Sunday polls

Opinium’s latest voting intention figures are CON 41%(+2), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 5%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Theresa May’s net job approval stands at minus 21, Jeremy Corbyn’s at plus 4 (though May has regained a small lead on who people think would make the better Prime Minister, 36% to Corbyn’s 33%).

Asked about Theresa May’s future, a third of people think she should resign straight away, 16% think she should go after Brexit negotiations are complete, 8% just before the next general election and 22% that she should remain and fight the next general election. Answers to this are heavily partisan, as you might expect: a hefty majority of Labour voters would like May to go now, only 9% of Tory voters. 62% of Tory voters would like her to remain PM until either shortly before the election (14%) or to fight the election (48%). Tabs for the Opinium poll are here.

There was also a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday with topline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 41%(-4), LD 8%(+1), UKIP 6%(+2). Changes are since Survation’s last online poll in mid-June, rather than their last telephone poll which showed a small Tory lead. Theresa May also still leads as best PM here, 43% to Corbyn’s 35%.

Survation also asked questions about Theresa May’s future, though their’s was a simpler should she stay or go question.45% would like her to resign, 40% would like her to stay. Again, responses are overwhelmingly split down partisan lines: 77% of Lab voters would like her to go, 78% of Tory voters would like her to stay). Asked about who should succeed her if she did go, Boris Johnson leads on 22% ahead of David Davis on 15%. 46% of people say don’t know. Questions like this don’t give us that much insight because of low public awareness of the options. The most interesting ones there asked who people would prefer in run offs between two potential leaders – between Davis and Johnson Davis wins by 36% to Johnson’s 30%. Paired against Philip Hammond Johnson only just wins, 34% to 33%, though he beats Amber Rudd by 38% to 27%. There are still lots of don’t knows, but I’m conscious that a few years ago Johnson’s popularity and celebrity would probably have seen him easily winning all three questions at a trot. The shine looks as if it may have come off Boris Johnson. Tabs for the Survation poll are here.

Finally there was a BMG poll in the Independent asking about the public sector pay cap. Questions like this are tricky – most people have huge sympathy for “frontline” public sector workers like nurses and firefighters, so the social desirability bias towards saying you’d pay a little more to give them a rise is huge (it’s what we tend to call a “drowning puppy” question in the office, as in “would you pay more tax to save this drowning puppy?”). If anything, I’m surprised only 56% said they’d be willing to pay more in tax to fund a pay rise above 1% for only occupations like firefighters, police officers, paramedics and nurses. More generally, 69% of people said the public sector pay cap should end, but asked if they’d be willing to pay more tax to give a rise to “non-emergency” occupations the split was pretty even, 42% said they would, 41% would not..

Opinium also asked about the public sector pay cap in their poll. 53% of people support ending it, 21% of people would be opposed. They also asked about it on specific jobs. Questions like this are, to some degree, just reflections of how popular or valued a role is (as well as how well paid people think it currently is). Almost 70% of people wanted the pay cap ended for nurses, 60% or more for the armed forces, police and fire service. Teachers was 56%, followed by doctors on 53%. For dentists it was only 38%. I’m intrigued about what Opinium would have found if they’d asked about less obviously sympathetic public sector jobs: local government planning officers perhaps, benefit assessors, immigration officers, refuse collectors, traffic engineers, taxmen…


480 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. Tories down surprisingly well!

  2. Interesting polling on Boris – whilst he’s still a very effective communicator he’s not as popular as he used to be. I would say ‘peak Boris’ was probably around 4 years ago, when he was still London Mayor (but not MP) and before the EU referendum campaign and his status as a Brexiteer, which damaged his stance with a lot of liberal professional voters – the sort in London who had happily voted for him in 2008 and 2012.

    I personally think his chance to be leader has been and gone. Regarding other potential Tory leaders, is Sajid Javid still seen as one to watch or has his stock fallen?

