As usual, the final poll of the campaign (unless ICM do release updated figures) is from Ipsos MORI, who traditionally keep on polling on Wednesday evening and publish their final call in Thursday’s Evening Standard. Topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 36%(-4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 4%(+2), giving them an eight point Tory lead. Two slight changes since the last poll – MORI have expanded their turnout adjustment to include tenure and, in the same way as they have done in their final call at past general elections, they’ve reallocated people who are certain to vote but are still saying don’t know in line with their newspaper readership. Full tabs are here.

And, that’s it until 10pm, when we will get the headline call from the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll from MORI and GfK.


2,965 Responses to “Final poll – Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 44%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%”

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  1. @LambethGreen

    Yes, from what I can tell in my own very limited bubble, Labour went way beyond targeting, and used videos and memes designed to go viral. Good humour has the capacity to penetrate otherwise unreceptive groups (whether in right-wing bubbles or not politically interested).

    This is where the left (supposedly) will always have an advantage – the right just can’t do humour.

  2. DANNY

    It is not possible to retract Article 50 even if you wanted it and TM would never do it. Her commitment to delivering Brexit is the only thing she has left to cling to. Therefore If the EU offer the bad (or worse) deal I’m more expecting she will not accept it as it would be worse than No deal. Therefore we will end up with No Deal unless you think the remainers in the CONs will seize the leadership to take a bad deal?

  3. We all see what we want to see and I never cease to be amazed at how poor political experts are at reading the electorate.They should all get out more.

    We impose our view on reality and then complain at the outcome.

    I admit I saw the election as an opportunity to validate my view that the two leaders were as poor a pair as I have seen .As a centrist I wanted to see the back of JC but he has had the last laugh .I dismissed TM from day one as a lightweight and couldnt see why she was initially so popular but the voters saw thru her.

    Brexit and Scottish independence might both be dead in the water.

    I doubt whether any of these leaders will survive for long.

    My prediction was modelled on Opinium and I didnt have a bet.

    Watch Dominic Raab and Chuka are my tips for the future.

  4. @Fred

    “To accuse someone of being terrorist friendly . . .was beneath contempt.”

    Actually, this was one of the true things they said about him. The truth hurts, whether or not younger generations believe this about him or whether they prefer to accept his revisionist account of things.

    Not one person of any political stripe who remembers well the 80s*, except Corbyn’s own allies, would secretly deny his very friendly links over many years with both terrorist groups and dictatorships. (*not that it ended in the 80s, but that’s when he tends to be most associated with it)

    That Corbyn did much better in the election than expected should earn him no apologies for these ‘accusations’, whatever else may have been said incorrectly about him.

    MI5 weren’t secretly watching Corbyn until the early noughties just because they were bored. Oddly enough, they had cause for worry.

  5. The other Howard,
    “Since Brexit is the most important thing for the UK’s future IMO”

    yes, we do agree about that. I keep posting here that not only us, but many voters too see it this way, whichever side they are on. And this explains much about this election.

    I wonder if polling will be able to investigate just how deeply this one issue has guided voter behaviour and explains turnout issues? It is an irony, because 5 years ago i argued no one cared about EU membership and that this view was supported bypolling measured voter disinterest in the issue.

  6. Chris in Cardiff – “I’m fairly sure, as is David Davis, that there is a clear HoC majority for EEA”

    But EEA means staying in the Single Market, does it not?

    Both the Conservatives and Labour put leaving the Single Market in their manifestos and a combined 83% voted for that.

    Which means no chance of EEA.

    I personally think the clock will just run down on Brexit and we’ll be out with no deal. Businesses need to start preparing now (move their supply chains, win contracts from outside the EU, automate to replace EU employees etc).

    (Note the EU is still grappling with the Greek thing. They have no deal yet on debt relief and the Greeks are due to run out of money this month. In addition, a dodgy Spanish bank was taken over by Santander yesterday for 1 euro, which means Santander has now acquired a shedload of toxic debt – the same process brought down RBS when they acquired the toxic stuff by taking over ING. The dodgy Italian banks are still looking for rescuers.)

  7. @BT says

    Not holding my breath for the same papers to lay into May for associating with terrorist sympathisers…

  8. LAMBETHGREEN

    The CON maybe behind on Social media but that wouldn’t matter without all of JC’s freebies that the Conservatives would never offer. The youth vote was never going Tory anyway, so the Social Media advantage is GOTV advantage that only applies to the Lab youth anyway.

  9. @Colin

    “May screwed it completely.”

