The Times have published their first YouGov poll since the general election. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%. This is the largest Labour lead we’ve seen in any poll since the election, though the vast majority of polls have shown them ahead. Fieldwork was yesterday and today.

Full tabs are here.

To provide the usual post-election methodology note, there’s not much change here – YouGov have gone back to removing don’t knows rather than reallocating, meaning this is pretty much the method they used earlier in the election campaign that tended to mirror their MRP model. The only significant change is that UKIP have been relegated out of the main prompt and back to “others”.


1,528 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%”

1 26 27 28 29 30 31
  1. Syzygy

    It may well be that the BBC’s Radio 4 chose not to comment on Corbyn’s meeting with Barnier.

    As I’m currently more engrossed with my grandkids than politics, I may have my dates a little confused – but did Barnier meet with Sturgeon, Jones and Corbyn on the same day that the UK Government published their Withdrawal Bill?

    I thought not, so conflating both in the same story would have been odd, but if you can assure they were same day happenings, then I’ll happily accept that

  2. @oldnat

    “While I understand that those in England are motivated largely or wholly by matters pertaining to their polity, and the 2017 election result (as reported in the London media) may have persuaded them that the discontented Celts had happily returned to the fold of voting along GB/English lines, that may be a false presumption”

    ————-

    Nah, it’s just that Scots liking devolution prolly didn’t need saying.

  3. I want polling from northern Ireland, what do the Northern Irish think about the DUP deal? How much influence do theI think the DUP have over the govt. Has support for a shin Fein taken a hit because the nationalists see that having MPs that take their seats are an advantage or does the DUP deal increase the hard line feeling among nationalists? Is there a plague on both your houses feeling that benefits the alliance party?

    I can’t believe that there hasn’t been polling in northern Ireland when that region has become so important to UK politics in a way that it hasn’t for many years

  4. Looks like DUP voters want a hard hard brexit

  5. CR
    “does seem to be a gradual move to a softer Brexit position. I think it will gather pace as the year goes on, but I’m not silly enough to put money on it. It’s good for carwen Jones, he looks like he in touch with the public mood”

    I think you might be safe in having a flutter. A”verifiable factor” as they say in the trade, would be that of a progressive awareness of the need for the free movement and availability of European labour to the UK economy, both to its commercial and manufacturing sectors and to the service sector, underlying a measuable trend towards a remain/soft Brexit position and towards Labour.

  6. OLDNAT
    “As I’m currently more engrossed with my grandkids than politics, ”
    Ho hum.. Given the nocturnal nature and continued keen edge of your postings, you’re entitled to multi-task.

  7. CAMBRIDGERACHEL
    Looks like DUP voters want a hard hard brexit

    Not sure how you come to that conclusion. when asking union only voters about Brexit the result was
    1. The UK (including NI) leaves the EU, the Single Market, and the Customs Union – with control of people movement (i.e. so called ‘Hard Brexit’) 3828 –
    2. The UK (including NI) leaves the EU, but stays in the Single Market, and the Customs Union – with free movement of people (i.e. so called ‘Soft Brexit’) 3558
    3. The UK leaves the EU – NI has special EU status (but not the rest of the UK) and
    remains in the Single Market and the Customs Union – with free movement of people (between EU and NI, not GB)1221

    So while for unionist a ”hard brexit” was the most single popular choice, when you add the two ”soft brexit” options they easily outweigh it.

    And of course wen you take all party allegiances into account there is a latge majority in favour of the soft brexit options.

  8. It will be interesting to see how the polls are affected after Corbyn started chumming up to Barnier in Brussels.

    Corbyn has so far tried to appeal to left leaning remainers and leavers alike through the general vagueness and avoidance of saying where he stands. I suspect that there will be some leavers/ukip voters who were persuaded to trust Corbyn and Labour with their vote in June might soon start to reconsider their position.

  9. @NEILJ
    Those are scores for ranking points, not votes – you can’t add them together.

  10. Cambridge Rachel

    This from Slugger’s may help to explain the DUP’s apparent support of hard Brexit.

    “In the debate on the Queens speech Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster gave a broad hint that a confidence and supply deal with the Conservatives will be concluded shortly.

