Opinium have put out their final poll of the election campaign. Their final figures are CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was between Sunday and today, so it is also the first poll we’ve seen with fieldwork conducted after the terrorist attack in London Bridge, though there’s no significant change from Opinium’s previous poll at the weekend. Full details are here.

This is the first poll to be badged as a final poll. Survation put out their final poll for Good Morning Britain this morning (showing topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 3% – tabs here) but final poll for GMB is not necessarily the same as final poll. We shall, no doubt, have a flurry of final polls from ICM, ComRes, YouGov, Panelbase, Kantar and others tomorrow, MORI on Thursday.

I mentioned yesterday that Ipsos MORI normally do their final poll on polling day itself, and got a few comments about whether this is allowed. Yes – it is. The rules on election day is that you cannot publish an exit poll (or any poll that’s based on the opinions of people who have already voted) while polls are still open. It’s perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened. MORI do their fieldwork on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday like everyone else’s final poll… they publish on Thursday because they partner with the Evening Standard who publish around midday, rather than overnight.


1,166 Responses to “Opinium’s final poll: CON 43%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  1. Alan

    “He (Ashcroft) is predicting somewhere between a hung parliament and a Tory majority of 150”

    He’s really sticking is neck out there then :-)

  2. DRMIBBLES

    don’t worry the men in white coats will be round to take you somewhere quiet and peaceful at approximately one minute past 10 tomorrow night.

  3. Well I hope to keep an open mind although
    really want a CON win, however would say this..

    CON campaign shambolic
    We underestimated Corbyn significantly
    Blairism looks dead, regardless of result
    Labour’s growing support among younger voters
    present us with a challenge long-term
    May will not fight another GE
    You will hear a lot less about austerity from a CON
    Gov during the next parliament (if that is the result)
    There will need to be a renewal/rethink of the CON offering
    before the next GE
    And finally – Labour likely to present a much sterner
    challenge at the next GE.

    Just some random thoughts, hopefully permissible.

  4. Why are IPOS allowed to publish a poll on election day?

  5. Trevor Warne

    Have a look at Ynes Mon or Anglesey as I call it. Ive got friends on the island and the bookies have the tories 3rd in the betting. They arenl third on the ground .. labour are out of it and its between PLaid and the tories. My friends reckon it will go blue

  6. @Daniel

    I guess they don’t read The Sun, Daily Mail, Express, etc.

  7. @Canada

    I don’t know when it’s out, but normally is late evening from memory.

    I need to punch the last data into my model, then that’s me done.

    Ready for the count tomorrow!

  8. @WB

    “I did put a smiley :-) anyway that might be irony, if you are American, whereas the irony is “D’ya Think!” is certainly an Americanism.
    I must be getting poll-it is, I’ve descended into attempting humour when I know I am not funny: I am reduced to the absurd!!”

    ————

    That’s ok, but you should take care not to give openings to Paul, who’s an inveterate bubble-burster. He’s a solo performer you see…

  9. CB11 – we have a classier cricketer than you on here now with Cover Drive having joined us.

  10. CB11
    I’m likely to be at Worcester for the cricket on Friday too. I’ll wear my vivid lime green and black striped tie from the referendum so you can avoid/buy me a pint according to taste!

  11. Bobinnorfolk

    Please read the most recent main posting on this website

  12. @BobinNorfolk

    You can publish a poll in election day, as long as the data was collected before election day.

    What you can’t publish is how people have actually voted before polls close.

  13. A key point to remember:

    ALL the polls show the same underlying data – a very close race.

    It’s only their weighting methodology which changes the headline figure.

    People who don’t like YouGov say things like “as if youth turnout will be 80%” – when in fact, YouGov DOWNWEIGHT self-reported youth voting intention by 15%, to 51%.

    This is a fact. Please take a moment to absorb and think about it.

    Youth turnout in 2010 was 51%. Does anyone seriously think that this election will have a LOWER youth turnout than 2010?

    Because if you don’t believe that, then all polls, including YouGov, are over-estimating the CON lead.

    And any gut-feel you have to try and rationalise that into something else is just that – your feelings. Your confirmation bias telling you that the facts are, somehow, wrong.

    They’re not. You just don’t want to believe them.

  14. @TonyBTG

    Ashcroft’s ‘combined probabilistic model’ suggested yesterday a ‘potential’ majority of 64, albeit hedged around with a lot of provisos. Nevertheless, he is sticking his neck out rather further than you suggest.

    Mind you, who would trust a man who believes that there is a word ‘probabilistic’?

  15. Polls have been pretty static the last week or so. Quite a contrast to earlier in the campaign. Suggests the Tory vote is pretty solid. Can’t wait for the final polls :-)

  16. You only know what the ‘facts are” come results.

  17. DEXTER CHARLES.
    Hello to you; Ted was my first cricketing hero. (He also left his name on the exam paper in Cantab: Ted Dexter, England’ and walked out; achieving a Pass Degree.
    I think if the Tories replace May in, say, 2020 this will do for them what the election of Major did in 1990- victory in the next GE.