  3. Given the disaster of the GE for the Tories, and the debacles since over Grenfell and the worse-than-tawdry DUP deal, what will please them in these polls is just how well, as a party, they are doing. To be only a few points adrift of Labour in such circumstances is actually pretty good. And to hear that TM still leads Corbyn in the best PM stakes is something Labour ought to pay full attention to.

    But I still think TM should go. She’s certainly lost the confidence of the country but also, I expect, amongst the large majority of Tory MPs even if they’re not prepared to say so publicly. The blame for the self-inflicted disaster of the past 2 months is very much hers and not the wider party. Every appearance of TM is a reminder of failure, and the only way for the Tory party to deal with that is to change leader, regroup and move on. The sooner they do it the better for them in the long term.

  4. BALDBLOKE
    Every appearance of TM is a reminder of failure, and the only way for the Tory party to deal with that is to change leader, regroup and move on.

    That would be true if the Cons had anyone in their ranks who they believed could be capable of negotiating a successful departure from the EU. That such potential candidates for PM are not already fighting like rats in a sack implies that they don’t have anyone who fits the bill.

  5. I doubt if the main Corbyn supporters will be concerned that a seriously damaged PM like May leads him, even now, as best for the job.

    But they should be.

    There is a big difference between making “predictions” and simply analysing, possibilities and probabilities, as best as one can. I wouldn’t put any of my own money on any possible scenario over the next four years or so.

    There are simply too many elements in this messy equation right now but “best PM” is surely a significant factor and May is about as down as a PM can get so it’s an odd time to be behind on that.

    Much depends on the old “events” mantra. May could conceivably make an impressive comeback [unlikely] or, if not, the Tories next leader could be a brilliant choice or a really silly one.

    On the plus side the footy season is nearly upon us again and there are more important things to worry about.

    [Also, is tuning my second string down to a to play Bach’s Chaconne a good idea or not?]

  6. Are we entering polldrums?

  7. JIMJAM

    I think the Tories are playing for extra time at the moment – get through the summer recess, and then hope things improve or get a sub on, before it goes to penalties.

  8. Finally getting a chance to plow through the Survation tables. Quite a few fun questions. Here’s a few random thoughts so far:

    Page 14: Just a quirky small detail. 6 out of 29 UKIP voters in 2017 said they’d now vote to stay in the EU. Do they know what UKIP’s (essentially) single real policy is?

    Page 21: Only 16% think that Brexit is being handled well, though many are on the fence. Even amongst Con voters only 30% go for the ‘handled well’ option, with 50% or more sitting on the fence. Are some of those Cons sitting on the fence also a little unhappy, but being loyal? I think this is relevant to what people have said about perception of Brexit. What matters is whether the public think that the government are doing a good job, and at the moment it appears not, in general.

    Page 22: How much should the ‘divorce bill’ be. Almost 50% of all polled think it should be zero. Seems likely they are going to be disappointed. It doesn’t get much better, more than 70% think it should be 10bn or lower – this may also be rather unrealistic. The interesting thing about this figure is that it’s pretty flat across all demographics: VI, location, age, etc. UKIP voters prefer zero divorce bill (unsurprising) and only London seem to expect it to be on the higher side.

    Anyway, that’s what I’ve got so far, still more pages to study.

  9. Tory VI holding up, Labour coming off the boil, and TM not doing too badly considering. Not a great deal of change overall.

    Will need to keep an eye on UKIP though – is it recovering a little with all the recent bad news surrounding Brexit?

  10. Labour will be disappointed that their surge in the polls appears to have ended. Slightly ahead at the moment but not much in it.
    The Tories will be relieved that their vote remains solid at the moment but the acid test remains Brexit. On this front it’s just the beginning. The phony war is over.

  11. @TRIGGUY

    Describing it as a ‘divorce payment’ might be said to be a mite leading.
    Another way of putting it (perhaps equally leading) would be ‘On leaving the EU, should the UK pay for a) all the things it has agreed to pay for whilst a member b) some of what it has agreed to pay c) none of its debts

  12. I would never outright dismiss the fact TM still leads on best PM but that lead has collapsed from 30 points 2 months ago. It looks as if the Tories have platued some what and the initial bounce Labour got is now a small lead. Still unheard of though the government typically shouldnt be behind in the polls in the few months after the election. Things arent going to improve for TM. Inflation is going up, tge ORB forecast predicts the closing of the deficit to be ofset by a loss in revenue in the next quarter, etc.

