A quick update on two new voting intention polls yesterday.

Opinium in the Observer has topline figures of CON 39%(-5), LAB 45%(+4), LDEM 5%(-3), UKIP 5%(+3). Changes are since the general election. Jeremy Corbyn’s net approval ratings are now substantially better than Theresa May’s – 31% approve of how May is doing her job, 51% disapprove; 42% approve of how Corbyn is doing his job, 38% disapprove. Full tabs are here.

Survation meanwhile has topline figures of CON 41%(nc), LAB 40%(-4), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 2%(nc), the first poll since the general election to show the Conservatives ahead (if the changes since the last poll look odd, it’s because the Tory share is actually up by almost a point, but it’s lost in the rounding, and the share for “other” parties is up three points). Full tabs for that are here.


252 Responses to “Latest Opinium and Survation polls”

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  1. Ok. So, the current polls are deemed inaccurate. So, pretty much like the polls before the election then.

  2. TURK

    I have to disagree on Corbyn. I think it is the backbenchers who will come to grief -or to heel.

    The Far Left won’t lose control-not now they have come this far.

    For the Tories- I broadly agree with your prescription. So the Autumn Statement looms large.
    But I do fear that those in the Cabinet who think that “improving the offer” to the young will make them vote Tory have completely failed to understand why the young don’t vote for them. They have to show that they are not hard hearted , unfair & devoted to the interests of the rich & powerful.

    And every time a Conservative Councillor from K&C opens there mouth I really cringe that this is the image of the Parliamentary .

    The tragedy in all this is that TM’s Manifesto set out to address “intergenerational unfairness” !!!. How about that for a cock up?

  3. Mike Pearce
    ‘ Labour still finished third in Scotland in a three horse race. Yes Labour went forward in vote share and number of seats but frankly it would have been difficult to do have done much worse. ‘

    Everybody expected Labour to do worse! They won not far off double the vote share expected earlier in the year and won 7 seats when many commentators seriously doubted they would hang on to Edinburgh South. Next time Labour is poised to be comfortably the largest party there with more than 30 seats – and the SNP will struggle to win 15. Post the May local elections I predicted that the SNP would struggle to exceed 40 seats this year and suggested that Labour could manage 4 or 5. In the event, I was too pessimistic!

  4. JIM JAM

    I bow to your superior knowledge of the Labour Party.

    But I stick to my view that JC/JM will use “The Street” as the main vehicle of their efforts to oust the Tories , and work to ensure their “Project” never again loses its grip on the Party-including the PLP.

    No one under 60 years of age remember 1974 to 1979. And the Unions can’t wait to get there again.

  5. GRAHAM

    Whether Labour do return to former glories in Scotland remains to be seen but ultimately they underperformed in Scotland compared to England and Wales. It proved crucial and allowed the Tories back in. Quite how Dugdale thought it in any way appropriate to suggest voting Tory to oust the SNP is utterly beyond me and frankly reprehensible given that the Tories would have found it impossible to remain in power if they had ended up with three or four seats less.

  6. JIM Jam.
    I agree with your post about the vast majority of the CLP members will back the current members of parliament most of whom are doing very well with their members.

    Keir Starmer is doing well, tactically, for the Party’s position on EU, allowing the Tories to fight each other, and putting the Party in a position to oppose damaging Hard Brexit.

    If, like in 1990, the Tories pick a popular leader, however, I think that the Tories will be stronger.

    Time will tell.

    COLIN: Hello to you You point to an important matter; the Tory vote is at the moment ageing.

    I declare my interest! I have been a public sector worker since September 1978.

  7. Colin

    The problem with your last post is that you assume that the processes happening inside the labour party are under anyone’s control or that they are capable of being controlled. Corbyn is riding a tiger as much as anyone else, if he tries to go 1970s hard left he will get bitten.

  8. @ Mike Pearce 4.27 pm

    You can`t just count one side of coins and ignore the other sides

    Kezia`s support for voting Tory was made in return for having Tory votes for Labour candidates.

    These votes might have been small in number, less than a thousand, but could have won some seats for Labour from SNP.

    In several Scottish councils there are ruling coalitions of Labour and Tory councillors, relations between the two parties being made easy because the Labour ones are usually not left-wing and the Tory ones are not TM`s sort of far-right neo-libs.
    .

