The Times have published their first YouGov poll since the general election. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%. This is the largest Labour lead we’ve seen in any poll since the election, though the vast majority of polls have shown them ahead. Fieldwork was yesterday and today.

Full tabs are here.

To provide the usual post-election methodology note, there’s not much change here – YouGov have gone back to removing don’t knows rather than reallocating, meaning this is pretty much the method they used earlier in the election campaign that tended to mirror their MRP model. The only significant change is that UKIP have been relegated out of the main prompt and back to “others”.


1,528 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%”

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  1. R Huckle

    “Remaining in the EU now has an 8% lead in Survation poll.”

    Thanks for your reference. Interesting and not a surprise to me since there has been a concerted drive by the Remainers to frighten the public again.

    We are leaving the EU, even the main opposition party agrees that. Happily the government are getting on with negotiating our exit and I for one am very happy to watch them do so.

  2. “Personally, he lost me at Iraq.”

    ——–

    Apparently such concerns are “just words” though. ATOS, inflated house prices, tuition fees, all such concerns are “just words” despite the fact you can see the impact on polling when Corbyn offers summat different.

  3. @Alec

    Sorry “wisdom”.

  4. Colin

    Thanks.

    In his book Macron par Macron he says that the French democracy hasn’t found the replacement for the role of the King. I don’t want to say that he meant that he found it. By the way, We Gaulle decided on the seven years presidency because that was related to the average reign of their kings (or was it 14? Anyway).

    Apart from the oft mentioned problems of the French economy there is one barely mentioned – the lack of interconnectedness of the large and SME sector. And also that they effectively abandoned the vocational training programme that they started in the mid-2000. Oh, and the internationalisation of French companies is still dependent on their government and banking relations.

    Not easy – it’s not AngloSaxon, but it is not the quasi-corporatist German either.

  5. “And most of all, I don’t think many people are listening to anything that Blair says any more”

    ———

    Well I do, even quoting him!! I guess we’ll see, if he’s right about changes to free movement, or if Blair’s giving us “just words”, like on Iraq.

  6. Don’t know whether this link will work, but it illustrates why some may be convinced about leave campaigns stance regarding EU single market.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/886199323863789570/video/1

  7. While CambridgeRachel is right saying that Melenchon is on the left of Corbyn , but I wouldn’t call him a leftist unless the defenders of the Corn Law and advocated of the Factory Acts (in this combination) were leftist

  8. Advocated = advocates

  9. Barbazenzero

    This piece from qpol adds a little to our earlier exchanges. It might explain why EEA membership may be problematic for the UK and also provide a possible solution. Maybe. The UK might prefer not to be in the EEA if there is to be another indy ref.

    http://qpol.qub.ac.uk/brexit-efta-option/

  10. TOH: “That’s very old news, and no surprise to anybody, Davis made that clear months ago. ”

    You may think that, but clearly the FT doesn’t. Their front page story was headlined:

    Britain concedes it will have to pay EU exit bill

    And the standfirst was:

    First explicit acknowledgment of liabilities likely to avert Brexit talks clash

    The key word here is ‘explicit’, ie the difference between a politician’s remark and a government statement. Plenty of brexiters had until now refused to accept the existence of these liabilities.

    One can’t say the government’s negotiating position is crumbling, because that position has never been clearly explained. But, as when an army retreats from one ill-prepared position to the next, the spectacle is unedifying. Lions led by donkeys?

  11. R HUCKLE

    It worked fine; interestingly Farage was on This Week this week and flatly and indignantly denied to Ed Balls that he had ever claimed we could remain within the single market.

    I was disappointed that neither Balls or Neil corrected him on that.

  12. R HUCKLE

    Remaining in the EU now has an 8% lead in Survation poll.
    http://survation.com/the-eu-referendum-where-the-uk-stands-today-should-the-united-kingdom-remain-a-member-of-the-european-union/

    Um no. Fieldwork dates 29 Jun – 6 Jul 2015 if you look at the tables:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Europoll-Tables-for-Release.pdf

    People never date online articles for some reason (even press releases). There is supposed to be a Survation poll out tonight though “Barring left hemisphere stooshie” to quote their twitter.

  13. RM
    And an Ipsos Mori, apparently.

    Typical, you wait ages for a poll and then two come along at the same time.