    But he also disabused us of any notion that because the DUP favoured a “frictionless” border, it also meant they were supporting a version of a soft Brexit. The DUP is sticking with their hard Brexit. Their reasoning is essentially political, that the absence of customs checks in any form on the island of Ireland would mean customs barriers between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. This is anathema to the DUP.”

    There is some more of the Dodd’s speech.

    “Let me make this very clear. I believe that when people voted, in the European Union referendum, to leave the European Union, they voted to leave the single market and the customs union, and I believe that Northern Ireland, along with the rest of the United Kingdom, must do likewise. We must not find ourselves allowing borders to be erected between the island of Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom; that would be totally unacceptable. We must be imaginative, flexible and pragmatic in ensuring that there is an open border, as frictionless as possible, between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. There are ways—sensible ways that have already been discussed—of ensuring that that can be made to happen, and it is in the interests of the Irish Republic and the European Union, as well as those of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland, to make it happen.

    The great advantage with which we start is that everyone is saying that—apart from, I have to say, Sinn Féin, which is calling for special status within the EU for Northern Ireland. That has not been adopted or accepted by the new Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, by any of the parties in the Irish Republic, or by the EU negotiators. Everyone accepts that Northern Ireland’s priorities in relation to the land frontier must also be at the top of the negotiating priorities…”

  11. Leave or Stay, we need to do business with Europe.

    Blair has popped up in the Guardian to prove, if any further proof were needed, that, if he were ever actually a Labour politician, he certainly ain’t one now.

  12. @JIM JAM

    Productivity, Low skills and low investment are all inter-related. we have nothing to kick start the investment, no big idea, we have left this all to the market and the market is only interested in making low risk gains.

    The generation of employment has been in low skill low added value because you can. but we need to understand if was no labour to fulfill those jobs then there would have been no jobs.

    I think my concern is there is a fixation on how much it costs. it is just fiscal which leads to basically cutting for cutting sake rather than what do we get for the money. Our debate about thing has narrowed such that there is only one way of doing things

    Colin reckon we are not allowed to talk about the choices government’s can make and indeed it does seem that actually you do not see the discussion at all. We have an orthodoxy which basically says this is a problem and then promptly ignores it when making policy

    No wonder the voters are pretty confused, they are not really given a choice and governments are essentially saying they have no control.

  13. the political landscape

    As we look around at the political scene what do we see.

    1. The Tory.party.

    a.TM is safe. she can go at at a time of her choosing.Although unlikely now a bet on her going into the 2022 might be worthwhile. There is no natural successor and no one who wants to take over the party until brexit is concluded. Her rivals will then move and blame her for anything bad. Right now the game is not to replace her but to stop any other person from replacing her.They are all on the starting line revving their engines but no-one is willing to start the race.Without pushing the analogy too far there is a risk that some might run out of petrol before the starting flag is raised. The tory conference will back her enthusiastically even though they are seething with her in private.
    .There is power in weakness and she should remember that.

    b. Before they all go off to their garden fetes each should be stamped with the logo that only the tory party can bring the tory government down.They can cry to the media to salve their egos but providing they go through the lobbies they cannot be beaten. Farron may declare war on them, Labour may bluster and scotland and wales may pretend that they have some influence but the tories have the votes and they have the power. No doubt TM will have to face down some group at some time but her weakness will be her power. Is Soubry going to bring down the government and her career over Euroatom. I dont think so.
    The tory party in the country is good order. It has not been defeated
    in an election and does not feel defeated despite the media. Local election results from last thursday saw the tories gain a seat in scotland with an 24% increase in vote and in all others bar one including middlesborough saw their vote increase. The Tory shield Wall holds. I would not be surprised to find their national polling still above 40% which is historically massive.

    The SNP

    1.Sturgeon.If TM had a bad election NS had a catastrophic one.To survive in westminster, at least, they need a more sophisticated leadership than NS can provide. Independence is dead and unionist Tories and Labour are rampant. NS can no longer threaten Scotland with tory England and it is difficult to know what weapons she has.If scotland is ignored over rbrexit she can go on about the sewell convention until she is saltire in the face but the momentum has passed and her troops are returning to Labour .To survive as a westminster party they need to focus on Corbyn as the enemy. The clever game is to attack the tories but do everything to stop an early election in which polling shows they might be reduced to 3-4 westminster seats.I dont know if the pint sized greivance factory is up to this. They not the tories are losing voters.