  9. President Juncker revealed that he does not own a smart phone: uses an old Nokia. So do I. People often ask “how do you live without a proper phone”: on the rare occasions I need one I free ride on other people’s. There has been an inconclusive discussion of the effects of smart phones on cognitive functions. At least they distract people; A few years ago,10% of us read on trains, in waiting-rooms, etc, while 90% stared into space; a blankness that I always found slightly disturbing. Now 2% read: 98% stare at phones
    I find the internet bad for me. Here I am writing this nonsense when I should be finishing G. Woodcock’s superb Anarchism (1962). The anarchists’ solutions are pretty daffy: though their lives were amazing. Inter alia, he reminds one of the British state’s remarkable former tolerance of foreign radicals, anarchists, revolutionaries.
    But what a disappointment the “proletariat” have been to left-wing intellectuals. The latter thought that when the workers gained leisure & security they would develop the same interests as, well, left-wing intellectuals. Anything but.

  10. Truth is the current situation is a dream for Labour from their position in April. It was widely assumed after the election was called they would have a summer of civil war after a disastrous election with possibly a new party emerging.

    Suddenly they are ahead in most polls with Corbyn gaining a spectacular turnaround in his personal ratings. Theresa May on the other hand has a negative rating after losing the Tories majority.

    It is difficult to predict what will happen next andmuch depends on the Tories ratings. I suspect they will stick with May until after next years local elections unless they feel she is doing irreparable damage to their prospects.

    They will then hope a new leader will enhance their ratings as John Major did and not like the Gordon Brown effect for Labour in 2010.

  11. Truth is the current situation is a dream for Labour from their position in April. It was widely assumed after the election was called they would have a summer of civil war after a disastrous election with possibly a new party emerging.

    Suddenly they are ahead in most polls with Corbyn gaining a spectacular turnaround in his personal ratings. Theresa May on the other hand has a negative rating after losing the Tories majority.

    It is difficult to predict what will happen next andmuch depends on the Tories ratings. I suspect they will stick with May until after next years local elections unless they feel she is doing irreparable damage to their prospects.

  12. TOM

    Fully agreed. It’s easy to forget that a couple of months ago there was talk of Tory landslide with May riding high on huge approval ratings and Corbyn largely derided. All bets are off as to where we will be in six months time let alone 2022

  13. Colin

    I’m not to sure the Tories should try reaching out to the under thirty vote that age group has been a bit of lost cause to the Tories since the sixties. They would be better occupied concentrating on the employed over thirty group part of that must be a modest rise in taxation to fund housing and pay rises in the three services.
    I’m no longer involved in Politics but at branch level I keep in contact with my daughter apart from running her farm she is a Tory Councillor speaking to her local MP she is of the opinion that another GE is unlikely in the near future as is any challenge to TM the political situation however is very fluid and Tory back benchers have realised that the balance of power has moved in some respects to them but in truth nobody at present can say how things will pan out or when the next GE will be.
    On different point there is a lot of talk apparently amongst the MP’s outside Corbyns inner circle regarding his evangelical form of socialism which requires a sort of quasi preaching more or less in the style found in a Victorian temperance meeting now if we have learnt anything from politics we can certainly say the public don’t always like being preach to.
    I know we disagree but I still think the biggest threat to Corbyn is from within his own party in the long term of course because he is a populist politician then the longer he is kept from power the more likely that populist view will begin to fade at the moment he is the darling of the media but as we have just witnessed just when you think your riding the crest of a 20% wave of popularity it doesn’t take much for it all to come crashing down.

  14. Not that it matters at all but my view is that Kezia Dugdale will, with a little time, become top girl in the Scottish Female Leaders’ competition

  15. TURK

    @” They would be better occupied concentrating on the employed over thirty group part of that must be a modest rise in taxation to fund housing and pay rises in the three services.”

    I agree

    On Corbyn -there is a logic to what you suggest. That he can’t promise that he will topple May’s government & somehow install his “Government in Waiting” for an unlimited period of time before some lack of credibility creeps in .

    But my impression of the True Believers is that he can do no wrong. I think they will simply heap all their frustration on “The Tories” for daring to “squat” in Downing Street when The People demand that they go.

    Remember that McDonnell remark – “Democracy isn’t working” . I think that is just an expression of the whole extra-Parliamentary dynamic which JC/JM believe to be the true expression of the Public Will.

    Certainly -until they gain control of the Leadership process-the current incumbents have an awful lot invested in the person of JC.

