As usual, the final poll of the campaign (unless ICM do release updated figures) is from Ipsos MORI, who traditionally keep on polling on Wednesday evening and publish their final call in Thursday’s Evening Standard. Topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 36%(-4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 4%(+2), giving them an eight point Tory lead. Two slight changes since the last poll – MORI have expanded their turnout adjustment to include tenure and, in the same way as they have done in their final call at past general elections, they’ve reallocated people who are certain to vote but are still saying don’t know in line with their newspaper readership. Full tabs are here.

And, that’s it until 10pm, when we will get the headline call from the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll from MORI and GfK.


2,965 Responses to “Final poll – Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 44%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%”

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  1. @Bantams

    They put repealing the FTPA in the manifesto. It has to be repealed, amended or “looked at” by 2020 by law in any case.

    @TAFIA

    Why will PC boot out Wood, considering they increased their seat number?

  2. @TOMBARRY “After weeks of attacking Corbyn over his alleged links to the IRA will the Tories and the press now be happy with to hold the DUP to the same level of scruinity?.”

    Of course not, but that’s politics for you.

  3. DANNY
    “The other Howard,
    not quite sure what to make of your post. You seem to be of the view that the result of this election is that there will now be a ‘norway style’ soft brexit?”

    I think that is what the opposition and possibly the DUP will try and force through although of course that is not leaving the EU in any real sense. They may succeed but like you I actually doubt it because what happens now that article 50 has been triggered depends on what the EU will accept. My own view has always been that they will try to force us into a deal which is unacceptable to the UK or offer us no deal. We will then have left without a deal or accepted that and revoked Art 50. I cannot see the Conservative party doing the latter but a different Government probably would. Hence my comments that people who want to leave the EU may have to wait until the EU implodes, something you know i believe to be inevitable.

  4. @Andrew Myers

    I heard that there is a new ICM opinion poll coming soon that has the lead of conservatives increased to 13%

    :P

  5. KEN

    “Just a thought. ;-)”

    Great minds as they say. I had the same thought. :-)

  6. SEA CHANGE
    Why will PC boot out Wood, considering they increased their seat number?

    Vote share down, missed primary target – by miles.

  7. THE OTHER HOWARD…..Hear, hear !

  8. @Rich

    “Agree with you. (Providing as I discussed with @robin, the Cons listen & learn).”

    Are they likely to listen and learn? When the Scottish IndyRef was close, I thought there was a window of opportunity for a new agreement, a more formally federal settlement that would keep the UK together and take the heat out of the more radical solution of independence. That wasn’t acted upon. If anything, there was triumphant crowing. Likewise similarly bisected society in the wake of the EURef, I thought there was an opportunity for a Brexit that was as inclusive as possible of those divided viewpoints. Instead, we got posturing that seemed instead to deliberately aggravate any that voted remain (and that impression comes as a Leave voter!). This election has highlighted equivalent rifts down the middle of society, most notably the coming to a head of a generational split that has been building for some time. I really hope we might see some kind of more consensual, compromise solution to bridge such rifts, but I am not optimistic given the recent squandering of similar windows of opportunity. Such windows have not merely been ignored, but have had stones put through them!

  9. Had a day without being able to access/comment on here and i want to congratulate DrMibbles beacause he stuck to his guns despite a lot of criticism, getting the result quite accurate. Mostly though for calling Canterbury correctly

  10. The Tories and their press ran a hate campaign against Corby/Labour. Not a negative campaign, a hate campaign. Any decent Tories should apologise. To accuse someone of being terrorist friendly with two atrocities in sharp view was beneath contempt. For the record, Corbyn is a pacifist and has always said terrorism is wrong. Remember, it was Labour who negotiated the Good Friday agreement that has undoubtedly saved thousands of lives. Each election, tories try to personally smear Labour leaders after saying they believe in good family values. Is respect a family value?

  11. How things go in the next few months will depend very much on whether Labour maintain their A-game or regress to their previous ineffectiveness in opposition. Corbyn really needs to welcome back with open arms some of the more effective big hitters, including Cooper, Umunna – and Miliband, who can surely come back to frontbench politics just as did Hague.

    If May thought getting Brexit through was going to be hard with a working majority, how much harder will it be now? A handful of Tory remainers – or hard Brexiters – will be able to hold her to ransome time and again.

