ICM have resumed polling for the Guardian. Topline figures for their first post-election poll are CON 41%(-3), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 3%(+1) – changes are from the election result.

In terms of methodology, ICM have dropped the turnout model that produced such large, but ultimately incorrect, Tory leads as well as their political interest weighting. This isn’t going all the way back to their 2015 methodology (ICM also made a change to how they reallocated don’t knows who refused to give a past vote and, of course, switched from telephone to online), but it’s a long way in that direction.


310 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 41, LAB 43, LDEM 7, UKIP 3”

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  1. I agree with Reggieside.

    It’s absurd to suggest that any Labour MP would jump to the Lib Dems, even if they wanted to. For one, a rising LD vote (if it happens) will occur largely in Tory seats. That’s generally been the case, and it explains why the collapse of the Lib Dems in 2015 coincided with the Tories winning a majority in 2015, despite not winning one in 2010 despite a similar lead over Labour.

    But most importantly, Labour are doing better than they have for more than a decade electorally. If they hadn’t defected pre GE2017 (remember when the LDs briefly polled over 10% on average?), it makes no sense at all to defect now. Vince Cable is not exceptionally popular, and as a leading player in the coalition Government, he’s unlikely to attract Labour voters. But this remains to be seen.

    Labour does have a problem with infighting but frankly Labour MPs know only too well the problems of splitting (see 1983). It may have happened had May got her supermajority. But under the current conditions, it’s pretty damn unlikely.

    Fantasy land indeed.

  2. Barbazenzero: “The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 is short enough to quote in full: […] That the act does not mention parliament’s desire to leave the EU seems pretty non-controversial to me.”

    It is interesting. As I read it, the Act empowers the PM, but does not authorize or mandate. ie it is at the PM’s discretion.

    So it is done now. Yes, there is a window to argue that it should have been explicitly authorized or mandated, but after the furore with Gina Miller, I think that it is quite plain what the Will of Parliament was, so any case will revolve on the form rather than the substance of the Act, which could be addressed in a day in Parliament.

    More interesting would have been for Miller to have let the PM send the Article 50 letter without the Act and then argue the case she originally put.

  3. “deploying the value to gain foreign assets”

    Which in our case is Sterling saved – netted out.

    Whether they get ‘value’ from their assets is then a matter for the UK government to decide in its tax policies.

    The key point is that the asset and the income are in Sterling, and ultimately you can only spend Sterling here.

    So the Chinese send us stuff in return for savings that eventually they or somebody else has to spend here.

  4. ANALYST

    Spot on. There is some wishful thinking from some posters on here. Labour are very much back in the game

  5. Neil Wilson

    But we would be totally stuffed with hard money rather than the fiat money we have today. How much credence to you give to the theories that the Chinese are stockpiling gold in preparation for a return to the gold standard?

  6. CR – Personally I am comfortable with 2/3rds as long as the affiliates can all meet within the timeframe properly (8 weeks I think of the MP telling the local party officers they wish to re-stand).

  7. MONOCHROME OCTOBER @ BZ
    I think that it is quite plain what the Will of Parliament was, so any case will revolve on the form rather than the substance of the Act, which could be addressed in a day in Parliament.

    In the last Westminster parliament, had anyone noticed the problem, I agree that a few days [to get both HoC & HoL approval] would have been straightforward. Whether it would be so easy given the current numbers in the HoC and the lack of a mandate to silence the HoL is another matter, and perhaps one which HMG does not wish too much attention to be given.

    Whatever happens, it is yet another demonstration to the world of the ramshackle nature of what Bagehot rightly called the English Constitution.

  8. This:

    “Today, the bulk of Labour’s new members don’t see the new politics as left or right, they see it as a matter of right or wrong.”

    in support [I think…] of mandatory re-selection makes me think of Shakespeare’s “there’s the rub”.

    To an extent most of us will feel we are “right” in our views. But the majority of us will also allow for the possibility that it’s just possible that we’re not but, in any case, allow for the possibility of differing views.

    I know that, in music for example, having my ideas for interpretation questioned or challenged can be very instructive and often helpful.

  9. I heard Vince Cable being interviewed with others yesterday by Emma Barnett and he sounded more than a bit conciliatory towards the government, even on the touchy subject of the future direction of student fees. It even makes me wonder if there might be a different approach once he takes over as leader, he knows TM well and he doesn’t like Corbyn.

  10. Roger Mexico,
    “I’m not saying that Brexit is unimportant for Labour supporters or voters under 45/50, just that it is not the overwhelming, vote-determining topic that it is for Conservative and older voters. Labour voters see it as one (interlocked) issue among many that determine their vote.”