    Its just that I think there is no more mileage for Cons in attacking him . He is Teflon coated . They have to show a kinder face-whilst actually critiquing the Labour Tax & Spend Plan-something that didn’t actually happen in the GE Campaign .

  16. Mike Pearce
    ‘Whether Labour do return to former glories in Scotland remains to be seen but ultimately they underperformed in Scotland compared to England and Wales’

    That rather depends on where you start from. Compared with 2015 Labour’s 3% gain in vote share is modest and much less than experienced in England & Wales. On the other hand, Labour polled 12%/13% higher than what polls were suggesting in March /April – and some 6% higher than implied by the local elections – which is much more comparable to what we saw across GB.
    I strongly suspect that Labour was held back by the widespread perception that it was in a distant third place and effectively ‘out of the race’ in several seats where the party had belatedly become competitive again. In such seats pro-Union former Labour voters misdirected themselves on a significant scale and voted Tory as the most effective anti-SNP option. Next time they are likely to switch back and combined with further erosion of SNP support that will make a 35% Labour vote share a very realistic prospect.

  17. Graham,

    You’ve articulated there pretty much my guess as to what might happen in the next GE. Of course nobody knows what might transpire but the SNP lost more than 10 percentage points in the last GE, with most of their majorities being pretty small. It takes only a relatively small swing to nearly wipe out the SNP back to levels they were at in the 2010-15 parliament (which I believe was 6 seats). Labour would be overwhelmingly the prime beneficiary.

  18. @ Analyst, Graham, Mike Pearce

    One aspect that none of you has mentioned – perhaps because you don’t agree with me that it is important – is that in Scotland, unlike everywhere else, turnout fell with respect to 2015.

    In terms of number of votes, rather than vote share, SLab barely increased their support over the previous election. In the 25 seats where they came second, they totalled fewer votes than in 2015; adding those that they managed to regain (to give a total of 31), the increase overall was 3323 (averaging at 107 votes per seat). Given that Ian Murray increased his majority by nearly 13,000, that’s hardly a stunning success elsewhere.

    So while it’s true that a small swing to SLab would see them capturing several of the now-ultra-marginal SNP seats, it’s also true that a fairly modest increase in the SNP’s ability to get out the vote* could retrieve all their losses (to Lab and possibly LD) in the absence of an explicit unionist alliance (single candidates).

    * I know parties don’t own their voters; I dislike the expressions “Labour voters”, “SNP voters” etc, because they assume people don’t change their minds. But it seems clear that the difference between 2015 and 2017 can largely be attributed to significant numbers of those who voted SNP two years ago staying at home this time. They are not necessarily available for SLab. And that makes last month’s result anything but a triumph for Kezia Dugdale, in my opinion.

    ……….(specially for Paul!)

    As for whether the Scots Tories prevented a Corbyn premiership, the arithmetic in this article seems conclusive:
    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/no-jeremy-corbyn-would-not-be-prime.html

  19. @colin

    enough with the daily mail cheese dreams – im pretty sure that rather than seeking to spark a mass people’s revolution on the streets – the reality is that labour are trying to win the next election by winning more seats than the tories.

    Street campaigning is a part of the same democratic process. A non-violent rally with some rousing speeches is still quite a long way from an angry mob dragging parliamentarians to the guillotine.

    As for the unions – if only they still possessed a fraction of the influence they wielded in the 70s – we’d all be benefiting from higher pay, better pensions and more stable employment.

  20. kitsune

    I wasn’t analysing the past but predicting the future.

    And I am on very firm ground there because it hasn’t happened yet…..

    My view is that Ruth Davidson [future PM – lol] is vastly overrated and Kezia Dugdale similarly underrated – but it’s just a view.

    Nicola Sturgeon was doing fine, but blew it by leaping on yet another referendum as being the new, cunning plan for Scotland.

  21. COLIN
    “my impression of the True Believers is that he can do no wrong”

    The Colin of old and reliable tendency would be pursuing this and a related narrative – now somewhat muted in the blue rinse press – to the tune that the success of the Labour Party in the recent GE has been the effect of a personality cult, supported by a non-parliamentary popularist support movement and by street action – and nothing to do with the clarityand appeal of the Labour manifesto.
    As with other posts from the discomforted wilderness of the Tory revivall movement, this is then the basis of a further proposition that Labour will conduct an opposition to Mrs May’s Government, and hard Brexit and continued austerity,nt through parliamentary action but through mass action on the street and the uniion led economic disruption you alude to from the 70’s.
    I think this is baseless but not without purpose in undermining – as the Murdoch press will no doubt return to doing, when it gets is mojo back – a democratic political movement for needed reform taking place, primarily within the parliamentary processes.
    Why does it have a populist and street basis, and is supported by the unions? It is a reform widely seen as needed in providing the resources which have been stripped away, both from people in need, working people suffering poverty in work andyoung people unable to marry and get affordable housing, but also from the services, institutionsand infrastructure which a decent society and a fair economy on a par with the rest of Europe demand.