  14. The Other [email protected] October: “In answer to your request for information in your 12.13 post today.I was referring to a study( http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2017/04/03/bank-of-america-day-after-euro-predicts-7-5-depreciation-of-greek-drachma/), from the bank of America.

    The Other Howard [0950]@All Remainers: “Did you notice the Merrill Lynch report this week which supports my view that the Eurozone will break up without very major reform. There is quite a long list of economists and organisations that have the same view now.”

    Thanks for the link. OK, an indirect report, from April, re-reported in the DM today. Your link contains the nugget “German conservative daily DIE WELT that published the report wonders why the Bank of America publishes such a report at a time when speculators predicting the end of the euro have lost a lot of money.”

    Doubtless some Eurozone reform is required. But Die Welt asks a good question as to ML-BoA motivations. Are they nursing a loss on betting against the Euro surviving and trying to keep the market running while they recover their position? And talking of sneakiness, I would not put it past the EU to reform the Eurozone to avoid a break up.

  15. HIRETON @ BZ

    I agree that, by itself, the EEA option wouldn’t solve the border issue completely. It would, however, solve cross-border movement of people and allow most cross-border transport via the TIR system.

    If HMG is prepared to be reasonable [admittedly not recently shown] then the issue of regular cross-border toing and froing of animals and animal products could be met with a simple protocol which I do not believe that the EU would make any difficulties over.

  16. Re staying in the single market, these are lines from the EU’s negotiation principles:

    “Preserving the integrity of the Single Market means that the UK will not be able to participate on a sector by sector basis

    The EU “four freedoms” are indivisible and there can be no cherry-picking”

    So it suggests that we could stay in the single market but only if we were completely in it, and we would have to accept free movement of people and whatever the other two ‘freedoms’ are. This would not go down well with Leave voters.

  17. Monochrome would EZ reform be a matter just for EZ members nit the EU as a whole?

  18. Pete B: “we would have to accept free movement of people and whatever the other two ‘freedoms’ are.”

    [Snip – be civil and polite to other people please – AW]

    Anyway, fyi the four items in question are the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour.

  19. Somerjohn
    There’s no need to be pompous. I couldn’t be bothered to look it up. Anyway I thought one of the problems with the EU was that services weren’t actually a free market? Also I thought it was free movement of people, not labour. But of course you’re probably right.

    As for my views being taken seriously, I try not to express my views much. The only one in the post to which you refer was that Leave voters wouldn’t be pleased about having to keep free movement of people, which I think is pretty much fact.

  20. SAM @ BZ

    I’m not sure I follow you re the Queen’s article.

    I do accept that there would be some possibility of not being allowed to rejoin EFTA, but worst case I cannot see the EU27 not being prepared to do a separate deal, as Switzerland has, despite Switzerland being in EFTA.

  21. Apologies if already posted…

    Survation poll:
    Labour 41% (-4)
    Tories 39% (n/c)
    LDem 8% (+1)
    UKIP 6% (+2)

  22. BFR
    I know it’s all within MOE but I wonder if that poll could be interpreted as a few ‘Red Ukippers’ going back to UKIP as Labour appear to be wobbly on the EU?

  23. In terms of domestic politics the arguments around Brexit reminds me more and more to the negotiations in Brest-Litovsk.

  24. Pete B

    With something this important, I don’t think you can be proudly ignorant while taking a view.

    The relevant Freedom is of Labour, not movement itself. Anyone coming to another country within the EU who has not found work within three months, or loses it for more than three months, is not “exercising their Treaty Rights” and has no right to remain in that country. Thus my wife, for example, after thirty years of marriage, kids etc, has no right to be here and could technically be deported. Mrs Metronome also, I understand.

    Did you really not know this?

  25. Reminds meant to be remind …

  26. With respect to the Survation poll, the last time they did an online poll was 9-10 June, i.e. right after the election result. The -4 was also reflected in the telephone polling they did last time around, so this is probably accounting for that.

    It’s a 2.5 point lead looking at the tables, and it shows some interesting results. Unlike virtually all other polls, it shows that 2017 LD voters are now overwhelmingly sticking with their party (76%), and far more of them are switching to the Tories (13%) than Labour (4%) – whereas most polls so far have shown upwards of 20% going Labour and about 5% Tory. Like other polls, it’s showing about twice as many (2.7%) 2017 Tory voters going Labour than vice versa (1.4%). The swings towards UKIP are also consistent with other polls, as is Labour retaining more of their 2017 vote than the Tories.