    I think this one will be a topic for future polls. But on the basis of what I have seen currently, I think you are half right. I agree, it appears to be more of an issue for the conservatives, but I also think there is merit in the argument that the yougov question was flawed and could have caused labour voters to interpret the issues question as one about whether they supported leaving the EU. I think that if there had been no Brexit but an election, both labour and conservative would have scored fewer votes, and the other parties done better. Conservatives I think would have won because of the disunity in labour. Brexit saved Corbyn and labour, because of the remain voters.

    The ashcroft poll is open to the same issues about not properly asking people if they voted in order to stop Brexit. Q8 asks why they chose a particluar party and one offered reason from multiple choice is that they trusted them best to negotiate leaving, but that isnt quite the same. I can well see that to a remainer, who does the negotiating is not the problem.

    Conservatives did score highly that they trusted their party to negotiate the best deal on Brexit, but curiously the conservatives score rather badly in other questions about whether their voters trust the party.

    Q9 seems to ask the same question again slightly differently, with similar results, but again it does not explicitly explain that respondents should choose the Brexit option if they voted in order to stop Brexit. Indeed, it rather suggests they should not because it lists together several leave alternatives but does not mention remaining.

  11. “I think this one will be a topic for future polls.”

    ———-

    Hopefully. Clearly we need some polling on whether Corbynites think he’s pro-Brexit, and if they do, have they decided Brexit is inevitable and hence Corbyn’s position on Brexit isn’t that important and other Corbynish things assume greater importance.

    It’s possibly worth bearing in mind that whatever happens Corbyn has said he’d prioritise jobs etc. in any Brexit settlement which might be encouraging to Corbynites. We need to know what precisely peeps are expecting really.

  12. CARFREW

    Indeed. Corbyn and Labour are also in general not talking in hostile terms towards the EU. The tone from senior Tories has been very different. Corbyn and Labour need to be patient and let the Tories own Brexit.

  13. Carfrew

    “whether Corbynites think he’s pro-Brexit, and if they do, have they decided Brexit ”

    Judging from my crucifixion on social media, he is an ardent pro Remain who knows the best Brexit (I wish it was a joke).

  14. Mike Pearce

    “Corbyn and Labour need to be patient and let the Tories own Brexit.”

    If (contrary to what the polls say people anticipate) the eventual Brexit deal is hugely successful, then the Tories/DUP will have enough political credit to keep them on power for many years – in which case, it doesn’t matter what other parties say at the moment.

    On the other hand, if it turns out a mess then Labour’s mixed messaging won’t disadvantage them in E&W – though the Lib Dems might gain a bit.

    If the Brexit effect on the Scottish economy is good, SCon will benefit electorally while, if it has a negative effect, then SNP/SGP (with their positivity for EU/Single Market) would be the likely gainers – as would the indy movement.

    In Northern Ireland, it seems possible that, in the Unionist community, a successful Brexit for the island of Ireland would benefit the DUP, while a negative effect would advantage UUP/Alliance.

    Many political careers (as well as the unimportant matters of the economic and social consequences) will depend on how the Brexit thing turns out.

  15. I didn’t think I would be saying this, but Trump’s speech today was pretty impressive. Amazing reception he got in Poland.

  16. YG/Times Westminster poll

    Lab 46% : Con 38% : LD 6% : Oth 9%

    via Sam Coates

  17. Yougov poll gives Labour 8 point lead:

    Lab 46
    Con 38
    LD 6
    Other 9

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/883068291819941888

  18. YouGov/Times:

    CON 38 (-6)
    LAB 46 (+5)
    LD 6 (-2)
    UKIP 4 (+2)
    OTH 7 (+1)

    Changes vs election result excluding NI
    5th-6th July

  19. Rich
    The crowd were bussed in from outwith Warsaw apparently, so poss his friendly reception was not entirely genuine.

  20. YG/Times

    Also UKIP 4% : SNP/PC 4%

  21. OLDNAT

    The problem for the Tories is what does a successful Brexit look like? The obsessive right wingers want a hard Brexit which will certainly be economically damaging in the short term making it very difficult for them to win an election between 2019 and 2022.
    Any soft Brexit may be much less painful economically but cause huge ructions amongst their right wingers.

  22. Get in !
    Looking forward to seeing the detail on this latest Yougov.

  23. Labour up to 46%. Wow. Folk would have been mocked suggesting they would be 8 points clear by early July when the election was called.

