Sunday polls

Opinium’s latest voting intention figures are CON 41%(+2), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 5%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Theresa May’s net job approval stands at minus 21, Jeremy Corbyn’s at plus 4 (though May has regained a small lead on who people think would make the better Prime Minister, 36% to Corbyn’s 33%).

Asked about Theresa May’s future, a third of people think she should resign straight away, 16% think she should go after Brexit negotiations are complete, 8% just before the next general election and 22% that she should remain and fight the next general election. Answers to this are heavily partisan, as you might expect: a hefty majority of Labour voters would like May to go now, only 9% of Tory voters. 62% of Tory voters would like her to remain PM until either shortly before the election (14%) or to fight the election (48%). Tabs for the Opinium poll are here.

There was also a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday with topline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 41%(-4), LD 8%(+1), UKIP 6%(+2). Changes are since Survation’s last online poll in mid-June, rather than their last telephone poll which showed a small Tory lead. Theresa May also still leads as best PM here, 43% to Corbyn’s 35%.

Survation also asked questions about Theresa May’s future, though their’s was a simpler should she stay or go question.45% would like her to resign, 40% would like her to stay. Again, responses are overwhelmingly split down partisan lines: 77% of Lab voters would like her to go, 78% of Tory voters would like her to stay). Asked about who should succeed her if she did go, Boris Johnson leads on 22% ahead of David Davis on 15%. 46% of people say don’t know. Questions like this don’t give us that much insight because of low public awareness of the options. The most interesting ones there asked who people would prefer in run offs between two potential leaders – between Davis and Johnson Davis wins by 36% to Johnson’s 30%. Paired against Philip Hammond Johnson only just wins, 34% to 33%, though he beats Amber Rudd by 38% to 27%. There are still lots of don’t knows, but I’m conscious that a few years ago Johnson’s popularity and celebrity would probably have seen him easily winning all three questions at a trot. The shine looks as if it may have come off Boris Johnson. Tabs for the Survation poll are here.

Finally there was a BMG poll in the Independent asking about the public sector pay cap. Questions like this are tricky – most people have huge sympathy for “frontline” public sector workers like nurses and firefighters, so the social desirability bias towards saying you’d pay a little more to give them a rise is huge (it’s what we tend to call a “drowning puppy” question in the office, as in “would you pay more tax to save this drowning puppy?”). If anything, I’m surprised only 56% said they’d be willing to pay more in tax to fund a pay rise above 1% for only occupations like firefighters, police officers, paramedics and nurses. More generally, 69% of people said the public sector pay cap should end, but asked if they’d be willing to pay more tax to give a rise to “non-emergency” occupations the split was pretty even, 42% said they would, 41% would not..

Opinium also asked about the public sector pay cap in their poll. 53% of people support ending it, 21% of people would be opposed. They also asked about it on specific jobs. Questions like this are, to some degree, just reflections of how popular or valued a role is (as well as how well paid people think it currently is). Almost 70% of people wanted the pay cap ended for nurses, 60% or more for the armed forces, police and fire service. Teachers was 56%, followed by doctors on 53%. For dentists it was only 38%. I’m intrigued about what Opinium would have found if they’d asked about less obviously sympathetic public sector jobs: local government planning officers perhaps, benefit assessors, immigration officers, refuse collectors, traffic engineers, taxmen…


480 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. “When you say they created this mess you presumably meant that the tories campaigned to leave.”
    @s thomas July 18th, 2017 at 1:35 pm

    No, I mean they were silly enough to agree to a referendum. So it’s their fault, they[1] should sort it.

    [1] The ‘natural party of government’ — haha.

  2. SThomas

    Am I wrong in remembering that you once suggested not only that the Republic would leave the EU, but rejoin the UK?

    “Just as economics led them to follow us in so it will lead them to follow us out.”

    They didn’t “follow us in”. They joined the EEC at the same time (1973). Unlike the UK they have been enthusiastic members ever since.

