There’s normally a somewhat quite period in terms of voting intention after an election. There’s just been an actual vote, newspapers have blown all their polling budget during the campaign and even pollsters have to have a holiday. Sample quotas and weights all have to be rejigged as well (that applies even when polls have got an election correct – most polls’ quotas or weights include voting at the previous election, so 2015 targets all need replacing with 2017 targets).

We’ve had two Survation polls earlier this month, both showing Labour leads. Yesterday’s Sunday Times also had a new Panelbase poll, their first since the general election, and also showed Labour ahead. Topline figures there are CON 41%(-3), LAB 46%(+5), LDEM 6%(-2), changes are from the actual election result (or at least, the Great British vote share at the general election – the vast majority of opinion polls cover Great Britain only, not Great Britain and Northern Ireland).

It’s an interesting rhetorical question to ponder how much of the shift in public opinion since the election is because of the general election result (Theresa May’s figures have dropped now she is the PM who called a snap election and lost her majority, Jeremy Corbyn’s have shot up now he is a leader who deprived the Tories of a majority when he’d been so widely written off), and how much is the continuation of trends that were already there in the general election campaign? In other words, if the election had been a week later, would the trend towards Labour have continued and would they have been the largest party (or the Tories less able to form a viable government?). We’ll never know for sure.


605 Responses to “Panelbase/Sunday Times – CON 41%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%”

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  1. @Coventree “I cannot believe anyone (Chris Lane) seriously believes that this brings stability… In what way does this bring stability? The country is swinging away from the Conservatives at an almost unprecedented rate”

    This is hyperbolic. Since when did a losing Opposition’s poll rating have anything to do with whether a Government with a majority can govern? And a +5% lead at that.

    Miliband’s Labour regularly had double-digit leads (as high as +16%) over the Tories when they last had to rely on another party to govern and the Tories went on to win an outright majority in 2015.

    Who knows, this Government could last 5 long years! Imagine that!

    In any case, it is clearly in the national interest for us to have an operational government as it negotiates Brexit with the EU. $1 Billion over 2 years is small potatoes to ensure that happens IMO.

  2. @CR

    The extra funds aren’t contingent on the restoration of power sharing. If they don’t let Foster off the hook then there will be direct rule and the UK government will have to bend over backwards to avoid favouring the DUP in distributing the funds. Even equitable distribution of the funding will be subject to legal challenge.

    Mind you, from what I can tell there is going to be a legal challenge to the agreement anyway, on the grounds that it means that the UK government is no longer capable of being “rigorously impartial”.

  3. I know the special political set up in NI is unique, but that apart , this sort of arrangement is the norm in many EU countries where coalition government is unexceptional. All parties to these deals extract a price for their voters.

    This deal will bring stable government if it sustains. If it doesn’t then-and only then , Labour can try a similar deal & see if they can produce a stable government.

    I see McDonnell is doing his usual rally cry-calling The People out on the streets to defy Parliament.

  4. @ Colin
    ” this sort of arrangement is the norm in many EU countries where coalition government is unexceptional.”

    Maybe, but you omit to mention that nearly all EU countries have some sort of PR, which means that Coalitions represent a majority or nearly so; & coalitions are not normally formed in Europe by parties which are living in what are in effect separate cultures and political systems.

  5. AW – could you ask your colleagues to pop a DUP deal question on tomorrow’s “live” YouGov polls. Phrasing will be a little tricky as it might prime (bias) the answer.

    Might well have the chance to ask EU expat question as well as that info is coming out now as well.

    n=2 in Warne household would say the DUP deal was just a little on the too expensive side and will probably cause as much of a headache for CON as it has solved. It also sets a bad precedent with EU that we’ll agree to bad deals rather than walk away from them.

  6. The DUP deal may be costlier than 1billion. Robert Peston writing in the Guardian’s live stream suggests the DUP expect the deal to be worth more, possibly over 1.5 billion.

  7. Just seen a graphic of the panel base poll, either the graphic is in error or the poll is super rogue. What I saw was

    Con 41
    Lab 46
    Lib 6
    UKIP 0 !!?
    Green 7 !!?
    Others 0 !!?

    They must have made a mistake in the graphic, no way that can be the real numbers. Where are the tabs?

  8. Ahh, they have lumped SNP, UKIP and greens together with others, which suggests that SNP is collapsing as fast as UKIP and greens

  9. Just watched The Pretenders set from Glasto on i-player, Chrissie Hynde called Rupert Murdoch a see you next tuesday! No censorship from the good ol BBC there then!

