So, here goes – the eve of the election means we get the final call polls. We already got Opinium’s final poll yesterday and Ipsos MORI won’t be till tomorrow, but everyone else should be reporting today.

ICM have tended to show the strongest leads for the Conservatives during the campaign – their final poll for the Guardian continues that trend with topline figures of CON 46%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc), a Tory lead of twelve points. Fieldwork was yesterday and today. Note that these are preliminary figures and that ICM are continuing to collect data through the evening, so they will confirm final results later. The tables for the preliminary results are here.

ComRes for the Independent have final figures of CON 44%(-3), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was between Monday and today. Along with ICM ComRes tend to show the largest leads for the Conservatives, and the ten point lead is actually their lowest of the campaign. Tables are here.

Surveymonkey for the Sun report just a four point lead for the Conservatives: CON 42%(-2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Sunday to Tuesday and changes are from a week ago. Surveymonkey aren’t a BPC member so I don’t have more details, though we should be getting some later. Regular readers will remember that Surveymonkey polled at the last general election and got the Conservative lead right, albeit getting both main parties too low. There are more details of Surveymonkey’s approach here.

Panelbase have final figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1). Fieldwork was between Friday and today, and obviously shows no substantial change from their previous poll.

Kantar‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and today and shows a narrowing of the Tory lead to just five points – Kantar have previously tended to show larger leads. Note that there is a very minor methodology change here, Kantar have fixed the share of the 2017 vote coming from 2015 Conservative and Labour voters at 61% – I’m not sure exactly what that means, but it has only a minor effect anyway, increasing the Tory lead by one point. Tables are here.

YouGov‘s final poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%. Fieldwork was Monday to today. Minor method change here too – adding candidate names to the voting question, and reallocating don’t knows using past vote (which knocked down Labour support by just over a point). Full details here.

Survation‘s final poll (using their phone methodology, rather than their online one) has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 2%, GRN 2% – the one point Tory lead is the closest we’ve seen, though effectively the same as Survation’s last poll. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and tables are here.

BMG, who haven’t polled since back in 2016, have also put out a final poll. Their topline figures are CON 46%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%.


909 Responses to “Final eve-of-election polls”

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  1. Try again

    Con 312
    Lab 261
    Lib 4
    UKIP 0
    SNP 51?
    Plaid 3
    Green 1
    NI 18

    I’m staying with a high SNP because I think Scots lab voters will care more about have a Tory govt than a new Indy ref

  2. Let’s look at this through red-tinted glasses for a moment as I take a sip from my half full mug of cocoa. If, as these polls suggest Corbyn gets something north of a 35% vote share then it will be the best Labour performance since Blair’s 2001 landslide. Because of the likely size of the Tory vote share, however, he’s going to lose this election, and obviously won’t get anything like the tally of seats Blair got on 35% VI in 2005, and he may actually only stand still in seat terms, but it will be, in the circumstances, an extraordinary personal achievement. He will have kept the Labour flame burning and changed the whole depressing narrative that has been rotting the soul of centre left politics for over 10 years now. His campaigning style has been a revelation for a man who is no great orator and not the most naturally nimble of political performers. He’s put a smile on the face of many a tired and cynical old voter and, if he gets the young interested in politics again, and gets them voting, then he has done British democracy an enormous service. He’s done it with self-deprecating humour too, with decency, with charm and with quintessential Englishness. He’s eschewed all personal attacks on his opponents. As I said before, I see much of the England I love in him. Therefore, I salute him and, as the campaign has unfolded, I’ve grown to admire and like the man, despite my lingering doubts about him as a politician.
    Even as a rather big and inevitable trouncing falls upon all of us on the British Left tomorrow, I’m grateful to him in so many ways. I’ve been on the losing side more times than on the winning one for most of my 50 years in politics, but I’d like, in the darkness of defeat, to say this to Mr Corbyn.

    “Thank you Jezza. Don’t be hard on yourself tomorrow. You gave it all you had and it was much than I ever thought you possessed.. You’ve proved me to be a poor judge of both character and what makes a good political campaigner and, in that sense, you’re a much bigger and better man than I am. You should be proud of what you did and, as we carry on carrying on, all of us on the Left may one day have a very big debt of gratitude to pay you.”