    Labour may well split.

  18. Richardw

    Fair comment. I stand corrected.

  19. I’m with Daniel on this one… My laughed-at prediction of yesterday that was made more ridiculous by a love of jaw-dropping moments is actually based on personal experience.. so anecdote alert!!

    Social Media seems to be the hige left wing echo chamber that will seek out, bait then ridicule Tory voters.. and so that forces them underground. I have spoken to probably around 60 people on Facebook who are voting Tory but have no intention of telling the world about it…

    So, I actually think that the echo chamber of Facebook and Twitter is actually making the Shy Tory thing even more of a thing this time around – given how Brexit voters were treated in the run up to and then after the results..It was the seemingly unpopular place to air being a Brexiter and so they just jept quiet.

    I think that this is a phenomenon that is just not recognised or appreciated. I may actually look into doing a study about it..

    There’s also the potential that it would affect polling too because people spend so much time on social media, they could be reluctant to admit it else-where.

    I’d not be surprised to see a 1992 style landslide on Friday… and then the echo chamber will start to cry all sorts from fixes, to abuse, conspiracy etc. It happened after 2010 and the referendum (both EU and Scotland) and it will happen again on Friday.

    I think more research into the digital bubble effect, echo chambers and how social media affects VI and polls is needed.

  20. Pollster change in Wales since writ being dropped:

    Labour +16%
    Conservative -5%
    LD -3%
    Plaid -4%
    UKIP -1%

  21. @TONYBTG

    Thanks for courteous acknowledgement!

  22. lots of personal bias in reading into things. The You Gov Welsh poll is the 4th recent poll now that shows no swing in the last few days.

    So we at this point are still anywhere according to these polls between a hung Parliament and a very comfortable Tory majority.

    All this business of teeny boppers storming the barricades to vote for Corby, older labour voters staying at home , tactical voters and heaven knows what other options, and we don’t even have a clue if the pollsters have their base data correct, never mind the adjustments

  23. RichardW

    probabilistic
    ?pr?b?b??l?st?k/Submit
    adjective
    based on or adapted to a theory of probability; subject to or involving chance variation.
    “the main approaches are either rule-based or probabilistic”

  24. Drmibbles, I hope this won’t sound offensive.

    But every time I come to this site to check up, and your name appears, it’s almost the exact same post about youth voters and what defines people who like yougov Vs ICM…

    The election is only tomorrow, it would be really nice to mix it up for the next 24hrs :)

  25. @Aaron

    Not saying people won’t be disappointed, but use of social media and technology is changing at an enormous rate. 2017 is a long way beyond 2010, and so whilst you are over-confident anyway, using history as a guide, even as recent as 2010, is not a reliable guide. Think about how all the placards have disappeared? Do you think there aren’t right-wing echo chambers too? If it was that simple, don’t you think all pollsters would have similar weighting models?!

  26. @ChrisLane1945

    Hi Chris, it’s going to be a fascinating night.
    Like the anecdote ).

  27. RichardW

    Look at the 2.5% tails of his predictions.

    At least YouGov are printing the Credible interval whereas Ashcroft has declined to publish an interval of -20 seats up to 150 seats.

    Ultimately he is saying that his model is hugely uncertain of the result and if the centre point happens to be close it is more through luck than judgement.

    The man has more hedges than the Hampton Court Maze

  28. @Aaron

    I’d not be surprised to see a 1992 style landslide on Friday

    1992 wasn’t a landslide. It was a tiny majority that left John Major post Black Friday crippled by infighting over Europe.

    If TM repeats 1992, she will be bitterly disappointed.

  29. The shy tories may come out , but the ex kippers will not . Tories 40%

  30. Nicola Sturgeon just sending a warning to all the Scottish population, “Don’t wake up on Friday to discover Scotland has thrown Theresa May a lifeline.”

    I think she is worried some serious damage is going to be done to the SNP Westminster parliamentary lineup after tomorrow.

  31. @ FORMISTER76

    Thanks for educating me!

  32. George Osborne nailing the Evening Standard colours to the Tory mast tonight, huge front page headline, ‘ CORBYN CHAOS ‘ and then his editorial comment writ large, ‘ We think people should vote Conservative tomorrow ‘ .
    I’m surprised at the anti Labour article since, over the last couple of weeks, the Standard has been lukewarm about May, and quite positive about Corbyn, tonight the front page is devoted to a demolition of Labour’s competences and personnel, perhaps he and his Oligarch boss don’t rate their chances of honours under a Corbyn regime ? Or perhaps he had dinner with his old firm pals last night, and they told him that the future promised only dinner with socialists, and all that Islington class war stuff. ;-)

  33. Tories must be pleased with that Welsh poll that would give them there highest ever vote percentage in Wales if those figures were correct in the GE.

