New swingometers

A brief note – I’ve updated the two graphical swingometers on the site so they are based on the 2017 election results. The basic version is here, and the fancy version that lets you put in separate Welsh and Scottish figures is here (the old version without the map isn’t yet updated).


828 Responses to “New swingometers”

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  1. This Westminster polling drought is becoming intolerable. Come on YouGov! :-)

  2. @ Mike Pearce

    Survation learnt their lesson from 2015 and were rewarded handsomely for doing so.

    Despite what the data were appearing to show, most of us found it difficult to believe the turnout trends were truly happening (with notable exceptions like DrMibbles and Rudyard).

  3. I was a believer. ;-)

  4. TRIGGUY

    Personally, I agree that thanks to the year’s delay in beginning the negotiations a 2nd referendum is probably impractical. IMO, a 2nd early UK GE is less unlikely, but would have much the same effect.

  5. @ MIKE PEARCE – I tend to agree. We’d almost certainly need to go through a 2nd GE to see it that resolved the need for one party to get a comfortable enough majority to get through the difficult compromises required to get Brexit through parliament. Even if LAB won a small majority (ie gained 60 seats) I don’t know if that would be enough without SNP/LDEM support. After one crack at it each a 3rd option (ie national govt) would be preferable to a 3rd GE (IMHO) with the understanding a new GE would happen as soon as Brexit was over.

    @ JONESINBANGOR – I agree, the right of the CON party (guesstimates I’ve seen are they number at least 20, probably more like 30+) have the power to scupper a deal and since they actively want the default no deal outcome that is alarming (IMHO!). If LAB link up (indirectly) with right element of CON party and vote down parts of the Brexit legislation as/when it passes HoC we risk indirectly getting the rightCON/UKIP style Brexit that few people want (according to the polls). We should not ignore the Soft Brexit stance of the Lords either and their potential to indirectly get a no deal outcome with several rounds of ping-pong. The clock is ticking!!

    IMHO the 2nd ref question is risking wasting a lot of time to get a risky answer that sorely tests the patience of EU27 while we get our act together – businesses might be less patient with their relocation plans! How you even phrase a 2nd ref question(s) and whether or not you get EU27 permission to stall Brexit before/after asking the question(s) is a mine field. LSE have written lots of info on the subject. One such piece here:
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/09/second-referendum/

    Out for rest of the day. Good chatting, appreciate everyones thoughts and inputs. Speak soon.

  6. GUYMONDE

    I agree entirely re fire drills. Since the 1980s, my UK work was always freelance but before that successive employers I worked for had regular fire drills. The UN agency I worked for from the 1990s and for whom I still do the odd bit of work for still have such drills, albeit monthly with the date or time not being announced in advance.

    Health and safety gone comatose, perhaps?

  7. @BZ
    Watching th Sunday Politics I’m reminded: on top of fire drills, alarm tests etc we were also obliged to fit sprinklers.
    I know this has naff all to do with polling, but the whole regime seems quite mad.

  8. Fire drills and alarm tests are still very much common place in offices. I have had fire drills in some apartment blocks I’ve lived in as well, although I agree that this should be done in all large residential buildings.

    To be fair to the UK, I think while fire regulation needs to be reviewed and there are improvements that could be made, we have ahead of many countries in taking it seriously.

    I’ve actually been shocked when I’ve lived in some other Western European countries by the lack of fire alarms and the fact that there is any debate at all about whether they are a good thing (in one place I was told off by a housemate for having the audacity to buy one myself as he doesn’t like the noise when they go off).

    In France it’s only been required to have a fire alarm in residential buildings since 2015! and at that time it was estimated only 15% had a fire alarm. I find that shocking.

  9. GUYMONDE @ BZ

    Agreed.

    SSSIMON

    A YouGov poll would certainly be good news, but the Survation link I posted above ends with:

    We will be able to provide an update on whether the current unstable situation regarding government formation and recent tragic events are affecting voting intention this evening.

    Using the same methodology as our accurate General Election polling we will be providing an update on behalf of Good Morning Britain for their Monday morning output.

  10. @Trevor Warne

    “…would be preferable to a 3rd GE (IMHO) ”

    You would say that, you just like elections. To be honest, so do I. But I doubt most of the electorate would be very keen.

  11. TRIGGUY @ TREVOR WARNE

    We could do with some polling on that, but whichever side of a 2nd referendum won, we might need a 2nd GE to get it through the Westminster parliament.