  10. The EU expat deal is more detail on the proposals given at the EU summit but no change in the main points and key contentious point which is:

    “The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) will not have jurisdiction in the UK”

    IMHO the deal is as generous as we can be. It is absurd that after a generous grace period following Brexit that EU law can over ride UK law – that would be a legal nightmare for businesses employing both UK and EU nationals. However, EU27 will not see it this way and I’m not optimistic. I’d expect the EU’s usual suspects to be out saying it is not good enough by the end of the day. The proposals do leave some room for wiggle on UK side and certainly EFTA temporary transition status could buy time but that would be asking for the egg before agreeing on the chicken.

    Full text here:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/621847/60093_Cm9464_NSS_SDR_Print.pdf

  11. TURK @ CR

    Pope Benny 16 wouldn’t agree with you if this article is anything to go by:

    God is first to welcome the sincerely repentant sinner, teaches Benedict XVI.

  12. CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    If you want the tabs you can get then by googeling PanelBase polling.

    Personally I found the questions on leaving the EU showed that voters opinion has changed not at all, the Leavers margin is still a clear 4%. Voters would like more involvement fom other parties but of course the Government has offered that, to the DUP. :-)

  13. Emma in Brighton

    “Possibly more to do with how easily Osborne’s principles change.”

    Agreed, he’s more like a figure of fun to me now, rather like Ted Heath became after he lost to MT. Sad really I respected him up until the Referendum campaign.

  14. @TREVOR

    Except you are completely not understanding what the ECJ does. Its main role is to act as final arbiter in trade and inter-governmental disputes between members of the EU, which up until now includes us.

    The stuff that winds up little Englanders, such as not being able to deport Abu Hamza is on the edge of the very edge of its responsibilities. Its pretty much irrelevant to its function.

    The reality is if the UK is to have any sort of trade or other significant cross collaboration with the EU, then there needs to be such an arbiter. For example if we are to remain a part of Europol or the European Criminal Records Information System, then we must be a member of the ECJ or an ECJ clone. Without such an independent party to resolve disputes then cross border collaboration will quickly grind to a halt and the whole thing falls apart. If we are not going to be a member of the ECJ (or clone) then we might as well have absolutely no agreement with the EU, and just do a hard brexit, because to all intents and purposes they both result in the same thing.

    This is what you are not getting.

    This is why the the EU keeps bringing up the ECJ because it understands this reality.

    Our current conservative government of course doesn’t want to hear this truth or acknowledge it, because in doing so it will enrage its voting base.

  15. My guess on HoC (govt side)

    Moderate English CONs that can be whipped to agree anything – 260
    Extreme Brexit (Smogg, etc) – 30
    Remain/super-soft Brexit (Clarke, etc) – 7

    SCON – 13
    WCON – 8
    DUP -10

    Grand-total is 328 and working majority is 322

    May has a 2D nightmare to contend with.
    1/ Devolved nations: Generous deal to DUP will upset SCON and WCON. SNP and PC already on the attack. SCON especially might want some assurances before agreeing to the QS. If they abstain as a block CON are 1 short.
    (Related is where is the money coming from? Taxes will need to be raised OR deficit will have to give – I expect a bit of both the details will cause internal fighting within CON factions)

    2/ Brexit: the CON internal split on Brexit is a serious issue but probably won’t surface until after the QS. The EU expat deal might be a problem if EU point blank refuse it but the divorce bill will be the biggest issue and until “sufficient progress” is made on that we can’t move on to discuss the future relationship (which will also be contentious within CON party). NI as a nation should be happy with the DUP package and I think that issue can be resolved (or at least I don’t think it will break the CON internal coalition).

    With DUP agreement in place all the odds have obviously moved around shrinking massively on a CON minority govt led by May and widening on everything else (including a 2nd GE in 2017). Great to put cash in the bank but fancy its now worth a flutter that something goes wrong!

    Any thoughts from UKPR?

  16. @BT Says

    And Barnett rewards NI even more generously. It has the highest public expenditure per head in the UK and the worst fiscal balance before this deal.

    The ONS info here is interesting:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/2015to2016#net-fiscal-balance

  17. Quick look at “loyalty” section in Panelbase gives similar findings to the Survation polls:

    1/ loyalty in LAB is v.high (93%)
    2/ loyalty in CON is lower but still high (81% with 3% moving to LAB but 13% moving to DK which pulls down their headline value once DKs removed)
    3/ LAB benefiting further from squeezing out the smaller parties (notably Green and LD but even UKIP are splitting as much for LAB as CON – note v.small samples in these cross breaks)
    No regional split breakdown.

