New swingometers

A brief note – I’ve updated the two graphical swingometers on the site so they are based on the 2017 election results. The basic version is here, and the fancy version that lets you put in separate Welsh and Scottish figures is here (the old version without the map isn’t yet updated).


828 Responses to “New swingometers”

1 13 14 15 16 17
  1. “Boy there are some real inflammatory comments on here tonight”

    ——–

    Though given the nature of the subject matter, it’s been pretty civilised really. And it’s enlightening to read the different takes on how opinion might be shaped.

  2. @KESTER LEEK “Leadsom had announced they are scrapping the Queen’s Speech next year to allow for a two year parliament.
    Thoughts on the practical and political implications of this, of any, would be appreciated from the more knowledgeable denizens of UKPR.”

    They’ll do well to get Brexit and the GR Bill done within 2 years with all the horsetrading of a minority administration anyway in my view.

    @Carfrew “Well they might avoid a chunk of the tax if they invest rather than taking more profits, and that investment can even benefit consumers.”

    If they don’t invest then competition will catch up with them and they will be put out of business. The problem comes when there is corrupt collusion with Government whereby unfair advantages are gained and monopolies get formed.

    I have always thought there should be 0% corporation tax and that dividends (and capital gains) should be charged at the marginal rate of personal tax.You could also implement a “fringe benefits tax” whereby the use of corporate assets for personal benefit should be taxed at the marginal rate as well.

    That would go a very long way to levelling the playing field if that was implemented.

    If you wanted to you could also implement a non-investment tax, whereby undistributed or un-reinvested profits were taxed at the marginal rate after a set time period without a government waiver.

  3. It does seem that some of Theresa’s fans are keen to stress that she is at times treated unfairly.

    No doubt, but this is to dodge what issues that remain that might be more awkward to dismiss as unfair. It also ignores the fact that other parties suffer injustices also and if you’re not bothered much about that it rather undermines the complaint.

  4. @Sea Change

    “If they don’t invest then competition will catch up with them and they will be put out of business. The problem comes when there is corrupt collusion with Government whereby unfair advantages are gained and monopolies get formed.”

    —————

    Whether competition catches up depends on things like barriers to entry, or maybe instead of investing in better product or efficiencies they’ll just buy up the rivals to eradicate competition and keep prices high etc.

    The essential point is that under Capitalism, there’s a big incentive for capital to rig things and escape competition and free markets, so you often can’t depend on free markets and competition to fix things naturally. Collusion with government is one of a number of ways this happens, many of which do not require government assistance, but that’s not an argument against corporation tax, but an argument against collusion.

    I have to say I haven’t thought through the different ways one might implement such taxation, but immediately one wonders whether if you just tax the shareholders not the profits, management might not feel very invested. Incidentally, your concern about collusion is more likely to arise if you don’t bleed off some excess profit in tax, otherwise that money might get used to lobby or even buy off government, enabling the collusion you worry about. It’s dangerous to let state or orivate sector get too powerful.

  5. state or private sector

  6. @ Sea Change

    Regarding taxation and Brexit. What are the chances that the Government will stop UK corporate taxes being exported to companies EU subsidiaries ?

    At the moment, a company can use UK profits to support any businesses within the same group that operate in EU mainland countries. Do you think that will stop and UK Government will expect tax to be paid on UK operating profits ?

    It is an important issue, as if Government does not collect sufficient tax from business profits, then it has to come from other sources.

  7. @R Huckle
    “Regarding taxation and Brexit. What are the chances that the Government will stop UK corporate taxes being exported to companies EU subsidiaries ? At the moment, a company can use UK profits to support any businesses within the same group that operate in EU mainland countries. Do you think that will stop and UK Government will expect tax to be paid on UK operating profits ?”

    Those are very good questions and I really have no clue at this point, we don’t know what the Government’s wider parameters are and indeed what the EU’s plan is. We are still at the “Chinese Whispers” stage. I would have thought however that Brexit will do damage to the trading relationships with EU and if they do prevent (or significantly tighten) Head Office support of its subsidiaries that will exacerbate the problem.

    I suspect transitionary arrangements will be put in place while that kind of detail is worked out.