  12. On cladding:
    It is possible for cladding to be fire retardant but still very dangerous if there is an uninterrupted gap between cladding and the building.
    For me, the speed with which the fire appeared to spread up the building suggests this may have been the case, but time will tell…

  13. @Trevor Warne

    I see no reason why we might not have one or two more elections in this decade depending on how unstable the Con-DUP S&C is.

    There is a precedent for 5 elections in a decade (the 1830s – plus there were 7 year Parliaments back then!), we’ve had 4 elections in the 1950s and the 1970s.

    The FTPA does theoretically make Parliamentary terms more stable. We will see if that’s true in practice.

    Your friend’s idea perhaps has merit in a situation where we faced an intractable national emergency.

  14. COLIN
    “-the value of a Public Enquiry”

    Or of a coroner’s inquest – which may come sooner.

  15. JONESINBANGOR
    It’s just someone needs to tell David Davis, Jacon Rees Mogg, John Redwood and Liam Fox!!

    Does anyone have the numbers of Con MPs in the Davis &co leavers group?

    Also worth noting that SCon’s Davidson is committed to staying in the Single Market, though how much control she has over her 13 MPs is another matter entirely. Given that she probably wants to retain those MPs for the future and that Scotland voted remain that’s probably quite high on her to do list.

  16. I am intrigued as to how you would ensure that private individuals, living in their own homes, would take part in a fire drill and what possible sanctions you could bring to bear on those who refused to bother.

    It does seem that one of the major criticisms of the response to the fire is that there is no identifiable person, or body, in charge. I have to say that looking from the outside, not being a Londoner, I’m not sure who that should be. Presumably there are protocols for decision making in disasters or emergencies such as this with the Police being in overall charge but the detailed response will depend on who has the relevant expert staff to deploy. With the local council not directly employing housing staff, they may not be in a position to provide what is needed. There should be an emergency plan in existence identifying everyone’s responsibilities. Someone needs to look at it.

    I well remember a serious flooding incident in my area when I was a councillor. The County council received a lot of criticism for not helping, while the fire service received huge praise. The irony is that the fire service was part of the council and the other council staff deployed opperated under the direction of the chief fire officer who saw it as his duty to keep “civilian” staff out of harms way.

  17. SSSIMON

    This Westminster polling drought is becoming intolerable. Come on YouGov! :-)

    To be fair there aren’t usually many VI polls immediately after an election. After 2015 there was only an immediate post-election MoS one (as there was last Sunday):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2015

    and then nothing till much later in the month from YouGov and ComRes. Obviously there will be a lot of soul-searching going on from everyone except Survation (as there was last time) and presumably adjustment to weighting and methods.

    As Barbazenzero notes at the end of their Brexit report for the MoS:

    http://mailchi.mp/survation/post-election-poll-for-the-mail-on-sunday-1118637?e=c37db807f4

    Survation say we should have something later on, though presumably from a different survey.

  18. SEA CHANGE @ TREVOR WARNE
    The FTPA does theoretically make Parliamentary terms more stable. We will see if that’s true in practice.

    By separating defeats on individual votes from the very specific confidence vote required for a fresh UK GE, it may have significant influence in the new parliament.

    Even if they dislike it, the DUP will probably abstain on the QS rather vote against, but would be much less likely to support anything which threatened the Belfast Agreement, such as the imposition of a hard Irish border. Perhaps not as specifically as the SCons, an EEA arrangement seems to be what they are aiming for.

  19. JOHN PILGRIM

    Indeed-both , one presumes-though I pick up a suggestion from Lammy & others that Labour now thinks a Public Enquiry will be a cover up of some sort.

    I think the only hyperventilation which is appropriate or understandable is that from victims of this horror. Everyone else should just wait for due process now & press for accountability.

    I am tired of politicians coming on the telly and explaining how awful it was…………I fu**ing well know it was !

    The Local Council-if they really have been replaced by Central Government officials & The Red Cross, should presumably resign en mass?.

    I hope TM takes some comfort from this interview:-

    http://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-welled-up-at-meeting-with-grenfell-fire-survivors-10919087

    ….but fear that since Dianna’s death, the people seem to demand overt public expressions of angst as evidence of sympathy. So TM , who simply isn’t like that, can only try to be seen to sort it out. Her acceptance of personal responsibility for the conduct & outcome of the Public Enquiry have gone unreported.
    Ah those heady days when she was praised by no less a campaigner than Andy Burnham for her response to the Hillsborough victims.

