A quick update on two new voting intention polls yesterday.

Opinium in the Observer has topline figures of CON 39%(-5), LAB 45%(+4), LDEM 5%(-3), UKIP 5%(+3). Changes are since the general election. Jeremy Corbyn’s net approval ratings are now substantially better than Theresa May’s – 31% approve of how May is doing her job, 51% disapprove; 42% approve of how Corbyn is doing his job, 38% disapprove. Full tabs are here.

Survation meanwhile has topline figures of CON 41%(nc), LAB 40%(-4), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 2%(nc), the first poll since the general election to show the Conservatives ahead (if the changes since the last poll look odd, it’s because the Tory share is actually up by almost a point, but it’s lost in the rounding, and the share for “other” parties is up three points). Full tabs for that are here.


252 Responses to “Latest Opinium and Survation polls”

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  1. @ Jim Jam

    ‘ Genuine lack of local decision making powers has rendered many councils as managerial with the opportunity to do anything political limited.’

    Point taken….. Patrician Labour councils aka Labour First. I used the New Labour label because few outside the LP understand the distinction and in most cases, council leaders began their political lives in the era of Blair and Brown.

    With the 40+% cuts and lack of decision making, I understand the limits on local councils. In addition, they have been set up as the ‘fall guys’ to take the brunt for the cuts dictated by central gov’t ….. but you would not deny that in many instances, decisions could be seen as being identical to a Conservative administration e.g. the Haringey privatisation. Another example would be the Labour council refusing to engage with Sheffield residents over cutting down the street trees. A much more gross example would be Rotherham.

    In any event, it is increasingly clear that the ‘patrician’ councillors wield enormous power in being able to block candidates from the Left in both local and national elections…… and this produces a body of elected representatives who are not reflective of the diversity of views in the membership – with the consequent ‘disharmony’ which exists between Labour supporters and the council chamber/PLP.

  2. @Rich

    “Considering everything, and the ludicrous amount of stuff in May’s in tray, i don’t think these two polls are that bad for the Conservatives.”

    _________

    Not a surprise. A significant asset class has been boosted thanks to Tories/Nulab, people with healthy property values who might fear a government snaffling some of that.

    Perhaps ironically, Theresa threatening to help herself to some of these property windfalls has potentially concentrated minds on the matter, and although worried about Tgeresa, made people fear Corbyn/McDonnell’s intentions even more, and the talk of garden taxes won’t necessarily have helped.

    You yourself enquired on here, in the wake of the Care tax thing, whether people were thinking of shifting assets…

  3. “Don’t know if people here are watching what’s happening in Haringey. It’s not just the Tories that the Corbynistas are protesting against. Labour councils that want to privatise and socially cleanse their areas are also going to have a rough time of it.”

    ———-

    Yes, and as they pursue their more extreme liberal policies, if Labourites oppose them in this, then it’sregarded as being not sufficiently “accommodating”. Apparently liberals are to be accommodated, regardless of how little they are being accommodating themselves, continuing to pursue these policies regardless…

  4. @Syzygy

    “In any event, it is increasingly clear that the ‘patrician’ councillors wield enormous power in being able to block candidates from the Left in both local and national elections……”

    ———–

    This does not seem very accommodating of them. How is it these liberals expect much accommodation within Labour but aren’t so accommodating of others themselves? (Mind you to be fair, they were ok with some token accommodation in nominating Corbyn for the leadership in the first place, but then once he actually got elected, not so much…

  5. There are some very interesting developments in Europe at the moment. There is clearly an issue coming in relation to the migrant crisis, immigration and some countries now simply refusing quotas regardless of what the EU says. I wonder where this will end based on the current position of Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic? Could worst case they even exit.?

  6. @Rich

    Problem with the liberalism possessing the EAu, as opposed to Labourism or Conservatism etc., is that while they’re keen to promote free movement, their kind of liberalism means they’re not sufficiently keen on the interventions to limit the scale of it to levels most will accept, e.g. Transfer payments to limit the amount of migration. Thus the problem grows more than it needs to…

  7. EU

  8. Sue – would agree that the councillor class tends to more right wing and advocate similar candidates for MPs so it an innate conservatism rather than active blocking.

    I accept that some may well go further and seek to deliberately exclude left wingers, although I don’t see that in my area.

    When we last selected in 2008 it was either a union placeman or a Labour councillor and until recently union nominees v anyone but a union nominee was the divide perhaps?

    Think the challenge for momentum is to get their membership to actual turn up as few do in our seat and those that do are outnumbered.

    As I suggested the other day I think few MPs will be deselected even if it becomes easier as most have a power base within constituencies and cultivate members.

