So, here goes – the eve of the election means we get the final call polls. We already got Opinium’s final poll yesterday and Ipsos MORI won’t be till tomorrow, but everyone else should be reporting today.

ICM have tended to show the strongest leads for the Conservatives during the campaign – their final poll for the Guardian continues that trend with topline figures of CON 46%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc), a Tory lead of twelve points. Fieldwork was yesterday and today. Note that these are preliminary figures and that ICM are continuing to collect data through the evening, so they will confirm final results later. The tables for the preliminary results are here.

ComRes for the Independent have final figures of CON 44%(-3), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was between Monday and today. Along with ICM ComRes tend to show the largest leads for the Conservatives, and the ten point lead is actually their lowest of the campaign. Tables are here.

Surveymonkey for the Sun report just a four point lead for the Conservatives: CON 42%(-2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Sunday to Tuesday and changes are from a week ago. Surveymonkey aren’t a BPC member so I don’t have more details, though we should be getting some later. Regular readers will remember that Surveymonkey polled at the last general election and got the Conservative lead right, albeit getting both main parties too low. There are more details of Surveymonkey’s approach here.

Panelbase have final figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1). Fieldwork was between Friday and today, and obviously shows no substantial change from their previous poll.

Kantar‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and today and shows a narrowing of the Tory lead to just five points – Kantar have previously tended to show larger leads. Note that there is a very minor methodology change here, Kantar have fixed the share of the 2017 vote coming from 2015 Conservative and Labour voters at 61% – I’m not sure exactly what that means, but it has only a minor effect anyway, increasing the Tory lead by one point. Tables are here.

YouGov‘s final poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%. Fieldwork was Monday to today. Minor method change here too – adding candidate names to the voting question, and reallocating don’t knows using past vote (which knocked down Labour support by just over a point). Full details here.

Survation‘s final poll (using their phone methodology, rather than their online one) has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 2%, GRN 2% – the one point Tory lead is the closest we’ve seen, though effectively the same as Survation’s last poll. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and tables are here.

BMG, who haven’t polled since back in 2016, have also put out a final poll. Their topline figures are CON 46%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%.


909 Responses to “Final eve-of-election polls”

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  1. As a polling station anecdote, cast my vote in Old Southwark half an hour ago, not really any more busy than it was for the locals.

  2. More anecdotes please !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Mine’s a guddun: went for a walk in the rain with the girls and will vote later.

    Barnard Castle almost at general election fever pitch as I drove through. [Je ne pense pas nor nuffink.

  3. @Paul Croft

    “Sadly, from the posts of some “peeps” in this very boutique, the older ones have lots and lots of ideas. Sadly they are a rather poor mix of prejudice and attempted wit.”

    ——–

    Lol Paul, you haven’t lost your determination to try and judge others’ wit!! You’re lacking the fortitude to say who you’re on about regarding prejudice, but in terms of my posts it isn’t prejudice to note facts in surveys or indeed the reduced disposable income of the young, or indeed the rise in the cost of drink. Obviously I can supplement with things they tell me about not going into the City Centre much, but in this instance the facts are sufficient to infer quite a bit sans anecdote

  4. Labour struggling in Bish Auckland Paul, I expect Con gain 1-2000 Maj but close in Darlington.

  5. Voted on way home from work.

    Polling station deserted but I did see a youngish person on a bicycle cycling away from the station.

    Not sure if he had just been to vote but it might be evidence of something big happening…. :-)

  6. Jus a comment on the University of East Anglia photograph showing ‘the youth surge’ – here’s the queue at the same polling station in 2015:

    https://twitter.com/NeilWard586/status/596305004476166145

  7. Tory HQ have just emailed thier entire membership stating there has been a massive turnout and they need every tory to turn out.

    Surely Dr Mibbles has not been right all along?

  8. Did an hour’s lunchtime telling at my local polling station (safe Tory seat, retirement/holiday area).

    No real insights to report, except the incredible turnout of 65+ people. Their dedication to voting is exemplary: one old chap struggling up the steps apologised for his slowness (i offered a hand) and said, “sorry I left my stick in the car. And my blood’s too thick. I’m 94 your know.” And some young people can’t be bothered!

    There were several first-time voters , though, with a touching mix of anticipation, uncertainty and nervousness. It’s easy to forget that first-time voting is for some a rite of passage (others don’t give a damn, of course). The lady who preceded me at telling told me one young lad who looked barely 18 gave her a beaming smile on the way out and said, “I’ve just voted for you lot.” She said it made her day!

  9. Here it is today, for reference:

    https://twitter.com/Kirsty_Worm/status/872789432503545856

    Interestingly, I notice that a lot of the pictures of queues outside polling stations were clearly taken before they opened. Are they anything more than an orchestrated GTVO tactic to make turnout seem high?

