New swingometers

A brief note – I’ve updated the two graphical swingometers on the site so they are based on the 2017 election results. The basic version is here, and the fancy version that lets you put in separate Welsh and Scottish figures is here (the old version without the map isn’t yet updated).


828 Responses to “New swingometers”

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  1. Rich

    “Adopting some more social policies in their manifesto would open up the middle ground again for the Tories for people who want a bit more spending on public services, but don’t necessarily want hard left more extreme socialist/Marxist policies.”

    Why do you think the Labour Party is going to suddenly lurch to the left and introduce “hard left” “extreme socialis/Marxist” policies next time? I would guess the Labour Party’s manifesto will be much the same as this election.

  2. VOICE_OF_REASON @ RICH
    This is the party that elected IDS instead of Ken Clarke.

    Plus ça change and all that.

    On p5 of the YouGov poll, they ask the question:
    And do you think Theresa May should or should not offer cabinet jobs to the following MPs who are not currently in the cabinet?

    From Con voters, they show Clarke getting 20% support with IDS on 50%. Unsurprisingly, Gove gets 23% so May’s reversing his unperson status seems a bit premature.

  3. CANDY
    “she’ll lead the UK through all the Brexit stuff and only stand down after that.”
    I assume that that was the deal. It could get upset if things get too rough.
    Peeps persist in declaring that the Corbyn/McDonnell was a christmas tree and the electoral response one which reflected an appetite for goodies to be got by sections of the electorate. LCPs voted for Corbyn, however, on just such a programme and policy, within which some elements spanned the record of previous Lab governments, and were well tested, including free university tuitiion, pensions policy, municipal care homes, school meals, and – less clearly -, nationalisation of major infrastructure and utilities, Within the party structure as a whole, the agenda promised by a Corbyn government appealed therefore as true to their values and uncompromising, and probably equally so to wide sections of an increasingly aware and politically education range of occupational and age groups in the electorate.
    It does seem to me though that too little is made of the expectation in the electorate as a whole that opposition to him and the agenda was slanted, and that the system might yield to his ability to defy it, for reasons which Crossbat put forward as meriting a badge of courage, but which might also have meant in the minds of many that these were in reality the marks of a needed leadership.

  4. SSSIMON

    very much doubt that a shift in policy such as you suggest would drive voters into the arms of UKIP but voters are only one part of being successful in the political process. I’m guessing that most of the conservative membership would be fine with such a policy shift but would the money men(they are almost always men). A large part of why the conservative party has been successful has been their ability to raise money, but those that donate large sums of money want a return on investment.

  5. SSSIMON
    “Shifting on a few salient issues like utilities/railways and reversing privatisation in the NHS/increasing funding could easily tip the narrative back in their favour without significantly losing support from the right.”

    Aha, yes! What a cunning ploy – then, as with Osborne’s introduction of a living wage, the right would step by step become the left, Conservatism would have discretely disappeared, and the Party would have survived.

  6. I was just musing on Conservative leaders recent resignations/non-resignations.

    Cameron resigned because the referendum result was not what he personally had wanted. But ironically, it was a result which probably pleased many people (MPs and otherwise) in his party.

    May hasn’t resigned despite the GE result not being what she had wanted. And it’s obvious that it’s not what anyone else in the party wanted either.

    It’s a funny old world. I think Cameron would have been well advised to stay on for a bit longer at least. He might have even found new popularity in the Euro-sceptic side of his party.

  7. People who think that a bit of tinkering by the Tories – no foxes going to grammar schools [or whatever it was] plus maybe a summer sunscreen allowance to go with the winter fuel one, just don’t – in the current jargon – “get it”.

    It’s a lot more serious than that.

  8. PAUL
    Also you – the Danny Boyle of the UK Polling Report Commentariat – must have applauded the proposal to have every child learn to play a musical instrument as outweighing all of that.

