The Times have published their first YouGov poll since the general election. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%. This is the largest Labour lead we’ve seen in any poll since the election, though the vast majority of polls have shown them ahead. Fieldwork was yesterday and today.

Full tabs are here.

To provide the usual post-election methodology note, there’s not much change here – YouGov have gone back to removing don’t knows rather than reallocating, meaning this is pretty much the method they used earlier in the election campaign that tended to mirror their MRP model. The only significant change is that UKIP have been relegated out of the main prompt and back to “others”.


1,528 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%”

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  1. Talk of a coup against May in the autumn. Who knows what’s going to happen!!??

  2. Notice that 10 out 10 likelihood to vote is just a tad higher with labour. That’s a good sign I think

  3. How long can the Tories keep Theresa May as leader with polls like this? It will make them very nervous. It’s difficult to envisage the DUP coalition will bring them any good headlines. Astonishing turnaround In past 2 months.

  4. And this is before the Tories have had to make any unpalatable compromises on Brexit. There are some clouds on the Labour horizon too, I think the public won’t like the brewing row on deselections. If it happens, there’ll be a lot of ex Lab MPs with nothing to lose.
    All the same. I think I’d rather be in n Corbyn’s shoes rather than May’s.

  5. Hmm, I thought the enthusiasm for Labour might be coming off the boil. Clearly not. And falling below that magically-solid 40% line is not good news for the Tories at all. The pressure for May to stay and deals done to forestall any election will increase I imagine. Any sign of support from the Lib Dems will also be courted assiduously.

  6. And those sub-samples for Scotland, skewed though they may be, will be painful reading for the SNP.

    For Labour, it’s a recovery to form I imagined would never happen, certainly not under Dugdale, who I doubt has much to do with it.

    The Tory numbers are still pretty positive though, albeit not zooming into first place as could, perhaps, have happened under different circumstances.

  7. What is quite shocking is that the age divide has got even more extreme than before the election. In YouGov’s last poll before:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/d8zsb99eyd/TimesResults_FINAL%20CALL_GB_June2017_W.pdf#page=3

    For 65+: Con 50%, Lab 22%
    For 18-24: Con 15%, Lab 53%

    Now:
    For 65+: Con 53%, Lab 15%
    For 18-24: Con 12%, Lab 60%

    Both are from the breakdowns including DKs etc. Indeed one main reason for the Tory drop is that their voters have moved to DK at twice the rate of Labour’s. This is also the only VI poll I have ever seen when the DK rate for 18-24 is not much higher than the other age groups but the lowest – 7% when all the other age groups are in the teens.

  8. SSSIMON
    why would the LDs want to be seen by the electorate to be propping up this Tory government. What possible advantage would it give them?
    As the last GE showed they are only competitive in Tory seats now.

  9. @ RJW

    There have been rumours the Lib Dems might offer support on a specific case-by-case basis. Probably not Brexit issues, but perhaps passing basic legislation. They’ve often shown themselves to be pragmatic when push comes to shove.

  10. Sssimon
    I suppose they might be after Tory remainers, but that’s not a massive pool to fish in.
    If the LDs support the Tories again, it could well be the end of them. When they were higher in the polls they attracted majority more LoC voters than RoC.

  11. Not a lot to do with polling but this, from the comments section of a an article in the Guardian [ on footy but the comments diverted on to the question of why so many footballers cover themselves in tattoos ] amused me:

    “There was a bloke in front of me in the supermarket a while back and he had “one life – live it” tattooed on the back of his neck.

    He was buying white cider and economy scotch eggs.”

  12. SSSIMON
    Wot Cloudspotter said.
    The electorate don’t deal in nuanced ‘pragmatism’, all they would see is the LDs acting as an air raid shelter for the Tories.

  13. Lib dems are leaking voters to labour, I say leaking but flooding might be a better description

  14. I really wish they wouldn’t lump the midlands in with wales there are clearly two different areas

  15. Would be a massive own goal if Labour deselect MPs.

  16. Paul Croft
    White cider and scotch eggs? That chap was clearly living the Dream……………………………………………………….:..:…………….:……………:::.::….::::

  17. Paul Croft

    In your local supermarket, is their a healthy eating difference between their “economy Scotch eggs” and their premium ones?

    Clearly, excessive intake of alcohol may reduce life span, but is their evidence that white cider is more damaging than Sancerre?

    I presume that you are making a value judgment that living your “one life” is best served by buying caviar and Bollinger. That option may not have been open to “the bloke”.

  18. There’s deselection and there’s deselection. Even if they increase the numbers of reselection contests it doesn’t necessarily mean that in practice there will be many or even deselections. And there is no evidence that deselecting Simon Danczuk did the party any harm. Of course other deselections could prove more controversial but it’s all speculation at this point.

  19. Anthony et al

    Am I right in thinking YouGov have never polled Labour as high as 46% in the past, or terribly misguided?