    ———–

    To be fair to Theresa… She inherited a rather difficult hand: More Austerity, School cuts, Brexit, Social Care cuts… practically every attack line of Corbyn’s came courtesy of her predecessors, who possibly pressed for police cuts as well. The reason this wasn’t apparent beforehand is that Cameron and Osborne were up against Miliband and Quasies who weren’t up to challenging it. That said, obviously she might have handled it better… but they didn’t leave her with a big enough majority either…

  10. So from what I’ve heard from someone who was at the count, it looks like the seat next door to me – Kensington – is set to fall to Labour after the final 6pm recount. Didn’t somebody on here also predict that?

    I wonder if this is going to be another 2 seat victory? It’s truly astonishing how many tiny majorities we’ve seen in this campaign. I don’t think it’s ever been matched before.

  11. *2 vote margin, I meant!

  12. @ AR558 – spot on. Corbyn’s “win” will turn out to be an even bigger pyrrhic victory for young voters than Gina Miller’s court case “win”. Not only students still have to continue to take out loans to fund their university fees but the chance of them graduating into a difficult job market have risen significantly.

    Clegg is well aware of the consequences of disappointing the youth vote. Corbyn will be saved the humiliation of having his strings pulled in a coalition (at least NI is 1/4 the size economically/population of Scotland) but I wonder if the euphoria across UK campuses will turn sour pretty quick when the full implications of what has just happened start to sink in.

    Like TOH I think EU is a doomed project but I think it will survive until at least Mar 2019. The EU do not want us back in (and they have MEP elections in mid 2019) but there is a price for everything so let’s start listing the price to Remain/Return (which requires all EU27s countries to agree to):

    1/ Rebate? Doubtful. 20-25bn annual contributions from 2020
    2/ Veto. Gone. QMV changes Apr’17 saw to that on almost everything anyway.
    3/ Trade deals with rest of World. Possible (see Swiss-China) but they will require UK honour most EU requirements so will not be what we could have achieved with a clean Brexit.
    4/ Influence within EU. If we ever had much it has gone now.

    Then move on to the EU’s further wish list:
    5/ EBA, EMA – they’ll probably move even if we stay/return
    6/ EU army?
    7/… It is too depressing to continue.

    Corbyn needed/needs to win a comfortable majority to enact his plan (especially an 11bn/year student fee bill). Don’t get me wrong he did amazing but a full majority with a large enough cushion (given the difference of opinion that exists within the two large parties’ internal ranks) was fantasy.

    I always hoped May would win a “Goldilocks” majority of 50-100 to get Brexit delivered without the far-right of her party (now also include DUP!) pulling her strings.
    Corbyn probably needed/needs the same kind of majority to enact his plans (ie 85+ more seats than he got last night).

  13. With this sea change, it will be interesting to see if new polls on right/wrong to vote to leave the EU show a swing to ‘wrong’.

    Though in a sense I hope not, as it will perpetuate the division / feet-dragging, when we need to all unite and focus on doing it in the best possible way with the right compromises that are right for the most (obviously you will never please everyone enthusiastically, but hopefully all reasonable people will be able to unite around a deal perceived to be a fair balance of rights / trade-offs / costs etc.).

  14. Sssimon, Kensington, I didn’t predict a labour gain but I did point out it was once labour .

  15. AR 558,
    “It is not possible to retract Article 50 even if you wanted it and TM would never do it.”

    Well yes it might be, there has been no ruling on whether we can do so unilaterally. It can most definitely be withdrawn by unanimous agreement.

    You underestimate May if you believe she would not do that if she believed it was the right thing to do. She is surprisingly honest. She is not ‘clinging to hard Brexit’, but I fancy is trying to do the best job she can in a rather difficult situation. My view already expressed is that she saw this election as a test of hard brexit, and will have concluded that it has failed that test.

  16. Here was my prediction (verbal) on June 6th in a text to my friend:-

    (I’m sure you understand the context)

    Whatever happens, they may well have been weakened to the point that the Tories might force a resignation from May after the election. If they have a majority, they will then again have an illegitimate prime minister if they get rid of May, the same circus of a general election will probably happen again within 12 months and next time they’ll have no chance.

    Intellectual pygmies.

  17. Danny

    Good to reach agreement on what is most important for the UK going forward even if we totally disagree on what we want as an outcome.

    It seems to me that this election or more probably the next, will be one of those turning points in the UK’s political history which set the tone for 30-50 years ahead as did the 1945 election.

  18. The conservatives here really don’t seem to get what a hard brexit means. If it happens it will crucify our economy and utterly destroy your party as a political force.