  3. ATTENTION LURKERS!!!!! IT’S A CONSERVATIVE LANDSLIDE TOMORROW SO NO NEED FOR THE CONSERVATIVES AMONG YOU TO VOTE!!!!

    There we go I’ve done my bit for the labour campaign :)

  4. When was the last time that a UK ruling party increased its vote share and seat share at a GE and then did it again at the following election?

  5. @Crossbat

    Perhaps you need to look at the people Corbyn employs before you become too eulogistic?

  6. Hi CambridgeRachel

    Does your boyfriend know you are predicting/hoping for a hung parliament tomorrow? Can you persuade him to make a prediction here?

  7. SSSimon

    Okay, I’ll stop lurking and post a prediction, then.

    Cons: 350 (45%)
    Lab: 232 (36%)
    SNP: 42 (4%)
    Plaid: 3
    LD: 3 (6%)
    Green: 1 (2%)
    NI: 18
    Speaker: 1
    UKIP: 0 (4%)

    CONS majority: 50

  8. Great post Crossbat. I cannot ever recall a politician so vilified as Corbyn. He is remarkably resilient and comes out of this campaign greatly enhanced. For shame on those MP’s in his party who stabbed him in the back.

  9. One more day to go….

  10. What time is Yougov?

  11. 16/1 now available on a Labour minority.

    Would hope this is looking a little better for my CON
    majority bet.

    May going hard on anti terror legislation looks astute,
    remember they are targeting the midlands and nw
    marginals with that narrative. Could also play strongly
    with ex UKIP voters.

    Time for speculation almost over, thankfully.

  12. Anthony is going to have a lot of explaining to do if YouGov is badly out.

  13. Looking at the Comres internals the poll gives the Tories a 10% lead in England – which is effectively zero swing there from 2015. In addition , Labour will enjoy first time incumbency in many of its most marginal seats.

  14. Lib Dems think they have ousted Kate Hoey. I do not like Labour losing seats. This though is an exception. I would love to see her beaten.

  15. Woody

    Boyfriend thinks Scotland will swing it for the Tories, thinks they will pick up as many as 10 seats. I must be wearing him down

  16. Great post Crossbat

    FYI my wife voted postally for Corbyn before leaving the country at 3am today – her first ever Labour vote (after 30 years of other parties).

  17. @ Rich

    …as will those working for other polling organisations.

    YouGov’s most recent figures are broadly in line with Ipsos Mori, TNS, Survey Monkey and Survation.

  18. Great post Crossbat

    FYI my wife voted postally for Corbyn (against my advice and pleading as its a Con/ LibD marginal) before leaving the country at 3am today – her first ever Labour vote (after 30 years of other parties).

  19. @ CambridgeRachel – done.
    @ Lithemind, CIM – noted.

    @ Rich – I don’t think Anthony has anything to do with the new model; he did mention as much a few threads back.

  20. My prediction:

    Class war

  21. SSIMON

    Slight adjustments to my predictions:

    CON 46% – 367
    LAB 37% – 212
    LIB 6% – 7
    UKIP 3% – 0
    PC … – 3

    Scotland:

    SNP 41% – 43
    CON 31% – 13
    LAB 20% – 1
    LD 7% – 3

    I’ve gone with the ‘Labour building up vote in strong seats’ argument.

  22. Crossbat

    Lovely post. I think you speak for quite a few of us

  23. Bardin1

    She told you she voted Labour……

  24. If the Lib Dems think they’ve ousted Kate Hoey, then I suspect Dolly Theis will be quite pleased as she’ll probably come through the middle to take the seat for the Tories!

  25. And now for my fantastically exciting prediction. Net result 5 Conservative gains from SNP.

    There will be many other gains and losses, but the net effect other than the first statement will be zilch!

    And my guess is as wild as anybody else’s!

  26. I don’t post because I am on pre-moderation but I lurk a great deal.

    I would like to thank Anthony for running this site and helping political junkies like me with interesting, quantitive information.

