ICM have resumed polling for the Guardian. Topline figures for their first post-election poll are CON 41%(-3), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 3%(+1) – changes are from the election result.

In terms of methodology, ICM have dropped the turnout model that produced such large, but ultimately incorrect, Tory leads as well as their political interest weighting. This isn’t going all the way back to their 2015 methodology (ICM also made a change to how they reallocated don’t knows who refused to give a past vote and, of course, switched from telephone to online), but it’s a long way in that direction.


310 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 41, LAB 43, LDEM 7, UKIP 3”

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  1. maybe they just like white stripes Rachael?

  2. TOH (to Alec): “it’s all so boring, as we both have clear and totally opposed views, whats worth discussing?”

    Well, I for one am intrigued to know how you see the golden future of Brexitland panning out. It’s all very well to repeat sublime confidence but, more in hope than expectation, people do ask you to put some flesh on those bare bones.

    As a ‘for instance’, we hear that the Treasury is challenging Liam Fox’s ministry to explain which trade deals are going to replace lost EU trade, and put numbers on that.

    That’s the sort of thing on which people would like to see you justify your confidence, rather than just repeating it. That would make the discussion genuinely interesting (as will Fox’s response, if it ever sees the light of day). I guess you’re bored with being asked, and too busy with the allotments to reply substantively

  3. SSSIMON

    Glad to see you gave me Bronze, though I feel somewhat undeserving having completely forgotten about PC.

  4. Valarie.

    Rather than selling off allotments perhaps they could be auctioned out and the franchise to operate them given to the highest bidder.

    Bringing in the private sector to shake up inefficient land use seem to me in line with modern right wing economics.

  5. Redrich

    “can someone please mention the state of British universities”

    Yes, many of them started voluntary redundancy schemes (not very generous ones) with a threat of compulsory ones.

    There hasn’t been any justification for this (apart from slashing student numbers), and it is done in a classic bureaucratic way, allocating the expected headcount reductions to lower level managers). There is no thought given to the service, only to the headcount.

  6. Cambridgerachel

    Let’s hope it is a mood maybe people will cheer up later and forget all about it.

  7. Somerjohn

    ” I guess you’re bored with being asked, and too busy with the allotments to reply substantively”

    Correct on both counts. We can review the results of brexit in 2030 assuming we are both here. :-)

  8. JIMJAM

    “Bringing in the private sector to shake up inefficient land use seem to me in line with modern right wing economics.”

    Bring it on i am sure i could get it for a song. No chance though as I posted to Valerie.

  9. I believe Corbyn to be ambivalent towards the EU rather than hostile. He is fortunate to have a credible operator in Keir Starmer on his side. In my view May made a mistake saying no deal would be better than a bad deal. That gives Corbyn some flexibility in Brexit manoeuvres.

    At some stage there will be a Brexit crunch for Tory Remainers. They have the power to cause huge problems for May and Davis.

  10. TOH
    When was the land last independently valued?

  11. For @bantams information, Scotland’s economy grew by 0.8% in Q1 2017 ( c.f. 0.2% for UK). No doubt he or she will be commenting soon on the Scottsh Government’s success!

  12. @Laszlo

    “Kaldor criticised this perception of government policies both in academic papers and public speeches showing that the entropy (he doesn’t call it as such, more as inertia) is the declining competitiveness of the British economy.”

    ————-

    Oh, so you’re an “entropy pessimist” then? Apparently Kaldor had a “Theory of Storage”…

  13. Well he “extended” it anyways…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_storage

  14. “After being away from the site for a couple of weeks (recovering from all the excitement as awell as being busy with work) its good to see all the old favs – Keynesian ADM, Socialism and Brexit (can someone please mention the state of British universities).”

    ————

    Well Keynes only tends to crop up briefly when newer peeps bring it up. Regulars tend not to mention it so much. Brexit of course is a live, unfolding nirvana/horrorshow/bemusement delete as applicable.

