The Times have published their first YouGov poll since the general election. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%. This is the largest Labour lead we’ve seen in any poll since the election, though the vast majority of polls have shown them ahead. Fieldwork was yesterday and today.

Full tabs are here.

To provide the usual post-election methodology note, there’s not much change here – YouGov have gone back to removing don’t knows rather than reallocating, meaning this is pretty much the method they used earlier in the election campaign that tended to mirror their MRP model. The only significant change is that UKIP have been relegated out of the main prompt and back to “others”.


1,528 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 38%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%”

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  1. @Passtherockplease

    I agree with everything you say.

    There was a discussion recently on a local political site here in Sunny Clacton. The question was asked if people had changed their mind since the referendum and if so why (or why not). Practically all of those who had voted leave were still in the leave camp and their reasons had absolutely nothing to do with economics. It was overwhelmingly the “taking back control” argument which even far outscored immigration, though, of course, a corollary of the taking back control is the thought of reducing immigration.

    However, as you say, PTRP, it was mostly an emotional argument about not letting Brussels rule and returning sovereignty. Not one leaver mentioned the economy.

  2. Monochome – I think my point it that the EZ zone is less secure than the EU. Not going to rehearse the debate again but suffice to say a reduction in EZ size without the EU being reduced in possible. (How likely well that’s too long a discussion for this or any Sunday morning).

  3. Jim [email protected] ” – I think my point it that the EZ zone is less secure than the EU. Not going to rehearse the debate again but suffice to say a reduction in EZ size without the EU being reduced in possible. (How likely well that’s too long a discussion for this or any Sunday morning).”

    Yes, the likelihood is too much to discuss. But it is possible the EZ could reduce – or indeed increase. As I was addressing ToH initially, I would not count say Greece dropping out as being a collapse of the EZ.

  4. The papers are full of members of the Cabinet threatening to kick each other in the b*llocks(Johnson, Davis). Are we in for a Summer of this febrile nonsense? As a Labour supporter I hope so!

  5. Analyst

    “I think TonyBTG read the tables wrong. Amber scores no better than anyone else on the hypothetical polling for leadership. Indeed Labour had a healthy 4.3 point lead over the Tories vs Amber. I think the closest was just over 2 point lead for Labour vs Boris or Davis but these differences are small fry really”

    Yes, you are right I was wrong.

    It was late and I’d had too much red wine.

    I thought it looked wrong.

  6. MGM to

  7. Was there a rumour that we would be getting an IPSOS MORI poll.

    Any ideas when ?

  8. Tony – it is difficult one for me. Whilst the Tories at each others throats, allegedly, helps Labour if the country is damaged significantly by those divisions should you and I be pleased?

  9. Jim jam

    Don’t get me wrong. I said it as a joke. But part of me is also seriously worried for me and my children.

    Our country faces its most serious challenge in generations. We are split, we are vulnerable and our government is bogged down by infighting.

    Putting aside what’s good or bad for Labour. I sincerely think our government needs to get a grip for all our sakes or get out…

  10. Al Urqa: “If it says Pete B at the top of the post I always skip to the next one.”

    Well, someone suggested I had been a bit brusque in my original comment, and I apologise to Pete B for that.

    I have no problem with people not knowing stuff. We all have huge areas of ignorance in our personal knowledge fields. For instance, I know almost nothing about synths (except that some are made by a bloke called Roland. Maybe.) But for that reason I wouldn’t go onto UK Synth Report declaiming strong views about synths. If I did, I wouldn’t expect an easy ride.

    I learnt this lesson years ago as a student. Then as now I didn’t know much about football, but was trying to stay involved in a pub discussion that had turned to football. So I used a half-remembered phrase that sounded OK. “Do they use a midfield striker?” I asked brightly. There was a stunned silence before an outbreak of ribald derision.

  11. @Norbold and PTRP I am sure that you are both right. The driving force behind Brexit is emotional – a desire to ‘get our country back’, not be bullied by Brussels, not surrender those things for which people died and so on. I think there is polling that suggests that ‘people describe their decision in terms of ‘sovereignty’ and then ‘immigration’ (although the two are obviously linked).

