There’s normally a somewhat quite period in terms of voting intention after an election. There’s just been an actual vote, newspapers have blown all their polling budget during the campaign and even pollsters have to have a holiday. Sample quotas and weights all have to be rejigged as well (that applies even when polls have got an election correct – most polls’ quotas or weights include voting at the previous election, so 2015 targets all need replacing with 2017 targets).

We’ve had two Survation polls earlier this month, both showing Labour leads. Yesterday’s Sunday Times also had a new Panelbase poll, their first since the general election, and also showed Labour ahead. Topline figures there are CON 41%(-3), LAB 46%(+5), LDEM 6%(-2), changes are from the actual election result (or at least, the Great British vote share at the general election – the vast majority of opinion polls cover Great Britain only, not Great Britain and Northern Ireland).

It’s an interesting rhetorical question to ponder how much of the shift in public opinion since the election is because of the general election result (Theresa May’s figures have dropped now she is the PM who called a snap election and lost her majority, Jeremy Corbyn’s have shot up now he is a leader who deprived the Tories of a majority when he’d been so widely written off), and how much is the continuation of trends that were already there in the general election campaign? In other words, if the election had been a week later, would the trend towards Labour have continued and would they have been the largest party (or the Tories less able to form a viable government?). We’ll never know for sure.


605 Responses to “Panelbase/Sunday Times – CON 41%, LAB 46%, LDEM 6%”

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  1. @Trevor

    The problem with getting rid of May / Hammond or anyone else thats being troublesome is that the government still needs them and their friends/supporters on side for future votes.

    May would seemingly love to have been able to get rid of Hammond but she’s in the J Edgar Hoover scenario…. better to have him in the tent p****ng out than outside the tent p****ng in. Could do far more damage from the backbenches at a time like this.

  2. Labour will be pleased with the result of the private members ballot. 5 Lab and 1 SNP in the top 7 – that should provide a lot more opportunities to try and set the agenda and defeat the government in legislative votes.

  3. Labour will be pleased with the result of the private members ballot. 5 Lab and 1 SNP in the top 7 – that should provide a lot more opportunities to try and set the agenda and defeat the government in legislative votes.

  4. Parliament rises on July 20 and sits agin on September 5.
    My guess is still an early GE around Oct 19.
    And yes Trev W I have put a modest amount on this prediction!

  5. Speaker chooses abortion rights as one of the first amendments to be tabled…

  6. Colin
    For those of us who won’t pay Mudoch’s shilling what does Jenni have to say?

  7. @RJW

    RE: jenni Russell article in today’s Times…

    “Europe has repeatedly made clear to Britain that leaving the EU means we will trade on worse terms than we do now. Every credible economic body, from the OECD to the Bank of England, reports that Brexit is already injuring the economy. No one with experience of government, Europe or trade negotiations seriously believes that disentangling ourselves from the continent and creating a new relationship is going to be simple, quick and all to Britain’s benefit. Even Davis’s cabinet colleagues don’t share his insouciance. The chancellor, Philip Hammond, is much more alarmed by the danger of a bad Brexit, and — as became clear yesterday — has quite a different vision of where we should be heading and how long it will take to get there.

    There is no basis to Davis’s confidence in what he can achieve other than sublime self-belief. The comments from those who’ve worked with him are scathing: “hates to listen to advice”, “delusions of grandeur”, ”vain and quixotic”, “all noise and bluster”. One appalled politician told me: “He has no practical sense of the realities he’s about to confront”. Businesses, diplomats and civil servants report that he prefers assertion to getting to grips with inconvenient facts.

    His department, Dexeu, is finding it hard to recruit and keep staff, in part because Davis has acquired a reputation as a difficult man to work for. He is said to have learned more realism than Liam Fox and Boris Johnson, but that’s a low bar to pass. “He’s not interested in evidence when it doesn’t suit him,” says one insider. Much like the Red Queen, he is capable of thinking six contradictory things before breakfast. An economist reports: “All the evidence of economic benefits that he uses to justify new trade deals is the same evidence that he dismisses when it comes to the effects of leaving the EU.”