    :-
    “Chairman of the Hillsborough Family Support Group Margaret Aspinall told the ECHO she was happy Ms May would be the country’s next Prime Minister.
    She said: “Everything she has promised us she has fulfilled.
    “We’ve met her predecessors and no one, apart from Alan Johnson, listened to us at all.
    “When we got a Conservative government we didn’t know how things would pan out but she has done even more for us than she said she would.”

    Liverpool Echo.

    All forgotten now-” a week is a long time in politics” as a pipe smoker once said.

  20. RMJ1

    Who is in charge , is a question that has been raised in all this mornings tv politics shows.

    Seems incredible doesn’t it?-presumably it will feature strongly in the Public Enquiry.

  21. It’s an Inquiry with an I.

    We use inquiry for investigations and enquiry for general information seeking.

  22. SEA CHANGE

    So it is-ta :-)

  23. Hopefully we will see approval ratings for the main figures soon. Will be interesting to see the numbers for Khan, he hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory over the last week and it’s only a matter of time before serious questions about his capabilities are asked

  24. @BZ “Even if they dislike it, the DUP will probably abstain on the QS rather vote against, but would be much less likely to support anything which threatened the Belfast Agreement, such as the imposition of a hard Irish border. Perhaps not as specifically as the SCons, an EEA arrangement seems to be what they are aiming for.”

    Agreed – though as the Chancellor has just stated we are leaving the single market and customs union but will probably seek 2-3 year transisionary arrangements. It’s the only solution to respect the Referendum and give us time to prepare business in the U.K. And EU for a new relationship and to make sure whatever solution is put in place to protect the Anglo-Irish Agreement.

    I just hope the EU is pragmatic and doesn’t ask for 100+ Billion which would destroy negotiations and would very likely turn public opinion against any agreement which would be destructive to all parties. The Irish certainly need to put pressure on the EU to be realistic in their financial demands.

  25. @Sea Change

    “Well, I do agree with you, there are no simple answers.

    Let me give you an example of what goes on in the real-world.

    I’m in the Philippines looking at the incentives for starting a new export manufacturing plant at the moment. Their special economic zones give you 0% corporation tax for between 4 and 9 years. Most would qualify for 6 years. After that, it’s a 5% flat Gross Profit tax. There are no other taxes. No customs taxes, no VAT on anything including utilities, simplified paperwork, no local taxes. The only tax you have to pay is a capped $40 USD social security per employee per month.

    ———––

    Yes, there are a few things you’ve left out of your “real world” scenario.

    Aside from the obvious concerns over a race to the bottom, there is also the matter of how the taxation gets used. If it just gets tossed into a skip, that’s one thing, but conventionally modern governments might invest in infrastructure, education, research, and projects like satellite communicatons, internet etc. that can be very attractive to business.

    Thus it’s not just the level of taxation, but benefits it secures for business, that determines whether to move elsewhere. This is how countries can continue to attract business despite higher tax rates.

    It’s also why many bankers etc. weren’t keen to shift operations to lower tax regimes. They like living in a modern city with lots of investment. There’s also the network effect if wanting to stay among others in the industry.

    .

  26. @Colin

    No worries. Have agreed with much of what you have written. Lazslo as well!

    There has been a lot of reflection on positions on UKPR from all sides over the last couple of months in general and it is better for it.

  27. @Carfrew –

    there would be less of a race to the bottom if we focussed on taxing the individual rather than making disincentives for companies to employ individuals so they can pay tax. I did qualify the rest of my post in that manner. In a globalised world all that I am saying will eventually happen through an unending process of begger thy neighbour anyhow!

    The remedy I suggest will shortcut that process

  28. SEA CHANGE @BZ
    Agreed – though as the Chancellor has just stated we are leaving the single market and customs union but will probably seek 2-3 year transisionary arrangements.

    I suspect that the late Mandy Rice-Davies applies: Well, he would, wouldn’t he?

    He’s clearly trying to keep his party together. That’s where the FTPA will be useful to both the DUP and the SCons, since they would be able to vote down anything they like without risking a fresh GE, as will the LDs.

    Obviously we’ll have to wait and see whether Lab will support however many Cons can be mustered to vote for leaving either or both.

  29. @BZ “He’s clearly trying to keep his party together. That’s where the FTPA will be useful to both the DUP and the SCons, since they would be able to vote down anything they like without risking a fresh GE, as will the LDs. ”

    I doubt it. The Brexit deal would almost certainly be made a motion of confidence by the Government.

