So, here goes – the eve of the election means we get the final call polls. We already got Opinium’s final poll yesterday and Ipsos MORI won’t be till tomorrow, but everyone else should be reporting today.

ICM have tended to show the strongest leads for the Conservatives during the campaign – their final poll for the Guardian continues that trend with topline figures of CON 46%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc), a Tory lead of twelve points. Fieldwork was yesterday and today. Note that these are preliminary figures and that ICM are continuing to collect data through the evening, so they will confirm final results later. The tables for the preliminary results are here.

ComRes for the Independent have final figures of CON 44%(-3), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was between Monday and today. Along with ICM ComRes tend to show the largest leads for the Conservatives, and the ten point lead is actually their lowest of the campaign. Tables are here.

Surveymonkey for the Sun report just a four point lead for the Conservatives: CON 42%(-2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Sunday to Tuesday and changes are from a week ago. Surveymonkey aren’t a BPC member so I don’t have more details, though we should be getting some later. Regular readers will remember that Surveymonkey polled at the last general election and got the Conservative lead right, albeit getting both main parties too low. There are more details of Surveymonkey’s approach here.

Panelbase have final figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1). Fieldwork was between Friday and today, and obviously shows no substantial change from their previous poll.

Kantar‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and today and shows a narrowing of the Tory lead to just five points – Kantar have previously tended to show larger leads. Note that there is a very minor methodology change here, Kantar have fixed the share of the 2017 vote coming from 2015 Conservative and Labour voters at 61% – I’m not sure exactly what that means, but it has only a minor effect anyway, increasing the Tory lead by one point. Tables are here.

YouGov‘s final poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%. Fieldwork was Monday to today. Minor method change here too – adding candidate names to the voting question, and reallocating don’t knows using past vote (which knocked down Labour support by just over a point). Full details here.

Survation‘s final poll (using their phone methodology, rather than their online one) has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 2%, GRN 2% – the one point Tory lead is the closest we’ve seen, though effectively the same as Survation’s last poll. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and tables are here.

BMG, who haven’t polled since back in 2016, have also put out a final poll. Their topline figures are CON 46%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%.


909 Responses to “Final eve-of-election polls”

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  1. no comments?

  2. Not yet

  3. Home straight! I feel sick/excited/glad it’s almost all over.

  4. AW please let me contribute! I’m nice :)

  5. 3rd

  6. At least the ComRes tables are final, not provisional, unlike ICM.

    Before turnout adjustment the figures are Con 40%, Lab 39% and not much of the subsequent change seems to be due to self-reported LTV (85% v 84% CTV)

  7. damn :(

  8. I have been hearing all day that the Tory vote is hardening, especially in the most unlikely place in the north.

  9. This site is creaking.

  10. Test

  11. Always does at this stage of a GE

  12. Test

  13. As might be expected, the website tends to fall over under the traffic the night before an election. I’ve slammed on as much caching as possible to try and keep it up, but it means comments won’t appear straight away. It isn’t you… it’s the website :)

  14. drmibbles

    “3rd”

    Don’t worry. I’m convinced you’ll be second.

  15. Roland Haines
    “I have been hearing all day that the Tory vote is hardening, especially in the most unlikely place in the north”

    From where?

  16. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-)
    LAB: 36% (-)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    (via @PanelbaseMD / 02 – 07 Jun)

  17. CON: 44% (-)
    LAB: 36% (-)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    (via @PanelbaseMD / 02 – 07 Jun)

  18. OLIVER (fpt)

    Yes, but before the adjustment elderly citizens age 65 and older make up only 20 percent of the polled electorate, a number way too small. Their share of the eligible voting population stood at 23 percent two years ago and they vote in much higher numbers than the average Brit.(78 percent elderly turnout compared with 66 percent across the board)

    I’m not say that there shouldn’t be any turnout adjustment, just pointing out the big difference it makes for some pollsters.

    Though it’s worth pointing out that the figures given are themselves only based on opinion polling. The turnout figures you quote are only based on MORI’s combined polling weighted to the final results and turnout:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2015?view=wide

    So using them to calibrate polling to has the danger of being a circular argument if MORI’s polling wasn’t accurate.

    There is one particular additional oddity with ICM. They separate out older voters into 65-74 and 75+. The 75+ group are wildly under-represented in the sample (38 have to be weighted up to 144). They also are almost all saying they are going to vote (97% – as opposed to an average of 76%!) and overwhelmingly Conservatives (62% v 12% Labour).

    If this small sample is unrepresentative of over-75s then the separate weighting for them will distort the overall percentages by a very large amount. And it’s likely that the those online in this age group probably are unrepresentative – they’re the last completely pre-digital cohort – those that have since learned will be atypical of over-75s in general.

    Splitting off the over-75s was only done by ICM since 2015, so it’s not really been tested in a general election before and it does have the potential to distort things.

    (Revised version of comment in last thread)

  19. Are we seeing herding?

  20. Error establishing a Database Connection!

  21. My prediction.

    Tories 45% 358 seats
    Labour 34% 217 seats
    Libs 8% 6 seats
    UKIP 4% 0 seats
    Green 2% 1 seat
    SNP 4 % 48 Seats
    Plaid 0.6% 2 seats
    N Ireland 18 seats.

    Tory Majority 66.

    Portillo moment – Nick Clegg falls to Labour.

    In Scotland Angus Robertson falls to the Tories.

  22. Anthony

    I am sure I speak for everyone when I say thank you for running this site, year in and year out.

  23. @ TIGERTANAKA – thank you from previous thread and Matt Singh FT piece!