    “As for a hard border, so what?”
    Try saying that in Belfast!

  3. I just looked on the gov.uk website and to my surprise it says that owners of second homes aren’t generally entitled to register twice, which I must admit surprised me.

    It’s all down to the discretion of the elections team in each council by the looks of it, which probably means that there is no consistency whatever, or a postcode lottery, or however one would prefer to express it.

    As the owner of but one home it only effects me in the sense that it would have been nice to have been able to jump up and down and ask how many times Mr Dacre is entitled to vote and stuff like that, but it appears that the answer is, officially, once.

  4. @Al Urqa

    “And of course no deal WILL mean a hard border.”

    In the event of “no deal”, who exactly is going to erect the barricades for the new hard border? Ireland because the the EU orders them to do so? Will the new EU army be enforcing this border?

    Whatever happens on that you can expect further anti EU sentiment to start brewing on the Emerald Isle on both sides of the border. The prospect of IREXIT has already become a notion that was previously unthinkable.

  5. s [email protected] Urqa: “As for a hard border.so what?No–one can seriously be suggesting that the UK cannot leave the single market because of this.”

    As Patrickbrian said:
    “** The EU, acting for the Republic, won’t negotiate a deal that includes a hard border.
    ** The DUP won’t accept an Irish Sea border.
    **And May won’t budge on the Customs Union.”

    So effectively, nothing will give. And if nothing will give, something must break:
    1] The Republic has to come out of the EU against its will as you suggest
    2] We have to remain in the single market [in the context of something breaking]
    3] There is a hard border in the Irish Sea
    4] There is a hard land border and all the associated grief

    I really can’t see 1]. I can’t see 2] as a solution to the Irish border, although I can see this as an outcome of growing disillusion with Brexit. I am not sure about 4], I think the EU will want to avoid this, but it could arise if the govt take the course of no deal being better than a bad deal. That leaves 3]. I can see that if we do get as far as trade negotiations and the govt are desperate for a deal that they will find themselves in the uncomfortable position of reneging on the DUP.

    As I say, nothing will give, so something must break.

  6. MARTIN L @ AL URQA

    In the event of “no deal”, who exactly is going to erect the barricades for the new hard border?

    Why would the DUP allow that to happen when they can vote the Cons down unless Lab are just as stupid?

    MONOCHROME OCTOBER

    I can see that if we do get as far as trade negotiations and the govt are desperate for a deal that they will find themselves in the uncomfortable position of reneging on the DUP.

    Why would the DUP allow that to happen when they can vote the Cons down unless Lab are just as stupid?

    Both cases would give a Lab government a very good case for an EEA style deal which would be acceptable to most remainers as well as those leavers who believed Hannan & Farage when they praised the EEA as an acceptable result.

  7. On the subject of ongoing breakdowns by overconfident Leavers, the extremely loud and public one former Tory darling turned indiscriminate rampaging menace Dominic Cummings promises to be hugely entertaining – if excruciating for Leavers.

  8. For those of us who remember the Irish border controls before the troubles will remember they were porous to say the least one could say operated in a unique Irish way .
    I would suggest even with a hard brexit a similar unique way will emerge in the movement of trade and people along that particular border.

  9. @trigguy et al

    I think that this discussion about writing off all student debts, and whether or not Labour are committed to it, is misleading. At present, as I understand it, there are two reasons for a government to prefer to fund universities through student loans:

    First, is that if you have a graduate tax, you cannot tax graduates of UK universities beyond the UK, including UK citizens working outside the UK. With a student loan you can.

    Secondly, because for any individual loan there is always a theoretical chance that it will be paid off within the 30 year period, the actual cost of writing off the student loan is deferred for 30 years and only then will it appear as a government debt.

    Now, it is this second issue that concerns me. In effect, we are storing up a massive debt that the Government in 30 years time will have to pay for and this I see as intergenerational unfairness.

