New swingometers

A brief note – I’ve updated the two graphical swingometers on the site so they are based on the 2017 election results. The basic version is here, and the fancy version that lets you put in separate Welsh and Scottish figures is here (the old version without the map isn’t yet updated).


828 Responses to “New swingometers”

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  1. @CambridgeRachel, @ChrisLane1945 – I can only see those Yougov figures going one way, especially after May and Corbyn’s relative performances at Greenfell Tower today.

    I’m beginning to fear for May actually. The direction of travel is all one-way at the moment and I can see the press really turning on her the longer she stays.

    Would be really interesting to see a voting intention poll in one of the Sundays (not that many of them were on the ball before the GE).

    BTW, also in poll for favourability:

    Labour +6
    Conservatives -21

  2. Looking at the con gains from lab, on a superficially level it looks like most of them are a result of ’15 Con vote + change in UKIP vote, with Lab gaining roughly 3% of the vote from various sources. Conversely if you look at the seats of prominent remain conservatives in the midlands the reverse seems to be true. In Broxtowe and Rushcliffe it looks like a basic Lab ’15 + change in UKIP vote.

    There may be much more complex churn hidden beneath these numbers, and other factors must have contributed to Labour holding of the Tory advance. From my limited knowledge of these areas cited above I am assuming they are more likely to have a higher level of skilled WC voters, for whom on the face of it Brexit is a key factor.

    A number of commentators have also highlighted that anti-Corbyn sentiment amongst former Lan voters was highest is these areas of the country. In Copeland the ‘nuclear’ issue obvs plays a role. Also skilled WC voters are more likely to read the Sun and have views on security and defence that make them weary at least of Corbyn. Given the nature of the swings in the Midlands and North I personally think Brexit had a far bigger role than concerns about Corbyn which probably had a relatively small impact in the end.

    If Corbyn is to win an overall majority he does need to win over larger numbers of skilled WC voters, or hope that in some areas there is a UKIP revival and that works to Labs advantage.

  3. The CON / LAB change is far smaller than the May/Corbyn change but the poll highlights the desperate predicament for CON (IMHO)

    1/ They need to form a govt rather than risk a 2nd GE (the maths just does not work for Corbyn so if CON can’t form a govt we’ll need another GE which would probably result in another hung parliament but possibly with LAB having the maths to form a minority govt/coalition (or in theory we could have a zombie govt out until the next budget – unlikely with Brexit negotiations requiring a govt))
    2/ They need to assign the whole GE debacle onto May (but only after they have formed a govt)

    Optimistically for CON this could be achieved with a DUP deal to get a govt formed, chainsaw the manifesto and move to the centre and then a leadership hand over/challenge in the Summer. I have high confidence in CON forming a pact with DUP and doing the necessary chainsawing of the manifesto, however, pulling off a leadership challenge without re-opening the Brexit divisions within CON would be tricky IMHO. May was a “Reluctant Remainer” that seemed to pull all sides of CON together on Brexit. Most of the other choices would struggle to achieve that (IMHO). Amber Rudd has a tiny majority and moving her to a safer seat into a new GE would be huge ammo for the press.

    As ERIK points out the risk of UKIP returning should not be under estimated (IMHO) not least of all by CON! It’s amazing to look back and think last Summer many thought CON might split over Brexit and then soon after that LAB might split over Brexit and here we are back to CON (or at least CON vote) being split over Brexit!

  4. I actually think May is getting a rough time at the moment, I know people will say that’s fair game as PM, but the stuff on social media is to many extents now worse even than what is levied at the right wing tabloid press for treatment of Miliband and Corbyn. No matter what the news story, everything is skewed politically and rather personally against her.

  5. @ Rich

    Yes Rich, we know, after years of just press bias against Labour with no Social media counterweight, now there’s a counterweight and some peeps are having trouble adjusting.

    Thing is, even her own peeps say she made a bit of a Horlicks of it, whereas Jezza was condemned before he’d had much of a chance to make a Horlicks.

