Opinium have put out their final poll of the election campaign. Their final figures are CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was between Sunday and today, so it is also the first poll we’ve seen with fieldwork conducted after the terrorist attack in London Bridge, though there’s no significant change from Opinium’s previous poll at the weekend. Full details are here.

This is the first poll to be badged as a final poll. Survation put out their final poll for Good Morning Britain this morning (showing topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 3% – tabs here) but final poll for GMB is not necessarily the same as final poll. We shall, no doubt, have a flurry of final polls from ICM, ComRes, YouGov, Panelbase, Kantar and others tomorrow, MORI on Thursday.

I mentioned yesterday that Ipsos MORI normally do their final poll on polling day itself, and got a few comments about whether this is allowed. Yes – it is. The rules on election day is that you cannot publish an exit poll (or any poll that’s based on the opinions of people who have already voted) while polls are still open. It’s perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened. MORI do their fieldwork on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday like everyone else’s final poll… they publish on Thursday because they partner with the Evening Standard who publish around midday, rather than overnight.


1,166 Responses to “Opinium’s final poll: CON 43%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  1. Opinium’s poll looks pretty consistent with expectations: Labour in the mid-30s, Tories in the low-to-mid-40s.

    It would be a reasonable result for both parties I think, Corbyn having demonstrated his broader appeal and thus retaining leadership, and TM gaining her own, stronger, mandate to push ahead with Brexit.

    Ultimately much less change than we expected in mid-April though.

  2. Plotting where May and Corbyn have been is a snapshot of weeks ago.Its where they go tomorrow that will be of interest.

  3. @ brilliant smith I can think of dozens of reasons for not voting forCorbyn but being monitored by Special Branch those experts in real dangers to democracy wouldn’t be in the top 50

  4. I wonder if the Sun and other right wing tabloids have saved their juicier anti-Corbyn articles until this late stage of the campaign? I expect so and it wouldn’t surprise me if there has been some collusion and planning, even orchestration with the Tory High Command on timing and content. Probably wouldn’t have bothered if it had been the expected walkover.

    Predictable, below the belt and probably distorted drivel but there’s a lesson for Labour here, and one that they need to re-learn yet again. Even though Corbyn has fought a good, energetic and noble campaign, eschewing all personal attacks on his opponents and concentrating instead on his party’s solidly social democratic manifesto, he was forever a hostage to exactly the sort of fortune about to be poured like thick and toxic treacle all over both his and his party’s head. He has form and baggage that should have ruled him completely out of contention for being a Labour leader. Politics is a bruising bear pit and you have to box very, very clever to win from a centre left platform. The coalition of voters is there but if you frighten the horses they go running, quite often reluctantly, to Tory nurse.

    Was ever thus. Corbyn is a good and decent man but we offered the Tories a sitting duck when we thrust him into all of this. The Tories and their powerful allies are about to provide the coup de grace that I always feared. I can almost sense their mouths drooling.

    We’re toast on June 8th, as I always feared and knew we would be. Let’s hope Jeremy keeps the flame burning for battles and hopefully victories another day. I’ve come to admire the old boy, but we’re going down to a bad one with him, I fear. I sense we’ve just been holed below the waterline by the Sun.

    Man the lifeboats.

  5. Social media to an extent counters MM Tory bias.

    And without being partisan, many of us consider
    Corbyn has got off a little lightly in this area.

    Up to the electorate now.

  6. Shame they didn’t spend the time monitoring terrorists.

    You can put all the laws you want in place but without £££ they are unenforceable.

  7. They’ve been throwing this kind of terrorist-sympathising nonsense at Corbyn for months. His approval ratings have improved enormously in that time. People know what the Mail and Sun are like.

    Broadcast media, new media, and social media is the LAB strategy. They are consciously ignoring the newspapers. So far, it’s worked very well for them.

  8. I’m not really that bothered where TM and JC go tomorrow, but I am mildly interested in where they go on Friday morning.

  9. Didn’t Special Branch monitor Stephen Lawrence’s mum and initiate an undercover op? As wells spending a lot of time and money trying to pin the blame on Hillsborough victims.

    Corbyn is usually on the right sight of any argument – now it just remains to see how many people are there with him on Friday.

  10. I suspect everyone anticipated the press coming out with a final flourish of negative press for Corbyn, but I do wonder whether it’s going to have much impact on VI. It may backfire given the dissonance between Corbyn’s TV appearances and the negative hyperbole piled on him since 2015.

    If they want to sway the election to the Tories, they’d probably be better served attacking Corbyn’s policies, which they’ve notoriously failed to do throughout, to the detriment of the Tory campaign.

