New swingometers

A brief note – I’ve updated the two graphical swingometers on the site so they are based on the 2017 election results. The basic version is here, and the fancy version that lets you put in separate Welsh and Scottish figures is here (the old version without the map isn’t yet updated).


828 Responses to “New swingometers”

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  1. Laszlo

    “it’s a highly unusual feeling – nodding in agreement most of the time when reading Colin’s comments for days now.”

    Always knew you were a closet Tory ????

  2. TruGuy – ” I think Cameron would have been well advised to stay on for a bit longer at least. He might have even found new popularity in the Euro-sceptic side of his party.”

    The first poll after the referendum was on 25th June 2016 from Survation, and it had Cons 32%, Lab 32% LD 9% UKIP 16%. I think the SNP was at a healthy level too. So Cameron was not in a good place.

    Theresa May steadied the ship once she took over.

    She ended up with 43% on a turnout of 68%, which is higher than polls were showing at the start of the year. And she put a kibosh on IndyRef2, which was vital because the EU was using Sturgeon and Scotland in divide and rule tactics, in order to undermine our negotiating position.

    The EU tried the same thing with Northern Ireland and Gibraltar too. And Sinn Fein got excited and declared that this election would decide whether a border poll would be held – that has been kiboshed by the strong performance of the DUP.

    So we’ll now go into these negotiations as a genuine United Kingdom, with the EU unable to play divide and rule games to split the kingdom, there arn’t any fifth columns anymore and that is an improvment compared to where we were before the election.

    The unknown in the election was the way the LibDems and Greens collapsed and votes flowed to Labour. Was this something to do with Remain and Gina Miller’s fundraising? We don’t know. But now that Remain got less seats than the Brexiting parties (Cons + DUP), we don’t know if those people will stick with Labour or go back to their previous allegiences. For example are the LibDem voters happy about the SWP turn that Labour is now taking (see the demonstrations)?

    And once Brexit is done and dusted, the political kaleidescope will shift once again, in ways hard to predict.

    It’s all exciting stuff.

  3. @Chris Riley

    Sadly it has always been the case that local councils are used as a scapegoat by central government, and local council workers are often used as a scapegoat by local councillors.

    It rolls downhill, particularly when everyone is trying to deflect any blame from themselves.

    The only true accountability is often at the ballot box and the electorate can be vindictive if they feel an injustice has been done (Neil Hamilton for example)

    They were just saying on the news that the government want people from the council on the streets in high vis jackets to help the affected residents. Tough job as they probably won’t have 30-40 police officers to protect them if things kick off again like TM did. I have a lot of sympathy for the ordinary council employees who are struggling with the logistics and emotional brunt of something unprecedented.

  4. There has been a new twist in the cladding debacle:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40283980

    quote

    The government says if this cladding was used, it would not comply with current building regulations.

    The Department for Communities and Local Government said such material should not be used as cladding on buildings over 18m high.

    Rydon, which completed the renovations, said the work met all fire regulations.

    The company also insisted that building control and safety standards had been fully met.

    And Harley Facades, the company that fitted the panels to the building, said in a statement: “At this time, we are not aware of any link between the fire and the exterior cladding to the tower.”

    The west London tower block was refurbished at a cost of almost £9m.

    end quote

    If the cladding wasn’t compliant with existing regulations, and Rydon thought that they’d signed off everything properly, then it points to a sub-contractor making a switch in the materials and nobody picking up that they’d made a switch.

  5. Laszlo

    That was supposed to be a smiley face to indicate a joke but came out as a bunch of ?

  6. Disappointing to see that speculation about the new Tory leader/PM [always assuming that Mrs May is ousted/resigns immediately/next few weeks/before conference/after finalising Brexit/etc etc] has fizzled out with – still nearly three hundred MPs to get through.

    STOP SLACKING.

  7. @ CANDY – IMHO your view on NI not being a potential oppo for EU to “divide and rule” is optimistic – I hope you are correct and I am wrong!

    NI is one of Barnier’s 3 points to meet for “sufficient progress” but DUP want open border which probably requires a trade deal in parallel to meeting Barnier’s 3 points (ie we need the chicken and the egg at the same time).

    Also NI doesn’t even have its own parliament in place at the moment. Whether the 5 parties can agree a power sharing arrangement when DUP are cutting a deal and working with CON in Westminster is unknown but it is certainly a risk which that could spill out into a bigger issue which prevents a Brexit deal being agreed.

    I agree with you on Scotland.

    P.S. Are we getting any of the usual polls tonight? Given the unsettled nature of the election result I thought many of the polling companies would keep going?