    Jill Rutter at the Institute for Government is worried by the absence of any informed proposals from Dexeu on how new arrangements for customs, immigration or the Irish border would actually work. Businesses that have come to see Davis have been left aghast at the lack of detailed understanding. Pharmaceutical companies are afraid of losing free access to the European medicines market; aerospace representatives warned him that the plans to leave the customs union and the single market would destroy their ability to import and export parts freely, and that without that Britain’s aerospace industry would collapse. Davis fobbed them all off with vague assurances that none of this was a problem; it would all be fine. They were not reassured.”

  8. @SYZYGY
    ‘ and Mary Wilson always said that Harold secretly voted against in the first referendum.’

    That is not what Mary Wilson said. What she did state was that she herself had voted Out in the 1975 Referendum. Harold voted to Stay in the EEC.

  9. Carfrew
    Oh, is that all there is to concern us?
    Cheeseus K Reist!

    How long before K Clarke etc start to put country before party?

    As last night’s vote shows, it only needs 7 or 8 of them and the show is over.

  10. Syzygy: “Unemployment for Greece = 23%; Spain = 18.9% … just saying”

    So that makes it OK if brexit takes us to the same place?

    Actually, here’s some breaking news: Spain Q2 GDP estimate +0.9%, following +0.8% in Q1 (UK Q1: 0.2%). And Spain June inflation 1.5% (UK May 2.9%).

    And the Spanish unemployment rate in April was 17.8%, not your 18.9%. Still way too high, but – as you’d expect with that rate of GDP growth – things are improving rapidly. In May, employment rose at the fastest rate ever recorded – 223,192 more jobs – and unemployment fell by a further 111,908.

    Just saying…

  11. I was really surprised by the Conservative’s decision to oppose the lifting of the public sector pay cap – I thought that the ammendment, covering an area the Tories have been mooting moving into, might have provided a real opportunity for them to give the appearance of collaboration and kill off adversarial attacks for the short time.

    Of course, the Conservatives may well be about to table a bill along these lines as soon as the new government starts, but it seems like a missed opportunity for them. I think 5-1 for another election in 2017 (Trevor Warne) is very good odds! Of course, it will require rebellions, so we’ll have to see. My original prediction was that the next election would be called in October, not necessarily happening in 2017, but maybe it is even more likely straight after the summer break…

  12. @RJW

    “Oh, is that all there is to concern us”

    ———–

    I have mostly tried to stay out of the Brexit thing, finding it even trickier than many other tricky things. So yes, the article is concerning, but so is staying in…

  13. “I was really surprised by the Conservative’s decision to oppose the lifting of the public sector pay cap”

    ————

    I wasn’t. It’s a surprise they didn’t extend it…

  14. Carfrew
    Brexit is trickier than an exam paper set by Professor McTricky of the University of Tricksvitlle. Staying in is not an option.
    Aiming for a Norway type situation, with a long transition period is probably our best bet as things stand. It’s going to cost us, but the alternative a la DD will cripple us as an industrial nation for a very long time.
    One of the Tory Brexiteers, I forget which one, said he would be prepared to see his family eating grass in order to ensure a ‘real’ Brexit. I don’t think many of the rest of us ‘inners’ or ‘outers’ would agree.

  15. R HUCKLE

    Interesting whether polls would ever include question about how long people expected a current PM to remain in office.

    They frequently do – or rather they ask a similar question about how long the PM should remain in position[1]. Panelbase asked in the very poll this thread is nominally about:

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w8tablesforpublication260617.pdf#page=4

    How long should Theresa May remain as Prime Minister? and go the following responses:

    She should step down now, before the start of Brexit negotiations with the EU 36% [9%]

    She should remain as PM for the first few months of the negotiations 10% [9%]

    She should remain as PM until the end of the negotiations (due to finish by March 2019) but then step down 13% [18%]

    She should remain as PM beyond March 2019 but step down before the 2022 election 5% [10%]

    She should remain as PM until at least the 2022 election 20% [41%]

    Don’t know
    16% [14%]

    [] are the percentages from those who vote Con in the 2017 election. Obviously there’s a lot of partisan weighting in this, but even Tories have a range of feelings. The way they only differ much from the overall rating on the extreme partisan options (Go now/Stay for ever) suggest a lot of mixed feelings.

