ICM have resumed polling for the Guardian. Topline figures for their first post-election poll are CON 41%(-3), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 3%(+1) – changes are from the election result.

In terms of methodology, ICM have dropped the turnout model that produced such large, but ultimately incorrect, Tory leads as well as their political interest weighting. This isn’t going all the way back to their 2015 methodology (ICM also made a change to how they reallocated don’t knows who refused to give a past vote and, of course, switched from telephone to online), but it’s a long way in that direction.


310 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 41, LAB 43, LDEM 7, UKIP 3”

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  1. Came across this, it’s a bit troubling

    “My EU partner had his application rejected as he hadn’t proven he was his EU nationality for the past 5 years (the ID card he sent in was only issued 18 months ago; he’s been a citizen since birth). He’s not even sure HOW to prove he’s been that nationality all his life, as he only has his most recent passport and ID card as he didn’t keep the old ones when he got new ones.

    He’s a doctor. I’m a doctor. We are leaving. Duck this for a game of soldiers.”

  2. @CambridgeRachel

    A birth certificate will do the job or an attestation of the length of citizenship from their embassy. It’s not difficult so they shouldn’t throw their toys out of the pram.

  3. “Several people got the Con share correct, but only Nick P got the Labour share correct (40%) – he was also only 3 off the Con total, just missing out on the top 10.”

    I remain (unprovable, either way), that but for the atrocities stalling Lab’s march that my prediction would have been very close indeed (think it was Lab 40, Con 39)

    But, who knows? Maybe this really was a good election to lose (or at least, to lose narrowly).

  4. @Sea Change

    “A birth certificate will do the job or an attestation of the length of citizenship from their embassy. It’s not difficult so they shouldn’t throw their toys out of the pram.”

    ———–

    Well, what will likely “do the job” is these doctors moving to one of the other EU countries where they don’t have this moving target/guessing game rigmarole.

  5. Nick wrt to you and others I think SSS’s shout for Mark’s early prediction is a good one – predicting so close on 21/05 was either lucky or insightful but imo he is the winner.

  6. CARFREW
    ” Lib Dems either move further to the left at the margins or else compete with Tories.”

    Supporting remaining in the EU, internatonal free trade, electoral reform and conitutional human rights, wit h which most peeps will associate the LibDems, is within the agenda of some parts of both mainstream parties and does not appear to call for them to move either to the left or the right. That said, I should have thought they have more in common and more to gain from association with Labour in HOC votes,, and on past form would have expected Vince Cable to be sending out feelers to Labour.

  7. Craig,
    “The Tories are detoxified and the Lib Dems are no match like they were through the New Labour period, in the same way the Left has been detoxified”

    Not sure where you get this. You go on to mention Brexit, but this is now the core issue for toxification, whether you are for or against it. The polling analysis shows tory and labour supporters are hugely polarised leave and remain repectively. Labour recovery has mirrored faling support for Brexit, especially hard Brexit.

    Conservatives just ran a campaign banking on national support for Brexit, and lost.

    Somerjohn,
    ” I’d expect Vince to add at least 5% to LD VI very quickly, with the potential to grow a lot more by attracting disgruntled Tory and Labour remainers.”

    Libs positioned themselves centre right by their coalition with the tories, and it proved a spectacular failure in 2015. To survive they must be distinctive from both main parties. That they exist at all right now is because they adopted the most remain stance, but that is barely enough given they have no power to implement this policy. Remainers have rightly concluded their best chance lies with labour.

    It is possible libs could pick up left wing tories disaffected by conservatives, but they like everyone else understand how tactical voting works. If you want remain, you have to vote labour and cross your fingers. But 1/3 of those who voted conservative are remainers, which is a big chunk of people they might be able to target. The problem is presumably that these people want conservatives style social and tax policies, which libs still would not have power to deliver.

    In the future one day Brexit will cease to be an issue. Might take hundreds of years, this referendum did not settle the matter any more than the last one (rather less, in fact, because of the closeness of the vote). Unlikely by the next election.

    If Brexit has dropped off the top of the list of important issues, then social inequality is already jockying for position, and it is playing to labour.

    The growth in vote percentage for both labour and conservative is because the electorate sees the issues of the day as important enough to turn out. This is not a moment for protesting against either big party by supporting a small one which will have no power.