  8. Momentum / socialist worker crowd descended on Downing Street tonight. I think this is going to backfire in terms of public support.

  9. @Rich

    Not getting much coverage so I’m not sure it’ll have much impact.

  10. @Rich

    Not getting much coverage so I’m not sure it’ll have much impact.

  11. @Rich: I agree. If the opposition continues to try to profit politically from the tower fire tragedy and the protests turn into uncontrolled mob anger, there may be a shift in public opinion.

  12. I wonder why we don’t get centre right protest marches. lol

  13. @RICH

    “Momentum / socialist worker crowd descended on Downing Street tonight. I think this is going to backfire in terms of public support.”

    ———–

    Was in town today and hearing some applause went to check, and saw a crowd spilling out onto the street. Bearing in mind what you’ve been saying, I thought I’d take a gander. Especially because they had placards!

    “June is the end of May”

    and… “Don’t be DUPed”

    …were some of the more memorable slogans. It was a bit hard to hear what they were saying over the tannoy, a bit echoey but didn’t hear anything hard left about the overthrow of Capitalism or anything. Later at the cash point a young lady in a hippy maxi skirt with blonde and turquoise hair, you know the type, was raving about the march and how good it had been, but she didn’t say anything bad about Theresa. Still, it’s early days…

  14. The Tories own austerity and de-regulation. That image of a burnt-out tower isn’t going anywhere.

    It’s going to be ‘challenging’ for them to walk away from that unscathed, irrespective of their leader.

    There is some seriously wishful thinking occuring here… “maybe if this happens, then that happens, then this happens, then that happens…the pendulum will swing back to May”. Grasping at straws comes to mind.

    Dismissing people who are angry because they have lost friends or family due to corners being cut, is both entirely lacking in empathy and symptomatic of the very problem the Tories have – an image of being heartless and cold. That’s all very well if you’re also seen as competent, but when your entire political ideology is founded on contracting everything out to the lowest private sector bidder, don’t be surprised if people turn against it.

    Watch the polls. TM’s personal ratings will fall, as will CON VI. The idea that people will look at some people demonstrating outside downing street and then conclude that, actually, the Tories aren’t so bad after all is quite laughable.

  15. @Paul Croft
    Of course Ruth Davidson isn’t actually an MP, but that doesn’t seem to bother people much. It’s like a sixth form debating society.

    Does May’s replacement actually have to be a member of the Conservative Party?
    Discuss

  16. Drmibbles,

    You never give up on the relentless anti Con rhetoric do you! lol.

    Nobody knows how this will play out. I think May might end up with sympathy if the personal attacks go on much longer, but who know.

  17. @Rich

    “I wonder why we don’t get centre right protest marches”

    Well we had some under the last Labour government. I’m thinking of foxhunting and petrol prices / taxpayers alliance.

    Plus the Conservatives don’t have a mass membership and don’t tend to ask them for anything (other than money and votes).

  18. Those who think that every demonstration is organized by “Momentum” and the “hard left” inside the Labour party do not know their history very well.

    The Russian revolution started in February 1917 when a group of housewives in Moscow came out on the streets banging pots because there was no bread. The local garrison then took it upon themselves to cut these women down with sabres, and that was the tipping/flash point.

    Lenin was in Zurich Switzerland at the time, and Leon Trotsky in transit from the US was inturned in a Nova Scotia German aliens camp by the British military authorities In April.

    My point being that I seem to remember riots over “austerity” in London and elsewhere while Cameron was PM that had nothing to do with the Labour Party at all.

    If anything the fact that Labour came so close in the GE, might have calmed things down and given rise to some hope, until the Grenfell Towers fire.

  19. “RICH
    I wonder why we don’t get centre right protest marches. lol”

    Just a stab in the dark Rich – maybe they have not got a lot to protest about?

    “VALERIE

    Does May’s replacement actually have to be a member of the Conservative Party? Discuss.”

    Well, sorry to be pedantic Valerie but traditionally I believe it’s usually vacancy first and then the replacement.

    Probably doesn’t matter. Tim Farron’s replacement is what is exciting me – he really HAS gone.

  20. CambridgeRachel

    I got it :-)

    No, just I have seen it too many times in my life how social democrats try to ride radicalisation, and how they fail. So, it is a major threat on two levels.

    It can easily turn the tide against Labour. 1968 France is really a potential outcome (not having tanks on the streets, but people voting for the right, and the radicalised activists turn off even the leftists).