    No wish to start a new discussion but shame we don’t have STV with open lists.

  9. @Rich

    “Considering everything, and the ludicrous amount of stuff in May’s in tray, i don’t think these two polls are that bad for the Conservatives.”

    Are we to assume that it is TM’s in-tray that is keeping her so well hidden from view since the election?

    I am struggling to see how donning a cloak of invisibility (or, euphemistically “attending to her in-tray”) at this point and allowing the usual suspects to brief in plain sight against the policies on which she was elected will improve either her or her party’s poll ratings going forward from here.

  10. JIM JAM
    This is precisely the problem in my area. They don’t turn up! And, as someone generally sympathetic to their views, the way politics works is you have to turn up. So often if you make this point you get told you’re unsympathetic/unwelcoming to the newcomers. Actually I’m delighted – but, to paraphrase, no representation without participation.

  11. Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43%
    CON: 41%
    LDEM: 7%
    UKIP: 3%
    GRN: 3%

    (via @ICMResearch / 30 Jun – 03 Jul)

  12. @Rich

    “Considering everything, and the ludicrous amount of stuff in May’s in tray, i don’t think these two polls are that bad for the Conservatives.”

    Agreed but I don’t think we should see polling in traditional terms to predict the next election result. Traditionally we might say mid term blues (even if it isn’t mid term) and talk about how the opposition needs to be this far ahead at a certain stage of the parliament. This time it is all dependent on Brexit.

    I’m pretty sure the next election will be decided firstly on how the public perceive the Brexit deal and their views on freedom of movement, free trade and how much we end up paying the EU for the divorce. Then the 3 years after the initial Brexit (perhaps with interim rules) as to how the economy performs.

    So I’m not really taking much notice of polls at all right now or expecting them to even remotely follow standard patterns.

  13. LATEST ICM:

    Labour: 43% (up 5 points from Guardian/ICM just before the election, using same methodology)

    Conservatives: 41% (down 2)

    Lib Dems: 7% (down 1)

    Ukip: 3% (down 1)

    Greens: 3% (up 1)

  14. Apparently ICM have gone back to pre GE15 turn out weightings. Would I be right in thinking that Labour would be a couple of points higher using GE17 turnout weighting?

  15. @Laszlo

    Very many thanks for the information.

    I will reviewing it all and buying something very soon!

  16. @ Jim Jam

    Re: selection of candidates.

    You are so reasonable!!!!!! but more than a little correct. However, there must be a lot of variation between CLPs.

    As you say, some will choose candidates like themselves because there is the usual unconscious bias. Others will have been much more devious and undemocratic in manipulating results….. doubtless with a genuine belief that it is for the best to block Corbyn supporters.

    My own CLP is 5x the size it was 2y ago and (since the AGM) the officers are predominantly new Corbyn supporting members. Nevertheless, last year all our delegates to conference were anti-Corbyn because of the ‘patrician’ officers who unquestionably ‘rigged’ the selection. It will be interesting to see the conference votes on the various proposed rule changes because that will offer some evidence as to whether the delegates this year reflect the party membership (as it did not last year).

  17. A month on from the election, ICM’s poll looks promising for the Tories – their VI looks rock solid. Meanwhile Labour may be slowly unwinding, perhaps because of the rather public resumption of their civil war.

    However, before counting eggs, it would be good to see what ICM have done with their methodology!

  18. Sue – our delegate is a councillor who I would expect to vote against the rule changes if there is no mandated line so I expect we will see motions to GC seeking a CLP line for the delegate to take from branches with lots of new members (if I can put it like that).
    Some blocking may centre around the ‘delegate should listen to the debate and decide’ line which in many cases is far enough. With these rule changes, though, the arguments are pretty straight forward and I believe the CLP should reach a view after an open debate.

    Personally I have no issue with increase the automatic re-selection threshold and am happy for the MP’s required for leadership nomination %age to be lowered in vacant contest but would keep higher for challenging incumbents and possible higher still for a PM when in office.

    I have heard something about getting rid of the NPF as well which I am fine with as that (Robin Cook) initiative was fine for the party in Government but cumbersome when in opposition.

    I am very comfortable with internal disagreement and rigorous debate then decisions executed properly once voted on and regret very much that caucusing has in effect re-appeared with a vengeance so lines are supported rather than members debating. I often feeling like one of those factionless characters from the ‘Divergent’ trilogy!