    I think there may be some caveats to this. Less aware voters than Labour party members in Claction may have felt that they had a free hit and there would be no economic downside. They may be less keen on Brexit if it becomes clear that it is. And because the vote to leave was in a sense a vote for an undetermined future there are likely to be very different compromises which people would be prepared to make if push comes to shove. (In this sense the assertion that there is no hard or soft Brexit but just Brexit is misleading. We can clearly leave on very different terms and we don’t know what would command a majority.

    In addition to the above there is an irony. National humiliation (the signing of capitulations in railway carriages, going cap in hand to the IMF and so on) go with lack of international clout and a weak economy. We were warned by Obama and others that Brexit would damage both but this argument was completely discounted in the campaign and it is hard to know what will happen if it comes to pass. Probably like Brexiters will blame it on the weaknesss of the remainers and stay of the same opinion as before.

    All in all I think we are in danger of moving remorselessly to a situation where we get the worst of all worlds: a divided country, leaders who dare not call the whole thing off, an EU unable or unwilling to deliver a deal, and a clock remorselessly ticking out its domesday message.

    The only way I can see out of it is to craft something that is assertive enough to satisfy the Brexiters, as close to the current situation on trade as is needed to satisfy the remainers, and as close as possible to a model that would enable the EU to meet its need or a two speed Europe as to have in it something for them. I can’t at the moment see that anybody is trying to achiee anything remotely like that.

  12. Agree whilst Labour infighting has been problematic for the party whether the Blair/Brown stuff or more recently, it cant be said to be responsible for significant damage to the country.

    Tory arguments over Europe have caused major problems for the UK for pushing 30 years now.

    Whether entering the ERM at too high a level as those in favour had to act while Thatcher weak in stead of a better time, leading to Black Wednesday or Cameron’s shenanigans to keep the party together placing us where we are now.

    NB) There is a case ERM membership was not right but that is not the point in this context.

  13. NORBOLD

    interesting anecdote. The polls tend to suggest the same nationally: hardly anyone has changed their mind on the core question of leave or remain.

    I personally can’t think of a single person I know who has changed their mind. Is there any poster here who has changed in either direction, given the barrage of detailed arguments? Even one?

    On the Survation poll:
    I was struck that while 38% thought that Brexit would be good for the UK economy generally, only 15% thought it would be good for their personal economy. Are Brexiters really so unselfish?

  14. Are not is.

  15. Charles: “The only way I can see out of it…”

    I agree with much of your analysis, except that I think the ‘bullied by Brussels’ idea, whilst a very influential perception and motivation, is the product mainly of imperfect understanding of how the system works. As is shown up when phone-in brexit supporters are challenged to cite an example of Brussels bullying. Usually there’s nothing forthcoming, beyond straight bananas.

    Ironically, thanks to the brexit process I think a lot of people will learn more in the next couple of years about things like the influence and importance of the European Parliament, and the strength of EU nations when they stand together, than they did through the first 43 years of our membership.

    But to return to your words at the top: I suspect the easiest (ie most politically expedient for the Tories) will be a full exit in 2019, but with a 2-3 year extension of associate membership on existing terms while a Canada-style free trade deal is negotiated.

    That would work well from an EU point of view, in that they would get rid of their most recalcitrant member and its malign influence, whilst retaining the UK as a soft market. And it would leave the UK free to make its way in the world (or not).

  16. RJW

    “The Tory remainers will soon need to put country before party.”

    Don’t think that is going to happen.

    The problem is that even if we have a GE, the situation might not get any better.

    If the polls turn out to be correct, we will end up with another hung parliament but this time with possibly Labour as largest party. Or with the Tories largest, but in the 280s rather than the 314 they have now.

    In the context of where the country is, I don’t see that outcome as helping.

    It’s one almighty mess. It will be the most vulnerable who suffer. Many of them probably people who voted leave because they thought that change was needed and that was the change they wanted.

  17. Somerjohn

    “Plenty of brexiters had until now refused to accept the existence of these liabilities.”