  8. Martin L,
    ” The main problem with Keynesian theory in today’s global economy us that money no longer tends to infinitely recirculate within the modern domestic economy”

    One of the reasons for this is the modern mania to cut taxes, especially on the harder to reach and already wealthiest sections of the population. Budget deficits are a consequence of the wrong taxation policies. You have to get the money back into circulation from where it is piling up.

    S thomas,
    “.They want her to own it and come in fresh for 2022 as new leader.”

    Yes, I think that is true. She might get sick of it though. Cameron left because he saw it coming.

    ” It would be a delighttif the ardent remain posters on this site who seem to have come late to loving Jezza now find themselves supporting the man who may desire TM to push a tough brexit deal through parliament n 2019.”

    Indeed amusing. However, I think the evidence remains wholly consistent that labour is winning now because it is seen as supporting remain, and if public opinion swings further towards remain, labour must follow. Otherwise we will be back to three party politics with a big growth of libs as the only remain party and conservatives winning again on the determined hard brexiteers plus hard right. We just saw a mini revolt of labour MPs demanding remain, and this will likely grow. But Corbyn’s personal supporters are pro remain too and he has to deliver on this.

  9. Re predictions I think I should be considered for the cup [I assume there is one?]

    I said I didn’t have a clue and that was 100% accurate – I didn’t.

  10. Danny,

    I think your closing para.is very accurate and maybe even in Scotland (which is a 3 party contest) many indy supporters may go back to voting Labour in GEs esp as they now have a chance to win.

    ‘The growth in vote percentage for both labour and conservative is because the electorate sees the issues of the day as important enough to turn out. This is not a moment for protesting against either big party by supporting a small one which will have no power’

  11. @Carfrew & @Martin L – one of the other ways that a stimulus can work is by unlocking other private investments.

    Post crash, one of the first things Osborne did was to cut annual investment allowances. Meanwhile, Germany (and others) pumped money into investment tax relief schemes. In the UK, investment all but dried up, in Germany, they got on with getting their economy ready for the post crash phase.

    After two years, Osborne realised how daft this was and started to do more to help investment, but by then, companies were sitting on huge cash mountains which he really should have been encouraging into the economic system from day one, especially when assets were cheap immediately post crash.

    Instead, he favoured cuts to corporation tax, which ended up with higher dividends, much of which are owned overseas or transferred into other tax juristictions for new investment.

  12. @S Thomas “d. OOOOhh Jeremy Corbyn.It may be that there is a delicious irony here. It has been assumed that Jezza is a remainer who has had to pander to the labour working class leavers . But there is a body of evidence that the reverse is true. Jezza could be the biggest brexiteer of them all and is in fact pandering to the remain inclined middle class. His USP is that he is a conviction politician who has not changed his views since the 70’s. If true then he has and remains anti-europe. In both article 50 and the Chuka amendment he has whipped his party to support the reality of brexit. It would be a delight tif the ardent remain posters on this site who seem to have come late to loving Jezza now find themselves supporting the man who may desire TM to push a tough brexit deal through parliament n 2019.”

    It is truly delectable, I agree. He’s been proven a very poor leader but a great campaigner (if it’s not for the EU!!).

    To date, he has voted against remaining in the EEC in 1975. Enthusiastically backed the 1983 Labour Manifesto to leave the EEC in which he was first voted into Parliament upon. Voted against Maastricht in 1992 that transformed the EEC to the EU. Voted against the Lisbon Treaty 2009 (EU Constitution). And to top it all off he totally hamstrung the Remain campaign in 2016 and then voted to enact Article 50 in 2017 and 3 line whipped his party to do so too.

    7.5/10 for the EU is he? Jeremy could be a stand-up comedian if he wished.

    (Not So) Secret Agent Corbyn has been a Brexiteer’s best friend. I was gutted for the country that we had a hung Parliament going into the Brexit negotiations but Leavers shouldn’t worry unduly. Jezza is in the Brexit camp (with bells on) and large swathes of Labour MPs outside of London are committed to leaving the single market and customs union and ending freedom of movement.

    Remainers on here without rose-tinted specs on, like PatrickBrian, acknowledge the above.

    “e. Another delight is to see those remain posters who say they oppose brexit because of the economic consequences, now supporting the economic strategy, if that is the right word, of Corbonomics oblivious to the far greater damage that his policies might cause.It must be alright in some eyes to ruin an economy provided we remain in the EU that is”

    It’s called cognitive dissonance. Tribal hatred of the Tories can override reason in this case.