  22. REGGIESIDE

    @”As for the unions – if only they still possessed a fraction of the influence they wielded in the 70s – we’d all be benefiting from higher pay, better pensions and more stable employment.”

    Well the first of those three is certainly true !

    As for the rest-are you suggesting I should not take John McDonnell at his word? Surely not.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-mcdonnell-defy-strike-laws-insurrection-tory-social-criminals-try-them-marxist-crisis-of-capitalism-unite-the-resistance_uk_58b5778ee4b060480e0bd257

  23. KITSUNE

    A vote’s a vote for a’that. The perception within SLab is that they will continued to take chunks out of the SLP and are more likely than SCon to replace them in power in Holyrood.

  24. JOHN PILGRIM

    @”nothing to do with the clarityand appeal of the Labour manifesto.”

    I didn’t say that . Indeed I have urged Cons to do what they did not do in the GE Campaign-challenge that Manifesto. There would be no point in doing that if it didn’t have “appeal” !

    I like your ” discomforted wilderness of the Tory revivall movement,” :-)

    Not discomforted John-just Angry.

  25. @ Paul

    Sorry, I didn’t make myself clear! It was the dots that were for you, not the comment about KD!

  26. COLIN
    Thanks. The traditional way of opposing a manifesto is to have a better one. I await it with keen anticipation

  27. I have absolutely no idea if this will ever be read by anybody because, even though I have posted very little on UKPR over the last few weeks, every time I have, it has gone into moderation and been deleted. I am somewhat mystified as to why this may be, especially when reading some comments that have escaped the censor’s knife, but I am aware that the site owner has the ultimate say and is entitled to let through or delete what he likes. C’est la vie.

    Anyway, in an exercise of almost certain futility, I’ll go ahead and say what I intended to say about the two most recent polls. I tend to agree with those who suggest that we shouldn’t take too seriously opinion polls taken so soon after an actual vote has taken place. They add somewhat to the gaiety of the nation, I agree, and generate some debate, but I think they may well be particularly prone to the Bristol lady’s famous observation; “Oh no, not another….!”. Despite the media frenzy about the current state of play at Westminster, I don’t think voting again in a General Election is uppermost in most people’s minds at present and how seriously they are responding to a pollster’s pestering only three weeks after voting for real is, how shall we say, questionable to say the least. So, in essence, some pinches of salt required and while I think there is no doubt that Labour has emerged reinvigorated from June 8th, and the Tories severely bruised and discombobulated, it’s way too early to hang much of a hat on VI polls. Let things play out for a bit is my advice and then see what the polls tell us. Fish need to be fried before tasting and the jolly fryer has only just got going. Way too early, as I say, to test the wind. Put simply, how likely is it that the 42% who voted Tory would have jacked them in inside 22 days? It’s not, is it, and, hey presto, that’s what they’re scoring in the few polls taken in that time. Labour a bit up on their 40%, but not by much. Not ready to be knocked down by a feather on any of this, to be honest.

    The danger for all of us at the moment is to misinterpret what the electorate did on June 8th. The dust is still settling and those who claim to know all its myriad implications are in danger of making politically charged assertions in the heat of either triumph or angry disappointment.

    Life’s a Long Song as Ian Anderson once said!

    :-)

  28. @TOM CHADWICK etc

    Agreed, Labour are in an astonishingly positive position compared to what many (including me) expected 3 months ago but I am afeared that there is nevertheless a lingering appetite for civil war.

    @COLIN
    Re the True Believers. You’re right that they think the Tories are squatting in Downing Street contrary to the will of the people, but they apportion blame for that squarely to Labour party apostates, who would have assured his ascent had they shown him the reverence he merits

  29. Not many apostates Guy, most were never believers at all.

  30. Colin

    Social democrats (and JVS lists the likes of JC and JM among them) are capable of making the most red speeches and follow the most right policies (well, they are already doing it). Their world view is surprisingly close to some of the conservatives, even if they speak very differently.

