A quick update on two new voting intention polls yesterday.

Opinium in the Observer has topline figures of CON 39%(-5), LAB 45%(+4), LDEM 5%(-3), UKIP 5%(+3). Changes are since the general election. Jeremy Corbyn’s net approval ratings are now substantially better than Theresa May’s – 31% approve of how May is doing her job, 51% disapprove; 42% approve of how Corbyn is doing his job, 38% disapprove. Full tabs are here.

Survation meanwhile has topline figures of CON 41%(nc), LAB 40%(-4), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 2%(nc), the first poll since the general election to show the Conservatives ahead (if the changes since the last poll look odd, it’s because the Tory share is actually up by almost a point, but it’s lost in the rounding, and the share for “other” parties is up three points). Full tabs for that are here.


252 Responses to “Latest Opinium and Survation polls”

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  1. @ CR

    ‘ A left wing revolution isn’t possible in the UK but a right wing one is’

    I agree and that is a much more scary prospect than John McDonnell fantasies.

  2. Anyone remember General Walter Walker? That’s the closest I can remember that we came to a right-wing coup.

  3. PeteB
    There were tanks (scimitars) at Heathrow during the mid 70s. That was never adequately explained.
    1650s? The Cromwellian killjoys were right wing, the radical progressive elements in the army were busy setting out the first coherent statement of individual liberty in this country in the Putney debates.
    ( All firmly tongue in cheek) .

  4. Trigguy

    Next year is also the 100 year anniversary of votes for the working class. People forget that the working class fought for hundreds of years for the vote and the establishment moved only slowly to extend the franchise. Until 1918 there were still property restrictions on the right to vote which meant that half of the male population still didn’t have the right to vote as well as 100% of women. Voting rights were “gifted” to working class men in recognition of their contribution in the great war. Not because the establishment was worried about lots of men with military training!! Lol. Votes for women were “gifted” in recognition of their work in the home front. Not because the establishment was worried that women would refuse to go back to their kitchens and give up good paying jobs for their menfolk!! Lol.

    Never forget peterloo

  5. CR
    Nothing to do with the Suffragettes then?

  6. RJW

    Wasn’t so long ago that a senior military person warned that the army would be forced to step in if Corbyn was elected. Of course we shouldn’t take such stuff seriously, it doesn’t reflect a widely held view amongst the top brass, lol.

  7. @CR

    So, to be fair, we should just exclude non-working class men for a few hundred years. Perfect.

    But seriously, and without wanting to start a gender war, why is it that the EU Leave/Remain choice is so heavily split along gender lines? I don’t think I can suggest of a simple explanation, even along non-PC gender stereotypes lines.

  8. Trigguy
    I can give you a non-PC version (not that it’s my own view of course). Men are more willing to take a risk and embrace change, whereas ladies, bless their little hearts, are more likely to want to stay with the nice safe cosy status quo.

  9. Thought this was a droll opening to an article in the Guardian:

    “Ukip is facing potential takeover by far-right forces”.

  10. SYZYGY

    Genuinely had no idea you were dotty also. I use them myself for the same reasons as you do.

    However, for some they seem to be de rigeur for the close of every single post – and quite often some of the paragraphs that make up the post.

    When things become habitual I find that – like shouting or Jeremy Paxman’s interviewing technique – the law of diminishing returns applies.

    Your own use though must be effectively subtle – like wot mine is…..

    [In fact I don’t even know if you go for the traditional three-dot motif or for my own preferred option, which is to use them to fill out the last line………………………………………………………………………………..]

  11. @ Paul

    I think I tend to go for 4 or 5 but it’s more about what feels right …. so may be one day I’ll manage as impressive a sequence as your …………………………………………………………………… ones

  12. Where have the 2017 Tories gone?

    Looking at Opinium we see the same trend we saw with Panelbase

    Only 77% who voted Conservative a few short weeks ago will still vote for them.

    The rest? 12% undecided, 6% UKIP, 2% Labour

    And of all the undecided voters, 58% voted leave in the referendum, 32% voted remain.

