As usual, the final poll of the campaign (unless ICM do release updated figures) is from Ipsos MORI, who traditionally keep on polling on Wednesday evening and publish their final call in Thursday’s Evening Standard. Topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 36%(-4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 4%(+2), giving them an eight point Tory lead. Two slight changes since the last poll – MORI have expanded their turnout adjustment to include tenure and, in the same way as they have done in their final call at past general elections, they’ve reallocated people who are certain to vote but are still saying don’t know in line with their newspaper readership. Full tabs are here.

And, that’s it until 10pm, when we will get the headline call from the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll from MORI and GfK.


2,965 Responses to “Final poll – Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 44%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%”

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  1. I wonder if George Osborne might be thinking he was a bit hasty jumping ship. I can’t imagine there would be many ahead of him in the queue to replace T May at the midpoint of this five year term.

  2. @Mike N

    You were right the first time, it is the HE not GE. As in: –

    HE HE HE HE HE HE HE….

    :-)

  3. Matt – I think they used an Electoral Register from early last year for the initial Boundary Review, at the time many pointed out that it was subtle gerrymandering as it was not going to capture as many as possible and did not need to be so early.

    I hope that if the Boundary Review goes ahead that a new review takes place with the new register.

    Chances are, though, it will quietly be parked as many Tory back-bench MPs would not want to have to fight amongst themselves for fewer seats>

  4. Given the reaction from the left wingers on here, social media etc, it does make me wonder how on earth they would react if they won a majority…! I think rubbing your nose in it would be an understatement!

    DUP are getting the full both barrels on the BBCs Facebook page. All the young are suddenly experts in Northern Irish politics and are labelling them every name under the sun. I advise people to go check the comments and prepare to be shocked.

  5. @MIKE PEARCE “Charmless and Evasive.”

    I think that pretty much sums up TM during this campaign.

    Tactically she should never have called the election before the locals. She should have prepared during that month with her cabinet and then called it after the locals.

    But the reality is her coronation after the Cameron resignation has come back to bite the Tories as she was never tested in a campaign environment.

    @Trevor Warne

    I agree that it would be a nightmare to have yet another election during the Brexit negotiations. I do think TM might go over the summer after a visit from the men in gray suits so they can have a new leader in place for their party conference.

  6. @Mike

    It’s good for Osborne to get some experience outside govt and politics. He started off as a spad after university and then straight into Parliament, opposition and govt.

    Running the Evening Standard will give him a new set of skills and a new perspective. Being on television as a civilian will help him build rapport with the voters (who did not like him when he was Chancellor. And he’s young enough that he can re-enter Parliament in 2022 (or earlier if there is a by-election) and then play a part.

  7. “rich

    Bets on next GE? Last night I thought the autumn. Now I think 5 years because as I saw one commentator put it, you won’t find 2/3rds MPs voting for that anytime soon now. Very different to before.”

    May not be in October, but no way is it lasting till 2022. It will be sooner rather than later.

  8. @RICH

    You mean something like what the daily mail and co did to Corbyn two days ago?

    Or what those same papers did to Milliband before that?

  9. Keep going, Rich. Most enjoyable.

  10. Isn’t the real worry for the Tories in this rickety old minority government, propped up by the DUP (the DUP!!???), that the May who revealed herself to the world during the campaign is in fact a very mediocre, and now much diminished politician indeed, ill suited for the convoluted and hellishly difficult task of leading such an administration?

    I’m trying to think of past PMs who’ve managed to sort of pull it off. Wilson’s strengths were well suited to the wheeler-dealing and horse-trading required Feb – Oct 1974, as was fixer-in-chief, Jim Callaghan in the 1976-79 Lib/Lab Pact arrangement. Cameron’s people skills proved useful as a leader of a coalition government in 2010, but Theresa May? The brittle, shy, nervous and prickly politician who emerged over the last 5 weeks would be the last person I’d want navigating an administration that will require political and leadership skills of the very highest order.