    I would like to see the NAO insisting on adding the amount of the debt that is expected to be unpaid after 30 years (around 45% at the last reckoning a few years ago when £9k fees came in) to the Government’s debt level annually. This might actually cause people to question whether charging such high fees is actually desirable; most graduates could expect to pay off their fees if they were £3k or less.

    Now, if Labour are determined to write off all existing student debts they have a simple way to do it by issuing gilts with a range of maturities up to 30 years to replace the student loan repayments that would have been made. At £100 bn over 30 years we are looking at an average of £3.3 bn/yr or approximately 0.5p on income tax. This does not seem to be an unreasonable burden.

  10. @ MARTIN L
    “@Al Urqa
    “And of course no deal WILL mean a hard border.”
    In the event of “no deal”, who exactly is going to erect the barricades for the new hard border? Ireland because the the EU orders them to do so? Will the new EU army be enforcing this border?
    Whatever happens on that you can expect further anti EU sentiment to start brewing on the Emerald Isle on both sides of the border. The prospect of IREXIT has already become a notion that was previously unthinkable.
    July 18th, 2017 at 2:20 pm”

    A very long time ago, i did have some dealings with Northern Ireland ( before the recent peaceful times) and from what i can remember , there were always border issues. When petrol and diesel were cheaper south of the border, people in NI used to buy it in bulk and store in large containers in their back gardens. There was a trade in fuel going on and a number of problems with fires and leakage.

    My personal opinion is that whatever the outcome of Brexit talks, there will be no real border implemented between Ireland and Northern Ireland. All that will happen is that anyone travelling between Ireland/NI and UK will need a passport, not just any other currently accepted ID e.g driving licence. Also any goods imported/exported between Ireland/NI and UK will be subject to full border checks including any customs issues. The origin of goods would be checked. The UK and Ireland just won’t bother with border issues between Ireland and NI. I can’t see the EU wanting to cause problems with this.

    Irish issues won’t stop Brexit. It will be economics that might cause a second referendum to be held and people might change their minds. Recent polling suggests that most people who voted Labour want a second referendum and overall the country was split equally.

  11. MARTIN L

    “The prospect of IREXIT has already become a notion that was previously unthinkable.”

    Evidence please?

    (There is none!)

  12. [email protected] OCTOBER: “Why would the DUP allow that to happen when they can vote the Cons down unless Lab are just as stupid?”

    The DUP being against it does not mean it is stupid. Lab don’t have to vote for it either for it to go through. So the Cons would own it. It has to come fairly late in the sequence of events as the last piece to be put in place in a no deal scenario where the choice is either the sea border or a land border with the resulting tensions.

    You are talking very much in the scenario that there is a good enough deal for no border, where I would agree with you. But the issue is what happens in the no deal scenario. What do you think will break there or do you think that the Irish Border will break the no deal scenario?

  13. According to Huffpost Matt Singh (not commenting on criminality but on effect) indicated that it is unlikely to have made an impact on the lection outcome.

  14. The EU have been clear that they need sufficient progress on NI, as well as citizens rights and paying the bills, before any Trade talks.

    So far they have been pretty consistent.

    I would suggest that a breakdown over these primary negotiations – and I am pretty sure Barnier will keep faith with the Republic over the border – will lead to no trade talks and no trade deal – the hardest of Brexits. If relations sour any more, it may lead to a trade war. I have no doubt which side would win that.

    Of course the political developments suggested by AL URQA and BZ may well pre-empt this. I hope so.

    Or they may not.

    In practicalities – manning it and controlling it – the hard internal border would of course be an expensive mess on both sides. And really really annoying if you live near it (I have relatives who do).

  15. @MARTIN L

    At present anyone can walk over the border and catch the ferry to the UK anyone you need not show any ID. I have actually cycled from belfast to dundalk and did not know I was in Ireland such is the myriad way you can get to the republic from Northern Ireland.

