The Times have published their first YouGov poll since the general election. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%. This is the largest Labour lead we’ve seen in any poll since the election, though the vast majority of polls have shown them ahead. Fieldwork was yesterday and today.

Full tabs are here.

To provide the usual post-election methodology note, there’s not much change here – YouGov have gone back to removing don’t knows rather than reallocating, meaning this is pretty much the method they used earlier in the election campaign that tended to mirror their MRP model. The only significant change is that UKIP have been relegated out of the main prompt and back to “others”.


1,528 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%”

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  1. @TONYBTG

    “He’s just promoting his own agenda of forming a centrist political movement.”

    —————

    Well he might have kidded himself it’s in the centre. It suggests an acknowledgement of an error over free movement though…

  2. [email protected] October

    “The BofA survey in May suggested that Eurozone was overcrowded for investment (after Nasdaq) due to returning economic confidence, and the share of Eurozone equities had the third highest ever in the surveyed fund manager’s portfolio.

    No, it doesn’t sound like the description of a breaking up regime.

    https://www.ft.com/content/913a1b82-3a46-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

    Thanks, I had already found that one, but ToH is suggesting a report this week and the timing agrees with the DM report.

  3. PATRICKBRIAN

    Re the DUP, the LucidTalk poll that CAMBRIDGERACHEL linked to showed that unionist voters [p12] only marginally preferred a rock hard exit to a soft one whilst being unsurprisingly against having special status for the whole island with a hard border in the Irish Sea. More importantly, perhaps, all NI voters were neck and neck between the Irish Sea border and a soft one with a hard exit last.

    Whatever their MPs say, I do not believe that the DUP would agree to an Irish Sea border under any circumstances and they know that unless a soft border is retained any possibility of restoring power sharing in Stormont will be gone for a generation.

    If May is expecting them to support a Capstan full strength departure, I think she’ll be disappointed.

  4. I know Corbyn has past the age most people retire at but has anybody reminded him the UK has had a GE and he didn’t win I’m just worried the poor dear still thinks he has to keep on electioneering to keep down with the youth before they flit onto something else.
    Perhaps he should appear at the next rally with his baseball cap on back to front giving a rendition of the oldest swinger in town with his front bench as backing singers, only joking he’s a well respected politician who has the love and support of his party and the unswerving adoration of the younger generation who will no doubt sweep him into power with a huge majority unless of course the next best thing comes along in the meantime to distract them.

  5. He could take some lessons from William Hague?

  6. BZ

    My point I think exactly – usefully expanded!

    Three parties necessary to agreement, three red lines, no meeting point.

    = break down of negotiations. Soon.

  7. “keep down with the youth before they flit onto something else.”

    ———-

    They can’t afford to flit onto summat else. Boomers pulled up the ladder…

  8. PATRICKBRIAN @ BZ

    Neatly put.

  9. I’m interested in the contest between the DUP and UUP, DUP voters are definitely more hard line, but there is a significant portion of UUP voters that could be persuaded over to the DUP.

    I don’t think the DUP cares about a deal that has broad support in NI, their voters care only about their own community. Looks very much to me that Brexit will see NI go up in flames

  10. Turk

    Is rent as a proportion of income coming down? If not then the youth aren’t going to flit to something else

  11. LASZLO/ Monochrome October

    Re Bullish Investor sentiment for EZ.

    There is a big dollop of relief at the French Election result-and a lot of hope hanging on Macron’s ability to actually inject some “animal spirits” into the French economy.

    Some might think that France’s dislike of the “Anglo Saxon model ” has been manifested on its streets so often & in the recent defeat of Hollande’s feeble efforts that Macron has a lot to prove.

    We will see how he gets on, but no doubt Mr Melenchon will be ready with a Corbyn like mobilisation of The People to make life difficult for him.

    It will be an interesting tussle. France needs some of Macron’s medicine & his pragmatism on Trump signals an interesting chap.

  12. Barbazenzero

    I remember we have discussed this legal contribution before (I think) on an earlier post by AW.

