The Times have published their first YouGov poll since the general election. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%. This is the largest Labour lead we’ve seen in any poll since the election, though the vast majority of polls have shown them ahead. Fieldwork was yesterday and today.

Full tabs are here.

To provide the usual post-election methodology note, there’s not much change here – YouGov have gone back to removing don’t knows rather than reallocating, meaning this is pretty much the method they used earlier in the election campaign that tended to mirror their MRP model. The only significant change is that UKIP have been relegated out of the main prompt and back to “others”.


1,528 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%”

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  1. Tom Chadwick,
    “Astonishing turnaround In past 2 months.”

    Not really. There is an increasing dissonance between what politicians are saying and reality, hence a turnaround. The radio this morning keeps featuring politicians beginning every sentence with ‘the nation voted to leave so…’ But the problem is, no vote in a democracy can ever be binding. What these people are doing is saying their excuse for what they are doing now is a vote held in the past, whereas public opinion has moved on. They keep justifying their actions by repeating a false premise.

    The more the sense grows that the government is in fact opposing the will of the public, of course its popularity will fall. One of the recent surveys found 2/3 opposing hard Brexit, whereas some conservatives keep arguing this is what the nation voted for.

  2. Chris Riley

    Not sure how Labour showed that. Also have you got some evidence to back that up?

  3. Not all Chris but many. They are DK for a reason they are not happy with some aspects of the Govt and for some that will lead to a switch or even to WV.

    ICM typically reallocate 50% back for Lab and Cons and less for other parties DK which I think is fair.

    (ICM, though, still using a model that seems to underweight turnout in strong Lab supporting groups compared to the 2017 GE which means they will be at the more favourable to cons end of polls, probably.

    I will add 2-3% to ICM Lab lead for now and take 2-3% off YG ones but the trend is what matters most and other that the single Survation ‘outlier’ a moderately improving Lab lead seem prevalent.

  4. Question mainly for Anthony

    When polling organisations are asking people how they voted last time are they prompted for “didn’t vote”?

    It just strikes me that I have never seen a subsample with this category and it might have provided an early indication of what was happening during the last election campaign.

  5. [email protected]: “I stand corrected. It is all I can do to resist calling it [the Scottish Parliament] a County Council.”

    It is those same people who wonder why on earth there is a Scottish Parliament who say crass things like this.

  6. Interesting how the “winner’s bonus” in the polls has gone to the second place party. Perhaps the voters seem to agree that Corbyn was the real “winner”. All rather peculiar.

    I still find this turn of events to be astounding.

  7. @oldnat

    So sorry, I was in a mischievous mood and probably broke the house rules and went looking for a bite from you.

    I do understand the difference between a County Council and a legislative body, indeed I would like to see several such bodies across the UK resulting in a much more federal structure for all regions of a United Kingdom, giving the North East of England parity with Scotland for instance.

  8. AW. I have a post in mod. I think it may be an IT glitch. If not, let me know what I did wrong and I will amend.

  9. MONOCHROME OCTOBER

    Totally agree and I’m a Londoner.

    JIM JAM

    Yep. you do realise that if you apply both your ‘corrections’ you reverse the polls don’t you?

    i.e ICM would read Con 38-9 Lab 45-6
    YouGov would read Con 40-1 Lab 43-4

  10. SSSimon,
    “Any sign of support from the Lib Dems will also be courted assiduously.”

    For the libs to switch now to a leave strategy would be death. Not simply because it is the total reversal of what most of their voters want, but because it would utterly confirm their unreliability on any issue whatever.

    “The Tory numbers are still pretty positive though, albeit not zooming into first place as could, perhaps, have happened under different circumstances.”

    How? If the nation wanted hard leave, then yes, but polling shows it does not.

    Cloudspotter,
    “I suppose they might be after Tory remainers, but that’s not a massive pool to fish in.”

    About 1/3 of tory voters, so 10-15% of vote share? Of course, these people might not be very motivated on the brexit issue at all, or might already have decided their other conservative views trump Brexit.

    Paul Croft,
    ““There was a bloke in front of me in the supermarket a while back and he had “one life – live it” tattooed on the back of his neck.

    He was buying white cider and economy scotch eggs.””

    Now, first I thought this another distraction from polling questions, but perhaps I agree it isnt. What is important to a voter? city job, posh suit, fine dining, no time to do anything not related to work? Or white cider and scotch eggs with significant other.

    Kester Leek,
    ” if they keep May in power, when she falls they’ll be splashed:”

    But it is still necessary to have someone who could replace her. They would need a change of policy as well as leader. Their handling of Brexit is as unpopular as May herself. There are so many impending potential negotiating failures which could undermine anyone before another election, even in only a few months.

