So, here goes – the eve of the election means we get the final call polls. We already got Opinium’s final poll yesterday and Ipsos MORI won’t be till tomorrow, but everyone else should be reporting today.

ICM have tended to show the strongest leads for the Conservatives during the campaign – their final poll for the Guardian continues that trend with topline figures of CON 46%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc), a Tory lead of twelve points. Fieldwork was yesterday and today. Note that these are preliminary figures and that ICM are continuing to collect data through the evening, so they will confirm final results later. The tables for the preliminary results are here.

ComRes for the Independent have final figures of CON 44%(-3), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was between Monday and today. Along with ICM ComRes tend to show the largest leads for the Conservatives, and the ten point lead is actually their lowest of the campaign. Tables are here.

Surveymonkey for the Sun report just a four point lead for the Conservatives: CON 42%(-2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Sunday to Tuesday and changes are from a week ago. Surveymonkey aren’t a BPC member so I don’t have more details, though we should be getting some later. Regular readers will remember that Surveymonkey polled at the last general election and got the Conservative lead right, albeit getting both main parties too low. There are more details of Surveymonkey’s approach here.

Panelbase have final figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1). Fieldwork was between Friday and today, and obviously shows no substantial change from their previous poll.

Kantar‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and today and shows a narrowing of the Tory lead to just five points – Kantar have previously tended to show larger leads. Note that there is a very minor methodology change here, Kantar have fixed the share of the 2017 vote coming from 2015 Conservative and Labour voters at 61% – I’m not sure exactly what that means, but it has only a minor effect anyway, increasing the Tory lead by one point. Tables are here.

YouGov‘s final poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%. Fieldwork was Monday to today. Minor method change here too – adding candidate names to the voting question, and reallocating don’t knows using past vote (which knocked down Labour support by just over a point). Full details here.

Survation‘s final poll (using their phone methodology, rather than their online one) has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 2%, GRN 2% – the one point Tory lead is the closest we’ve seen, though effectively the same as Survation’s last poll. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and tables are here.

BMG, who haven’t polled since back in 2016, have also put out a final poll. Their topline figures are CON 46%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%.


909 Responses to “Final eve-of-election polls”

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  1. To me in London , there is a higher turn-out of people under 45.I asked the returning officer and he said it looked that way to him?

    but different things happen in different places .I believe the ex -ukippers will not turn for the tories , they hardly ever vote.
    Tory Majority of 30

  2. Trevor where has the money been going in Twickenham?

  3. @ MILLIE – LibDems

    Lots of people using UNS style models which given LDEMs national drop in support will show them net losing seats. However…

    1/ LDEMs might be thinking tactically in LAB seats (as are Greens and on the flip-side LAB in LDEM seats). This might explain at least some of their drop in the polls (you can see that in VI versus 2015 vote cross breaks).
    Lots of tactical seat stuff going around, one of the better ones here:
    https://www.tactical2017.com/key-seats/
    2/ LDEM have tiny pockets of support so a drop in % does not necessarily mean a drop in seats. In particular S.W.London and richer suburbs in Scotland have several seats that they might win (especially if aided by tactical voting)
    3/ Note some LDEMs are really soft CONs and as you see in VI versus 2015 they have moved to CON (forced to chose between Champagne OR Socialism rather than waste their vote (or support Farron) they’ve had to make a chose :) )

    Of course it might also just be that people don’t like the LDEMs!! Several weeks ago I thought they would steal Remain votes and hand a lot of extra seats to CONs via a split opposition (see SNP in 2015!). However, now they seem like UKIP – the Brexit battle is over, why still exist – decide if you prefer champagne or socialism and let’s get back to a 2party nation.

  4. AW

    Many thanks.

  5. Good afternoon from a rather cloudy and dull day in the PSRL (obvs now Tory landslide as no one under the age of 35 ever turns out to vote if the temp falls below 20 degrees).

    TBH only poll I’m going to pay any attention to is the exit poll later – too many of the final polls are gravitating towards a result which reflects what you get with some educated guess work and if you are being cautious.

    The empirical evidence is all over the place – which may reflect strong regional variations in the nature of the election. Neither side has a ‘spring’ in its step – and if anyone is proven right in their predictions I think this time round it will be through luck rather than design.

  6. @Dr Goebbels

    “You seem pretty ignorant of young people if I may say so. In fact the under-25’s are now the least likely demographic to drink alcohol”

    That’s because they are all on glue mate – as a result I predict a sticky end for the Labour voting youth of today

  7. The debt free education incentive for youth to turn out is compelling.

    Such a shame they haven’t thought about the job losses and huge immigration wave under Corbyn that will put houses even more beyond their reach. It’s a giant con-trick.