    What Brexit and Corbyn’s leading of the Labour party has done is utterly muddy the waters. I would be extremely sceptical of reading anything into the polls at this time with the situation so fluid and so many contradictory positions held by both politicians and voters.

  13. The debate over ‘where next for the LDems’ is all the rage on LibDem Voice.

    Defintely Vince is seen as a holding leader until the younger newer MPs (Swinson and the new MPs in Bath and Oxford) are experienced enough to consider stepping up.

    Those pushing for neo-liberal economic policy along with social liberalism seem to be a pretty small, if quite vocal minority.

    There is also a small minority pitching for a total focus on Remain.

    The greater part seem to know that they don’t want to be defined either by neo-lib economics or ultra-Remain beliefs, but are still trying to figure out how to define a unique and readily understandable position.

    The consensus seems to be settling around a reaffirmed commitment to localism and democracy, but that doesn’t really set the pulse racing. Still, early days yet…

  14. SC –
    ‘now supporting the economic strategy, if that is the right word, of Corbonomics oblivious to the far greater damage that his policies might cause’

    what you refer to as cognitive dissonance is an opinion about the right macro-economic approach for the Economy.

    Alec helpfully reminds us of a common view of the early Osborne years.

    You seem to share ST’s outlook and that is fine but don’t dismiss those of us who favour a different path.
    We could easily say that austerity hawks are oblivious to the far greater damage that has been caused than was necessary and that further unnecessary damage will follow in the austerity first line is maintained.
    I would not characterise your view as cognitive dissonance.

    We disagree and leave it at that.

  15. @ Sea Change & S Thomas

    It’s rare indeed for me to find an area of agreement with you two, but that is where I find myself on Corbyn and Brexit. All the evidence points to him sharing the long-term, entrenched hostility to the EU of ardent brexiters like our very own TOH.

    That’s why (to use my least favourite soundbite construction) I believe there is huge scope for a Cable-hauled LD revival. Much of Labour’s increased support comes from remainers pinning their hopes for a softer brexit, or even non-brexit, on Corbyn. Danny thinks that as a result Labour will have to be a remainer party. I think he’ll be disappointed, and along with him many millions of Labour’s new supporters. Corbyn will remain true to his long-held belief that a socialist utopia can only be constructed outside the EU. “Socialism in one country” could be his slogan, except that this work is much more effectively accomplished behind the scenes.

  16. Polling Q for our host – the OP has GE vote shares of 44/41/8/2 for the four main British parties, where the UK-wide vote share was 42/40/7/2. Are you working from GB figures? If so, have these been pubilshed?

  17. Off-topic

    I’m not following politics particularly closely ATM, partly because it’s summer and I’m spending as much time outside as possible and partly out of frustration. However, as the weather during my week off was absolutely lousy I managed to read the whole of Varoufakis’s account of what he calls his ‘battle with Europe’s deep establishment’, which was fascinating and absolutely hair-raising. It left me with a lot of questions, but I’d strongly recommend it to anyone interested in EU decision-making or radical politics. Read his opening anecdote about insiders and outsiders: if that piques your curiosity I suspect you’ll find it as interesting as I did.

    As well as having more than his fair share of self-belief (probably a net asset under the circumstances) Varoufakis appears to be an incurable optimist.

  18. @Jim Jam “what you refer to as cognitive dissonance is an opinion about the right macro-economic approach for the Economy.”

    Not so, what I call cognitive dissonance is believing in Corbyn’s anti right-wing macro-economic approach and at the same time believe in Remaining in the EU which is the epitome of the opposite economic view, run by the Bundesbank in all but name.

    I happen to disagree with Corbyn’s view because I think it is misguided both in its end goal and in the world’s current globalised environment. But there is no dissonance in holding just that view it is the combination with remaining in the EU that is the issue.

  19. @Somerjohn

    I agree with you. Once the scales fall from the eyes of the Remainers about Corbyn there will be a serious opportunity for a smartly led Lib Dem partly.

    The problem is time (or lack of it). I suspect once we are deep in the negotiations to leave, much of the public will consider the subject done and dusted (a mistake in my view). That’s assuming the negotiations are conducted in a reasonable manner by both sides.