  30. Are there any polls on the various alternatives i.e. EEA v Customs Union v Hard Brexit?

  31. Colin

    I suspect that the local authority would say they were in charge however if we step back from the usual blame game we are talking about several hundred people being rehoused in a small area in London .
    The problem I suspect has been exasperated by council staff being confronted not only with rehousing people difficult enough in London but people who do not wish to be relocated out of there small part of London and who have been traumatised by loss of home and loved ones.
    Added on top of that they are surrounded by people only to willing to exploit their trauma for political ends I would say that was a very difficult scenario to work in .
    We live in a world we’re we expect authority to be able to fix things almost with a flick of a wrist and normally this would happen but on this occasion the council staff and the Government have needed time to react to figure out what is best for those tenants ,because of the scale of the disaster I’m sure that would have applied to whoever was running the country .I’m equally sure that this will be resolved and the majority of those tenants will move on with there lives once they have had time to grieve out of the public limelight.

  32. @ Andrew111 12.44pm

    “”It is possible for cladding to be fire retardant but still very dangerous if there is an uninterrupted gap between cladding and the building.””

    Yes that says things clearly.

    And maybe what I posted at 10.05 am from a 2016 BRE Report also explains, but which message has only just now been released from moderation.

    https://www.bre.co.uk/filelibrary/Fire%20and%20Security/FI—External-Fire-Spread-Part-1.pdf

    As for tests of alarms and fire drills, we certainly still have them in NE Scotland.

    Our church has a timed “practice” at the end of a service each June before schools break up and attendance is less. So everyone of our 100-120 gets out in less than 1 min 30 sec from the alarm going.

    And in the Aberdeen University tower-block library there are test soundings of alarms (weekly?) prefaced by
    loud messages not to vacate the building “this is a test”.

  33. SEA CHANGE
    I doubt it. The Brexit deal would almost certainly be made a motion of confidence by the Government.

    You seem to have forgotten that the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 no longer supports motions of confidence leading to a dissolution, unless in the specific form of the act.

    The relevant section is on p3 of the PDF:

    (1) An early parliamentary general election is to take place if—
    (a) the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (2), and
    (b) if the motion is passed on a division, the number of members who vote in favour of the motion is a number equal to or greater than two thirds of the number of seats in the House (including vacant seats).
    (2) The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (1)(a) is—
    “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.”
    (3) An early parliamentary general election is also to take place if—
    (a) the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (4), and
    (b) the period of 14 days after the day on which that motion is passed ends without the House passing a motion in the form set out in subsection (5).
    (4) The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(a) is—
    “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.”
    (5) The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(b) is—
    “That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.”

    We reached where we are now because Lab supported the dissolution and the motion got the two thirds majority required in (1)(b).

    In the new HoC, Lab may well support another such motion if they think they’ll win, but any other defeat will require the alternative (3) to (5) option, which has much less chance of success.

    That in turn means that the Con government will actually have to listen to the rest of the HoC for a change.

  34. @Sea Change

    “there would be less of a race to the bottom if we focussed on taxing the individual rather than making disincentives for companies to employ individuals so they can pay tax. I did qualify the rest of my post in that manner. In a globalised world all that I am saying will eventually happen through an unending process of begger thy neighbour anyhow!
    The remedy I suggest will shortcut that process”

    ——–

    You’re just restating your point, ignoring the issues I pointed out with it.

    You haven’t shown how it would avoid a race to the bottom, since there would be an incentive to reduce shareholder taxation also to attract more shareholder investment. (Unless as I said you keep taxes higher to reinvest in infrastructure and other benefits, but that makes tax cuts less attractive)

    You have also ignored the several OTHER issues with ditching coroporate taxation, e.g. reclassifying income, limited liability, too big to fail etc.

  35. @BZ

    Technically true, but in practice doubtful. Surely the Government could put a provision in a bill that simply states that if it is voted down then this triggers a motion of confidence under the wording of the FTPA.

    The government wants to repeal the EC 1972 Act. It needs Parliament’s agreement for that. However, It does not need Parliament’s agreement fo accept the final negotiated settlement. A curious anomaly of the UK system for sure.

  36. @Carfrew

    I think we are talking across purposes. I wish to shift all taxation direct to individuals to wipe out the very race to the bottom you decry. It is hugely inefficient to tax corporations. Just like it is ridiculous to tax public servants who are paid for by…taxation. Again totally inefficient.