    There is time to give notice to leave the EEA by way of Article 127. We know the government won’t want to leave by that route, assuming it wants to leave the EEA. I don’t think Hammond does.

    There was a piece yesterday by Richard North on the need to start unpicking embedded EU law from all the various bits of legislation that cover much of UK law.

    Coincidentally, North posts today on the subject we are now discussing and adds another layer to the subject.

    http://eureferendum.com

  13. I lived in Bournemouth from 2003 until last year and I can assure anyone who thinks it is still “God’s Waiting Room” couldn’t be further from the truth.

    Bournemouth has changed dramatically over the last 20 years. Lots of employment opportunities have sprung up due to an boom in financial services (particularly call centres supporting insurance companies) relocating to the town. Bournemouth has also become more of a student town (23,000 students between the 2 Unis), also there’s been an explosion in EFL schools and the tourist economy has rebranded itself to attract large numbers of hens and stags every weekend.

    All of these factors have led to a ‘resettling’ of the retirees to smaller towns and villages around Dorset and the New Forest. For example, Christchurch (just a few miles east of Bournemouth) now has the postcode with the oldest average resident in the country.

    Bournemouth East and West are ripe for the taking. Game on!

  14. LASZLO/Monochrome

    …and it isn’t just France Macron is focused on.

    The French president has also proposed creating a finance minister, parliament and a common budget for the eurozone, which would require changes to EU treaties.

    But responding to fears by German taxpayers that they may have to shoulder the burden of shared debts, Macron said he was not in favor of turning national debts into a single pool of eurozone debt.
    So we will see how his pragmatic approach reconciles all the trappings of a unified political, monetary & fiscal union , but without the fiscal transfers which have caused so much inequality & pain.

  15. ……………..”without the fiscal transfers LACK OF WHICH which have caused so much inequality & pain.”

    Doh !

  16. Colin

    “We will see how he gets on, but no doubt Mr Melenchon will be ready with a Corbyn like mobilisation of The People to make life difficult for him.”

    The difference is that Melenchon really is hard left and a frexiter, by comparison Corbyn looks like a weak kneed liberal

  17. CAMBRIDGERACHEL
    I don’t think the DUP cares about a deal that has broad support in NI, their voters care only about their own community.

    I don’t think it’s quite as simple as that. If you look at the BBC NI GE results map you’ll see that all their Westminster seats are well away from the 500 Km border, which gives some credence to your view, but that’s just a standard anomaly of the plurality voting system.

    For both their Council and Stormont elections they use STV and have plenty of councillors and MLAs for constituencies which have SF MPs.

    It will be in those constituencies where the border is a very real issue and will be where the DUP voters who need a soft border live, and who will have been part of the 3558 unionist voters for soft exit reported by LucidTalk rather than the 3828 hard voters, and that’s assuming that no DUP voters at all were in favour of the special status for the whole island and an Irish Sea border.

    In any event, if the DUP support a hard exit then there is virtually no chance of SF agreeing to restore power sharing, which will put many DUP MLAs out of a job for the foreseeable future and could indeed result in the whole province going up in flames.

    Somehow I can’t see the DUP leadership being quite so stupid.

  18. S Thomas

    An interesting take on the Tory situation but you’re assuming the power she has is maintained.

    1) By elections – If the Tories don’t turn things around, then they are likely lose a number of them.

    2) If polls start showing a change in public opinion about Brexit (It’s a big if… but seems highly plausible) then Tory remainers are going to become emboldened.

    It’s easy to see how T Mays power now may well just be power on paper and make brexit unworkable. I’d give both predictions a 50/50

  19. CR

    So-are you thinking of moving to France ?

  20. Colin

    No, I’m not that far left, I don’t actually have a fixed position on the political spectrum. The longer the right remain in power the further left I will go. The country is falling apart because one section of society has too much power and influence, just like the 70s in the other direction. At heart I’m a centrist

  21. Regarding Cable, I don’t really understand the argument behind why he would bring the party forward, especially amongst Labour voters. As others have said, he’s seen as someone who was very much on board with the coalition’s economic policy (which anyone voting Labour you would expect to oppose), and then you have tuition fees….

