New swingometers

A brief note – I’ve updated the two graphical swingometers on the site so they are based on the 2017 election results. The basic version is here, and the fancy version that lets you put in separate Welsh and Scottish figures is here (the old version without the map isn’t yet updated).


828 Responses to “New swingometers”

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  1. CHARLES

    Well expressed indeed. Thanks for the link.

  2. She has said that she doesn’t feel ready… wants to be deputy leader instead, for which she will be a shoe-in.

  3. Charles

    I have to say that piece you found is the most utter nonesense. It remains perfectly clear to many that we are leaving the EU as planned, The negotiations start tomorrow and the UK stance was clearly outlined in the White Paper.

    At the moment I dip in from time to time but as I posted this morning I find political opinion such as this verges on the “politics of the absurd” and i am not interested in wasting my time on it. I am amazed you are even though I appreciate you did not want us to leave.

  4. My guess

    Con 38
    Lab 45
    Lib 8
    UKIP 4
    Others 5

  5. @Charles

    Thanks for the link to the Fintan O’Toole article. Very perceptive and incisive.

  6. Macron’s party secures a majority in the French assembly elections.

  7. My punt is

    Cons 35
    Lab 43
    LD 10
    UKIP 3

  8. @ToH

    I don’t think that the article said that Brexit would not happen or that what we wanted was not clear. It just said what we wanted was impossible and that we could not have our cake and eat it. As far as I know you agree with that, in that you do expect some immediate negative economic impact from Brexit but that it will be more than compensated by the long-term beneitts.

    Personally I think that Brexit is much more likely to happen than not. So the issue for me is what kind of Brexit it is and how soon it has to be done and dusted. I don’t see how we can possibly negotiate a full new relationship in two years and even if we could we would not have negotiated new deals with other people to replace those we have lost. And even if we could do that I very much doubt that Brttish Industry will be able to turn itself and create enough exports to China, India etc to replace the markets it will be eriding in Europe.

    So somehow we have to find a viable short-term compromise that a) does not lead Brexiters to have a melt-down b) does not lead to immediate economic disaster and c) can command the acceptance of 27 European states. Personally I can’t see what that compromise is going to be, but it is in my view, something to which the great minds of UKPR should be turning their attention.

  9. Full blooded Brexiteers, of which I am one, have a very simple vision of Brexit, out of the single market, out of the customs union, freed from freedom of movement and out from under the ECJ. It has little to do with money, at least for me, I expect to pay into things like open skies, we will still invest in ptojects like the ITER reactor (which already has non EU contributors) & the Tories have no option but to deliver a Brexit on those terms because enough of the PCP want it as do a majority of members.

    When May goes, as she will after the Queen’s speech but before Parliament rises for the summer recess every serious contender for leader will be offering a Brexit on those terms, along with the framework of their idea of a populist manifesto for use after the boundary reforms go through.

  10. Charles

    Agreed. The EU has stated several times that the deal we can strike outside of the EU cannot be better or even as good as being in. Quite what they mean by that who knows.

    My view is that if we leave, pay a huge wad of cash for leaving, and then pay a sum each year for getting some kind of tariff free access to the single market without any option to vote on anything then that is worse than being a member. Can’t see how such a deal can be in the national interest TBH.

    If we decide to stay in the single market then we are practically still members but, again, without any voting rights. We can’t veto anything, Again, don’t see how that is in the national interest.

    The more I think about it, the more I can’t see any solution to Brexit that will be acceptable to all th various Brexit factions.

    I was originally undecided in 2016 but votes remain as thought bette the devil you know, I’m not firmly remain as I really can’t see the point of it. To my mind, we would be better staying as we are and instead, introducing massive regeneration investment in those areas most affected by immigration. My gut feel is that a lot of the leave vote was from people angry that their areas were run down and not seeming to benefit from membership. We need to address those problems seriously. If governments had done that then there would have been no grievance in the first place,

    The other option is to just leave with no deal and fall back to WTO rules. There would be a short to medium term hit economically. But the UK would have to fake a long term view and gamble on things being better in 20 to 50 years. Bit of a gambie with the future of our country IMO. Not really an option for me.