    The evidence is quite clear, a large percentage of the Conservative 2017 vote was merely a vote to secure Brexit, these are not traditional Tories and it seems unlikely they will vote for the Conservatives next time if they are already undecided.

    Lynton Crosby actually did a really good job rebranding the party the “Theresa May” party to get these non conservatives to vote Tory. But it looks like it was a one time deal. Once Brexit is done, they are gone, Conservative no more.

  13. I looked at the Survation tables to see if I could see a similar trend, the answer is no.

    I suspected the reverse of the Conservative problem may be happening to Labour – many remain voters voted for Labour in this election as a least bad option to the Tories’ “no deal is better than a bad deal”, and the lack of leadership support for the vote last week would have disappointed many of them.

    But no, the biggest swing there was 2017 Labour voters moving Tory. I can’t see remain voters moving in that direction, so there doesn’t appear to be any fallout of Labour remain voters yet.

    Perhaps Survation with its Tory lead crossbreaks in Scotland and Wales is just a statistical blip as other have indicated. Will have to wait for more polls.

  14. I would really like to see more scottish westminster polling. I think Scotland may be the key to the next election given the unusually high number of Tory seats for recent times.

  15. Colin,
    “Corbyn’s economic & industrial prescription worries me a lot. But McDonnell scares me to death.”

    Have people noticed that since attempts to ridicule Corbyn out of office have failed, his opponents are now trying the same trick on Cotbyn’ supporters. “Ok, seems corbyn isnt so bad after all, but look at his team…” Its the same negative campaigning tactic rather than having a positive alternative policy.

  16. Richard

    Is this of help to answer your question?

    Consequently, it was amongst working class voters and in predominantly working class constituencies that the Conservatives advanced most. According to Lord Ashcroft’s polling data, Conservative support was up twelve points amongst working class “DE” voters than it was in 2015, but by only four points higher amongst professional and managerial “AB” voters. Equally, Conservative support increased by nine points on average in the 30% most working class seats in England and Wales, but by only one point in the 25% most middle class. In short, the divergence between Remain and Leave voters served to cut across the
    traditional class base of Britain’s two-party system.”

    http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/news/One-year-on.pdf

  17. Some parts of the media, including the BBC, have suggested that there is now a split in the Cabinet over the kind of Brexit desired.

    There always was that division within the party.

    “A survey of MPs conducted by Ipsos MORI between October and December 2016 asked Conservative MPs about the tradeoffs
    that may be required in any negotiations (see figure). The plurality response [34%] of Conservative MPs is in the top right-hand corner of the graph – prioritising both controlling immigration and not paying money into the EU budget over access to the single market – but with significant minorities who took a different stance.

    The same survey found that a full quarter of Conservative MPs believed that it would not be honouring the referendum result if the UK ended up staying in the single market after the Brexit negotiations; just over a third said it would be impossible to say it was honouring the vote if the UK still paid into the EU budget. Almost 60% said that they would not see it as honouring the terms
    of the referendum if immigration from within the EU could not be controlled.

    Passing the detailed Brexit legislation through parliament was already a hard enough task before the election; by the morning of 9 June, it had got a lot harder.”

    http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/news/One-year-on.pdf

  18. The fall in Scottish turnout and in the SNP in my view can be largely attributed to the SNPs implacable position on Brexit, not on Indyref2. Over 20% of the SNP voters in 2015 voted for Brexit. To vote SNP in 2017 would effectively support the reversal of that. Just as CON in the election undoubtedly gained some votes from those who wanted to assure Brexit (and didn’t trust the other parties in this respect), then the SNP probably lost some (mostly to DNV) .

    That suggests to me that if Brexit proceeds some of that vote will come back tot the SNP and that CON will lose some to whoever makes the best pitch for it

  19. Theresa May has decided to go ?

    Is this rumour fake ?