  34. @Alan

    Oh well, at least Ashcroft’s being honest that he’s not sure.

  35. Aaron ,I think Labour would be happy with a ,1992 landslide in seats . The Tories I believe had a 21 majority.

  36. One prediction that I know is definitely going to come true on Friday is GE polling withdrawal syndrome (PWS).

    And the only cure for PWS is an unstable hung-parliament! ;-)

  37. @Aaron

    Social Media seems to be the hige left wing echo chamber that will seek out, bait then ridicule Tory voters.. and so that forces them underground. I have spoken to probably around 60 people on Facebook who are voting Tory but have no intention of telling the world about it…

    Really, and I’m sure there are people who are afraid to say they’re voting Labour after seeing the right-wing tabloid blaring headlines.

    As for 1992, the Tories received 336 seats. Which would hardly be a landslide.

  38. @Aaron

    A 20 something year old tells me that on facebook people in her age group will pretty much only post politically in favour of Labour but in conversations with her friends quite a few are voting conservative but they dont bother putting their head above the parapit as it just attracts abuse and trolling.

  39. Alan

    Obviously I didn’t have the regression function, but I had the variables. I can’t recall it precisely, and I can’t check it because the open source software that I used then ceased to update, but by memory very few (four?) variables were responsible for about 72% (?) of the output. But there were many variables. I got to this by running the function many times. I’m also quite sure that they didn’t have the Monte Carlo element.

  40. The Ashcroft poll has Brighton pavillion being 76% likelihood of labour, with labour vote share on 42% vs others on 31%.

    So I’m going to go bold and say that I’d only worry about the national prediction with Ashcroft, because pavillion staying green is about the only thing I’m sure of in this election.

  41. @ Aaron

    Neither you, nor anyone else advocating shy Tories has come up with an adequate explanation of why this would stop said shy Tories from declaring their true allegiance in an on-line poll.

    If they are so intimidated that they cannot tick the Cons box in the privacy of an on-line poll, why would they be able to do so in the polling booth.

    I can accept an impact on canvas returns, and open social interactions, but you have not put forward a plausible mechanism for it skewing the polls.

  42. SSSimon

    Exactly, the result we all secretly want is Con to get 310 seats and the country to be ungovernable and we go back to the polls in a few weeks time. Otherwise we’ll have 5 years to wait until the next election!

  43. AARON

    “I have spoken to probably around 60 people on Facebook who are voting Tory but have no intention of telling the world about it…”

    That is actually a very amusing line.

  44. Osbourne’s got a nerve!. If Corbyn wins it will because of him. If May wins it will be in spite of him.

    He really has shown his true colours in this election and what a little rat he really is.

  45. @Emma in Brighton

    Yep.

    I would put Brighton Pavillion probably among the top ten safest seats in the country.

    There is no way Caroline Lucas won’t get a massive majority.

  46. @ Alan

    Precisely – we’ve been very lucky to have had another GE called just 2 years after the last. Let’s not make this a one-off! ;-)

  47. WALES seat by seat changes (IMHO) – v.few!

    GOWER – agree with others Gower might go to LAB
    DELYN/WREXHAM – My model telling me slight chance of CON taking Wrexham and slightly more confident they take Delyn
    Further down the probabilities/mentioned by others:
    – Vale of Clwyd (high 2015 UKIP and no candidate, think it stays CON but not confident)
    – Cardiff North might go LAB (demographics suggest it isn’t the student area but I don’t know the place at all and can’t be bothered finding where all the student digs are in every town unless the market/model disagrees)

    All fairly close TBH and odds aren’t great so not bothering to bet on anywhere in Wales. Surprisingly most seats in Wales seem to have very close proximity to all models (incl. YouGov) and the betting markets. No disrespect to the Welsh but that is pretty dull!!

    DRMIBBLES – OK, you “convinced” me. 3 x10 quid free bets on Canterbury using yet another new Paddy Power account at 25-1. I think the odds are fair but seems like you live/study there so I’ll take your “inside knowledge”. Weather looks OK for tomorrow – so no excuses!!

    P.S. Paddy Power seem to have very poor “new customer” checks – bored students should be all over that!!

  48. A poster asked, I thought. a good question the other day.

    What majority does Mrs May need to be able to in effect ignore to the arch Euro-Philes and the uber Brexiteers within the PCP?

    is 50 enough, possibly not?

  49. CATMANJEFF

    Is Caroline Lucas standing then .. the Greens spent the first part of this election standing more candidates down in seats to try and manipulate the outcome rather than trying to be a serious party in their own right. I’m surprised she didn’t stand herself down to help Corbyn or the Lib dems.

  50. Sorry, I’ve totally got my year wrong… I meany 87 not 92

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