More Brexit polling

A year on from the EU referendum there was some new YouGov polling for the Times this morning. The country remain quite evenly split over whether Brexit is right or wrong, 44% think leaving was the right decision, 45% the wrong decision. There is not much optimism about negotiations – only 26% expect the government to achieve a deal that is good for Britain, 31% expect a poor deal, 15% expect no deal at all (that said, most don’t think Labour would be doing any better – 24% think they’d get a better deal, 34% a worse deal, 20% that it would end up much the same).

Asked to choose between Britain having full control over immigration from Europe or British businesses having free access to trade with the EU people preferred trade by 58% to 42%. As I wrote in my last post, there’s a lot of variation in questions like this depending on the specific wording, but the overall picture suggests that when people are pushed to choose they do think trade is more important than control of immigration (though among Conservative voters the balance is the other way round).

On other matters, on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn now leads Theresa May by a single point – 35% to 34%. This is the first time that Corbyn has led in the question – this is partially because of a sharp drop in Theresa May’s ratings (before the snap election she was consistently in the high 40s), but is also due to a significant increase in Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings. Again, if you look at the longer term ratings he used to be consistenty down in the teens.

Full tabs are here

I should also add an update on polling about the second referendum. In my last post I mentioned the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday which found that the balance of opinion was in favour of having a second referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal. This was the first time any poll had shown this, and I said it was worth looking to see if other polls found the same. Well, so far they haven’t – Survation also had a poll for Good Morning Britain on Monday, that also had a question on a second referendum, and it found 38% of people supported it and 57% were opposed. Tabs for that are here.


451 Responses to “More Brexit polling”

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  1. ALLANCHRISTIE

    You clearly did not see Davis on the Marr Show this morning. There is a man who is very clear at what he is about and totally on top of his brief, who exudes confidence going forward.

    I venture to say if the Tories had put him on TV during the election, talking about the EU negotiation as he did this morning the Tories would have won at least a 100 majority. Just IMO of course.

  2. Would it not be helpful for polls to do more to disaggregate public attitudes to immigration & sovereignty?

    For example, the former consists of 1 Non-EU immigration; 2 refugees & asylum seekers; & 3 free movement of EU citizens. To what extent, therefore, would major concerns about immigration remain, even if and when restrictions were placed on 3, if the status quo applied with 2 & 3?

    And with sovereignty, it surely must mean something more than just a comfortable feeling of having regained it? So in which areas are people expecting things to change via the re-imposition of independent action by the UK? On immigration, see remarks above. In other areas, there are plenty of non-EU issues on which, rather than act autonomously, we have always found it eminently to our advantage to pool sovereignty and act in harmony with other nations – eg air-traffic control.

    More probing in these areas by the polls might help illuminate whether or not the electorate would feel the gains from leaving the EU are offset by the potential disadvantages – the latter including the continuing all-consuming rigmarole of the negotiations over our Brexit deal.

  3. New Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times:
    Labour 46%
    Tories 41 %

    Approval ratings:
    Corbyn +17%
    May – 17%

    Remarkable. Corbyn and May have swapped approval ratings.

    LAB on 46% and 5% ahead of CON during what should be a CON honeymood period (post-election win).

    After their previous election ‘victories’ CON boosted their VI in polls following the election win. And this is before any ‘mid-term blues’ begin to set in…

  4. Lab on 46% It’s been a long time since they were riding this high in the polls. There were some on here saying that 30% was their ceiling. Other more excitable posters saying they were finished. These predictions were all only a few short weeks ago.

    A remarkable turnaround.

  5. Panel base approval ratings. May at -17%. Corbyn now at + 17%. Simply astonishing.

  6. Possibly not 100 Howard but enough I agree.

  7. Trevor Warne, regarding PMs popularity, but has anyone’s sunk so fast? Has anyone plunged like TM after coming first in a election?

    Has any leader before JC confounded the press and wise people on ukpr in the same way?

  8. MARK W

    I think you would need to define ‘wise’ in respect to posters on here

  9. Mark,

    as Mrs T once said – No! No No.

  10. R Huckle: “once people face up to the complexities that Brexit has to tackle”

    Ay, there’s the rub. Can we believe that people will ever actually face up to the realities of the situation? Here on UKPR we see examples of those who maintain that everything will be fine after a period of discomfort. Will these people ever accept dire reality? I can’t see it.

  11. Mike Pearce, wise, yes, tongue firmly in cheek.

  12. TOH

    “Norbold

    Re your 10 years after Brexit post. If you want real horror you should read my worst case scenario as the EU falls apart. I won’t post it you wouldn’t sleep at night.”

    1. It would take a lot more than that to make me lose sleep at night whatever it says. You take things far too seriously. Lighten up.

  13. Might make a good plot for a novel Norman.

    10% of royalties enough for the idea thanks.