  15. Good to see that the EU and Japan have agreed in principle a free trade deal. Could be a bit tricky for post-Brexit UK, though, if we crash out on WTO terms. The effect would be that Toyotas, Hondas and Nissans built in the UK would face import duties into the EU, while the same models built in Japan would get in duty-free. Hey-ho, never mind, the lads in Sunderland can always move to Lincolnshire and fill those strawberry-picking jobs.

  16. Carfrew

    Thanks for the Kaldor reference. I was completely ignorant about it. Interesting things these Keynesians invented :-)

    He was very good in public speech (apart from his Hungarian accent). His exchange with Friedman in the Lloyds Bank Review (Kaldor wrote the first article, Friedman responded, and Kaldor responded to the reaponse) is one exchange among academics that doesn’t happen anymore.

  17. @Redrich,

    “What I have been pondering over the past couple of weeks is the extent to which Labour’s vote share was the culmination of a perfect storm (which may be unlikely to re-occur) or driven by a genuine shift towards a different political consensus. Jury still seems to be out on this.”

    Hard to know, really. May’s poor performance was of course very poor which helped Corbyn.

    But more broadly, I think it’s hard to deny that there’s been a strong shift away from austerity. The mood music very much feels like the anti-austerity camp is winning people over. Why else would the Tories be infighting over such bread and butter issues such as the public sector pay cap, schools funding, tuition fees etc. Their stances on these issues are really the core of the party’s platform and members of the cabinet are openly calling them into question. I’d say this is quite a big deal.

    Then you have the British attitudes survey which also showed a significant shift towards anti-austerity views. This however was carried out about a year ago – I suspect things have moved significantly further in this direction since then.

    My personal view is Brexit problematised austerity for the Tories. The arguments that Brexiteers used were, ironically, questions really about social justice. It was of course chiefly about immigration – but they argued it was bad because of its impact on public services and wages for the working class. Viewed from this perspective, Brexit was fundamentally not economically right-wing, but left-wing. In my view it’s deeply ironic that ‘left-wingers’ are now promoting ‘free trade’ (single market), while Brexiteers (generally seen as ‘right-wing’) are arguing for greater state control of labour markets and sovereignty over trade.

    I’d argue that things will likely continue moving in this anti-austerity direction, and that May made a huge blunder going back to Cameron and Osborne’s stances on this issue today in PMQs. People don’t care about the deficit anymore; meanwhile she’s essentially telling people that to get rid of austerity, voters need to get rid of the Tories.

    So, my own observation would be that this is a genuine shift, but Labour were nonetheless helped by May’s dreadful campaign. It’s not that people have fallen in love with Corbyn, though. More like, they’re sick of austerity. If the Tories want to win next time they need to not just be the party that speaks tough on the economy and can make cuts – they also need to be the party that can show they are also willing to invest in public services in the good times. People will only put up with pain for so long – there has to be an end point. And if the economy is not yet in good shape by the next election? Then probably voters will see this as their fault (can only blame the party opposite for so many years) and have lost their patience with them anyway.

  18. Mark,
    “For me, while the Brexit issue is important, like (I’m sure) many other Corbyn supporters/voters, my vote was for saving a publicly owned and publicly funded NHS”

    I keep posting it, the most recent surveys still say that labour supporters are massively remainers, and conservatives supporters are 2:1 leavers. This has changed since this was first studied, when the parties started much more even with leave/remain support. It is not a random fluctuation but a clear trend, either that labour supporters have been converted to Remain, or remainers have changed their vote to labour. And ditto for leave and the conservatives.

    Given the arguments on here that labour are not really remainers, its hard to see how they could have converted their own supporters to remain. So one must conclude that remainers have flocked to the labour banner and see it as standing for remain. The survey on the last thread had labour 4:1 remain, which is way huge. Conservatives seem to have gone through a phase of picking up remain support, but this has dropped back again in recent polls.