    @Carfrew “The essential point is that under Capitalism, there’s a big incentive for capital to rig things and escape competition and free markets, so you often can’t depend on free markets and competition to fix things naturally. Collusion with government is one of a number of ways this happens, many of which do not require government assistance, but that’s not an argument against corporation tax, but an argument against collusion.”

    Well, I do agree with you, there are no simple answers.

    Let me give you an example of what goes on in the real-world.

    I’m in the Philippines looking at the incentives for starting a new export manufacturing plant at the moment. Their special economic zones give you 0% corporation tax for between 4 and 9 years. Most would qualify for 6 years. After that, it’s a 5% flat Gross Profit tax. There are no other taxes. No customs taxes, no VAT on anything including utilities, simplified paperwork, no local taxes. The only tax you have to pay is a capped $40 USD social security per employee per month.

    The whole point of this is to incentivise Capital to be used to create employment. And the employees are the ones who are taxed.

    Obviously, the UK and the West cannot compete in non-high-tech manufacturing but in high-tech manufacturing, technology and services we will be competing with others.

    It is inconceivable to me that other governments will not follow what is going on in Asia to keep their populations employed on a world-wide scale. Through in automation and the problem becomes even more chronic.

    I am coming round to the belief that degrees and technical diplomas that have a direct path to employment in high-tech manufacturing, technology and services should perhaps be funded by Government and that if you want to do media studies, humanities etc then you pay for those.

  8. through = throw

  9. @Garj

    My own experience of building control is very similar to that you have described.

  10. I haven’t seen new Survation poll yet but they are jumping on the MRP bandwagon and (rightly) claiming some glory for their polling:
    http://survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/

    P.S. IMHO a 2yr parliament suggests a very stripped down Queen’s speech this year and the necessary focus on delivering Brexit but forgetting any other non-essential or contentious legislation. CON will probably feel the public backlash in the polls through the Brexit process and then in the next GE but if MPs from all parties want to serve the country rather than continue point scoring we need to form a govt rather than see the Brexit clock tick away to the cliff-edge default (IMHO). Still holding out a naive 0.001% hope for a national government!

  11. @ Sea Change

    I don’t think a Tory Government would stop companies using their own money to invest in their EU based operations Therefore there would be no change to the current situation, other than incentives for more UK investment. The question is whether the EU would introduce measures which might not be helpful to the UK and cause a trade/tax war between the two. I could see the EU look to encourage UK based companies to move operations to the EU.

    Personally, i don’t think Brexit will happen or if it does, it will be watered down to a Norway version. According to recent polling, 65% of people favour a ‘softer’ Brexit which might include continued EU customs membership. I don’t think any real studies have been done about consequences of leaving single market and EU customs area. I think most people would want to know likely affect on cost of living, jobs etc. Once the reality is in peoples faces, then there will be demand for another referendum, which i think will take place before the 2 year Article 50 period expires.

  12. Found it! Excel file link from here:
    http://survation.com/mos-june-17th-2/

  13. @ Popeye

    The intemperate comments on Grenfell seem to have subsided, so I think it is best that I don’t reply to your question in case it set them off again.

  14. CHRIS RILEY
    6.45 pm “I also feel for the poor sods in council middle management who were simply following instructions who are going to be scapegoated here.”

    I note the BBC report this a.m.:
    Nicholas Paget-Brown [Kensignton and Chelsea Council Leader] said he would co-operate “in full” with the government’s inquiry into the Grenfell Tower disaster and any other investigations.
    Well, I should hope so, and should have thought that was statutory. This and your point raise an aspect which I believe is most salient to public concern with the politics of
    Your question and this health and safety management in social housing: that of the linkage of central government policy and legislation with local government responsibility and resourcing, and self-regulation in the private sector in the procurement of building and mantenance of social housing. When the questions have been posed and answered one will be to what extent and in detail how policy and legislation of successive governments have failed to ensure governance of good practice and safety in the provision of social housing,, and of tower blocks in particular – in the case of Grenfell for the proivision of low-cost housing for a minority low income group in an area of affluence and high cost prestige housing?