  13. Three things

    1. Tories should be pleased at the vote share considering the issues they face
    2. Labour should be pleased at their voteshare since they breaking the 40% barrier now

    3. The small parties should be very unhappy as the seem to be the ones losing out here

    4. I still think that Corbyn is toxic in some places in the North and Midlands but I think as we go through a tough period that might change

    5. Public sector pay is going to be the Tories achilles heel for the length of parliament and will will in work benefits but if you major on fiscal policy then I think the problem will alway be there

    6 Hammond 10% premium is going to be interesting
    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/r97.pdf

    I am not sure that that is true, I know it is true for women but I think the reason is because they are allowed to work flexi-time to look after children (my partner got a pro rata rate such that she was off for all the school holidays.

  14. GUYMONDE
    @ TRIGGUY

    ‘divorce payment’

    still shows 70% of the population a little out of touch with reality though, doesn’t it?

  15. TRIGGUY

    What about the 38% who thought that Brexit would be good for the UK economy generally, as against the 15% who thought it would be good for their personal finances. What do you think of those ones?

    The Tory leadership questions seem to me to support SThomas’s point: with this opposition, Theresa May is safe (for now)

  16. P the R

    “Three things”

    That was SIX things twice !!

  17. I agree with Baldbloke that the Conservatives should be reasonably pleased, in both polls the Labour lead has dropped from 6 points to 2 points. If there was a general election tomorrow the older generation would vote overwhelmingly to return the Conservatives. So it is still the young who want Labour. In both polls May is seen as best to be PM, by 3% in the Opinium poll and 8% in the Survation poll. In the Opinium poll 46% want May to stay until Brexit negotiations are completed, compared to 33% who want her to go now. Personally I agree she has to go but in my view not until the EU negotiations are complete so that Davis could be a candidate.

    As regards Brexit which Survation covers, there seems to be no real change on the question of leaving the EU, still a roughly even split with Leave slightly ahead. There is no appetite for a large settlement with the EU, 46.9% want no payment and 25.6% no more than £10b, so most seem to support the Boris comment on this issue. May has a clear 9.7% lead over Corbyn on who is best to negotiate our leaving the EU, May 42.4%, Corbyn 32.7%. If May said no deal was better than the deal on offer then 42.4 % would accept her judgment and 39.1 % would not, a lead for May on this of 4.3%. I feel most of the other questions on Brexit are rather loaded, obviously it’s difficult to ask questions which aren’t so I won’t comment.

    Those who want to leave the EU in the fullest sense should be mildly encouraged by these figures, all IMO of course and only one poll.

  18. In the Survation poll, it is noticeable that the 18-34s have been weighted up by 32.6% whilst the 35-54s and 55+s have been weighted down by 10.2% and 7.8% respectively.

    I can’t help but wonder whether this may be an early summer effect. Most 55+ers will take their holidays outside the peaks on cost & heat grounds whilst many 35-54ers will be waiting for their kids’ school holidays, but many 18-34ers will be taking their summer breaks now before peak season hotel & fare charges apply.

    Could this be enough to cause the diminished Lab lead?

    From p4 of the Survation tables:
    Weight, 18-34, 35-54, 55+
    Unweighted, 221, 391, 383
    Weighted, 293, 351, 353

  19. BALDBLOKE

    @”the only way for the Tory party to deal with that is to change leader, regroup and move on.”

    Just a slight note of caution (for the Tory kamikazes )

    At the last GE 3 times more people voted Con because they were anti Corbyn, than voted Labour because they were anti-May.

    Labour’s Manifesto was their biggest GE vote generator.-nearly 3 times as big as Cons was for them.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener/

  20. I’m a good deal less sure that Tories should garner any great satisfaction from these polls. I really don’t think they have hit the rough times yet.