  9. @ John Pilgrim

    It would be a mistake to conclude that Conservatism is diametrically opposed to things like a living wage or (some) state-managed utilities/enterprises. That would be liberals (in the traditional sense), who almost always favour a laissez-faire economic approach, unbridled globalisation etc. Indeed, some of the most savvy and intelligent Conservatives politicans in history (such as Bismarck) took full advantage of this to win support from a very broad section of society.

  10. Lots of talk on here re Mays successor as somebody who was involved in Conservative party matters as a delegate my view is that the next leader could either be Boris or more likely somebody who is as yet unknown.
    Boris is still very popular with the majority of the Conservative membership but it’s a current view that’s gaining ground as I understand that somebody who is a fresh face and who has youth on there side would be a better bet the Tories have I believe about 120 MP’s under 50’s to choose from. Having spoken to my old local Conservative club president yesterday during the conversation which was about farming she mentioned that support for May was still strong and they hoped she would stay in place.

    The reasoning behind that was they considered she had been poorly advised during the GE and unfairly treated in the press whilst having to deal with two huge distractions during the campaign.
    The other thinking is as approach what could be a summer of disruption marches and strikes Its more than possible the public will grow tired of disruption especially if it leads to wide spread public disorder as we’ve seen in the past if that happens the pendulum may well swing back in Mays favour as people remember what it was about Corbyn and McDonald that made them uneasy in the first place

    From my view it’s somewhat ironic that the Tories could be relying on McDonald with his mass protests to do there dirty work for them but that’s politics I guess.

  11. SSSIMON
    “some of the most savvy and intelligent Conservatives politicans in history (such as Bismarck) took full advantage of this to win support from a very broad section of society.”

    Ah, Bismark. The dropped pilot, If only we could bring him back.

  12. Good afternoon all from another fine summer’s day in the PSRL.

    Just a note of caution concerning thinking of a change in epoch / political consensus. Both in 1945 and circa 1979 the new order had a distinct policy platform and ideology concerning how to run society. In 1945 this was provided by Keynes and Beveridge, in ’79 it was the Chicago and a number of right wing think tanks.

    A number of centre left posters have over the past couple years bemoaned the lack of development of policy and comprehensive programme that can genuinely challenge the current orthodoxy and provide a viable alternative. Whilst the values and sentiment of society may be shifting if the left can not provide a coherent structure for managing modern society this shift may prove transitory, or at worst more sinister elements of body political may take advantage of the current level of discontent.

  13. @ John Pilgrim

    I heard attempts to resurrect him from DNA fragments were underway as we speak! ;-)

  14. TURK
    “the pendulum may well swing back in Mays favour as people remember what it was about Corbyn and McDonald that made them uneasy in the first place”
    According to SSSimon it is what they remember about Corbyn and McDonnell that made them uneasy, that is a living wage and a sensible degree of nationalisation of utilities (Damn, why didn’t we think of that?), that the Conservative Government should now be adopting.

  15. TURK

    An interesting post.

    I agree with the views of your Party friend.

    Have been having the same thoughts. TM will never be Mrs Emotional-however much they want her to be. But she is I think Mrs Get on With Things. I think that was demonstrated today in the statement after the visit of the Residents of Grenfell Tower. And at the end of the day, it will be practical help & remedial action that matters.

    It certainly looks-if reports are to be believed-as though McDonell is planning action on The Street. No surprise of course-this , not Parliament, is where he believes The People can take power. The mixture of Banners outside Downing Street today clearly shows that in action. And I agree that it will be interesting to see how public opinion reacts-not to mention reaction from Yvette Cooper et al , so soon after pledging support. to the Leader they disliked so much.

  16. TURK

    Dream on.

    You are spending too much time reading right-wing blogs.

    It is true though that it is only Labour that can save the Conservatives, but dreaming up fictitious links to the SWP just sounds desperate.