    “Have we hit ‘peak Corbyn’?”
    If the leave vote continues to collapse, Labour could be in line for a massive majority in an election caused by the total split of the conservative party. I don’t often feel inclined to make election predictions, because polling is really about the now, and events change the future, even in just one day. But there is the potential for a labour government with a huge majority in a years time.

  11. Thanks Paula – I did not do the actual maths but your numbers don’t surprise me.

    Is your ICM recalculation just using 2017 turnout as 6-7% would be at the high end of moe around a 3-4% lead.

  12. SSSimon,
    “That age breakdown for both Tories and Labour in YouGov is atrocious. Both parties should be ashamed of having such minimal appeal with the respective age groups.”

    How would they do this? Tory strategy has been to assist those with assets. House owning is the biggest asset most people have, and the people who own their own homes are the old. The strategy works because others aspire to be in this position. It breaks down when this aspiration is seen as unrealistic.

    You have one party which has followed this strategy, and would have very great difficulty reversing it. You have a second party which has somewhat at least accomplished that change, and therfore is supported by the non property owners.

    My view is that the tories will have to cave in, and indeed they tried to do so in their recent manifesto. Did not go down well.

  13. RJW

    The average constituency has 1230 labour members so it sounds like yours is bang on average

  14. Jimjam,
    Yg usually only do DK reallocation in their final poll before an election. And given that last time this led to a less accurate result perhaps they will think twice about doing it at all next time round?

  15. Going back to the polling point I made before I allowed myself to be tempted to wind oldest up (sorry). With Labour in the lead in Scotland in this poll when will we have a new Scotland only poll which asks two VI questions, one for the UK as a whole amid one for the Scottish Parliament.

    I do think that we might be seeing a shift to split voting. I do speak as someone who has a large family is Scotland, the younger element had shifted to the SNP before the Indy referendum and their parents who were very strong Labour supporters, in some cases , Party members who moved to the SNP in 2015 out of anger that Labour in Scotland had moved to the right. Both groups have shifted their ground. The older family members returned to Labour in the last week of the GE and the younger family members are now openly talking about voting Labour in UK ballots. In part this shift is down to a expectation that there will not be a second referendum in Scotland for at least ten years and that if they are to remain in the UK they do not want to have a Tory government.

    I know that there is an internal contradiction in the statement I have made as if all of the seats in Scotland remained SNP the Tories would not be helped but as soon as the anti Tory vote was split that allowed the Tories to be kept in power by Scottish voters. This I think is good no to play out to very interesting results over the next two elections.

  16. This would give Labour 16 seats in Scotland and the Conservatives 11. 9 Lab gains from SNP and 2 SNP gains from Conservative (Stirling and Gordon).

    Labour would win a majority of seats in Glasgow (4 Lab and 3 SNP) and also North Lanarkshire (Lab 3 SNP 1).

  17. @Danny: “One of the recent surveys found 2/3 opposing hard Brexit, whereas some conservatives keep arguing this is what the nation voted for.”

    I think there will be an almost immeasurably short period of time between Remainers being successful in getting a “soft Brexit”, and declaring that “soft Brexit” makes no sense and it is all become pointless.

    Personally, I think the Brexit situation is far too confused (what does Labour actually want?) to say that the public has moved to Labour because it opposes “Hard Brexit”. There has been a massive shift in impressions of the leaders – although Theresa May has proved that such things are built on sand. I can criticise Labour’s substantive policies all I like, but the truth is that the big shift in the election came after two events:

    a. The Labour manifesto; and
    b. The Tory manifesto.

    Unless it is all down to personalities, there is some significance there.

    But I do think that Brexit morale will suffer badly for being now indelibly associated with someone who didn’t actually support it.

  18. Cambridgerachel,
    “That poll only just gives labour a majority,”

    Yes, but it is a continuation of a trend which has been going on for months.Nothwithstanding the election having happened. Though conservatives behaviour post election has not been calculated to encourage their side. More a row over why they lost and infighting showing division and giving the impression they are unfit to govern.The problem which had afflicted labour.

    The arguments continue here that brexit was not a decisive issue in the election, but I think it was. Even if it was not in itself the one and only issue any pollster needed to look at in order to predict the result, it was way up there. But as an approximation, look at the national division on Brexit, and it was mirrored in the lab/con share assuming con=leave and lab=remain. (plus difficulties with rump UKIP and lib, and where the uncommitted 10% went)

    Polling is still accepting the official parliamentary line that Brexit will happen, and so long as questions presuppose this is an inevitable conclusion they will continue to skew results.

