As usual, the final poll of the campaign (unless ICM do release updated figures) is from Ipsos MORI, who traditionally keep on polling on Wednesday evening and publish their final call in Thursday’s Evening Standard. Topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 36%(-4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 4%(+2), giving them an eight point Tory lead. Two slight changes since the last poll – MORI have expanded their turnout adjustment to include tenure and, in the same way as they have done in their final call at past general elections, they’ve reallocated people who are certain to vote but are still saying don’t know in line with their newspaper readership. Full tabs are here.

And, that’s it until 10pm, when we will get the headline call from the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll from MORI and GfK.


2,965 Responses to “Final poll – Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 44%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%”

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  1. The real power of the YG model isn’t just that it got the result largely right, but that it correctly identified which seats were and were not in play, whereas UNS badly failed. Some were scoffing at some rather more surprising predictions, and although we’ve had fund with DrMibbles prediction of Canterbury it’s the Kensington result (irrespective of which way further recounts go) that stands out, together with e.g. identifying the threat to Amber Rudd.

    It is plainly a good enough model to inform seat targetting, and (I’m guessing) to identify demographic subgroups who aren’t performing well for a particular party but who might swing particular marginals.

    Although the final model got the margin of the popular vote slightly wrong, this was perhaps because youth turnout was even higher than the most optimistic estimates?

    Wondering what Ashcroft did wrong.

  2. Apparently one of the conditions of the coalition is that May would have to join the march on the 12th of July.

  3. @Edge of Reason

    Yes, it was surreal, there should have been some acknowledgment. TM appears to lack emotional intelligence.

    I don’t think the next Tory Leader will be avoiding the Leaders debate either.

  4. @robin,

    That yougov model was sensational. It’s a shame they somehow went for the reversion on the final poll as it just takes the shine off their predictions.

  5. You’d have thought TM should have learnt from watching Scooby Doo.

    “I had the perfect plan, and it would have worked if it wasn’t for those pesky kids”

  6. @ Candy.
    Thank you.

  7. @JONM

    And this is the sort of thing being posted on ConHome about them.

    “I suspect the really bad news which will emerge from analysis is that a couple of million millennials have finally worked out how to vote. Given that they imagine Corbyn to be The Messiah and that neither he nor they are going to go away in the foreseeable future, this malevolent genie isn’t going to be popped back into the bottle.”

    A lot of my conservative voting elders disgust me, they truly do.

  8. FRED

    Your tone is wrong for this place. Mostly we are polite on here.
    Other political sites are available for the sort of comments you are making.

  9. One of the wonderful things was the voting by the youth, who are much derided by the old. Perhaps now, they will insult them for voting red! Interesting point from beeb about how the expansion of higher education is driving larger numbers of left leaners. That will continue. Eventually, the blue rinse will be gone and the left leaners will have more say. Progressive trends.

  10. I wonder if this result will have any impact on the 2018 boundary review.

  11. @Rich

    “This might be the wake up call the Cons need to listen more broadly”

    No sign of that in May’s “Nothing Has Changed” statement. Quite amazing. The younger vote has issued a bloody nose, and the Tory reaction is to behave as if nothing has happened. How can that do anything but worsen Tory VI in that half of the population? Meanwhile, the half that votes Tory continues to die at the rate of 0.5M per year.

  12. I think a massive hats off to Survation and YouGov are needed here.. They were pretty much correct all along! Whether that’s through luck more than judgement, but doesn’t that now make 2 Survation polls in a row?

    The next election is going to be a good one.. It’s going to be make or break for them all! It’s all to play for all around.

    Well done to DRMibbles, I’m glad I never shot you down – you seemed to be quite well informed throughout.. :)

  13. @Alexw,

    It may be you are right that they keep voting until they get a chance at a left wing Govt? Only after they see it in action can they really make a balanced judgement as until then, it’s probably a utopian vision vs Cons austerity etc…

  14. Absolutely shattered here!

    Incredible result, had a feeling the Tories would lose their OM the last few weeks, it didn’t go as well as I had hoped but still a decent result for Labour considering where they started the campaign.

