So, here goes – the eve of the election means we get the final call polls. We already got Opinium’s final poll yesterday and Ipsos MORI won’t be till tomorrow, but everyone else should be reporting today.

ICM have tended to show the strongest leads for the Conservatives during the campaign – their final poll for the Guardian continues that trend with topline figures of CON 46%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc), a Tory lead of twelve points. Fieldwork was yesterday and today. Note that these are preliminary figures and that ICM are continuing to collect data through the evening, so they will confirm final results later. The tables for the preliminary results are here.

ComRes for the Independent have final figures of CON 44%(-3), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was between Monday and today. Along with ICM ComRes tend to show the largest leads for the Conservatives, and the ten point lead is actually their lowest of the campaign. Tables are here.

Surveymonkey for the Sun report just a four point lead for the Conservatives: CON 42%(-2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Sunday to Tuesday and changes are from a week ago. Surveymonkey aren’t a BPC member so I don’t have more details, though we should be getting some later. Regular readers will remember that Surveymonkey polled at the last general election and got the Conservative lead right, albeit getting both main parties too low. There are more details of Surveymonkey’s approach here.

Panelbase have final figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1). Fieldwork was between Friday and today, and obviously shows no substantial change from their previous poll.

Kantar‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and today and shows a narrowing of the Tory lead to just five points – Kantar have previously tended to show larger leads. Note that there is a very minor methodology change here, Kantar have fixed the share of the 2017 vote coming from 2015 Conservative and Labour voters at 61% – I’m not sure exactly what that means, but it has only a minor effect anyway, increasing the Tory lead by one point. Tables are here.

YouGov‘s final poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%. Fieldwork was Monday to today. Minor method change here too – adding candidate names to the voting question, and reallocating don’t knows using past vote (which knocked down Labour support by just over a point). Full details here.

Survation‘s final poll (using their phone methodology, rather than their online one) has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 2%, GRN 2% – the one point Tory lead is the closest we’ve seen, though effectively the same as Survation’s last poll. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and tables are here.

BMG, who haven’t polled since back in 2016, have also put out a final poll. Their topline figures are CON 46%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%.


909 Responses to “Final eve-of-election polls”

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  1. carfrew

    “The older peeps often have little idea of what it’s now like for the young”

    Sadly, from the posts of some “peeps” in this very boutique, the older ones have lots and lots of ideas. Sadly they are a rather poor mix of prejudice and attempted wit.

  2. @MAGOSH

    Does the fact you can’t buy a home in the SE even as a higher rate tax payer have something to do with it?

  3. Just been to vote. I couldn’t make my mind up who to vote for. In the end I decided to put a big X next to the Conservative candidate because I know I definitely don’t want the Tories to win.

  4. Philotes – Haha Vicar of Dibley?

  5. @ Philotes

    The polls reckon a sufficiently large number of voters will make the same mistake as you and TM will be PM tomorrow. :]

  6. @ Philotes
    Just been to vote. I couldn’t make my mind up who to vote for. In the end I decided to put a big X next to the Conservative candidate because I know I definitely don’t want the Tories to win.

    Huh! Am I missing something? Is this sarcasm? If so about what? Not being cheeky honest, just don’t get it.

  7. @ WB

    Vicar of Dibley joke.

  8. Question: In the event that 0.5M 18-24 year olds all decide at once to go to vote at 9.30pm, do the polling stations stay open? How is this managed?

  9. Robin:

    If you’re in the queue once polling stations close at 10, they’re kept open until the whole queue is done.

  10. I don’t know if I’m bedevilled by caching, but last time I posted a comment it seemd to bring up everybody else’s, so forgive my trying it again without anything to add to whatever conversation might be going on.

  11. @Relick

    How do they stop people joining the queue? How would disputes about this be handled?

  12. Hi all

    I have just voted in a safe Labour London seat (Lab 50%+ in 2015).

    I asked the clerks if been busy and they said “very, busier than last year”. They also have a sheet on the door showing numbers voted by hour and running total. Do others have this?

    I shall go up to check the turnout numbers and ask the clerks later on and report back. No evidence on youth turnout, it was empty when I went.

  13. I’ve always voted in cities (Cambridge and London) and never once have had to queue. habit is to vote first thing in the morning.

    Did see two under 35’s walk out as I arrived – must be a sign;-)

  14. Robin:

    I don’t really know, depending on how strict the rules are on it they might just let people join the queue anyway – there isn’t an endless number of voters per station anyway. Don’t take my word for it, though, the rules may actually be very strict.