  24. Direction of travel clear.

  25. Yougov also has more info on state of economy, Brexit:

    Remain 46% (+2)
    Leave 42% (-1)
    WNV 6%
    DK 7%

    Perceptions, expectations for economy not good.

    Tables here; https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gd8a4jt3m3/Eurotrack_June17_1W.pdf

  26. Well that poll is mildly OMG I suppose. And Merkel and Macron have overall favourable ratings, in icntrast to Theresa…

  27. contrast

  28. Carfew – all polls seem consistent with a Lab lead of 2-4% perhaps edging more towards the 4%. In one sense meaningless as over a year to a GE and probably much longer, as late as 2022 potentially if unlikely; but the longer Labour have leads one would expect the more robust it would be?

  29. That poll only just gives labour a majority, one seat more than the present ConDup govt

  30. I think what we can all say for absolutely definitely certain is that the 46% is the absolute best maximum highest possible number that Corbyn’s Labour could possibly ever max out at. Agreed? ;-)

  31. RACHEL

    Not necessarily. Labour could do very well in Scotland and win more seats and end up with a small majority.

  32. I think in fact that would give Labour a comfortable majority, depending on the spread – might clean up in Scotland for instance.

  33. YouGov methodical changes:

    Methodology note: Our political polls are now weighted to the 2017 election result. We have also returned to our usual practice between elections of removing respondents who select don’t know to the voting intention question from the headline figure rather than re-allocating them, a method that closely tracked the results of our MRP model during the election campaign. UKIP were overstated in our final results and, given their level of support at the election we have returned to our pre-2015 practice of not including UKIP in the main prompt and grouping them with “other parties”. As ever, YouGov keep our methodology under constant review and will announce further changes if we make them.

  34. Of course, one new poll in the methodology means regional sub sample a bit iffy, but….

    London

    Lab 27%
    Con 29%

    Rest of South

    Con 49%
    Lab 34%

    Midlands/Wales

    Lab 44%
    Con 42%

    North

    Lab 60%
    Con 32%

    Most interestingly Scotland…

    Lab 36%
    SNP 34%
    Con 25%

    ————————————-

    Once there are enough polls in new methodology, I will resurrect and update my model.

  35. Correction

    Of course, one new poll in the methodology means regional sub sample a bit iffy, but….

    London

    Lab 57%
    Con 29%

    Rest of South

    Con 49%
    Lab 34%

    Midlands/Wales

    Lab 44%
    Con 42%

    North

    Lab 60%
    Con 32%

    Most interestingly Scotland…

    Lab 36%
    SNP 34%
    Con 25%

    ————————————-

    Once there are enough polls in new methodology, I will resurrect and update my model.

  36. @JIM JAM

    “Carfrew – all polls seem consistent with a Lab lead of 2-4% perhaps edging more towards the 4%. In one sense meaningless as over a year to a GE and probably much longer, as late as 2022 potentially if unlikely; but the longer Labour have leads one would expect the more robust it would be?”

    —————

    Well ok then, it’s just that OMGASTORINOMGAAR, or “OMG Actually Scratch That On Reflection it’s Not OMG At All Really” is a bit unwieldy, but when in Rome etc.

  37. nickp

    “I think in fact that would give Labour a comfortable majority, depending on the spread – might clean up in Scotland for instance.”

    They could “clean up in Scotland” – but so could the SNP, SCon, SLD, SGP, RISE ….

    Probably best to wait for polls of the Scottish polity before speculating on that.

  38. Actually I think the polls tell us Labour are both ahead, and the lead is getting bigger. Two sub 40% polls for Con now.

  39. Old Nat
    Scottish crossbreak looks interesting though.

  40. oldnat

    oh yes. As we have seen nearly everywhere, just about anything could happen – with the exception of whatever Turk and Rich are putting their cash on at the bookies.

  41. – I’d like to believe (and well aware this could be wishful thinking – the Nats over the border only borrowed the red vote until they could find a left winger to vote for.

  42. @LASZLO

    “Judging from my crucifixion on social media, he is an ardent pro Remain who knows the best Brexit (I wish it was a joke).”

    ————

    Well I know a few who seem rather resigned to Brexit, but it’s not like it’s a representative sample or anything. But this is in the physical world, in coffee shops and stuff, as opposed to social media.

    P.s. Thanks ever so for the info. on Kaldor etc. which sent me on a bit of a journey, investigating the entropy in social sciences thing. In particular I discovered that while as you say, stats from the hard sciences were used to inform social science, originally Boltzmann got his ideas about statistical mechanics from Darwin’s analyses of populations. Basically the idea of treating gasses etc. as populations.