    In short. Brexit is more trouble than it’s worth and we could solve the issues that led to the leave sentiment in other ways.

  11. HIRETON

    Sounds good re Macron, but that still seems to be the exit poll prediction from the BBC and Sky News reports. I can’t seem to spot estimated count times anywhere.

    CHARLES @ TOH

    Anything could happen if we have another GE very soon, but given that the only possible mates for the Cons are the DUP, I think there will have to be an EEA style compromise, possibly billed as a transition deal which somehow never quite transitions. May would at least have a plausible line by selling it as necessary to preserve the precious union.

  12. my guess for Survation

    LAB 45
    CON 37
    LD 9
    UKIP 3

  13. People often forget that for most countries in the EU, when they say No they really do mean No.

    We’re kind of used to politicians saying no, but then uturns or watering down happening, so we associate no as being “not yet”, “maybe” or “possibly”. But generally, in other countries when they say no or can’t happen, they mean exactly that and get annoyed when they’re continually asked the same thing over and over again.

    There is a big cultural difference between the politics of the U.K. and other European countries and I think a lot of people have not grasped this (including politicians of all UK parties unfortunately)

  14. Re the MoS Survation poll – Customs Union Option

    @TREVOR WARNE (10:29)

    Trevor, I do appreciate that it is difficult to word the poll questioning on the negotiated settlement option clearly and succinctly, I just felt that Survations framing of the probable key benefits without mentioning the probable key drawbacks would have led to a particularly misleading poll outcome allowing headline writers to misleadingly claim that 62% either want a “soft” brexit or to abort brexit altogether with a further 11% dont knows.

    IMV any negotiated settlement is likely to lean towards be quite a “hard” brexit if the the stated UK govt red lines are incorporated and the stated EU red lines are incorporated. There is no point in negotiating a deal that is completely unacceptable to one side or the other. Survation seem to have ignored this possibility altogether in their poll. I just think it is a very misleading poll questioning which gives an opportunity to misrepresent the results inferred from the misleading questioning.

    @HIRETON (10:43)

    Good point about Turkey’s membership of the Customs Union whilst remaining outside of the EEA/Free Movement.

    The Survation poll questioning was the main thrust of my earlier post and their proposed scenario was “Paying a fee to the EU for access to this “customs union” EU companies would also then have an automatic right to free trade with UK companies UK companies would have an automatic right to free trade with the EU”. I’m pretty sure that would rule out the Turkish option.

    Also on the Turkish option I believe that the UK govt would be unlikely to be attracted to this kind of deal alone since it would benefit the EU 27 and their huge trade surplus of goods with the UK but would not help the UK with the UK’s trade surplus in the service sector/financial services etc. As a separate aside on the Turkish solution I do wonder how it can even be possible for the EU to enforce these strict Customs Union rules on their very many problematic land borders.

    @BARBAZENZERO (10:47)

    Again as per my above comment my main focus was on Survation’s poll questioning. If they had meant EEA membership then they should have at the very least still have pointed out the probable key drawbacks to this kind of (Norwegian/Swiss) arrangement rather than portraying in their it as a relatively painless option that just needs an unspecified amount of money throwing at it but without any other serious drawbacks. I just think it is plain wrong to infer from the Survation poll that 37% of the electorate would welcome the EEA option including the obvious drawbacks or that 62% of the electorate want Brexit terminated or an EEA type of arrangement.

  15. Scotland and Labour

    has the SNP considered the possibility that they will be reduced to a side show by a labour resurgence. in scotland?

  16. MARTIN L @ BZ

    Prior to the kamikaze GE, I’d have agreed that there are other options a majority Con government could have sought and which might have been included in such a poll.

    Trouble is that being in a minority, they’ll have to compromise, even with their own affiliated SCons let alone the DUP.