  15. Robin –

    If there is room polling station staff should get everyone in the queue at 10pm inside the building and close the doors. If there isn’t, they are supposed to put one member of staff at the back of the queue to turn extra people away. I imagine if there’s a large queue or there are issues the police would provide assistance.

  16. Thanks for clarifying, Anthony.

  17. Sheffield Hallam constituency. I live 500 metres from the huge UoS hall- which has been a ghost town for 2 weeks now.

    Grey and drizzle.

    Voted for Clegg (in 2015 I voted for his Labour opponent).

    I like the economic aspects of Labour manifesto: but would never be able to look myself in the mirror ever again if I gave my vote as PM to an CND supporting anti-American anti-Israeli neutralist with a long history of complete and total disloyalty to Labour leaders and governments.

    Hung around for half an hour (lunchtime)

    Not a student in sight. Not one obvious under 30. Steady stream of middle age and OAPs.

    There. That’s my ‘experience’ of today.

  18. Clegg should be safe then. Oldies seem to like him :-)

  19. For what it is worth my opinion is that there will be a reasonably high turn out today, any youth increase will be more than offset by (what is the word? non-youth? oldies? whatever) turning out to vote against Corbyn.

  20. SSSIMON

    Im 51!

    Two other members in my university department are in 50s also and both giving Clegg their vote whereas 2015 it was his opponent ;-)

  21. @WOODY

    the grey horde.

  22. Anyone expecting all but a small minority of students to vote before lunchtime has very strange expectations.

  23. From the Guardian

    “There’s been some excitement below the line and on social media about a Wired story from last night talking about a poll that shows Jeremy Corbyn in the front as we come to the general election finishing line.

    Without wanting to rain on anybody’s parade, it’s worth exercising some caution around the figures.

    The company who carried out the survey in the story aren’t part of the British Polling Council, they are an ad-tech company called Qriously, without a specific history of political polling.

    I asked them about the sample size and methodology, and they say the data was collected between 4 June and 7 June, and they asked 2,213 UK adults, including 1,905 registered voters and 1,279 likely voters. That gave an outcome of 41.3% Labour to 38.5% for the Tories. The claim to use machine learning to turn that into a representative sample.

    So this isn’t a face-to-face or telephone poll as conducted by other companies. Essentially the company buy ad space within mobile phone apps, and show a survey question instead of a banner ad. That figure putting Corbyn in the lead is effectively based on a self-selecting sample doing an online poll.

    The CEO of the company, Christopher Kahler, told the Guardian: “There seem to be some questions around the representativeness – we’re finding that while there is of course a bias in the smartphone population, so many people have smartphones that there is a representative subset within it.”

    One thing for sure, it’s certainly got their name out and about today, so someone at the company is doing their job right.”

  24. Ok. My polling station in a safe Labour seat was empty, though an old couple were just arriving as I left. The only people I’ve seen under 50 were the tellers.

  25. “Anyone expecting all but a small minority of students to vote before lunchtime has very strange expectations”

    Not as strange an expectation as asking an apparent ‘serious’ question of what happens if thousands of ‘young people’ turn up to polling booth en masse at 21:30 !!!

  26. @ PeteB

    What part of the country are you in? Was it London? Turnout doesn’t seem so great yet in parts of the capital.

  27. @ Rob Sheffield

    You’re still a youngster in my mind, old chap! :-)

  28. “Anyone expecting all but a small minority of students to vote before lunchtime has very strange expectations”

    But didn’t you know the 36 million people in U.K. Under 21 have all been so enthused by Saint Jeremy that they were already awake an hour before the polls opened- like 8 year olds on Christmas morning ;-) !!

  29. @ Anthony Wells

    Do you know if there will be a final update of the MRP model today?

  30. For you Dr M from the Guardian

    “There have been long queues of students voting at the University of East Anglia – in a Norwich south, a seat won in 2015 by Labour’s Clive Lewis.”

    “Students were also seen queuing at the University of Kent, in the safe Tory seat of Canterbury.”

    Both accompanied by pictures of……student-looking people standing in orderly queues.

  31. Just voted in Reading West and it was deserted! Only other people were a few pensioners. Mind you, it’s the middle of the afternoon haha

  32. I went to vote mid-morning in the pouring rain in East Lothian. The rain continues. Having voted, I had coffee over a period of 30-40 minutes in the cafe in the building where the voting takes place. Over the time I was there it was mostly people over 60 coming to vote and, in my opinion, a great many were Old Labour. This town splits fairly evenly SNP and Labour. North Berwick is the main Conservative part of the constituency.