    The only simulation I have that would return a full LAB majority is one where the ABT vote and Scotland situation are very favourable for LAB (ie LD and Green vote tactically (as do LAB in LD/Green seats) and LAB gain 8+ further seats in Scotland). IMMHO LAB need to be 8%+ clear of CON to just about win a majority (more like 12% if they want a comfortable majority to reduce any internal divisions preventing the full Corbyn agenda).

  18. Re spending money

    Mundell the Scottish SoS seems to have already stated that the Scottish government will receive the amount equivalent to that received by NI

  19. SNP still holding on to their GE17 vote, loyalty rate 92%, only one point less than lab at 93%. Con manage to hold on to 81% of their vote, but the other minor parties have got problems. UKIP, libs and greens all have loyalty in 50s

  20. Of course, Mundell may have been economical with the truth

  21. @ Turk

    “Well if it’s on twitter it must be true.”

    What must be true?

  22. Panelbase tabs are interesting: http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w8tablesforpublication260617.pdf

    Here I’ll just summarise some of the voter churn going on (bearing in mind the margin of error on these crossbreaks, these should be given as indicative rather than definite trends – but they do tend to agree with what the survation polls found)

    Overall it’s saying about 3% of 2017 Tory voters would now vote Labour, and less than 1% of 2017 Labour voters would now vote Tory. In total, if everything else stayed the same, this would result in a narrowing of the Tory-Labour gap from about 2.5 points to just under 0.5. This kind of swing is very much in line with what survation has showed so far.

    Especially significant is that, out of those 61 Tory -> lab switchers, 40 were tory leave voters (3% of this group) and 20 were tory remain voters (4% of this group). A provisional conclusion from this may be that Labour has mostly squeezed the Remain vote from the Tories, and now they have to appeal to tory leave voters Ideologically, Labour are quite far (in terms of social values, if not economics) from Conservative leave voters, yet this is one of the biggest groupings of voters. To get a substantial majority at the next GE, they may only need to appeal to a small number of this group – but they do need some of them.

    However, Labour are still making a lot of gains with 2017 lib dem voters – gaining 19% (!!) percent of these voters, suggesting many of these voters perhaps wanted to vote Labour but didn’t for tactical reasons. Again this is consistent with survation, suggesting this trend is real. However, 19% of lib dem voters is actually a smaller number (55 in this sample) than 3% of Tory voters (61).

    The lib dem -> tory (23 voters), and tory -> lib dem (21 voters) switches almost exactly cancel each other out, so this is neutral.

    2017 UKIP voters look a lot more red than 2015 UKIP voters. 31% of 2017 UKIP voters (though a very small sample of 22) would vote Lab or CON this time, in a split of 17%/14% to Labour. This might suggest the Tories were better at getting their previously-Tory 2015 UKIP voters to return home than Labour were (a not surprising finding). If UKIP now falls apart completely, those 2% of voters who voted UKIP may fall equally or slightly in Labour’s favour.

    Really annoying that it’s not broken down by region so can’t see a detailed Scottish breakdown. But based on the small sample of 2017 SNP voters, 6% (9) of these say they’d vote Labour next time, just 1 respondent said the same for the Tories. No 2017 SNP voters going to the other parties, and 1 2017 Lab voter and 1 2017 Con voter each going to SNP. The shift from SNP to Labour here, if translated Scottish vote share, would represent a 2% swing from SNP to LAB. Obviously this is a tiny sample. but could be a signal of the beginning of SLab winning over some SNP voters. Given that voter churn for the other parties from SNP is so small by comparison, it’s probably not just noise. It would’ve been interesting to be able to observe if there’d been any movement between Lab and con in Scotland as the political dynamics here are different.

    TL;DR: Labour is gaining from a wide variety of parties to get their polling boost, and are yet to make significant in-roads with 2017 Tory voters, but there are signs some are starting to flip.

  23. @ Analyst

    Thanks for your last few posts looking into some polling data and numbers.

    Interesting to see that Labour still haven’t really taken much out of Tory VI; the two camps are looking increasingly polarised with very little left in the middle. It’s the behaviour of DKs that, I suspect, will prove most revealing over the coming months.

