Opinium have put out their final poll of the election campaign. Their final figures are CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was between Sunday and today, so it is also the first poll we’ve seen with fieldwork conducted after the terrorist attack in London Bridge, though there’s no significant change from Opinium’s previous poll at the weekend. Full details are here.

This is the first poll to be badged as a final poll. Survation put out their final poll for Good Morning Britain this morning (showing topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 3% – tabs here) but final poll for GMB is not necessarily the same as final poll. We shall, no doubt, have a flurry of final polls from ICM, ComRes, YouGov, Panelbase, Kantar and others tomorrow, MORI on Thursday.

I mentioned yesterday that Ipsos MORI normally do their final poll on polling day itself, and got a few comments about whether this is allowed. Yes – it is. The rules on election day is that you cannot publish an exit poll (or any poll that’s based on the opinions of people who have already voted) while polls are still open. It’s perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened. MORI do their fieldwork on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday like everyone else’s final poll… they publish on Thursday because they partner with the Evening Standard who publish around midday, rather than overnight.


1,166 Responses to “Opinium’s final poll: CON 43%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  1. @Crossbat

    Actually my station is King’s Norton, but still in Northfield constituency. Amazingly little sign of election here at all, given it must be high on the list of Con targets. Two leaflets from both parties. No-one else is bothered, for the good reason that they stand no chance whatsoever.

  2. oldnat

    “Are you suggesting that students, for example, don’t go to classes if it’s raining? Or that young workers take a duvet day because of some rain?”

    I think that candy is quite certain about that.

  3. Bantams, I do have some boundaries.

  4. Rob Sheffield

    It’s not correct to say Corbyn has only visited Labour strongholds, he has visited 34 marginals.

    Many people at the rallies have become Corbyn supporters throughout this campaign. So yes they are converted, but that’s how to close a poll gap of 20%.

    You have no idea if he is heading for a shattering defeat. If the under 40s turn out at even 55% , he will have a very successful night.

    Also it is normal for millions of shy Tories to turn up and vote with their pockets. this time it’s not so appealing.

  5. MarkW – The Sun’s headline is an apparent expose on JC rallying at an ISIS talk

    https://www.facebook.com/SunPolitics/photos/a.1028724993849079.1073741828.1021780787876833/1346234025431506/?type=3&theater

  6. Yeah, I can see the argument for averaging them, though there is a part of me that finds it worryingly unscientific. It’s not as though YouGov could adopt it as their own methodology, it simply doesn’t have a sound basis. Still less the idea of ‘add 3 to the Con figure’ and so on that people advocate. If people believe that some pollsters have overcorrected and some undercorrected, perhaps they should put their faith in Opinium. But I suppose the idea is that by averaging polls you reduce the effect of the margin of error.

  7. I get why people look for reasons to be able to ignore articles such as the quoted NS one. I still don’t get why the writer involved would lie about his experiences just to get at JC and how he would be sure that what he wrote would hurt JC’s electoral chances rather than help him? Can anyone explain? Or is he just giving an honest view based on his experience which would contribute to the narrative that Labour are heading for a disaster?

  8. Sun have just copied what Guido Fawkes published this morning -no doubt he got it from …….

  9. @Bantams

    Indeed, very strong stuff from the Sun.

    However, I’m nt sure how much effect these things have. Most people reading the Sun will be pretty used to seeing anti-Corbyn stuff and in some ways the Sun is preaching to the converted. If find if hard to believe that anyone Inclined to voting labour will be reading the Sun – just as much as they would pick up a copy of the Daily Mail.

    The opposite could be said of the Mirror. Not sure how many working class Tories would be Mirror readers.

    MAny academics have done research papers on the extent to which newspaper headlines influence elections – we all remember the famous Sun claim – “it was the Sun that won it!” – referring to then 1992 result.

    The conclusions are generally neutral in that there is no persuasive evidence to suggest it has much effect at all.