    Secondly, there are a huge number of memes, videos on mainstream social media that originate from groups whose members were thrown out even from Momentum. Playing for them and harnessing them – I don’t think they can do it, but the poison will stay.

    Disclaimer: I also see Corbyn and co as radical philistines which obviously seriously influences my judgements (at least the centrists and the right in the LP don’t disguise their opportunism). I want a Labour government, I just don’t trust them :-)

  21. @Paul Croft

    “Just a stab in the dark Rich – maybe they have not got a lot to protest about?”

    Actually that’s a very valid point given a left-wing government hasn’t been elected since 1974. (I think at most we can say Blair / Brown was centrist or possible centre-right and they had plenty of left-wing protests against their governments)

  22. Canada

    I agree with you on the spontaneity of the demonstrations (the various fringe groups are add ons, albeit they may influence the narrative).

    Just to contextualise something though. At the time of the February revolution the soviets provided the organisational structure to channel the anger. The opposition parties operated in them. The soviets were surprisingly democratic organisations back then. I don’t really see any similar organisation here (the few voluntary ones are a kind of similar, but they haven’t got the scope).

  23. The farmers hauliers and others blockaded refineries causing chaos to the country .The conservatives got a lead in the opinion polls.Many of the people supporting them would have been incensed if the same disruption had been caused by official union action.

  24. The correlation between leadership rating and VI is fairly strong, however, May was possibly still enjoying a honeymoon back at the time of the local elections and for some reason her rating lagged the initial move in the polls (rather than leading it). Typically the incumbent is around -10pts due to being the one taking the blame for everything. Adjusting for the incumbency issue and using the correlation approach LAB would now be around level with CON (+/-3). Matt Singh got 2017 wrong but he has done a lot of historical analysis on how “soft” measures correlate to actual voting. I’m waiting to read his “How I got it wrong in 2017” write-up – either “shy Tory” became “complacent CON” or he tries to blame it on the snap election and delay in leadership rankings showing in VI!?!? It will be an interesting read!

    Personally I would like to see some bad CON polls this weekend to make sure May/CON HQ get the message not to play silly buggers and try to keep “stupid stuff” in the manifesto “do-over” next week. LAB are on a “war footing” and CON should adopt the same approach. The next GE might be in the Autumn, 2019 or by some miracle not until 2022 but CON seriously need to up their game and getting a “do-over” on the manifesto is a v.small silver lining in the GE disaster IMHO – hoping they use the opportunity!!
    (oops bit partisan there and using n=1 also inappropriate for this forum)

    P.S. Also looking forward to reading an article on “manifestos do matter” from our forum host :)

  25. Rugby in Argentina is very good.

    Anyway, have decided to risk a world shortage of full-stops by adding a few of the little rascals at the end of every post.

    It’s a technique I’ve observed elsewhere and I am fairly sure that the objective is to create the illusion that there is more to one’s writing than meets the eye – rather than less…………

  26. @ Valerie – do you know I was thinking the very same today. And I have one specific person in mind. Nick Clegg.

    Combine it with a spectacular offer to the young (subsidised fees for students plus no Employers NI for under 25s) and a sustainable end to austerity, explained very clearly with figures and it could be a master stroke.

    But I think the chance of them thinking outside the box is nil.

  27. Telegraph reporting that Tory MPs have said they will put up a challenger to May if she backs away from a hard Brexit. Times leading with a story that May has been given 10 days to save her premiership by colleagues a her grassroots support in the party tumbles . Not looking good for her from within the party.

  28. Thank God for the Queen! At least someone in authority “gets it” and can strike the right tone.

  29. @ DrMibbles, Syzygy, and Valerie

    Thank you.

  30. Hi all

    Leadsom had announced they are scrapping the Queen’s Speech next year to allow for a two year parliament.

    Thoughts on the practical and political implications of this, of any, would be appreciated from the more knowledgeable denizens of UKPR.

    Thanks

  31. Is this partly a move to avoid DUP making additional demands at a crucial point in one year’s time?

    Sorry to triple-post!

  32. @kester leek

    It is unusual but not unknown to have a two year parliamentary session ( iirc the Coalition did so in 2010/11).

    It avoids the need to shoehorn legislation into a one year session (plus a short spill over before the next one). So it could be a realistic assessment of how long is needed for Brexit related legislation.

    It could also reflect a defensive political strategy in which the Government will not be promoting much legislation beyond the essential and so avoids the need to garner support.

  33. I apologize that this is non polling but considering the number of posts discussing regulations/construction this might be of interest to some contributors.