  24. TREVOR WARNE
    IMHO the deal is as generous as we can be.

    Thanks for the link to the PDF but grudging and miserly would be a better description, particularly re EEA nationals and family members, and a bureaucratic nightmare to boot. No wonder the EC were astonished by it, and not in a good way.

    There is also little or nothing in the document to give UK expats any reason to stop worrying, particularly pensioners in Spain.

    NB: This doesn’t apply to my wife and me since I have the right to remain in Switzerland due to my UN service. It would potentially apply to my younger son, who lives and works in Norway and is married to a Norwegian citizen with a young daughter who currently has only Norwegian citizenship.

  25. TOH

    @” he’s more like a figure of fun to me now, rather like Ted Heath became after he lost to MT.”

    I agree-a bit sad to watch really.

    DC reacted quite differently to the DUP deal-still he was sacked by the voters-not by TM .

  26. TREVOR WARNE

    @”IMHO the deal is as generous as we can be. It is absurd that after a generous grace period following Brexit that EU law can over ride UK law ”

    But that is what they will insist on I expect.

    Interesting to watch the HoC proceedings & the number of opposition MPS asking why TM didn’t just accept the EU “offer”.

    I have a feeling that TM’s consistent reply to those questions-because UK Courts should have jurisdiction in UK-will feature strongly in public reaction should EU dig in on this.

  27. Part of the SF statement on the DUP deal

    “So there is work to be done by the DUP and only limited time to do this. As they return to Ireland to meet with Sinn Féin and the other parties, the DUP should be minded of the words of Edward Carson speaking in 1921 on the Tory intrigues that had led him on a course that would partition Ireland: ‘What a fool I was. I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in that political game that was to get the Conservative party into power’.”

  28. @ ANALYST – agree your findings. Where the LDs have switched we can’t tell without far more detail (and to a lesser extent given the small numbers involved UKIP/LD).
    I’m not sure if you have a “ABT” (tactical voting) add-on to a seat level model but the low loyalty would strongly suggest to me that LD had tactical voters in the GE and might have even bigger tactical voting intentions now.

    Scotland shows how powerful the LD tactical vote is. They have 4 seats (and very narrowly missed on a 5th) with just 6.8% of the Scottish vote (coincidentally exactly what they would get under PR!) 2015 was the ‘test run’ hidden by lots of near misses but in Scotland SCON and SLIB have very efficiently divided out the “right”/union seats. Given SLAB/SNP differ on the union the “left” seats are split and have little evidence of tactical voting (SCON and SLIB work together at grassroots level but neither seem to assist SLAB in defeating SNP seats)

    In E+W the situation is different as obviously no IndyRef2 issue but if LD/LAB can show the same kind of “efficiency” in ABT as SCON/SLIN have shown with ABSNP then they could take up to 20 more seats from CON than a straight UNS would predict.

    NB I don’t want that to happen!! Of course if LAB have to come out from their Brexit ambiguity and put their high Remain vote at risk of splitting to LD then the opposite might occur. For sure UNS will likely create a lot of seat errors in predictions – even without the demographic issue!! Since I don’t have access to YouGov/Ashcroft level of polling best I can do is look at the extreme situations then apply a % probability to them.

  29. Absolutely fascinated by some of the volte-faces being performed here.

    Possible coalition with Sinn Fein – utterly unacceptable on account of their links to terrorism

    Coalition with the DUP – wise and saintly and their links to terrorism and general view are of no import

    Farage threatens civil disorder if he doesn’t get his own way – well, populism is just the expressed will of the people and there’s nothing wrong with it unless you’re a snobby elitist, and besides things are changing and this is just the way it’s going to be

    McDonnell threatens demonstrations – populism is, actually, unutterably awful, those ghastly young people should just shut up and in any case populism is all just a flash in the pan and nobody should care

    Point out that more educated voters voted Labour – a disgraceful slur on the less educated as education has no link to any kind of intelligence

    Point out that older voters voted Tory – of course, young people are all ghastly and stupid, older voters are far wiser.

    George Osborne as Chancellor – an economic colossus who is right about everything and austerity is a stroke of necessary genius

    George Osborne as editor of the Evening Standard – a detestable fool who never did anything for the Conservative Party, and austerity was a terrible idea anyway

  30. CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    How apposite.

  31. IMHO there is zero chance that the EU will accept jurisdiction of UK courts, because UK courts interpret UK legislation. Rights that depend on UK legislation are not rights at all. All that would be required is a change in UK legislation and they evaporate.

