As usual, the final poll of the campaign (unless ICM do release updated figures) is from Ipsos MORI, who traditionally keep on polling on Wednesday evening and publish their final call in Thursday’s Evening Standard. Topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 36%(-4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 4%(+2), giving them an eight point Tory lead. Two slight changes since the last poll – MORI have expanded their turnout adjustment to include tenure and, in the same way as they have done in their final call at past general elections, they’ve reallocated people who are certain to vote but are still saying don’t know in line with their newspaper readership. Full tabs are here.

And, that’s it until 10pm, when we will get the headline call from the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll from MORI and GfK.


2,965 Responses to “Final poll – Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 44%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%”

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  1. Paul Croft,
    ” I find it incredible that, at that stage, the Tories didn’t feel it necessary to revise their own, before publication.”

    Do you? I think it was written by professional politicians who knew exacly the effect it would have on voters. No possibility of an accident. Next figure out why they would want to do that. .

  2. @Danny, I simply believe that they wanted to get as much ‘necessary’ crap in the manifesto as possible so they could impose it in govt. and solve the budget deficit. They were arrogant enough to feel the opposition was so weak, they could float anything to the electorate because the electorate would buy into strong and stable v. Corbyn over even bad policy ideas.

  3. THE OTHER HOWARD
    COLIN
    Well done, your concern expressed over the last few weeks was well placed. I did not see it coming.
    “May screwed it completely. She must be on borrowed time in her own Party.”
    Indeed, sadly from my point of few as i see much to admire in her still, but i agree she is history.”

    I agree Colin. This was a real misjudgement but indeed was she ever really 25 points ahead in the polls? And so did she make a decision based on a false premise. I was miles out with my prediction.

    We perhaps, do have one mystery solved though. During the referendum she was very low key and almost invisible, whilst others were taking place in debates. Some thought she was being clever keeping her options open. But I now think This was because she knew that she wasn’t very good at that TV, thinking on your feet, format of debate. I rather wish we had known, although personally I find those 7 people debates rubbish. Quite disappointing really, as she has some great ideas, which are unlikely to see the light of day now.

    She will continue in post as long as the suits let her I guess, then they will select someone else. But who.? Maybe Boris will get his chance yet. I can’t think of anyone else with the charisma to take on Jezza.

    The only winner frankly from yesterday was Ruth Davidson. Everyone else lost including JC whose result was actually no better than Gordon’s. But no one in the party will dare challenge him now, so he is there until the next election and that, in its way is a victory for him.

    If only his manifesto had been more left wing. He would have won (joke)

  4. I know it’s a bit late, but can I just pick up on the awfulness of the BBC coverage? I suspect a lot has been said already, but, with a view to polling discussion, I thought the funniest thing was the choice of seats for live coverage. Apart from the obvious ones (party leaders, big name victims), they clearly had chosen locations that were supposed to be interesting Conservative targets. And so, like many pollsters and most of us, were completely undermined by the fact that all these ended up as (to some extent) boring largish Lab majorities. They mostly missed covering the big stories that Dr Mibbles and the YouGov model could have high-lighted.

    Actually I ended up going to bed for a bit and listening to the Radio 4, which was worse if anything. It sounded like they were doing it on the cheap by watching the BBC1 coverage and just reporting on what they saw there.

    Maybe I’ll give up on BBC next time. Or just watch the web pages of results – more informative and less distracting.

    I have a lot I could say on arrangements with DUP, but it has nothing to do with polling.

  5. @Candy

    Comparing to 2015 figures from:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

    Con-Lab relative gender gap tripled:
    2015 female 38C-33L vs. male 37C-29L = Relative +3 Lab female versus male
    2017 female 40C-42L vs. male 43C-35L = Relative +10 Lab female versus male

    Age you can’t compare directly from this data anyway (first I found on Google) since the groupings aren’t the same, but it’s a similar story:
    2015 under 40 = Relative +17 Lab in Lab:Con gap versus over 50s*
    2017 under 40 = Relative +58 Lab versus over 50s**

    *Statistically murky, just averaging the bins.
    **Statistically murkier, just averaging the bins and halfweighting the ones overhanging the boundaries.
    (But gives an idea at any rate!)

    It looks to me like a country with widening political division on these demographic lines. Sadly.

  6. Having spent the day listening to people and watching interviews with voters on the TV it is apparent that on virtually every aspect of the campaign the Tories miscalculated, from social care to not turning up to the debates,. Conversely the only negatives for Labour were Abbott’s performances and one slip on numbers by Corbyn.

    Labour are now in a position where a relatively achievable swing will now get them into power. From a Tory perspective the next few years with this parliament just looks like pain and a view they will face electoral defeat at the next election. Therefore I think it highly likely we will have another election later this year. Either way I think it probable that May will not be PM on 1st January 2018.

  7. @Candy I’d read the Labour manifesto carefully; it commits to leaving the EU and bothing else; very carefully written

  8. For those suggesting Corbyn should now fill his shadow cabinet with Chukka and those who previously opposed him within the Labour party….. this would be a terrible move and misses the point of what has caused him to be popular. They are traditional professional policiticians. We like Angela Rayner and Cat Smith and Clive Lewis et al precisely because they are not those people but new, fresh faces.

  9. Looking a those Ashcroft breakdowns:

    Only 18% of under 25’s voted Tory, 67% Labour. in the 25-34 age group the Tory/Lab split was 22-58. In the 35-44 age group it was 30-50

    Only in the over 45 age group and upwards did the Tories win a majority. And it was the over 65’s who really went Tory by a margin of 59-23.

    Rather worrying for the Tories that they appear to have lost an entire generation of voters.

  10. Trigguy
    I had the channel 4 coverage on my TV and BBC silent on my Mac. I turned the BBC sound down when it became clear they were dismissing the exit poll on the basis of actual swing in safe northern Labour seats
    C4 was quite entertaining with Widdecombe, Paxman and a couple of comics poking fun.

  11. I also made a few bob on NOM, having bought into Lord Mibbles’ arguments on this site!

  12. Richal, those age breakdowns are interesting. What is also interesting is to consider possible voter loyalty going forward. Do you think young voters will stick with Labour until at least the next election, and will they again be motivated to register and vote in such numbers? On the other hand, will over-65s stick with the Tories when cuts to winter fuel payments, creeping privatisation of the NHS and cuts to NHS services start to bite, and when the realities of changes to social care start to be talked about!

  13. The issue with young voters is that they see the Tories as divisive and some say they like one nation type conservatism which at present there is very little. One way they could improve this perception is if they made Brexit negotiations be all party creating consensus rather than division.

  14. Test

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