  14. I read somewhere, possibly here, that only a few thousand people shape the space within which debate is seen a sensible.
    It appears that talking about JC sanely and without recourse to unreliable truths set out by those people became impossible, even on ukpr at times.

  15. MARK W
    With Corbyn there was an almost uniform narrative that he was useless and that there was no opposition to the Tories. Social media helped to alter that narrative and Corbyn’s appearances on tv such as The One Show would have done him no harm.

    Whatever his critics say he does come across as authentic. There are few politicians who convey authenticity these days.

  16. As we are some weeks from the election, and there have been a few polls, are there no plans to report on them and add them to th list at the side?

  17. 46% is the joint highest LAB have been in any opinion poll since 2002.

    (there was an IPSOS MORI outlier in November 2012 which also had LAB on 46%).

    If LAB can settle in the mid-fourties for a few weeks, it will be their best run in the polls since 2001.

  18. Mike Pearce, I think the fresh (in recent times) ideas that challenge the consensus were the most important part of Labour’s rise in VI.

    The fact that the narrative about the man was so wrong may have actually helped JC in the end, as others have pointed out.

    Since TB it was very common to hear people to complain the two main parties were very similar so people have reacted well to an alternative.

  19. TREVOR WARNE

    Many thanks for the multi-national YouGov link from just before the GE. Much to ponder there.

    The page that struck me as a bit odd in context was p9 of the PDF.

    On EU Citizens to have the right to live and work in other EU countries, more GB citizens [55%] think that’s a good thing than France, Denmark and Norway.

    On the single currency and open borders they’re all over the place, with GB the lowest on currency and Norway lowest on borders.

  20. @PamF

    Yes, I suppose October is only a few weeks away.

    Although I suspect the Tories will cling on until December / January.

    (There is some sarcastic interpretation of your post here).

  21. NORBOLD

    I have waited 43 years to leave the EU, so yes I do take it seriously.
    As to lightening up, I sleep like a babe most nights, at my age after 4-5 hours work at the allotments or in the garden why wouldn’t I?

    Glad to hear your relaxed as well, enjoy your day

  22. Somerjohn

    ” I can’t see it.”

    It could be that your view is wrong, has that occured to you?

  23. 46% vs 41%

    Truly a polarised electorate.

    I’m sure Conservative supporters will be pleased to see that their own poll rating is still solid and hoping that time will eat away at Labour’s support.

  24. @PNG “Forgive me if I am repeating what has been said elsewhere if Jeremy Corbyn had campaigned as enthusiastlcally for Remain as he did for his own purposes in the election we might well not be in the the mess we are in today!”

    Jezza is an avowed Brexiteer so why would he? He always has been! He is in the same camp as Tony Benn and Enoch Powell on the issue of the UK in an EU Superstate and the corresponding lack of democracy and accountability. Any cursory look at Hansard or his previous written articles will confirm this.

    He forced a 3 line whip on A50 despite the howls of protest from the PLP. Yet he was proved right by shoring up the GE vote in the Midlands, North and Wales.

    In this hung Parliament, we may see some very weird alliances as the Tory Brexiteers and Labour left wing vote to ensure our departure.

    For those who harbour fantasies of remaining in the EU, I would remind you of two salient facts: 77% of 2015 Tory Constituencies voted Leave and 70% of Labour did. Combined in 2017 we’re still looking at around 70%. Further, both manifestos committed to leaving the EU Structures and ending freedom of movement.

    I am still awaiting (with popcorn at the ready) the idea that we could remain in the EU which is now clearly seeking the next step towards full integration.

    The reason Remain lost is they offered no hope inside the EU as they didn’t dare state the case for the inevitable final end point of the EU!

    The UK electorate has almost always been told that the EU was economic and not political. Benn & Powell were right. The British would never accept political union. And we haven’t.

    @Barbazenzero – our discussion a week ago on confidence issues when I last had time on here.

    You are technically correct it would require a separate vote under the FTPA. But it practice this is not how our politics works. This was amply pointed to an enraged Graham who couldn’t understand why Corbyn accepted the need to agree to a GE. Politics overrides rules in most cases. Politicians define the very rules in our rather unique constitution in any case, so they are always, at best, conventions.

    What I am saying is that it is highly likely that a Government might state that a vote will be a matter of confidence and on losing that vote that the subsequent FTPA confidence vote that would be added to the bill wouldn’t also be lost.

    Several people on the Government side could simply abstain to ensure that outcome.

    “’cause it’s politics man, politics.”

    @Carfrew – our discussion a week ago on Corporation Tax. I do agree that you raise some interesting ideas when it comes to the possible uses of that. However, I still contend that it is inefficient. AW has made it pretty clear that he doesn’t want us to expound at length on economic theories on here so I will not re-ignite that debate out of respect for his dictum.