  15. Sorry – with the politics of housing provision.

  16. Maybe when Mr Wells gets time, and he releases me from auto-mod so he can read this (:-)), we may get to have a look in greater detail at some of the post-election polling YouGov have done, especially on the demographic basis of voting behaviours revealed in the 2017 GE. These age related voting behaviours have been established for some time but were accentuated and emphasised in stark relief on June 8th with extraordinary high percentages (80%+) of Over 70s voting Tory and similar proportions of 18-24 year olds voting Labour. It looks like you’ve got to get to the Over 50s before you find an an age band where the Tories hold sway and Over 60s before their lead becomes anything like large.

    Apparently, the tipping point for the likelihood to vote Tory rose from 34 in 2015 to 47 in 2017. That is indeed an extraordinary jump if true.

    It’s been said before, but we are increasingly becoming a divided nation, by party, region and age.

  17. Paul Coft

    “I actually feel rather sorry for Theresa May by the way. The idea that because someone perhaps finds it hard to demonstrate their feelings in public should never – without strong and conclusive evidence – be taken to mean that they don’t have them, in my view.”

    Good post Paul, I am sure that TM does have great feelings of sadness and sympathy. She belongs to a generation as do I (although I am 16 years older) that do not generally express emotion in public, it goes back to the war and it’s aftermath.

    Since I feel UK politics borders on the “Politics of the Absurd” at the moment I am posting very little. In any event with the weather at the moment, there has been much to do in the garden and at our allotments.

    As always music keeps me on the “straight and narrow”, something I think you will understand. I’m listening to Dvorak’s string quartet no 12 The American, surblime music and sheer delight to lift the spirits.

  18. Survation really having a not-very-subtle go at YouGov in that post. Quite right too.

    YouGov herded their main poll then had the audacity to crow about accuracy after the election. A 7 point gap is not accurate and the herding was both cynical and opportunistic – ensuring they could claim ‘victory’ whatever the outcome might be. And they were not the only ones.

    What makes it worse, as I posted about extensively on here at the time, is that the source of error in the polls (suppression of young people turnout) was blindingly obvious and entirely preventable.

    The MRP model was a big success but for more traditional political polling I will only be paying attention to Survation going forward. The courage they showed in not herding and the confidence they had in their own approach was admirable.

  19. I see chopper Wells is out on these moors !

  20. @R Huckle ” According to recent polling, 65% of people favour a ‘softer’ Brexit which might include continued EU customs membership. I don’t think any real studies have been done about consequences of leaving single market and EU customs area. I think most people would want to know likely affect on cost of living, jobs etc. Once the reality is in peoples faces, then there will be demand for another referendum, which i think will take place before the 2 year Article 50 period expires.”

    The issue is one of have their cake and eat it. People naturally say we should continue to have complete frictionless Free Trade (soft/no Brexit single market). At the same time, they say there should be controls on EU immigration (“hard” Brexit no single market).

    The real problem is UK politicians have been fundamentally dishonest with the electorate about the real nature of the EU project for almost 60 years. The People still believe that it is essentially a trading arrangement. The whole Remain campaign was based on this falsehood and did not address the future for this country inside the growing superstructure of a federated unified state. That’s not to say the Leave campaign didn’t do the same on the details of a vision as an independent trading nation state.

    In any case, the idea that we can just blithely agree to remain in the EU if we don’t like the prospect of the divorce after the negotiations are complete is frankly naive, to say the least.

    The EU would extract a huge price towards their final goal. No rebate? Commitment to joining the Euro? EU security and military? Removal of all opt-outs?

    There will be a new integrationist treaty whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations in any case as has been signalled by Paris and Berlin.

    I would go as far as saying, that if MPs decide to essentially overturn the Referendum then there will be real trouble ahead.

  21. @R Huckle ” According to recent polling, 65% of people favour a ‘softer’ Brexit which might include continued EU customs membership. I don’t think any real studies have been done about consequences of leaving single market and EU customs area. I think most people would want to know likely affect on cost of living, jobs etc. Once the reality is in peoples faces, then there will be demand for another referendum, which i think will take place before the 2 year Article 50 period expires.”

    The issue is one of have their cake and eat it. People naturally say we should continue to have complete frictionless Free Trade (soft/no Brexit single market). At the same time, they say there should be controls on EU immigration (“hard” Brexit no single market).

    The real problem is UK politicians have been fundamentally dis-honest with the electorate about the real nature of the EU project for almost 60 years. The People still believe that it is essentially a trading arrangement.