  32. Government proposals regarding EU Citizens

    Article 19. ‘Obtaining this settled status will mean that this cohort of EU citizens whose residence started before the specified date will have no immigration conditions placed on their residence in the UK, provided that they remain resident here.’

    This presumably means that should I and my Italian wife move for work purposes to Italy (not impossible, given that I worked there in the 1990s and have an open option on returning at some point should I choose to do so), or were we to retire to Italy for a while and then decide to return to the UK, we would have no guarantee that my wife would be allowed to return to the UK with me in retirement. Can anyone (such as ToH!) please prove me wrong?

    The document as a whole seems to be pointing in the right direction, but seems to lack an understanding of some of the realities of life for a couple or family of mixed EU/UK citizenship. On the whole, I suppose it’s not a bad opening gambit, but obviously compromises will have to be made (by both sides) in forthcoming discussions.

  33. @ BBZ – I respect your opinion but let’s just agree to disagree this time!

    @ COLIN – Indeed. The EU can sit back and ask for more give rather than bother to respond with any give on their side. I doubt many voters will be aware of how impossible the EU’s current “offer” is. A future legal nightmare to have two sets of jurisdiction covering two different classes of person. Obviously the compromise is EEA and accept free movement of people (if we tighten up immigration using existing rules I’m failry sure the economics would do the rest anyway). Paying 100bn to end up there would be a very bad deal IMHO and if we back down on the “easy” issue what chance do we have on the difficult one?

    If CON feel they have a strong enough internal coalition now they could just proceed and implement a unilateral immigration bill based on these proposals and leave the ball in EU court to respond. If they had a strong majority I’d expect they would do that but sadly I don’t think they do.

    Corbyn will make full use of the benefit of hindsight/benefit of opposition!!

  34. @Chris Riley

    And might I also add that there are many people who cannot see the severity of the current political situation because of the plank in their own eye…

    It is not hyperbole to stress the seriousness of the NI situation, nor the scale of the swing from Conservatives to Labour (notice I said “rate” of swing @Sea Change).

    Yes, yes, UK politics is just a crusty old hobby for generally right of centre middle-aged to elderly people, plus the odd leftie loony of any age… But not any more! As many have said before, this is like the independence referendum in Scotland, except for the debates won’t stop after the election because they are still relevant.

    Too many people here express their conservative (small c, not capital C) views in a bubble of ignorance. That said, the majority of the population make political decisions in a bubble of ignorance, so it is interesting to watch. For all I know, I’m in a bubble of ignorance too… just slightly less ignorant than some others!

  35. SSSimon

    Yeah, the DKs are definitely significant. I’ve excluded them from my analysis, perhaps wrongly. But you’re right, 13% of 2017 Conservative voters are now ‘don’t know’ (if extrapolated to all tory voters, that’s 1.5-2m people!) versus only 5% for Labour (about 600,000 people).

    So, as you say, the big question is whether those ‘don’t know’s’ change allegiance. Or whether they would even vote at all. Just as an example, if those 13% who voted tory in 2017 and now ‘don’t know’, all went to labour, and the current 5% Labour DKs went Tory, this would be a swing of 1.8% from Con to Lab in addition to the swings the poll is suggesting, increasing Labour’s lead from 5 points to 9 (+3.6 lead). Obviously that’s unrealistic – but it gives an idea of the importance of this group.

    In many ways, that big chunk 13% of Tory voters now saying ‘don’t know’ is probably the significant find for those who are wondering why Labour aren’t storming ahead. Instead of going straight to Labour, they aren’t sure. I’d argue this might be due to the ideological gulf between the parties, which is larger than it’s been for some time – it’s not an easy jump to make, hence only 3% have. Meanwhile, the SNP are much close to Labour ideologically, and there, 6% of them have gone from SNP to Labour, and only 2% of all 2017 SNP voters are ‘don’t know’. That, to me, is significant.

    Polarisation indeed.

  36. @ JOHN B – you need to acquire settled status via 5years of residence. If your wife has resided here for 5years (or satifies the 5y requirement by 2022-24 depending on the final start of the grace period) your OK.
    Without that anyone who visited for a weekend break or a Summer picking fruit could potentially claim UK benefits and take the matter to ECJ to rule on if we completely cave in.

  37. TREVOR WARNE

    ” take the matter to ECJ to rule on if we completely cave in”

    If we allow the ECJ jurisdiction over UK courts after we have left the EU then of course we will not have left the EU.