  24. Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why do the polls which show higher Con leads appear in the non-Con papers and v.v. ICM – Guardian; ComRes – Indy; SurveyMonkey – Sun; YouGov – Times? Coincidence?

  25. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-)
    LAB: 36% (-)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    (via @PanelbaseMD / 02 – 07 Jun)

  26. if these are true did anything really change ? Some LibDem and Green vote went to Labour and that’s about it compared to the start of the campaign.

    Could the country have saved the money and the uncertainty and just extended TM for 5 more years ?!

  27. The wonders of democracy Spaceman

  28. anthony

    Please let me back in . I promise to be a good soldier.

  29. ICM & ComRes = Large Tory win

    Panelbase, Orb and one or two others = Much as before the GE. Perhaps a small increase in the majority

    YouGov, SurveyMonkey, Survation = Hung parliament territory.

    Go with whichever cheers you up the most!

  30. So from the 7 final polls that we have had so far, we ha e an average of:

    Con lead 6.57%
    Con: 43.2%
    Labour: 36.7%

  31. Trend is still Con down Lab up, but now painfully slowly.

  32. With the averages below put in this site’s calculator and you get a Con majority of 14.

  33. Philotes

    Re herding – yes I’m getting a sniff of that. After all, no-one wants to be completely wrong by themselves. Survation are living proof of that

  34. @FOREMISTER76
    Fellow Tory activists in various parts of England.

    Excuse any delay, I am permanently moderated.

  35. Sightly increased Con majority I reckon. Corbyn stay on and Corbyn-fever (which I now associate with the Muppets Treasure Island song Cabin Fever) dissipates.

  36. Here in Bishop Auckland the word is that the Tories are very optimistic,the local weekly paper from Teesdale in Barnard Castle where the current Labour MP Helen Goodman lives has run a series of adverts from Christopher Adams the Tory candidate, last time around Helen had an advert in the paper, this time nothing? Her core vote is in the East of the constituency but a very strong UKIP voters performance last time is up for grabs, don’t be surprised if this goes blue for the first time ever.

  37. I would also like to thank Anthony for running an excellent site, exerting considerable discipline, and, of course, making the most informative contributions.

    And I would also say thanks to all contributors for keeping me very well informed, showing remarkable knowledge about all kinds of things, and at times being very entertaining. It has made the campaign much more enjoyable.

    Early to bed, now

  38. EMMA IN BRIGHTON

    “Home straight! I feel sick/excited/glad it’s almost all over.”

    Is Caroline Lucas going to win? – Assuming you are really in Brighton.

  39. Keep shovelling more coal Anthony

  40. Very little movement in these final polls.

  41. I think it’s worth setting out where the pollsters are at the minute, albeit that some will release their final polls soon, while others have done so already.

    Con Lead
    0
    1
    2 Survation
    3
    4 YouGov, and Survey Monkey
    5 Ipsos Mori
    6
    7 Opinium………………(Overall average =7)
    8 Panelbase
    9 ORB
    10 Com Res and Kantar
    11
    12 ICM

  42. My prediction

    Con 312
    Lab 263
    Lib 4
    UKIP 0
    SNP 52?
    Green 1
    NI 18

    Just because I can’t imagine anything worse for the country, may should never be forgiven for calling this election

  43. @ Sceptic Voter – quite so, all the campaigning, hand wringing and arguing really amounts to next to nothing in persuading people.

    @Nickp – surely just a regression to the mean ? Once the early shift from the Green’s and Lib Dems to Labour had taken place and a small leakage of the marginal Tory vote everything else is just noise.

    I think there are two questions to follow in the next couple of days in the event of a Tory victory…. How many seats will the SNP hold in Scotland as their record comes under more scrutiny and perhaps an aversion to having a second referendum; and how few seats will the LibDems end up with ?

  44. Although if you put the above averages in Electoral Calculas, its a Con majority of 44.

    So looking at an average Con majority of 14-44

    Probably likeliest result, but bad news for TM.

  45. @ Philotes

    In betting markets Yes.

    Odds continuing to shorten on a CON overall majority atm.

    On FX, GBP Up against both USD and EURO,
    not be much, but still ahead.

  46. What does everyone think the head of ICM is hinting at ?

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/with_replies

    Martin Boon? @martinboon 1h1 hour ago
    More
    Shortly, there will be a loud KABOOM.

    Martin Boon? @martinboon 28m28 minutes ago
    More
    Replying to @chrisdeerin
    Sorry, but I’m really blown away myself.

    Martin Boon? @martinboon 11m11 minutes ago
    More
    I hope I’m not feeding the hungry sharks, but if what I’m told is true…..

    ???

  47. Welcome back! Poor site, bursting under the weight of us old bores! ;-)

    Ok, so it looks like essentially no movement in the polls coming into the last day. A rather unexciting conclusion to one of the most dramatic (in polling terms) election campaigns ever!

  48. @ssimon . In regards to nearest prediction I agree with those who suggest that only first predictions should count as I’ve updated mine three times I would be embarrassed to have fluke it at the last attempt!

  49. @ MARTIN U – well spotted! Surely you are not suggesting any editorial input to methodology tweaks in order to provide the kind of numbers an editor would like to see in order to sell newspapers?!?

    That is obviously nonsense but it does make people more cynical than ourselves contemplate that the polling company that provides info to the Times has done an excellent job in generating headline worthy news and possibly ensuring complacent CONs get out and vote!?!? :)
    Guardian readers should conclude it’s pointless voting and simply roll themselves another joint :)

  50. On the YouGov panel, we are currently looking at a Labour minority government propped up by LibDem, SNP and Green, giving a total of 326 seats.

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