  11. Trigguy
    I went to Kings Norton Primary School, and my parents lived there until recently. I have caught the train from Kings Norton station many times. Small world!

    I saw my first lamp-post posters today in Warley. All Labour except 1 UKIP. I’ve still to see any in windows.

    This campaign reminds me of 1992, as I’ve said before. Either I or the triumphant Corbynistas will have egg on the face on Friday morning.

    I would say what I thought about Diane Abbott as potential Home Secretary, but it might be considered partisan, so I’ll let The Sun say it for me.

  12. CROSSBAT11

    Wow, you really over-estimate the power of the print media. Their circulation levels are dire.

    70% of people get their news from the broadcast media, which is bound by impartiality rules. These tabloid hysterics are preaching to the their already converted readership.

  13. Rumours about SurveyMonkey poll showing Conservatives ahead by four points on 42 percent,, Labour 38.

  14. As previously mentioned I expected this before now.

    The reason for it’s late arrival.. Tory internal
    polling stronger than expected?.

    Or you could draw a different conclusion.

    However I have no doubt that certain editors have been
    given a very good indication of what private polling
    is saying.

  15. I do wish people would stop declaring with such certainty that ‘it’s going to be close’ or ‘Tory landslide’. Nobody knows, not even the polling companies, who are miles out of each other this time round.

    I’m going to have to stop looking at the comments section on Thursday night for a few years because the ‘correct’ half of the know-it-all section will be harping on about their cleverness!

    Anyway… I’ve not noticed much discussion in these parts about the huge number of people who have joined the Labour Party since JC’s candidacy. At the last election there were fewer than 200k members but there are now apparently 517k.

    Discounting Northern Ireland, that’s an average of 500 paid-up Corbynites per parliamentary seat. Significant? Obviously they will no doubt be spread unevenly but I’d be fascinated to know where they all are and what their impact will be. Add to that perhaps a similar number who are happy to see him lead the party but didn’t feel the need to actually join.

  16. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3739747/theresa-may-poll-terrorism-election-london-bridge/

    Sun Surveymonkey Con 42 Lab 38. PM May 55 Corbyn 45

    I know not part of polling council but got the gap right last time. Best PM ratings an eye opener.

  17. @Crossbat11

    Why should the electoral choices of the left be subject to the BS and tosh of a certain chunk of the media?

    Most LOC voters have a firm view of those rags, and I think the lurid rubbish they specialise is in effect counter-productive.

  18. @ Dr Nibbled

    I’m not a fan of the Sun but I suspect this story will be all over the news tomorrow.

  19. @ Oliver

    The figures you are quoting are the respondents’ statement of their likelihood to vote. Weightings are then applied to this data.

    So a poll in which 75% of the respondents in a particular group say they are certain to vote is not based upon a 75% turnout model for that demographic group.

  20. @Crossbath, I guess you weren’t around for Nightmare on Kinnock Street. The right-wing scum tabloids will do that to any Labour leader at the end of a campaign. Unless you totally sell out to them the way Blair did to Murdoch. As far as holding it till the end and orchestrating it with the Tory high command, I’m shocked, shocked to find out that gambling is going on in this establishment.

  21. All to play for – this could backfire for the right wing press, transparently playing their hand.

    Might get some core vote out, but we’ll see.

  22. @Crossbat11 @Trigguy

    It was better in the days when the Redditch Road was swamped with lamp post posters. I always thought they added a bit of awareness to elections, even if they were a bugger to put up.

    KN was my stomping ground too – although to be fair, Kings Norton Ward* used to be part of Selly Oak. It was only later on that it gained a bit of Hall Green and then was moved to Northfield.

    Richard is a really great MP, and it’s a pity that I can’t vote for him, having moved out of the area.

    *Yes, no apostrophe in Kings Norton. I blame James II who spelled it that way in the charter…

  23. “Was ever thus. Corbyn is a good and decent man but we offered the Tories a sitting duck when we thrust him into all of this.”

    Crossbat, it’s a bit rich [excuse the expression] to blame me for “thrusting” him into it it. I did no such thing.

  24. @Pete B

    “I went to Kings Norton Primary School”

    I’ll be going there on Thursday to vote! But I only settled in Birmingham about 20 years ago, and our kids went to Bourneville school before we moved out this way.

  25. @ TB

    Got any tips for us?

  26. 42-38 would give the Tories only a couple of seats more than they. Pretty much explains why they decided to run the smear article now.