  25. wouldn’t also be lost = would be lost

  26. Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46%
    CON: 41%

    (via @PanelbaseMD / 16 – 21 Jun)

  27. Seachange

    I disagree. Corbyn has made clear that any Brexit negotiations should all be about jobs. Let’s not forget he is in favour of free movement of labour and would be happy for us to stay within the single market. They will play a waiting game in the knowledge that greater uncertainty is likely to be reflected in voter changes in opinion. We are already seeing more voters putting trade ahead of immigration.

    One other point. Labour are sniffing blood. If they can vote down the Government then they will. I see alliances between right wing Tories and Labour left wingers as highly unlikely

  28. Somerjohn

    Just to be clear when I said “it could be that your view is wrong I was referring to you view on the outcome of brexit. I wouldn’t like to confuse you.

  29. @ CatManJeff

    “For a very funny take on Brexit negotiations, listen to Deadringers on R4 this week.”

    My favourite line was about Corbyn supporters at Glastonbury. The classic: “I liked him better before he became popular”.

  30. Mike Pearce

    “he is in favour of free movement of labour”

    Unfortunately for him many of his supporters and potential supporters are not.

  31. To put that Panelbase poll into perspective, their final pre-election poll on 7th June was Con 44%, Lab 36% – so they were close to the average for all pollsters but overstated the Con lead by 5 points.

    If they’ve not changed their methodology this might be interpreted as a 10 point Labour lead.

  32. PHILOTES

    The amazing thing is how well the Tory vote is holding up despite all the negativity from the media at the moment. I have to say i personally expected it to drop significantly.

  33. @ James E

    Pretty sure they will have changed their methodology. They would have to be complete idiots not to have.

  34. JAMES E

    Fair point but they are in-line with the two Surv ation polls post the election.

  35. The missing poll in AW’s previous back catalogue thread!! EU divorce bill payments found at last (it was ICM/Guardian not YouGov!). Ignore the very out of date VIs etc and go to table 8 and onwards:
    https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_apr1_poll.pdf

    Highlighting table13 which suggested a 20bn bill (ICM chose 3/10/20 all of which are wildly unrealistic). Totals with cross breaks (CON/LAB)

    Acceptable 10% (7, 18)
    Unacceptable 70% (18, 64)
    DK 20% (11, 18)

    There is a difference in the cross breaks but even LAB voters overwhelmingly think we should not pay as much as 20bn divorce bill.

    As I posted back on the earlier pages the 2017 GE has distilled the Leave/Remain vote further into CON/LAB by sucking in the smaller parties and small shift between the two main parties according to Leave/Remain view. YouGov and all other polling companies have downplayed ignored this and focus on the age division (which is highly correlated of course and correlation is different to causation)

    @ BBZ – agree on both your replies.

    @ Corbynistas – Thatcher and Blair both had higher highs and lower lows than May and both moved back into high +ves after deep -ves during their roles as PM (obviously they both had far longer terms) – link sent earlier. John Major holds the record for largest and quickest fall (+25 to -50) with Blair not far behind in magnitude (+42 to -25) although he did take several years to accomplish that.
    History only back to mid 1970s.
    For opposition leaders see this link. It doesn’t have the relevant names on so you have to check who was leader at each point in time (and who was PM) but clearly shows that leader approval ratings are volatile. The last far-left LAB leader of opposition managed an impressive +10 to -50 move in the early 1980s before Kinnock pulled them back to around 0.
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/files/2015/02/PartyLeaderSatisfaction.png

  36. @Philotes
    “They would have to be complete idiots not to have.”

    Given that they were one of the pollsters who changed their method mid campaign to boost the Tories by 7 points I wouldn’t rule anything out. Having said that you would at least think they’s adjust the turnout filter to match the 2017 election result rather than the 2015 one. Does anyone know if this is true? And what difference does it make?

  37. @Mike Pearce “I disagree. Corbyn has made clear that any Brexit negotiations should all be about jobs. Let’s not forget he is in favour of free movement of labour and would be happy for us to stay within the single market. They will play a waiting game in the knowledge that greater uncertainty is likely to be reflected in voter changes in opinion. We are already seeing more voters putting trade ahead of immigration.”

    What point do you disagree on? I stated that Corbyn has always been anti-EU. (He is). I stated the manifesto commitments from both parties are to leave the EU structures (they do) Corbyn stated on TV (as did McDonnell) only a few days ago that we would be leaving the Single Market. He has stated the ending of EU Freedom of Movement and that was in the manifesto. (Don’t mistake the Bennite belief in an internationalist universal freedom of movement without borders with being in the EU)

    “One other point. Labour are sniffing blood. If they can vote down the Government then they will. I see alliances between right wing Tories and Labour left wingers as highly unlikely”

    At the moment, yes. But 12 months down the road when real decisions are taken I wouldn’t be so sure. You have to think what are the different factions end-game goals. That will likely define their positions if this Government ends up becoming relatively stable.