    However, I think there is evidence that many leavers are more committed to their cause than remainers are to theirs. Remainers seems to be people who do not consider there are pressing reasons to leave, but recognise the economic benefits of remaining. Arguably most remainers and perhaps half leavers are making an economic decision about brexit, whereas half leavers are making a political decision (sovereignty, immigration, etc)

  19. Danny

    “I think there is evidence that many leavers are more committed to their cause than remainers are to theirs”

    I agree pretty much with everything you’ve written here, but is there actually evidence about the strength of feeling of core leavers/ remainers? I’m a core remainer and so are most of my friends. i’d say they were pretty passionate, even if they did mostly vote labour. Do you know of any polls on this?

  20. @somerjohn

    That could make the tems of the letter of comfort to Nissan even more interesting!

  21. If Remain is not possible then the softest possible leave would be preferable to most remainers (1)

    In most of the UK a Labour vote was the best home for such voters if this is their key issue. No sign of this changing between the big 2 and LDs still irrelevant.

    (1) there will be a few but not many who say half in half out is no good so if we are out then better a hard brexit)

  22. @ Danny and PatrickBrian

    “I’m a core remainer and so are most of my friends. I’d say they were pretty passionate”

    Agree that there are (or were) many passionate remainers, but one year of being beaten over the head with “Will of the People” and “The British people have spoken” [1] and the huge 4% margin of the referendum that must be respected, I suspect many have given up hope. I know I have. So Brexit will happen, might as well worry about other policies and vote on that basis.

    [1] If anyone hasn’t seen it, I loved Richard Dawkin’s take on this, see:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaySOifpusg

    Not that I agree with everything he says by any means, but just that he’s his usual completely bonkers unapologetic self.

  23. OLDNAT

    Welcome back. I wondered where you were.

    Thank you for your perspective. I suppose it is based on some thinking prompted by the startling election results.

    I am not sure about tribalism having declined. But it is certainly a coherent analysis. And I agree that people seem to have short memories. Which may be something to remember when wondering where this Brexit road will eventually take us.

  24. @TOH – “I think it’s beyond sense to blame much of the current UK economic woes on Brexit.

    So we have the usual disagreement. It’s why I’m not bothering to post much at the moment, it’s all so boring, as we both have clear and totally opposed views, whats worth discussing?”

    To be perfectly honest, I find that a really weird post, coming from you.

    You and I have been in long term, consistent agreement that Brexit is going to hurt, with only the depth, longevity, and to a lesser extend the timescale of the hurt at issue between us. Indeed, you have many times previously in recent weeks admited that the anticipated Brexit impact is starting to kick in.

    Yet now the bad news is coming in thick and fast, you apparently deny what you have already accepted as happening, and in the above post appear to deny any Brexit impacts at all. And on top of that, you retreat to your tired old defence of feigned boredom.

  25. @Valerie/TOH

    Allotments are hot politics here in WPSRL.

    http://www.brentfordtw8.com/default.asp?section=info&page=plparkroad004.htm

  26. @ALEC

    I was thinking that TOH was seeing Brexit as short pants whilst I saw it as long pants. Now apparently he sees no pants at all

  27. @ Hireton

    Well done on good growth figures, record sales of haggis and whisky must have contributed towards it. :)

    Pasty sales must be slow here in Cornwall.

  28. @ Alec I hope you do not decrease and hopefully increase your rate of posting as you (along, to be fairm with others on this site) are my main source of insight into politics and their ramfiications. A propopos of which what would you say were the main bits of Brexit bad news that have been flooding in of late and are there any mitigating factors?.

    I am off to bed and then away for three days but will acknowledge any reply later tas I wish to do with voice of reason who responded very helpully to me on a question about nationalisation and the EU but who since has not been around at a time when I could thank her/him

  29. Prof Howard

    “I am not sure about tribalism having declined.”

    I was careful to refer to GB, not UK, in my comment. :-)

  30. Roger mexico,
    “If they had been hard-line either way it might have put some people off, but most Labour voters say they voted for them for other reasons.”