    What tends to happen when a government/PM is popular, is that when bad things come along, they are given the benefit of the doubt and either the blame is placed elsewhere, or the mood is ‘the other lot would be worse’.

    Where events and circumstances start to have real traction is when the government/PM suffers one of those ‘lost credibility moments’. It happened to Thatcher over the poll tax, Major over Black Wednesday, Blair over Iraq (although that was a bit of a slow burn) and New Labour as a whole over Northern Rock and the financial crash.

    Once these big events happen, the path back to credibility is very hard. Not only does the government start getting blamed for all manner of things, but the opposition tends to get a boost as people look for an alternative.

    These events are rarely overnight occurances (although Black Wednesday as the stand out example still gives the impression that one terrible 24hrs can destroy a government).

    Here, May in particular, but the Conservatives in general, have had their lost credibility moment, which has come in the form of a self inflicted election nightmare. Not only did they lose their majority, but May herself was exposed as an incompetent camaigner and as well as having an empathy bypass at birth. She is toast, although the bread hasn’t yet been sliced.

    What is happening now is that each little issue will be viewed differently. Gone is the tub thumping about how Brussels are doing us down – instead, May is pleading for help from her opponents. The carnage of the Brexit negotiations is becoming all too apparent, and the economic impacts have also coincided with the loss of credibility.

    Corbyn still remains unpopular with many, which provides a counter balance to Tory woes, but my strong suspicion is that this weak government, shorn of it’s mantle of credibility, will limp through the next few months and years, getting progressively less and less authoritative and closer and closer to it’s own demise.

    Taking pleasure from a single weekends polls that show things being not as bad as they were is, I feel, misleading. We are in one of those downward spirals, and I suspect it will be the pattern for some time to come.

  21. @ GuyMonde

    “Describing it as a ‘divorce payment’ might be said to be a mite leading.”

    Yes, that’s an excellent point. Survation’s words not mine, I hasten to add. Might be nice to have a different survey with the question posed in a different way.

  22. I rather suspected that is what you would suspect Alec :-)

  23. TONYBTG
    FPT
    re advisability of an early GE if you are a Labour supporter, I think one is either an ‘Eeeyore’ or a ‘Tigger’ as far as this is concerned. For me, the range of POSSIBILITIES that a majority Labour govt would bring into play means I am definitely a Tigge!

  24. @ PB

    “What about the 38% who thought that Brexit would be good for the UK economy generally, as against the 15% who thought it would be good for their personal finances. What do you think of those ones?”

    That’s an odd one isn’t it. Not sure what to make of it. I’m sort of in the opposite position, in that I feared (and still fear) that Brexit may be bad for UK*, but I suspect I’ll probably get by OK personally either way. Hence I supported Remain on the grounds that I felt it was better for the country as a whole, in a similar way that this statistic suggests many people voted Leave on behalf of the UK rather than themselves.

    However, there is another dimension, maybe I wasn’t being so altruistic really, since as a parent, I worry about my children, and felt Remain would be better for them.

    * But not proven yet by any means

  25. Alec

    I was going to post something amusing and decided that would be rude so i will just say that i fundamentally disagree with nearly all of that post..

    I read it again and tried to find anything that I didn’t think incorrect. It was hard but we can agree on the following:-

    “self inflicted election nightmare.”

    I can agree with that and think it was a pivotal moment for May but not the Conservatives, I’m with Paul Croft, not you on what may or may not happen.

    “Corbyn still remains unpopular with many, which provides a counter balance to Tory woes”

    I can agree with that.

    Thats it i’m afraid, and you forgot the IMO.

    On Brexit I am very pleased with the way things are going. As I understand it Davis will be telling Bernier that the ECJ cannot be the arbiter, and quite right to.

  26. BARBAZENZERO

    Interesting point on weighting. Of course it could also mean that the Conservatives are under represented in this poll. We just don’t know.

  27. It looks like the Labour lead is fading. Unless the economy. or the Brexit negotiations, or both go sour (which is possible), I suspect theTories will be back ahead in the polls by the end of this year.