  20. “Came across this, it’s a bit troubling

    “My EU partner had his application rejected as he hadn’t proven he was his EU nationality for the past 5 years (the ID card he sent in was only issued 18 months ago; he’s been a citizen since birth). He’s not even sure HOW to prove he’s been that nationality all his life, as he only has his most recent passport and ID card as he didn’t keep the old ones when he got new ones.

    He’s a doctor. I’m a doctor. We are leaving. Duck this for a game of soldiers.”
    @cambridgerachel July 5th, 2017 at 4:18 am

    Thinking out the box, would it not be easier to deport all the Brexiters? It would solve the referendum problem.

  21. Joseph1832,
    “what has changed in terms of underlying political and economic views that shape party choices”

    You mean, apart from brexit overturning virtually all our foreign policy asumptions?

    Oddly enough, Thatcher nailed it. Housing. Not a new idea, governments have engaged in major housebuilding for a century. Thatcher’s tweak was that everyone should be able to own their own house. Good start, but ran into the sand when she also halted the major source of new housing in the country, by government building. The grenfell fire feeds into this background, because it highlights that some groups are forced into low quality housing, and this is really a consequence of policy. Could hardly happen in a neighbourhood where the difference between rich and poor is more sharp.

    Its not even about government money, because more relaxed planning laws would have boosted private construction. We had an analysis of how groups voted, and critically would be home owners are deserting the tories because they can no longer afford to own. The policy panders to the rich and aspiring rich, but has reached the point it is now excluding aspiring voters from joining the conservative rich club.

    ” I suspect – taking out young people entering the game – there has been little shift in opinions”

    The under 55 age group, you mean? Thats the ones who are switching.

  22. Somerjohn,
    ” Corbyn will remain true to his long-held belief that a socialist utopia can only be constructed outside the EU”
    I don’t agree. Corbyn might agree with you he wants a socialist utopia, but he is more or less ambivalent about the EU. The EU does not constrain Uk governments anyway near so much as leavers like to make out. That too is a point of disagreement between leave/remain.

    But in particular, the path to socialist utopia lies through the votes of remain supporters. Just as the path to conservative utopia has lain through the votes of house owners.

  23. Sea change

    If those that want a more left wing economic policy and want to remain in the EU are being illogical then aren’t those that want a more rightwing economic policy and to leave the EU guilty of the same failure of logic

  24. attempting to avoid automod…….
    Good link CR, thanks. Mind you I’ve been saying that for 20 years and the placards have yet to turn into pitchforks (though we may be close to the tipping point).
    I’ve been mulling over our frankly astonishing election results round here and trying to see where they came from. Yes, many were undoubtedly young lefties inspired by JC. But some at least were Tories who flipped Lab. Good candidate, yes. Incumbency dividend, yes. Hacked off with May’s Brexit rhetoric, certainly. But they wouldn’t have voted Labour if there was not a sense that what Hanauer says is correct.

  25. Al urqa

    “Thinking out the box, would it not be easier to deport all the Brexiters? It would solve the referendum problem.”

    It would also solve the housing crisis

  26. @Somerjohn – On Brexit and Corbyn.

    People forget on the morning of the 24th June 2016, even before Cameron resigned, Corbyn was eager for an immediate invoking of A50.

    “We must respect that result and Article 50 has to be invoked now so that we negotiate an exit from European Union.”

    That does not strike me as someone who was mourning the decision!

  27. Sea change

    It was someone who wanted to put maximum pressure on a deeply divided Tory party before they had a chance to pull together. Remember that Cameron promised that if the ref went against him he would trigger A50 immediately.

    I thought it was exceptionally good tactics.

  28. @CambridgeRachel “If those that want a more left wing economic policy and want to remain in the EU are being illogical then aren’t those that want a more rightwing economic policy and to leave the EU guilty of the same failure of logic”

    No that’s not the case. Most Leavers did not vote on a left/right economic policy. The Leave vote was predicated on control of borders, laws and money – matters of sovereignty. Being able to negotiate free trade agreements is a matter of sovereignty too.

    What one does once one has that power is another matter which is why Corbyn and co are secret Brexiteers.

    We will be free to pursue either marxist, centrist or red-toothed capitalism once we leave.

    The point is Corbyn wants Brexit. He wants it so he can properly fulfil his vision. He needs control to do that.

