So, here goes – the eve of the election means we get the final call polls. We already got Opinium’s final poll yesterday and Ipsos MORI won’t be till tomorrow, but everyone else should be reporting today.

ICM have tended to show the strongest leads for the Conservatives during the campaign – their final poll for the Guardian continues that trend with topline figures of CON 46%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc), a Tory lead of twelve points. Fieldwork was yesterday and today. Note that these are preliminary figures and that ICM are continuing to collect data through the evening, so they will confirm final results later. The tables for the preliminary results are here.

ComRes for the Independent have final figures of CON 44%(-3), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was between Monday and today. Along with ICM ComRes tend to show the largest leads for the Conservatives, and the ten point lead is actually their lowest of the campaign. Tables are here.

Surveymonkey for the Sun report just a four point lead for the Conservatives: CON 42%(-2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Sunday to Tuesday and changes are from a week ago. Surveymonkey aren’t a BPC member so I don’t have more details, though we should be getting some later. Regular readers will remember that Surveymonkey polled at the last general election and got the Conservative lead right, albeit getting both main parties too low. There are more details of Surveymonkey’s approach here.

Panelbase have final figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1). Fieldwork was between Friday and today, and obviously shows no substantial change from their previous poll.

Kantar‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and today and shows a narrowing of the Tory lead to just five points – Kantar have previously tended to show larger leads. Note that there is a very minor methodology change here, Kantar have fixed the share of the 2017 vote coming from 2015 Conservative and Labour voters at 61% – I’m not sure exactly what that means, but it has only a minor effect anyway, increasing the Tory lead by one point. Tables are here.

YouGov‘s final poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%. Fieldwork was Monday to today. Minor method change here too – adding candidate names to the voting question, and reallocating don’t knows using past vote (which knocked down Labour support by just over a point). Full details here.

Survation‘s final poll (using their phone methodology, rather than their online one) has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 2%, GRN 2% – the one point Tory lead is the closest we’ve seen, though effectively the same as Survation’s last poll. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and tables are here.

BMG, who haven’t polled since back in 2016, have also put out a final poll. Their topline figures are CON 46%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%.

909 Responses to “Final eve-of-election polls”

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  1. Whiff of herding, yes.

    I’m still thinking “as you were” +/- 20, but that’s the difference between a hung parliament and a comfortable C working majority.

    “if these are true did anything really change ? ”

    I think “Bluekip” is now a thing.

  2. How many times before has a PM called an election, won and increased their majority, but ended up significantly weaker from having done so?

  3. Thanks AW for all your hard work. I was confused about some polling issues when I first lurked this site.
    Now i am still confused – but on a much higher level! :-))

  4. Is a majority of 44 good enough for May for her to be safe in her job? A win is a win I guess.

  5. @ Olivert

    Suggestive of either huge Con Lead, dead heat or Lab just ahead.

    Either that or he has joined and am-dram group and practising hamming it up for clicks

  6. With nearly every poll neck-and-neck 2 years ago, how can we be sure that methodology changes have worked and that we do not potentially have a 13-14% Con lead over Lab (if current poll average is 6-7%)?

  7. A practical question! Is there a special arrangement for this website tomorrow night like there was in 2015? Wasn’t there a special forum set up which was hosted separately.

  8. Survation or YouGov to show a Labour lead tonight. Maybe even both are the rumours about.

  9. A 4 point lead for Labour now from YouGov would set things up nicely.

  10. Just like to echo some of the thanks on here for running this site. I dont usually post but have been using this site almost daily and love the bit that lets you see the results based on the latest polls. I reckon the conservatives have it by 40 to 60 seats (no actual factual reason just my thinking)

  11. @NBAN
    I agree, the Tories will be very unhappy with anything less than 75.
    The worst campaign in my time as a Tory, 55 years.

  12. @TRISTAN

    Don’t forget that even if she ends up with no new gains, she ends up with a new manifesto and a mandate until 2022. That in itself is a win.


    I really am in Brighton and I honestly think there’s little doubt – Caroline will win.

    Although Labour have been campaining relatively enthusiastically with a young candidate.

  14. @AW

    Is there any chance the YG tables will be up tonight? Or will it just be the headline VI?

