As usual, the final poll of the campaign (unless ICM do release updated figures) is from Ipsos MORI, who traditionally keep on polling on Wednesday evening and publish their final call in Thursday’s Evening Standard. Topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 36%(-4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 4%(+2), giving them an eight point Tory lead. Two slight changes since the last poll – MORI have expanded their turnout adjustment to include tenure and, in the same way as they have done in their final call at past general elections, they’ve reallocated people who are certain to vote but are still saying don’t know in line with their newspaper readership. Full tabs are here.

And, that’s it until 10pm, when we will get the headline call from the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll from MORI and GfK.


2,965 Responses to “Final poll – Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 44%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%”

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  1. Last minute Labour slump? I wish they’d make adjustments before the final poll!

  2. AW, thanks for all the polls and updates, you must be very busy with day to day work so its much appreciated…

  3. I think they are well out. Tory majority of at least 125

  4. I do wish polling organisations wouldn’t tinker with their methods in the middle of an election campaign, and especially for the final call! It makes it much harder to distinguish any trends.

  5. BTW I’ll be going through the last thread and collating predictions shortly – I’m not ignoring anyone.

    But right now I’m off to vote! (and the sun is just trying to crack through here in Chelsea – good omen?) :-)

  6. Is the YouGov model going to be updated with yesterday’s interviews?

  7. looks like a degree of “herding” now,with the vast majority giving tory 7-10 lead,so either the “herd are going to look pretty daft or the likes of survation will or they could all look daft

  8. @IMPERIUM3

    Yes I agree. But as they supply the underlying data I guess that it is possible for a data analyst to start with the base data and apply their own preferred fiddle factors (aka methods)!

  9. @Imperium3

    Agreed, the final interpretations are nearly worthless – we don’t even know who’s judgement, with what rationale, made them choose specific methodologies. All we know is that they all think that people are intending to vote Conservative, but that Labour could have also been their intention had they modelled it differently. If they then tinker further, then what does it show-someone at Mori thought that they had got their model before wrong? Why?

    I have to agree, nearly all the pollsters are covering themselves in muck this time – pick a model and stick with it. Simples! Otherwise, make your massive MOEs clear. At least YouGov sort of did that with their MRP (but not in the headline figures).

    It’s been a good forum to chat, but the paucity of raw data, and vagueness of the regional and national polls, has been exeptionally disappointing.

  10. Sssimon,
    I didn’t tag you in, when I posted my prediction, so if you’re searching your username you’ll prob miss it. Jsyk.

  11. @Martin L

    True, underlying data is supplied, but rarely the sampling methods. Some of them don’t seem to weight the samples at all (until the final stage), whilst others weight the samples. I always thought good polling required a good sampling methodology?

  12. So, the poll of polls is at about an 8% lead for TM. That’s not so different from 2015.

    If the polls have it right this time, it should be an interesting evening.

  13. Can I join in the prediction game? I posted on the previous thread but I guess it might be missed.

    Prediction (share/seats)

    CON 45% / 361
    LAB 35% / 214
    LD 8% / 7
    UKIP 3% / 0
    GRN 2% / 1
    SNP 4% / 46
    Plus 18 seats in NI

    CON majority of 72

  14. I am going to do something incredible and give drmibbles some good news.

    Just voted and the car park was packed and they said really busy.

  15. If you posted in the other thread I’ll find it. I’ll put up a list later for peeps to check.

  16. (posting in new thread)

    More reports of higher youth turnout coming in via twitter. This time in Tamworth and Canterbury. Both CON seats but suggests higher youth turnout not limited to LAB areas. Canterbury is modelled by YouGov to potentially flip to LAB (due to high numbers of students I imagine, there are two large universities there).

    It’s just anecdotal but there is definitely a trend.

  17. Confirms my earlier prediction of 43-36 with the Conservatives getting a little over 350 seats and Labour a little over 220.

  18. DrMibbles

    If Canterbury doesn’t flip I will hunt you down…. Only joking

    My dream scenario, Canterbury flips but cons get 50+ maj. New guitar territory.

  19. Canterbury will be close I think due to 20,000 students. I give it a 50/50 chance.

  20. Long time lurker, first time poster here.

    Been enjoying reading these threads and the ups and downs of the last few weeks. Even if it did descend into some (a lot) of partisan views at times, it’s been interesting to read.