    No jurisdiction over UK courts on matters like this is a red line requirement for real brexiters.

  38. Analyst – 4.19

    Your suggestion that Labour might be ‘winning over’ some of the SNP vote is worth careful consideration. It seems to me, however, that Jeremy Corbyn is not such a major plus for Labour here in Scotland as he seems to be in the south. Having said that, however, someone (I forget who – apologies) opined the other day that Scotland may be reverting to a more ‘horses for courses’ type of voting: that is to say, a Labour ‘surge’ in Westminster polling is no guarantee of any such ‘surge’ for Holyrood.

    Having said that, if I may be allowed a personal comment, I would not object to the SNP laying down the reigns of devolved government for a while. In a democracy we need changes of government every now and again. However, there need to be viable alternatives to the status quo. As yet I see none north of the Border.

  39. Oh, one further point, or question, re: the EU offer.

    Has anything come of the idea, floated a week or so ago by one of the top EU bods, that UK citizens might be offered full EU citizenship, should they ask for it? Seems to me to be a far better offer for UK citizens than the one currently proposed for EU citizens by the UK government. Of course, it may get no-where, but its a wonderful idea IMO!

  40. TREVOR WARNE

    @”A future legal nightmare to have two sets of jurisdiction covering two different classes of person.”

    We will see how the negotiation goes on this-and to the extent that “progress” on it has to be made before we can start on Trade arrangements it will certainly be a key indicator.

    If EU do stick on this I will begin to crystallize fears that the EU negotiators-essentially from the Bureaucracy rather than the Council-are in a bubble of EU centric thinking. After all UK is the first member which has tried to leave & assert Legal ( & other) sovereignty. Have they really understood that this does not mean some sort of semi-detached subservience to continuing EU “authority” ?

    TM said in HoC that she had received “positive” responses from National Leaders. She instanced Poland ( & I read the response of their PM) , who’s nationals are the largest contingent in UK by far .

    If UK has to appeal to Council Members at every blockage-or if there are signs of National Leaders intervening in the negotiation process to move things along, its all going to get very messy.

    Their multi layered decision making & structures were never going to help this proceed smoothly.

  41. TREVOR WARNE

    Fair enough. I didn’t expect you to agree.

    I do think it will go down like a lead balloon with the EU27, though. Time will tell, of course.

  42. @TOH

    “No jurisdiction over UK courts ”

    All international treaties require dispute resolution mechanisms that are independent of either party. The UK courts do not meet that requirement and are not going to be acceptable to the EU.

  43. Trevor Warne – 5.02

    I think you miss the point of my question.

    There is no doubt that my Italian wife would have residence status immediately post-Brexit, for she has been in the UK legally – and working! -since 2004. My question relates to the uncertainty of whether that status is permanent, even if we move away for a few years (e.g. to Italy – but equally, presumably, to the USA for example). Would she be guaranteed that status in those circumstances? My reading of the article is that she would not.

  44. Colin – 5.16

    The UK has never been ‘subservient’ to the EU, any more than Germany or. France or anyone else has ever been ‘subservient’. The EU is a partnership.

    The UK has had a massive say in the development of the EU – and would have had a far greater say still had its leaders not been afraid of the right wing press, which seems to treat anyone who isn’t British as somehow strangely sub-human, or at the very least highly suspicious.

    :-)

  45. Robin

    That would not surprise me. A new body may be necessary but it cannot be the ECJ.

  46. ToH – 5.28

    Could we ask the ECHR to do the job?

    :-)

  47. @ TOH – I agree. Others seem to think any deal is better than a very bad deal. If the EU want to punish us then we should walk – sooner rather than later so we have time to set-up supply chains, fiscal cushions, etc rather than face a cliff-edge.

    @ COLIN – If we had the balls and walked then maybe the Eurocrats would have their chain yanked by the Council. If the Eurocrats are getting the UK to buy all the cakes then the Council will leave them to it.

    I think I need some fresh air. Very limited reaction from FX markets – either the markets don’t care or the benefit of some temporary govt fix has offset the -ve of the longer-term consequences. Decent day on betfair at least!

  48. John B

    I seem to remember that last year JC was more popular among SNP voters than SLAB voters. Mind you that doesn’t necessarily mean those voters would cross over, they could easily be of the opinion that a vote for the SON is a vote for JC as it’s inconceivable that the SNP wouldn’t support a labour govt

  49. JOHN B

    Very Droll, as you know i want us to leave that as well but it will have to wait until we have finished Brexit.

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