  19. Re: Labour council selection of candidates

    In Lambeth the ruling Progress group has already ensured that only its candidates get nominated for 2018, there were cases where candidates selected by local wards were then deselected by Progress because they had been supportative of the libraries campaign. One rebel Labour councillor has been suspended over the issue. Momentum are very active but the positions of control are still in the hands of the right-wingers!

  20. SSIMON

    from the Guardian….

    When it comes to party politics, the poll has good news for Labour. Here are the latest figures. ICM has given up the weighting strategies it used ahead of the 2017 election (because clearly they did not work) and reverted to its pre-2015 weighting methodology. I’ve compared the latest figures with what the ICM eve-of-poll poll would have said if this methodology had been applied.

    Labour: 43% (up 5 points from Guardian/ICM just before the election, using same methodology)

    Conservatives: 41% (down 2)

    Lib Dems: 7% (down 1)

    Ukip: 3% (down 1)

    Greens: 3% (up 1)

    Labour lead: 2 points (up 7)

    So by these numbers their pre election poll using the same methodology would be

    Con 43
    Lab 38
    Lib 8
    UKIP 4
    Green 2

    That’s close to the actual result but still underestimates lab by 2 points. So assuming the same turnout as GE17 this poll should actually read lab 45 con 41, a 4 point lead. Of course we can’t predict the turnout at the next election. Will it fall back to what we consider normal or will it surge again?

  21. With the disasterous GE, May still at the helm, the “grubby” DUP deal and the Grenfell tragedy (100% the fault of the Troies if you believe JMcD) I would expect Labour to be at least 10 points clear by now.

  22. “In Lambeth the ruling Progress group has already ensured that only its candidates get nominated for 2018”

    ———-

    They’re still doing this stuff? How come the Blairite “moderates” aren’t condemning this reluctance to unite and move on?

  23. “With the disasterous GE, May still at the helm, the “grubby” DUP deal and the Grenfell tragedy (100% the fault of the Troies if you believe JMcD) I would expect Labour to be at least 10 points clear by now.”

    ———–

    You might, if Blairites hadn’t done their bit to inflate property prices and hence guarantee sending more votes in the liberal direction. Even Theresa couldn’t challenge it…

  24. @ Jim Jam

    A very likeable ‘factionless characters from the ‘Divergent’ trilogy’. I’d be happy to find myself in your CLP with your voice of faction less reason :)

  25. Andrew Myers

    We have just had a very polarizing general election which still lingers in people’s minds. It’s really too soon for large shifts. But from the way that high up Tories are acting it seems that they believe that their numbers are really soft, that their voters will not be motivated to go to the polls. It also seems that they believe that Labour’s numbers are rock solid. GE15 and GE17 have shown that turnout matters a lot, any poll has to be treated with scepticism because in these volatile times we cannot predict turnout.

  26. @ LAMBETHGREEN

    Thanks for the feedback …. and adds weight to my proposition that there are CLPs where Jim Jam’s ‘patricians’ are clearly road blocks to democratic decisions being taken. Of course, Lambeth has a long history in that respect!

  27. Hello all

    been away a while, went on hols just after the election and then when gardening slipped a disc and have been significantly discommoded (although some of the medication was powerful enough to distort my perception of time and three weeks seemed to pass in episodic chunks so if I appear a little random then please forgive me)
    In respect of CLP’s the comments remind me so much of 1982/1983 in Swansea Labour Association (a particularly peculiar beast made up of two CLP’s and which was found by the NEC to be unconstitutional shortly after this) at that time there were three distinct groups, there was no “New Labour” at that time and the Right would probably have been considered dangerously radical by Blair et al, the right label was mainly on what might be called “social issues” or “political correctness” now, the far left were Militant with their constant call for the immediate nationalisation of the commanding heights of the economy and in particular the top 100 companies, beginning every speech with “Comrade Chairman, Comrades” (so mercilessly, but accurately, parodied in the Red Review at conference in 1985 [I think]) I was in the so called “Soft Left” the Tribune group represented our thinking generally. What the Right had, generally, was a good grip on what the WWC would think of anything, and between the Right and the Soft Left there was a sort of acceptance that compromise was necessary. Militant stood in the way of that sort of compromise, this led to some particularly difficult meetings, with more than one ending in fisticuffs.
    However the parallels are not exact by any means, there was little in the way of ideological differences around ends between the Right and the Soft Left, it was around tactical differences around means. It seems to me that this cannot be said of the Progress/Momentum position that others describe.
    As I have said before because of my job I can no longer be involved in party politics, however I would really like to attend some of these meetings to see what is going on for the political enthusiast it must be exhilarating to have real debates about political ideas, and that must surely emerge when selection of delegates and party officers takes place.