    You could understand it, if TM decided she had enough of cabinet ministers openly plotting, whilst apparently offering her full support. It seems obvious that Boris Johnson wants to be PM and Michael Gove thinks he is still popular in the Tory party. Most Tories must be thinking that having a wounded leader is a risk and that it makes it very difficult to negotiate Brexit, as well as deal with all of the other important issues.

    Would not surprise me, if TM decided to stand down very soon, even if not today.

    I don’t think the Tories would take a hit in regard to polling, as i think the current problems are mostly factored in already.

  20. Good Morning all from a warm Bournemouth East.

    COLIN and DANNY.
    Corbyn is not in office at the moment.

  21. @r huckle

    now dont be a tease. where are you hearing this?

    Would not surprise me though – i cant see any reason why she would want to stay on – with the deal with DUP/UDA signed off and the queens speech delivered, her purpose now seems to be a political skip for the tories dump all their toxic waste in the hope it all gets carted off when she leaves.

  22. @Reggieside

    Those cats in Downing Street have been meowing to the press. Perhaps they are still loyal to Cameron and Osborne, with the new residents not giving them enough treats.

    My prediction is that Theresa May will announce next week that she will stand down as leader/PM, once the Tory party have selected a new leader.

  23. Well we now have:
    – May and Gove v Hammond and Johnson re ‘hard’ v ‘soft’ Brexit stances
    – Davis allowing direct briefing against the PM’s negotiating stance
    – May’s pre-planned flounce from the Brexit talks over the ‘divorce settlement’ being leaked by her own team and thereby killed (as well as making her look stupid)
    – Boris and Gove and Greening v May and Hammond on public sector pay increases.

    Surely at some stage this mess has to start to impact VI – governments that are in chaos can often stumble on for a while, but they do tend to get punished in terms of VI (and actual votes) eventually…

  24. @SAM
    with respect to you two last posts:

    The problem with brexit is that leaving the EU is nebulous: it could mean being in the EEA EFTA customs union all the way to the WTO rules

    The second problem is that much of the article 50 only deals with the break up of the UK from the EU and whilst there is a passage about the future relationship that will not be resolved until way down the line.

    None of this was part of the campaign indeed the Leave campaign said things like no one would leave the single market and indeed after the referendum was won this interview with Daniel Hannan was hilarious

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5jTRoySFfo

    The reality is that now looking at the polls for brexit we face a problem for all political parties to square the circle the expectations are pretty brutal here some polls have 50% people whom voted leave want immigration at 0 not even the amount that clearly we cannot get to now (100k.)

    I believe there will be no agreement since it will be political suicide think of the votes in the west of scotland won by Tories for example essentially May’s buffer against losses in England. Look at the labour constituencies they were able to turn in places like Walsall North. You may even find a resurgence of UKIP.

    There needs to be a frank discussion with the electorate and I personally think we are pretty divided no matter what decision we tak.

    As to Northern Ireland, The DUP are a complete disaster, I worked for a start up in belfast for 2 years and went to a meeting with all parties represented and I came away with a view that the SF were a reasonable set of politicians and the DUP were pretty much off their rocker. I believe the fact they did well basically pulling votes from the more moderate UUP would mean much of the stupidness they want to do will just continue. They are a bit like Trump in never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity and much of the pettiness does grate. it make for long and arduous negotiations even the UUP hated them with a passion. UUP always felt they could get a deal with the SF and that they could make politics work smoothly but we are no in an age in NI where the politics is basical becomes more tribal

    The funny thing was that Invest Northern Ireland was a disaster but the local EU office was excellent so it pretty much sums up our problems.

  25. @ BIGFATRON

    I am not sure that it will make much of a difference to be honest it will be interesting for people involved in politics but to be honest it is not much to write home about.

    The major point comes in the autumn. The problem is that the EU publishes their position papers in public which is problematic for the UK government in that there is no way to message concessions as horsetrading. it is why the whole keep our card close to our chest comes in.