  28. @ BBZ

    “That such potential candidates for PM are not already fighting like rats in a sack implies that they don’t have anyone who fits the bill.”

    From listening to Broadcasting House this morning, the coverage of the Spectator party, I’m not sure they haven’t already started. Not so easy to find coverage elsewhere, but the first couple of paragraphs here are intriguing:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mr-grey-mr-blond-and-mr-brexit-battle-of-the-big-guns-sj0zs2pzz

    I suppose I could subscribe to find out more. But probably not. I think my Sunday already has enough excitement in it with the upcoming revelation of the new Doctor.

  29. TOH

    “On Brexit I am very pleased with the way things are going. As I understand it Davis will be telling Bernier that the ECJ cannot be the arbiter, and quite right to.”

    Blimey. If you’re pleased with the way things are going you must have some really thick rose tinted specs.

    Hold on.. Cilic is injured… back to the tennis…

  30. @PAUL CROFT

    P the R
    “Three things”
    That was SIX things twice !!

    I forot to correct the first line I was typing on my phone.
    Just put it down to low user IQ

  31. Apparently 15% think that Brexit will be good for their finances and 38 per cent that it will be good for the economy. In similar vein I think that 75% or so believe that they are of above average intelligence, Both sets of conjunctions are mathematically possible but only given some odd assumptions.

    My guess is that most of us believe that it will make very little difference to our personal futures either way. Some people with jobs in the city may fear for them and as may some in industries that are particularly dependent on foreign investment or supply lines. But unless and until there is an absolutely massive crash very few people are going to believe that the next bullet is going to be for them, People will see rising prices and so on but there are enough alternative scapegoats (Brussells, Austerity, the deficit, Bankers etc) for these to be blamed on other things.

    I also think people will answer questions about the general impact of Brexit in terms of the option they support. It is perfectly consistent to believe as ToH does that Brexit may do short-term economic harm but is worth it for greater sovereignty alone. My guess, however, is that most leavers will have made their choice for non-economic reasons and then buttress their decision with the belief that it will be economically good for he country as a whole. (Just as most Tory or Lett-wing economist always seem to predict that the policies that are, from their point of view ideologically correct, are also those most likely to be of most economic benefit to the country)

  32. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    I think that some of the Tory’s soft vote is basically because of brexit once it is done it is not clear that anyone would gain anything from it. it feels like it is seen through a separate prism to anything else.

    I feel the election will be about austerity versus what we need to do for investment. I fear that labour have not sold the industrial policy part at all there has been little about the investment bank and very little about housing which can be a huge rmultiplier in terms of pushing growth.

    Just reducing the deficit does not make for any growth and if the idea is to reduce the deficit you would need a few years of big surpluses or else you are not making any difference to interest rates

    I think if I was a Labour party I would be glad I have not won the election since it is like winning the toss seeing that the wicket is pretty dodgy and the ball is swinging viciously you go for putting them in to bat.

    On brexit

    I feel that htose of the hard brexit would be pleased, people have not broken from their beliefs as of yet and there is no strong momentum for a second referendum which for me is the only way brexit will be tempered. Although I also think people are now treating like a football team and positions are going to be entrenched again something that suits hard brexiteers

    I also believe that when you read this from David Allen Green (I have used google address to get around the paywall

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjIwuCc_I3VAhUGKFAKHawFCWoQFggoMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.ft.com%2Fdavid-allen-green%2F2017%2F07%2F15%2Fbrexit-the-day-the-whistling-ended%2F%3Fmhq5j%3De3&usg=AFQjCNEJWx_2FE00EIqW-6ivZbVeaPTI_w

    You get the impression that no matter what people think reality will take care of itself, I reckon we’ll pay 40B over 5 years we will get some form of FTA it will not include Financial services and the passporting will come with massive caveat’s I believe may cannot walk away from it or she loses the Car industry. I cannot see us not buying cars from the continent but I do see us buying more food from abroad

    I think each side will agree do differ on citizenship and I still have no idea what happens to the NI border. The only thing I can think of is to make NI look like part of the republic and then make border control to and from Northern Ireland (not something I can see getting past unionist since it would look like defacto reunification.
    Imagine unionist having to go through passport control on the ferry..