    3. The labour party and OOOOhh Jeremy Corbyn.

    Any analysis is difficult because in a sane world this should not be happening.First the positives. Corbyn and his momentum turks ran a very good campaign,I do not say a great campaign because a. they lost; and b,there was no tory campaign to take on.They have enthused a host of dormant voters and the youngsters which has given them a terrific ground force. This force may well overwhelm the tories even in 2022 and make labour the largest party at the very least and if they carry scotland then the next government. if our democracy is to function then a party other than the tories does need to win sometimes. Another positive is Jezza himself. He has grown in stature and is astute politically. Tactically he has run the brexit masterly ambiguity approach well.On the negative side due to the blairite split this is an opposition of the no talents. The talented members are isolated and excluded and jezza has to rely on very loyal but very limited individuals.There is also the cult of the jezza. If he falls for whatever reason there does not seem to be a structure around him and a conflict akin to the war of the roses will break out between the factions.They appear strong but with a volatile electorate and with a base which seems to comprise the social DE’s and the AB’s this house might be built on sand.

    would i prefer to be corbyn or May? Undoubtedly May. She has the power. Every morning she survives she gets politically stronger and makes decisions and exercises power; on the other hand every morning jezza gets up he goes to work he buys a coffee…and then he drinks it.

  14. “every morning jezza gets up he goes to work he buys a coffee…and then he drinks it.”

    ———

    As well he should and should savour every drop because according to “future liabilities” he’s owed money on that coffee for years and years….

  15. @JimJam
    @PTRP et al

    They might be a concern, but are concerns about productivity quite as they appear or are characterised?

    Conventionally, the idea is, that if a firm becomes more productive, it can then pay its workers more, wages rise, fruits of growth filter down. Cool.

    Only, if that productivity were increased by buying a pricey machine, then from the POV of the whole nation, the firm might have become more productive, but the nation now has more unemployed to look after.

    And the remaining workers in the firm might not actually see much of pay rise because if the firm has to keep paying for the new machine, it might only be a bit better off in terms of profits.

    The rising productivity argument doesn’t include the costs of paying for the replacement tech, nor the costs of creating some more unemployed or people moved into the zero hours realm.

  16. @S Thomas

    “She has the power. Every morning she survives she gets politically stronger and makes decisions and exercises power”

    ————

    Hmm. Wonder what John Major would say about this…

  17. @ S Thomas – very interesting analysis. I would like to throw another dimension into the mix – Vince Cable.

    It is virtually a done deal that he will be LD leader by next week. With promises of a referendum on the Brexit deal and £1,000 gift to students if is not hard to imagine where he will pick up votes from if he does indeed pick up votes.

    All it will take is a 5% VI switch to LD from Lab amd the landscape will look a lot different. Oooh JC might find that he actually has to earn his votes next time.

  18. Yes, one can see the memes being prepared on social media as we write. Cable backed the tuition fee hike not to say austerity but then wants to give a sop of £1k to students? In a world where trad media are being bypassed this risks adding insult to injury innit. (Might fool some nulabbers though, they seem most credulous…)

  19. @ S Thomas

    TM is not safe. Just read some of the newspapers. Journalists working at Westminster are normally well informed. Boris Johnson and David Davis may well take part in a leaders contest, but only if someone else starts the process. I would think it is highly likely letters would go into the 1922 committee to launch a leaders contest before the end of this year. The new Tory leader/PM will then go for a Spring 2018 election, saying vote Tory or Brexit is unlikely to happen.

    Regarding SNP, i think they would struggle because the economic case for independence is not great. They would do better if they spent more time campaigning for more devolution from Westminster. If SNP are able to show voters they provide effective Government for Scotland, then i can’t see other parties taking more seats from SNP. There was always going to be seats lost after that amazing result in 2015, because in part it was a rejection of Labour in Scotland. As time goes by, then people might start not liking SNP either.

    Labours biggest problem is that they have attracted too many people on the fringes who might conduct themselves in a way that is very unhelpful. Jeremy Corbyn has attracted many very passionate supporters and the Labour party might struggle to keep people to a disciplined democratic way of behaving. If you have John McDonnell making speeches which contain language that appears to encourage wrong behaviours, then Labour will suffer the consequences, as voters are put off.