    The most interesting result is not the VI, but the fact that by a margin of 46-39, people want a referendum on any deal. That’s big news. This is despite a 50-50 split on the remain/leave question.

    It’ll be interesting to see what MORI shows. The sample size of 800 is pretty bad by online polling standards, though. Leads to fairly high error margins. Wish we’d get some large samples so we can get a proper look at what’s going on.

  27. Back from a gloriously sunny week on Islay (mostly building sand castles) and looking forward to there being polling of the English polity on Brexit etc (since that will, largely, determine what happens to the rest of us).

    While the need for shorthand is understood, I think the common referencing of voters as “Leavers and “Remainers” is unhelpful.

    In any referendum – and especially in the Brexit one – there are many who might have been swayed either way in their vote, and whose actual vote didn’t represent a fixed opinion.

    As with indy, there are hardliners on both sides of the question, whose opinion is carved in stone, and will never change – whatever the consequences of their stance might be.

    Like tribal voters in an election, they don’t really matter. The only votes that count are the ones that may change, as their perceptions of the issue change.

  28. Survation tables here (I think):

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Final-MoS-Brexit-Poll-Tables-140717GOCH-1c0d2h4.pdf

    It’s quite a big one, going to take some digestion.

  29. PETE B

    Somerjohn was somewhat brusque but is correct on the four freedoms. The Wiki stub defines it well, with:

    The European Single Market, Internal Market or Common Market is a single market that seeks to guarantee the free movement of goods, capital, services, and labour – the “four freedoms” – within the European Union (EU).

    What the gutter press don’t mention are the limits on freedom of labour movement which no HMG has ever chosen to implement. And when they do mention the four freedoms, they usually substitute “people” for labour

    Try googling eu four freedoms and see for yourself.how sources can differ.

  30. Funny old thing people’s opinions.

    In one of the latter tables of the Survation poll there is firm lead for the Cons with Amber Rudd as the leader if a GE were held.

    But if you look at th leader preference tables, Rudd scores badly against the other potential candidates.

    So it seems that this poll shows that people might vote Tory more if Rudd were leader but when it comes to choosing a leader, Rudd is one of the least preferred.

    Pick the logic out of that one….

  31. @S Thomas – “but how do you determine that the country has changed its mind?”

    Oddly enough, I’ve come up with a perfect way of doing that. It’s the same way I’ve been suggesting for over a year now, but oddly enough, Brexit supporters seems to be a little nervous of it.

    @TOH – no, I don’t think that this is so much remainers frightening people, but much more the realities sinling in.

    There seems to be a triple track at the moment, with firstly the economic impacts being felt by consumers, secondly the drip drip of companies edging their way into EU27 countries, ad thirdly the dawning realisation amongst all, but particularly some of those in government, that leaving the EU is horribly complex with enormous potential risk.

    There is an awful long way to go from here, and I don’t make predicitons, but I personally think it’s foolish to simply assume we are leaving the EU. Time and again, politics shows us that everything can change, sometimes literally overnight. To deny this is to deny democracy itself. I currently see the odds as slightly favouring the UK remaining within the EU at the moment – although that could all change!

  32. PatrickBrian
    “With something this important, I don’t think you can be proudly ignorant while taking a view.”

    I’m not ‘proudly ignorant’ about the EU, I just don’t care enough to have researched it in detail. As for taking a view, as I explained to Somerjohn, the only view I took was to say that Leavers would not be happy about keeping free movement of labour or people. Are you disputing this? Also, as Barbazenzero says, the UK government has never exercised it’s rights to deport people from the EU if they haven’t found work. I don’t see why this situation would change, but then I’m ignorant.
    ———————————————-
    TonyBGT
    I’d be surprised if many voters even knew who Amber Rudd was, so perhaps her relative popularity is because she is not one of the others.

  33. @BZ – indeed. The TFEU clearly states that it’s the free movement of workers, and Directive 2004/38/EC deals with citizens rights, stating clearly that beyond three months there is no automatic right to reside in another country and that EU citizens living in other EU countries should not be a burden on them.

    There is a way out of this that could still preserve the four freedoms yet still appear substantial enough to persuade enough voters to put the whole Brexit thing back to bed.