  37. @Sea Change

    We’re not at cross purposes. You’re just ignoring my post entirely…

    If you put the corporate tax burden directly into shareholders you don’t eliminate the race to the bottom, you disincentise investing in shares instead unless you keep cutting the tax to compete. Unless you keep taxes higher and invest in infrastructure, etc. You haven’t addressed that…

    And ditching coroporation tax allows the wealthy to reclassify income, loses the ability to keep profits in check and hence buying government in check, or becoming too big to fail. This isn’t “cross purposes”, these are flaws you have not addressed. Of course you don’t have to, bit of course it undermines the case rather…

  38. SEA CHANGE @ BZ
    Technically true, but in practice doubtful. Surely the Government could put a provision in a bill that simply states that if it is voted down then this triggers a motion of confidence under the wording of the FTPA.

    Indeed they could, but that would need to be a separate vote using the FTPA wording. To use the example I was thinking of, both DUP & SCon could vote down the bill [or perhaps a specific amendment to it], but vote to keep Con in power on the confidence vote, as could other dissenters such as Con remainers/leavers depending on their views on any given matter.

    I am well aware that the Cons want to repeal the FTPA, but I don’t think they’ll get support for it in the current Westminster parliament from either house.

  39. Guymonde

    The difference between preparations for a fire in an office block and a residential block is to do with the way they are internally structured. In a residential block any fire within an individual flat is supposed to be contained by fire doors and other methods from spreading to adjacent flats (vertically and horizontally)[1]. This should mean that there is plenty of time for the fire brigade to tackle the blaze and stop it spreading – small fires may even burn themselves out.

    This is why the immediate advice is for people to stay within their apartments and only evacuate (if at all) under guidance from the fire brigade when they arrive. Otherwise a rushed exit may actually cause more casualties than people staying put. In contrast most modern office buildings are open plan to some extent, so the same thing cannot apply and the priority is to get those inside out as quickly as possible.

    In this case it is alleged both that the internal refurbishment work had destroyed the barriers to fire spreading and that the new cladding actually speeded up the process. This suggests that evacuation advice may have to be changed if similar factors are present in other buildings.

    The problem for the government is that this isn’t a new problem. The Lakanal House fire showed similar faults though it didn’t spread as disastrously (only six deaths) and there are accusations that the calls for changes from the Inquest:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/mar/28/lakanal-house-fire-deaths-prevented

    have since been ignored.

    [1] I’ve read somewhere that the fire is meant to be contained for four hours.

  40. COLIN

    “I am a critic of her disastrous GE campaign . And this event just highlights for me the madness of making that campaign a request to back the PM personally, when the PM has no public personality.”

    It was both disastrous and very, very odd. I don’t know who’s cunning plan it was initially but why did TM go along with it?

    If someone had suggested to me that I promote my concerts by doing exhibitions of my juggling skills then I think it would definitely occur to me to say:

    “But I can’t juggle.”

  41. I think a big difficulty now is that the “stay put” advice is going to be very difficult to justify going forward, especially if it can’t be applied uniformly across these sorts of buildings.

    But if the advise is changed to evacuate immediately, you have the problem that many of these buildings are not designed for mass evacuation and would be potentially dangerous in other ways.

    The elephant in the room is that I suspect that these buildings are no longer fit for purpose and in reality should be condemned, but given the number of these, the logistics of relocating people would be a nightmare.

    In all honesty, I don’t understand why refurbishment of these buildings was ever seen as a smart idea in London from any sense. Not only are tower blocks poor buildings, but ironically, despite their height they tend to be very inefficient space and tend to have mounds of wasted space surrounding them. You could probably build many more flats on their “true” footprint with less height, which would surely make sense in London boroughs with stupidly high land and property values, as they could increase the absolute numbers of social housing while tagging on enough private flats to help fund the scheme.

  42. PAUL CROFT

    @”but why did TM go along with it?”

    The key question. Historians will tell us the answer I suppose.

  43. AW

    Fair enough !

  44. Come on someone – let’s have a poll published – I’m getting bored within an echo chamber of everyone and their dog having a view on incredible events but no scientific taking of the public pulse!!!!!

  45. Anyone know what time survation usually publishes their polls? I am getting desperate. Shall we try to predict its headline VI?

  46. Apparently Jo Swinson will not stand for leader of the LibDems.
    Davey, Lamb or Cable then…

  47. Bigfatron

    That’s surprising

  48. “TONY DEAN
    Come on someone – let’s have a poll published – I’m getting bored within an echo chamber of everyone and their dog having a view on incredible events but no scientific taking of the public pulse!!!!!”

    Rosie says: “Free speech for dogs. ta very much”.

  49. @cambridgerachel

    Difficult to lead a UK party from anything other than an English constituency these days I think.

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