  20. Clegg finally loses his marbles.

    Another Referendum with under 30s getting two votes.

    Nurse !

  21. PTRP,

    I think Colin means we aren’t meant to talk about those matters too much on this site although AW tolerates policy discussions the longer threads last absent any polls.

    Carfew, I take your point that technological advance means less need for old jobs and hence a Labour pool shortage.

    This is where Government needs to step in by paying decent support to people between jobs like in Scandanavia and investing in proper re-training. We should not stop investment to increase automation as individuals are affected but support those individuals more fulsomely and fairly.

  22. @Colin

    Ah, you only just noticed about the marbles thing Col.?…

  23. Carfew BTW – IIRC Labour said in their 2001 manifesto we will not introduce Tuition fees in the next parliament and then legislated so that they came in after their re-election in 2005. Naughty dissembling.
    Fitness for work test and Atos came in under Brown but legislation passed under Blair.

    IMO it was 2001-2005 when Labour lost it’s way 97-01 was on the whole a decent left of centre Government, not as bold and as left as the commons majority would have allowed.
    Like many I took the timidity as a fear of being a one term Labour Government and that post 2001 more radical policies would be introduced. I did not realise that Blair was not a trimmer to get elected but actually embraced the US Democratic Party model if I can put it that way. Brown kept pumping money in to Public Services masking the policy direction and subsequent drift when he blocked further marketization, remember Brown/Milburn spats for example.

  24. @JimJam

    Well, crucially, my point was not just that ruling productivity can increase the labour pool, but that it might also not even improve wages for those remaining employed!! (And then you don’t even get the economic boost from increased wages circulating).

    Regarding the consequences and support for those made unemployed, this shows the gulf with Nulab, who just think in terms of providing some welfare, tax credits and stuff, when that’s just a sticking plaster. What is needed is for the state to actively create proper jobs, or strongly support the creation of proper jobs. With proper career paths and stuff, that will also pull up wages and force more productivity gains as labour demand tightens.

    This doesn’t just provide more proper jobs, but better pay for others already employed and forces more productivity, is the point. We see what happens otherwise if you just leave it to the market. It is ESPECIALLY important to do this in an era of free movement where there’s a surplus of labour.

  25. @JimJam

    “IMO it was 2001-2005 when Labour lost it’s way 97-01 was on the whole a decent left of centre Government, not as bold and as left as the commons majority would have allowed.”

    ————

    Been looking back at the 1997 manifesto and agree, the more questionable stuff did come later.

    However, there remains that issue over fundamentals like proper jobs, affordable housing etc.

  26. (From the Beeb…)

    “Some EU leaders may be prepared to be flexible on the free movement of people to help Britain stay in the single market, Tony Blair has said.

    He told the Today programme one option was for Britain “staying within a reformed EU.”

    The ex-PM said he would not disclose conversations he had had in Europe but that he was not speaking “on a whim”.

    The government insists Brexit will give the UK greater control of its borders.
    Mr Blair said the situation in Europe was different to how it had been a year ago.

    “Europe itself is now looking at its own reform programme. They will have an inner circle in the EU that will be part of the eurozone and an outer circle.

    “They will make reforms that I think will make it much more comfortable for Britain to fit itself in that outer circle,” he said.”

  27. WB

    “TOH will have a fit.”
    Why would I do that, we are leaving the EU, only 622 days left. I am very happy about that.

    I am much too old to get too excited about the machinations of the law and politics. The point you make just reinforces my view that we need to have a complete break from the EU and its Courts asap.

    Somerjohn
    “Back to Brexit: I see the government has now conceded that it has outstanding liabilities to the EU that will need to be paid.”
    That’s very old news, and no surprise to anybody, Davis made that clear months ago. There were bound to be commitments we signed up to that have to be covered. I suspect the government’s view of what we owe them and what they owe us is very different to the EU’s, one of the reasons we are having a negotiation.

    Colin
    Thanks for the reference to the Independent’s article, interesting reading.

    All Remainers
    Did you notice the Merrill Lynch report this week which supports my view that the Eurozone will break up without very major reform. There is quite a long list of economists and organisations that have the same view now.