    His platform seems to be Farron 2.0. I’m frankly surprised that he doesn’t sound as if he wants to change the direction of the party at all – apart from gaining support, obviously. But how you do that with a figure like him, on a platform that failed to get even 8% of the vote a month ago. I don’t understand why it would be likely to gain them any more support. Indeed despite some polls suggesting opinion towards Brexit has become slightly more negative since the election, the LDs are polling even worse than they did at the GE – between 5-7%.

    If you’re thinking about Brexit here as being why their support may surge, consider that (i) if public opinion continues moving against Brexit, Labour have been ambiguous enough to put soft Brexit back on the table if they want to do so; (ii) as the YouGov polling showed, Labour voters did not give Brexit as the reason for their vote. Which provides further evidence that they did in fact understand Labour were pro-Brexit. The main reasons why people voted Labour was for their platform (and being anti-Tory).

  22. CR

    If younger voters are relying on Labour to bring the cost of rent down they will be sadly disappointed unless of course they conjure up another few billion along with all the other billions there promising to spend, all this from a party that know governments have no money only what the tax payer hands over in taxation still if you swallow the Corbyn line only the rich will pay you may think that it’s a simple matter to produce all this money through taxation and borrowing after all it’s the future generations who will have to pay it back er hang on a minute.

  23. CR

    @” At heart I’m a centrist”

    Welcome to the club :-)

  24. So an Ipsos Mori on the way.
    Labour north of 46% VI?

  25. “COLIN”
    “CR
    @” At heart I’m a centrist”

    “Welcome to the club :-) ”

    Yuk! Blairites!!

  26. Ooooops …. programming went askew there. He is [of course] a right wing Tory.

  27. Norbold

    I think it’s largely irrelevant in pointless rants.

    [Same with paragraphs].

    I generally find the lack of both quite helpful as their absence can act as a sort of shorthand “don’t read” sign.

  28. SAM

    I concur have that we have covered some of this ground previously, but the two latest North articles seem to demonstrate how much HMG are trying to hide in the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill and how little they seem to understand quite what they are trying to undo.

    Of course, if they can get away with it without MPs or the the Lords noticing, then any legal challenges might well fail, but I find it hard to believe that neither house will spot nothing to irk them and require modification.

    Both articles are well worth a read and have some interesting BTL comments.

    See Brexit: grooming unicorns and Brexit: the impact of leaving

  29. NORBOLD
    PAUL CROFT

    Can I politely disagree? There’s something almost Samuel Beckett-like in Turk’s run-on sentences, sometimes with a single comma in the middle. I like to think that is exactly how he talks too. Occasionally I speak them aloud to myself….

    There are others whose punctuation is erratic (eg PTRP, Laszlo sometimes) but you probably forgive them because they have something interesting to say.

  30. SAM

    I should have added that it is pretty ironic that in order to abjure Article 127 they will be renouncing 267 multilateral agreements including the Paris Agreement on climate change and the Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organisation. So presumably they want to apply for new membership from scratch before they can make any new trade deals.

  31. PATRICKBRIAN

    Yes, of course you can.

    Even with punctuation I find posts that simply use up a lot of words to say that Corbyn or May or Arsene Wenger are rubbish – or that the UK is becoming like Venezuela – are a waste of my time in reading.

    That you choose to read them out loud is most impressive !!

  32. Turk.

    Patronising and belittling Corbyn and the young people who have faith in him. That seems a sure fire way of ensuring the electorate reject his policies at a future General.Election.

  33. Paul Croft

    Thanks!

    In one way I completely agree, but I like the full variety of opinions on this site, and I like the full variety of literary styles too. :)

  34. I detect some anxiety among Brexiteers regarding Blair’s latest offering.

    The very worst nightmare for these people would be for someone with connections and clout within Brussels to navigate a path towards the EU agreeing some more substantial reforms on free movement that would look to enough UK voters like the kind of refrom that Cameron should have got.