    If you keep the border that way then you have no passport control from an EU country to the UK basically you have freedom of movement. Now as I understand it the UK would not care about freedom of movement of goods but of people I think there is an issue and that is why there will have to be some form of border somewhere.

    Now I am not sure that there is a solution that is acceptable to all considering the symbolism of certain solutions

    but I think two option are pretty much off the table.
    1. Ireland leaving the EU which will be painful for Ireland both Economically and Polticially

    2. No border anywhere due to the fact that it is a loop hole which could be exploited by goods and people.

    So there has to be a solution essentially you cannot have schengen style process between on the British Isles when one side is in the EU and the other is not

    Now If Ireland were to leave the EU then you are right that is a solution but are you telling me that is going to happen?

  16. It seems to me to be unlikely that the EU will make any sort of arrangement with the UK over NI and Ireland other than to permit the UK to have third country status. This will mean no “frictionless ” border.

    To do anything else is against the interests of the EU. It does not seek to punish the UK. It does wish to signal to countries, within the EU, that there will be no advantages gained by leaving the EU. It also wishes to head off all possible claims by all countries outside the EU – “third countries” that it can be inconsistent in the application of regulations.

    And if there is to be an “invisible” border (and a border with “friction” over the movement of goods) this may be what you get.

    “Maintaining a truly invisible border if there is to be ‘friction’ in the movement of goods across the EU’s external border on the island of Ireland would pose three major areas of risk:

    The first comes in terms of the effectiveness of border management: how can compliant trade and illegitimate trade be distinguished, and how can one be facilitated and the other be stopped, with absolutely no physical infrastructure and a complete reliance on the traders themselves to comply with the complex systems of customs controls on both sides of the border?
    The second comes in terms of the risks to the economy and to citizens on both sides of the border if there is a growth in black market activity across the border – something that will become incredibly lucrative.
    The third comes in terms of the rising capacity for surveillance and electronic monitoring that may accompany the growth in a state’s desire to be able to track movement across a border in ‘hidden’ ways.
    None of these three things are in any way desirable in the Irish context – indeed, they only exacerbate the existing dangers and difficulties in the border region. If a frictionless border is impossible, and an invisible border undesirable, all hope lies in the capacity of all players for flexibility and imagination.”

  17. @R HUCKLE

    That is a de facto border between the Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. I think you would admit that if you talked to any unionist politician in Northern Ireland that would be a no no. These people are not talking because of how to recognise the Irish language officially, respectfully I would think that solution although straightforward in terms of implementation would be interesting to do

    Ihave to admit is has been 5 years since I working in Northern Ireland and on the plane from bristol to belfast you needed to show some ID but on the ferry from liverpool I did not. To a unionist it would the equivalent of having to show your passport at the scottish english border or as you drive in or out of London. Think of the symbolism of that…..

  18. CR

    How many people who voted in referendum do you think (a) Have any idea who Cummings is or (b) or on the off chance did know would be in anyway upset by what “the career psychopath” has to say.
    And yes I did have to look him up to see who you were talking about.

  19. With a “friction” border this might also happen. these comments are from the Slugger blog post to which I linked earlier (I see Barbazenzero has already been).

    “I don’t think people are as subservient as they were 50 years ago. As Eamon Mc Cann said Customs posts will just be torn down. I can see a huge support for that position and huge opposition to the EU telling Irish people they are going to damage their economy because of some spat with England.”

  20. @Turk

    he is an attention-seeker who is very well connected. He also won you your referendum.

    The angrier he gets the more he will pop up in the media making insightful, amusing and extremely cruel statements about everything to do with the Leave process. Having the bloke who ran the successful campaign going on the rampage against him will be exceedingly unpleasant for David Davies et al. it will be rich entertainment for the rest of us.

    ‘Thick as mince, lazy as a toad and vain as Narcissus’ will follow Davies around for the rest of his career, not least because it’s all true.

    There’s plenty more where that came from.