    Then later, these scientists applied the idea of negentropy to living things. Notably peeps like Szilard, the guy who came up with the idea of the chain reaction. You prolly know all this stuff but it was news to me. I love these cross-pollinations.

    (The idea of life exporting entropy particularly chimed. Would explain a lot of things, if peeps have been exporting their entropy onto me all this time).

  43. It’s possible that modding is a form of exporting entropy…

  44. Regarding the Yougov poll tables:

    Not that it’s anything close to statistically significant, but the Scotland subsample (167 respondents; weighted down to 143) has Lab on 36 (+9), Tories on 25 (-4), SNP on 31 (-6), LD 5 (-2). Not particularly unrealistic given the overall VI. Putting these Scottish results in to electoral calculus with the rest of the GB figures, gives a solid Labour majority of 44.

    Most of the swing in the polls is not CON-LAB, however. Only 3% of 2017 Tory voters would now vote Labour; and 1% for the opposite. That’s a net 1 point CON-LAB swing.

    The 50-64 age group across GB is interesting – has Labour 3 points ahead with this group. But bizarrely, no improvement at all with the 65+; still at 66-19 to the Tories. Again it’s just a crossbreak, though. Significant numbers of the 50-64 and 65+ seem to be floating back to UKIP – perhaps people who aren’t natural Tory voters lending the Tories their vote this time to give May her mandate. This explains a significant amount of the Tories loss of voters; 4% of 2017 tory voters – which loses them about 2 points in VI.

    But probably the biggest thing driving the bigger CON-LAB gap is ‘don’t knows’. 16% of 2017 tory voters are DK; only 8% of 2017 labour. Labour retain 86% of their 2017 voters; Tories only 76% which a month on is pretty shocking.

    Just to highlight the point I made earlier about Tory performance affecting LD performance far more than Lab; despite this poll putting LDs on 6 (i.e. down 2), given the fall in Tory VI, this actually means that LDs net gain 2 seats to 14 – despite the awful vote share. This merely serves to highlight why, particularly if the LDs believe that Lab will have the advantage going into the next election, they may be wise to pursue Tory voters, not Labour ones.

    Vince Cable’s interview earlier suggests this may be the strategy he’s planning to take. To successfully bring back voters from the Tories to start winning again in e.g. the SW, they need to appeal to Brexiteers. If these (primarily older) brexit-voting ex-LD-now-Tory voters are broadly happy with the Tory approach to Brexit, Cable is going to have to provide an olive branch. Indeed the remain/leave VI split is shocking for the LDs: they get 12% of remainers; 1% of leavers. I doubt it’s really that bad but given how many seats in the LDs former heartlands voted strongly for Brexit, they really need to address this situation asap. It’s really no wonder why the Farron approach failed.

  45. NickP

    Left winger?

    I think this is a pretty good description of Corbyn from a book from 1848. You can’t say that it doesn’t fit.

    “A part of the bourgeoisie is desirous of redressing social grievances in order to secure the continued existence of bourgeois society.To this section belong economists, philanthropists, humanitarians, improvers of the condition of the working class, organisers of charity, members of societies for the prevention of cruelty to animals, temperance fanatics, hole-and-corner reformers of every imaginable kind … Free trade: for the benefit of the working class. Protective duties: for the benefit of the working class. Prison Reform: for the benefit of the working class. This is the last word and the only seriously meant word of bourgeois socialism. It is summed up in the phrase: the bourgeois is a bourgeois — for the benefit of the working class.”

  46. Carfrew

    Schrödinger’s essay on life using the concept of entropy is fascinating, and actually created a basis of several methodologies in micro biology.

    However, I think we are really getting off, although I still think that the second law of thermodynamics is valid for polling as it is a closed system. :-)

  47. Laszlo

    That about sums up Corbyn, perhaps a touch more radical. I’m ok with that. Most important for me is full democratisation of the labour party and hopefully the conservative party as well

  48. Carfrew

    “originally Boltzmann got his ideas about statistical mechanics from Darwin’s analyses of populations.”

    I didn’t know this. Thanks.

    And Darwin got some of his stuff from Malthus, by the way, at a conceptual level.

  49. New thread

  50. Tables for this poll are actually here:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pk6fh24cmh/TimesResults_170706_VotingIntention_W.pdf

    (the ones linked above are to a different though also interesting Eurotracker poll).

    There’s no additional questions other than VI.

    The accompanying article:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/07/06/voting-intention-conservatives-38-labour-46-5-6-ju/

    doesn’t say much apart from the note on methodology (which I don’t think is accurate anyway)

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