    It’s probably not your Sunday (or any day) reading, but if you read Chapter III, section 2 (Conservative or Bourgeois Socialism), you will find Corbyn – a mere 170 years later. JM is slightly different.

    Still, JC is just another conservative.

  31. kitsune,

    Good point about turnout, I forgot about this. But I’m sceptical that this was necessarily just to do with ‘SNP voters’ staying at home.

    But accepting this proposition for a moment, let’s analyse the implications of it being true. What would this say about the SNP? It says that Scots are beginning to fall out of love with them to the extent where a huge swathe of their voters can’t even be bothered to vote. What does that say about the SNP’s future? Why did they turn out to vote in such high numbers in 2015 and not now? In my view, this would (perhaps obviously) be due to the surge of engagement post-Indyref. Now that the prospect for independence is becoming unlikely (and, perhaps in the eyes of many Scottish voters, increasingly unwise), the whole purpose of the SNP as an electoral machine begins to fall apart a little bit.

    Of course, Brexit could change everything so nobody knows where we’ll end up in a 5 years time (or whenever the next election is… 5 years is perhaps a bit overly optimistic?), but based on the last year, I don’t think this plays into the SNP’s favour – especially not when a good 1/3 (?) of their voters plumped for Brexit anyway.

    Another thing that should be remembered is that in the weeks and months leading up to the election, Sturgeon’s approval fell quite dramatically, into solid negative territory if I recall correctly. Even Ruth Davidson saw a significant fall, yet Dugdale rose. Based on these numbers it seems reasonable to suggest this was genuinely people switching away from the SNP during the campaign; people who had previously voted for them or intended to.

    You also have to remember that in 2015, the Tories were nothing (15%), and many voters appear to not be tied to a party, so much as being Unionist and therefore anti-SNP. This time, tactical voting for unionists was likely to be in favour of the Tories, rather than Labour. Whereas in 2015 it was, if anything, the opposite: Tory-inclined voters going Labour to try and stem the nationalist tidal wave. As others have stated, this time around Dugdale endorsed voting for the Tories where they were best placed to beat the SNP.

    But again, nobody should be making ‘predictions’ this far out – but I remain inclined to think that if Labour’s vote share increases at the next election nationally, in Scotland there’s a strong chance this could lead to a high number of efficient gains.

  32. Laszlo

    I wonder how many times in history people have looked at one of the leaders of a party and said don’t worry what they say in public may seem a little over the top and undemocratic but if they get into power we can control them.

  33. Laszlo
    That puts a new perspective on things. I previously thought Corbyn just wanted to take us back to the 1970s. Now I find it’s the 1840s! :-)

  34. TURK

    Indeed.

    I have lost track of the number of times JM has shrugged off one of his
    rants as something from his past.

    Corbyn’s economic & industrial prescription worries me a lot.

    But McDonnell scares me to death.

  35. In Scotland does anyone have the breakdown of the demographics of the Scottish vote because I cannot find them anywhere.
    A few things of interest:
    1) Do more young people as percentage vote Con in Scotland with different dynamics or is it older generation vote
    2) Did Labour get more support from young voters because I thought this was an area of strength for SNP. Maybe young voters changing views and less for indy and more for Corbyn mania.

  36. LASZLO

    Thanks.

    I know that you are a devotee of things Communist & seem to have a deep knowledge of it’s history which appears to be some sort of benchmark for you.

    But I have little interest in its minutiae.

  37. Colin

    Dead Ringers do a good McDonnell. The voice isn’t spot on but some of the lines are very amusing.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08w11zk

    I expect this sort of thing will lead to a spell in the Gulag if he ever gets power.

  38. LASZLO
    “JM is slightly different.” And might indeed have advocated civil (and violent?) unrest in the day.

    The dividing point between “legitimate” and criminal or treachorous action against a State was one which Prof Tom Smith (Sir Thomas Broun Smith, QC, FBA, FRSE) explored and taught about. As professor of civil law at CapeTown University, he argued that iliigitimacy of rule or specific illigitimate actions of the State,essentially as denying or harming human rights, were the basis of a legal defense of armed revolt. He repeated this later in the same position at Edinburgh in the drafting of a letter to the Scotsman by a group of academics in the early sixties to protest against the Pass Laws.
    He would I think have defended both the republican armed movement in N.Ireland and their legitimate rise to government, and JM’s right to advocacy of street and unionised disruption, and the public theatre and violence of language which accompanied it, as a path to organised (including parliamentary) opposition to a government which he or others perceived as opposed to or acting against civil rights.