    Sometimes voters do not know their own minds. It is not statistically possible that most of the remainers randomly supported labour, while most of the leavers supported Conservatives. So there must be an explanation why there is a connection between the respective beliefs.

    Looking at the survey you quote, you argue a mere 35% of labour indicated Brexit was important. But this made it the second highest scoring issue, after health on 51%. The next highest were on 23%, the economy, social care and education. So only a third of people listed it, but still it was the second biggest reason. By contrast, conservatives placed brexit as their top choice on 72%, immigration and assylum on 42%, the economy on 35%. Plainly conservatives are far more fixated on brexit than labour. And their second choice perhaps implies why, because they are worried about immigration. But the economy came third too.

    Previous statistics after the referendum indicated that the greater proportion of leavers believed it would benefit the economy or cause no harm, but a minority believed it would harm the economy. A vote because of the economy might therefore also be a brexit related reason, believing it would benefit. Whereas others presumably did not vote to leave because it would harm the economy, but despite it and because they thought other issues more important.

    I would suggest there is a pattern, that leavers have a specific strong objection to the EU, or group of objections. Whereas remainers see no reason to want to leave, but do see it as economically harmful and therefore a bad thing. Labour is a group who believe this money would be better spent on health, social care and education and not wasted on brexit. They might have health spending as their goal, but the way to get it is through stopping brexit.

  31. @Laszlo

    “Thanks for the Kaldor reference. I was completely ignorant about it. Interesting things these Keynesians invented :-)”

    ———-

    Well thank you in turn for getting me reading up on Kaldor, which given the entropy angle led to…

    Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, hence entropy pessimism.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Georgescu-Roegen

    “In the history of economic thought, Georgescu-Roegen was the first economist of some standing to theorise on the premise that all of Earth’s mineral resources will eventually be exhausted at some point.[8]:164f[9]:160–171 In his magnum opus, Georgescu-Roegen argues that economic scarcity is rooted in physical reality; that all natural resources are irreversibly degraded when put to use in economic activity; that the carrying capacity of Earth — that is, Earth’s capacity to sustain human populations and consumption levels — is bound to decrease sometime in the future as Earth’s finite stock of mineral resources is presently being extracted and put to use; and consequently, that the world economy as a whole is heading towards an inevitable future collapse, leading to the demise of human civilisation itself.[13] Due to the radical pessimism inherent in his work, based on the physical concept of entropy, the theoretical position of Georgescu-Roegen and his followers was later termed ‘entropy pessimism’.[14]:116

    As he brought natural resource flows into economic modelling and analysis, Georgescu-Roegen’s work was seminal in establishing ecological economics as an independent academic subdiscipline in economics in the 1980s.[15]:149[16]:65–68[17]:422[18]:302f In addition, the degrowth movement that formed in France and Italy in the early 2000s recognises Georgescu-Roegen as the main intellectual figure influencing the movement.[19]:548f[20]:1742[21]:xi Taken together, by the 2010s Georgescu-Roegen has educated, influenced and inspired at least three generations of people, including his own contemporary economists, younger ecological economists, still younger degrowth organisers and activists, and others around the world.

    Through the 1980s, Georgescu-Roegen’s work was popularised and promoted by trendspotter and political advisor Jeremy Rifkin, who authored the controversial and widely publicised book entitled Entropy: A New World View.[22]”

    (Thought I’d post a bit for benefit of Greens. Question is, does entropy apply to polling?)

  32. Bantams @ Hireton

    To prevent us from becoming too enthusiastic about a predicted recession which didn’t occur, BBC Scotland News helpfully broadcast that “In the last quarter the Scottish economy grew by ONLY 0.8%” :-)

    “It has never been hard to tell the difference between a Scots Unionist with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.” (PG Wodehouse)

    https://news.gov.scot/news/scottish-economy-grows-0-8#.WVykRAtXCBw.twitter

  33. Danny

    ” Plainly conservatives are far more fixated on brexit than labour.”