  28. Looks like the polls for the moment are beginning to drift to that point were there is little difference between the two major parties it could be we are seeing the abating of the Corbyn surge coupled with the Tories holding onto there share of support which I find frankly surprising considering the very negative press they’ve had since the GE
    However I would not be surprised to see the Tories nudge ahead in the next few months while Labour struggle to keep up momentum (no pun intended) I could be wrong of course but the more Labour take there arguments to the streets the further they will be from power.

  29. “because in these volatile times we cannot predict turnout.”

    ————

    Well one gets the impression that one thesis on here might be that some think Labour’s current performance is down to the Corbyn factor, his personal traits that might not be replicated in future leaders, or maybe the shine will wear off him anyway.

    On the other hand, if it’s driven by policy concerns like tuition fees, being able to afford a house, pay bills, have summat better than zero hours etc., then the change might last regardless of Corbyn.

  30. @ CambridgeRachel

    Thanks for that. My concern is that ICM’s 2015 methodology isn’t exactly ideal either, particularly given recent trends in youth turnout which, though still low, is evidently on the up. Which gives me less confidence in ICM at present.

  31. test

  32. ICM results suggesting that, as I anciticpated, the Survation poll was an outlier. According to the Guardian, this is a like-for-like net gain of 7 points for Lab over the Tories (using the same methodology) compared to the pre-election poll, showing Labour up 5 and Tories down 2. Looks to me like survation was an error, then.

    Judging by the fact that the methodology they’re currently using would still have slightly under-estimated Lab (38% vs 41% in GB – the poll is not UK-wide), you could interpolate that as meaning a 5 point lab lead, compared to those polls which are using GE2017 as a base.

    A 7 point change in the relative CON-LAB standings is fairly sizeable. On that basis, I would say this poll probably looks worse for Labour than it is.

    In fact, in terms of left/right splits I’d say it’s consistent with all other polls since the election, bar Survation. Overall what we’re consistently seeing is that CON + UKIP gets about 44% of the vote combined (-2 on the election), and Lab + LD + GRN is scoring about 52-53 (+2-3 on the election). The only poll that is an exception is the recent Survation one, which has a bizarrely huge ‘others’ vote at 6% (the poll previously was 3% – further suggesting this is a bit of an outlier – both were UK-wide polls).

    Of course Survation are the only ones doing phone polls at the moment. Possible mode effects going on. Looking forward to seeing the crossbreaks.

  33. SSIMON

    I usually find myself agreeing with your analysis but not this time around. I see the poll as good news for Labour at a very bullish 43%. Let’s not forget Labour have already clawed back a huge amount of vote share in the preceding months. There is bound to be a slowing down.

    Separately an awful lot can still go wrong for the Tories. We are at the start of very trying Brexit negotiations. The economy is slowing and inflation is rising. Our hospitals are likely to be stretched more than ever this winter. Public sector strikes are in my view likely. There are of course fears of more terrorist strikes on our shores. We also need to beware the unforeseen.

    This may well be just the start of the difficulties for the Tories under a PM who is now thoroughly disliked by the electorate. It could get an awful lot worse but even if it does I cannot see Labour polling beyond 50%

  34. Previous Survation was in line so may have been just normal sample variation. Still within MOE of a 2–4% lab lead though.

  35. @CARFREW

    Most selection meetings took place last year, before the General Election was called. Most of the now enthusiastic Momentum supporters were not interested last year.

  36. @Barny

    “Most selection meetings took place last year, before the General Election was called. Most of the now enthusiastic Momentum supporters were not interested last year.”

    ——–

    That may be true, but it’s possible that Blairite parachuting predates last year.

  37. I think the benefit of the doubt factor has shifted markedly.

    Blair had it initially remember ‘ I am straightforward type of guy’ or some such.

    May has none and any error will be perceived as much worse than it may be. It happened to Brown and Major to an extent (although in his case it was the Tory party more than him and he was seen as a decent guy not able to control them).

    For Corbyn – I can’t make out how much benefit of the doubt he will get for inevitable errors all leaders make. He was marmite at one point but now he is unacceptable to many less and acceptable to many more, probably enough to win in a mythical GE tomorrow – is he still on probation with these voters though? I think so with enough to make a difference. Consolidation before seeking further advances and letting the Tories struggle may be the best course but not one that comes naturally to him, in which case maybe better going with his instincts, although riskier?