  17. @Turk,

    On the money. McDonnell should be left to his own devices…

  18. REDRICH
    ” if the left can not provide a coherent structure for managing modern society this shift may prove transitory,”
    According to J.K.Galbraith Jnr and others who have carried on the debate, a Keynesian economic strategy is essentially what has been needed, but has been distorted by the growth of institutions governing fiscal policies which have intruded into good government, both in the West and in post-Soviet and developing economies, unfortunately contaminating IMF and EU policies and handing too great a power to the financial institutions and money men.

  19. COLIN
    “-if reports are to be believed”

    Are they, though?

  20. @ Turk

    Not Boris – I just can’t see that happening. He has too little credibility with the wider media and public now (and even less in the EU, while we’re attempting to negotiate Brexit).

    Someone as yet unknown – possibly. But I’m not sure an unknown would be trusted at this critical juncture. That would have been more plausible had a large majority been achieved last week.

  21. John Pilgrim

    We will find out won’t we?

  22. JOHN PILGRIM

    What do you think John?-a reliable source………..or not ??

    https://www.thecanary.co/2017/06/15/john-mcdonnell-sets-need-next-perfect/

  23. I actually think TM’s reputation could begin to improve if the negative press continues. Some of what’s been said about her recently is appalling, and I suspect the public may begin to tire of it before long, seeing her as a victim of a concerted smear campaign.

  24. The eurudite conversation about Ms May’s Primeministership or not on UKPR reminds me of an international meeting of Philosophers taking place in Prague in 1968.

    A group of philosophers were sitting at the head of the conference hall discussing whether or not a pen being held in the hand of one of their colleagues, existed or not, when a group of university students broke into the hall to announce that there were Russian tanks in the outskirts of Prague, and they the students had only one question for the assembled international group: What were they going to do about the Russian invasion.

    The philosophers declined to answer, and on January 19th, 1969 a philosophy student Jan Pallach set fire to himself in protest of the Czech peoples acceptance of the Russian invasion of their country:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A26Z4MB1yJ8

    CBC news, The National, reported last night that the death toll in Grenfell Towers had reached 30 and that another 70 persons were still missing or unaccounted for, and then switched to growing angry demonstrations, and an invasion of the local Council Chambers.

    Meanwhile here in North America the third most senior Republican in the Congress was shot and killed while attending a baseball game on Wednesday.

    Business as usual, in my humble opinion, is not an option that young people are going to accept from politicians of either the left or right, they want some answers and they want them now.

  25. Did T May just throw the local Tory council under the proverbial bus?

  26. @SSSIMON

    Actually when I saw the headlines attacking her in the Daily Mail and Express yesterday I had similar thoughts. Certainly it didn’t do Corbyn any harm to be hounded by them.

  27. CANADA

    @” 30 and that another 70 persons ”

    An incorrect report.

    Commander Cundy made it clear-30 people are known to have died, but that an additional 28 people known to have been in the building are also thought to be among the victims.

  28. JOHN PILGRIM

    As John Cleese’s thick footballer used to say in Monty Python – “very much so Brian”.

    Of course we were headed in that direction before the School Music Services, painstakingly built up over decades and offering free tuition to children and life long careers for instrumental teachers, were “privatised” under Tory government.

    Bring in charging to parents and, in a stroke, instrumental music became a largely middle class activity once more.

  29. Mind you, free lessons was Marxism gone mad, to be fair.

  30. CANADA

    @”young people … want some answers and they want them now.”

    Quite a lot of Old People do too-and no doubt some Middle Aged People as well.

    Most of them understand that sensitively identifying the remains of deceased persons in the ash & cinders of a totally incinerated 24 story tower block will take time-and a lot of courage & professionalism from Police & Firemen.

    The Met Police will find out if a crime has been committed.
    A Judge will find out how & why this happened, and who was responsible.

    And that will take time too.

    ………….if they want facts that is.

  31. Why do people think Corbyn is hard left…his manifesto was soft left “social democrat” territory…………nothing like what Marx hoped for

    And I didnt even vote Labour this election :D

  32. ” free lessons was Marxism gone mad, to be fair.”