    Leave voters are a bit keener for May to stay longer (whether they voted Lab or Con) presumably because they hope the stability will help their cause, but again it’s very mixed. The impression is one where no one really knows what they want.

    [1] If you ask people what they think will happen a lot more people will (quite reasonably) say they don’t know and most of the rest will say what they want to happen anyway. The wisdom of crowds is often over-rated as we saw in the recent election.

  16. @Colin

    Everything I’ve heard about Davies and DEXEU chimes with Russell’s article, albeit not quite so trenchantly. I know the pharma bods are in despair, especially with the current fragility of our industry.

  17. @RJW

    “One of the Tory Brexiteers, I forget which one, said he would be prepared to see his family eating grass in order to ensure a ‘real’ Brexit. I don’t think many of the rest of us ‘inners’ or ‘outers’ would agree.”

    ———–

    Yes, this is the standard refrain of those absolutely committed to Independence from summat to other. Myself, I’d happily eat grass to secure the best option, I’m just not entirely clear on what that happens to be. I suppose that’s an upside of being undecided, I don’t have to eat any grass…

  18. Carfrew
    Re Grass eating
    Can cope with people eating grass voluntarily, but as you are aware the problem arises when grass is the only item on the national menu!

  19. Roger Mexico,
    “Leave voters are a bit keener for May to stay longer ”

    But leave voters were 2/3 of all conservative voters, and probably 2/3 of leave voters voted tory. So there is a very big overlap between tory voting and leave support. If leave are keener on May than tories as a whole are, then Reman tories must be rather more against her, to be pulling down the average.

  20. Carfrew

    Perhaps grass should be added to the contents of the food banks that some of our nurses are forced to use.

  21. Anecdote alert.

    Just back from the Netherlands visiting our companies main customer and trading partner there.

    Naturally Brexit came up with me (remain) and my colleague (leave).

    The Dutch guys say that a large part of the Nd was in part cheering the UK in as they feel the EU needs a kick up the backside but that our presence will be missed. They don’t see Brexit as an anti-Europe vote but as an anti EU vote. They certainly do not resent the UK’s decision or see it in any way about them (the Dutch).

    Key message is that there trade association and Government agencies are telling companies dealing with UK business to carry on as normal and that there will be another 4-5 years from now of more or less the same.
    Then they expect a bespoke deal as no one wants to go back to pre-single market barriers.

    I stated my worry that the EU don’t want to give the UK a decent deal as other members might wonder why they should remain members. They suggested that the land borders made any other country leaving unlikely and that the Dutch, German and other Governments would not let the Junkers of the EU be too hard on the UK.

  22. Carfrew

    “… and so is staying in …”

    Can you explain to me the assertions you make in your comment that staying in is at least as tricky as the problems detailed in Jenni Russell’s article,

    Please remind me of the concrete upsides, perhaps the top five most prominent upsides…I have forgot what they were…

    (Please don’t insult my intelligence by mentioning the 350million for the NHS)

  23. JimJam
    What you report sounds close to the Norway-ish deal I set out above.
    I’d take it, as things are.

  24. the tories voting down the amendment to raise pay for public service workers is all over social media – “tories cheers as they vote to not give firefighters a payrise” etc – with video of tory mps cheering the vote against pics of fire fighters at grenfell.

    Its unfair – they cant really vote against their own queens speech – but its politics not tiddly winks. Committing to continue with the public sector pay freeze has gifted this propaganda victory to the opposition.

    This sort of stuff is toxic and is now a real problem for the tories. They have to ditch austerity if they dont want to gift the next election to labour.

  25. DANNY

    But leave voters were 2/3 of all conservative voters, and probably 2/3 of leave voters voted tory. So there is a very big overlap between tory voting and leave support. If leave are keener on May than tories as a whole are, then Reman tories must be rather more against her, to be pulling down the average.

    Indeed, but Panelbase had good-sized sample (5481) and so were able to split Lab and Con voters into Leave, Remain and DNV within each Party. So 66% of Lab R want May to go now, but only 56% of Lab L. Similarly 43% of Con L want her there indefinitely, but only 34% of Con R. The main determinant is clearly Party affiliation, but EU attitude also plays a part.