    The whole Remain campaign was based on this false-hood and did not address the future for this country inside the growing superstructure of a federated unified state. That’s not to say the Leave campaign didn’t do the same on the details of a vision as an independent trading nation state.

    In any case, the idea that we can just blithely agree to remain in the EU if we don’t like the prospect of the divorce after the negotiations are complete is frankly naive, to say the least.

    The EU would extract a huge price towards their final goal. No rebate? Commitment to joining the Euro? EU security and military? Removal of all opt-outs?

    There will be a new integrationist treaty whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations in any case as has been signalled by Paris and Berlin.
    I would go as far as saying, that if MPs decide to essentially overturn the Referendum then there will be real trouble ahead.

  22. The survation posts quotes me on this forum but attributes it to Henry!!

    I demand a correction :(

  23. I’ve taken a look at the Survation poll on EU Customs Union, thanks to the link set up by Trevor Warne.

    The questioning for the headline figures from that poll should be a case study at opinion poll school in how not to ask poll questions.

    Q1. Being a member of the EU’s Customs Union, means international trade deals are negotiated at EU level and our trade within the EU is free of any charges or restrictions However, this also means that the UK cannot negotiate its own trade deals with other.

    (a) 27% – Leave the customs union – meaning UK companies would have no automatic right to free trade with the EU and EU companies would have no automatic right to free trade with the UK
    (b) 37% – Paying a fee to the EU for access to this “customs union” EU companies would also then have an automatic right to free trade with UK companies UK companies would have an automatic right to free trade with the EU
    (c) 25% – Stop Brexit Negotiations altogether and work to remain in the EU
    (d) 11% – Dont know

    Option (b) has very clearly been framed as the golden option with lots of benefits and very little pain for all of these benefits. There is no mention that if we tried to remain in the customs union then the EU’s current stated position is that we would have to continue to accept Free Movement and it is also highly probable situation that the EU would also insist that the UK would still have to defer to the European Courts.

  24. I have to be fairly vague, but I know some people whose children go to two schools in the area near the tower. I spoke to them a few days ago and they were aware of the identities of a fair number of victims of the fire from those schools whose details aren’t in the public realm. The same presumably goes for other children and parents at those schools too. Notably they told me not to believe what was in the press.There are undoubtedly still a number of unidentified victims, but it suggests that the accusation that the council and emergency services are either uninvolved or keeping people in the dark is simply untrue. Those with a genuine connection to people caught up in the fire are being kept informed.

  25. JOHN PILGRIM

    Thanks.

    Actually-just reading an “expert” who states that the classing on Grenfell was in breach of Regs for a building that high-which brings Criminal Prosecution well into view.

    But-as ever-the value of a Public Enquiry is that all these rumours & assertions can be converted to Fact & Conclusion.

    Someone somewhere though-be it Ministers, Councillors, or Contractors must surely be fatally branded with the responsibility for this.

  26. JOHN PILGRIM

    From BBC news :-

    “Now comes a statement from the Department for Communities and Local Government: “Cladding using a composite aluminium panel with a polyethylene core would be non-compliant with current Building Regulations guidance.

    “This material should not be used as cladding on buildings over 18m in height.

    “We cannot comment on what type of cladding was used on the building – this will be subject to investigations.”

    !!!!!

  27. JP @ 9.38 am

    I posted last night an extract of a Building Research Establishment Report of April 2016 which might explain the the apparent contradiction on whether or not the cladding panels at Grenfell satisfied safety requirements. But I was moderated, perhaps in view of the very hostile messages at that time from certain posters.
    :
    “”A further confusion arises since many elements required for fire safety in buildings are recommended to be “fire resisting”, i.e. to demonstrate that they satisfy performance criteria as determined by BS EN 13501-2 [13] or BS 476 fire resistance tests [ref 14]. Fire resistance tests subject a test specimen to a fire exposure that is similar to a fully flashed-over compartment fire. Such an exposure is appropriate for interior elements of a building and load bearing elements. However, it is not evident that such exposure conditions are appropriate for the exterior of a building””

    So tests ought to be done in real situations, and exteriors ought to have less combustible materials. And fire-resisting isn`t the same as non-combustible material.

    I can see a very costly legal battle ahead, as well as a blame battle between construction companies, local authority and government. The situation is complex and unclear.