    CambridgeRachel
    Looks like DUP voters want a hard hard brexit. Yes it does, an interesting piece of polling. Very encouraging to some.

    Nick P
    “Leave or Stay, we need to do business with Europe.”
    And Europe needs to do business with us, terms yet to be agreed. It’s why so much of the anti Brexit rhetoric is nonsense IMO

    S Thomas
    Excellent summary.

    Colin
    Clegg finally loses his marbles.
    Another Referendum with under 30s getting two votes.

    Maybe he has got something there. I suggest if the under 30’s get 2 votes then the over 60’s should get 10 votes reflecting their age and acquired wisdom.
    All very funny, some ex cabinet ministers seem best suited as comedians.

    Have a good day all, beginning to look as though the worst of the hay fever season is over for me now so off for a long countryside walk with my wife.

  28. Corbyn going to Bournemouth West today.Ambitious ?

  29. Cambridgerachel

    “Looks like DUP voters want a hard hard brexit”

    Yes it does, the scoring methodology makes it hard to draw any conclusions from second placed choices. It may be that it was only a second choice because people felt they had to make a second choice.

    This will make it hard for May to compromise over Brexit and keep the DUP onboard – hence the attempt to reach out to other parties.

    I guess we knew that this would be the dynamic, but this poll gives further support to that argument.

    Interesting times ahead.

    I certainly do not agree with Brexit. I see it as a pointless distraction for us sorting more important problems in our country. However, it’s going to be fascinating seeing how this all plays out…..

  30. Blair being all very helpful and Accommodating in the Graun…

    “In another demonstration of his partial return to domestic politics, the former prime minister praised Corbyn’s performance in the general election, but argued that greater scrutiny of the Labour leader’s policies could derail the next campaign. In a lengthy article released by his own political institute, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, Blair said an “unchanged Corbyn programme” introduced at the same time as Brexit would prove disastrous for the country.

    “If a rightwing populist punch in the form of Brexit was followed by a leftwing populist punch in the form of unreconstructed hard-left economics, Britain would hit the canvas, flat on our back and be out for a long count,” he wrote.”

  31. Oh, and Brexit isn’t right wing, Mr Blair!!

  32. tonybtg

    I was merely reflecting the views of 176 labour mp’s who said that uncle jezza was not fit to lead their party let alone the country.

    electorate disagreed…almost

  33. S Thomas – that is not what those176 MPs did, of course, but they did enable LP opponents to characterise it as such.

  34. BRILLIANT SMITH.
    Hello to you. My own seat of Bournemouth East requires a swing of 8% from Tory to Lab for a victory for Corbyn.

    The neighbouring seat in the West has a swing of 8.5% required.

  35. carfrew

    Blair:
    “If a rightwing populist policy in the form of Brexit was followed by a leftwing populist policy in the form of unreconstructed hard-left economics, Britain would hit the canvas, flat on our back and be out for a long count,”

    Well I would expect a centrist neo-liberal to say that. He’s just promoting his assertion that a new centrist political movement needs to emerge and doing that by criticising the policies of the right and the left.

    Blair is a salesman. He was very successful at selling himself to the British electorate in the 1990s and early 2000s.

    Funny that he would label the current labour manifesto as hard-left. In some countries, such policies would be viewed mainstream – and we’re not talking Venezuela!

    Everyone has an agenda.

    Oh for an opinion from someone who doesn’t have an agenda…..

    Whither the man/woman on the Clapham omnibus…..would they be a brexiteer or a remainer, right or left…. discuss….

  36. Best thing to do with Blair is ignore him. Which is what most of the Labour members will do.

    The media won’t though!

  37. He is a former PM Nick just like John Major.

  38. Brilliant Smith

    “Corbyn going to Bournemouth West today.Ambitious ?”

    The demographics look very favourable, should have fallen to labour last time. Probably didn’t because it’s very hard to imagine Bournemouth not being conservative. I suspect that there aren’t as many registered voters as there should be, a voter registration drive could result in a stonking labour majority. West looks quite a bit better than east but both are very reasonable targets.

  39. SAM @ BZ

    This legal company sets it out nicely.

    Agreed.