    To get there, however, we need a PM with a brain and some courage.

  34. Pete B

    “I’d be surprised if many voters even knew who Amber Rudd was, so perhaps her relative popularity is because she is not one of the others.”

    If that were true, she would have come out on top in the preferences for leader. But in fact, she was the least preferred leader when measured against Johnson, Hammond, Davis et al.

    Paradoxically, she scored the best Tory VI as hypothetical leader leading the Tories in a future GE.

    In any event, it can’t be her anyway. Her majority is too small to run for leader.

  35. Alec
    There’s plenty of economic good news as well since Article 50 was triggered. e.g. record employment, lowest unemployment rate for many years, FTSE 100 and 250 well up, new jobs announced by big multinationals.

    There will obviously be some economic turbulence but let’s try to keep a balanced view.

  36. Survation poll

    Tm still preferred to jezza as pm!.Labour lead sliding.!The retirement complex that he visited today in Bournemouth might have another sale in prospect.I hope jezza picked up the prospectus.

  37. On who would make best Prime Minister:

    T. May: 43%
    J. Corbyn: 35%

    (via @Survation, 14 – 15 Jul)

    Britain Elects.

    !!!

  38. The TFEU clearly states that it’s the free movement of workers, and Directive 2004/38/EC deals with citizens rights, stating clearly that beyond three months there is no automatic right to reside in another country and that EU citizens living in other EU countries should not be a burden on them.

    I was always staggered that the issues around the freedom of movement hadn’t been addressed by the above. Admittedly I did not know the technical definitions above, but a simple change to definition to the Freedom of Movement to something like it is what I had in mind. It’s clear that there a number of EU countries where applying the above would deflate anti-EU sentiment.

    I know there are hard Leavers who are unchangeable, but getting a few percent of Leavers to change to Remain would make the difference.

  39. CMJ
    I think you’re right there, it might well have made the difference. Not much fun for spouses of various folks on here, but as they’re all so knowledgeable presumably they knew about this rule before they tied the knot.

    G’night all.

  40. first time you have been around for a whlle and I have been wanting to thank you for a very full and insightful answer to a question I posed you a whlle back. So thanks

  41. failed to add @alecf

  42. This is the bit that might be a problem with EEA membership:

    “However, it also contains a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. This could prove highly problematic for the UK go­vernment, given domestic political debate regarding immigration.”

    Associate membership of EFTA overcomes the problem

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/02/uk-shortcut-free-trade-post-brexit

  43. This pull out a Labour majority of 4.

  44. “R HUCKLE

    Remaining in the EU now has an 8% lead in Survation poll.
    http://survation.com/the-eu-referendum-where-the-uk-stands-today-should-the-united-kingdom-remain-a-member-of-the-european-union/

    Um no. Fieldwork dates 29 Jun – 6 Jul 2015″
    @Roger Mexico July 15th, 2017 at 9:12 pm

    Killjoy.

  45. “Is this a joke? Or are you actually unable to recall what the other three (not two) freedoms are?”
    @somerjohn July 15th, 2017 at 10:02 pm

    If it says Pete B at the top of the post I always skip to the next one.

  46. I think TonyBTG read the tables wrong. Amber scores no better than anyone else on the hypothetical polling for leadership. Indeed Labour had a healthy 4.3 point lead over the Tories vs Amber. I think the closest was just over 2 point lead for Labour vs Boris or Davis but these differences are small fry really.

    And, as I already pointed out, the Labour lead has slipped vs the previous online poll but that was over a month ago – and these changes were reflected in more recent telephone polling. So this is unlikely to be a change that has happened in the past two weeks.

    That said it would be interesting to see whether or not the story with the Lib Dems is repeated in other polls. I personally don’t believe there are more 2017 LD voters now voting UKIP than Labour, and virtually all other polls would agree with that. Also, so would common sense. This is important as much of the Lanour lead depended on a bunch of LDs being added to the pile. Indeed if the crossbreaks between Lab and LD were as other polls were, the lead would be about 4 points, well in line with the other polls.