    And how does the House of Lords behave? The Tories did not get a mandate for untrammeled implementation of their manifesto, so it is arguable that the HoL would be within its rights to block even manifesto pledges.

  12. @ DrMibbles

    I do hope you stay on this forum, I am not your greatest fan as you well know, but how can anyone not love the steadfast stance you took on Labour and why they would do well, you even had me nearly placing a bet on Canterbury :)

    Now that it has all calmed down a bit I must say I feel relieved, at 02:00am I though Lab were going to get enough for a minority government but the Tories clung on, just.

    What is really funny is that previous Tory leader would have bitten your hand off for the vote share that TM achieved, yet she has come out looking very poor.

    Tories still in power, life will carry on, I just hope lessons will be learned going forward.

  13. Candy,
    “The campaign turned at the point where the Conservative manifesto came out with the social care thing.

    It didn’t turn because Lab said that they were dumping brexit and the voters were endorsing that.”

    i was following the yougov polls as they came out and watching the conservatives lead. My recollection is the lab scores started to rise before the manifstos came out, certainly before the conservative one came out. At first we discussed here whether it was a random blip, but then plainly it became a trend. if you look at plotted polls, there is a rather lovely pretty straight line through the campaign.

    Tactical voting was already in evidence with the UKIP vote collapsing to con, remain voters amassing under lib. Then the tactical switch of remain to labour began. Libs benefitted at the by election about heathrow, but tactical voters understand perfectly well the need to cluster to the party with the best chance in a general election.

    The proportion of remainers under the labour flag rose from about equal to 3:1 or more, but i fancy it fell back towards the end. I conclude the last thing which happened was leave votersalso turning or returning to labour.
    This is logical, because Labour is a soft brexit party.

    Labour had a brexit based campaign based upon never mentioning Brexit. They aimed not to scare off anyone by being too specific. Corraling remainers to them was accomplished by the libs, who whipped up remain support, and the public campaign for tactical voting. You can see from the polls drops in these small parties accompanying spurts in labour.

    labour accomplished both being the most remain friendly credible party, and simultanously the soft brexit friendly party.

    “I expect there will be a number of Brexiteers in the north who voted Labour who are feeling quite alarmed that their vote is being taken as a vote to endorse dumping brexit,”

    Has anyone polled them? makes sense to me that a soft brexit supporter could be frightened by ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ towards labour leave with a built in safety trip.

  14. ROBIN

    I’ve wondered whether May’s cunning plan (copyright Baldrick) is to try to struggle on, drive through a lunatic Brexit, and hang on until the new boundaries come into effect.

    But the trouble is that she already would have had problems getting it through with her old majority (that may have been another reason for the election), so she’s got no chance now as the DUP weren’t keen on them and Tory backbenchers afraid of losing their seats will feel more emboldened.

    The real joke is that if Cameron had done nothing rather than pushing his cunning plan forward (twice) there would have been a non-controversial boundary review due by about now anyway. Instead there will be proposals which will be easy for both Commons and Lords to shoot down.

    The sensible, non-partisan approach would be scrap the reduction of Commons’seats from 650 to 600 and the rigorous 5% limit and go ahead with a ‘normal’ boundary review perhaps a bit more speeded up than it used to be. But sense and non-partisanship are rare qualities in British politics at the moment.

  15. I’m not sure if I’m staggered or impressed that Teresa May seems to have dusted herself off, checked that Foster is on board and then ploughed on. Of course there are huge barriers in front of her now; internally she is massively weakened, David Davis has conceded they may need a new approach to Brexit and of course there are a core of Tory Remainers who will probably be emboldened now. Her domestic agenda will not be helped by a small majority and I suspect the grammar schools proposals will disappear into the long grass. I find it hard to see how she will survive for long but we don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes. I have to say I’d be staggered if BoJo succeeds her; I think there are plenty of decent candidates on the Tory benches but he has surely shot his bolt at the end of the referendum and is now seen as a comedy act.

    “Who is more Prime Ministerial Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson?” is sadly a rather more equal contest than Teresa May or JC sadly because you’ll have half the country doubled up laughing.