  10. carfrew

    I think you protest too much. I was – I thought – pretty clearly on your side [assuming I judged that correctly] and was commenting on the numerous offensive, derogatory and generalised posts belittling our young people.

    The ones I know and have known are all very thoughtful, responsible, nice young people.

  11. Hi Dingbat

    This is the mail from director of campaigning

    “I’ve just got off a call with our field campaigners around the country.

    They’re telling me they’re seeing huge numbers of people turning up to vote – and we predict a lot of seats are going to be very tight.

    In the local elections last month, one election was a dead-heat – and the winner was decided by drawing straws.

    One vote either way would have made the difference: so every vote really does count.

    If you haven’t already, please make sure you vote before 10pm tonight – you don’t need your polling card, just head to your local polling station.

    Please encourage your friends and family to vote – text them, call them, offer them a lift to the polling station.”

    Fairly standard I would think?

  12. @ WOODY

    Sounds like pretty ordinary GTVO stuff. I doubt that a mass email to the membership would provide much insight anyway.

  13. Woody – agree nothing panicky in that and tbh whilst the overwhelming assessment on here and elsewhere is for a comfortable cons majority there is that scintilla of doubt so it make sense to GTVO.

  14. @woody

    Why not send it last night I wonder?

    Why midday today?

  15. tweet from mike smithson

    “Survation large sample phone poll has CON just 0.9% ahead”

  16. Paul Croft

    ZZZZZ .. Survation same people as last night they’ve phoned obviously. Mike Smithsons a leftie too isn’t he ..

  17. Mr Tatlock

    Sorry to disturb your kip.

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    News from the ole Trump committee re the fired FBI director is remarkable.

  18. @ Paul Croft

    it cannot be from today – I think it is illegal to publish data gathered today before the polls close?

    as to other matters – there is a lot of noise on here not related to polling which is a pity. I came here for views on psephology …. now it is more shouty and people becoming a little partisan in my view

    If the polls turn out to be wrong and Labour win – does that mean they were wrong when TM called the election based on a 45% share?

  19. @ Paul Croft

    Have Rosie & Daisy caused havoc down at the polling station yet?
    Apart from being a leftie LD Smithson is a gambler so I think he’s trying to affect odds in his direction as much as he is able. He’ll be hoping to fill his boots.

  20. You ever watch one of those recordings where a car crash is played in extreme slow motion?

    That’s Trump’s presidency.

    At some point you know he’s going head first through the windshield but we just haven’t quite reached that point yet.

  21. @ AlexW

    Where Trump is concerned I think we’re all singing from the same hymn sheet!

  22. bantams

    Voting at 7 ish.

  23. Interesting if high turnout occurs. Survation said the young would come out in numbers in their analysis with strong voting intentions surveyed. They also called it 41-40, Lab win the most seats.

  24. Just voted now – safe Tory seat. Polling station very busy for mid afternoon. Tellers highly confident. Private polling is giving them good results. Lots of older people…..

  25. Spaceman,
    “If the polls turn out to be wrong and Labour win – does that mean they were wrong when TM called the election based on a 45% share?”

    Two separate issues there Spaceman. There are thousands of back posts on here debating the difference between polls and who has the right way of processing the data, but we will not know for a few hours yet.

    But also bear in mind that the ‘right answer’ today is not the same as the right answer a month ago. So a company which happens to get it dead right today, might have been really wrong one month ago, and we have no way to tell.

    They have all pretty much agreed that the total number of people committing to the two main parties has risen during the campaign and the undecideds have fallen. Also that labour has been catching up. Unfortunately what has never been clear is quite how big the gap is.

    The score was only ever of people who had already made up their mind when they were asked. Many people might have known exactly how they felt at the start and will vote today precisely as they said they would. Others might have only made up their minds on the walk to the polling station, or swapped sides, or change their mind more than once.

  26. Paul Croft

    Mike Smithson tweeted that *15* hours ago- it refers to the unrounded final Survation poll yesterday (the one modelled on hordes of under 25s voting)

    “Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)
    08/06/2017, 01:52
    Survation large sample phone poll has CON just 0.9% ahead”

    = reminds me of those momentum ‘hacks’ where they retweet a favourable newspaper article from 15 months ago as if it’s from today !

    Stop trolling the forum!

  27. Tweet from Simon Rickets on why no cats at polling stations.

    “You won’t see cats at polling stations – they believe democracy is an illusory experiment that only reinforces the hegemony of power.”

  28. @Danny, evidence suggests that telephone polls are more accurate than online polls per se. What I can’t fathom is the huge diff between ICM’s and Survations final calls, it’s a whopping 11% – they’re polling two entirely different elections!