    But this 2016 report does ask for further tests, and we know that BRE have lost their facility for doing tests on tall buildings.

  28. “RICH
    ^ and as the article says, this may go back decades, again showing why the usual suspects on here making political points trying to pin it on the Tories would be well advised to wait for the enquiry findings.”

    Rich: this is a serious question. Do posts from other quarters, which prejudge any enquiry at all and worse, do so in a really offensive manner, just not worry you – even slightly?

    TOH

    Thanks for your comments and it’s good to hear how much you appreciate serious music.

    I really don’t listen to enough – I think this is often the case with people who play themselves. I assume we “take it in” in more direct ways but I know that I should broaden my horizons more.

    Funny thing is that, despite my wife and I both loving music, whenever we listen to Classic FM or Radio 3 in the car we invariably can’t stand the music they are playing – taste [obviously] is a very personal thing.

    It’s mostly older music [renaissance and baroque] that almost always works for me. I absolutely love Rachel Podger’s violin playing and her ensemble work for example. I’d love to attend her Festival in Brecon.

  29. Dr Mibbles

    Agreed about YouGov. They did not have the courage of their convictions on 7th June when we were asked to believe Con had increased their lead over Lab by 3 points in the space of 24 hours. It was a shame because they got so much right in the individual seat calculations.

    Survation’s final poll late that evening put them out on a limb with a very small Con lead. They could easily have herded too but stuck to their guns and nailed it.

  30. @Paul,

    I would honestly make this point whatever party is currently in the spotlight.

  31. Must say – especially given my experience of regs. for fire retardant doors in my Victorian terrace property [just on the basis of an attic conversion for Rosie and Daisie] – my immediate thought was that it was inconceivable that cladding on a high rise tower block would not be legally required to be fire retardant.

    Beyond that thought, conjecture seems rather pointless at the moment; except to say commonsense dictates that regulations should be enforced in a uniform manner, regardless of the values or types of properties and their usage or potential occupants.

    Safety is safety.

  32. So, with no Queen’s speech next year, and presumably no debate or vote on the speech next year, does that remove one possible defeat from the Govt and increase the chances that a Conservative prime minister will be in place until at least summer 2019?

  33. @Colin

    If that is the case then there’s a very high probability of corporate manslaughter charges being filed against the building maintenance company and/or the contractors in relatively short order by the CPS.

    The Inquiry will, of course, focus on how this can be prevented in the future along with all the other deficiencies.

  34. rich

    “@Paul,
    I would honestly make this point whatever party is currently in the spotlight.”

    That wasn’t really my question Rich. I was just gently pointing out that your protests seem very selective and that you manage to bypass other comments – that I really can’t believe you approve of – without a murmur.

    Re “spotlights” and so on, I keep saying that, whatever we may say in private, conjecture about something we know either nothing, or very little, about, on an open forum set up for an entirely different purpose, is not appropriate – whoever engages in it.

    The facts will emerge over time, of that I am certain.

  35. RP
    So, with no Queen’s speech next year, and presumably no debate or vote on the speech next year, does that remove one possible defeat from the Govt and increase the chances that a Conservative prime minister will be in place until at least summer 2019?

    Yes, but this was probably done due to the 2 year Brexit term. Even as a leave voter, I do wonder whether the time this will take our country in terms of Gvt time and resource is really worth it. Makes you wonder how much else will be done.

    I remember reading Blair’s autobiography and he almost regretted the fox hunting bill as although he agreed with the principle, he didn’t envisage it would take up more parliamentary time than Health and education.

  36. @RP “So, with no Queen’s speech next year, and presumably no debate or vote on the speech next year, does that remove one possible defeat from the Govt and increase the chances that a Conservative prime minister will be in place until at least summer 2019?”

    Yes, it does remove the need for another Queen’s Speech before the end of the Brexit negotiations and thus improves the chances of the Government survival.