  6. Tables for the YouGov poll on leaders are here:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ovy5dhg86p/InternalResults_170612_Favourability_W.pdf

    compared to the previous time the questions were asked (29-30 May), the changes less than two weeks later are quite dramatic. Not just for May (-5 to -34) and Corbyn (-14 to 0) but more significantly for their Parties[1]

    Conservatives drop from -12 to -21, while Labour rises from -6 to +6. Lib Dems are up a bit and Greens a lot. Their progressive alliance rhetoric may have helped their image if not their votes.

    Ironically Farron also gets a boost from -32 to -26.

    [1] It has to be pointed out (because no one else seems to be doing so) that some of this is technical because weighting is to 2017 result rather than 2015. Because YouGov was underestimating Labour in previous polls, there would be an automatic improvement in Labour and Corbyn’s ratings, even if no one changed their mind. But it wouldn’t be as big as this.

  7. Brilliant Polls for the Tories.

    TM cannot believe her luck with these polls. Her two greatest fears will be a leadership challenge or party indiscipline.

    No tory mP is going to risk an election and thus their job with polls like this. It almost guarrantees loyalty. Secondly ,which challenger is going to take over and lead the party to certain defeat.

    As long as the polls are this bad tM knows she is safe. It is when Tory fortunes recover that the challenges might occur

  8. @REDRICH

    Not really. From earlier threads the evidence points towards half of labours advance coming from new voters and the other half from an overall taking of voter share from other parties. Though higher than before the data still puts turnout rates for the under 40’s at levels that are still significantly below that of older age groups.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/874671254250409985

    This means there is still a large pool of non-voters for labour to mine for more votes, particularly in light of the fact that younger voters are going to be naturally inclined towards voting for the left. It makes much more sense for labour to go after these than to try and convert conservatives into voting for labour. There will of course be some lab-con switchers to try and get back, but now that labour have proven they can turn non-voters into lab voters, its pretty obvious they will try and do the same again but with increased intensity. This is something that the conservative party really has no answer to. Non-voters are more left inclined so the last thing they want to do is encourage non-voters to vote.

  9. @Catmanjeff

    Interesting analysis in which I would say that because Corbyn is further to the left of where Tony Blair took the Labour Party, the basis for belonging to and electorally supporting the Green Party in 2017 diminished in England and Wales.

    Both the Northern Irish Leader in Down North and the Scottish Leader in Glasgow North, marginally improved their support as did the candidate for the Isle of Wight compared to 2015, and the Northern Ireland party’s vote did not shrink at all.

    Further, and interestingly, in the May 2017 English county council elections while the Greens were wiped out in Norwich and Oxford, now Corbynista strongholds, the Party made sufficient gains taking seats from the Conservatives, like Weymouth in Dorset and Michinhampton in Gloucestershire, to be the only party to maintain the same number of seats overall against the Conservatives gains.

    The same can be said as true in Scotland in terms of their local elections and the Greens in Wales actually won their first seat there.

    So I would not agree that the Greens cannot continue to make gains under FPTP, as unlike UKIP they were not wiped out in the local government elections.

    Further I also think that the Liberal Democrats got lucky in 2017 GE, in that in order to block May’s Conservatives in England they received tactical votes in seats where they had previously had MPs, and that would be true in Scotland as well where the dogfight was with the SNP instead.

    Wherever a viable progressive alternative existed to LD, Ceredigion, Leeds Northwest and Sheffield Hallam LD continued to lose and even lost a seat to the Tories in Southport.

    So I think there will be a continued redefining of politics in the UK as occurred in Australia to the Democrats, who eventually disappeared. UKIP like One Nation in Australia and the FN in France will continue to poke it’s ugly head up above the parapet from time to time. Other than that two big questions will remain:

    One, when will both the Conservatives and Labour replace their “baby boomer” leadership as is happening in Canada in that Trudeau is in his early forties and the new leader of the Conservatives is 38.

    Two, can the neo-marxists co-exist with the socio-economic liberals inside the Labour party and can the social conservatives/economic nationalists continue to co-exist with the pro-free trade neo-liberals inside the Conservative Party, as those two separate coalitions just blew apart in France – hence the rise of the younger centrist neo-liberal Macron.

    Meanwhile in British Columbia we will find out on June 22nd if the NDP (Labour)/Green confidence and supply agreement can get off the ground.