    May looks doomed, she is now at the mercy of her backbenchers and the DUP. I give her 6 months max

  15. bet old cameron wishes he hadnt handed his notice in. it could have been his second term!

  16. @Shelts, and then the tory leadership merry go round starts up again and they elect a new leader with no legitimacy and the tories take us back to another election………..Gawd, where’s the CERTAINTY she speaks of then?

  17. Facebook live video of Theresa May’s video is going down like a lead balloon. Just a see of angry faces and comments of disgust at allying with the DUP

  18. *sea of

  19. @Robin,

    Well yes quite, that is worrying..

  20. If May attempts to stay in power, propped up by the DUP, who many consider to be frighteningly right wing (they are accused of being homophobic, anti-abortion, climate-change deniers), I expect there will be some degree of civil unrest, or at least mass-participation protest marches on a scale not seen for many years.

  21. what larks!

    but when the euphoria of labour dies down there is a stark reality.It was a defeat. Not as bad as it could have been but still a defeat. Labour are still miles away from forming an administration. They have laid some useful foundations down for the next campaign but in many ways they will not be so lucky the next time:

    1. The government might run a campaign;

    2. they will be fighting a new leader;

    3. they have revealed their policies;

    4. The brexit negotiations might have restored some support for the government

    5. JC will not be underestimated

    The enthused youth might have to be thrown something on tuition fees to cool them down but all in all the next election will be quite different

  22. @Neil,

    There would probably be that if Cons had a landslide! It’s the nature of the left / activism etc.

  23. @S Thomas,

    Agree with you. (Providing as I discussed with @robin, the Cons listen & learn).

  24. Poor TM. Becoming PM was her ambition but she quickly discovered that she is the captive of Paul Dacre, Rupert Murdoch and the hard Brexiteers in her party.

    So she called a GE to escape their bonds. And now finds she is bound even more tightly by her captors.

    Oh dear, TM. You won’t be allowed so much ‘freedom’ again will you.

    Now you have to continue leading the Tory party and suffer endless humiliation. The first PMQs will be a challenge.

  25. @RICH

    Here’s the thing, to anyone who understands macroeconomics austerity is an utterly ridiculous concept. All that is happening is the tory gov is pushing off the debt onto the household sector via the UK housing bubble.

    Corbyn is 100% spot on on this. As long as the UK runs a trade deficit the overall UK debt load will rise. The only choice gov has is where that debt ends up. I’d rather the gov take it on and use the funds it represents to invest into our economy so that we might actually have a chance of fixing our trade deficit, rather than pretending household economics applies when it doesn’t, and instead loading up the younger generations with ever more debt via pumping up house prices.

  26. Quite chuffed with my prediction. Think I had

    Con 315
    Lab 251
    LD 9
    PC 4

    Overestimated SNP but I suspect most did.

  27. Poor TM. Becoming PM was her ambition but she quickly discovered that she is the captive of Paul Dacre, Rupert Murdoch and the hard Brexiteers in her party.

    So she called a GE to escape their bonds. And now finds she is bound even more tightly by her captors.

    Oh dear, TM. You won’t be allowed so much ‘freedom’ again will you.

    Now you have to continue leading the Tory party and suffer endless humiliation. The first confrontation with JC will be a challenge.

  28. Fitst off hats off to Dr Mibbles. Desd chuffed for you. I hope all the know it alls who slagged you have now apologised.
    Joint first place has to be Rudyard who remained incredibly positive in the dark polling days in the early part of the campaign. My son was just the same and knew Labour would do so much better based upon all the social media feedback.

    Two losers on here. S Phillips with his embarrassing gloating on here and Phil White for his appalling posts last Saturday. Kudos to a number of Tory posters on here for their magnanimity overnight.

    The biggest winner is Jeremy Corbyn. We were all led to believe he was useless and that Labour offered no opposition. The media wil! now have to afford him a damn sight more respect from now on.
    The biggest loser being May for running the worst campaign I can ever recall. Constantly defensive and unwilling to debate with the electorate. Charmless and evasive.