  29. “Taskforce” being appointed to take over running of some council services at K&C. If this had been done earlier, it would have looked like a government taking charge, but this will be accompanied by accusations of too-little / too late. Government still playing catch-up.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/05/kensington-and-chelsea-taskforce-to-take-over-key-council-services

  30. @CAMBRIDGERACHEL “It was someone who wanted to put maximum pressure on a deeply divided Tory party before they had a chance to pull together. Remember that Cameron promised that if the ref went against him he would trigger A50 immediately.
    I thought it was exceptionally good tactics.”

    I couldn’t disagree more. It provoked utter derision from the PLP and moderate Labour voters. And led to an immediate civil war led by Benn, followed by perhaps the worst period in Labour’s history since 1931.

    It also allowed the Tories to organise and reach a reasonably unified position while Labour was in total chaos.

    It was unbelievably poor tactics from a man who is a poor Leader who let his true intentions shine through when he should have kept his counsel.

  31. @Sea Xhange
    Post-hoc stuff from you in the main, pretty much all along the lines of trying to show the Tories know what they are doing, and that the LP don’t.
    CR is closer to the truth, IMO, of course.

  32. @RJW

    The Tories have hardly been mentioned. The discussion is about Corbyn and his views on Brexit. Perhaps you find the conclusions unpalatable?

  33. Sea Change
    No, just partisan, and wrong!

  34. RJW: “CR is closer to the truth, IMO, of course.”

    Well, as I understand it, CR’s position is that Corbyn is not a committed brexiteer, but rather a lukewarm remainer who respects the ‘will of the people’ as expressed in the referendum. Thus his support for A50 etc is merely helping the Tories dig a deeper hole for themselves, or, as she puts it, “exceptionally good tactics” (Corbyn as Mr Kipling?).

    But as others have pointed out, Corbyn has a record of invriably voting against the EU at every opportunity since 1983. Given that he is a man of steadfast, unwavering principle, that surely makes CR’s position hard to maintain.

    So I’m with Sea Change on the potential for scales to fall from the eyes of remainers who lent their votes to Labour. If Cable has any sense, he will relentlessly hammer home the message that recent Labour converts have been duped by a false prospectus. Once the LDs have a leader who commands respect, and a consistent message, then all will once more be to play for.

    In the battle of Uncle Vince versus Uncle Jeremy, my money’s on Vince.

  35. S Thomas
    Seachange
    Somerjohn

    We seem to agree about Corbyn being a closet leaver, but stuff about motivations and tactics is still only conjecture.

    On the other hand, if anyone can make a clear distinction between Labour and conservative POLICY on Brexit, perhaps they’d like to explain it, because I can’t see it.

    And yet an overwhelming (and I think growing) majority of labour voters support Remain. It doesn’t make sense, and is surely not sustainable.

  36. PatrickBrian
    ‘Masterly ambiguity’ is what one of UKPRs sages described the Labour position on Brexit as at the time of the GE.
    Nothing has changed, the only clarity that has emerged is that Labour wants to negotiate as close to a present terms of access to markets as poss, whilst not being in the club. People have grasped this, hence the remainers realise that Labour is the only realistic pot whithin which to p*ss. Sorry Somerjohn, Uncle Vince will get nowhere, IMO, of course.

  37. We know Corbyn is against nukes, he wants to scrap trident but he accepts party policy which is to renew trident although to be fair he will do whatever he can to change party policy. What he has never done is say “I’m 70% in favour of retaining trident”.

    Why would he hide his true beliefs about the EU but not about nukes, if being dishonest is so easy for Corbyn why doesn’t he just say “you know what, I really don’t like nukes but on balance I’m 7 out of 10 in favour”. It would be really helpful for him both within the party and with the public.

    I saw a question and answer session that Corbyn had with a bunch of young people. He was measured and reasonable, spoke clearly and sincerely. I was really impressed because up until that point the labour remain campaign had made me want to vote leave. I don’t believe that Corbyn loves the EU but I do believe that his opposition has mellowed.

    It doesn’t really matter anyway because Brexit won’t happen because it’s impossible. Too complicated and far too damaging as the Tories are now finding out

  38. re: “lib dem revival” no signs of this whatsoever. the political situation is far too polarised for “centrist” opportunists to flourish.

  39. It just keeps coming;

    Services PMI down, productivity back down below 2007 levels, car sales falling for the first time in ages, price pressures in the services sector rising, business confidence falling….