    Thanks very muchly.


    With nearly every poll neck-and-neck 2 years ago, how can we be sure that methodology changes have worked and that we do not potentially have a 13-14% Con lead over Lab (if current poll average is 6-7%)?

    I thought that !!!

  16. Someone on the last thread said: “Online panel polls were generally more accurate for the EU ref than phone ones. … That’s not to say that yougov is necessarily going to be right now.”

    But ICM use an online panel nowadays too. The difference between YouGov and ICM isn’t one of mode.

  17. Daniel- very true. Your point is particularly pertinent re: NI and income tax. No promises this time not to raise.

  18. @ LMZDEE

    Rumour where?

  19. Hi AlexW

    Thanks for the response, I get it, in fact I think it encapsulates the problems with polls. When they said it, I am sure they meant it, but, tomorrow in the booth they will tick the blue box as long as their previous motivation to be a Conservative was strong enough. They will justify it by the fact that all she has said is that she will only do it if necessary to stop the terrorist threat and that at the time other MPs, the press etc can make it not happen. All this in my opinion of course.

    This is why I think polls suffer, they over assume that what they are told is true, which it almost certainly is on that day at that time, ie it is what the responder believes is true, that is why I think polls overestimate Labour and Lib Dem and Green because more people want to believe they have the values of those parties, face it they are nicer! In the booth enough reassess and vote Conservative to the create the change we tend to see. If they were polled again the next day I think those that change on the day would go back to saying Labour/LD/Green.

    In fact you could help me out, on Friday ask them again how they actually voted and why HRA did or didn’t affect their vote.

  20. @LewBlew

    or conversely they have gone too far and the Tory lead is overstated!

  21. ICM 07 Jun 17 46 34 7 5 2 Con +12


    I have waited until the final knockings to come up with this but here goes

    CON 42.7 (345)
    LAB 37.9 (237)
    LD 8.1 (5)
    SNP 4.1 (44)
    Green 3.2 (1)

    This I how get the numbers to stack up although my feeling is it will be closer to Hung P than this….

  23. (As posted before)

    My prediction is a 10-12pt lead for the Conservatives with a Conservatives majority of 80-100. These polls seem to be aligning with my ‘feeling’ of where we will end up tomorrow at 10pm.

    Tories 42-44 (45)% , Labour 30-32% libs around 6-8%, UKIP 3% SNP to hold in Scotland losing 5-10 seats? (I’m not sure about Scotland don’t know enough, got no feel for unionism/independence)

  24. @Tristan (“Is a majority of 44 good enough for May for her to be safe in her job?”)

    Surely yes, at least for a few years. The Tories will argue that they’ve more than doubled their majority, and 44 is much better for them than a majority in the teens. It will be a lot less than some hoped for at the start, but they will certainly sell it as a significant victory.

  25. @ Catmanjeff – thanks for the declaration times link!

    @ Marco Flynn – I get what you’re saying, but nobody’s tried to game the system by spamming dozens of predictions, and the point from the outset was to update predictions as the campaign progressed anyway.

    In any case, all I’m doing is recording them – I’ll let others decide who’s the worthy victor ;-)

  26. @Mike: I doubt that a Labour/ SNP/ LibDem/ Green coalition with a majority of two (as per your calculations !) would be a viable government.

  27. @Lewblew (“how can we be sure that methodology changes have worked and that we do not potentially have a 13-14% Con lead over Lab (if current poll average is 6-7%)?”)

    Seems a bit doubtful that none of them would have adjusted enough, when some have clearly adjusted a good deal (as seen by the distance between different companies’ leads)… though ICM is already almost that high.

  28. Roland, some people are kind and if canvass returns were accurate we would have some seats with 2 MPs.

    Think Andy might be right about Bishop Auckland. though.

  29. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the bookies.

    2015 10/1 Tory majority
    2016 Leave (were outsiders but can’t remember the price
    2016 Trump 4/1

    The bookies and exchanges odds reflect where the money is going. It isn’t always correct. If it was we would all be millionaires.