  27. BANTAMS

    What, Corbyn gave a speech 25 years ago and some people in the crowd were muslim? It’s hardly incendiary material. All this kind of nonsense has been run over a million times before.

    Broadcast media will be following usual protocol tomorrow, prior to election day. This is a dead cat they wanted to throw out on Monday but couldn’t due to the London attacks.

  28. TB

    Tories were 7 points ahead in 2015, so being 4 points ahead doesn’t give them more seats.

  29. On the new young Corbyn enthusiasts, are we saying that a very large number of people who haven’t previously taken any notice of politics have suddenly decided that Corbyn offers hope for the future? Whilst those with longer political memories are less hopeful?

    (Or that offered an end to tuition fees – something worth a fortune – you could hardly blame them for being enthusiastic. They’d vote Trump if it meant getting that monkey off their backs.)

  30. @ Crossbat11

    ‘Corbyn is a good and decent man but we offered the Tories a sitting duck when we thrust him into all of this.”

    After what Corbyn has experienced over the last two years, I imagine he will survive the Sun’s hyperbole and spin. Tbh I am pretty open mouthed at his resilience and energy.. but I suppose that his conviction that he could make the world a better place, puts steel in his spine.

  31. @ crossbat11
    ” I sense we’ve just been holed below the waterline by the Sun. ”

    Oh I wouldn’t get so worked up about it, can’t find any details now but i distinctly remember reading a study after the ’92 election that discovered that an notinsignifican numberrof sun readers thought their paper had supported Labour

  32. The big news in that SurveyMonkey poll isn’t the narrowing of the lead, but Corbyns ratings as best prime minister. 45% is the highest ever by quite a way.

  33. I really don’t think this will backfire,
    whether you agree with it or not.

    Very surprised it has been left this late in the campaign,
    and that may be the more interesting story.

    Why so late?.

  34. @Andy Williams

    “These big Corbyn rallies aren’t purely political. They are more akin to music festivals at which he appears in between acts.

    And free music festivals attract lots of young people – not lots of Labour voters.”

    ———-

    I don’t know if you’ve been to any music festivals recently, but there can be an awful lot of boomers too. They’re the ones with the dosh after all. I know this because they seem very keen to bump into me as I’m doing a bit of video…

  35. @drimbles. It’s not the margin but the number. Labour would also get a few more seats. Ran it through electoral calculus.

  36. @ Dr Nibbles

    Probably right but it’s the perception in politics that affects thought processes in voters.

  37. @Dr Mibbles

    I take your point about circulation and readership of these rags declining, but most of the TV and Radio media outlets will pick up on the Sun story too. Unfair, I know, but a cold reality.

    @CMJ

    “Why should the electoral choices of the left be subject to the BS and tosh of a certain chunk of the media?”

    It’s the electoral choices of the country I’m more concerned about. It’s a non-sequitor to think that the alternative to Corbyn is some sort of “red Tory Blairesque” stooge. It’s one of my boring mantras, I know, but you have to give centrist voters permission to vote Labour. Corbyn was a risk precisely because I think he denies too many voters that essential permission.

    Anecdote alert, I know, but I had a conversation with a woman I work with today. Aged 42, with a young child, astonishingly she had never voted in a General Election before. For some reason, she was determined to vote this time. She was unsure which way to vote and had no previous affiliation to any particular party, nor any great interest in politics. She said she was not impressed with May at all and her main concern was stopping the creeping privatisation of the NHS. So far, so good, but guess what? She couldn’t get past Corbyn and the the thing that she remembered most about the campaign was Abbott’s disastrous interview on police numbers. Potential Labour voting crying out for permission. None forthcoming, I’m afraid.

    I suspect there may be millions like her out there too.

  38. The Sun’s attempt to bury the bad news in that poll makes it a tabloid masterpiece. I’m impressed.

  39. Shocker! Theresa May once walked down Whitechapel Road. The same street where Jack the Ripper hung out.

  40. Two points the the last SurveyMonkey Poll has CON 6% ahead so a two percent drop.

    More importantly are the closeness of the best PM figures.

  41. @ DrMibbles

    Yes I noticed that PM rating too. It’s probably the most interesting detail we’ve seen from the poll, and I’m not surprised the Sun has tried to gloss away from it.