    It’s by no means fanciful that this might happen. As Blair says, many EU leaders would feel more comfortable with some reforms, and Europe being Europe, they would still do this while preserving the principle of free movement, semantically at least.

    This, the polls and the economy continue to suggest to me that Brexit is far from a done deal, which is what I have been suggesting since June last year. With such a wafer thin majority at the referendum, I’ve been baffled why so many people seem to think this is over.

  35. PatrickBrian
    As far as Turk is concerned, as Truman Capote said of Jack Kerouac “that ain’t writing, that’s just typing!”

    Mind you Kerouac had his supporters too.

  36. MONOCHROME OCTOBER
    @TOH ” the Merrill Lynch report this week which supports my view that the Eurozone will break up without very major reform”

    Which I can’t find either,only their 2017 report which puts the Eurozone (and the UK) in the bullish category, or was that months ago and in a different age?
    However, it’s worth remarking that the view of most who voted and UK institutions which backed remain, including the Scottish and UK governments, CBI and TUC, also regarded the Eurozone, the EC and most of its financial strategies, including CAP and other structural funding, as requiring radical reform as a condition of remaining.

  37. @BZ

    I don’t think the EEA option will solve the Irish border issue unless the UK stays in the Customs Union as well as the Single Market. If it does, the UK cannot negotiate separate trade deals.

  38. @BZ
    I don’t think the EEA option will solve the Irish border issue unless the UK stays in the Customs Union as well as the Single Market. If it does, the UK cannot negotiate separate trade deals.

  39. @ Alec 6.07pm

    Agree that Brexit is not a definite. Because of the political temperature of the country very few current Politicians at Westminster are willing to actively prevent Brexit. Most Politicians when asked simply say that they respect the referendum result that a majority wanted to leave the EU.

    The truth is that the majority of MP’s and Lords are waiting to see how matters progress. If the Brexit deal and the economics are not favourable to the UK, then you will see MP’s start to take whatever action is necessary to stop Brexit. This might be a vote of no confidence triggering an election, unless the Government agree to a referendum allowing the electorate to make a final decision. I can’t see a Government not agreeing to a referendum to resolve the most divisive issue facing the UK in over 40 years.

    And in the run up to a final decision referendum, the EU might well offer some concessions to the UK including some controls on free movement.

  40. ALEC

    @” while preserving the principle of free movement, semantically at least.”

    Yes-I look forward to reports of the rules of engagement given to the Austrian troops being deployed to the Italian Border.

    They are to “semantically preserve free movement” by stopping Italy implementing it’;s threat to send its thousands of North African immigrants north with EU travel permits.

    Italy is a bit cheesed off with having to care for them all without help from the rest of the European “Family”.

    Just wait till would be dictator Erdogan finally tells EU to forget it & tears up the ( leaky) deal on migrants crossing to Greece.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40577216

    Presumably Greece will find that its EU neighbours Bulgaria , Macedonia etc promptly close their borders with it as they semantically preserve free movement too.

    Free Movement with open external borders & a tidal wave of migrants desperately determined to enter, is a road to disaster for the EU.

    Still -it must be some comfort to the Italians that pragmatic Mr Macron has said most of the North Africans storming their island beaches are ” economic migrants”.

  41. R Huckle

    This is all nonsense. it is Bobby Ewing in the shower.

    1. The EU will make no concessions on free movement;
    2. The terms of our withdrawal from A50 will be a national humiliation. No politician will want to own that. Who will sit in the railway carriage with Merkel and Junkers to do this deal? Corbyn or May or Blair.? Who will want to be pictured next to a sneering Junkers or a patronising Merkel. It will be a nation defeated ,humiliated and with a large % angry,very angry electorate looking for political revenge.It will make the ERM debacle seem trivial.
    3. Every straight banana, every terrorist not expelled will be spun against the EU and the great betrayers.
    4. By any estimate probably 40-45% of the electorate will feel the nation has been betrayed .
    5.Any political party may think that negotiating a bad brexit is more advantageous politically than not negotiating one at all.

