Opinium have put out their final poll of the election campaign. Their final figures are CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was between Sunday and today, so it is also the first poll we’ve seen with fieldwork conducted after the terrorist attack in London Bridge, though there’s no significant change from Opinium’s previous poll at the weekend. Full details are here.

This is the first poll to be badged as a final poll. Survation put out their final poll for Good Morning Britain this morning (showing topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 3% – tabs here) but final poll for GMB is not necessarily the same as final poll. We shall, no doubt, have a flurry of final polls from ICM, ComRes, YouGov, Panelbase, Kantar and others tomorrow, MORI on Thursday.

I mentioned yesterday that Ipsos MORI normally do their final poll on polling day itself, and got a few comments about whether this is allowed. Yes – it is. The rules on election day is that you cannot publish an exit poll (or any poll that’s based on the opinions of people who have already voted) while polls are still open. It’s perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened. MORI do their fieldwork on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday like everyone else’s final poll… they publish on Thursday because they partner with the Evening Standard who publish around midday, rather than overnight.


1,166 Responses to “Opinium’s final poll: CON 43%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  1. @PatrickBrian

    “he’ll have a lot of sticky stuff over his metaphorical face…”

    Best not ask.

  2. See what the dont get is if labour are on the march why aren’t ICM spotting it.. the gap should be closing even if not to yougov proportions but it’s not ..it’s holding in double figures.

  3. Paul Croft/Rich

    Having watched and listened to a lot of BBC programmes I do find 5live tend to veer towards the left whereas the others are relatively balanced.

    I think possibly it is inevitable that the government will get a harder going over than the opposition, or at least it may appear so, simply because they are defending a record and the opposition are not.

  4. @ Philotes

    WHICH POLLS SHOULD WE BELIEVE???

    None of them. Average them out.

  5. @ Alberttatlock

    “See what the dont get is if labour are on the march why aren’t ICM spotting it.. the gap should be closing even if not to yougov proportions but it’s not ..it’s holding in double figures.”

    Do you mean, why hasn’t the ICM gap closed as much as say YG and Survation over the campaign? I’d like to know that too!

  6. @SSimon

    My revised prediction, having just placed a bet on the LibDems achieving 10 or fewer seats, and the SNP managing 46 or fewer. My thinking is that I can’t lose on both, but I can win on both.

    Con 44% 332 seats
    Lab 37% 244 seats
    LDs 7% 7 seats
    UKIP 3% 0 seats
    Greens 2% 1 seat
    SNP 4% 44 seats
    Plaid 1% 3 seats
    Others 1% 1 seat ( Speaker )
    NI 18 seats

  7. Maybe because they place less weight on the younger demographics?

  8. Perhaps a touch of swingback?

  9. Martinw

    Yeah. I know they have different models etc but I would have thought the gap would still be less than double digits now if there was some massive swing going on. I,m not saying it should be down in survation territory but it’s stayed stubbornly high so why are they not spotting anything at all.

  10. Canada

    I received this email from a sibling, who lives in a safe Tory seat in Southern England

    Which one ?

  11. ICM’s turnout model does two things.

    First, it down-weights self-reported voting intention to 2015 levels.

    This impacts people under 45, who are more likely to vote LAB.

    But the double effect of this, is that it effectively provides a ‘hard cieling’ of LAB support, because even if LAB support in the under-30’s was 90% and 100% to turn out, CON would still be ahead.

    It’s just a terrible model to use when the election dynamics are so clearly different to 2015.

  12. @RICH

    Seems like MoE effect. Most polls show the same as they were a few days ago so I’m guessing people have now made up their minds and are waiting to vote, barring, of course, significant changes in the rest of todays polls, which may indicate either further movement of swing back.

  13. @sssimon,

    No leave as is! Thanks!!

  14. Actually, over the last few polls ICM have been showing tories dropping.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/may/08/general-election-2017-poll-tracker-who-is-in-the-lead

    Hover over dots to get icm and others in bold.

  15. Recent Welsh independence poll out by YouGov

    36% YES if Tory Majority
    26% YES if Labour majority

    Welsh speakers and 18-30 year old range > 50% YES – with Tory win

  16. @drmibbles,

    What are you going to do if ICM is right tmr? I hope you’re about and fielding questions. :-)

  17. The longer the tories have ruled since the 1980s the stronger devolution support and eventually independence support gets in Scotland and Wales hmm

  18. Ian

    Is it relevant which sibling he is talking about? ^ ^

  19. ICM’s methodology does seem a bit ugly in the way sticking-plaster weightings ripple through their dataset, even if it ultimately arrives at about the right numbers tomorrow.

    Given how Brexit and the collapse of UKIP may be uniquely affecting this election, it may be that another approach was justified.

    Having said that, I’m not saying that approach is the YouGov model. All companies would be wise to be trialling parallel models alongside their published results to try and crack this.

  20. Rich

    Drmibbles will be having a lie down in a dark room and the bloke in charge of yougov will be leaving the country

  21. Rich

    Will be interesting to see if the other polls widen the lead slightly ie by 1% as Opinium and ICM have now done. That would then hint at some swingback which would not be fully picked up (if true) until the actual polls.

  22. EDEYRN
    ‘The longer the tories have ruled since the 1980s the stronger devolution support and eventually independence support gets in Scotland and Wales hmm’

    That’s as false and misleading a statement as you’ll ever read.