  11. rich

    “. I advise people to go check the comments and prepare to be shocked.”

    How you spend your time is your choice rich but I’ve got better things to do than to either do that or speculate endlessly about stuff that absolutely nobody has an degree of certainty about at all.

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………

    Theresa May’s “speech” outside no. 10 was jaw droppingly weird. It seemed to suggest a complete reality bypass.

  12. @alexw,

    Ow I agree, it’s time those papers stopped with character attacks. V.poor.

    @norbold,

    Ow no, there you are, just when I thought the gloating might be coming to an end!!! lol. So let’s have your on point analysis on where we are please.

  13. Matt – I think they used an Electoral Register from early last year for the initial Boundary Review, at the time many pointed out that it was subtle g888m***ing as it was not going to capture as many as possible and did not need to be so early.

    I hope that if the Boundary Review goes ahead that a new review takes place with the new register.

    Chances are, though, it will quietly be parked as many Tory back-bench MPs would not want to have to fight amongst themselves for fewer seats.

    Stars as the word I used triggered auto-mod

  14. “alexw

    @RICH

    You mean something like what the daily mail and co did to Corbyn two days ago?

    Or what those same papers did to Milliband before that?”

    Nightmare on Kinnock Street

  15. RE: The DUP

    They are not natural really partners for the Tories beyond perhaps passing some anti-terror legislation…

    — They want more public spending, and an end to cuts
    — They want a soft border with NI and to be in the EU customs union

    They are socially conservative, rather than economically conservative. How on earth could TM sell that to her right-wing backbenchers?

    TM spoke of a ‘coalition of chaos’ but there is broader policy alignment between LAB/SNP/LD/Green/PC than between CON/DUP.

  16. @Crossbat1 “Isn’t the real worry for the Tories in this rickety old minority government, propped up by the DUP (the DUP!!???), that the May who revealed herself to the world during the campaign is in fact a very mediocre, and now much diminished politician indeed, ill suited for the convoluted and hellishly difficult task of leading such an administration?”

    Totally agree, she surely can’t last even in the medium term. Unless the Tories want to string Brexit around her shoulders, get her to sign a deal (or not) and then boot her out well ahead of the next election.

  17. @Baldbloke

    The only thing that will have an effect on the boundary review will be if it is cancelled or restarted. It goes ahead on the same electoral roll it was started on.

    I’ve wondered whether May’s cunning plan (copyright Baldrick) is to try to struggle on, drive through a lunatic Brexit, and hang on until the new boundaries come into effect.

  18. @PAUL CROFT

    CCHQ’s Maybot technicians had already programmed in an election win speech, and they simply hadn’t the time to input in a whole new set of speeches and phrases, so for we have go with his.

  19. My reflections on the campaign (now I’ve had a few hours of sleep):

    First I’m going to console myself after completely under-estimating Labour support and falling for the ICM/ComRes argument about the polls, with the fact that I predicted 68% turnout, just 1% off the final tally.

    However I will have to eat my hat because I disbelieved throughout that the youth would vote as they said they would. It now appears they’ve beaten the average with 72% turnout!

    That alone has probably largely been responsible for Labour’s successes, and proves that 1992 levels of youth turnout can be achieved (and probably consistently) if a party actually offers something distinctive and seeks to appeal to those sections of the electorate, and not just the over 40s.

    As for anyone arguing that Labour didn’t ‘win’ – that really misses the point. The goalposts were not set at overall majority for Labour, they were: (a) to overcome a massive Tory lead in the polls, (b) initially just to hold on to as many seats as possible (200 was touted), and (c) to attempt to climb back to the 30% share of the vote held by EdM.

    Labour absolutely smashed those 3 aims, indisputably, ergo they ‘won’ this election. Labour’s share of the vote under Corbyn has increased by more than any Labour leader has managed to achieve since 1945 – better than Blair even. In military parlance, Corbyn didn’t achieve a decisive victory, but he has won a ‘strategic victory’.