    There doesn’t seem to be a similar EU Ref effect among those who have moved VI since the election, at least for Con – there might be a small one for Lab but numbers are small. This might suggest that most VI shifts due the EU status has already happened.

  26. YouGov live polling asking the tax and spend question today. Solid early lead for increasing tax+spend but have to wait until later to see the final result and cross breaks, etc. The phrasing is similar to the BSA 34 surevy released y’day that had a small lead for higher tax/spend but is now several months old and did not include cross breaks. I really hope CON get the message in time for next budget. Tax receipts are up and no manifesto promises not to raise NI/IT a little so no excuse not to soften up a little on austerity.

    @ VOR – I agree CON will probably avoid any risky cabinet changes in the same way they avoided any risky legislation in the Queen’s speech. IMHO its only their fear of another quick GE and losing power that is holding them together! I’d have rather they had a comfortable majority to allow for some compromise in negotiations but c’est la vie as long as they hold it together during Brexit maybe the silver lining is they come to their senses and move into the huge vacant space in the Centre ground before next GE (new leader in 2019/20 would be my guess)

    @ RICH – strange choices from the speaker indeed. Y’day one was opposition’s main one so even though it was a budget question he couldn’t block it. Today he’s picked an amendment which is a devolved matter and then two almost identical ones from Corbyn and Umunna – different icing on the cake they both want to eat but basically both asking for the impossible and just political games. Umunna tabling a separate but near identical amendment to the front-bench suggests LAB are not as united as some believe! I was hoping the speaker was going to let LDEM have their 2nd ref amendment repeat to see if they could have won more than 33 votes this time (LD have 3more votes but SNP have quite a few less, I reckon it might have come in under 30 this time but it would have been useful to see all the LAB MPs having to side with the govt) :)

    P.S. Anyone heard from Gina Miller? Is she holidaying on Branson’s island with the Blairs? What happened to this new Centre-Remain party?

  27. @ Jim Jam
    “the Dutch, German and other Governments would not let the Junkers of the EU be too hard on the UK.”

    V. Interesting.”

    It’s Juncker isn’t it? Or were you referring ironically to
    (a) The WWII aircraft or (b) The Prussian noblemen/serf owners.
    Given the site’s mixed feelings about Germany & the EU perhaps you can clarify!

  28. @TonyBTG

    Are you serious? Have you been holidaying in Alpha Centauri or summat for the last few decades? There are lots of well-known issues with EU, and never mind five it’s not hard to give you ten…

    1) Insufficient democratic accountability
    2) The difficulties posed by free movement
    3) especially because governments and EU alike don’t invest in remedial measures, transfer payments etc.
    4) An austere economic approach that resulted in what happened to Greece etc.
    5) plus the imposition of political leaders
    6) further extreme liberal economic policy, constraining governments in terms of assisting industry etc.
    7) and TTIP was looking a bit scary before they canned it,,but it could return…
    8) they don’t play by the rules, letting Germany etc. off the hook while penalising others
    9) inflexibility, despite obvious issues with free movement, Austerity etc.
    10) we’re particularly vulnerable in terms of liberalising markets because we have such a popular language, making it easy to outsource services elsewhere, for eggers.

    I fear from your tone that there might be a temptation to resort to quibbling over these, but really, they aren’t very defensible. It’s true however that there are lots of BENEFITS to being in the EU we may sacrifice. It’s just that there are so many pros and cons it’s hard to weigh it all up…

  29. @RJW

    “Can cope with people eating grass voluntarily, but as you are aware the problem arises when grass is the only item on the national menu!”

    —————-

    Yes, that’s the fear, that either way, it’s more amd more grass. (Boomers seem to escape quite a lot of grass through…)

  30. @TonyBTG

    re: foodbanks. Yes this is summat else I am avoiding!!

  31. Yes Robbie – Juncker.

  32. ‘quite period’, do you mean ‘quiet’?

  33. Carfrew
    ‘Boomers seem to escape quite a lot of grass though…’
    Yes as a boomer I would agree, but boomers have children and grandchildren and not ALL of us are completely economically rational individualists, if you get my drift.