  42. Have I missed something, or as we go into the final polls has there been a complete lack of marginals polls during this campaign? Given that the outcome would seem to be dependent on the balance between previous UKippers voting Conservative this time around in marginals versus the turnout of younger voters who may vote Labour in those marginals, it is a puzzle that pollsters have not done some marginals polling to avoid egg-on-face syndrome on Friday. It seems that either ICM and Comres at one end of the spectrum, or Survation and YouGov at the other end are going to suffer some egg on face come Friday morning.
    I suppose it’s down to funding for polls. No sponsor has paid for marginals polls? I seem to remember that Ashcroft was one of the main marginal’s pollsters in 2015 and I haven’t seen any mention of Ashcroft polls this time around.

  43. Re: The Sun

    I thought, “Is that all you’ve got”.

    Unless they have something else for Thursday I’d say this time it won’t be the sun that won it, Its not like they can say Labour are going to ban page 3 anymore.

    Maybe the late tabloid induced Tory swing won’t happen this time

  44. @DrMibbles

    ‘Wow, you really over-estimate the power of the print media. Their circulation levels are dire.

    70% of people get their news from the broadcast media, which is bound by impartiality rules. These tabloid hysterics are preaching to the their already converted readership.”

    ———-

    As we have discussed on here before, you can’t just go by their print circulation but the millions who read their content online. Plus, the broadcast media tend to take their cue for the news of the day from the print media. This is their way of being “impartial”…

  45. @LEWBLEW

    While I appreciate the point you are making about hundreds of Corbynistas in GB constituencies, just a reminder that there are around 2,000 members & registered Labour supporters in Northern Ireland – a figure that shot up from a few hundred after Corbyn became leader.
    While we can’t currently contest elections under the Labour banner, the party in Northern Ireland intends to take UK Labour to the High Court in Belfast if it does not agree to lift the ban on candidates here.

  46. @BANTAM

    Really?

    That Corbyn spoke at a rally by the Muslim Council of Britain attended by 25K people, 300 of whom were hardcore Islamists who were disowned by the other 24,700?

    I mean why on earth would any sensible media pay attention to such utter garbage?

  47. Some observations of my own.

    Think Tories will win but with a slightly improved majority. I have roughly a dozen seats in mind where I think Labour will lose to the Tories and 3 or 4 they might pick up from elsewhere. 35-37 vote share and holding on to 215 MP’s is a loss, but a respectable loss, one that no-one here would have dreamed of when the election was called. May will end up with a majority of 30-something and ultimately the election will feel like a total waste of time. May will emerge from it weaker and will probably not be prime minister for long afterwards. I am sure that many in the EU will look at May wasting a 20+ point lead and see weakness to be exploited.

    I also think that the youth vote is very strong for Corbyn, on a different level to both Brexit and GE 2015. I have not seen a candidate enthuse young people who would be otherwise apathetic to such an extent in my life. Whilst I don’t think it will be enough to change the overall results, this demographic cohort that is coalescing around Corbyn will dominate British politics a few decades from now, even counting for some of them to getting more right wing as they get older the sheer overwhelming support for a very left-wing version of Labour from this age group means I can’t see how the Tories will be able to win majorities in the medium and long term without seriously changing the makeup of the franchise and moving away from universal suffrage. Reminds me a lot of the Bernie Sanders support in the US or support for Scottish independence.

    Finally I can say with some confidence that Corbyn will stay on as Labour leader for the time being, at least if they reach 35% of the vote. At all these big rallies members are being signed up to the Labour party, apparently the figure is in the tens of thousands according to two very well placed sources I have, and that after the election a big membership recruitment drive will take place. They aim to bring in a few hundred thousand members to drive home the futility of challenging him to any on the Labour right who might be thinking of it. Corbyn will stay until a left wing successor is ready and waiting to take over – people to keep an eye on are Raynor, Long-Bailey, Lewis and Burgon.

  48. @DrMibbles

    If you doubt this, look how the media drove down Tory VI in the Omnishambles era because not happy about Levinson. Then look at how, once press started focusing on immigration, it became the most salient topic in polling.

  49. For The Sun, the Mail and the Telegraph to come out with all this garbage seems to me to show how worried they are. And I really can’t see it making much difference anyway. Everyone already has their perception of Corbyn. There are those who think he is a terrorist and those who think he is wonderful and the answer to all our problems. Neither side are going to be swayed by these sort of lurid stories. And even those in the centre already know what others think of him and muse already be taking into account their views on which is the correct view of Corbyn.

  50. @Dexter

    Its a dead cat to distract from the story on the front page of the Telegraph and Mirror

    Quite shameless on all sides, using terrorist attacks for political purposes. Labour with their focus on police numbers, the Tories with tomorrows Sun/ Mail, etc.

    I think someone said it the other night, politics is not for pansies…why I hate politics.

    Think I may just sit this one out, no point voting for people with these sort of morals.

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