PatrickBrian

    Many thanks, at least you can respect others views if not agreeing with them.

  41. “VALERIE
    How I wish there was some more polls to talk about, rather than people trying to get TOH to think again about Brexit. You won’t, he won’t. Can’t we move on? It’s like watching paint dry.”

    Oh I dunno, it’s not as exciting as that.

    Anyway, when I mentioned this [I mean “carped” about it] I was told that these disagreements, seemingly on a tape loop, could be very informative.

    I can now see that sense of that view as I have begun to realise that TOH is definitely in favour of Brexit whereas some other peeps aren’t.

    Anyway, well earned hols. for the politicians now.

  42. Political betting has some analysis on the 50 new Labour mps.Looks as if there could be enough support there to give a Corbyn supporting successor the 39 ? nominations they will need whenever.So the big row in Brighton may well be irrelevant

    They speculate only one potential leaver -David Drew but many supporters of the single market who followed the whip on the Chukka amendment.

  43. I wonder what a victory for 5star in next year’s Italian elections would do for UK polling on Brexit?

  44. MONOCHROME OCTOBER

    @” I see nothing in this so-called sovereignty other than delusion and selfish idealism.”

    I think TOH’s response to this is very reasonable.

    Our Esteemed Host uses a very pithy phrase from time to time which I like very much:-

    Mote & Beam old chap-Mote & Beam !

  45. Colin

    “Our Esteemed Host uses a very pithy phrase from time to time which I like very much:-
    Mote & Beam old chap-Mote & Beam !”

    Isn’t that usually aimed at you?

  46. Cambridge Rachel.

    Wherever it has has been aimed has usually been an appropriate target Rachel.

    But I realise that you would never put yourself in that sort of range ,unlike the rest of us flawed political obsessives. :-)

  47. Colin

    Nicely put.

    Thanks :-)

  48. @Valerie – I agree with you that ToH will not change his mind on Brexit. (and that others will not change theirs). It is, however, worth trying to get a more detailed account of what that mind is.

    Sovereignty is not, in my mind, a very clear concept. For example, it might be thought that a country that went to war against the wishes of France and Germany was not subservient to them. This is not, however, how ToH experiences it. So is there any room for a compromise? (For example, would ToH accept Euratom as it is, or Euratom with some other body than the ECJ as the final court off arbitration or would he regard any such foreign entanglement as a loss of sovereignty?)

    In the end there has to be some sort of a compromise if the country is not to remain hopelessly divided and get the worst of all sorts of worlds. Trying to see what that might be, seems to an interesting and perhaps important task, and ToH as a staunch and ariculate Brexuter could potentially contribute to its accomplishment

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