  34. @RJW

    Yes, and not all boomers benefit of course. Some of in northern industrial towns for example. I posted some polling a while back showing that quite a lot of boomers planned to spend their gains on themselves, something the polling also showed their descendants seemed ignorant of. They might be waking up now though!…

  35. Tonybig

    I’ve heard that quote before that nurses are using food banks is that just a bit of Labour nonsense put about by the Nurses unions or is there a actual number for instance what percentage of the 380,000 nurses in the NHS are using food banks because if it is only a tiny amount couldn’t that just be down to poor management of there money rather that destitution caused by low pay.
    Just asking if you got any figures to back up your assertion that nurses are being forced to use food banks lets have them if there from a reliable source of course.

  36. @Turk

    I don’t know whether you are aware, but there are quite a lot of medical peeps working in London. You may also not be aware that it’s very expensive to live in London, and then you have the rising costs of transport, utility bills, childcare whatever. Plus, due to Brexit, inflation is rising, and it tends to hit essentials more. I’ve posted before now how paramedics are struggling, wouldn’t be a surprise if nurses are too given years of below inflation pay deals…

    Many of these factors apply to some extent outside London too of course. Thus, even without any studies being done, you can see the very real factors liable to play a part…

  37. TONYBTG

    I am perfectly happy to review the situation in 10 years time, assuming I am still around, I will be 87 then. I’m not sure the outcome will be clear by then but if it is I would be happy to come on here and say I was wrong if I am. I did that immediately after the recent election as my forecast was way out.

    Somerjohn

    “you answered that these things could never happen and so there was no need to answer the question.”

    I remain of the same view that Brexit would not produce those things, so yes very confident.

    However I think they could happen under a Corbyn led government following the policies laid out in his manifesto. Just IMO of course.

    Voice_of_Reason

    “If we end up with long transitional arrangement which basically perpetuates the status quo for 3/4 years followed by a Norway style Brexit – will you still be celebrating?”

    No, since we will not have left the EU and as I posted some days ago we would just be a non-voting vassal state as opposed to a voting vassal state n that case.

    Carfrew

    Get an allotment man and grow your own vegetables. My family wouldn’t need to eat grass. :-)

    Good post to TONYBTG pointing out some of the problems with the EU(as Syzygy did earlier). I don’t agree with all your points but it is true to say any who post here are completely blind to the issues facing their beloved EU, mores the pity as we would have agood deal less of this ant-brexit stuff.

  38. @TOH

    “No, since we will not have left the EU and as I posted some days ago we would just be a non-voting vassal state as opposed to a voting vassal state n that case.”

    Yes that’s what I suspected you’d say. Sadly for the Brexit brigade though, this is the likely destination we are heading towards…. the softest of Brexits.

  39. Turk

    The issue of nurses using food banks was raised in the Question Time debate by a nurse who asked the question at the PM.

    I agree it’s been much quoted and I don’t have any personal experience or evidence of it, because luckily, i haven’t had the need to visit a food bank, but remember, most people are probably only one pay cheque away from destitution….so , there by the grace of god go I.

    However, I’m not really bothered about debating this. The food bank issue is a metaphor for the financial predicament many front line public sector workers find themselves in.

    The clock is ticking towards the day that this will change, Tories cheering themselves for effectively vetoing a pay rise for nurses, firefighters, and others is only going to damage them in the eyes of those of us in the electorate with a capacity for caring about others and wanting a fairer society and will serve to accelerate their demise.

  40. Surprised no-one’s mentioned the looming 4pm deadline to sort out the Northern Ireland power-sharing assembly, otherwise the return of direct rule is on the cards…

  41. @ToH

    “Get an allotment man and grow your own vegetables. My family wouldn’t need to eat grass. :-)”

    ——–

    Well mum grew up on a farm and had green fingers like my Dad, but sadly I did not inherit them. However, there are allotments in the nearby park which have me wondering every time I wander past, I must admit…

    Regarding EU, yes, although some matters are contentious, there are some obvious benefits, and drawbacks, that do not require so much debate. Given my parents hailed from the continent, I suppose in truth there’s a part of me that wants it to work, but I can’t ignore the issues with it…

  42. Voice_of_Reason

    “Yes that’s what I suspected you’d say. Sadly for the Brexit brigade though, this is the likely destination we are heading towards…. the softest of Brexits.”