    The current BC Liberal (conservative) party has 43 seats and will have to elect the Speaker in order to have their Speech from the Throne read out, debated and voted on, and then they will lose that vote 42 to 44 (41 NDP/3 Green).

    But in terms of them then having their Speaker step down to be replaced by either an NDP or Green Speaker that would leave the Legislature permanently tied 43 to 43, with the Speaker constantly having to break a tie. For four years, as the supply and confidence agreement states?

    But as evidenced by the success of the Green Party in British Columbia, 16.84% of the vote and 3 seats, it is possible to make substantive gains under FPTP..

  10. Social media is a crude snapshot of real people and their opinions.
    The mainstream media have been attempting vainly to influence those opinions.

    Much on social media is shaped more acutely by the concerns of the population at large rather than in the interests of the press, it’s owners or those who seek to use it’s influence.

    This is why they often present vastly conflicting narratives.

  11. @AlexW

    “The main impetus for voters to move to smaller parties is the differential between the two main ones. If voters think they are very close then they will bleed voters from the edges from the more engaged ideologically partisan voters. So lab to greens and cons to UKIP. Of course other things can outweigh such effects where the election becomes too important to protest belief vote, brexit being a prime example.”

    ————

    Yes that’s a likely driver. Of course it’s possible peeps might vote for a minor party if the main parties are quite far apart, but both are still considered unpalatable. But dunno how often these effects occur…

  12. Polls are only important if you are thinking of holding an election. Look what happened to the last pm who relied on the polls.
    The only certainty is the uncertainty

    Lets see where they are in 2022 and even then i wont believe them.(you gov accepted)

  13. @S Thomas

    “As long as the polls are this bad tM knows she is safe. It is when Tory fortunes recover that the challenges might occur”

    Oh dear, they do say it’s not the despair that hurts it’s the unfulfilled hope that really kills. Or rather the wishful thinking!

    Amongst all the extraordinary ironies that this recent election has generated, as well as the debunking of years of received wisdom, it’s the spectacle of the winning side crashing in the polls and the losers receiving a post election honeymoon that is the most extraordinary. When has that ever happened before? Never I would have thought.

    This is why politics is such a fascinating game. On paper, the Tories won and Labour lost, but politics doesn’t conform to paper rules.

    Long term, this was an absolutely terrible election for the Tories to win in the way that they did. For Labour, the opposite. A brilliant one to lose in the manner they did.

  14. It’s unfortunate that there isn’t a crossbreak for Northern Ireland. I can’t imagine any GB party wanting to prop up such an unpopular leader/party and share in that toxicity but the DUP might not have that problem, May might be popular in NI and Corbyn could well be toxic. I imagine there will be a poll soon on how NI feels about the DUP deal, should be interesting

  15. S Thomas

    “Polls are only important if you are thinking of holding an election. Look what happened to the last pm who relied on the polls.”

    ——–

    Well the last PM to rely on the polls was the current PM…

  16. “Surely the longer TM stays leader of the Conservatives, the more damage will be done to their image? It takes much time and great effort to build a positive public image, and much less of both to destroy one.”

    ———

    In defence of S Thomas, the Tories’ polling fell into the twenties in the Omnishambles era but they came back to win…

  17. @SAM S

    Surely the longer TM stays leader of the Conservatives, the more damage will be done to their image? It takes much time and great effort to build a positive public image, and much less of both to destroy one

    The more critical element is the positive view of Corbyn and Labour. Despite what I wish to happen its unlikely that the Tory’s will risk fighting the next election with may as Leader. She will want to go asap – after the DUP deal is done I guess she will step down by the end of the summer. That will maximise the time the next leaser has before the next election – which events out of their control may cause to happen in the next 9-24months (dependent on Brexit and bi-elections).

  18. @S Thomas

    And how many By-elections will it take for T May to have no majority even with the DUP on side? One can assume there will be one or two winnable LD or Labour By Elections over the next year

  19. “In defence of S Thomas, the Tories’ polling fell into the twenties in the Omnishambles era but they came back to win…”

    They also had three years to recover and a coalition with a majority of about 76. In the 2015 win, most of their gains came from the LibDems, their own coalition partner who took a lion’s share of the blame. This time the margin is much thinner and the only real room they have for growth is in Labour held seats. It’s a rather different scenario, really.