    The DUP are being unusually collegiate in trying to achieve a soft border, which is also dear to the hearts of all the other Stormont parties including SF. If they fail, then they will take all the NI blame for the Belfast Agreement being trashed and make the likelihood of a united Ireland a little closer.

    For the SCons, EEA membership with issues like CAP and CFP devolved to Scotland would at the very least delay indyref2. Failure to negotiate that might well put them back to 1 MP.

  17. MARTIN L @ BZ

    I should have added that the questions asked in the Survation poll may well have been specified by the MoS, possibly expecting a more favourable result from their very partisan perspective.

    I seem to recall AW posting such a thread during a period of polldrums but I could be mistaken.

  18. Barbazenzero – don’t assume too much about the MoS’s partisan perspective: remember the Mail on Sunday backed Remain (reportedly because of the internal politics between Dacre and Greig)

  19. MRQUEUE
    [T]he Tories have no option but to deliver a Brexit on those terms because enough of the PCP want it as do a majority of members.

    How will she or her successor get that passed by the current HoC given that s/he has no majority?

  20. ANTHONY WELLS

    Thanks. I’d forgotten that.

  21. The Mail on Sunday is nowhere near as right wing as the Mail. A different newspaper in terms of both tone and content.

  22. Charles
    Thanks for the link.
    Always instructive to see ourselves as others see us.

    I think the Brexit means Brexit brigade are in some form of denial.

  23. @BARBAZENZERO

    The desire on both sides of the irish land border for there to be no return to a hard border might be tackled in far more subtle and innovative ways than EEA membership IMV,

    It wont necessarily be perfect but if methods can be found to monitor and prevent any large scale abuse of the open land border (for goods and people) and small scale abuse might be tolerated for the greater good. Maybe in conjunction with severe penalties where abuse is discovered

    Ireland is outside of the Schengen area and Irish citizens themselves have had the right of free movement within the UK since long before the 1950’s European project was even conceived. For people it might be acceptable for airlines/ferry services to introduce basic checks on the movement of non UK/Irish Citizens from Northern Ireland over to mainland Britain.

    For goods movements it might be possible monitor the Irish land border electronically and use intelligent IT solutions/machine intelligence to track legitimate duty paid cross border shipments and flag up potential large scale illicit cross border goods shipments. It is pretty common with large scale international goods shipments for electronic pre-notification of shipment.

    As to the political will and balance of power with DUP and SCons obviously it is difficult/impossible to foresee exactly what might happen. I appreciate that Labour has tried to be all things to all people but Labour’s stated position pre election was to end free movement though obviously many Labour voters are pro EU and want to keep it. If it comes down to Labour, DUP and SCons all opposing a Conservative drive to push through an end to free movement then that is likely to result in a fresh election IMV and it could be a risky strategy for both SCons, Conservatives and Labour.

  24. For those that wish to discuss Brexit, I say: “New thread”

  25. MARTIN L @ BZ

    First the Belfast Agreement gives the right of the NI population to determine their own status if any change in it is proposed.

    Second, the 500 km open border is a major success of the peace process and involves herds of cattle roaming fields on both sides.

    Technology could indeed solve border truck crossings, but not people crossing short of putting up a DDR style barbed wire fence.

    The RoI and the EU understand this, which is why it is scheduled to be in the preliminary talks. All of the NI parties want to retain an open border.

    You may be right that at some point a UK government might decide to ditch them, but for all her faults I think May recognises that what you suggest is not on. Fortunately for her, she can hide behind the DUP for now.

  26. MARTIN L @ BZ

    PS if you wish to respond, please do it on the new thread.

  27. Trigguy

    What about those who don’t give two figs about Brexit? ( ^ ^ )

  28. Corbyn now polling 44-41 by Survation, why no article given how unstable this govt is? Also polled, 55% in favour of soft brexit. 60% want a cross party negotiating team. And remain now polling 51-49 brexit. Big shifts in attitudes here.

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