    Firstly I don’t think your right, secondly i do not accept that “soft” brexit exists, as I say we will jus move to being a non voting vassal state.

  43. The UK Government has conceded that the English NHS will provide abortions for women from NI without charge to head off a vote on the Creasey amendment. A sign of things to come as the backbenches flex their muscles.

  44. CARFREW

    I was not into vegetable growing until I retired, some crops are really easy, other do need some skill. Woth your while giving it a go.

  45. CARFREW

    1) Insufficient democratic accountability

    I thought we voted for our MEPs?

    I do agree with you on the subject of commissioners though. Something that I would have liked to see reformed.

    2) The difficulties posed by free movement

    Free movement has been brilliant for this country.
    Problems caused by any negative effects of immigration on local communities could have been addressed by our various governments.

    3) especially because governments and EU alike don’t invest in remedial measures, transfer payments etc.

    See above.

    4) An austere economic approach that resulted in what happened to Greece etc.

    Just like our current government. Not sure what you are arguing here TBH. Are you saying we should drop austerity across the board?

    5) plus the imposition of political leaders

    I’m pretty sure the EU explored the possibility of elected president etc. But there was no appetite for it in member states, we do elect our MEPs though.

    6) further extreme liberal economic policy, constraining governments in terms of assisting industry etc.

    Not sure this is really true, I have lived in Italy and France. Both countries seem to find plenty of ways to invest and support their industries. Maybe the UK just uses this as an excuse to pursue its own neo-Liberal agenda.

    7) and TTIP was looking a bit scary before they canned it,,but it could return…

    No comment, here as I’m not expert in this.

    8) they don’t play by the rules, letting Germany etc. off the hook while penalising others

    Oh dear. Maybe the UK needs to stop moaning and start being more asertive about our national interests within the EU block.

    9) inflexibility, despite obvious issues with free movement, Austerity etc.

    That’s the downside of being in a mutually beneficial club. You don’t always get your way and have to compromise. All the countries have the same problem. But on the whole, we all move forward together. In cooperation,

    10) we’re particularly vulnerable in terms of liberalising markets because we have such a popular language, making it easy to outsource services elsewhere, for Eggers

    I would have thought this gave us a position of strength as one of the leading members. But leaving the EU is not going to address your concerns here. A lot of the outsourcing is going to non EU countries and this will only accelerate when we leave and are no longer part of the EU

    “It’s just that there are so many pros and cons it’s hard to weigh it all up….”

    That last point hardly seems a strong and stable basis for throwing away 40 years of hard work and economic progress.

  46. @Bill

    The deadline for the NI talks has been extended to Monday.

  47. Hireton

    While the extension to Monday is ostensibly to give Sinn Fein and DUP “space and time” to reach a deal, what it doesn’t give them is a reason to reach a deal.

    DUP may feel that direct rule by a UK Government that is held hostage by them, is the ideal solution to reassert the Protestant ascendancy.

    With Brexit being in something of a state of flux (on the UK side- the EU position papers are an interesting contrast https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations/negotiating-documents-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en?field_core_tags_tid_i18n=351 ), SF may also see a better opportunity for there to be sufficient demand for a successful border poll.

  48. @TOH

    “Firstly I don’t think your right, secondly i do not accept that “soft” brexit exists, as I say we will jus move to being a non voting vassal state.”

    Guess we will have to agree to differ on this. We will know soon enough. You seem very confident that the 50% of Tory MP’s that supported remain wouldn’t prefer to stay in the single market and customs union.

    I just think parliamentary arithmetic and the complexities and timescales of negotiating anything else means that Soft Brexit is where we will end up, and its likely to mean that leavers and remainers are both unhappy with the outcome.

    Then we can all unite again as a country in our common displeasure.

    Or more likely we will have both sides campaigning for a 2nd referendum on hard Brexit vs Bre-entry.

    But like you say…638 days to go (until the start of the transitional arrangement and the process of half leaving the EU). Can’t wait!