  10. No doubt he got it from……….????

  11. Aaron, the sun has an apparent expose, whatever next ?
    I am confident in the British public’s ability to make their mind’s up about the suns integrity.

  12. @Trigguy

    “Actually my station is King’s Norton, but still in Northfield constituency. ”

    Well, there you go. I got married at St Nichols’s Church Kings Norton and lived down the road at West Heath for a while. In the days when Longbridge was going strong, Northfield was a bit of a bell-weather seat, usually going the way of the nationally victorious party. Burden holds it for Labour, now doesn’t he? In days of old, when Redditch was part of the Bromsgrove constituency, it used to take in a bit of Rubery, a suburb of Brum that abuts Northfield. Our old Tory MP,from those days, Jimmy Dance, used to avoid that part of his fiefdom like a plague. Jimmy was a Gerald Nabarro type and much preferred leafy Feckenham to rough old Rubery. Too many Labour voting car workers there for his liking. Red Robbo meets Jimmy Dance. When two world collide.

    Happt days.

    :-)

  13. Rob Sheffield

    It’s not correct to say Corbyn has only visited Labour strongholds, he has visited 34 marginals.

    Many people at the rallies have become Corbyn supporters throughout this campaign. So yes they are converted, but that’s how to close a poll gap of 20%.

    You have no idea if he is heading for a shattering defeat. The polls are unclear and weightings all over the place.

  14. “And free music festivals attract lots of young people – not lots of Labour voters.”

    True, but they were mostly carrying Labour posters, or wearing rosettes, so there’s some chance they might still remember who they’re supposed to vote for on Thursday. Sorry, being cynical again, it doesn’t take long!

  15. @james e

    No, I am refering to the turnout models.

    Survation: 10- certain to vote/already voted by post = 84.4 percent

    Opinium: VI turnout scale 10- definitely would vote = 73 percent

  16. Paul Croft

    I agree that Candy is quite certain about (almost everything).

  17. @Aaron, think you’re pushing it at +150 lol. Still I have bet at 50-75, which I feel is possible. We shall.

    I wouldn’t be disappointed higher of course, even if did lose the Money!

  18. @ Tom Chadwick @ Rob Sheffield,

    An analysis of the movements of TM and JC plotted against how marginal the seats are, where they were on the leaver/remain scale etc. can be found here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40176539

  19. @Candy

    Have posted on previous thread re: Corbynistas not working. Highlights are…

    – quite a few in the gig economy which gives a certain flexibility

    – Theresa’s fans could always rally at weekends and hols, but she doesn’t quite have the enthusiastic membership surge of

    – Theresa has lots of retired boomers with plenty of time for Rallies. Maybe if she did something on allotments or Springwatch kinda thing…

  20. membership surge of Corbyn…

  21. My punt:

    C: 346
    L: 229
    SNP: 47
    LD: 6
    PC: 3
    Greens: 1
    Others: 18

    I think that adds up.

  22. Rob Sheffield.

    Sorry I repeated my post, iPad playing up.

  23. There was no music at the JC rally I went on, let alone some popular beat combo.

  24. Watching newsnight. They have an ‘independent panel’ of young people who are all pro Corbyn. The BBC really is awfully biased now. There is no way there panel will represent the result. I’ll bet any money.

  25. @Paul Croft

    You’ll be delighted to learn that Brexiteers turn out no matter what the weather. There were thunderstorms and flooding on Brexit day, but people just put on their wellies and sailed forth to vote anyway. Isn’t that splendid?

  26. Rob Sheffield

    If it listens or not, and whether it loses 30, 50 or even 70 seats, the Labour Party is heading – and it gives me no pleasure to say this – for a shattering defeat under Jeremy Corbyn, just when it should have been seeking to remake our politics for the common good.

    The guy on sky news seemed to back this up, he reckoned that whilst TM sas in Labour Heartlands, show of confidence, JC has only been in seats Labour wont lose…

    Rich…those bets may not be far of the mark….

  27. Rich,

    If it is the panel I am watching right now they don’t look very young to me.