    Whatever happens, great website Admin and all of you contributors too.

    I will echo the view that the pollsters really haven’t covered themselves with glory this time (or for quite a while). The lack of conviction to sticking with their methodology is a shame, if not surprising.

    @ SSSimon, If I’m allowed to join the predictions:

    Seats
    CON 348 (44%)
    LAB 224 (37%)
    SNP 50
    LD 6
    GREEN 1
    UKIP 0
    OTHERS 21

    Con Majority 46

    Turnout 72.1%

  21. Changes to methodology makes these polls impossible to compare. All the changes seem to be heading in 1 direction. Is there any poll that didn’t change their methods after the election was called ?

  22. My daughter just showed me her Facebook timeline and I was amazed at the number of young people who have either already voted or are going to. This ties in with what I saw myself about an hour ago when I went to vote. Something I have never seen before. I’m in a constituency with a 6,000 Tory majority

    All anecdotal, of course…

  23. Young friends of mine who I have never known to be politically engaged, or post politically, are posting on facebook encouraging people to get out and vote Labour.

    All anecodotal of course, but something is in the air…

  24. Re student vote on which there appears to be a bit of an obsession from one enthusiastic contributor…many students will have finished their exams and headed home.

    Anecdote alert…my daughter (and all her first year friends) were registered at their halls in Leeds but aren’t there any more. No mention of organising a postal vote.

    She voted this morning in Tunbridge Wells and you see a surge there, Corbyn has a landslide :-)

  25. I thought that given the lack of evidence for late swing, Mori would have a similar result to last week. And of course it’s within MoE, but the most likely culprit for the increased Con lead is the methodological changes they’ve made . They ought to have at least told us what the lead would have been without the changes so we could do a direct compare.

  26. It seems to me it was always over before it began – and the polls as they close confirm the sort of wipe-out for Labour that made Mrs May’s call hardly a gamble in any conventional sense.

  27. I feel my £20 bet on 70% turnout might be doable.

  28. On the question of turnout and enthusiasm..

    My peer group online and off is generally Labour voting and I’m in a labour safe seat so ive nothing to note about how people outside that “echo chamber” feel or vote, but as a casual observation the intensity of postings on this election has been far higher than I recall noticing in previous elections..my newsfeed has been awash with anti-tory, pro labour posts and pleas for weeks, with a real passion behind most of them. That may say something about enthusiasm and determination to vote. Whether it adds or detracts most of the people I know are in their 30s and 40s rather than “youth”.

    Attitudes to, and voting record on, Brexit, have no apparent relation to the issue at all from what I can observe..with people I suspected to be Tories from their past nationalistic, anti EU postings, being – to my great surprise – the most vehement and obsessive cheerleaders for voting Labour.

    Anecdote or not, it means I remain perplexed by the constant assumption on here and by pollsters that “traditional labour” voters who voted Brexit will be less likely to vote for the Labour party in the general election. It makes no logical sense and the personal evidence I can see seems to contradict it completely.

    On turnout, my local polling station is generally empty when I go, but this morning was relatively brisk,though no obvious “youth” in attendance.

  29. What were the LAB/CON raw voting intention figures from Ipsos MORI poll

  30. Anecdotal evidence is the worst evidence. But it’s nice if more youngsters are taking part.

  31. Rich

    I had £50 own money and £50 free bet at 9/1 on over 70%

    Who Knows….

  32. I wonder if this is the first election of modern times with both and ABT and an ABL vote?

    Certainly from anecdotes, some life long labour are holding their noses and voting tory for the first time ever.

    My gut tells me that the youth vote will increase but not by enough to make a huge difference where it counts.

    I also wonder how many times will blue shoot through between red and orange ? I certainly think that is a possibility in Bath, but would make orange favorite. Can’t understand why labour would try to take votes from the libdems here.

  33. So my daughter has just got home from school in the rain and has just seen Vernon Coaker (Lab Gedling) knocking on doors trying to get his vote out.

    I wonder if he is a bit worried
    Ashcroft has Gedling Con 43 Lab 43 (on 2015 t/o); 42 44 (on 2016) and 43 44 (on 2017 self report)

  34. “Certainly from anecdotes, some life long labour are holding their noses and voting tory for the first time ever.”

    People who say that kind of thing – in either direction – are generally telling porkies about how they normally vote.