  21. I put up this link much earlier. Here it is again with some extracts. It also raises issues – how far -if at all – would Unionists tolerate significant cross-border co-operation?

    http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/brexit-and-island-ireland

    “However, while this provides some assurances of the importance of the issues facing the implementation of any Brexit agreements for the island of Ireland, it leaves many uncertainties for the 30,000 people who cross the border each day to work and the many integrated business and public services that have grown up across the border since the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. There are already signs that some businesses are relocating across the border to ensure that they can have access to EU legislation, market agreements and, particularly for agri-food business, access to beneficial WTO subsidies that will be lost following Brexit. In public services, the provision of specialist health care facilities that now operate across the border is regarded as very uncertain by some who rely on these for themselves and their families.

    While these negotiations and uncertainties continue, there is one approach that could give some certainty to the relationships across the border on the island of Ireland that could be implemented now and could bridge Brexit into whatever follows. This is using an EU Regulation that supports the creation of agreements of European Groupings for Territorial Cooperation (EGTC). Originally established in 2006 , the Regulation supporting these agreements was simplified in 2013 as part of the wider territorial packages for cohesion and Trans European Networks. So what are EGTCs and how might they offer any help in the island of Ireland both now and in the future?

    The EGTC allows public bodies in different member states to come together under a new entity with a full legal personality and is designed to ‘facilitate and promote territorial cooperation (cross-border, transnational and interregional). This can include the provision of investment, public services and other cross border agreements and running public transport services, hospitals, managing development projects, exchanging good practices. The EGTC can be established by two or more member states. The Regulation also allows the inclusion of third party states that are not part of the EU. The EGTC can include public bodies and local and regional authorities and it must have an assembly comprising of representatives of the area and a director. The EGTC’s activities are defined through its establishment and it must set a budget and a work programme. EGTCs can be in receipt of EU funding but may also include other funding streams in their programmes.

    While there are no EGTCs in the UK or Ireland, in 2016 there were 63 different groupings registered across the EU. These including EGTCs across the borders between France and Belgium in Flanders, across the border between Spain and Portugal in Douro and between Spain and France in the Pyrenees. They are also used for external EU borders such as the grouping for Hungary and the Ukraine. If the Flanders grouping is considered in more detail, it includes a variety of activities in its programme including transport, healthcare, cross border employment and economic development, social inclusion, waste and energy – all of which would be of relevance across the order in Ireland. It also includes ICT, education, research, culture, sport and postal services. In addition to considering cross border services this EGTC has also established some thematic approaches to cross border issues including the consideration of water courses, rural areas, urban areas and maritime cooperation. In terms of tools it is using spatial planning, infrastructure and housing programmes, identifying where there are blockages to working and using legal means to attempt to overcome them if this is appropriate.”

  22. For the sake of clarity, CR in turks last comment is Chris Riley and not myself

  23. For the sake of clarity, CR in turks last comment is Chris Riley and not myself

  24. CRiley

    I rather think that’s what you want to hear anything that denigrates brexit those that voted out on the other hand probably think he’s a Pratt I voted remain and since you’ve drawn my attention to him I think he’s a egotistical pratt as well.

  25. SAM

    very interesting link – thanks again!

    I didn’t know about EGTCs. The fact that regulations allow them with non-member states is encouraging, though it doesn’t look as if it’s ever happened, and I don’t really understand how it can happen with the issues of tariffs and immigration. But a ray of hope.

  26. SAM

    correction: the article says: “They are also used for external EU borders such as the grouping for Hungary and the Ukraine”.

    Do you have any idea how that works?

  27. R HUCKLE @ MARTIN L @ AL URQA

    Irish issues won’t stop Brexit.

    Why not? Do you believe Corbyn will lend May Lab votes to enable it? If so, why would he do so, and for how long would the DUP honour the C&S deal?

  28. R HUCKLE @ MARTIN L @ AL URQA

    Irish issues won’t stop Brexit.