    I’d bet on period of very unambitious Govnt or another election soon

  16. @Robin, she’s gonna find out how the POTUS feels soon enough, a lot of checks and balances are suddenly built into our elected dictatorship system.

  17. @tombarry

    It looks like the Conservatives apply different rules to DUP contacts with paramilitary organisations compared with other parties:

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/dup-chief-arlene-foster-met-uda-boss-days-after-loyalist-murder-in-bangor-35776873.html

    It is also surprising to me that so far I have not seen or heard any mainstream media discussion of the implications of the Tory/DUP alliance for government in NI where the UK Government either has to act honest broker to restore power sharing or act as impartial administrators of direct rule. Can the nationalist community have any faith in it now to do either impartially?

  18. When is the next comres poll with a 15 points lead?

  19. Hello All

    Just wanted to congratulate you all for your resilience and prediction capabilities.

    It’s ironic that the DUP arrangement will actually allow some Conservative policies to be implemented. The Blue Manifesto was rather lacking in this respect.

    Until the next one, which may be sooner than we think.

  20. Guardian is reporting on comments by the Alliance, (correctly) pointing out that the arrangement with the DUP fundamentally undermines the government’s neutrality with respect to power sharing and the NI administration.

    This has really rather serious implications.

  21. Danny

    “It didn’t turn because Lab said that they were dumping brexit and the voters were endorsing that.”

    There is not a shred of evidence for that.

  22. Regarding getting stuff done in the next Parliament. The Conservatives have already legislated for most of their agenda during the Coalition years.

    They just need to let all that stuff bed in, get budgets passed but otherwise have a very light parliamentary schedule and focus full-square on Brexit. It will be boring for MPs, but is the most sensible way to deal with a hung parliament situation.

  23. Robin

    “Corbyn really needs to welcome back with open arms some of the more effective big hitters, including Cooper, Umunna – and Miliband, who can surely come back to frontbench politics just as did Hague.”

    —–

    Absolutely, this would be the perfect scenario for many, Labour build on the Corbyn-as-outsider support, but with full (mutual) support from some of the best of the PLP, uniting behind the Money Tree Manifesto. That would be very electable indeed, especially as I can’t see where the next Tory leader is coming from. WIll Momentum and the rest of the Party Membership let it happen? Who knows.

  24. Okay, been up for 19 hours. Fascinating day.

    Sadly I think there are no real winners. We have a thoroughly divided Parliament and a PM holed below the waterline and we are about to enter the most important period for the country since the late1940s

    I do want to thank Teresa May for giving us all an education on how not to run a GE Campaign. Long will that lesson be remembered.

    And a salute once again to Sir Mibbles. Well played Sir.

  25. the other Howard,
    “My own view has always been that they will try to force us into a deal which is unacceptable to the UK or offer us no deal. We will then have left without a deal or accepted that and revoked Art 50. I cannot see the Conservative party doing the latter”

    I think the irish will not stand for a pure hard brexit, they could not. So I see your logic, and particularly since there might then be a majority in parliament for revocation instead. The government could not simply dissolve parliament against this majority.

    But on the other hand, the matter is very uncertain, so i still see the possibilty of a hard brexit almost by accident. Contrariwise, I remain unconvinced that May wants a hard brexit either.

    Also i take the opposite side of the ‘glas half full’ style argument about the deal the EU might offer. I do not see they have much room for maneuvre even if most of the members wanted desperately to give the Uk a special deal. It will be standard terms or nothing as was always the case. Nothing May or anyone else might do in negotiation to change that.

  26. @Robin; she won’t get her preferred Brexit (to the extent that she had one) through now. I’m fairly sure, as is David Davis, that there is a clear HoC majority for EEA and if they can get a few concessions on immigration and a tolerable financial settlement then I can see a UK Govnt heading in that direction – but not one headed by TM. It won’t of course be great for Conservative Party unity but it would be achievable without wrecking the economy and would bring business back behind them when they were strangely quiet in this election even when faced with McDonnell’s “interesting” spending plans

  27. @Mike,

    I strongly suspect McDonnell will be against letting any Blairites/moderates back in. It would however be a smart move as opens up a new chunk of voters.