  39. PETEB

    Yes-Investment in Gulags will be a top priority I expect.

  40. kitsune

    Yes, ta very much for the dots which were much appreciated.

    I don’t think you can get enough of the little buggers. As I have said previously, they suggest greater depths in peeps’ posts than closer inspection typically finds any evidence of whatsoever.

    This very post being a prime example…………………………………..

  41. “Dead Ringers do a good McDonnell.”

    “But Kettle Chips are the satanic nuggets of the bourgeoisie, the oppressor of the honest crisp.”

    Couldn’t agree more.

  42. Lol!

  43. We’d better get all the laughs in now, before they are verboten, just like Christmas and Maypole dancing and other fun was banned under their predecessors.

  44. @PETE B
    Yeah it was terrible when Christmas was banned. So terrible that my memory seems to have blanked it out.

  45. My god a lot of dystopian fantasy on here tonight, some people really should engage their brains as well as their imaginations. But let’s humour these outrageous visions of the future.

    Let’s assume that JC and JM are as revolutionary as many here believe. So they win an election and want to recreate the Soviet Union in the UK but how do they go about it? Where is their support for such a vision. Perhaps there are a handful of MPs that support such an idea, but you would need a lot more than a handful of MPs. You would also need the support of a majority of the media, particularly the broadcast media, I can’t see that happening without physical coercion. For that you need the army, how many officers would be willing to order their men to point guns at TV presenters?

    But ok let’s assume that JC and JM achieve all that, what’s the next problem. Are the people going to accept it? Can the govt really control all sources of information, can the govt stop people organising against them? Well to do that the govt would need absolute control over the internet. That’s almost possible on a national level except our economy would collapse very quickly but as events in other countries have shown there are ways around it.

    The basic problem is that for any revolution to succeed it needs significant support in a least some levels of society. A left wing revolution isn’t possible in the UK but a right wing one is

  46. @ Analyst

    I drafted a lengthy reply to your post at 8.57, and then decided it didn’t add anything to the discussion, so I deleted it.

    So I’ll just thank you for your reply and make one comment only.

    A mere 5 weeks before the GE, there were local council elections in Scotland, with every seat up for grabs. The SNP received a record vote share, won a record number of seats, became the biggest or equal biggest party in a record number of councils including the 4 major cities, and were 5 times as far ahead of the second-place SCons as they had been ahead of the then second-placed SLab in 2012.

    That doesn’t look like “fallling out of love” to me. Council elections ought to be about potholes and libraries, not about an independence referendum, which no councillor can instigate or prevent. But that was the issue the SCons, and up to a point the other unionists too, campaigned on almost exclusively. It didn’t garner them extra votes, though the STV system produced some strange results in places.

    Why the difference the following month? Perhaps there will be a return to split voting; we’ll have to wait for another Westminster election to be sure.

  47. Guymonde
    It’s a long time ago, even for my memory. The 1650s I think.

    CR
    My posts were all a bit tongue in cheek, but some of the stuff McD comes out with is quite scary, as Colin says.

  48. PETE B

    Winterval was OK…………in Brum.

  49. @ Paul

    Sorry that you don’t like my …. but clearly you don’t need to read my comments. The dots may suggest to you that the writer thinks that they’ve said something of great depth but I take the affectation as being an attempt to more closely resemble ordinary speech without actually putting in the ‘uumms’ and pauses. In other words, to be less formal. However, it is obviously a personal matter as to what will irritate.

  50. Finally had some time to look at the detailed tables. May be just be me, but I find the Opinium questions about Grenfell to be in very bad taste, so didn’t look at them.

    Anyway, one thing that struck me in the Survation EU polling was the male/female split. Probably been commented on before, but it’s quite striking. We’ve heard something about the GE boost for Labour partly coming from the (youngish) female vote, but it seems to me the EU position is more dramatic. The ‘final’ table 9 suggests Leave/Remain to be a rather surprising 46/54 ish, which might be a bit out. But more interestingly the leave vote is made up of a clear majority of men (54/46), but counterbalanced by a quite different preference for women (37/63). This cross-break is bigger than any of the age group cross-breaks.

    So I strongly feel that as a celebration of 100 years of votes for women, that we should run the next few elections with votes only for women, to make up for all those years that only men could vote.

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