    Why not? Do you believe Corbyn will lend May Lab votes to enable it? If so, why would he do so, and for how long would the DUP honour the C&S deal?

  29. MONOCHROME OCTOBER @ BZ

    The DUP being against it does not mean it is stupid

    It is just conceivable that Lab would abstain on the basis that SF would prefer an Irish Sea border if they can’t have an invisible one. The problem is that it would be enough to prevent the DUP from supporting Lab on anything ever again, which means in the current HoC that Lab have no chance of driving out the Con government.

    We do know that Lab are prioritising jobs in their aims, and we also know that many remainers voted Lab in the hope that they would go for a softer departure than the Cons, so why do you think that Lab would allow the Cons to go over the cliff edge rather than implementing an EEA deal which would keep the whole of Ireland happy as well as reducing the job losses which would follow from a Con no deal departure? How many remainers would stick with them if they did?

  30. PASSTHEROCKPLEASE @ MARTIN L
    So there has to be a solution essentially you cannot have schengen style process between on the British Isles when one side is in the EU and the other is not

    But Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are all in Schengen, so the Anglo-Irish CTA could be retained if the UK remains in the EEA.

  31. Patrickbrian

    yes you are wrong. I have never suggested that Eire will rejoin the uK.

    That would be far too sensible :-)

    I do maintain though that given 5 years in an increasingly federalist and centralizing EU with the US and UK in a free trade deal they will want out.

  32. Thought this article by Peter Kellner suggestng there were 4 possible outcomes to the Brexit negotiations interesting

    http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/71558

    Personally I cannot see Option 1 ever happening, so for me it comes down to options 2,3 and 4. If I had to guess I think we would fudge it with option 3.

  33. More speculation from our Remainer friends I see. Just when I thought we were getting back to polling.The wonder to me is that they still cannot understand that it is happening; we only have 619 days to wait now.

    In the real World on the polling front the latest ICM seems to confirm the reduction in the Labour lead.

    Fascinating to see that on Brexit, where three options were presented by ICM by far the most popular at 46%, was the UK leaving the EU regardless of what happens in negotiations. Very good news for those who want Brexit to mean leaving the EU in the fullest sense.

  34. @BARBAZENZERO

    I understand that but but it is clear even as a person that campaigned for remain that those on the leave camp are now diasvowing what they said about the EEA or norway option being acceptable.

    As I said previously we are stuck in a quandry of the UK electorate voting for something that politicians will find hard to deliver because most of them understand enough of the issues to not be in favour of it. Then there is the complexity of leaving and what replaces it. This again was not stated to the electorate whom felt all we had to do is leave. We have sold policy as simple soundbite and there being a lack of complexity. even the discussion around the Norther Ireland border has a combination of practicality issues, symbolism for the two communities involved and and the problem between the two entities ostensibly negotiating the deal. Add the complexity of the DUP being effectively in government and you can see the problems

    That said May has set a number of red lines which makes the whole thing impossible to carry both communities unless you allow the Norther Ireland border to be a simple loop hole. I reckon that is what they will do as an interim step it may be rather ugly but I would reckon that the Uk will then put the the border on the Irish sea after the next election or if Tories could get labour to abstain

  35. Eire

    Anyway people are simply creating obstacles .If NI wants the benefits of no internal border then the price is the coast border. British passport holders to the left (no check) Irish and others to the right (to be checked). If they do not wish for this they can have a hard internal border and the uK government can get its cheque book out again .It is not insuperable.

  36. @S THOMAS
    Anyway people are simply creating obstacles .If NI wants the benefits of no internal border then the price is the coast border. British passport holders to the left (no check) Irish and others to the right (to be checked). If they do not wish for this they can have a hard internal border and the uK government can get its cheque book out again .It is not insuperable.

    Don’t know if it is just me but I can see a glaring problem with your solution, surely anyone trying to come in illegally would go in the queue where there are no checks?