  28. @KEN

    “I expect I’ll get pilloried for this, but I wonder if JC has shot his bolt, he had a chance and blew it. Next time he plays pork barrel politics perhaps people will remember last night……’ you told us, if we voted for you, no tuition fees, money tree ‘ What did we get ? 5 more years of Tory rule.
    Just a thought. ;-)”

    ———-

    Dunno why you should get pilloried. There’s value in considering all viable possibilities, however unpalatable some may find it.

    Jezza was always constrained in what he could offer, partly because of the growing debt overhang, partly because of the need to be credible. Partly because press.

    And ideas that don’t cost money, to some extent have to keep them until in power, otherwise easier to have the, snaffled.

    Up to now, people generally seemed to consider Corbyn as a placeholder till someone more electable came along. But now peeps have seen his campaigning skillz, ditching him is a bit more problematic. But then, if he steps down to another senior position…

  29. Hello! I see Labour won Canterbury. Looks like that 10% _increase_ in votes wasn’t fictional after all. Also, congrats to Dr Mibbles (not sure that’s the right name)?

  30. @Chris in Cardiff

    But is UK membership of the EEA palatable to a) the EU or b) the other EEA members (who I believe can veto)?

    It is my understanding that the current EEA (non-EU) members are very hostile to UK membership, because we are a much larger economy than they are and therefore threaten to marginalise them in future EEA-EU relations.

  31. Robin,
    “How things go in the next few months will depend very much on whether Labour maintain their A-game or regress to their previous ineffectiveness in opposition.”

    yes. The only thing I would say is that had labour been a really effective team as they could be, there would not have been an election. But we shall see if they can now work effectively.

    However, they might wish to contemplate the benefits of maintaining a critical distance from the conservatives rather than becoming a partnership to develop Brexit. There is lots of blame coming down the line for someone.

  32. @Chris,

    Having a majority for EEA doesn’t mean that option will ever be put before parliament. May is blinkered and stubborn enough to simply plough on and try to face people down.

    That will probably be the point at which the wheels fall off, but it could be a little while, and we might find ourselves with a non-functioning government with only 6 months left.

    At that point, an incoming government (of either strand), would have no choice but to request an extension to the negotiations, on whatever terms the EU are minded to allow.

    With that in prospect, I suspect we will see a challenge to May’s leadership very soon, perhaps within weeks – so that the new leader can be in place for the conference season and once the German elections have happened.

    Maybe good old Ken Clarke will do the country and his party a service and start the ball rolling. If any Tory is selfless enough to do it, then he is.

  33. The Irony of the result is while the young have backed JC and removed Tory Maj, they have weakened her hand massively to get a good Brexit deal. This means we will either get a Bad deal (£100bn bill, FOM, ECJ and No Trade Deal) which would be awful or No Deal which is exactly the hardest brexit that the youth didn’t want. As a result there will likely be higher taxes, lower economic activity and none of the benefits of the EU but all the costs. If the youth had really wanted to stop Brexit should have voted LD on-masse or given TM big Maj this time so we got a good deal and then the could flock to JC at the next GE.

  34. Danny

    “so i still see the possibilty of a hard brexit almost by accident”

    We are almost in agreement although as you know I dont accept the concept of hard or soft Brexit. We either leave or we don’t. Since Brexit is the most important thing for the UK’s future IMO, then that is what I am hoping for now, even though it will be painful in the short term for many on both sides of the channel.

  35. On EEA membership, can anyone recall the status of those cases that were set to judge whether or not leaving the EU leaves our EEA membership intact (so that we have to separate revoke that)?

    IIRC they were thrown out (for the time being) since there was not currently a proposal to leave the EEA, so there was no government decision to be challenged? At some point that will have to be reopened.

  36. What mess.

    Very exciting & all that-but a mess.

    May screwed it completely. She must be on borrowed time in her own Party.

  37. @Imperium3; from what I recall Norway’s initial hostility has watered down quite a lot to the point where they are “waiting for the call”; it’s in the interests of everyone in Europe to have the UK as a fully paid up member of the wider trading architecture (which is why May always claimed she could get a good bespoke deal) so I suspect the EEA members will accept this even if they do something to protect their influence in EEA-EU discussions

  38. @AR558

    The only constraints on the deal we can achieve with the EU are ones we ourselves impose, and that has not changed one iota. Parliamentary arithmetic has no impact on the ability of the executive to negotiate.