  35. Not the ones I know, they were labour members. Left when JC was leader and joined UKIP (i don’t get that really) . To them everything else is secondary to BREXIT.

    The other 2 I know both work in defence and don’t believe the Trident pledge in the manifesto.

    I tend to take people I know at face value.

  36. @Ian,

    Either way it was a value bet. I reckon 67%-72% is likely turnout. It really was way busier than last election and similar to the EU referendum feel.

    Rich

  37. Taking the Ipsos-Mori poll, as its in the middle of the pack:

    Their tables show a Con lead in England of 11%, this compares to a 9% lead in 2015. The Ldems poll roughly the same as the last election in England (8%).

    If this is right, and if there is uniform swing across England, there are very few seat changes (less than 5).

    Two big ‘if’s there though.

  38. @ SSSIMON

    I posted my prediction in the other thread at about 2am last night. Hope you find it. Thanks!

  39. Well, if turns out there it’s a good turnout that is a turn up for democracy.

    I’m still thinking that this high turnout could indicate a large Tory vote.

    Like Crossbat11 I fear the worst but hope for the best.

  40. I can report that the polling booths in Chelsea were deserted, and the staff reported considerable ennui.

    Greg Hands will clearly be celebrating another landslide tonight ;-)

  41. @Mike,

    My seat has a 19k Tory majority. So where I am it will be a high tory vote. So high Tory vote plus high youth vote equals fsif chance of breaking 70% barrier..

    Am very confident of over 67%

  42. Very anecdotal this but in 2015 my Facebook feed was very similar to now, as was it before the EU referendum. If you stick your head up and post something vaguely Tory it’s like they’ve signed some sort of pledge to shout down everything. It does seem harsher this time though, to the point that I won’t post anything.

  43. @ MAGOSH

    LAB/CON by age bucket in last YouGov poll

    18-24 62/18
    25-49 42/35 (quite a change, no?!)
    50-64 28/47 (bigger change as starting to include people old enough to remember the medicine required to fix the last Union led Socialism in UK)
    65+ 23/56

    However, my main point is best expressed by Matt Singh in the FT today:
    “The fundamental problem is that polls oversample the kind of people that like being polled.”

    Busy people are…. errrr…. busy… they don’t have the time (nor possibly interest) to complete polls. Matt Singh’s piece in the FT is well worth a read. His analysis of the “shy tory” affect is also well worth a read.

    Of course many people stick with LAB for life, you see that in the VI versus 2015 elections. The two issues are:
    1/ Are polls capturing a representative sample?
    2/ Will turnout by demographic out-weigh the drift to the right (a well accepted aggregate phenomena that will obviously have exceptions) and tip enough seats LAB (big queues at specific polling stations near Universities will be great for increasing a LAB majority in seats they already hold and maybe take a few from LDEM – how many from CON seats?)

  44. SSSimon
    hmmm, shy Tories in Chelsea can’t get to the station? Is this typical of other GEs there?

  45. Shy tories?? over estimate of populist labour vote?? Labour wins more votes in the south but doesn’t convert to seats and Tories take midlands and north east seats with better votes conversion. Only a thought. Scotland returns more Tory Mp’s and last labour seat in scotland could go.

    prediction

    conservative 45% 370 seats
    Labour 32% 212 seats
    Lib Dem 8% 3 seats
    UKIP 4% 1 seat
    SNP don’t care % 45 seats
    NI extra 18
    Green 2% 1

  46. ***Newsflash from Canterbury***

    Thomas a Becket has just risen from the dead and voted Labour.

    All anecdotal, of course…

  47. I hope by tomorrow morning we will see all the gambling posters declaring their total cash gain/losses on election bets.

  48. I predict a Con majority of 75.

    May and Tories satisfied, Corbyn and Momentum satisfied, Labour moderates and Liberals searching for a way forward.

    Probably wrong on all counts!!
    An interesting night ahead…..

  49. “Something in the Air”
    All evening of the recent NI assembly elections there was a real buzz on Twitter of something transformative – maybe Alliance or the moderate parties sweeping to power. The reality was a surge to Sinn Fein and more votes for the DUP. Fool me once …. etc

  50. The Mythical Unicorn.
    Unicorn was a statistician who posted on here pre-2015. He had an incomprehensible model, a lone voice who persistenly argued that the Labour vote was heavily over-estimated. Does he ever post? Let’s hope is he working for Survation.

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