  42. Looking forward to a new poll soon. In the meantime.

    @ Alec

    “I detect some anxiety among Brexiteers regarding Blair’s latest offering.”

    I’m not convinced about that, since I’d have to agree with many Brexiteers’ reaction that it’s a little difficult to believe his proposal is workable. It doesn’t sound like something the EU would agree to, as a whole anyway, even if some individuals have said it. It doesn’t sound like something that fits with the current UK political climate of respecting the referendum vote. And most of all, I don’t think many people are listening to anything that Blair says any more – in fact it seems more likely to put people off the solution he suggests.

    Personally, he lost me at Iraq. My could have been said to be hasty, but the Chilcot inquiry felt like justification for my loss of faith, and must have confirmed many more people as Blair unbelievers.

  43. Monochrome October

    In answer to your request for information in your 12.13 post today.

    I was referring to a study( h ttp://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2017/04/03/bank-of-america-day-after-euro-predicts-7-5-depreciation-of-greek-drachma/), from the bank of America.

    He is just another economist who supports the view that the Euro is likely to fail if not reformed in a major way. Others include Mervyn King (ex Gov BoE,), Joseph Siglitz the Nobel laureate (The problem with Europe is the Euro) and the London School of Economics report (Why the future of the Euro remains uncertain).

    If I remember correctly Mervyn King was just commenting, it was not a report, but I give titles to the pieces by Stiglitz and the LSE which you should be able to find easily. I am sure there are many more but I am sure your more than capable of looking them up for yourself.

    I have ignored your last paragraph which I don’t really understand.

    John Pilgrim

    Good of you to post that last paragraph in your post to MO of 6.32 it was helpful.

    There is of course no reason why the Eurozone could not be reformed successfully but it needs a good deal of will on the part of the EU members and probably much generosity on the part of the German taxpayer. I don’t think either exist at the moment.

  44. @ S Thomas

    Not nonsense. You just have a different opinion because you are invested in Brexit happening.

    Just try to remain calm if it does not happen because the country has changed its mind.

  45. PATRICKBRIAN

    I agree that “the full variety of opinions on this site” is a good thing.

    And of course, that means that we will all find some posts which are “interesting” ………..and some which are not so much.

    I like Turk’s posts & find them interesting too.

  46. R huckle

    but how do you determine that the country has changed its mind?

    you cant look at a poll and say the country has changed its mind? The same Survation poll cited above has the same people saying that if we were not a member already we should not join! and expressing overwhelmingly negative attitudes to the EU.tWe must clearly proceed down the democratic pathway and see where we are at the conclusion of the negotiations. To back out now would court disaster.

  47. @Paul Croft

    “Even with punctuation I find posts that simply use up a lot of words to say that Corbyn or May or Arsene Wenger are rubbish”

    ———

    Woe, it never ends. Alternatively they don’t just use up a lot of words, they just make points you don’t like and can’t challenge. Because you’re quite keen to challenge if you feel you can!!! Consequently we just get blame dismissals.

    And mischaracterisations. There’s a big difference between taking issues with the lionization of Blair and saying he’s utter rubbish.

  48. Colin

    I agree on Macron, etc. I think he will find it rather difficult to push his policies through (not the legislative part, but the practical bits,like collective bargaining). Unless the French economy produces a miracle or the French companies decide on paying tax rather than acquiring firms internationally, Melenchon may have an easier job than Corbyn.

    My guess is the use of a lot fiscal tricks (including extra budgetary funds and the game of financing current expenditure from future investment).

  49. LASZLO

    Here’s an interesting take on the Macron Trump love -in-; a little quirky in The New Yorker style.

    http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-is-emmanuel-macron-being-so-nice-to-donald-trump

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