    I do think the rhetoric will calm down now as there is no advantage in it unless they really think there is no deal to be had since I am not sure that it is for EU consumption but for UK only consumption and I feel that it is treating the UK electorate like children whom could be fooled

    My worry is party politics and winning an election is more important than the deal and the aim would most probably to have a transitional deal that last for ever until the electorate change their minds. I feel that is the problem for both Tories and Labour at the moment.

    Intellectually there is only one consistent approach if we are to believe the whole take back control agenda and that is back to WTO and negotiate a FTA. anything else is loss of ‘sovereignty’

  26. Is cable preparing the ground for a new ConDem coalition? I know that tuition fees hurt the dems badly but to parrot the Tory line on tuition fees so exactly looks like more than just defending the Dems U-turn. Or is he just positioning the party to hover up remain Tory votes?

  27. This might well be what is holding up a return to power sharing in NI

    “NotNowJohnny Gopher • 12 hours ago

    You would think there wouldn’t be a problem but you could be wrong. Remember we had one DUP Minister in the last Assembly who removed the use of the Irish language from all departmental publications, from the departmental logo and even renamed a boat with an Irish name with an English name. There was no need to do any of this. Then we had another DUP Minister who removed funding from the Irish language that had already been allocated in act of such folly that his own party colleagues, no lovers of the Irish language themselves, instructed him to reverse it. When you have people in power this opposed to the language you do get problems where you think there shouldn’t be.”

  28. @Bigfatron

    Yes and when Cabinet discipline breaks down as it is at the moment it is also a signal to the backbenches that the Government is there for the taking.

  29. PETE B

    I can give you a non-PC version (not that it’s my own view of course). Men are more willing to take a risk and embrace change, whereas ladies, bless their little hearts, are more likely to want to stay with the nice safe cosy status quo.

    Well it might not be PC, but more important it isn’t correct. Because if it was, then women would always have been much more pro-Remain when they voted last June. But there doesn’t seem to be any evidence of this – in post-Referendum analysis from Ashcroft and others, there was very little difference. Maybe one point at most and that continued to be the situation until recently.

    For example asked by YouGov In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union as recently as late April

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2r8a7e4n22/TimesResults_170426_VI_Trackers_W.pdf#page=6

    men were 45-43 for wrong, women 44-43 (the general numbers have hovered around half and half since the Referendum) and there was no real difference.

    However the most recent time this question was asked (f/w 12-13 Jun):

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9pum7c5c4j/AnthonyResults_170613_Brexit_W.pdf

    though the headline was still evenly split, the gender gap was quite big: men 50-42 right; women 48-38 wrong. It had started widening during the campaign but this, as discussions started about what Brexit would mean to ordinary people, was the biggest yet and Survation might confirm this.

    Maybe women are just better at admitting they were wrong.

  30. Kitsune
    ‘A mere 5 weeks before the GE, there were local council elections in Scotland, with every seat up for grabs. The SNP received a record vote share, won a record number of seats, became the biggest or equal biggest party in a record number of councils including the 4 major cities, and were 5 times as far ahead of the second-place SCons as they had been ahead of the then second-placed SLab in 2012.

    That doesn’t look like “fallling out of love” to me.’

    But even in the local elections in early May the SNP underperformed expectations – failing to gain outright control of Glasgow being an example – and Labour exceeded them. Those results persuaded me that the SNP would struggle to win 40 seats at the General Election – and that Labour could end up with 4 or 5.

  31. Fortunately for the dems this is coming out now and not before GE15. They would have lost all their seats

    https://www.indy100.com/article/nick-clegg-was-offered-a-pass-on-a-rise-in-tuition-fees-by-george-osborne-and-apparently-turned-it-down–WJQXsBQkLg

  32. PAUL
    ‘my own preferred option, which is to use them to fill out the last line………………………………………………………………………………..]

  33. @CR
    If that is true then it is inexcusable of Clegg – that the amount of damage done to both his party and to the country was not just self-inflicted, but actually avoidable would genuinely shock me.

    From what I can tell most LDems are hoping that Jo Swinson feels able to step up after a couple of years’ apprenticeship and they can put the whole sorry saga behind them.