    Secondly, although I am a little disappointed in the increasingly partisan posting some of you here have been posting well-reasoned opinion based almost purely on the statistics for what seems many years. Thank you. I appreciate your ability to dive into the figures and contextualise the cross breaks and methodologies used.

    Finally, some of you post genuine campaign information and feedback. Although only taken with a large pinch of salt I find some very interesting as they seem more genuine.

    So thanks, UKPR. This has been the weirdest election I have ever witnessed and although I am currently abroad I will be watching the exit polls with great interest.

  27. Prediction

    Cons: 328
    Lab: 240
    SNP: 49
    Plaid: 3
    LD: 7
    Green: 1
    NI: 18
    Speaker: 1
    UKIP: 0

    CONS majority: 9

  28. @Woody

    Actually she told someone else in my presence (to my surprise)

    More reliable than what she tells me I think (less MOE)

  29. YouGov bottle it at the last minute. lol!
    CON: 42% (-)
    LAB: 35% (-3)
    LDEM: 10% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    YouGov, Anthony, all is forgiven.

  30. Herding or swingback?

  31. I was joking, it’s hopefully swingback and am happy to see it!

  32. Martin Boon? @martinboon 10m10 minutes ago

    Wow. Strong post field reallocation of DKs by @yougov back to 2015 party (a la @ICMResearch), but stronger. Possibly explains trip to 7%

  33. Libdems and ukip look a tad high.

  34. From what I can dig out, final polls are

    ICM C46 L34
    ComRes C44 L34
    SurveyMonkey C42 L38
    PanelBase C44 L36
    Kantar C43 L38
    TNS C43 L38
    YouGov C42 L35
    Survation C43 L34
    Opinium C43 L36

    And a full for where I live (Wales)
    L46 C34 PC9 LD5 UKIP5

    Looks like May will get a majotity of 50 or more, Labour’s internal ceasefire will come to an end and – looking at other places, DUP may overtake Lib Dems to become fourth largest in Parliament

  35. YouGov lost their bottle and decided to go back to the safety of the herd. Changed their weighting. LOL. What a joke.

  36. @andy williams

    Where do you get the numbers from Survation?

  37. @RICH

    It’s suddenly looking a lot better!.

    Yougov had me a little worried as mentioned earlier.

  38. @Crossbat

    Excellent post, though I’m not ready to admit the “trouncing” yet! The Labour Party has changed and can only get stronger now whatever the result of this GE.

  39. YouGov have clearly bottled it. For a week now they have shown a steady Con lead of 3/4% then in the final 24 hours doubled it to 7%. When other pollsters are showing little change over the past few days thats feeble.

  40. @ Dexter Charles

    It’s a change of method from their last poll, that’s the ony reason for the change. Shameless herding.

  41. Yougov herding..embarrassing.

    Makes it look like they are part of the Tory campaign…keep saying it is close to get those voters worried about JC to stay at home or vote Tory, then salvage their reputation at the last minute.

    Sorry Anthony, it doesn’t pass the smell test. I will ignore anything coming from Yougov from here on out.

  42. IT’S NOT SWINGBACK IT’S METHOD CHANGE & HERDING

  43. Perhaps YouGov decided to hedge their bets a little – their experimental model is rather outlying for Labour, while the headline poll is now in line with the average Tory lead. I still expect the actual Tory lead to be larger tomorrow, and more in line with ICM and ComRes.

  44. Shame on YouGov for chickening out and herding back to all the others.

    They will look very very silly now if they were right all along.

  45. Either outlier for yougov, herding or possible tactical voting more likely than swingback given who has gained.

  46. My prediction and I’m going with YouGov & Survation:

    CON 41.5% (297)
    LAB 38,5% (277)
    SNP 4,0% (47)
    LD 7,5% (11)
    UKIP 3,8% (0)
    GRN 1,3% (1)
    PC 0,6% (2)
    OTHERS (2)

    NI (18, SDLP 2)

  47. That’s quite the bottle there from YouGov. One of those gold-plated champagne bottles.

    I’m not going to make a formal prediction, but I’m going to say “as you were”.

  48. CROSSBAT11
    Good one. You said it better than I could.
    But I just wonder..whether they might..

  49. @Philotes,

    Where did you hear that? Anthony didn’t mention a method change.

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