  37. ToH – those bigger leads was just post poll froth for the perceived GE winner which as we know was Labour.

  38. JIMJAM

    I agree those larger leads were probably froth. I would also agree that to many Labour were the perceived winner, but actually it was the Conservatives.

    All to play for now.

  39. @SAM

    I am not sure what the EGTC agreement is between Hungary and Ukraine involves but Ukrainians still needed visa to come the EU until May of this year when they were accepted into schengen. Moreover Ukraine are keen to join the EU which is very different to that of the UK

  40. neilj

    a bit like a soft border then.

  41. TOH

    A little while ago you said you had talked to your oncologist, who said there was no reason to worry about the consequences of leaving Euratom for radiotherapy. Other posters gave other anecdotal evidence

    I have the same disease as you, so this is a matter of some importance to me. I wrote to my MP, Sarah Wollaston, who as a politician as well as an MP, I thought was well qualified to give an opinion on this, and thought you (and others) might be interested in her response:

    “Thank you very much for taking the time to email me.

    I was so sorry to hear that you have been going through radiotherapy and I do hope you are recovering well.

    With regard to Euratom, this issue is something I actually originally flagged up when it was hidden in the small print notes back in January. I agree that our exit would have serious implications.

    I am hopeful that there will be a change in the current position on Euratom and assure you that I am in discussion with a number of colleagues, all working together to make the case. This is being spearheaded by Ed Vaizey on the Conservative side but joined by many colleagues from across the House of Commons, myself included.

    As chair of the Health Select Committee I also hope to persuade the future committee membership, who have not yet been elected, to look at the medical aspects of Euratom when the committee meets after the summer recess. As chair I do not have the power to decide the subjects for inquiries without their permission.

    Thank you for getting in touch. ”

    Perhaps your oncologist was wanting to reassure you. I find Sarah W’s response more realistic.

  42. ToH – and maybe Polldrums for a month or 2 perhaps even until what could be a very febrile conference season, small Lab leads that means little but helps morale.

  43. @S THOMAS
    neilj
    a bit like a soft border then

    Yes and for that reason a non starter without EU agreement, which I can’t see happening unless we are in rthe single market or something very similar which means we sign up to the four freedoms.
    Which takes us right back to the conflict between what the EU and UK want

  44. @ToH

    Very good news for those who want Brexit to mean leaving the EU in the fullest sense.

    Can you spell out in concrete terms what ‘leaving the EU in the fullest sense’ would mean?

    Presumably it would include no trade deal, supply chains involving customs duties and much bureaucracy, out of Euratom, out of the free skies deal, WTO terms or worse for welsh lamb etc,

    Obviously it would also involve good things from your point of view. A list of good and bad things (or do you think there will be no bad things) would be helpful as it would start to define what we should be trying to negotiate. I doubt we will get what we want but we might at least make a start at defining what it is!

  45. PatrickBrian

    Sorry, I have no idea how the EGTC works with Ukraine and Hungary. I think all kinds of co-operation is possible as long as the rules are followed

  46. SAM

    PTRP, above, wrote that “Ukrainians still needed visa to come the EU until May of this year when they were accepted into schengen.” I have no idea how they can be part of Shengen without being in the EU.

    Need to know more!

  47. SAM

    Ah ,got it – they can now travel to Shengen countries without a visa (though I presume with passport).

    Still no wiser though about how ECGT worked with countries that needed visas!

  48. PatrickBrian

    No, I’m sure he was not, as I explained we know each other very well. Personally I am quite relaxed about it. You should be as well but that’s up to you of course.

    Since we share a condition I hope things work out well for you. I am a great believer in keeping as fit as I can at my age, hence my allotments and lots of walking. This approach is very much encouraged by my oncologist. Although i have a high Gleason score I have survived over 14 years since diagnosis although I am not cured, it is returning slowly at the moment.

  49. Patrick

    I believe Iceland, Norway and Switzerland are all in Schengen too, without being in the the EU.

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