  34. Gathering storm clouds?

    Following Friday’s data showing the sharpest slow down in household disposable incomes since 1976 (yikes!) this morning’s PMI data for manufacturing has shown a sharper than expected fall. The sector is still expanding, but the drop has rattled nerves. If the service sector comes in below expectations as well, then it looks like things are on the turn.
    Meanwhile, the Eurozone looks fairly robust.

    As I’ve said before, comparing economic data from countries X and Y at a specific time to make judgements about comparative performance is a bit of a mugs game, as economics is as much about timing as speed and direction of travel. A longer term view is always needed, rather than selecting an arbitrary point in time.

    However, politically it’s a different thing. If the Brexit talks are held against a backdrop of us doing badly and them doing well, that will make a difference to perceptions.

  35. SYZYGY

    I find the larger number increases the sense of understated wisdom.

    One is definitely not enough [obviously] and three still feels a bit weedy.

    Four or five seems a good compromise I suppose and also saves time – which can then be used for ….. well……..other stuff.

  36. @Paul Croft, Syzygy

    The correct number of dots is three. Anything less is a typing mistake, anything more is just over-indulgence…

  37. BIGFATRON

    Who wrote them rules?

    And what’s wrong with over-indulgence anyway????????????????

  38. Blimey !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    There really ARE rules. How bizarre. Not only a three dots rule but the three dots have to have a space in between them.

    Or wot I ask?

    And what happened to spontaneity…………………………………… . . …

    ?

  39. We need a poll on dots.

    This, for example, is rubbish:

    ” Ellipsis: A set of three dots (…), or corresponding symbol or mark. It just means that she couldn’t think of anything more to say.”

  40. @ Paul

    Three …. is definitely weedy and that there is some authoritarian convention (see Bigfatron) seems completely at odds with the chatty intention of the dots. Clearly, this is a hitherto unrecognised sign signifier of the other’s position on the liberal/authoritarian axis…. and enough to drive me into the 5+ camp.

  41. chrislane1945,
    “Corbyn is not in office at the moment.”

    He is, you know. He is elected leader of the labour party and leader of her majesty’s oppostion, whichpost he holds by virtue of both personal and party electoral support, and for which he gets paid by the state. He and other shadow ministers are entiled ex-oficio to be advised about various secret government papers.

  42. @ Bardin1 at 8.01

    I agree with your assessment; I think that’s why the focus now is on promoting a case for independence separate from Brexit. We’ll see how that works out.

    @ Graham at 11.25

    Your expectation of the GE results was of course correct (an under-estimate, even). I can see why Labour supporters believe this is the start of a return to “normal service”, but I’m still not convinced.

    2015 was an anomaly – an extreme example of the effects of FPTP. 50 seats in Scotland changed hands, which is unprecedented. All of them went to the SNP; Labour lost 40 out of 41, which is also unprecedented. It wasn’t reasonable to expect that to happen again.

    But the 2017 results can be looked at in (at least) two ways. Some people will see this as the beginning of a revival for SLab (and maybe also the LDs).

    It’s also possible to emphasize instead that in the last 3 elections (2016 Holyrood, 2017 council and Westminster), SLab was pushed into 3rd place by the Tories (at Holyrood they had a slightly higher vote share, which translated into slightly fewer seats). That’s surely not good from their point of view. That they managed to increase their Westminster representation is a silver lining in a pretty dark cloud.

    That they didn’t increase their number of votes tarnishes the siliver somewhat (and although they “out-performed” at the council elections, that’s partly because of the voting system and party decisions about how many candidates to stand in each ward, and partly because of how very low those expectations were – they still lost a huge number of councillors and all the councils they had controlled – they’ve remained in power in some via agreements with other parties; iIn 2012 they’d been the biggest party in half the 32 councils – now no party has a majority in any).

    So overall, this just shows how the same data can be viewed in such different ways. SLab are clutching at one set of straws and the SNP at another.