    Analyst,
    ” the biggest thing driving the bigger CON-LAB gap is ‘don’t knows’.”

    An interesting reversal of the situation in the run up to the last election, where it was labour supporters who had defected to ‘dont know’. They came back. Would May or her successor be able to do the same? Perhaps, what is the reason for the defection, and therefore can it be overcome is the right question.

  19. I suppose what I mean to say is that, during my time following this site, the main lesson has been that public opinion moves slowly.

    The came the week after the manifestos and that was turned on its head.

    It would be a mistake to assume any of:

    a. The present polling represents a new normal, which will shift only slowly because that is what public opinion is like.

    b. The only normal is still the norm, and there will be reversion to that in due course.

    c. There’s bound to be another big change shortly.

    In short, we know nothing. Corbyn should remember what happened to May. I was looking at the Times for the day after the Tory manifesto – great reviews, but a few grumbles. A day later, the grumbles were the only thing in the news. A cautionary tale.

    The big problem for the Tories is that have been elected into office without power – and are liable to lose popularity due to the ridiculousness of that situation.

  20. Joseph1832,
    “the truth is that the big shift in the election came after two events: [manifestos]”

    I disagree. The start of changes was leave deserting UKIP for tory, and remain flocking to libs. But then it became clear Leave were amassing to con, and the only real rival was labour. Whether or not labour are truly remain, ‘the enemy of my enemey’, and all that. The growth of remain support for labour and leave support for con was clear on every successive poll which asked leave/remain affiliation. Though I think the conservatives managed to scare some soft brexiters towards labour.

    I do agree the nation liked the labour manifesto and disliked the conservative’s. But this was pushing in the same direction as Remain swing to labour. I think Brexit has catalysed the nation’s stance on ‘austerity’, because just as the economy was showing some signs of looking up, the vote and its economic consequences has pushed this into reverse. The conservatives confirmed this with a ‘brexit and extra austerity’ manifesto. The mood has turned against both.

    Labour did recover a lot of labour voters who had switched to dont know. The situation currently seems to have reversed: whereas it was labour voters uncertain about their party’s stance, now it is conservatives. It remains to be seen if the conservatives can defuse this problem, especially if it is at root because they are still pushing hard Brexit, which is becoming increasingly unpopular.

  21. joseph1832,
    “I suppose what I mean to say is that, during my time following this site, the main lesson has been that public opinion moves slowly.”

    I wouldnt necessarily disagree. But I would suggest the public does not necessarily know its own mind, and the effect of a vote is to crystalise what they really think, had they bothered to sit down and work it out. But one of the result analysis polls had an increase in people who found their decision at this election easier than last time. Presumably they felt the issues were clearer. The conservatives sought to make the issue simple, by calling for the nation to support them in driving through hard Brexit. I think this failed because there was insufficient support for this policy, and it was rejected by as many or more than supported it.

    I see this as a slow reversing of the Brexit referendum result. A steady change, as you suggest. People were asked a different question this time to what was on the ballot of the referendum, specifically about a hard Brexit option. Having now been asked, they answered.

    But there is crowd momentum in this effect as well. Every politician who starts a statement by saying ‘we are leaving because of the referendum’ once more reminds voters that they are the people who should have the right to choose, and they are looking about and noticing that they are choosing to remain.

  22. Not much in the tables, but don’t think anyone has mentioned the Social Grade cross-break yet. C2DEs seem to be pretty evenly split Con/Lab, but it’s the ABC1s that are giving Labour the lead. MoE shouldn’t be too bad on a two-way cross-break.

    More evidence I suppose of Corbyn as a bourgeois lefty (or rather appealing to those, whether he is one or not). No great surprise there, but what I do find surprising is that I thought the YouGov review after the GE didn’t show this at all:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/

    Well, the C2DE split is within error, but the ABC1 split is completely different. So more young (young meaning not retired) professionals turning to Lab? Or just a blip.

  23. davem: “I do understand the difference between a County Council and a legislative body, indeed I would like to see several such bodies across the UK resulting in a much more federal structure for all regions of a United Kingdom, giving the North East of England parity with Scotland for instance.”

    Indeed, this was on offer from New Labour post 1997 and IMO would have shifted power quite helpfully. It would have helped deal with regional discontents and I think that any Brexit referendum would have been a different animal in both implementation and outworking.