  38. ANDREW MYERS

    You are one of those deluded individuals who are unable to grasp that the NI “money” is not going to the DUP – it is going to Northern Ireland people be they Protestant Catholic Sinn Fein DUP UUP SDLP or Alliance – what they have been through as a whole I certainly do not begrudge

  39. @Andrew Myers
    …and the right-wing Brexit vote to disappear? How do you get a 10% lead when you’re already in the mid 40’s? The polarisation has meant the types of leads you’d expect are considerably smaller, unless there’s a UKIP revival that they’d jump on board to.

    @Ssimon
    Seems ridiculous to portray this as the Labour vote unwinding when it’s their highest ICM figure in 15 years.

  40. BOBINNORFOLK @ ANDREW MYERS

    The fact that the money may eventually reach some of the NI public does not make the deal less grubby, particularly as Barnett consequentials will not be applied.

  41. I’m not denying these are good numbers for Labour – clearly, they’re among the best the party has enjoyed since 2002, and progress since April is perhaps record-breaking.

    Still, this time the Lib Dems aren’t sucking up dissatisfied Tory VI% as in most of the last few decades, leaving just a slender lead for Corbyn.

  42. Barny/Carfew,

    The GE meant that may sitting Labour MPs were endorsed and made PPC by the NEC without any trigger mechanisms applying. This would have happened regardless of how ‘controlled’ the NEC.

    An analysis of candidates selected at short notice would be interesting as I think in many cases Momentum has not started to organise for the process yet.

    With few actual de-selections likely it is the candidatures in winnable (esp currently help) seats as they come up which is more relevant and was how NuLabour changed the PLP over 15 years or so from the 97-10 GEs.

  43. oops (esp currently held) of course!!

  44. @Jim Jam

    There is a benefit in trying to distinguish between different kinds of factors influencing perceptions.

    It’s tempting for some to focus on Corbyn’s personality, because if it IS down to that, they don’t have to worry that actually the real reason people are enthusiastic is the policies. And also, that it may soon revert once Corbyn is gone.

    You almost never hear those who backed Blair and his descendants mention policy, they want to talk personality. (Occasionally they might mention that Nulab upped spending in some ways, and that’s kinda it, because a fuller examination includes many privatisations, inflated house prices, ATOS, tuition fees, mass immigration and more besides).

    But if you look at POLLING on policy, you can see it might not just be about personality. Was Sanders in the States all about Personality? There us a pattern here, of rejecting liberalism, evidenced also in Brexit. To focus on just personality is to evade what’s going on.

    Remember, Corbyn was nominated by the MPs, the membership clung to whoever offered what they’d been hoping for. Maybe they project certain virtues onto him, but that simply shows how keen they might be to see some decent jobs, house prices, bills etc.

  45. While a significant number of people enjoy inflated house prices, this is such a big deal that Tories can probably count on a bunch of support from those quarters.

    The virtue of QE and help-to-buy etc. was they it helped these gains spread into the marginals in the Midlands. The problem comes if that gradually becomes a smaller proportion of the whole. What is the rate at which that might change?

  46. @jimJam

    Yes, the while selection process is summat of a mystery too me, so I do find it interesting when you, Syzygy and others chat about it. Part of it seems to be the parachuting from the centre, however that was achieved, but then there is also what Syzygy talked about: the “invasion of the bodysnatchers” thing, where the rank and file in some local associations changed also. It’s kinda interesting to see the response as these more liberal types see Corbynistas come in and take the party away from them in turn….

  47. CMJ

    It seems that the link to the review article expires in every 24 hours, so if the link doesn’t work, just search for “An overview of robust Bayesian analysis”

  48. Ssimon

    “Still, this time the Lib Dems aren’t sucking up dissatisfied Tory VI% as in most of the last few decades, leaving just a slender lead for Corbyn”

    Looks very much like Cable is positioning the dems to do that. They are saying they will vote with the Tories, but only on popular things lol.

    But you can definitely see they are positioning themselves as a soft right anti Brexit party. They are also sensing that the labour vote is rock solid and their best hope for gains is peeling off soft remain Tory voters. They realize that they made a bad mistake trying to hover up labour votes at the last election.

  49. Can the Tories/DUP really make Brexit happen, passing all relevant legislation through both houses, as well as gaining consent from devolved Parliaments/assembly’s ?

    I really can’t see it happening. In theory Jeremy Corbyn would whip his MP’s behind any Brexit votes he can support. But the reality is that Labour will want to pass many amendments and may well gain support of some Tory MP’s. The votes would then be very close.

    Jeremy Hunt today managed to get Brexit related notes seen on camera, where there was a point about Brexit causing issues with staffing. Doctors and Nurses from EU mainland countries might decide to leave the UK. Tories against Brexit or against Brexit on damaging terms are going to be openly campaigning against the position of the Government.

  50. new thread

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