  20. REDRICH

    Indeed, it’s pretty clear that they need to switch TM out for someone else as soon as possible. Part of the problem, it seems to me, is that there is an inherent risk of things falling apart after TM resigns, which would lead to a new election.

  21. S Thomas

    “As long as the polls are this bad tM knows she is safe. It is when Tory fortunes recover that the challenges might occur”

    I agree, so now let’s get on with Government and Brexit. Queens speech next Wednesday, Brexit talks start as scheduled on Monday.

  22. @CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    Total sample is 1729, Scotland 159 (weighted to 175). NI would be weighted to about 50 with a 95% MoE of 14%. (for Scotland it’s 8%).

  23. People are getting just a little hysterical. There will probably not be an election until 2022 unless the Conservatives are well ahead in the polls. Unless she wants to pack it all in, May will be PM for at least the next 18 months. She won’t be leader at the next election though and the party will hope to organise a smooth transition once the Brexit terms are known. The Conservatives have the numbers so will continue to be in government. They just need to remain calm and carry on.

    The polls will be terrible for the Conservatives and for May in particular, for some time but the left may overplay their hand, especially if they encourage protests and civil unrest ensues. That won’t go down as well as his supporters might think.

    Corbyn did better than expected but he lost and will have to wait until next time. It’s called democracy. Personally I’m more concerned about what Macron does with his large mandate. France could certainly be looking up (and bringing its corporate taxes down).

  24. SAM S

    Well with JC walking on water atm, the economic situation and likely turmoil over Brexit they may be hard pressed to find someone willing enough to replace her.

  25. Looking at the markets I was right to take my profits yesterday. Big drop in the Footsie 250 today.

  26. REDRICH

    Boris is always willing…

  27. RMJ1

    “People are getting just a little hysterical.”

    Absolutely.

  28. “People are getting just a little hysterical.”

    ————

    Not altogether surprising if people get excited about polls on a polling site!! And given we got knocked out the cricket, obviously liable to get hyslerical about summat else. (One notes you’re projecting hysteria onto the left in general too, expecting protests etc…)

  29. @ Carfrew

    “And given we got knocked out the cricket, obviously liable to get hyslerical about summat else.”

    I suspect there are quite a few people who are getting excited about the prospects of an India vs Pakistan final.

  30. I don’t think the mass protest that McDonald has called for is a good idea. Conservatives with a small ‘c’ will be put off. But I might be wrong

  31. ROGER BARTON and RICH.AND THE OTHER HOWARD.
    Good Evening to you.
    I have been re reading for yet another time: Austin Mitchell’s slim and beautiful booklet on the 1945 GE. ISBN: 185725 109 1. Highly recommended for these times, I think; with interviews across the political spectrum.
    Roy Jenkins used to have a pompous phrase about politicians failing to rise the level of events.

  32. Politicians blaming each other all day instead of pulling together on this terrible disaster, time for repercussions later.

  33. carfrew

    I know it was the current Pm that was the point…..

    Tories need not worry Labour will shoot themselves in the foot. Oh Look here is Labour Shadow Chancellor callling for a million people on the street to force our democratically elected PM out. I think he has mistaken us for Venezuela

    That should start getting the troops back into line. Where is my shield ? :-)

  34. 2010-2015 parliament had 21 by-elections
    2015-2017 10

    But 10-15 only had 4 Con-held by-elections and 2 of those were after UKIP switches.
    15-17 had 3 Con-held by-elections but one of those were Cameron resigning.

    The remaining Con resignations were disagreements with the Government (2), family reasons (1), and scandal (1)

    The Lab held seats were vacated for death/health (10), running for different office/new job (8), and scandal (2).

    I wonder how the age profile looks for the Conservatives. They will surely be whipped to not resign to get a different job. Scandals is much more difficult to predict.

  35. @ RMJ1

    It’s all hysterical!

  36. “I suspect there are quite a few people who are getting excited about the prospects of an India vs Pakistan final.”

    ——–

    Yes, because unlike us they didn’t get knocked out. Consequently they don’t have to get hysterical about polling instead, you see. Obviously Howard doesn’t get hysterical, he’s got an allotment. (Or in fact two, which is like cheating in the hysteria stakes…)

  37. S Thomas

    “I know it was the current Pm that was the point…..”