    SNP rise came almost exclusively at the expense of Labour in Scotland. Clearly huge momentum during Blair/Brown era.

  23. ICM Poll based on 1,532 interviews

    This would yield a Conservative majority of 96, with 373 seats in their possession compared to 199 for Labour (which might be seen by party insiders as a decent outcome). Not so much for the Liberal Democrats though, predicted to drop to only two seats on this modelling.

  24. @ DRMIBBLES

    So ICM have picked up some tightening (from a 22 point lead to a 12 point lead)? But their model won’t let them pick up changes specifically from young people?

  25. Other companies may well have models as well but still at the under wraps stage.

  26. Judah
    Summed up very nicely.

    Which pollster is going to be closest is guess work,nothing else.
    It should be a fascinating night!

  27. Martinw, I think he means icm may be less likely to capture sudden shifts if they are occurring, in that group.

  28. Had a quick look at Ashcroft’s polls for a few constituencies. What seems to be happening in his models is that the Labour vote is increasing, even in areas where tactical voters should switch to the Liberals.

    My guess is that this won’t happen and we will see a large amount of tactical voting – with the Liberals making several gains as a result, as Labour voters all go to them.

    Areas where the Liberals aren’t in a chance of winning, however, may well see a strong swing to Labour. I would expect that Labour will come out of this election in second place in a lot of places where previously the Liberals held that position – particularly in the South East.

  29. Oh Crikey.

    I just read the ICM data.

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2017_guardian_prediction_PRELIM_1500.pdf

    — They weight everything precisely to 2015 turnout, even though all pollsters are picking up an increase in self-report turnout among the under 45’s this time who are far more likely to vote LAB
    — They also weight according to past voting behaviour, again this disadvantages LAB
    — They additionally re-allocate don’t knows in favour of CON (even though in this election DK’s have been breaking for LAB by a large margin)

    The end result of this, is they turn a near dead-heat into a 12 point lead. I’m sorry but that is just ludicrous.

  30. @ CLOUDSPOTTER

    No…it’s going to be a fascinating 30 seconds, until we get the exit poll

  31. I expect that if the election is called early Friday Morning in the favorite of the Tory party. Then I’ll see a message on this from @DRMIBBLES saying that the election result is wrong as the young vote wasn’t took into account and Yougov’s model is the correct result.

  32. Martinw, by down weighting their impact more.

  33. I still say a Tory majority of 30-50 seats.

  34. According to Martin Boon

    A 12-point victory for the Conservatives is ICM’s preliminary call on our final poll […] We should note that ICM continues to interview, aiming for another c.500 interviews by the end of the day. The numbers might change, but we would not expect them to do so by much.

    It’s a bit unusual to do this (suppose lots of Labour supporters now get in from work and it alters in Lab favourk) though in reality they shouldn’t change much. But it’s too early to talk of swingback as the final figures could easily end up a point or two different simply because of random variation.

  35. Drmibbles, don’t feed the trolls and thanks for your work and posts.

  36. DM @SSSIMON

    The current speaker is one of the 2 independents shown in the YouGov daily report.

    He does NOT lose the job automatically. Given that he was previously a Con and that his former colleagues tried to get him removed, the idea of Lab wanting rid of him is risible. In any event, should a Lab government be formed, they would be a minority and could not afford to lose an MP lightly.

  37. MARTINW

    They really can’t go much below a 10 point CON lead using their model. It’s almost impossible unless everyone under 40 were 100% voting Lab.

  38. @drmibbles,

    I think the lead is about 8-9 points, working majority 50 or so. So my own view weights down ICM a bit.

    Rich

  39. Drmibbles

    You should get on the phone to them, offer your expertise and analysis of why they have no idea what they are doing and they must be forecasting a labour win and nothing else will do. I,m sure they will be pleased to hear from you.

  40. Deathly silence from the usual labour luvvies and I see Simply Red Hucknall – a life long labour supporter – has come out to say voting for Corbyn will be a disaster.

    This site has put blinkers on and clung to the yougov model.

  41. Thats better than clinging to Mick Hucknall.

  42. Dr Mibbles. Ignore the know it alls. Lets see what happens

  43. And I am definitely a luvvie.

  44. Why doesn’t
    Hucknall like Corbyn.. isn’t he far enough to the left for Micks tastes ?

  45. CONFUSED

    It’s isn’t about clinging to a model. It’s about if you believe turnout in the younger age brackets will be higher or lower than in 2015.

    If you think it will – these polls hugely under-estimate LAB
    If you think it won’t – ICM is correct

    It’s a simple question. Which do you believe to be true? That is the crux of the polling issue.

  46. @Albert,

    Maybe he thinks after all the spending commitments with Labour, that money will be too tight to mention?

  47. I,m just waiting for Tony Blair to endorse TM. I bet she’s praying he’s out of the country at the moment and we don’t hear from him today.

  48. Betting market moving now with odds of a no majority going today from 4.8:1 out to 6:1.

    Selling coming in further down the seat majority bucket for tories pushing odds lower.

    100-125 now in play dropping from 9:1 to 5.6:1.

  49. @confused,

    I went 50-74, 4-1. Decent odds and smack bang in the middle of th current average of the polls.

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