  8. @TonyBTG

    Yes, perhaps I should have been clearer. I was not disputing your point. I was merely giving a reason for why newspapers don’t do as you suggest and prefer to highlight the figures after all the “predictive” adjustments.

    They even do their own voodoo polls as well!

  9. @DrMibbles

    Just saw a little discussion on under 25s being likely to drink less alcohol. This is of course taken across the group as an average. I would hazard a guess that as this group is 25% from an ethnic minority compared to 5% of the over 60s that due to religious and cultural reasons this could skew the perceived activities of the rest of the group.

  10. @DRMIBBLES

    You are distorting the facts … the youth surge everyone is talking about that will make the difference is in the under 25’s i.e. a proportion who are unlikely to have voted before and are hacked off that Brexit happened when they didn’t vote. All I was pointing out was per constituency that is very few votes (assuming a uniform spread)

    I don’t believe that in the 25-45 age bracket there is a hard shift to the left … on that basis the people aged 35+ only didn’t vote Milliband last time because he wasn’t left enough ?

    Remember there is only two years between this and the last election. People who voted Cameron two years ago and rejected centre left politics are not about to switch to a hard left candidate – which labour would need on top of any boost from a more youth voting.

  11. @RichardB

    They don’t mind immigration and being in the EU gives more chances to work and study abroad. Talking with young people that’s often an item high on the agenda. And they know being out the EU doesn’t necessarily reduce non-EU migration, might even increase it cos parties supporting business might cater to business…

  12. SCEPTIC VOTER

    “It sounds like the youth turn out is strong but patchy. Some areas swamped others nothing.”

    This is the impression I’ve been getting too (I trust reports on sites like this more than Dr Mibbles’s twitter feed, which I suspect may have a partisan tinge).

    Question is, which areas are being swamped? Is it urban areas? Remain areas? marginals?

  13. @ Redrich

    “Good afternoon from a rather cloudy and dull day in the PSRL (obvs now Tory landslide as no one under the age of 35 ever turns out to vote if the temp falls below 20 degrees).”

    You forgot to add that no one under the age of 35 turns out when the temperature is over 20 either, because they are
    a) sunbathing in the park*
    b) sipping expensive lattes in pavement cafes*
    c) falling over drunk in beer gardens*

    * Select pejorative cliché of choice according to personal prejudice. ;-)

  14. CARFREW……..And young entrepreneurs are riding much more sophisticated bikes, I put it down to the unreliability of cars around here, due to a lack of hydrogen filling stations, and of course, a racing bike is the ideal vehicle from which to operate ones phone snatching service. ;-)

  15. Just a thought…many of the final polls show a fall in Lab VI. There may be various reason for this including some Lab voters have only just decided to vote tactically for the LDs?

  16. SPACEMAN: every recent poll I have seen has had Con to Lab switchers outnumbering Lab to Con switchers – usually something like 8-10% of 2015 Conservative voters now plumping for Labour. So I think you may be wrong that Corbyn is not going to attract anyone who chose Cameron over Miliband.

  17. @Jon Urpens

    That might be part of it, but in surveys of young peeps and trying to find out why, it seems it’s also driven by things like concerns over social media. People worried they’ll wind up in pics showing them in a state of ill repair. Can be embarrassing but might also affect employment prospects. Also, bit like smoking, health reasons are becoming more prominent, links to cancer etc.

  18. On alcohol, most of the studies had found that background religious/cultural changes have contributed but in themselves do not sufficiently describe the drop in drinking in the young. There is generally a drop even amongst white, non religious.

    Perhaps brewdog’s free beer for voters offer is misplaced.

  19. This is becoming REALLY boring.

    This is a web site where we discuss polling – opinion polls, pollsters, polling methodology.

    It is now just the same repetitive drivel where certain people try to convince everyone that the youth are turning out in droves to upset the odds.

    Data counts for nowt, the polls count for nowt, the evidence counts for nowt.

    The only things that matter to these people are the desparate fantasies bouncing around in the vacuums between their ears.

    Its clearly a desparate effort to use this platform to influence the voting intentions of the casual reader and undecided voter.

    That is not what this web site is for. Its tedious and irrelevant. Please pack it in – you’re spoiling things for serious commentators who know what they’re talking about.