    Moreover before we ever reach that point I 100% believe remainer politicians in May’s party will rebel and either bring about a withdrawal of article 50 or a soft EEA style brexit.

    A hard brexit is simply not going to happen. Not in any way shape or form. This is just more of the disconnect from reality you have all shown on political issues, where others have tried to tell you the honest truth and instead you believe in fantasy land.

  19. Kensington was predicted by YouGov’s model.

  20. @Neil A
    ‘As there are now 7 Shinners, the actual number of MPs a government needs to control the HoC is now 319. ‘
    Surely the key figure is 322? We have 650MPS excluding the Speaker but the 7 SF members decline to take their seats. That leaves us with 643 – so 322 needed for an effective majority.

  21. Someone posted earlier, from memory, that Tories were getting 49% of seats on 42% of the vote. While Labour were 40% of seats on 40% of the vote.

    Is this really the case, and if so, does this mean Tory micro targeting was still quite effective, but swamped by the scale of the swing, and what happens with Boundary changes if Tories are the ones ?ho get more szeats per vote?

  22. Just catching up from over here in US well another plan that didn’t work my view is May will continue as PM until she has some sort of deal from the EU then call another GE based on that deal, I suspect a hard brexit will be replaced by a deal that keeps us in the single market.
    As for the opposition at present Corbyns stock couldn’t be higher however as with the Tory party there are still deep divisions within its ranks and as with a deal with the DUP any deal with the SNP could be equally as fraught.

    So we will see what happens next as they say personally I think May was perfectly right to continue after all although Labour did well the Tories polled more votes and certainly more seats so in that respect won all be it short of a majority. This makes the last three GE very tight for parties trying to get a overall majority perhaps the days of landslides are a thing of the past in a post brexit era.

  23. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/08/world/europe/100000005153210.mobile.html

    There is a very interesting map if you scroll down a bit that shows the swing in each seat.

    Most of England is red, especially London, but a swathe of blue from the North Midlands up through Yorkshire and up to the North East.

  24. ALEXW

    Yes, the economy is indeed going to be in dire straits after Brexit. Which is why Labour probably dodged a bullet. The manifesto relied on raising huge amounts of money from companies and the very high earners. That’s simply not going to be an option post-Brexit.

  25. DANNY

    I think that is wishful thinking on your part. The EU want to make sure no other country ever tries this so the cost to get back in would be enormous, no rebate, no veto, more powers transferred, probably an Entry fee and force us to join the Euro.

    TM is clinging to her commitment to Brexit. There is no hard or Soft Brexit. What the Remainers describe as Soft Brexit is EU membership without the benefits: FOM,ECJ, annual contribution but no representation at best. The deal has to be struck on the basis that they need us as customers for their products and a strong PM could play hardball. Yes the EU could have killed us but we could have taken them down with us. TM won’t U-turn against 52% of the largest vote in UK history. If she even tried the CON party would end her instantly as the CON party would end up with no seats whatsoever at any following election.

  26. Carfrew – you can’t tell like that. FPTP rewards the victor, so the winning party will usually get more seats for votes. The ways to compare are to look at the average electorate for each party’s seats, or to do a uniform swing so the parties are equal in votes, and see who would have more seats.

    I haven’t looked yet, but others tell me that it looks as though the vote distribution may have shifted a bit in Labour’s favour.

  27. @ROBIN
    “@BT says
    Not holding my breath for the same papers to lay into May for associating with terrorist sympathisers…”

    Forgive me saying so, but if you are meaning the current DUP eg Arlene Foster who would have been quite young during the troubles, then this is a very immature response, which doesn’t hide the facts regarding the Corbyn.

    Of course there were bad loyalist politicians who tacitly supported paramilitary activity from ‘their side’, eg Ian Paisley snr. Whether you could regard the whole party as the ‘political wing’ of the paramilitaries like SF were of the IRA I’m not quite sure, this seems OTT though at the end of the day we could argue non-stop about that.

    But the point is that Theresa May is speaking to elected, non-violent politicians in her capacity as PM forming a government! So what a ridiculous comparison!

    Even more cynical than the revisionist attempts to portray Corbyn’s cozying up to the IRA and Hezbollah etc. as a supportive nobody (except that it gave them credence as he was actually an MP), as somehow equivalent to the secret (then later public) negotiations towards peace by our elected governments of Maggie, Tony Blair and John Major – who, it should be said, spoke endlessly with all sides to achieve peace.