    Conversely, against all their stated aims and objectives, the Tories, and particularly TM, were humiliated. From that perspective it’s one of the most embarrassing and entirely unnecessary losses they’ve subjected themselves to in recent memory.

    They were wrong-footed on practically every level in the campaign. Their manifesto was a disaster, their soundbites were laughable (who could listen to ‘strong and stable’ spouted again without thinking of that audience in the Paxman debate), and their overall campaign narrative weak.

    Meanwhile the constant drone of personal attacks against Corbyn and his team, from CCHQ and in the Tory-leaning press, began to sound preposterous and had seemingly zero traction with the undecided public. In the final analysis I suspect they probably repulsed a lot of people, especially after Corbyn’s debate performances showed him to be a reasonable and decent bloke, and thus backfired.

    And of course while they were focused on personal attacks, they ignored the most important issues for the public – policy matters and Brexit – and thus allowed Labour to dominate the domestic policy debate and play to their historical strengths – at will. I suspect TM’s advisors will be packing their bags as we speak.

    And finally, I did mention (half-jokingly, and entirely selfishly) that an unstable hung parliament would be the best outcome because it means another election will almost certainly happen sooner rather than later! Let’s hope it turns out to be as dramatic as this one :-)

  20. “No-one’s quite sure what happened or how, but May is now staggering away from the pram, still standing but with a black eye for her efforts.”

    ———–

    What happen is that if you don’t subscribe to the idea the state should provide much, then gradually you run out of ideas. Initially you can sell stuff off cheap, utility shares, council houses, but that gradually runs out of gas. The LibDems masked the lack in coalition, offering a few ideas themselves, but once they had gone, there was a policy vacuum that baffled even Tory supporters. But if you don’t have the mindset of the state providing stuff the private sector isn’t good at providing, you’ll prolly mostly come up with more cuts.

  21. Interesting comment from a UKIP voter on BBC. He didn’t have a UKIP candidate to vote for so leant his vote to the Conservatives.

    He described it that he passed the ball to Teresa May in the penalty area and she blazed it over the bar. He went on to say he wouldn’t lend it her again.

    I wonder how typical of UKIP to Conservative voters that is. Will they still keep those votes going forward?

    I wonder what an opinion poll would say if you asked the question “If there was a general election tomorrow – who would you vote for”
    Probably not 43.4 to 40.0?!

  22. @sssimon,

    Well put, I couldn’t agree more on just about every level, although I do wonder if 2/3rds of MPs will vote for another election anytime soon.

  23. Brexit will break her. If she takes a soft line, half her party will gun her down. If she goes hard, the opposition and DUP will gun her down. And the opposition will make her negotiations hell. She thought she could over-ride them, use her extra MPs as lobby fodder and conduct the negs as she/davis wished. She won’t be able to because the EU will leak discussions from both sides. They love transparency and keeping all those member countries quiet is impossible. Cue mass protests in and out of the commons.

  24. sssimon

    [scuse me stutter]

    A very nice post and definitely accurate.

  25. The DUP voting through further cuts to police, nhs and education funding; is that political suicide and is it likely?

  26. I was thinking last night an election by the end of the year but in the cold light of day I think it will happen once Brexit has been signed off so Summer 2019.

  27. Whew, what a result. That’s what the Tories get for Hubris.

    I think May is a competent minister, but deeply unsuited to the role of PM. You can run the home office as a closed shop with a couple of close advisers, but it just doesn’t work in the top job. The knives were being sharpened right from the manifesto release, but it’s hard to see what happens now. The Tories aren’t exactly known for their sentimentality, but the job is a proper poisoned chalice in these circumstances. They might let TM get through the Brexit process (it’s not like she’ll be in charge of negotiations, especially not now), and then push her under the bus.