    ——–

    Thought you might say that!! But it’s a bit weird, talking about the last PM when in fact it’s the current one, and actually she got the polls wrong. Still, it all adds to the gaiety…

  38. Unfortunately I can’t compete with TOH and his two allotments but I do now have a potager plus some fruit bushes and a fig tree. The beans and the courgettes are looking well and the raspberries are in full production mode.

  39. Angela Rayner saying Tory HQ has asked all their mp’s if they wish to fight another GE shortly. They have a deadline of 10th July by which time to respond. September election?

  40. According to the Swingometer, LAB need an 8 point lead in order to get a majority whereas CON only need a 4 point lead.

    Yet the boundary commission plans to move things in CON favour… ?????

    Is all that correct? If so, it is a scandal.

  41. I agree a few folks are getting over-excited about Labour’s current position.

    However it is also very complacent to assume that the Tories can confidently run to 2022:
    – the unionists may choose to withdraw from the C&S arrangement, either because they fall out with May/Tories or simply because it becomes electorally profitable for them to do so.
    – by-elections may erode the Tory/DUP majority well before 2022. Seriously unpopular governments lose almost all their by-election defences.
    – Brexit may well split the Tories; a ‘soft’ Brexit will be rejected by the ‘headbangers’ (copyright J Major), whereas a ‘hard’ Brexit will be unacceptable to the business-aligned Tories and the handful of soft centre Tories. It’s very hard to see how they can formulate a solution that everyone accepts…

    All things considered I would be amazed if the Tories survive in government beyond 2020.

  42. DAVID IN FRANCE

    See AW’s posts earlier in the thread.

  43. @ Mike Pearce

    Source?

  44. Mike

    brilliant tactic. Hardball.TM saying if you dont back me i will call election and prepare to be destroyed.

  45. @ Mike Pearce

    Angela Rayner….. I know. Where did you see this?

    [The source appears to be Guido, and the tale appears to have been mangled in the telling. It’s not the MPs and it’s not candidates, it’s the CCHQ candidates *list* (i.e. the list of approved people you need to be on in order to apply to be selected as the Conservative candidate for a Constituency). After every election the Conservative party prune this list of deadwood – the deadline is the time when people currently on the list have to tell CCHQ whether or not they want to stay on it. This normally takes place a couple of months after the election, so this is swifter than usual… but not enough that couldn’t just be a rather more prudent approach than last time (IIRC the Tory party were caught a bit short by the snap election and didn’t have enough people on the candidate list, so probably want to avoid repeating the mistake by getting a move on) – AW]

  46. @S Thomas

    “that was my point. But i am not sure she got the polls wrong. Many polls were wrong. I am not sure that you wish to blame her for the mistakes of the polling industry.”

    ——–

    Yes, obviously you don’t think she got the polls wrong, you were saying how well she was doing! This is why it doesn’t make much sense to use her as an example to chide others for taking too much succour from the polls…

  47. Erik – “I wonder how the age profile looks for the Conservatives.”

    The following gives the age profiles for all the parties for the 2015 Parliament:

    http://parliamentarycandidates.org/news/the-age-of-the-new-parliament/

    The Tories had a younger profile than Labour. (52% were under 50, while 41% of Lab were under 50). Of course the new intake might have changed things a bit – but I’d imagine most of the new MPs were youngish.

  48. @S THOMAS

    “brilliant tactic. Hardball.TM saying if you dont back me i will call election and prepare to be destroyed.”

    ——-

    Yep, it’s deja vu, it’s John Major, back me or sack me, backs against the wall stuff!!

  49. Fake news unless a reliable source is provided!

  50. @CANDY

    Thank you. The interesting number is really the “over 70” demographic where tories had only 8 to Labours 16. Labour in general with a more even spread where the Conservatives are bunched around 40-59.

    In conclusion I would not count on that many Tory members resigning due to health reasons to generate enough by-elections to force the government ot of office before 2022.

    Left is really some unexpected scandal or infighting (likely with or over DUP) or that it looks like they’ll win. But maybe they learned their lesson on that one.

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