  20. Can I join in the prediction game?

    Prediction (share/seats)

    CON 45% / 361
    LAB 35% / 214
    LD 8% / 7
    UKIP 3% / 0
    GRN 2% / 1
    SNP 4% / 46
    Plus 18 seats in NI

    CON majority of 72

  21. Mossy +1

  22. @ ED G – Twickenham is roughly 3-1 CON (or 1-3 LDEM)
    If you use a regional model taking London LDEM then it should go back to Vince Cable for LDEM with about that implied probability (2/3s)
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131324214

    I used to live nearby, have lots of facebook “friends” still there…

    Today’s facebook ranters slinging the usual insults (I’ve banned myself from comments on facebook since Brexit) but for a pointless anecdote my sample of around a dozen (mostly bankers one side, lawyers the other) would suggest the fear of national socialism might see some shy Tory affect in that seat!!!

    I put some money on a CON win there early on but think the odds are probably about right and actually posted some hopeful carrots on the other side of the market to thin the stake down.

  23. ANTHONY WELLS

    Thanks Anthony for the reply.

    Yes, I am aware that the data is available for geeks like us!

    But I was just arguing for an additional set of headline polling data to be actually published, in addition to the weighting/reallocated.

    Basically so everyone has a clear and unbiased weather vane of public opinion. i am aware of the so-callled voodoo polls and appear on website etc.

    However, let’s take YouGov. they have been doing a commendable experiment using a rolling 50000 sample and publish a headline VI poll and their election forecast based on their new method.

    With such a large sample space, it surely is possible to release un tainted info, just showing the people’s preferences. Including the “dont knows” and “wont votes”. I don’t want to Yougov to reallocate don’t knows. I want to know how many people are still undecided. i also want to know how many people are saying they are “none of the above”. I know I can get this data if i Trawl through the rawe data they publish. But my argument is that I think this raw “OPINION POLL” – becuase that is what it is – would be as useful barometer of public option too.

  24. For under 45’s turnout there should be a couple different surges if turnout is high.

    University towns and places with lots of university students should see high numbers across the day as some universities have finished their term, and those that are still in session have variable lecture hours.

    Places without that should see surges at lunch hour, and after 6 pm as they finish work.

  25. On the drinking point: I’m in my 20s, bit of a stereotypical ‘yuppie’ in many respects. Drank at uni, don’t anymore. I know many like me. I don’t really know the explanation for it. But much of it could be medical – so many people I know are on antidepressants, which you generally can’t drink with (or you get a lot worse – there are interactions).

    Not the most cheery topic. Then again neither is the election….

  26. I don’t know if this means anything … but

    I work at a university (major northern redbrick). The university has seemed dead all day, hardly a student in sight. Around now, I usually see them from my office, streaming to the student’s union for lunch. But today it seems eerily quiet …

    All at the polling stations? Perhaps some have caught a train home to vote, followed by a long weekend?

    Myself, I couldn’t drag myself out to vote before work. I’ll do it once I’ve got home and had my tea.

  27. @Ken

    Yes, I got an early insight into the economics of bike snatching at Oxford, where it was rife, having lost a couple of bikes myself. Regarding hydrogen stations, I can’t remember if I told you or someone else, but just in case, apparently they did some surveys, and it seems the tipping point for people considering switching to hydrogen is to have two stations within a reasonable distance.

    Then they did network analysis and worked out you could achieve this for most peeps with just 65 carefully-sited stations. Checking, I discovered we are quietly moving towards that and will already have over 40 in a few years time.

    My view is that eventually we might use surplus wind power to electrolyse water to produce hydrogen…

  28. The Young and Booze!

    My two are 20 and 17: both highly disapproving of their mother and father’s lifestyle re drinking, as a generation I would compare their moral attitude to drink as akin to the change in sexual morality between the Georgians and the Victorians. Certainly my wife and I are constantly lectured about the demon drink: given that my wife is a northern Irish woman from the catholic tradition and I am Welsh, and certainly not from the Methodist tradition, and we are both baby boomers (I think), Ideas of students raucously enjoying the generosity of grape or grain belong to our memories of our youth rather than a reflection of the current 18 to 24 generation.

  29. Since I posted a “Progressive Alliance” tactical voting link I should balance that with CONkip Alliance tactical voting advice.

    To keep it simple for Kippers no fancy spreadsheets just put an X in the Conservatives box – it’s not impossible Corbyn heads up some kind of minority govt/coalition and although it’s a soundbite you what that would mean!!

  30. More sustained reports of higher youth turnout coming in. This time in Tamworth and Canterbury.

    Hey it’s just anecdotal but there is definitely a trend.

  31. @TREVOR

    That Chairman Mayo gets the boot?

  32. I’ve done a bit of research on turnout. Those hoping that high turnout will favour Labour may be disappointed. There have been 9 GE since 1945 where turnout as a % of population went up compared to the previous election. On 8 of those occasions the Tory total votes went up, and in 6 of the 9 Tory seats went up. The last occasion when Tory seats went down was 1992, when they got the highest total votes of any UK party ever.