    The Telegraph (17.06.2017) have published an article explaining the recent history of government fire regulations of tower blocks, while it appears that the Blair government may have dragged it’s heels some changes were made but it is the government ministers response in 2014 to the 2013 recommendations for changes to the fire safety regulations that stands out in view of subsequent events.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/17/warnings-deathtrap-high-rise-building-cladding-ignored-decades/

  34. I thought there had to be a queens speech every year unless it’s wartime

  35. It doesn’t matter how many times people say we need to wait for the enquiry, people are desperate to stick it to one party. It’s modern politics I guess.

  36. Article on fallout from cancellation of Queen’s speech 2011: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2010/sep/13/government-cancels-2011-queens-speech

    Believe it was also cancelled in 1969.

  37. So… any sign of any polls?

  38. @ DRMIBBLES

    On the issue of byielding control and whether cuts have impacted its ability to do its job properly, a few points:

    Building control is a self-funding service. Anybody seeking approval pays a fee, which covers the cost of inspection. Cuts to council funding should have no bearing on it, unless they’re robbing Peter to pay Paul by redirecting building control fees to other departments.

    Building control is part privatised. That is to say that you can either go through a council, or you can use a private third party inspector. As a property professional i have done both. In my experience council building control departments are frequently impossible to get hold of, treat you like an inconvenience rather than a job, care very little about anything more than ticking boxes, and engage in little if any design discussion or follow-up. Private building control firms reply to correspondence, get involved in the design process, and go to lengths to ensure that their job is done properly. They tend to charge less for their services as well. This is not to say that there aren’t good council building inspectors and departments out there, but a lot of the ones I’ve dealt with have been awful. If I can I choose a private inspector every time and for every reason, including the safety and reliability of the finished job.

  39. Kester Leek

    There is a Pathe News video on youtube of the 1969 queen’s speech. but she didn’t have a Christmas message in that year.

  40. Tbh I don’t much care whether Theresa May is distressed or not. However, it appears to matter to the survivors and it’s not for me to decide what’s important to them. My concern is the apparent lack of any co-ordinated response from local or national gov’t… and particularly the lack of help in finding relatives who might be hospital.
    I would have expected the army or an organisation experienced in dealing with large scale disasters, like the Red Cross, to be bought in within hours of the tragedy. The ad hoc response of people and the community is really life affirming and wonderful but cannot be a long term substitute for what will be required… and it’s already 4 days.
    I’ve become more informed than I ever expected to be with fire regulation and external cladding but until the survivors are properly cared for, why this happened is less important than what happens next. In the circumstances,IMO going to the council offices was completely understandable… what were the victims supposed to do to get help?
    When it comes to other of Candy’s remarks, I am exercising great restraint in not responding. (I’m now off to beat up a cushion.)

  41. The Mail on Sunday have a Survation poll about Brexit – is this a new poll?

    Saying two thirds want a soft Brexit

  42. SYZYGY

    “I’m now off to beat up a cushion.”

    mmm…… cushions have their rights and feelings you know.

    I must say that, like you, I was expecting the proverbial well-oiled machine.

  43. This, from the Times [others report the same] is interesting:

    “The prime minister has 10 days to save her premiership by showing “she is fit to lead”, the Sunday Times reports. The paper says confidence in Mrs May has been in “free fall” in Tory ranks and constituency bosses have told ministers and MPs to force her from power.”

    Others are full of “Prince of Compassion” and “Queen Calms Shaken Nation” which, I suppose, are typical tabloid hyperbole.

  44. @ Paul

    ‘mmm…… cushions have their rights and feelings you know.’

    Oh gawd… so what do I do now? I’m definitely not going to kick the dog….

  45. It looks like a new poll

    “New – Survation for MOS. Fieldwork 16-17 June Telephone. What do the public want from Brexit? Customs Union access? We used CETA as a model”

  46. @MartinW

    I wonder how many people actually know what the Customs Union is?

    Many people seem to reject the ECHR as they think it’s part of the EU.

  47. There’s been lots of talk about the Customs Union recently. I reckon a lot of people will have heard of it – and understand the benefits as they are easy to explain – but maybe not the downsides.

    Agree on the ECHR!

  48. @Sea Change

    “All corporate taxes are paid by the customers (individuals) in the end due to the cost of the services or goods that the company sells – it must make a return on investment after taxes.”

    ———–

    Well they might avoid a chunk of the tax if they invest rather than taking more profits, and that investment can even benefit consumers.

    And some of the time they may absorb the tax rather than raising prices, esp. if they’ve enough of a profit margin. Or maybe it’ll encourage them to be more efficient rather than raising prices…

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