  30. From the other thread –


    Swindon is where Honda is based and I don’t think promises made by gov will make the slightest bit of difference, as most people understand how much short term promises made by gov are worth in the long term – precisely nothing.

    Oh and for those people saying “seat x and y are going conservative, these are labour heartland seats it means a big conservative majority”

    or “seat w and z are going labour, these are conservative heartland seats it means a hung parliament”

    are missing the bigger picture. There are dynamics at play which mean both things are likely to happen. May has campaigned on a hard brexit and is highly likely to pick up strong leave labour seats such as Birmingham Erdington. Labour have campaigned on a soft leave and mobilizing the young, and is highly likely to pick up seats with high young populations and those that are highly dependent on trade with the EU such as Swindon South.

  31. MBRUNO

    “@Mike: I doubt that a Labour/ SNP/ LibDem/ Green coalition with a majority of two (as per your calculations !) would be a viable government”

    I agree, but it’s an option if nobody else can form a government.

  32. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 38% (+5)
    LDEM: 7% (-4)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    (via @TNS_UK / 01 – 07 Jun)
    Chgs w 30 May

  33. BT

    Why are you spamming this site, thought that link would go to a poll not a holiday site

  34. Michael. Thats what I have been saying for two years. The bookies are clueless. Leave were 8/1 on the afternoon of the EU Referendum.

  35. @ Cambridgerachel

    Not sure if you’re aware, but you’ve predicted no seats for Plaid?

  36. The ex -ukippers will not come out for the Tories , then hardly ever vote .
    The tory lead is to much, then will get 40%


    Also, If you are interested in Brighton politics, the real interesting stuff is either side of Pavilion (both Tory/Labout marginals)

    To the west in Hove: we have a marginal Labour seat. The current MP Peter Kyle is more typical PLP/ Corbyn sceptic.

    To the East in Brighton Kemptown: we have a marginal Tory seat. The MP is Simon Kirby. The challenging MP Lloyd Russel-Moyle is more to Labour’s left.

    There’s been quite a bit of input from Pavillion constituents for the Labour candidates on both sides, me included. Their campaigns feel quite different and I’m wondering if one does better than the other, will that colour the election aftermath discussion within the Labour party at all. Who knows?

  38. Ah Mr Haines: welcome back.

    There seems from the polls to be a mighty tactical voting effort to keep the Tory tsunami at bay.

    However it is merely damage limitation and highly dependent on turnout and motivation tomorrow.

    From speaking to several lifelong Labour voters I know, their motivation to vote for Corbyn is low. My sense is that the polls are overstating Lab’s support by about 3 points on average.

    I expect a crushing victory for Cons, which now is almost unexpected due to the hot air of the past few weeks.

  39. Looks like TNS correcting from their last poll which had Lib Dems unusually high? Tories still as solid as ever!

  40. So that’s 4, 5, 8, 10, 12. Average of 8.

  41. Ssimon

    Oops, that’s no good, will try again. Perhaps 3 for plaid

  42. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 38% (+5)
    LDEM: 7% (-4)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)


  43. The first declarations should be Houghton & Sunderland South, Sunderland Central and
    Washington & Sunderland West (all between 2300 – 0000).

    While they should be safe Labour, they will show where the UKIP votes are going as an indicator.

  44. Hi Emma

    I grew up in Hove and it was always incredibly Conservative until its loss in 1997 was one of the moments when I know TB had secured a huge majority. Of the two I think it is still the most likely to end as blue tomorrow.

  45. @ Cambridgerachel – do you want me to subtract 3 seats from your generous SNP estimate to compensate? :-)

  46. TNS

  47. Site creeping a touch tonight

  48. Dear Lurkers, please refresh the page less quickly so we can post a bit first :-)

  49. @LEWBLEW

    But the “underlying” race this year -the nummber that would have been reported in 2015- is Con +2.6, as you can see in the HuffPost Pollster, which reports the results without post-2015 fixes:

    In other words, the ‘raw’ data says this is a Con +2.6 race. After apllying the filters to avoid a 2015 catastrophe, it’s Con+7-ish. For the actual result to be Con +12, you’d need ICM’s “in case of doubt, add even more Tories” methodology to be true- which would make the underlying Con+2.6 data even more absurd.

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