  29. rob

    That is just rude for the sake of it and for no reason I understand.**

    You may have wanted to consider that I could have just received an email about that tweet [I had] and was so little exercised by it that I simply passed it on without doing a historical background check. On the other hand you clearly choose to just dive in with childish insults, which is a shame.

    Also I am, like you, not a supporter of Corbyn and left the Labour Party when he won election for the second time.

    ** Oh… apart from the fact that you seem to react with anger whenever anyone suggests that the Labour Party might be doing better than you feel they are or should be. Seems an odd thing to worry you but, hey, it’s a free world.

    SFO

  30. Survey Monkey, the only company to call a Cons win last time I believe, had a 4% gap in their final poll in favour of the tories; hung parliament. Survation have a very good track record in phone polling btw. If ICM are right (+11%) or Survation are right (1%), the other polling companies are going to look pretty stupid again, as they were on Brexit, as they were at the last GE!

  31. Fred,
    “@Danny, evidence suggests that telephone polls are more accurate than online polls per se. What I can’t fathom is the huge diff between ICM’s and Survations final calls, it’s a whopping 11% – they’re polling two entirely different elections!”

    Even if it is true that telephone polling is more accurate, I am sure it is possible to mess one up just as easily. Doing anything well is always tricky.

  32. Don’t know who else may have followed bits of Comey/Senate Committee but McCain seemed to have real problems understanding the difference between the Clinton emails investigation being closed whilst it still being possible that she could still, potentially, be a part of the Russian hacking thing.

    It was really odd as, in general, it all seemed very impressive. I do have mixed feelings about the American’s ubiquitous use of “sir” as a form of address though but I guess, on balance, it does show both courtesy and respect.

    We don’t use it well over here – it always sounds wrong to me.

  33. Well the anticipation is killing me!

  34. @Paul Croft

    Rugby Union players address the referee as Sir, at least they used to! Unlike their football counterparts who just seem to question the refs parentage!

  35. Voted about 45 minutes ago, along with Shelts Jnr and Mrs Shelts. Not as busy as the Euro referendum, although poll clerk said it had been steady.

    Can see the polling station from my kitchen window and there are people going in and out regularly. I suspect the turnout will be around 60% in Neil Kinnock’s old safe Labour seat

  36. Lots of noise on twitter and social media about high turnout, particularly younger people.

    Nothing you can put any credence in, but it certainly magnifies the anticipation!

  37. There were the usual reprehensible front pages on the Sun, Mail and Express today; an absolute disgrace for so called newspapers. I hope they’re investigated though of course, they know they’ve done their damage and won’t mind a fine. Plus, May starts with a huge poll lead and figures, let’s call the election, then I can get these hardline Brexiters in my own party off my back (the real reason she called the GE, she had a majority of 12 remember so could pass anything in theory) and have a big majority full of lobby fodder and loads of power. If Labour do end up the largest party, there are going to be huge recriminations, the two sides of the tory party will blame each other like crazy. Then Jez starts putting into practice policies the exact opposite of those we’ve had for the last 38yrs. Can you imagine this, politics on its head?!

  38. I can Fred .. and for me that is a bad scenario for the UK. The only more scary prospect is Labour being propped up by the SNP at the price of an immediate referendum.

    But if it happens the Tory party would only have themselves to blame by avoiding any discussion on the economy. The lack of debate over the economy over the past few weeks is astonishing. Has anyone seen the Chancellor ?

  39. @ Spaceman

    If you had even the slightest awareness of Scottish politics you would be aware that an immediate referendum is the last thing the SNP would want to be put on the table.

  40. @ExileInYorks

    I will accept that my knowledge of Scottish politics is thin, but I think that if the SNP end up holding the balance of power then NS will name her price … either another vote on Brexit or an independence referendum either in name, or otherwise by the abstraction of powers from Westminster.

  41. Why so quiet?

  42. blackrabbit

    well I’m playing online chess.

    maybe tension for the others.

    or they’ve forgotten that it’s election night

  43. One hour to go tension! !

  44. Anyone seen the problem reported from Newcastle students have been turned away the labour mp is defending 600 majority

  45. @ Blackrabbit

    Only quiet in this thread. Everyone else has been in the new thread this afternoon

  46. i cant see a new one

  47. My wife’s friend has two daughters. Both are studying at the university in Newcastle. They’ve been turned away four times without being given a reason other than they’re not on the electoral register printout and to try again later. The youngest has mobility problemsThey are trying a final attempt. Nobody at the council can explain what’s happening. They have been in touch with BBC news since lunchtime and are waiting to be interviewed later tonight.
    Stop Press: EXIT POLLS!!!!

  48. What a night we seem to have ahead of us now!!!!
    Who said that young people are too lazy?
    I cannot imagine what’s going through TM’s mind at this moment…

  49. From 24% points behind just a few weeks ago :-)

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