  43. Kitsune

    While labour and the SNP are clutching at straws the Tories are powering through the middle

  44. PAUL
    I do find it all a bit,,,well…linear.
    In my Rupert Bear Annual you could, if your little sister didn’t get to it first and scrawl all over it,, join up the dots and make a teddy bear.
    What you might do is address your posts with a dotty version of the person to whom it is address, say Badger for Old Nat, Ratty for Carfrew, To….
    Well,any, way, you get tthe idea

  45. SYZYGY

    “Three dots bad: five [or more] dots good.”

    I am worried that this might not catch on at rallies and demonstrations.

    Which is a shame…… .. .

  46. @Alex

    I personally don’t believe that the economic situation in the UK will make much of a difference either way as both side know economies are cyclical and when the referendum result was announced we had a fallin the pound some gnashing of teeth but the sky did not fall in I believe the EU position has not changed from the moment we left until know. It has almost been monotonic 4 freedoms indivisible, EU citizens should have full EU rights progress on A50 issues before talks on trade deal.

    What has changed is basically our perceived leverage. has it changed because we have do not have a 100 seat majority for a party? I think not. I think it is worse because we have less options have not realised the the EU are serious and that more importantly time is not on our side.

    There is blog in the FT by David Allen Green (he is a Brexit supporter ) his view is that the UK is unprepared for the negotiation and the detail of brexit and that is the biggest problem. We have concentrated in posturing and secrecy whereas interestingly the EU have been open and direct.

    it was always clear that the economy may slow down. We have had non stop questions about the country’s basic shape for 4 years now. The UK seems like it is drunk stumbling from position to position and slowly circling to a reality. I think the EU is waiting for us in the middle

  47. Much discussion on ellipses today… We clearly need more polling.

    How many times has the government changed its mind or indicated a different stance on public sector pay rises now? If they had just gone and raised them would it have been good for VI, assuming all these contradictions and u-turns are negative. (Maybe we shouldn’t assume u-turns are a bad thing? The conventional wisdom seems to have been wrong a lot these past 2.5 years.)

  48. cambridge rachel

    “powering through the middle”?

    “Second, the party’s new MPs have an opportunity to think about the Union. The intellectual case for the Union took a battering at the Supreme Court last year when the UK Government’s lawyer reasserted a Diceyan interpretation of Westminster’s constitutional position. Most notably, he argued that the Sewel Convention could be ignored at will. The Scottish Conservatives now have a chance to make the case for a more plural interpretation of the constitution and to push the UK Government to engage more constructively with last year’s House of Lords Constitution Committee report on the territorial constitution. Intergovernmental relations, for instance, are ripe for reform and new MPs might usefully promote some incremental ideas in this area (for instance, from their own Adam Tomkins). What does the Union look like when Scottish Conservatives get the chance to shape it? If the answer is ‘no different from now’, then they might find it much harder to defend in future.”
    http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/what-next-scottish-tories

  49. Sam S

    They are preparing the ground for a U-turn. The question is how to change course without looking weak or without destroying the rational for austerity. I notice that the Tories are really trying and succeeding in pushing a narrative that the pay cap was mostly about rebalancing pay rates between the public and private sectors. Now they are saying that the private sector has caught up so the pay cap is no longer necessary. I’m amazed by how quickly the BBC and other media outlets have been to accept this narrative, it’s really “ministry of truth” stuff.

    But this emphasises the Tory approach, everything is divisive. The young against the old, private sector against the public sector, migrants against natives, the educated against the less well off. The whole basis of Tory power is and has always been to divide people along any lines except class, everything is fair game……race, gender, sexuality, religion, education(but not public v state)anything at all and if something stops working jump on another division. Divide and rule, divide and rule

  50. Anent…..s. One particular use of …s is within quotation marks when the writer wishes to exclude part of the quotation and tell readers s/he is doing so. “For example, I might write this…… and then this. What the dots indicate are my unprintable views of most of the posters on this site, particularly……… and ……”

    …s can also be used to allow the reader to draw inferences about what s/he is reading, for example, whether I am off my trolley……

    …s should not be used in place of – – – -s

    ……Same to you….

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