    I think the likelihood of another election is overstated anyway. 318 is enough to manage minority government on, even if they do have to make a few compromises. It’s pretty much impossible for the opposition parties to cobble together the numbers to win a vote of no confidence or defeat a queen’s speech. The tories are damaged and Corbyn is riding high, they can’t take the risk of trying to call an election themselves, they’ll need to bide their time for at least a little while. Brexit is their big challenge now.

  28. 7 Bye-elections to get DUP+Tories below 322 will take over 2 years at least if all go to an opposition party.

    In essence then we may be stuck with this arrangement through the negotiations with the Eu27.

    I think the suggestion put forward by many, including Labour, that a transitional arrangement in 2019 (agreed by end of 2018) will be reached is imo even more likely than it was before.

    Another GE perhaps in spring/early summer of 2019 after the transitional agreement has been approved by EU and UK parliaments makes sense so a new UK Government can negotiate with a proper mandate (hopefully)

  29. Anthony

    If you get to read this can you advise of any reasons why the the DUP would not seek talks with Labour also in order to judge – mostly on brexit/borders I imagine – which is the best course for them?

    Why are the Tories seemingly the only game in town?

  30. @SSSIMON

    Very good analysis I think. The only point I would argue with is that it was a victory for Labour. Relatively speaking yes, in that the initial expectation was so low, but that was still an astonishing number of votes for a Conservative Party with such a stink around it by the end of the campaign. I think a “progressive coalition” was certainly achievable once the manifesto battle kicked in, and I’m disappointed at falling short. I placed six bets two weeks ago, five of which came in including hung parliament and total numbers of seats for Labour/Tory. The one bet I lost was JC as next Prime Minister. Now THAT would have been a victory.

  31. @JimJam

    I’m wondering if the “transitional arrangement” will simply be an extension of UK’s membership of the EU. If the May administrattion falls to bits before an agreement is finalised, an incoming government with different priorities will have very little choice but to seek a stay of execution.

    The extent of May’s arrogance is shown by her decision to go for the election *after* Article 15. The possibility of defeat plainly never occurred.

  32. PS: my favourite quote of the campaign belongs to Joseph1832:

    “It’s as if Jeremy Corbyn took a crash course in how to look Prime Ministerial. While Theresa May just took a crash course.”

    ;-)

  33. @Mike

    “The one bet I lost was JC as next Prime Minister.”

    Was that PM after the election, or just next PM after May? Because the latter is still possible.

  34. When’s the next opinion poll out?

  35. @ Rich – you’re probably right about that, TBH. I can only see that changing if things go badly with the DUP or Brexit negotiations start to get difficult. Both of which are very possible.

  36. By the way those of you who are Conservative leaners on this site should check out Lynton Crosbies public track record, as he quit the Canadian election in 2015 mid-stream, and has a very spotty record of electoral wins.

    He likes to go for the kill, such as running the anti-muslim card up the poll in Canada, which caused a very, very angry Justin Trudeau, to explode in the Quebec TV debate and remind everybody that a Canadian was a Canadian, and that we would not have two classes of Canadian citizens if he were Prime Minister.

    If memory serves me well Mr Crosby left the campaign shortly after that, going on to advise, I believe, the Premier of Western Australia to make a preference deal in 2017 with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, the equivalent of UKIP and the French National Front.

    That resulted in Labour gaining the largest majority in Western Australian electoral history, so on the other hand I hope the UK Conservatives keep hiring him as their top election advisor.

  37. About the DUP and their support for the government (I take it that it is “C&S” not full coalition), I think their situation is not the same as the LD’s. ie once the arrangement is finished, I don’t think they will lose 75% of their seats.

    As regards Sinn Fein: I am wondering if their abstention policy is wise in the circumstances. If they don’t want Brexit, there’s only one way to stop it and that’s to vote against it in parliament. Or are they hoping that Brexit will lead to a united Ireland? Not sure about that.

  38. @ ANDREW MYERS

    The ride never ends!

  39. ROBIN

    That’s a very good point, as I had assumed my bet was for after this election, but as TM never actually stopped being PM, that bet might indeed still be open.