    Not only did Corbyn and McDonnell have no right to undermine this with their support as they were not part of those governments and were obviously not pursuing peace (as the ex-IRA guy said, they were actually prolonging the idea that the ‘bullet and bomb’ were a viable way to continue), but their claims now that they were aiming to bring about peace is farcical given that they made no attempt to hobnob with the other opposing parties and openly undermined them.

    When you think of their revering of Castro and Chavez and their ilk too, their past support for peaceful diplomacy and even democracy really is more tetchy than their supporters would like to know about.

  28. I am a leaver I think now she should retract article 50 if she can’t get out of customs union, but negotiate where Cameron didn’t on freedom of movement and perhaps get an emergency break

    I agree with @AR558 with your points either way everyone will now pay more.

    Only person probably with a smile on her face is the Queen which is very understandable, and probably best thing to have come from this. Apart from TM perhaps staying in power as I think they will now spend a little sensibly on priorities and we might quell the complaints of the electorate in coming years. She might turn it around in fact if she gets chance to last a while longer.

    I don’t know who else would take this on at present otherwise.

  29. candy,
    “Both the Conservatives and Labour put leaving the Single Market in their manifestos ”

    Many things go into manifestos and some get ditched hardly a week after they are issued. So this pledge would have lasted longer than at least one other.

    @@@
    Nuttall seems to think May’s election has now made brexit less likely to happen.

  30. Lots of resistance/horror at the DUP deal building on social media. Not just young ‘uns either. Letters will be written.

    @CLOUDSPOTTER

    Swathes of large rural seats with no people in them!

  31. All this talk of hard and soft Brexits is semantics. Brexit means Brexit!

    Jokes apart, we all know that there needs to be a negotiation to work out the detail and decide what laws we want to retain etc. Soft and Hard Brexits are nonsense, as they imply (only) two outcomes of a highly arbitrary nature (and completely subjective what they mean in different people’s minds).

    I wish the politicians would stop using these dumb expressions, they’re just trying to treat the electorate like ignorant fools again. Stop being lazy and scoring political points, and talk about the challenges and promises of Brexit properly in a coherent manner (applies equally to all sides – though to her credit, May seems to be exempt from this silly stuff even if many in her party aren’t).

  32. Alexw,
    “A hard brexit is simply not going to happen. Not in any way shape or form.”
    Me and a mate who is somewhat my opposite as a through and through conservative, are somewhat of this view. He thinks the conservative party will never let it happen. I think it could, by muddle. I think what we are seeing now is a complex process of persuading the nation to accept remain, and May is the way chosen to persuade us of this.

  33. @ Graham

    You’re doing a Thomas Dolby, blinding yourself with science! 326 is needed for a working majority with 650 MP’s so if 7 on one side of the equation don’t vote it reduces the figure to 319.

  34. AR558,
    ” the cost to get back in would be enormous”
    Then better hope that May/Davis are right to argue we have leverage because the EU wants a deal. The irony for those who voted leave is that we will pay, because it would still be a net gain for the UK. The same logic Ted Heath had to face, and it then took decades to improve our position.

  35. @Neil A
    ‘The legislation has already been passed. We are well overdue a boundary review. For the new boundaries not to come in, we’d either need a change in the law, or a further postponement which would begin to undermine our democratic process.’

    The boundary changes are subject to approval via a Parliamentary vote due in Autumn 2018. Even in the the last Parliament it was far from certain that the Tories would succeed in getting this through given that several Tory MPs were likely to rebel against the reduction in MPs to 600. The DUP has also indicated its opposition. It must now be odds-on that this will fail , and the Government would be well advised to abandon the current review and to introduce legislation to retain 650 MPs . The Government could then proceed with a new review on that
    basis – for which there would likely be crossparty concensus.

  36. @BT

    Oh come on, your party is now collaborating with the political wing of an ex-terrorist group. The DUP have a long and storied history with regards to being terrorist friendly, and not only are you meeting with them but going into an open alliance.

    So please shut up about Corbyn and the IRA, what your party is doing is so much worse.

  37. There is proof that May as Home Office Minister and PM knew about MI5 training and funding the extremists who blew up Manchester and killed in London. She doesn’t associate with terrorists, she gives them carte blanche to take down Libya/Syria and then kill our own people.

    Some of the things the DUP have said are completely vile. How about there is nothing more wrong than child abuse except for homosexuality and sodomy for example. How about the world started in 4000BC and it’s quite young. This terrorist political party that said vote DUP and keep the tories out! Now they’ve done a LibDem and sold out in minutes.

  38. Fred

    Could you leave your tin foil hat at the door before entering please.