    Sensible Brexit supporters knew this was coming, and sensible remain supporters knew this wasn’t going to happen the day after we voted to leave.

    These numbers are really only news to the more delusional leave factionalists who thought we could exit the EU and move to the sunlit uplands without a ripple of turbulence, but thankfully there are signs that even these people are beginning to understand they got it wrong. There were some of these in government, it seems, but there does seem to be a more realistic mood dawning, even there.

    As I said a couple of days ago, I was conflicted during the referendum campaign, eventually coming down on the remain side for a variety of reasons. While fully aware of many of the faults of the EU, I was also aware of many of its successes, and what the UK stood to lose by leaving.

    Overall, I felt that if we are to leave, we need to leave when we are economically much stronger, and not under a Conservative government who remain by and large, both ideologically distorted about too many aspects of the EU while also clueless about how to leave. I also felt that if remaining turned out to be a bad call, we can revisit the issue in the medium future.

    Looking at these numbers, and the thrashing about of the government’s negotiating team, I feel more justified in my decision and reasoning than ever. I strongly suspect many Tories secretly hope that some science fiction brain wiping magnetic pulse from the outer universe would sweep across the country and erase the memory of the last eighteen months or so, and remove entirely the issue of Brexit. They are beginning to realise what they need to deliver, and the fact that they can’t do that.

    Currently I see no good news on the horizon, and I am straining hard to gaze as far ahead as I can.

  40. Patrick,

    In Essence Lab, Economy and Jobs before immigration.

    Tories the opposite.

    Labour want single market access and will agree to pay accept some free movement to gain (details unknown and should be ahead of negotiation).

    Labour are unequivocal that he Single market is the EU’s Internal single market so membership of it not compatible with leaving the EU in line with the ref result.

    They want a transitional agreement in place to run from 2019 to 2021 approx. basically operating as now.

    They also want a meaningful parliamentary scrutiny and debate and vote but not a second referendum on the negotiated terms which if an interim deal is agreed won’t be necessary anyway until 2-3 years later just prior to the schedules 2022 GE if we get that far?

    What is not LP policy but is me speculating is that if the remain/brexit position changes in the country to a clear remain and Macron, Merkel and other Governments enable meaningful changes (derivations) from free movement Labour may switch to offering a second GE as the EU we would be re-joining would be different from the one we left. Could be 2022 manifesto commitment or at least a commitment to explore further and not rule out another EU ref if a decent re-entry deal can be achieved in the (Lab) Governments view.

  41. sea change,
    ” Most Leavers did not vote on a left/right economic policy.”

    Pardon me, but was it 80-90% of all who voted, voted in the direction they believed was in their best economic interest.Only a minority of leavers voted against what they saw as their economic interest which lay in being members. Virtually no remainers voted against their perceived economic interest. I would surmise that their views on what constitutes a good economic outcome align with their normal left/right affiliations, so i infer they did vote on a left/right economic policy.

    However, you are probably right that most people either left or right felt Brexit overlaid their economic chances whatever side of the debate they were on. But the lesson of brexit was that voters placed high importance on economic outcome.

  42. Alec

    As predicted by both of us the economic news is not good. However where we disagree is on the impact of Brexit. Clearly the drop in the value of the £ has had an impacy on import prices but to my mind the biggest factor by far is the increse in consumer debt. People have been living beyond their means and it’s catching up at last, that nothing to do with Brexit.

    As to Brexit we disagree totally, I believe it will happen and see no reason why it wouldn’t.

    Not posting much at the moment as I think that British politics is going through a “mad phase” where even sensible Tories are talking about spending increses and stopping austerity. There has been no net austerity as spending has gone on incresing and we still have a large deficit.

    What was needed of course were really deep cuts in the period 2010 to 2015. Sadly that did not happen due in the main to the LD’s.

  43. Alec

    Yes the numbers are worrying, both here and in the US. It’s odd how we seem to be much more closely tied to the cycle in the US rather that the European cycle. Unlike you I don’t put those numbers down exclusively to Brexit. This slowdown was what I was expecting with or without brexit and this is an added problem. We all know that Brexit would be damaging even if our economy was doing really well but to be attempting Brexit at a time when we are heading for a recession anyway is extremely challenging.

  44. sea Change,
    “It was unbelievably poor tactics from a man who is a poor Leader who let his true intentions shine”

    Unbelievably poor tactics which led to a big increase in the labour vote and more MPs? Labour has followed a policy of ‘respecting the referendum result’. That does mean actually applying to leave and comencing negotiations.