    Well not me or David Davis for that matter. I heard him say words to that effect months ago and it has always been my view. Some of the sums mentioned have of course been ludicrous hence comments from people like Boris.

    “But, as when an army retreats from one ill-prepared position to the next, ”

    But it’s not as I just explained, check back on what Davis has said if you don’t believe me. There is no sign of the Governments position crumbling IMO, just wishful thinking by some Remainers.

    As to your source, the FT and the Guardian are to me like the D Mail and the D Telegraph are to you. All four papers are heavily biased in their reporting.

    Loved your “Lions led by donkeys?” World War1 reference, almost as funny as Lord Adonis and his appeasement nonsense. He of course just got it the wrong way round; it is the Remainers who are the appeasers. You’re in danger of straying from your fact based approach again.

    Monochrome October

    I note your comments to my reply to you. Did you look up the other references I gave you? Are Sigliz and the LSE just being sneaky?

    Alec
    Thanks for replying, I don’t agree with you at all, but we don’t agree on brexit so no surprise.

    Pete B
    “There will obviously be some economic turbulence but let’s try to keep a balanced view.”

    Exactly, as I think serious Leavers do, but as I posted to Alec there is clear campaign by Remainers with vested interest, so all good UK economic news is ignored. Not that Alec accepts that view of course, which is fair enough, he is entitled to his views.

    AL URQA
    “If it says Pete B at the top of the post I always skip to the next one.”

    Not a very pleasant post, remember he has exactly the same right to post his views here as you do. More importantly you and he are equal in the sense that you both have one vote in elections and referenda (I assume you are both entitled to vote in the UK).

    PASSTHEROCKPLEASE

    Many thanks for your long and interesting post to me, much of which I agree with. As I said in my own post the Eurozone could be reformed to prevent it failing, I just don’t see the political will to do it and a number of Economists agree with me.

    Charles
    “describe their decision in terms of ‘sovereignty’”
    In my case that is absolutely correct, regaining sovereignty is main driver for me although there are many others including the economy, and a desire to break away before the break-up of the EU which I think is certain at some time in the future. At present we are a just vassal state of the EU with some voting rights. I want an end to that and happily for me it looks as though I am going to get that at last.

  18. SOMERJOHN
    Well, someone suggested I had been a bit brusque in my original comment, and I apologise to Pete B for that.

    Mea culpa for that. Unsurprisingly but clearly Pete B hadn’t been well served by the media regarding the four freedoms. OTOH, his posting questions here is a good thing in that he’s showing an open mind, and we should support that and provide factual information when we can.

    I read most of your posts and agree with most of them, BTW.

  19. @Pete B – “Alec
    There’s plenty of economic good news as well since Article 50 was triggered. e.g. record employment, lowest unemployment rate for many years, FTSE 100 and 250 well up, new jobs announced by big multinationals.”

    No, not really. The ‘good’ news is largely overcooked, in my view. The employment figures can’t really be viewed in isolation from the productivity and wage figures. Collectively these paint a picture of a pretty disastrously underperforming labour market, with efficiency way below our competitors and going backwards. While there was a significant social benefit in the immediate post crash aftermath from running an economy with lots of underemployed people in work not earning a great deal, ten years on what should have been a short term approach has become an entranched aspect of the UK economy.

    As for the employment announcements of some of the larger companies, yes, these are good in themselves, but overplayed by Brexit supporting media outlets. For example, while there have been a few good headlines from car manufactureres investing the odd hundred million in UK plants, few papers have reported the fact that the SMMT said that investment in the UK auto industry has fallen by a third since the Brexit vote, and alongside some of the small investments in the UK, many companies have announced huge investments in the EU27. This is particularly so for the burgeoning battery technology, where Daimler are building the biggest European battery production facility in Germany and Samsumg are setting up their European base in Hungary. The UK is being shunned by those who are investing in the next big thing, even if most are keeping existing plants running for now,

    This is part of the delusion of Brexit, where only the good news makes the headlines and everything else is ‘remainers trying to frighten voters’, to paraphrase @TOH. Things really are unravelling, at a modest but sustained pace, and one by one the tired canards of Brexiteers are falling by the wayside. [I recall once upon a time we had a poster here on UKPR who insisted that angry UK consudemrs would ensure we didn’t see any uptick in inflation after a 15% devaluation. That ship has now sailed].