    The other losers include Blair and much of the Parliamentary Labour party for the back stabbing of their leader

    The biggest losers though were the print media. Murdoch,Dacre etc are dinosaurs overtaken by social media. They are no longer influential to the under 50’s.

    The other big winners were our youth who voted in huge numbers and ensured May failed to receive the majority.

    One other winner. Ruth Davidson on a stunning night for the Tories in Scotland. She has saved May for now.

  29. There are now so many uncertainties such as Sinn Fein`s behaviour and the Ireland internal border, and Tory attitudes to Theresa May. But also there are some definite conclusions

    The clear winners have been:

    John Curtice and the Exit Poll planners
    YouGov and Survation
    Soft Brexiteers and Remainers.

    The clear losers are:

    The old-fashioned polling companies who assumed 2015 behaviour
    Hard Brexiteers
    Theresa May, whose talents didn`t fit leading a very divided party
    The right-wing newspapers who smeared nastily.

    I also admit to not realising a major shift from LibDems to SCon was occurring in the West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine constituency. Votes of 16500-19300 LDems in 3 GEs were reduced to 4400. I should have interpreted the lack of LibDem mailings and placards better, and spotted that SCon would gain 11000 votes on 2010.

    The YouGov maps gave good warning of the major regional shifts within Scotland, with several correct predictions of LibDem and Tory gains and a string of Glasgow seats shown as being close for Labour at the start of the week.

    John Curtice I thought was brilliant, appearing from the gods in that BBC studio and holding his nerve against the main-desk pollster and the disbelieving politicians. I once served on one of John`s focus groups, and saw his ability to disentangle real facts from a maze of swirling less-important evidence.

    Hopefully we will have similar talent, perhaps Vince Cable, to bind the different political leaders into taking a sensible very soft approach to Brexit, and nudging the Tories into less austerity and greater taxation.

  30. I forgot to mention the pollsters. A stunning success for Survation who unlike YouGov had the bottle to stand by their polling. YouGov did so much top quality work but blew it with that daft Wednesday night poll. Such a shame because they nailed it.

    As for ICM and ComRes…they failed spectacularly

  31. Sorry I mean S Thomas

  32. Bets on the next GE chaps? I’d say by November.

  33. Comment from a Northern Ireland person on reddit: “Tories granted majority by NI unionists, and further aided by SF abstentionism.”

    They’re now debating whether they should only vote SF for Stormont and vote SDLP for the Commons/are hotly arguing about the wisdom of electing parties that don’t take their seats and thus don’t really do the job of representing voters.

    There is no doubt that Mrs May is in power due to a combination of NI and Scotland.

  34. @S THOMAS

    You are dreaming.

    Brexit is a ball and chain for whoever has to deal with it. I’m glad its not labour.

    The under 40’s vote will be higher than ever next time around and they will all vote labour again. They are now energized and activated and having seen the effect they can have I very much doubt they will be going back to sleep. Indeed, you can 100% bet labour from here on in are going to continually tailor their manifesto to have under 45’s friendly pledges, to keep them engaged and voting. They are going be a core voting block for labour for decades to come, and labour are not going to be so stupid so as to throw that away.

  35. Bets on next GE? Last night I thought the autumn. Now I think 5 years because as I saw one commentator put it, you won’t find 2/3rds MPs voting for that anytime soon now. Very different to before.

  36. Quite a lot of straw clutching from the Tory posters on here I see.

  37. Well, I’ve just surfaced after a long night.

    Hats off to Yougov and Dr Mibbles, I took note late on and put some bets on various constituncies so the silver lining is I’m quids in!

    We must remember, though Labour performed admirably, they didn’t win the election so any talk about civil unrest and the like will be counter productive as all it will do is lose a big chunk of voters just gained.

  38. Good afternoon all from a future looks a little brighter Peoples Socialist Republic of London

    Stayed up to just after six when hung parliament became official

    DrMibbles – pollster genius. Well done for having the guts for sticking with what the data was showing and analysing it correctly and not playing it safe. Hope you enjoy your winning.