  28. Have I missed something or, as we go into the final polls has there been a complete lack of marginals polls during this campaign? Given that the outcome would seem to be dependent on the balance between UKippers switching to Conservative in marginal seats versus the turnout of younger voters who may vote Labour in marginals it is a puzzle why none of the pollsters have used marginal polls over the last couple of weeks to reduce the risk of egg-on-face syndrome on Friday.

  29. Posted at the end of the last thread

    Postal vote revealed!

    Dilemma for Bardin1!

    My wife is flying off to greece at 3am and she has left her postal vote for me to deal with.

    Before you even think it, no I didn’t peek…

    She told me she usually votes CON but has voted Labour because of the manifesto and Corbyn

    My dilemma

    It’s a CON / LibDem marginal

    So – should I post it or forget it?

    ………..only kidding, I will of course, with a heavy heart. post it.

  30. Just seen the DM front page, strong stuff.

  31. It cannot be the last Opinium Poll as I have just been polled by them. Undecideds still seem to high across the board, never seen it like this before – anything could happen – could be +100 Tory seats to hung parliament.

  32. I’m not saying it’s a prediction of the turnout amongst 18-24 year olds on Thursday, but this video of tonight’s rally has been viewed 1.5m times in the last 3 hours, and shared 36k times in that same timeframe.

    https://www.facebook.com/labourparty/videos/10154579521852411/

    Look at the energy, the passion… There will be record turnout levels amongst that age category on Thursday, and they’ll be voting Labour 4:1.

    You’ll see.

  33. Candy

    My! You do have extreme weather where you are!

    People have to “sail” in their wellies? Can’t they afford proper boats – or even rafts?

    Not that one should underestimate the importance of wellies

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qfBnSqi8eo

  34. Just like lemmings Candy….

  35. I’m surprised at the popularity of Corbyn among women, and not just in the polls. I noticed it at work, with quite a few taken by him personally after watching him on TV. Strange phenomenon – I’m sure psychologists might be able to explain why.

  36. Why do we have to have a such disgusting vile and shameless press in this country.

  37. Sssimon, could be they like his policies?

  38. Not one poll has corbyn ahead. He’s got no chance.

  39. Philotes

    “Why do we have to have a such disgusting vile and shameless press in this country.”

    Might be something to do with those who make rich owners richer by buying their vile and shameless output?

  40. @ Ian

    “JC has only been in seats Labour wont lose…”

    If that was a true statement Labour would be getting a landslide. JC has been in seats where Cons have a 25% lead. Details are here

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40176539

  41. “MARKW
    There was no music at the JC rally I went on, let alone some popular beat combo.”

    What actually is a “popular beat combo” by the way? It sounds like a very early 60’s term that might be used by someone with very little knowledge of music [amongst other stuff.]

    On the other hand it’s a lot better than an unpopular beat combo I suppose…..

  42. Telegraph says corbyn monitored by special branch for twenty years as he was a subversive .

  43. @Crossbat

    Yes, Burden is currently the MP. Seems OK to me. I was thinking earlier that if he wins, I might even write him a letter, but I suspect he’s not got much hope. Still, no-one really knows until Friday.

    Nice church to get married in, that part of King’s Norton is really pleasant. Not as nice as Evesham though, by a long way.

  44. Never heard of metaphors, @OldNat? My! You do have a poor education in North Britain!

  45. Anyone see YouGov daily seat tally results?

  46. The last gasp of the right-wing tabloids. It’s quite amusing.

  47. Tory supporting papers have now well and truly
    taken the gloves off.

    Expected this earlier.

  48. I was trying to think of the best word to describe the Mail, Sun and Express..

    Most appropriate seemed “extremist”

  49. Paul croft, to me, contemporary pop stuff, my eccentric friend uses the term and i got it of him.

  50. @Brilliant Smith

    For an anti-establishment leader, that’s a badge of honour,

    Just like when Caroline Lucas was arrested in an anti-fracking protest, it beefs up your anti-establishment credentials.

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