    Do you think anyone in power is paying attention to any of it?

    I’d be astonished if the Con remainer and most Lab MPs aren’t aware of it by now. Why HMG doesn’t at least mention it rather than seemingly going for the most destructive possible exit is beyond me, as is their wanting to spend otherwise useful parliamentary time copying and pasting EU law into UK law in the hope that they’ll be allowed to give ministers the power to trash it at will, when almost all of it will be needed if we do any trade with the EU 27.

    I came across the Allen & Overy PDF [9 pages] when the Article 127 case was in the news and it’s well worth reading in full.

    The most immediately relevant bit seems to be on p2:
    Importantly, particularly given the level of attention that this issue had during the EU referendum campaign in the UK, EEA membership does not oblige the EEA EFTA States to negotiate free trade agreements with non-EEA countries as part of the EU. EFTA States can negotiate their own free trade agreements, and, indeed, have done so. Should the UK adopt EEA-only membership, this may be perceived as an important freedom that the UK has gained from Brexit.

    Why they won’t take this simple step is beyond me given that it would:
    1. Solve the Irish border problem [and probably the Gibraltar one too] given a little haggling.
    2. Remove the CFP and CAP funding issues and potentially give control of them to the devolved administrations.
    3. Allow all the wonderful trade deals outwith the EU that they are so sure will be on offer.
    4. Give significantly more control over EU immigration.
    5. Remove UKIP and their ilk from the European Parliament and much of their funding.

    I can only assume that it’s May’s hatred of the ECJ which prevents her from embracing it. I certainly hope that A127 is ruled as necessarily given by the Westminster parliament rather than HMG, as if that is the case I can’t see it being invoked.

  40. S Thomas

    Enjoyable analysis.

    Of course, predictions are a mug’s game. Even yours! I seem to remember that May definitely wasn’t going to call an election….

    On DUP

    DUP will obviously not contemplate a customs border in the Irish Sea, which would effectively unite Ireland economically.
    The EU, representing the Republic, will not accept a Hard Border between North and South.
    Theresa May will not accept membership of the CU,or any role forthe ECJ.

    “It goes not forward, doth it?” (A midsummer Night’s Dream)

  41. Carfrew

    Just what we would expect Blair to say.

    He’s just promoting his own agenda of forming a centrist political movement.

    Most will ignore him..others will laugh.. but the media love him.

  42. @ Brilliant Smith

    Re Corbyn visiting Bournemouth

    Only two months ago, Corbyn was being mocked on this site for visiting the apparently non-marginal seat of Warwick & Leamington (Con Maj 13% in 2015)

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/warwickandleamington/

  43. “Corbyn going to Bournemouth West today.Ambitious ? “You

    Not really, but there was also a two train tickets for the price of one from London to Bournemouth, and that tipped the decision on the destination.

  44. Laszlo

    “Not really, but there was also a two train tickets for the price of one from London to Bournemouth, and that tipped the decision on the destination.”

    I wonder if he will be able to find a seat :-)

  45. maybe he has had a sneak look at the latest opinion poll and is looking at a retirement home :-)

  46. High percentage of private renters in both Bournemouth seats, which should swing it for labour. Not as many old folks as the stereotype leads one to believe. West has a higher number of the crucial 18 to 24 age group (crucial for labour) than east so makes a more tempting target

  47. The Other [email protected] Remainers: “Did you notice the Merrill Lynch report this week which supports my view that the Eurozone will break up without very major reform. There is quite a long list of economists and organisations that have the same view now.”

    All I am picking up is pronouncements by Athanasios Vamvakidis, a ‘senior employee’ at BoAML, reported on the Daily Mail website and the Express and Fox News. If you have seen a report from ML as opposed to reports of a pronouncement, perhaps you would be good enough to post a link.

    Or you could just construe the request for a link as a statement that I don’t believe you and accuse me of abuse.

  48. Monochrome October

    The BofA survey in May suggested that Eurozone was overcrowded for investment (after Nasdaq) due to returning economic confidence, and the share of Eurozone equities had the third highest ever in the surveyed fund manager’s portfolio.

    No, it doesn’t sound like the description of a breaking up regime.

    https://www.ft.com/content/913a1b82-3a46-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

1 26 27 28 29 30 31