    Nice to see that moderate Labour supporters obvs didn’t desert the party in droves and Tom Watson comfortably kept his seat.

    Glad for our democracy that the youngsters came out to vote and made a difference.

    Objectively this is probably the best result for Labour. The Tories have sort out the mess, that lets face it they got us into with Brexit, while Labour sits poised to win the election with a popular leader, united party and popular policies.

    Politics just got really interesting.

  39. The DUP coalition really doesn’t seem a good idea electorally. If the Conservatives bring up Corbyn’s links to Hamas etc, he will now be able to point out that May’s government is dependent for its existence upon people like this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Resistance

  40. @Philottes,

    I don’t think so. Most Con posters have conceded it was a poor campaign, dreadful manifesto, and subsequently poor result, yet it’s still outside the realms of a workable Corbyn left wing alliance. I think these are fair comments. I don’t see the Cons having this bad campaign next time, whenever that is.

  41. Regarding the Boundary Review if more people are registering to vote in more Labour type seats does this Help Labour with the seat distribution after the boundary review?

  42. Rich
    hahahaha

    It’s amusing to see you so assertive about everything even though your predictions about the HE were wildly adrift from reality.

  43. @Candy, never understood anyone voting SF at GEs. You can only really change from within and get indy that way. They should be pressured to attend, in the interests of their community so that the protestants and DUP don’t have it all their own way. If you’ve put down the gun and chosen democracy, you must take up your seats and not sit on the fence.

  44. GE not HE

  45. @MACTAVISH

    I think oppositions are well within the right to troll the governing party a bit. But honestly the speed at which May has gone through today suggests she wants to RUN as fast as possible away from this whole debacle and ‘get back to normal’.

    I can’t see how she remains leader very long as frankly the DUP can use this weakness to get even greater concessions. I mean they couldn’t even pass a lot of legislation before.

    The fact the DUP seem ignorant of any deal just highlights that May is once again trying to shape reality to fit her fiction.

  46. @ FRED – a 2017 GE is 1-2 (ie only around 33%).
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132100025

    EU27 all out saying we need to get on with Brexit. Summer recess + a new campaign period takes us to mid-Oct earliest.

    The Brexit clock is ticking away.

    We simply do not have time for another GE. Even if we did LAB on 262 is 61 short of a technical majority (26 short if you they do a coalition/deal with SNP) and given the historic issues of LAB whip they would want a decent cushion above that to provide anything stable.

    May made the mess, she will hopefully just get the succession process smoothed out and exit but CON+DUP (+hopefully a few amenable LAB to shore up the vote occasionally) have to negotiate Brexit – Mar’19 is not far away and the negotiations will not be easy (unless we just cave in on everything and pay 100bn to end up with a worse deal than we had before 23Jun16)

    LAB will probably win most seats in the next GE and form some kind of government but the last thing the country needs now is a further delay on Brexit and another divisive vote that might well end up as messy as the one we’ve just had.

    Anyway, time for bed I think.

  47. @Mike,

    Well if you feel the need to gloat (haha etc?) then fine, go for it, and yes my 50 seat majority was well out, but Corbyn hasn’t won and he can’t get anywhere near his manifesto, as we all know.

    What has happened is Corbyn has won a moral victory, and given a platform for left wing Lab to continue in the current direction. Maybe 2022 is when it breaks through with a majority, who knows. Lots can change…

  48. So many certainties on here about what will happen next time, from both sides of the political divide.

    Have you learnt nothing? Predicting the future is a mug’s game, just ask the pollsters.

  49. Fraser, she’s pompous, arrogant and is trying to stonewall this defeat out. She doesn’t even talk to her cabinet; reminds me of Blair, what happened to him!?!

  50. May is pretending that nothing has changed. Incredible

    I can’t see the Tories benefitting from pushing yet another election before the year is out. All Labour need to do is sit back and watch the upcoming mess unfold

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