    But what scuppered it was local referendums in the NE and NW, where I think the main perception was that the assemblies would be no more than glorified county councils. It is a meme which I believe did some unrecognised damage to the UK,

  24. We need another poll on the referendum question, to see if people have changed their minds.

    The main political parties have to respect the referendum result for democratic reasons. So the only way to stop Brexit would be a non-parliamentary mass movement of Remainers to convince wavering Leavers to change sides. It could work (e.g. the poll tax ‘riots’ got rid of Thatcher), but they’ll have be quick, and there’s no sign of it happening.

  25. Trigguy,
    ” it’s the ABC1s that are giving Labour the lead.”

    But the changes in support amongst all the groups this time were such as to reduce the bias in any group one way or the other. The groups are more party neutral than previously.

  26. Old Nat from previous thread, re Scottish crossbreak. You are a Famous Bear on UKPR and I was teasing you.

    CR
    So 1200 ish is the average membership for CLPs, our neighbour CLP has membership running into the several thousands, so if we’re average then somewhere they must be down to 3 men and a dog!

  27. I think the worry with polls like these is it might well mean more harassment and pressure on moderate Labour MPs. Sky news already discussed the level of bullying on TV this morning.

  28. Danny
    “…they are the people who should have the right to choose, and they are looking about and noticing that they are choosing to remain.”

    A few opinion polls suggest that support for ‘Hard Brexit’ is lower than some other options. This is not the people choosing. The referendum was the people choosing. They chose to leave the EU.

    Are we supposed to have a new referendum every time an opinion poll comes out?

  29. RICH

    With VI like this , Corbyn’s Labour Party really doesn’t have to worry about what the “moderates” think or do any more. Either they break away , or they will be ejected, or they bend the knee. It is finished.

    For me the “worry” about polls like these is the state of the Conservative Party.

  30. PETEB

    @”Are we supposed to have a new referendum every time an opinion poll comes out?”

    Yes-I think thats the plan-followed by an endless “transition period” in which we never actually leave the EU at all-but pretend we have.

  31. @ Pete

    “There is no way Labour is 8 points in front of cons.
    An election tomorrow imo would leave us where we are now, con leading in a hung parliament.”

    That’s just your opinion….

    There’s one way to test that theory. See if you can persuade the Tories to call a GE in October. They won’t!

    The reality is that the Tories are running scared at the prospect of another GE, because they know they’ll lose more seats, and possibly the government….

  32. Colin get with the program – Interim please!!

  33. It’s fine by me, wearing my partisan hat, if people continue to disbelieve the polls which mostly (with the exception of Survation) underestimated Labour last month. If there is a real chance of electing Labour to power, the turnout will increase further amongst the younger voters. It can’t increase much further amongst the oldest.
    These polls do still allow for the possibility of a hung parliament, but it’s highly unlikely that Labour would fail to form a government given the current state of the parties, and it would be surprising if the passage of time doesn’t weaken the Tory position still further. Labour has come a very long way in 2 short months – the mindset of the electorate has fundamentally changed. It could obviously change back so it would be an error for Labour to assume that everything is bound to come up roses. The party must continue to fight in the way it is doing now. The Tories’ best hope is to change their leader as soon as practical, but that is far from guaranteed to bring the desired effect from their point of view.

  34. @ Colin

    “Corbyn’s Labour Party really doesn’t have to worry about what the “moderates” think or do any more. Either they break away , or they will be ejected, or they bend the knee. It is finished.”

    Quite right! Most of the Blairites either jumped ship before the GE (Tristram Hunt, Jamie Reed, etc), or have since come back into the fold with their tails between their legs, heaping praise on Corbyn (Umunna, Harman, Watson, Cooper, etc). That leaves just a handful, like Chris Leslie, who are swimming against the tide. Even most of the 40-odd who voted for Umunna’s proposal recently still speak highly of Corbyn.

  35. JIM JAM

    Yes-of course-you are so right. We must use the correct word:-

    Transition:- the process or a period of changing from one state or condition to another.

    Interim :-the intervening time.provisional, temporary, pro tem, stopgap,

  36. Re the moderates vs the left

    I seem to remember a certain T Blair giving peerages and retiring off lots of left wing local MP’s and replacing them with former SPAD’s, often parachuting them into safe seats.

    Cameron had his A-List of Cameronista’s that was not dissimilar.

    So the idea that a parties leadership might try and use various slightly underhand methods to create a more loyal/supportive parliamentary party is not particularly new and certainly not confined to the Left.

  37. @danny
    “The start of changes was leave deserting UKIP for tory, and remain flocking to libs”

    when did remain flock to the lib dems? I dont recall them getting any sort of polling boost after 2015.

  38. Pete B: “The referendum was the people choosing. They chose to leave the EU.
    Are we supposed to have a new referendum every time an opinion poll comes out?”