    Yet free lessons are found in many more capitalist countries in Europe……..
    Ah the scare mongering about Marx….a pretty harmless man who just had ideas of getting better wealth for the worker and their labour……….

    Dont blame nuts like Stalin on him…its unjust mate ;)

  33. UKIP resurgence. I agree with SSSIMON that this is a risk that should not be under estimated for CON. However, ex-UKIP ended up breaking only 2-3 CON to 1 LAB (depending on who you use) so it’s difficult to know the mind of the typical ex-UKIP voter.
    Some polls that show current VI with 2017 actual vote and 2015 actual vote cross break info would be very useful going forward. Their very low show in 2017 means their 12.8% 2015 vote is now hidden 8%, 3% ish in CON and LAB (with 2%ish still UKIP). Only by splitting them back out to 2015 vote can we see ’em!
    Political compasses and UKIP manifesto suggest UKIP are probably slightly left of CON on everything except immigration. If immigration is tightened up using existing laws (ie does not ruffle EU feathers) and net numbers drop for economic reasons (stronger economies in EU, elsewhere and a weaker pound/UK prospects) AND UKIP stay in internal chaos they might dwindle further and after we come out of European Parliament in 2019 they might even disappear altogether?!

    P.S. Seems some peeps getting nervous about CON becoming LAB-lite! Well have to wait and see. I doubt CON will go LAB-lite anyway – it was just a “dream” manifesto. Means tested higher education would make sense if it is a genuine attempt to help students from poorer backgrounds. Students with wealthier parents typically have their fees (and maintenance) paid by said parents. Completely free uni fees for any/all courses is a huge tax credit to more wealthy parents (ask wealthy Scottish families!!) – but if LAB come to power in time for start of 2020 academic year and stay for 7 years I’d find a way to live with free fees :)

  34. Will May’s ratings improve? Not for a long time if at all. It has taken nearly two years for Corbyn to improve his ratings and that has been based upon his receiving more even handed coverage in the media.
    His ratings prior to the election were built upon a media driven narrative that he was no good. Indeed posts on here were reflective of this.

    I said on here a few months ago in a post which went into moderation that I was baffled by May’s high ratings as she had done little in office to earn them. I believe she is going to struggle to turn things around as it is evident she struggles to connect with the public. I feel it is now deep seated and that the strong and stable mantra will stay with her forever.

  35. I said on here yesterday that it was important that May issued timescales for sorting out accommodation for residents. Good to see she has spelt out this will be completed within three weeks. It is so important that the residents are rehoused quickly.

  36. @Voice

    Yes, the PM just threw the council under the bus.

    The statement finally sounded Prime Ministerial. If the council have been a shambles because they’re a shambles, then fine.

    If the council is a shambles because they’re doing all they can with inadequate resources, May will have just made things worse.

  37. COLIN
    Reliably sourced?
    Probably, but needing, as they say, contextualisation – better, I think, provided on Politicshome and possibly in the original BBC report:
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/86715/john-mcdonnell-calls-1m-people-%E2%80%98get 15th January 2017
    The Politicshome blog referred to a mooted TUC proposal for a union organised protest on July 1, specifically against a Conservative/DUP supply and confidence alliance, and reported that
    “Speaking at the annual conference of the food-workers union the BFAWU, Mr McDonnell said: “We need people doing everything they can to ensure the election comes as early as possible.”
    “What we need now is the TUC mobilised, every union mobilised, get out on the streets.
    “Just think if the TUC put out that call – that we want a million on the streets of London in two weeks’ time.”
    Most of the comments of the CANARY blog that you referenced are in fact highly critical of the blog’s call to interpret McDonnell as calling for “rioting” etc.

  38. I also feel for the poor sods in council middle management who were simply following instructions who are going to be scapegoated here.