  33. Further off-topic speculation on the youth and drinking: I wonder if the proliferation of screen-based entertainment is a factor.

  34. I went to vote earlier. It was deserted. There was me, the Presiding, officer and two clerks. We all had the same surname.

    This almost certainly points to a huge victory for the Wells party.

  35. DrMibbles – who is telling you this stuff? I’m not saying you’re wrong but I’d like to know the source before judging its validity.

  36. @DRMIBBLES

    What accounts on twitter are you following to get this info?

  37. Pete,

    Appreciate the point you’re making. But back then things were different – the generational gap of tory vs labour was not so great. Now it’s enormous. So not very comparable in my view.

  38. Trevor my parents live in the constituency hence I asked – they both voted remain but will have voted Tory today. I think a key concern for them and a lot of other people living in the area is the “garden tax” which as you say might up the Cons vote.

    I do however expect Vince to get back in as he was quite a popular MP and it was a big shock when he lost last time out. If he does then it’s a shame for Tania Matthews who s very likeable and has by all accounts been very good as a local MP.

  39. Re: drink

    I should add… Drink these days is EXPENSIVE. Many boomers can afford it, but in the city where I live, a lot of students avoid going out in the city because can’t afford it. And rent, bills are expensive so they don’t have the disposable income. The older peeps often have little idea of what it’s now like for the young, though it would take much thought to figure it out.

  40. @AW

    When myself and my wife went to vote this morning, there was my cousin as one of the clerks, so we also shared a victory for the Kennedys :)

  41. wouldn’t take…

  42. In the town I live the only people I see in bars these days is boomers living it large and giving themselves liver disease. The number of 25’s I see out drinking is non-existent.

  43. The Tamworth anecdote was from a racing tips twitter account that was retweeted by Mike Smithson – it smacks of someone trying to increase their twitter following rather than anything else.

  44. @ STADIUS – maybe “Loud Labourites” have become “Shy Socialists” especially final year students who won’t benefit from free fees but are about to hit the job market as we negotiate Brexit and UK needs to keep companies and employers in the UK (will jacking corporation tax help that)!?

    The flip from receiving tax payer money to working and having to pay tax (hopefully do to having a job!) does tend to change a student’s political views!

    UK employment rate is 75% (incredibly high both historically and internationally) – lots of people too busy to complete online surveys or phone polls…
    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/employment-rate

  45. @ Anthony

    Don’t tell me…. you live in the Wells constiuency :}

  46. Lots of photos/reports on twitter of queues of young people lining up outside polling stations. Doesn’t look good for TM.

  47. Re station business anecdotes.

    If the station is only operating at around 50% of it’s capacity or similar then you will see huge variations in perceived busyness as a nation of the random way people turn up, even if you assume a straight poisson distribution. Since people don’t turn up independently (couples, groups of friends etc) the actual spikiness will be higher.

    Mine was deserted today (just me) but has been both busy and dead at the same time in previous elections. Or dead when I’ve turned up but then as I’m leaving 10 people (mostly apparently unrelated) turn up in a bunch.

  48. @ Trevor.

    Not sure I agree with the hypothesis of ‘once you start paying tax, you’re more likely to be a Tory!’ Just look at VI from 25-35, it’s still very Labour. A bit more Tory, true, but hard to link explicitly to economic factors. In any case I doubt the effect is as large as you suspect – after all most 18-24s are not at university. Less than half of young people even go to university – something like 40%. So most of that group will likely be in work.

    Anecdote: many of my friends (early-mid 20s) are higher rate taxpayers who are voting Labour. And since I started work I’ve only moved leftwards in my own views – and I earn more than my boomer-generation parents…

  49. Although I ended up a Civil specialist when I first went to the Bar I did a little of everything including criminal law. One of the most awful feelings was waiting in the robing room for a jury to return a verdict. I have often thought about the feeling on polling day waiting for the exit poll as being similar. Waiting for a jury feels almost like a form of the Schroedinger’s cat dichotomy, whilst you wait (although of course innocent until proven guilty) the defendant is both guilty and not guilty at one and the same time. The one thing that assuaged the feeling in respect of election day was the sense that the opinion polls had, in effect, tee’d you up for the result so the agony was less severe: not this year, I am totally bewildered and I get the feeling that those (nameless ones) who are writing about how good it is for their favoured party are, actually, just whistling in the dark to keep up their spirits. I know that they say it is better to light a candle than to curse the darkness, but I just can’t find the matches anywhere. This ennui is killing me; roll on 10:00 pm.

  50. What counts as the youth vote* in my village was out in force – polling station deserted apart from me and Mrs Exile.

    * Youth vote = under 65.

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