    The only real question is whether sufficient numbers of voters will realise this before we commit the deed, and whether any such shifts in public opinion can be adequately reflected in parliament.

    All to play for, which is why some people are getting a bit twitchy. They are being asked the big questions, and all of a sudden they are realising they don’t have any answers.

  20. TONYBTG
    In a situation such as this, one is either an ‘Eeyore’ or a ‘Tigger’, if there is an early GE it opens up the POSSIBILITIES of what a Labour majority govt might be able to do.
    I am definitely a Tigger!

  21. @Charles – thankyou.

    I’ve been away a lot so am struggling to keep up, so don’t know if I’ve missed any other queries.

  22. ToH

    Whilst I don’t agree with your stance on the EU I fully understand your arguments and the consistency of them. You have always acknowledged there will be rocky times ahead in the aftermath of Brexit.

    One thing I do want to ask you though is about your certainty surrounding a full blown Brexit. Why are you so certain this will happen? Are you not just a little worried that Tory Remainers will scupper this from happening and that in the end there will be some kind of compromise which to many will be seen as a soft Brexit….I know you do not acknowledge such a term but completely cutting ourselves off from the EU seems unlikely given the maths in Parliament

  23. MIKE PEARCE

    Many thanks. I am reasonably certain that a full Brexit will happen as the government at least understand that we are either in or out of the EU. Anything less means we are still in the EU in some way.

    I am an optimist, i could be wrong but I don’t think that is likely.

  24. new thread

  25. Re Pete B: “I have no problem with people not knowing stuff.”
    @somerjohn July 16th, 2017 at 10:32 am

    It is not his ignorance I dislike, it is his attitude to other people. I simply skip his posts and the problem goes away.

    Otherwise there is so much quality input on this site, which is why I keep reading the rest.

    Anyway, that’s what I do, and it works for me.

  26. “AL URQA
    “If it says Pete B at the top of the post I always skip to the next one.”

    Not a very pleasant post, remember he has exactly the same right to post his views here as you do.”
    @The Other Howard July 16th, 2017 at 11:07 am

    That is your view, and you are of course entitled to it. I have found several posts of Pete B highly offensive, and I choose to deal with it by not reading any more of his contributions. Others have responded to these; I have chosen not to offer replies.

    Everyone has a right to post — and everyone has a right to ignore. I choose to exercise my right to ignore. There is much that is wonderful on this site, which is why I keep coming back, and I lurk more than I post which is why, BTW I am Al Urqa-r. :-)

    Please keep reading his posts if you wish. But I will not.

  27. AL URQA

    Fair enough.

  28. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    I suppose it depend on what you mean by fail. as I pointed out to Colin on ONS figures state that whilst london and the south east have been growing strongly and are well above it 2007 GDP baseline other regions are not doing so well and have not breached the losses of 2008. One could argue there is a need for reform of th sterling zone and it will fail if there is not that level of reform.

    My view is that the requirement of fiscal transfers may happen and it would definitely benefit the Southern Countries if there are much more direct fiscal transfers but that if there is not it would not make the eurozone fail. It would heighten inequality it would make the risk of greece not recovering quickly and it may hurt reforms that the individual countries have to make to improve themselves but I cannot see any of these countries deciding to go back to their old currency. Which is why I feel that the whole EZ imploding is rather overblown. For example if greece were forced out of the EYU what difference will it make to the Euro.

    In terms of brexit, As a remainer my one positive about leaving is that we will no longer be able to blame the EU for anything (well that is the hope) most of the problems that ails the UK has nothing to do with the EU and often when we have blames the EU for such thing from Fishing quota to whatever the regualtions of bananas that peopel seem to be worried about. WE find that government policy (our government sold quotas to the highest bidders and we will have similar rules on quality of fruit ) was basically mostly to blame or thr regulations are normal part of trade and standards

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