    While I recognise the shorthand, wouldn’t that have been better phrased as “those who voted Conservative in 2017 are far more fixated on Brexit”?

    In the current febrile atmosphere of politics, it would seem unwise to assume that what might be a short-term reason for voting for a particular party makes them an adherent of that particular grouping.

    If they vote otherwise (or not at all) at a future election, then attaching a tribal label to them would be inappropriate.

  34. @Roger

    “Actually the evidence is pretty clear that supporting Remain had very little to do with Labour’s result in June, except perhaps in the negative sense”

    I’d like to respectfully disagree.

    From the Yougov poll you linked to – 35% of Labour voters had Brexit as important in their vote, the second highest issue for them

    And 47% of remain voters had it as an important issue – the most important issue for remain voters.

    The Lib Dems didn’t pick up that many voters, so many of those remain voters must be in that 35% for Labour?

    I think just like the Tories picked up some UKIP supporters who would not normally vote Conservative, Labour picked up some remain voters, who would not normally vote Labour.

    We have seen that the voters that the Tories picked up are already leaving for ‘don’t know’ and UKIP in the post election polls.

    I think we can expect the same thing to the Labour remain voters who are not naturally Labour once Brexit is a done deal. But it is interesting that they did not immediately peel off into unknowns post election like we saw with the Tories.

    I don’t think they will go to the Lib Dems – they are too small now, so won’t get any coverage in the next election.

    Other than that will just have to wait for events to move them. I agree with SSimon that Corbyn is a leaver and is going to disappoint those remain voters – but as we saw with the Labour manifesto, the party is more than the views of Corbyn, so they may help moderate that to some extent.

    I think the much derided Chuka Umunna is helping keep those remainers on board for now.

    The other evidence that Brexit was a key reason for the Labour surge can be clearly seen by the Labour swing vs remain vote in each seat in the Yougov MRP

    https://twitter.com/jblumenau/status/874346210823462913

  35. Carfrew

    Thanks for the pessimist – I will read up on this.

    In the meantime, while Kaldor called it inertia, when it should have been entropy, in the last 15 years or so a group of economists and social scientists have tried to use this guy’s work in social science. There is some promising bits, but unfortunately quite a bit of his work is misinterpreted in social science. Still the concept of using negative entropy as a constructive force is interesting, and promising (but most academics lost interest in complicated systems in social science – well, the Great Recession destroyed it).

    Still, if you like science, his work is quite accessible.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilya_Prigogine

  36. oldnat,
    “In the current febrile atmosphere of politics, it would seem unwise to assume that what might be a short-term reason for voting for a particular party makes them an adherent of that particular grouping.”

    Somewhere amongst all this today I read something arguing that people are far more interested in issue than parties. I somewhere read statistics that most lab or con voters from 2015 voted the same this time. But if more people voted for these parties, then those others came from elsewhere and might go back.

    Yes, I do see a bind for conservatives that they might now command a large proportion of voters who wish Brexit carried out, but having done so would lose this group, plus traditional core voters alienated by Brexit. So having carried it out, they could find themselves unelectable because they carried it out.

  37. Danny

    “Yes, I do see a bind for conservatives that they might now command a large proportion of voters who wish Brexit carried out, but having done so would lose this group, plus traditional core voters alienated by Brexit. So having carried it out, they could find themselves unelectable because they carried it out.”

    True, but my point was both narrower than that (other than for party loyalists, describing a large group of what used to be called “floating voters” as adherents is misleading), and wider (every party needs to enthuse potential voters on “their” issues, but these voters often demand instant gratification, or their interest wanes).

    My current opinion [1] is that their is a significant group of voters who see particular issues as exciting, but when they become the long drawn-out reality of compromise and fudge, they lose interest and move onto something else.

    [1] If you don’t like my opinion, then (like Groucho Marx) I have others. :-)

  38. @Oldnat

    Indeed – this from last year, but relevant. Increasingly, there is no more party loyalty.