  37. @ MARTIN L – I agree the questioning on the survation poll (and all polls) regarding the “type” of Brexit don’t really represent the choices on offer. It’s a difficult question to ask in a brief format and hence people use the terms “hard” and “soft” when really there are three scenarios:
    1/ Walk-away (lots of businesses have a plan for that so its not really a full cliff-edge but easy to go with the narrative and call it a cliff-edge)
    2/ A negotiated departure and a new relationship. Within here several factors are at play (e.g. cost, access, free movement, ECJ, etc, etc). EU have been clear that single market access (itself a simplification term) requires free movement and hence the “cake and eat it” option is not available. The “cost” question has been asked in previous polls (YouGov sometimes ask it) and shows people do not want to pay much to exit, not sure I’ve seen one that asks how much they’d be prepared to pay/annum for custom union access. Most people’s view of “Soft” or “Hard” Brexit are both in this category and CON, LAB even SNP, PC all agree on the broad concept of getting the best deal (despite what their respective voters think in the cross breaks)
    3/ A negotiated remain/return (Survation “stop Brexit negotiations altogether and work to remain in the EU”). Sounds simple enough but with A50 triggered we’d have to negotiate that relationship so really need to add on sub questions about what conditions people would accept to remain/return (e.g. lose the rebate and hence pay 20bnish/year).

    In the short-term the only polls that matter will be the ones of 640 MPs (650 – 7SF – speaker – two deputy speakers). If they can’t generate a majority then broader polls will become relevant again :)

    P.S. Thank you for discussing polling info!!

  38. Paul Croft

    Thanks, the only instrument i can play is the recorder, not that I play now. I taught myself when I was in my twenties as I wanted to be able to read music and read a score.

    I understand your comments about Classic FM, too much film music and I find partial playing of works very irritating. If you going to play Beethoven’s 5th, play the whole of it!

    I have a very large collection of CD’s, 700-800 at least and my taste is wide and varies with mood and it changed with age. In my late teens early twenties I was into cool jazz with the MJQ as favourites. The transition into Bach and the other barogue composers was a natural follow on. In my thirties I was seriously into the romantics and love of the human voice came much later in my 40s and 50s.

    When I am really low (not often thank goodness), my wife (who after 55 years of marriage knows me well) always insists I listen to Gorecki’s 3rd symphony. It has never failed to lift me out of a “black dog”.

    It’s very hot, just back from thinning out beetroot and turnips. Time for a cold drink and some more music. Have a nice day all, especially those who are like me, fathers!

    ;-)

  39. Technocratic Government – does any constitutional guru know if this would be possible in UK and how it might come about?

    Apparently it got some support during the CON-LDEM coalition years (well it got a petition!).

    I can certainly see the merit of installing the kind of technocratic govts that temporarily occur in places like Italy but don’t see that happening in UK – just curious if it would even have the remotest possible chance legally.

  40. @MatinL

    “Option (b) has very clearly been framed as the golden option with lots of benefits and very little pain for all of these benefits. There is no mention that if we tried to remain in the customs union then the EU’s current stated position is that we would have to continue to accept Free Movement….”

    I’m not sure that is the case. IIRC Norway is in the Single Market as it is in the EEA and therefore accepts Free Movement but it is not in the Customs Union. Turkey is in the Customs Union for non-agricultural goods by virtue of a bi-lateral agreement with the EU but is not in the Single Market so there is no freedom of movement.

  41. TREVOR WARNE

    Many thanks for the Survation XL link.

    MARTIN L

    I take your point re the golden option, but if that translates to the EEA option that would give much more wriggle room than there is now. It also solves the soft Irish border issue, which is one of the 3 top issues the EU quite rightly want to resolve first.

    BTW, there’s a good summary of the results posted on the Survation twitter feed. See here.

  42. Didn’t anybody watch Peston on Sunday? What an amateur programme that is. Constantly cutting off guests mid flow for abrupt adverts. Badly edited all the way through. The Marr programme was much better.

  43. @TREVOR WARNE

    The Queen appoints/sacks ministers (on the advice of the PM who she also appoints). So, in theory, it is possible but the problem is they would not be able to fulfil their functions without the acquiescence of Parliament, who could bring them down on a motion of confidence and refuse to back any of their legislative programs.

    So in practice, it would not work.

  44. Agree that the Survation poll questions are not ideal. I still find Q2 interesting, especially with the twitter link (thanks Barbazenzero). Slight majority for having a second referedum, but perhaps more interestingly, the change since the last time the question was asked is large – ‘swing’ of 7% to having a referendum. The details show what you’d expect, no referendum is favoured by older voters, and Conservative+UKIP voters.