    I’m less certain than some that this will encourage Cons to have May cling on. A new leader doesn’t have to mean a GE, and if they keep May in power, when she falls they’ll be splashed: could mean long-term damage if the party is seen to be incompetent and unwilling to make necessary decisions.

  20. zach

    “I really wish they wouldn’t lump the midlands in with wales there are clearly two different areas”

    Different? Neither is in SE England, so does it matter?

    Those pollsters who poll UK, do provide crossbreaks for the nations (even if they are so small as to be rather meaningless). Randomly aggregating polities with a bit of another one seems both pointless and patronising.

  21. Kester leek

    Pretty sure that Miliband hit those heights at least once. About the time of ombishambles

  22. I’ve forgotten whether YouGov were weighting voters likelihood-to-vote by their age and social class? If so, has that now been adjusted so that they are weighted to 2017’s election result rather than 2015’s?

  23. CAMBRIDGE RACHEL

    On the contrary. I’ve just checked, and 46% is the joint highest Labour have managed since at least 2010.

    It happened one time besides, but with Ipsos Mori, in 2012.

    Not bad going for a terrorist sympathising communist. (Sorry, all; partisan away!)

    (That said, the prospect of John McDonnell as shadow chancellor is enough to send a shiver down even a revolutionary’a spine!)

  24. what is all this talk about a “deselection row?” – a few of the arch blairites are briefing their mates in the media about how unfair it is that if they continue to campaign against the leadership (and – indeed – the vast majority of the membership) then they may be risking deselection.
    This bleating will be of interest to nobody outside the westminster bubble and political nerds. The rest of the party is confident and more united than it has been in years.
    A few of the worst offenders being de-selected over the next couple of years will have very little impact on anything other than their own egos. I suspect most of them will reign it in other than moaning to their chums at the guardian – who are probably the only people who are going to listen to them.

  25. @ CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    Lib dems are leaking voters to labour, I say leaking but flooding might be a better description
    ————————————————————————

    I’m surprised. In the GE, the actual numbers of votes for the LDs was noticeably constant. In many constituencies, the 2017 vote was almost identical to the 2015 vote. Mind they started from a low base but it looks to me to be the loyal core vote.

  26. They did match 46% in one poll in 2012 (Ipsos-MORI), but from YouGov I believe 46% is Labour’s highest ever, going all the way back to their first polling in 2002. They’ve had plenty of 45% though.

  27. CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    Pretty sure that Miliband hit those heights [of 46% with YouGov] at least once. About the time of ombishambles

    Oddly enough it doesn’t appear so. He managed to get to 45% loads of times (26 by my reckoning) in 2011 (even before omnishambles) 2012 and early 2013:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/s57qaa3btf/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-050515.pdf

    but never managed to get that extra little bit. It’s a reminder that things can change.

  28. @Laszlo

    Just do you know, replied briefly on previous thread.

  29. “what is all this talk about a “deselection row?” – a few of the arch blairites are briefing their mates in the media about how unfair it is that if they continue to campaign against the leadership (and – indeed – the vast majority of the membership) then they may be risking deselection.”

    ————-

    Yes, for some reason, Corbynists are supposed to keep accommodating the Nulabbers, but somehow apostles of Nulabism don’t criticise Nulabbers for not exactly being accommodating of Corbyn.

  30. There was me thinking that the Labour lead was something like 1-2%.

    Possibly not.

    A different Conservative leader say within a year and their party back in front might inspire another attempt at a sizeable majority. Lots of things need to go right for that to happen. I can’t see it myself.

  31. While geographical crossbreaks in a GB poll don’t have a lot of meaning, this certainly doesn’t support the idea of a SCon breakthrough in Scotland.

    We would need more penetrative polling than we have seen to determine any answer, but the prospect of a Labour Government at Westminster may have encouraged some of the inchoate mass of SNP/SLab switching population to vote SLab.

    Which would suggest that the SNP’s messaging about the performance of SLab v SNP MPs hasn’t worked.

  32. Ok I know that cross breaks have a massive moe , but looking at Scotland is interesting Lab ahead of the SNP and the Tories well behind. If we get a Scotland only poll showing this same outcome there are a lot f Labour gains to be had.

    Could it be that the Scots are waking up to the fact that splitting the none Tory vote gets them a Tory government and we are seeing a return to split voting, Labour said n GE and SNP in Assembly elections? If so the Tory gains in Scotland could be short lived.

  33. Reggieside

    The spin on this story is incredible, a Facebook post by one person and suddenly it’s front page news and apparently Corbyn is directing this. Unfortunately this kind of briefing by the “moderates” and the spinning by the media is like pouring petrol on a fire.

    There is still a lot of anger about the events last summer and particularly the suspension/expulsion of members and the disenfranchisement of more than a hundred thousand members. Given time those feelings will subside but of course chuka brought it back into people’s minds again and now this. Also lots of fake news both from the Tories and the ‘moderates which is starting to look coordinated.

    The plan is to cause havoc by upsetting the members. Probably they are aiming to shut down the party conference because they don’t have a majority there this year.

  34. One further point…

    On April 13th, 12 weeks ago, YouGov had Labour on 23%.