    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/how-were-almost-all-swingers-now/#.WV18VrpFw2w

    “According to the data, the proportion of swing voters has been steadily increasing ever since the 1960s. In 1966, only around 13% of voters changed their minds since the previous election. In 2015, 38% of voters changed their minds. While it’s not surprising that lots of voters switched in 2015, this analysis does show that there was surprising turmoil beneath the surface in 2010, despite a relatively small change in the performance of the parties. While these largely cancelled out that time, it set the stage for dramatic change in the parties’ votes in 2015 when the voters all shifted in the same direction”

  39. Richard

    Thanks for the link to the BES data

    I note that they intended to do a more detailed analysis of “where these voters live”. Do you know if that has been published?

    There has been some work done on changes in attention span due to information technology.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attention_span#Modern_society

    I wonder if this is reflected in the political world.

  40. @Oldnat

    I haven’t seen anything yet, I think Brexit and the GE must have diverted their attention.

    But it is good to see that “anything can happen” at the next election even in the UK.

    I see Macron founded his party on 6 April 2016. Now he is president and his new party won an absolute majority. For a party just over a year old that is incredible.

    We need an En Marche of our own. I’m hoping Brexit triggers that.

  41. Richard

    MacRon is Gaelic for “Son of a Seal”.

    In today’s political climate, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if his party is culled at the next election in France, if he hasn’t delivered an immediate transformation. :-)

    The Celtic/Scandinavian tales of the seal people (selkies) seem rather appropriate for modern voters –

    “Seal people are said to be cursed with a constant longing for what they do not have: when they are swimming in the water as seals, they yearn to be on land, and when they walk on two legs as a human, they long to be in the sea.” :-)

  42. Richard

    We most certainly don’t need a Macron or an En Marche here in the UK, it might well be the case that France needs such a person/movement but we most certainly don’t.

    Lots of people who normally are suspicious of even alleged personality cults are getting behind one of the shallowest most contrived media created personality cults since Blair. Actually is worse than Blair. Everything he comes out with is vacuous, but what we know from when he worked for hollande is that he speaks socialism and delivers neo-libralism.

    I’m not sure if France needs a dose of neo-libralism but I do know that the last thing this country needs is more of it. Any more of that medicine is likely to kill the patient, it’s a bit like chemotherapy. If you don’t have cancer doctors won’t prescribe chemotherapy because it’s bad for you, when the cancer has been defeated the doctors want to get you off the chemo as fast as possible.

    France doesn’t have the same problems we have, it’s society isn’t the same as ours. A more market liberal direction might be what they need but we need a good dose of socialism to restore balance to our society, about ten years worth but not more.

  43. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40506570

    Seems to me that the Governments main problem is economics and not Brexit at the moment. The Tories have always claimed to offer sound economics and polling has always shown the Tories ahead on economic competence over other parties.

    The question is whether the Tories can avoid any lasting downturn in the economy, where they are not getting the tax receipts, the deficit is still significant and they feel they can’t increase taxes. Public sector workers may not be willing to wait much longer for a decent pay rise and Government might not be in a position to offer much more than the current 1% overall cap. This might well lead to strikes and general discontent in the country, which even a Government with a majority would struggle with.

    And the £1 billion deal with the DUP won’t be helpful as it destroyed the ‘magic moneytree’ argument. Government has always had a ‘magic moneytree’ down the back of the sofa at number 11 Downing Street. It is always a question of when politically they have to reach down the back of that sofa and i think any chancellor in the next few years is going to be doing a lot of sofa searching.

    i can see the current Government losing plenty of votes in Parliament and it being very difficult to keep the DUP on side. The FTPA makes it very difficult to force an early election if a Government does not want to hold one. Given the current world we are living in, Government must be hoping that events are lucky for them and they can navigate rough seas without becoming so unpopular that they have to wait until 2022 for an election.