  39. The comments section on BBC articles tonight shows the enormous challenge the Cons have with youth voters. I have no doubt a huge amount of these young people know nothing about the DUP, or knew nothing before today, yet some comments are utterly incredible in terms of the level of offence and vitriol aimed at them. Even sectarian which is plain bizarre!

  40. @RICH, the DUP are sectarian by nature, so if they get sectarian flack, tough luck. Hate on catholics and folk will hate back.

  41. @AW

    “Carfrew – you can’t tell like that. FPTP rewards the victor, so the winning party will usually get more seats for votes. The ways to compare are to look at the average electorate for each party’s seats, or to do a uniform swing so the parties are equal in votes, and see who would have more seats.
    I haven’t looked yet, but others tell me that it looks as though the vote distribution may have shifted a bit in Labour’s favour.”

    ——–

    Ah, so you have to equalise, make it like for like. Okies, thanks muchly. I suppose it makes sense that the vote distribution shifted a bit in Labour’s favour, if students were being tactical and registering where their vote would count more…

  42. Guymonde

    Thank you for the insight on papers being folded multiple times, I was presiding at possibly the most Tory station of a very Tory area and, as always was fascinated by the multiple folding, which is generally done in what appears to be a semi-conscious way by one of two partners or a family member, and is very often commented on by their partner. These tend also to be the voters you would expect to have the conversation with about voting in biro. I would be fascinated to find out if anyone has looked into the psychology of this, and whether it is specifically a generally right wing thing or if someone of the left would tend to do it in certain districts.

    Having lurked here for about a decade, what I took with me this time from the polls was the idea of higher youth vote equalling closer result. By midday we’d given out papers to most of those old enough to remember women getting the vote, by five we were seeing queues of under forties and teenagers the like of which we’d not seen at that station before, and they were not the ones generally who had turned out for the referendum.

    I was not, therefore, surprised by the exit poll, having seen the wisdom of ukpr being borne out on the ground.

  43. Or voting where their vote counts more…

  44. Has anyone started looking into the background of the DUP, its pretty horrific. I think if the conservative party go into alliance with them they are playing with fire.

  45. Bt says: “Soft and Hard Brexits are nonsense, as they imply (only) two outcomes of a highly arbitrary nature (and completely subjective what they mean in different people’s minds).”

    I’ve seen this comment from a few posters (TOH is one) and I’m always puzzled by it.

    Clearly possible Brexits form a continuum, from an exit in name only, to crashing out with no deal. That, I assume, is non-controversial.

    So then we have the problem of coming up with short, snappy names for these extremes. Something a bit like left-wing and right-wing as shorthand that we all understand, even if the meaning is a bit fuzzy.

    There are lots of things that fall along a continuum in this way, and that have names. Things like hot and cold, big and small, kind and cruel. In absolute terms, is a boiling kettle hot or cold? You tell me. But we all accept the hot/cold dichotomy as useful. And it’s surely the same with hard and soft Brexit.

  46. Colin

    I see m to remember you being the only person here to pick up on my comment – at a time when what people were mostly worrying about was whether the Tory majority would be closer to 100 than 200 – that it seemed likely to me that a hell of a lot of people would have looked at the Labour manifesto and thought:

    “Ooo, I’ll have some of that, ta very much.”

    I realise that voting rationale is slightly more complex that that but I find it incredible that, at that stage, the Tories didn’t feel it necessary to revise their own, before publication.

  47. I read that David Davis is attracting criticism for pushing for the GE.

    Given the advantages in achieving five years to conclude EU negotiations and the fact that I doubt if he thought May etc would run a kamikaze campaign that seems rather unfair to me.

  48. “The electorate got it wrong’, says Conservative MP CrispinBlunt. ”

    I can only apologise fir the small part I played in this collective error.

  49. LEWBLEW

    Sorry, I was unaware that Barnsley, Doncaster, Mansfield and Grimsby were rural.

  50. If May had gone to the electorate before A50 to get a mandate from the people and presented her Brexit case then, she would probably have got a huge majority, then triggers A50 and has two full yrs to do the job.

    Instead, she wasn’t elected by her party, avoided a GE for a mandate, triggers A50 and forces a deadline date on herself as well, then says 7 times no GE but finally plumps for one because the remainers in the tories are backstabbing her and because she sees a big poll lead and lots of lobby fodder.

    See the two different paths there? One is principled, the other is wimpy and opportunistic, putting herself before the country and her own party. Will be good if Davis takes some flack for this crass strategy. The public smelt a rat but got a ratbot instead. Tories got found out yesterday; tough luck boys.

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