  38. SEA CHANGE

    What I am saying is that it is highly likely that a Government might state that a vote will be a matter of confidence and on losing that vote that the subsequent FTPA confidence vote that would be added to the bill wouldn’t also be lost.

    We’re close to counting angels on a pin here, but unless I’ve missed something, I don’t believe that the required 2011 FTPA motion can be “added” to anything.

    The UK GE this month happened because Corbyn thought he could increase his seat numbers or perhaps even win. That’s why he supported the main form of the motion [“That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.”] and whipped his MPs to provide the two-thirds majority for it.

    For confidence motions, para (4) on p3 of the PDF simply states that [t]he form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(a) is— “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.

    Nothing in the act says it can be combined with other motions, although equally nothing says it cannot!

    I do agree that some or perhaps many Con MPs might safely vote down their own party but back them in the subsequent confidence vote. What happens in the HoC will be very much a question of whether they vote differently to the Cons.

    _____________________________________________

    Lawn Tennis fans might note that Federer just won his usual Halle pre-Wimbledon warm-up 6-1 6-3. Given the lacklustre performance of seeds at Queens, it may be an omen.

  39. Panelbase – how would you vote in a 2nd EU ref (n=5,481):

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    https://mobile.twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/878632600226680840/photo/1

    If anyone has link to the full tabs could they post. Keen to see the loyalty section in the VIs. I’m guessing LAB are continuing to suck in LDEM/Green possibly also NAT parties but keen to see the actual flow numbers in the cross breaks.

  40. Trevor Warne, supporter not corbynista, it is taken by many as a slur and the construction was first used in a deliberately disparaging way by labour list.

    Or can I call you a toryapolagista?

    I would support any leader with a similar set of policies as would most supporters.

  41. TOH: “It could be that your view is wrong, has that occured to you?”

    My “I can’t see it” remark was clearly in reference to the possibility of people like you changing their minds about brexit, however dismal the effect.

    If you’re saying that I could be wrong in my assessment of how deeply entrenched your position is, and that if things get really bad you could envisage voting to remain in the EU in a second referendum, then of course I would welcome that Damascene conversion.

  42. SOMERJOHN

    No, which is why I sent a second post. I was saying “could it be that you, Somerjohn, were wrong about Brexit and its outcome”.

    I cannot see my ever voting to remain in the EU as we have just voted to leave which as you know I am entirely happy about.

    Pulling your leg really.

  43. TREVOR WARNE

    Thanks for that, really very amusing, no movement at all despite all the Remainer constant carping.

    LOL

  44. @TOH

    The problem for Remain is now “What is the case for Remaining in a future EU superstate?”.

    A50 has been enacted. Their whole argument is still based on the economics but there is a point blank refusal to discuss the politics of it.

    Thus that path is doomed.

  45. @ MARKW – apologies, I thought Corbyn supporters approved of that name. FWIW you can call me what ever you like – I’d suggest picking one of the Brexit related terms and heard most of those over the last year. I’d consider myself a “central” voter on a left-right scale but since LDEM are Remain and LAB are far-left I have to go with CON until Brexit is delivered. Red Tory or Blairite (without Blair) will get my vote in next GE if that is an option – provided they honour the EU referendum of course :)

    @ TOH – my pleasure. AW continually writes that very little has changed on voters Brexit views and supplies copious polling evidence but always great to send out reminders with sample sizes of greater than 1 :)

  46. @BZ

    Motions of no confidence only existed as a convention. They are not law. The FTPA specifically legislates their wording and the consequences of a loss now. However, there is nothing in the legislation that states you couldn’t link a vote loss with the automatic triggering of a motion of confidence to be voted upon.

    I don’t think we are in huge disagreement. It really is a matter of politics and if a Government states that a particular bill is a matter of confidence than if they lost that they would likely engineer a loss of the confidence vote (if they really needed to).

  47. SEA CHANGE
    Sorry – didn’t proofread my previous post…..

    What happens in the HoC will be very much a question of whether they vote differently to the Cons.
    should have read:
    What happens in the HoC will be very much a question of whether the DUP vote differently to the Cons.

  48. Re the panelbase poll Lab 46 Con 41 have they changed there sample weighting methods. Last poll before the election was Con 44 Lab 36.

  49. ToH

    The majority of Labour voters voted Remain. Given that current polling suggests that more voters are putting trade deals as a higher priority over immigration control then it’s likely a proportion of Labour leave voters will not be as concerned now about a trade deal taking precedence over immigration control.

    Seachange. Labour will want a trade deal with the EU. Con may be willing to depart without one.
    Whether the Government is relatively stable a year from now remains to be seen. Who knows how long any DUP might last. By elections may arise too. Unforeseen events are likely as well. I would be surprised if we have any stability at all going forward.

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