  40. @ Paul Croft

    The IRA link with all three main Labour politicians blocks any chance of a deal with the DUP. Arlene Phillips would be hung, drawn and quartered by her party if she even considered it.

  41. @Bantams,

    100%.

  42. bantams

    Of course. [Been a long night.]

  43. Most of Theresa Mays manifesto will be carried out. The DUP will support it mainly because education (school meals) , health & care (dementia tax) are devolved issues and what Theresa May was offering basically only applied to England anyway.

    We will have a very very hard BREXIT now – definately no deal. The EU will assess the UK as weak, not be willing to make concessions so we will leave, March 2019, with no deal (probably sooner).

    May will remain as PM until after BREXIT and step down. I suspect that she will step down as Tory leader though a lot earlier -possibly within weeks.

    Nuttall has gone, I don’t think Nicola Sturgeon and Leanne Wood are going to be that far behind him either (Sturgeon has had an absolute disaster – far worse than May’s party-wise), not to mention the head of NI parties Alliance, UUP, and SDLP. Farron remaining in post for the Lib Dems I would rate as no more than 50/50.

    As for Labour, unfortunately they have shown that even when they pull 40% of the vote on a far bigger turnout, they still cannot beat a shambolic Tory party. They are truly between a rock and a hard place. They only got where they did yesterday because of the far-Left and Momentum. If they try to move closer to the middle they will lose that new support.

  44. Mind you, they could get ole Ken to act as peace-maker………

  45. I think the Tories will have potential byelection losses at the back of their minds so this fixed 5 year term won’t last anything like 5 years.

  46. I never thought I would hear myself say this but I have to take my hat off to Jeremy Corbyn. What tenacity in the face of adversity. I have had a tough week in my own busienss this week but he has really inspired me.

    As for the result. Obviously hugely disappointing, but not surprising to us on this side, but no-one can say it was undeserved. The Tories campaign was breathtakingly dreadful. An unmitigated disaster. I hope the party can learn from this and make a better job next time.

    I do fear for politics in this country though. It does seem to have become a zero-sum game with no winners, only losers and that was borne out by the results last night. I doubt there are many happy people today, certainly not on this side. I hope it all finds a more reasonable centre position in the future.

    To end on a positive though, I have thoroughly enjoyed taking part in this forum over the last few weeks and have respected the civility (by and large) between those on opposing sides, which is how politics should be. I have made a pledge to myself not to “fade away” but to continue to visit on a regular basis. A million thanks Anthony for making all of this possible in the last few weeks (and years). YOur hard work is appreciated.

  47. I expect I’ll get pilloried for this, but I wonder if JC has shot his bolt, he had a chance and blew it. Next time he plays pork barrel politics perhaps people will remember last night……’ you told us, if we voted for you, no tuition fees, money tree ‘ What did we get ? 5 more years of Tory rule.
    Just a thought. ;-)

  48. The DUP were endorsed and supported by the UDA/UVF for this election and its members canvassed and worked or DUP candidates. The UUP refused any paramilitary endorsement as did Jeffrey Donaldson from the DUP but all others remaid content with the support. After weeks of attacking Corbyn over his alleged links to the IRA will the Tories and the press now be happy with to hold the DUP to the same level of scruinity?.

    While many polls were incorrect it is worth noting that bookmakers odds were all over the place as well. 1/80 for the Tories in Cantebury? 2/11 for an overall majority last night at 9.59pm? 26 million alone was wagered on this last bet alone on betfair. Even at that tome tens of thousands were being bet. Lesson is you cannot rely on bookies odds to guess the destination of a seat.

  49. I don’t know if anyone has linked to this interesting article by Lord Ashcroft on his own “exit poll”
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/result-happen-post-vote-survey/

    No mention of where his MRP model went so wrong though!

  50. @ANDREW

    Yes, we need more elections to discuss, so what is up next?

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