    The only alternative would have been to oppose implementation of the vote and stand firmly for Remain. This would in turn have allowed conservatives to soften their own Brexit stance to appeal to soft brexiteers, who labour managed to capture. As it is, the conservatives were forced to hard Brexit to try to capture the UKIP vote. I think your plan would have ended worse for labour.

  45. CR

    “It doesn’t really matter anyway because Brexit won’t happen because it’s impossible. Too complicated and far too damaging as the Tories are now finding out”

    Yes, I’ve thought along those lines right from the beginning; unravelling forty years of integration with the other nations of Europe is a massive task, and the idea of some Brexiters that “We just get out” (eg John Redwood, Rees-Mogg, allegedly the Queen) is hopelessly naive. Every single tiny bit of it is complicated and disruptive – as with the EU citizens / Expats disagreements (potentially one of the simplest problems to solve). And yet both Theresa May and the Labour leadership seem determined that no level of disruption or impoverishment is too high a price when it’s the Will of the People. So I hope you’re right but I’m not sure.

    RJW
    JimJam

    Thanks for the explanations – it still looks like a difference of emphasis rather than detail. As you both suggest, perhaps Labour have left themselves more wriggle room to change tack if opinion changes. Personally it makes me think the worse of them, and I may be the only person on this site to admire Chuka Umunna!

  46. The Other Howard,
    “What was needed of course were really deep cuts in the period 2010 to 2015. Sadly that did not happen due in the main to the LD’s.”

    No. there is no evidence the libs altered government policy at all during the coalition. Rather, they got the credit or blame (depending on outlook) for policies the tory leadership wanted to adopt anyway. Thus your argument they are to blame for not imposing deep austerity, when in fact it was a conservative policy choice.

    The conservatives have followed a line of maintaining the government deficit by failing to increase taxation, so as to justify service cuts, which is a core policy. ‘Small government’ is a conservative aim as desireable in itself, the current situation is simply an opportunity to implement it.

    Each time during the current administration when the economy has turned sour, conservatives have eased back austerity (as now). They do believe in Keynes, they just choose not to apply his approach because they have different aims.

  47. The other Howard

    I have no idea where you get the idea that from 2010 to 2015 there were no deep cuts.

    See

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34790102

    The data taken from the IFS shows massive cuts of 20% in a lot of cases.

    Not sure what you mean by “deep cuts”. If you mean deeper than what happened already then I hope you don’t have children or grandchildren and I hope you don’t need anything g a civilised society has to offer.

    Or maybe you live abroad.

  48. Danny

    Perhaps your correct and it was the Conservatives and the LD’s who didnt cut deep enough. Since I’;m not a Conservative I don’t mind agreeing with your point. However what was needed was deep cuts and we didn’t get them.

  49. Regarding LDs,

    Definitely get the point that since LDs were wiped out in 2015 on a platform that was perceived as slightly right-of-centre, that they might want to tack left to start winning again.

    The problem with that analysis is that it doesn’t seem to realise the last 2 years happened at all.

    LDs platform this time around was not just anti-Brexit. It was also very much a social liberal platform (as opposed to an economic liberal / neoliberal one), with tax and spend policies that were much more progressive than the policies that they supported throughout the coalition and at the 2015 election.

    But let’s not forget that this time around their seat share fell. Ultimately, if you want tax and spend, why wouldn’t you just vote Labour?

    On a uniform national swing, there’s very few seats the LDs could now gain from Labour (many Lib/Lab marginals have become very safe Labour – look at Cambridge, or Simon Hughes’ old seat of Old Bermondsey and Southwark for example – big swings to Lab) , but far more they could gain from the tories, especially in the South West.

    Just doing a quick electoral calculus prediction, keeping the 2017 result the same but applying a 7 point LAB-LD swing, yields the LDs just 6 gains, bringing them to 18 seats. Do the same for a CON-LD swing and it yields 14 LD gains, bringing them to 26 seats.

    I know what strategy I would pick.

  50. @Danny

    My point was that they voted for control. That will allow whatever left/right ecomonic policy one could ask for. Brexit is ideologically neutral in that regard, which is why you have cheerleaders in Corbyn/McDonnell in one camp and IDS and Jacob Rees Mogg in the other

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