    Probably whoever in procurement who drew up contract guidelines as well. You can be absolutely sure that nobody with a political career will be found to be to blame. Just the poor bloody infantry as usual. The number of lives ruined is not yet complete.

  39. Mike

    I’m quite sure you are wrong about Theresa, “nothing has changed” “nothing has changed”

  40. EDERYN

    Not entirely clear whether your irony detector was activated or not?

  41. The meme that Theresa May ‘get things done’ is just that – a meme.

    She is infamous in civil service circles for being ineffective as Home Secretary and almost invisible when problems arise – her civil service nickname is ‘The Submarine’ for a reason.

    So I think those hoping for a dynamic delivery-focused Mrs May to spring from the phone booth into which this inept and ineffectual Theresa has just toddled are likely to be disappointed…

  42. EDEYRN
    Why do people think Corbyn is hard left…his manifesto was soft left “social democrat” territory…………nothing like what Marx hoped for
    And I didnt even vote Labour this election :D

    State requisition of private empty property is soft left. Ok then….

  43. @Colin. At the risk of being pilloried for simply pointing out the obvious, you have totally missed “the point”.

    Meanwhile, I see 13 pages of UKPR off-topic comments. Just sayin’ :-)

  44. Well one good thing to come out of all of this is we finally have an opposition party that have stopped fighting themselves and are now doing what they are supposed to do { challenge the government when they are getting it wrong.}

    And a media that is willing to challenge the government, even the good old Daily Mail.

    Whatever the motives, the result has evidently been helpful for the people caught up in these events.

    Must chalk that up as a win for democracy.

  45. PAUL
    “Mind you, free lessons was Marxism gone mad, to be fair.”
    Not if you ever listened to Arnold Wesker, or if you’ld been to concerts or had your kids musically educated in the good old SU. Visits to the Vilnius Concert Hall or to the Opera in 1989 were a joy, not so much for the music but for the family participation at the price of 2 roubles per ticket and half for children and the hot chocolate and Champagne on the messanine promenade, where the crowd drifted round greeting each other and measurig up the talent during the interval – or went in cheerful family audiences to the quite thrilling experimental transexual dance theatre in Moscow – though, admittedly, this was during the uncertain days of Gorbachev’s perestroika.

  46. Corbyn LAB are mid-left according to political compass but it a huge move from being mid-right in 2015.

    Miliband
    https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015

    versus, Corbyn
    https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2017

    looks like only the Scottish Socialist Party are more left than Corbyn and worth remembering that LAB manifesto was heavily toned down!!

    P.S. The Authoritarian/Libertarian axis on political compass must use awful measures. Libertarian is a very loose set of beliefs and you really need to define it as Left or Right at the outset.

  47. With all the talk of May being replaced, it’s worth remembering we have some polling on this from YouGov last Sunday (and I wouldn’t be surprised tomorrow as well):

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/suxvyoj3iz/SundayTimesResults_170610_PostElection_W.pdf

    While the headline was that May and Corbyn were now tied for who would make the best PM on 39%, 48% (v 38%) though May should stand down. But among Tory voters 71% to 21% thought she should stay, and only 32% thought the Party would have done better under a different leader[1]. Conservatives are usually loyal to their leaders, but they seem unenthused by the alternatives as well.

    Asking about whether various of the usual suspects would may a good or poor leader got the following differences with Tory voters in []:

    Johnson 24-52 = -28 [39 – 37 = +2]

    Davis 15- 24 = -9 [28 – 17 = +11]

    Rudd 14 – 32 = -18 [20 – 27 = -7]

    Hammond 11 – 31 = -20 [16 – 31 = -15]

    Fox 7 – 27 = -20 [12 – 25 = -13]

    Gove 6 – 55 = -49 [11 – 51 = -40]

    Leadsom[2] 5 – 28 = -23 [8 – 26 = -14]

    Osborne 12 – 52 = -40 [13 – 57 = -44]

    Davidson 20 – 15 = +5 [28 – 11 = +17]

    These range from the indifferent to the infuriated. Davidson looks best but with many people simply not knowing about her[3]. The loathing with which Osborne and Gove are held is really quite impressive – and shared across the political spectrum[4]. YouGov also asked a simple choice question which Boris topped (18%, [25%]), but that may simply be name recognition from the figures and he looks like he may be even more toxic with the public, Tory voters and members than he was last year when he chickened out.