  33. PTRP.

    your ”4. I still think that Corbyn is toxic in some places in the North and Midlands but I think as we go through a tough period that might change”

    I interesting and if I might be pedantic would say add toxic with some voters in parts of North and Midlands.

    Of course he was able compensate for this with a tranche of former (recent) DNVs and a majority new voters choosing Labour. In the North, including places close to your alma mater the net effect was approx. balance with the net seats gains coming from London, the SEast and (interestingly given Brexit vote) Wales.

    This dovetails nicely with Alec’s benefit of the doubt loss for the Tories which I raised several week ago. By the end of the GE Labour has recovered some voters who at the start of the GE said the would not do so while Corbyn was leader, helped by the Tories poor campaign it has to be said. Enough of these were willing to give him and Labour the benefit of the doubt.

    I tend to agree with Alec and your implication (forgive me if I have misinterpreted) that modest bad news which may well be nothing to do the Government will lead to a swing against the Tories in the polls. Could well be a DK growth at first but Labours lead increasing from the 2-4% currently to 6-10% seems probably to me.
    Of course there is normally some swing back so arguably Labour need 10% by next spring to be in a strong position come the next GE whenever it might me.

  34. Well maybe that Labour surge is on the ebb, given that I get most of my news from sky which has been very negative re brexit and its commentary of doom and gloom regarding the Tory governments failer to win outright and its pending collapse which seems to feature almost daily in Sky news.
    It will be interesting to see what will happen if May has to call an election next year to get brexit through recently you would have thought that Corbyn was guaranteed a victory especially if you listen to the tv pundits but we see that despite everything the public still trust May more and the gap between the parties is marginal.
    I honestly think that the next GE will end in just about the same place with the Tories just hanging on propped up by a combination of older voters brexit supporters from different parties and people who fundamentally distrust Corbyn and even more McDonnell was there ever a man more unfit for office in my opinion of course.
    One thing for certain come the next GE brexit will play a large part as we will be much nearer or even passed the leaving date but I think it will be the economy and immigration back centre stage and we will see what the public think on one hand a Labour Party openly committed to removing pay caps and borrowing more increasing taxation and relax about immigration or the Tories wanting to do more or less the same just on a much smaller scale and at a different pace but also committed to trading with the rest of the world particularly America something I think Corbyn finds distasteful.

  35. THE OTHER HOWARD @ BZ
    Of course it could also mean that the Conservatives are under represented in this poll.

    Agreed, although needing to downweight us oldies suggests that may well not be the case. Alternatively, if the Cons are under represented it might be that the missing youngsters were the more affluent ones who could afford a holiday, and would have selected Con if they had been able to do so.

    It would be possible to reverse engineer some published polls from, say, May to July 2016 and identify any trends. I posted as I did in the hope that someone might already have done such analysis and saved me the effort.

  36. BZ

    To be fair to you i wouldn’t bother to do the analysis. It’s only a couple of polls. AW always says wait until there is a clear trend from several polls

    PTRP

    Sorry i could not get round the paywall. I don’t take much notice of the FT on Brexit its very biased see my post to Somerjohn. Nobody actually knows the result since it hasn’t happened yet.

  37. TonyBTG

    “Blimey. If you’re pleased with the way things are going you must have some really thick rose tinted specs.”

    Not really, i just want the UK to leave the EU and that is now underway. I’m very happy about it.

  38. Paul Croft
    Of course you should do the Chaconne. Just watching Cilic go ahead at 3-2 in the third set against Federer, after being slaughtered for two sets and breaking down in the second. If he can do it…..
    Kizumi Watanabi playing the Allemande from the suite for unaccomanied cello and improvisations on Fool on the Hill isn’t too shabby.