  44. I suspect there’s a problem with responses to polling questions about the importance of Brexit.

    For a keen Brexiter, there is no problem in nominating Brexit as the most important (or one of the most important) issue. But for a remainer, choosing Brexit might seem the same as choosing “leaving the EU”, or endorsing Brexit.

    It would be interesting to see responses to an alternative issue along the lines of “avoiding a bad Brexit deal.”

    Incidentally, am I alone (as they say) in disliking the foisting of ‘IMO’ on posters here? It seems a good example of right-wing political correctness. Aren’t constructions like ‘I think” and ‘I suspect’ sufficient – and a lot less obtrusive – when expressing a personal view rather than an established fact?

  45. Will we see US missile strikes against North Korea and what is likely in regard to polling of any UK Government support ?

    I can’t see US bombing North Korea, because of the proximity of South Korea, the diplomatic consequences with China and the likely impact on global economics.

    I think North Korea would have to present an immediate threat to neighbours in the region, before any action was taken against them by any countries forces. Just testing missiles into the sea, is not sufficient justification for any actions to be taken.

    UK public opinion would i think be against any UK Government support for actions against North Korea, unless North Korea actually fired missiles at another country as an act of war.

  46. @ Somerjohn

    No you are not alone. I don’t normally use IMO or IMHO, because if you are adding comments to an online forum, it goes without saying that you have an opinion. Otherwise why bother ?

    UKPR is a polling discussion site and trying to keep it to only issues affecting polling is very difficult to achieve. People come with opinions and often totally opposite to others.

    You may have read that a House of Lords committee is looking at polling and one Lord even suggested that no polling take place during an election. If this ever became official policy, i should imagine that AW would be changing the site radically.

  47. Cambridgerachel,
    “We most certainly don’t need a Macron or an En Marche here in the UK,”

    We already have one. He’s called Corbyn. While the parallels are not exact, Corbyn too was a party member who broke away from his party and on his personal determination created a new political force. It is still a fight for direction and control of the party.

    Not to overlook Nigel Farage, who also created his own personal party. One could say its a trend.

    Somerjohn
    “But for a remainer, choosing Brexit might seem the same as choosing “leaving the EU”, or endorsing Brexit.”

    Something which has crossed my mind from time to time. Difficult to phrase questions so they are not prone to misinterpretation. The yougov poll someone linked above analysing reasons for voting in the last election, might indeed suffer from that. It says ‘ what issues were most important to you in deciding how to vote’ and then has a list, including ‘Britain leaving the EU’. Some people might have interpreted this option as including ‘whether or not Britain should leave the EU’, but some might have interpreted it as ‘supporting Britain leaving the EU’ and deliberately not chosen it because they saw it as the opposite of their view.

    So the survey might in fact be self biasing. The finding that conservative leavers are more motivated by Brexit than labour remainers might be false. Nice catch.

  48. Somerjohn
    I tend to use IMO when replying to posters who come out with tendentious stuff without using IMO, or making it clear that they are flying a kite as it were. ( I’m not right wing by the way, so I don’t think it’s a political tic).

  49. @R Huckle

    “And the £1 billion deal with the DUP won’t be helpful as it destroyed the ‘magic moneytree’ argument. Government has always had a ‘magic moneytree’ down the back of the sofa at number 11 Downing Street.”

    If the Government does still have a magic money tree as you suggest then I would suggest that with the ongoing current large deficit it is but a puny Bonsai sized 1 billion magic money tree and not the Giant Redwood sized 1000 billion magic money tree that Corbyn and McDonnell would need to harvest each year!

  50. Martin L,
    “it is but a puny Bonsai sized 1 billion magic money tree and not the Giant Redwood sized 1000 billion magic money tree that Corbyn and McDonnell would need to harvest each year”

    The truth is plainly somewhere between those two numbers. The unfortunate thing is that the health of your money tree depends on how the rest of the forest is doing, and it might be that ours is doing rather worse now when it might be called upon more, than it was over the period since the 2008 crash.

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