    The problem comes not from a completely inappropriate poker metaphor, but because the EU has no idea if the person they sit down with next week will still be there in 3 months.

  39. I’m not sure, even with the best will in the world, that Corbyn convincing some of the moderates to return would be either feasible or possible. To many egos and too much disloyalty would risk seriously undermine the work done so far. In addition I’m not sure the moderates would be prepared to get behind the manifesto. It’s a shame that talent will go to waste, but that’s how I fell it has to be.

  40. Predictions

    Over the last 24 hours the site has covered itself in glory by providing a valuable insight (sadly not from myself) in to what what was really happening with posters demonstrating an independent spirit and refusal to accept the views of the herd.

    Sir Mibbles is rightly singled out for special praise. i just wished that i had money on canterbury!

    well done you gov as well. Never will i doubt you again (until the next time that is)

  41. Re shy tories

    I observed the count last night. Most ballot papers are folded in 2. Perhaps one in fifty (at the count I observed) was folded in 4 or more. Every single one of these was a Tory!

  42. Our Scotland contributors have gone unusually quiet, apart from a wise message from Peter.

    But I have been struck by how other regulars from outwith the polity have not learnt much from last night`s Scottish results, and have made shallow judgements about some of the politicians here.

    There have even been two or three folk saying Ruth Davidson was the star of the show and a candidate to be a future PM. IMO she has not the flair or intelligence to lead a very divided Tory party, and simply hasn`t experience or understanding of key issues in rUK.

    One reason why there is this lack of understanding is that SNP-favouring messagers have been the majority of the Scotland correspondents. Centrist messages have either been moderated out as irrelevant or their authors have transgressed in too-strong wording.

    Also Scotland is treated as one region by the London-based media, and they cannot comprehend, or don`t wish to, that there are strong regional differences in occupations, outlook and social class. YouGov`s new model likely took this into account, and hence its predictions were pretty accurate.

    And for future polling, the other companies will have to improve their stratifications if they want to remain in political business.

  43. ROBIN

    I disagree. A PM with a large majority is much more a formidable opponent for the EU as they know she can back up what she says and therefore are more likely to concede more favourable terms for the UK. A weak PM can be bullied as she doesn’t have the ability to stand her ground without worrying about the Remainers in her party outvoting her.

  44. S THOMAS

    I had 20p on Canterbury :)

  45. A little distraction in Europe……..Catalonia now has the date and question for its independence referendum.
    Carlos Puigdemont the president of the regional government ( Generalitat ) , announced today that the referendum, which aims to be binding and with full democratic guarantees, will take place on 1 October.
    The question……..” Do you want Catalonia to be an independent State in the form of a republic ?”
    The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy refuses to authorise any such referendum.
    Watch this space.

  46. Chris Hulme on the money on Sky TV, he talks a lot of sense.

  47. Sea change,
    “Sadly I think there are no real winners.”

    On the contrary, I think May has landed some good blows against Brexit happening.

    AR558.
    ” they have weakened her hand massively to get a good Brexit deal”
    I disagree. As mentioned above, I think there is little latitude for any ‘special’ deal. What it might limit is her latitude to control the aim of UK negotiations, such as switching to soft brexit or revoking article 50. But being nearly defeated has enormously strengthened the argument for abandoning hard Brexit.

  48. @AR558

    Rubbish. The EU negotiators couldn’t care less how big the government’s majority is or whether there is a coalition or whatever. Even if the Cons had 600 seats their position would be the same (which is: there is no good deal. Get what you’re given).

    The young I’m sure were hopeful Brexit could still be scrapped.

  49. COLIN

    Well done, your concern expressed over the last few weeks was well placed. I did not see it coming.

    “May screwed it completely. She must be on borrowed time in her own Party.”

    Indeed, sadly from my point of few as i see much to admire in her still, but i agree she is history.

  50. Labour’s social media campaign was an important factor with younger voters, and the Cons are badly behind in this area, they’re still relying mainly on traditional media. They need to get their act together or increasingly lose contact with the younger generations.

    On Brexit there really has to be an attempt at cross-party agreement – it is absurd for this much weakened government to try to impose its own ideas without wider consultation. Voters will feel ignored and take drastic revenge at the next election.

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