    In truth only Davis looks a possibility from that list, though neither Greening nor Green were asked about and both might be good bets. May could simply stay on as PM for lack of attractive alternatives.

    [1] Of course that may have changed in the last week, though a lot of the attacks on May strike me as over the top and often nasty. She’s clearly awkward and rather shy with people and not necessarily fluent in a crisis. She looks like she recoils from Blair style touchy-feeliness and dislikes its inauthenticity. Having her advisers removed can’t have helped either.
    But some of the accusations of not caring and callousness are clearly unfair and not likely to convince her own supporters. She has always suffered from not quite being ‘One Of Us’ in the politico-media bubble and many of those inside it (from various political allegiances) would obviously like to replace her with a chum.

    [2] Incidentally does anyone know why Leadsom was sent to meet the victims? You’d think the Leader of the House was the least relevant cabinet minister possible.

    [3] It has to said that I think she would be a disaster. She has benefited from an adoring media both in Scotland and London and a lot of her backing looks like “She must be good because everyone thinks so”. But her dropping popularity in Scotland and some of her recent performances suggest she might not cope well under scrutiny, even worse than May (she gets aggressive).

    [4] YouGov also asked if various people should be retained in or asked to join the Cabinet. Gove got similar levels of distaste from that and Hunt was almost as disliked – only splitting 30-30 even among Conservatives. May might not have helped her government’s popularity by including them. (Ken Clarke typically got more support from outside his Party than in and IDS did rather well from both).

  48. @ Voice_Of_Reason
    @ SSSIMON

    “Actually when I saw the headlines attacking her in the Daily Mail and Express yesterday I had similar thoughts. Certainly it didn’t do Corbyn any harm to be hounded by them.”

    I’m not overly persuaded there is any equivalence. Corbyn being attacked by the Mail/Express is business as usual for the right wing press. It feeds into a long standing perception on the centre and left that Labour in general and Corbyn in particular don’t get a fair hearing from this segment of the press.

    TM being attacked by the Mail (formerly one of the main cheerleaders for her fan club) is very different. It a bit like the manager of a football team getting booed by the home fans. Rarely a sign of a long tenure ahead, but sometimes they can turn it round.

    TM has been going backwards ever since the Local Elections – she urgently needs to stop the rot. An agreement with DUP, and getting the QS through could help stabilise the situation, but she has no credit left with the party or the country to carry her through the inevitable sticky patches in the Brexit negotiations.

  49. Richard

    “Well one good thing to come out of all of this is we finally have an opposition party that have stopped fighting themselves”

    It reminded me to Engels’s letter to Bernstein in 1883. It will end like that.

    “It seems that every workers’ party in a big country can develop only by inner struggle, in full conformity with the laws of dialectical development in general. The German Party has become what it is in a struggle between the Eisenachers and the Lassalleans, in which the fight itself played a major role. Unity became possible only when the gang of rascals deliberately reared by Lassalle to serve him as a tool had played itself out, and even so our side showed much too much haste in agreeing to unity. In France, the people who, although they have sacrificed the Bakuninist theory, continue to employ Bakuninist methods of struggle and at the same time want to sacrifice the class character of the movement to their own special ends, must also first play themselves out before unity can again become possible. To preach unity under such circumstances would be sheer folly. Moral preaching is of no avail against infantile diseases, which under present circumstances have to be gone through.”

  50. it’s a highly unusual feeling – nodding in agreement most of the time when reading Colin’s comments for days now.

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