  39. Labour and brexit

    having heard from various labour politicians this morning i still do not understand what their position is:

    a. The tory policy is clear and unambiguous. some do not like it but most could say what it was asa general principle: out of the single market and out of the customs union
    b the EU policy is clear. no single market without free movement of labour.

  40. “I’m intrigued about what Opinium would have found if they’d asked about less obviously sympathetic public sector jobs:”

    Anything above the living wage paid to public sector workers does indeed come out of the pockets of everybody else. So it is important to ask those questions.

    It may be that we’re only prepared to pay the living wage for these jobs, and that we need to go without them for a bit to see the value.

    But that is different from getting rid of the job completely – because then you fall into the “what else are they going to do” question. If there isn’t anything else for them to do the public sector has gone from paying them to do something useful to paying them to do nothing.

  41. “having heard from various labour politicians this morning i still do not understand what their position is:”

    Look up Blairite “Triangulation” strategy. Starmer et al are masters at it.

    You hear what you want to hear and can’t do anything about it once it becomes clear they aren’t going to do what you thought.

  42. last post

    sorry didnt mean to post my last post. I had bored even myself before i finished it .

  43. “On leaving the EU, should the UK pay for a) all the things it has agreed to pay for whilst a member b) some of what it has agreed to pay c) none of its debts”

    The UK hasn’t agreed to pay anything.

    The EU is a corporate body in its own right. It decides what to contract for. The UK makes a contribution to that right up to the point where it leaves the corporation – and then it is no longer liable for anything.

    Much the same as contribution to any other corporation.

    So unless the EU can come up with ‘personal guarantees’ signed by the UK – and make those stick in court – we owe nothing.

  44. @JimJam

    “By the end of the GE Labour has recovered some voters who at the start of the GE said the would not do so while Corbyn was leader, helped by the Tories poor campaign it has to be said. Enough of these were willing to give him and Labour the benefit of the doubt.”

    Actually my take is that this didn’t really have to do with the campaign. Before the campaign started (we canvass continually round here) we were getting a lot of ‘not voting Lab at the moment because of Corbyn’ but that virtually disappeared ivernight once the election was called. It’s called focusing the mind. I remember in the Blair years loose thoughts and talk when I thought I might vote LD because they were positioned to the left of Lab (allegedly). When it came to actual elections I put all that silliness behind me tout de suite (or toot sweet as we say these days).
    When we analyse the register we will get more clues as to how many of our 8000 unexpected votes were Tory remainers and how many were young people/new voters inspired by Corbyn/manifesto

  45. @Neil Wilson

    Good idea, we could save loads by paying admirals, chief constables, ambassadors, finance directors in public bodies, judges etc the living wage

  46. Let’s cut to the real issue of the day…

    Who is going to be the next Dr Who?

  47. Guymonde – I agree than many would have come back anyhow which is why those low 20s were never in prospect for the Labour but I believe more held their nose by the end due to the respective campaigns.
    Our postal vote numbers suggest this as The Tories were ahead more than they normally would be and we think that the position changed later in the campaign.

    I actually had one older voter tell me that at they had voted Con with a postal vote but regretted it.

  48. TRIGGUY @ BZ

    Thanks for the tips. I’ll listen to Broadcasting House later on the radio iPlayer.

    Anyone who has free page views left on the Thunderer’s website might also use them on the article referred to.

    See Mr Grey, Mr Blond and Mr Brexit: battle of the big guns.

  49. @Paul Croft

    “There is a big difference between making “predictions” and simply analysing, possibilities and probabilities, as best as one can. I wouldn’t put any of my own money on any possible scenario over the next four years or so.”

    ——–

    Yes, that’s still missing the point. Actually predicting outcomes gives you summat testable to see not only if your theory is wrong, but HOW it is wrong, so you can improve it.

    E.g the failure to detect the aether confiunded expectations that led to uncovering Relativity.

    Sure, you can assume in general that a theory might have unexpected flaws, but predictions let you uncover SPECIFIC issues that can lead to improvements.

    (P.s. sorry about using words and stuff!!)

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