    No, we are supposed to have a decent referendum in the first place. By that, I mean a question where the alternatives are clear options. Plainly, although the question itself was clear [before anyone points that out], the alternative of leaving the EU was not clear, hence the turmoil we are now in.

    The Scots Indyref had an Independence prospectus of hundreds of pages which answered most questions. That is what we should have had for the Brexit referendum. We would have known what option of many we were looking at, we would have known whether the EU would have gone along with it and if we had voted for Brexit, we would have had less grounds to dislike the Brexit we were getting.

    As it is, it is plain that whatever we end up with will be quite unacceptable for a majority and I think that we can only close this down with another referendum. If this does not happen as part of the approval of Brexit, there will need to be another iteration closed out by a referendum in a decade or so.

    I think it was on the previous thread, there was some discussion of the question of the most important issues for voters and whether Remainers might interpret ‘Brexit’ as either ‘leaving’ or ‘the question of leaving’ and rate with lowest or highest priority according to interpretation. I can quite see this confusion and as a Remainer, I have seen the Polling question with Brexit included and thought there is no option for me to state remaining in the EU as a priority and felt very much aware that if I set Brexit as highest priority, I would send a message counter to what I really believe.

    Now polling should perhaps inform, but perhaps not influence thinking and events. But on the issue of Brexit, we got it because of muddled thinking and referendum options being vague. Unfortunately, I think that the polling question on the priority of Brexit may be falsely representing Brexit as only being of concern to leavers in the asking and falsely representing only leavers as being concerned about Brexit in the reporting.

    If this is informing debate, then there is probably a strand of thinking which is not being aired, which will mean that the ultimate Brexit settlement is even more likely to need to be overturned in the long run. BTW, I am not arguing that it will necessarily be overturned to being full EU members again, just arguing that reversal along with all the other options will need to be reconsidered.

  39. JIM JAM

    Will Corbyn’s Labour Party support the CBI’s call for an” Interim” period in the Single Market ?

  40. VOR – yes and sorry to repeat from an earlier thread – a very small number of deselections may occur but the real action is in winnable (esp currently held) seats as the become vacant.

    The faux shrill is coming mainly from Lab opponents plus a few inside the movement.

  41. RJW

    “CR
    So 1200 ish is the average membership for CLPs, our neighbour CLP has membership running into the several thousands, so if we’re average then somewhere they must be down to 3 men and a dog!”

    Yep, that would be the constituency I’ve moved to, btw I think the dog is a Tory mole!

  42. Colin – quite frankly I don’t know but I hope so

  43. Colin

    It would be consistent with a jobs first Brexit

  44. Labour already have backed the CBI on Brexit transition, see Sam Coates (Times) tweet yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/883008501416697857

    Must say the image Labour are trying to create for themselves is certainly interesting. It might make for good optics, though it’s certainly ideologically incoherent. But let’s face it, voters don’t really care about ideology or what is ‘left’ and ‘right’ and that’s proven time and time again.

    But a party trending towards left populism while backing the CBI – arguably the definition of the corporate establishment? Broad churches and all that I guess….

  45. More G20 rioting this morning from the anti capitalist protestors, no doubt getting there with modern transport, wearing multinational clothes, with their smart phones and expecting to enjoy modern healthcare if they get injured.

  46. @rich – fyi there is no contradiction in being opposed to the destructiveness and inequities of capitalism whilst being in favour of technology, transport and healthcare.

  47. “I think the worry with polls like these is it might well mean more harassment and pressure on moderate Labour MPs. Sky news already discussed the level of bullying on TV this morning.”

    ————

    Well they might seem moderate to some who are even more out on the fringes, but compared to traditional Labour Party concerns they deviated really quite a bit!! They did things even Conservatices baulked at. Anyways, they seem to be causing quite enough trouble themselves, rather than being bullied. Membership even campaigned assiduously to help them keep their seats, as opposed to bullying, despite their shenanigans, as Syzygy pointed out.

  48. @Rich

    “no doubt getting there with modern transport, wearing multinational clothes, with their smart phones and expecting to enjoy modern healthcare if they get injured.”

    ———–

    C’mon Rich, that’s a tired old soundbite we’ve all heard before. And they’re not anti progress, they’re concerned with how the fruits of it get divvied out and reinvested.

  49. [email protected]

    More Nike Lad than Ned Ludd?

  50. Well to be fair, it’s possible some of a more green persuasion have issues with dome aspects of “progress” from a sustainability point of view. Then there’s the entropy aspect was discussing with Laszlo which you might want to take into account…

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