    I would guess there is a possibility that East Lothian will go from SNP to Labour, despite Mr Kerevan’s lead from last time.

  33. @WOODY

    That suggests high youth turnout, a lot of universities are closed so I expect there to be a labour bump in many marginals also.

    I’m glad on the increased Canterbury turnout as I have a bet on that for lab, its also one of the tory safe seats supposed to flip to lab under the YouGov model.

  34. My polling station in a hyper-safe Tory seat was also very quiet.

    Could we be seeing substantial differential turnout according to how marginal the seat is, or how much of a target it has been? To get Dr Mibbles excited, perhaps the increased turnout for the young will be even higher than 2010, but only where it matters :)

  35. @Robin

    Perhaps an unenthused over 50’s voting block? God knows May has given traditional tories nothing to vote for.

  36. Casting my mind back many a moon, my first election was when I was a student back in 2005, I seem to remember a busy polling station then as well. 2005 had a dismal turnout. I don’t think you can read to much into the national picture based on the queues at polling stations in halls of residence.

  37. Betting odds on Torys is drifting massively. Was 1:33, now 1:10

    Anyone know why? Exit polls?

  38. FWIW imo there are 3 key groups of voters in this GE in E&W

    2015 UKIP votes, how will they disperse?
    Best estimate is 50% Con, 20% Lab so per seat 30% of UKIP net gain for Cons v Lab where a UKIP candidate but complicated where there isn’t.

    2015, 2010 non voters (maybe even older) – breaking heavily for Labour especially young voters (under 40) many of who have never voted.

    Add in some Green to Lab and LD tactically for Lab I reckon Lab gain off Cons with these elements combined but still behind in Vote Share.

    The other biggy though is mainly older 2015 Lab -Con.

    At the start of the campaign this was very significant, still will be and will be enough to give the Tories an increased majority.

    As the campaign progressed, though, doubts over Mrs May and perhaps Corbyn doing better than expected will have edged a few back to Labour but not that many. More, however, might abstain as they can’t bring themselves to vote for Labour this time but are no longer enamored with the PM.

    This slight reversal/stroke partial reversal will imo stop a mega majority keeping it below 70, maybe 50.

  39. SSSimon
    I’m in the Black Country.

  40. PeteB I noticed you were off to play chess the other day – which tournament (I only play online now – ICC and Chessmaniac)

  41. @ JimJam

    I’d add the Scottish Unionist vote as another key group to watch. Best case for Cons within this group could contribute about 20 seats to their majority.

    My guess is that significant numbers of traditional SLab voters hate SNP enough to vote SCons, but this will not be reciprocated to any great extent.

  42. Friend went Plymouth Moor View Polling station empty this was an hour ago dinner time, but he did say box was crammed to top he found it hard to put his vote in.

  43. Bardin1
    I play a lot of league chess and county matches. I went to the Cotswold congress recently but had a very poor result. Too much hanging around. I play online with chessworld and chess.com.

  44. northernruralmodeoman

    Nope, there’s essentially no way at all the exit poll can leak at this stage. JC et al are locked away crunching data. No one else finds out until about a quarter to ten, when a handful of people at the BBC, Sky and ITN get told (people like Dimbleby, the election editor and so on… plus the people who prepare the graphics that go up at 10pm of course!)

  45. Interesting than Corbyn decided to stand in Sheffield Hallam, I thought it was Jared O’Mara.

    Seems the moving rightwards as one get older (over 50) has some anecdotal credence.

  46. @PeteB used to do all that up in Scotland but now I’m just online – still enjoy the great game though

  47. Exile – agree I kept mine to E&W as Scotland is more complicated.

  48. Might just be some money gone on other outcomes such as no OM so the bookies want to attract a bit more on Tory OM?

  49. “During the course of the election campaign, the Labour and Conservative leaders have used Twitter strikingly differently.

    Jeremy Corbyn’s account posted 703 tweets, while Theresa May’s tweeted 77 times, the lowest of any of the party leaders since the election was called on 18 April.

    Corbyn’s tweets have had higher engagement than May’s, with almost twice as many favourites and retweets per tweet.”

    Interesting, but not hugely surprising given the different demographics of the respective core votes. However, I do wonder if their limited engagement with the twittersphere is a missed opportunity for Cons to get their key messages out in hostile territory for very little effort.

  50. @EXILEINYORKS

    I agree, but I have noticed not being social media orientated myself. Looking at the tweets on various sites it has been a very amusing day for me leading up tonight’s excitement just seeing a war going on when clicking on the various tweets.

    I feel I am the election spy having such a laugh at the comments

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