    But again, I’m not sure what having a second referendum really means, and whether it’s a sensible question to ask. Is it practical that after signing A50 and negotiating for two years (possibly more with extension), we could actually just say, “No, actually, we want to stay in”? Even that would have to be re-negotiated presumably.

  45. @ SEA CHANGE – thank you. A friend of mine trying to suggest that instead of calling a 2nd GE either Bercow (as speaker!?) or Damian Green (as defacto 2nd place for PM) could be appointed by the Queen to form a technocratic govt (more along the lines of a national govt within UK constitution – he’s an American who lived in Italy for many years!). We’re talking about 100 to 1,000-1 shots. I’ve been through it several times and it would appear the path ahead is:
    1/ CON form a govt (probably with DUP providing C+S), if that fails to pass QS then
    2/ LAB get the chance to form a govt (where the maths doesn’t work) so we move quickly on to
    3a/ a zombie CON govt (that isn’t technically a new govt) until next budget
    3b/ a quick 2nd GE

    He’s suggesting a 3c/ where the Queen steps in to knock heads together. It does seem v.v.v.v.unlikely. Maybe if a 2nd GE fails to form a govt then we might start to have to consider something but with German elections not until Sep their would probably be a small window for a 2nd GE (if CON can’t get past the QS stage next week)

    Appreciate your input.

  46. Trevor

    If a second General Election results in another hung Parliament then it becomes very interesting. A third General Election would be inconceivable and it may well be that a Grand coalition starts being a possibility. It would certainly require a huge amount of compromise but I think it would receive approval from the electorate.

  47. Re the Survation link I just posted, here is their summary of the results now vs late April excluding DKs:

    2nd Referendum, Now, April, Change
    Support, 53%, 46%, +7
    Oppose, 47%, 54%, -7

    Leaving with no deal, Now, April, Change
    Bad, 65%, 67%, -2
    Good, 35%, 33%, +2

    It also reports:

    [W]e asked if whether such a “no deal” stance if considered by May to be a better option for Britain than the exit deal offered by the EU if the public would trust the Prime Minister’s Judgement…. 49% saying they would backed May’s judgement on the matter, whereas a lower but significant 45% said they would not.

    Something for everyone there, it would seem.

  48. One thing that is troubling me greatly…
    Having at one stage of my career been in charge of office management, we were forced (by regulations/insurance/the fire service/local authorities/HSE? – I can’t remember) to have periodic fire drills, about twice a year from memory, where everyone trooped out into the car park and fire marshals ran around with walkie-talkies trying to look important.
    After 10 minutes chat and smoke we all trooped back in.
    For the avoidance of doubt, with the exception of the head of internal audit who took a serious nap after lunch, nobody was asleep, nobody was particularly frail or elderly or ill, nor were there any babes in arms in our offices.
    Fire alarms were tested, annoyingly, every Thursday at 11am.
    Reports were circulated on the efficacy of evacuations and lessons learned. A few people were ticked off for using the lift or some other calumny. This was true in out tallest 10 floor building, but equally true in offices with 2 floors.

    I live now on the third floor of a modern block of reasonably posh private flats. In the 7 or 8 years I have lived here we have never had any kind of fire drill nor any alarm test, to my knowledge. Yet there are old, frail and ill people, and babes in arms, and people regularly sleep here when the aircraft aren’t too noisy.

    In my parish there are 25 storey (mainly – a few have been privatised) council blocks and I believe they follow the same (non-)regime.

    How does this make any kind of sense? It would be most inconvenient to clear a tower block in the middle of the night, but if clearing an office is viewed as essential, why not a tower block?

  49. RICH

    Personally, I think Peston is a much better interviewer than most. Is there any polling on the topic?

  50. I sense that the General Election was a “wake up and smell the coffee” moment for the UK regarding our Brexit options.

    The reality that we have very little place beyond either begging to stay and 2nd referendum (unlikely and hugely divisive), going straight to EFTA, or the complete gamble of a no deal crash out.

    I think EFTA is where we’re heading fast. There’s clear public support for that option.

    It’s just someone needs to tell David Davis, Jacon Rees Mogg, John Redwood and Liam Fox!!

1 13 14 15 16 17