    Labour is now on 46%.

    What’s the fastest a ‘big two’ party has doubled their vote share previously?

    Lib Dems, in a slightly less impressive (though still remarkable) feat might’ve managed it as fast in 2010.

    Whatever your political stance, this is a moment to mark.

    Have we hit ‘peak Corbyn’? We said so here, and in the media, at 30%. At 35%, 40%, now 45%+?

  35. That age breakdown for both Tories and Labour in YouGov is atrocious. Both parties should be ashamed of having such minimal appeal with the respective age groups.

  36. @ DaveM

    Scotland has a Parliament, not an Assembly. That’s why it has MSPs, not MLAs (as Wales and NI have).

  37. “There is still a lot of anger about the events last summer and particularly the suspension/expulsion of members and the disenfranchisement of more than a hundred thousand members. Given time those feelings will subside but of course chuka brought it back into people’s minds again and now this. Also lots of fake news both from the Tories and the ‘moderates which is starting to look coordinated.”

    ———

    Yes, a bit odd if they deselect members and then protest about possible deselection for themselves.

  38. @kitsune

    I stand corrected. It is all I can do to resist calling it a County Council.

  39. Dave M

    It’s seldom that any post on here can be labelled as stupid – but you have achieved that. Congratulations!

  40. Dave M

    Perhaps the County Council in wherever you live, can legislate on the structure of the NHS there – though I rather doubt that,

    Regardless of the political composition of the Scottish Government (SLab/SLD or SNP) it has followed a very different agenda from that determined by the Westminster Government for England’s NHS (regardless of whether Lab or Con have been in power)..

    I should probably amend my previous response to you. It wasn’t just stupid, but stupidity generated by ignorance.

    Clearly, you haven’t bothered to realise that the Scottish Parliament (like the Welsh and Northern Irish Assemblies) is a legislative body. Additionally, it has the previously administrative devolved powers that the Scottish Office had – including NHS Scotland as well as a wide range of other responsibilities that were never subject to Whitehall.

    You may wish (but probably won’t) to have a look at the Nuffield Trust’s analysis of the lessons NHS Scotland has to offer the rest of the UK.

    https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/research/learning-from-scotland-s-nhs

    The really big problem with (what you probably considered) your “clever” quip to Kitsune, is that it broadcast to everyone how little you know or understand about how the UK actually works.

  41. I can find one poll from November 2012 where Labour polled at 46% Lots of 45% ratings from the same time period. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015

  42. Interesting that when I plug this into the swingometer it still only gives a Labour majority of 8.

  43. Looks like the Conservative shield war is fracturing, but cannot see any one wanting to mount a leadership challenge in the present circumstances

  44. Shouls read shield ”wall”

  45. There is no way Labour is 8 points in front of cons.
    An election tomorrow imo would leave us where we are now, con leading in a hung parliament.

  46. This could give a Labour majority of as little as 8, it depends how you round percentages up.
    In practice, if Labour leads by as much as 8% in a general election, more seats would be more likely to fall.

  47. THEOPHILEESCARGOT

    Curious because when I plugged the raw figures into the swingometer linked to on this page I got a Labour majority of 98 on the current boundaries and 96 on the proposed 2011 boundaries.

    But when I plug the figures into the new swingometer I get the same results as you did, strange.

    On the other hand if I plug in the Scotland results in separately I get a Labour majority of 34.

  48. Pete
    Just so you know, my CLP has over 1200 members now, this from around 300 two years ago.
    If we had a GE tomorrow I reckon this lead of 8 points, coupled with the ‘ground war’ Lab can wage cos of our mass membership makes the most unlikely Tory seats vulnerable, think Canterbury should be our motto.
    All the above IMO, of course.

  49. Interesting that YG don’t reallocate 2017 DKs back to party of their last GE vote in at all?

    Richard on the previous thread has helpfully extracted that 14% of 2017 Tory GE voters are now DK and that this is the main statistical reason for the size of the lead in this poll above the 2-4% average of others.

    He suggests that these are one time Brexit voters who wont back the cons again but I am not so sure that all the 14% would be such voters.. Some could be Lab leaning unionist Scots who regret their vote and others could be disappointed Cons Remainters who believed the GE was about negating the Hard Brexit MPs in the Tory party and or just Tories who don’t like the DUP and of course I expect some shy Tories to re-appear if that is not an oxymoron.

    This is the normal pattern for Governing parties that they lose support to DK’s over the life of a parliament, hence the swing back theories.

    The last parliament was odd in that the swing back was to the opposition in part due to it only lasting 2 years,the May Honeymoon but also Corbyn phobia as some ‘cant vote Lab again while he leader’ peeps were always going to hold their nose in the end (Of course they got many new and former DNVs on top).

    This time there has been no Honeymoon and the ambivalence leading to a DK response from some usual Con voters has happened earlier but I still think a decent proportion of that 14% will vote con in the end at the next GE

  50. As Labour showed in the last GE, Tory DKs will vote Tory in the end.

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