  47. TRIGGUY
    “, I don’t think many people are listening to anything that Blair says any more…”

    Blair’s credibility on Europe has to be measured against that of, say David Davies and Boris: on that count his concept of a two-tier EU can be seen to have some credible foundation, primarily in the need which the EC and EU Parliament are encountering and solutions being offered in respect of the very different views by diflerent governments on labour movement and migration, notably of East and Central European governments whole electorability hangs on keeping Islamic and especially Turkish migrants out, in the context to them of what is a recent history of Moorish domination, and of the southern member states, notably of Greece and Italy, who flooded with and bearing the cost of migrant seeking a way to the northern labour markets now have no trust in a EU solution. .

  48. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    All Remainers
    Did you notice the Merrill Lynch report this week which supports my view that the Eurozone will break up without very major reform. There is quite a long list of economists and organisations that have the same view now.

    I did read it and a number of other peoples view of the Euro. I do not see the Euro collapsing. let me give you an example:

    Argentina pegs to the dollar it has no fiscal transfers and yet it survives. The greeks having lost 25% of their GDP, they can leave if they want to but they all know that unless they peg to the Euro they are completely screwed so they stay.

    I agree that fiscal transfers would help and basically debt forgiveness would be something that will happen but it would take time for it to sink in to EU

    As to some of the papers I have seen it points to dysfunction or essentially some countries doing rather badly in the EZ compared to others. many believing that this is unacceptable. The problem is that they have lost a set of levers to pull to see if they can right the ship these are often short term and often have not changed the underlying issue. No one will invest in greece whether they had the drachma or not. There are several structural reasons for this.

    Interesting relating to the UK. Fiscal transfers as has happened has not changed how each regions GDP has changed. So the level of fiscal transfer would need to be much higher than we currently have to make up for the difference in GDP growth if equalisation is the aim

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/10/blunt-heckler-economists-failing-us-booming-britain-gdp-london

    yet we have monetary union. if you went to cornwall. Would they have the same exchange as say Bristol or Manchester or Edinburgh, or even the next county Devon.

    What is interesting is that 9 out 10 of the poorest regions in northern europe are in the UK and cornwall GDP/capita is lower than places in many of the poorer EU countries. We never state that sterling is going to collapse.

    If interets rates go to high it may force out Greece but I believe that most everyone else will survive. The fact that each country is using the Euro the price that is paid is essentially unemployment. The problem would have been as in the UK low wages low skills and low added value jobs and a maxed out economy. as the IFS/OBR reports have stated, you basically pays your money and takes your choice

  49. @JOHN PILGRIM

    I do not believe that Blair has any credibility left and I personally do believe the EU will be able to change the rules such that it favours the UK lax position regarding benefits and population registration. Most of the eastern European countries would not be in favour of it because it would allow more restriction for other countries when clearly they have systems that work already.

    I think the onus is on the UK to make changes to fit with the european style of ID card and local government registration together with a contributory benefits system

    As to the issue at hand I fear that as a hardened remainer, I feel that the real problem is that whilst people are not sure what they want and indeed what brexit actually means even to them or it consequences it has now become an article of faith that we are leaving the EU. My view has often been that Remainer and Leavers have talked past each other. I think that remainer have shouted facts and Leavers have countered with emotion and emotion has won. it is harder to change the emotional response.

    Labour has a bigger problem that the Tories in this. almost 68% of labour voters wanted to remain however that translates to only half the seats they hold and thus their problem is whilst they can win vote share game and yet end up with only 150 seats

    The Tories problem is that they now have to deliver brexit. and as I pointed out, the emotional stakes are high any seemingly backsliding will be seen as betrayal. This is now not a case of what would be good for the economy. It presently does not matter to those that voted leave they mainly are concerned about getting their way which mean no second referendum on the deal, and at the moment brexit at any cost. because they believe the cost will be low or insignificant

    This may change but it would take something like Nissan leaving Sunderland or Airbus using their Chinese factory over the UK factory for wing development. it would need to be a big shock for there to be a rethink and my view is that this will only happen after we have left.

  50. Jim [email protected] “would EZ reform be a matter just for EZ members not the EU as a whole?”

    Fair comment, although the thrust of my point is that the Eurozone is not a brittle construct which will break under stress, it is organic and will rearrange itself to ensure its own survival.

    As for EU vs Eurozone, all EU members are to a greater or lesser degree stakeholders, especially if the Euro were to appear under threat. And with Brexit, all the major EU players are in the Euro, so the distinction between EU and Eurozone is not a big issue

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