  49. @Carfrew

    There seem to be some errors in your list of EU failings, I’ve taken the liberty of correcting them:

    1) Insufficient UNDERSTANDING OF EU democratic accountability
    2) The HYSTERICAL PRESS MAKING UNFOUNDED CLAIMS ABOUT ALLEGED difficulties posed by free movement
    3) especially because THERE IS NO RECOGNITION OF THE WAYS IN WHICH governments and EU alike DO invest in remedial measures, transfer payments etc. SUCH AS STRUCTURAL FUNDS TO SUPPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
    4) An austere economic approach that REQUIRED ECONOMIC SYNCHRONISATION BUT WHICH WAS IGNORED BY GREEK POLITICIANS, WHICH resulted in what happened to Greece etc.
    5) plus the imposition of political leaders AFTER VOTES IN BOTH EUROPEAN COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
    6) further EXAGGERATION IN THE PRESS, MISREPRESENTING ESSENTIAL ANTI-PROTECTIONIST MEASURES AS extreme liberal economic policy, constraining governments in terms of assisting industry etc.
    7) THOROUGH AND MEANINGFUL ATTEMPTS TO REACH MAJOR TRADE DEALS, WITH WILLINGNESS TO RECOGNISE WHEN THESE DON’T MEET REQUIREMENTS, I.E. THAT TTIP was looking a bit scary before they canned it,,but it could return IF THE SCARY BITS ARE REMOVED…
    8) REGULAR FALSE STATEMENTS THAT they don’t play by the rules, letting Germany etc. off the hook while penalising others WHILE IGNORING THAT THE UK COULD BEHAVE THE SAME WAY IF IT CHOSE
    9) INSISTING ON ADHERENCE TO TREATY OBLIGATIONS, MISREPRESENTED AS inflexibility, despite obvious issues with free movement, Austerity etc.
    10) WE HAVE A PARTICULAR STRENGTH AS A ‘GATEWAY’ NATION FOR ACCESS TO THE EU because we have such a popular language

    In point of fact I don’t disagree with some of your points, I’m just pointing out that your supposed “well-known issues” are not universally held, and that some are downright false. For many, their view of Europe is entirely based on its (mis)representation in the media, not on any factual basis. (I’m not saying that mistrust is necessarily wrong, just that the basis for it is often ill-founded.)

    The fact that our Foreign Secretary had a prime role in developing the prevailing ill-informed and irrational mistrust of Europe is just one of several self-inflicted wounds when it comes to our relations with the EU.

  50. Throwback Thursday. A Golden Oldie poll from YouGov from just over a year ago. Twas the night before Brexit and all was still in the land!
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/atmwrgevvj/TimesResults_160622_EVEOFPOLL.pdf

    Looking at pages 4-6 does highlight why, at the time/immediately after, Remain were so disturbed. For many Leavers (including myself), leaving the EU would probably be a better thing economically in the long-term but for a lot of the issues (terrorism, NHS, pensions, etc) Brexit was either completely irrelevant or likely to make no difference. Remain saw almost every aspect of their lives about to fall apart if we left!?!? Even the economic benefit breakdown shows far less panic amongst Leave had the vote gone the other way:

    If we Leave would we be economically (Remain/Leave)

    Better off: 23% (3/48)
    Worse off: 40% (78/4)
    No difference 22% (9/38)

    Leave net bit better off, Remain hugely worse off!

    Risky/Safe a similar issue, Leave EU (Remain/Leave)
    Total Risky: 54% (91/20)
    Total Safe: 34% (3/71)

    The very disturbing issue now is still the total panic – IMF etc all predicted the carnage to be instant. A whole year has gone by, the economy is probably “no different” and yet people are still talking about crazy things like eating grass!?!?

    Being an island, most of our economy (over 70%) is domestic. For foreign trade the split is roughly 50/50 EU/non-EU.
    UK has far larger risks than Brexit – the huge level of personal debt probably a much bigger risk than a little blip in GDP as we switch a little of our 15%ish EU import side to other (cheaper) sources and build up an even greater % of non-EU exports. The EU/non-EU trade balance has been shifting to more non-EU for several years anyway – leaving the EU will just speed that up.
    Socialist govt? Bigger risk than Brexit IMHO especially if timed just after.

    Globally, China could pop, Middle East could ignite, lots of things outside of our control (or democratic vote), so peeps:

    Keep Calm and Carry On!!

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