There is only one GB poll so far today – ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian, their penultimate of the campaign. Voting intentions are almost identical to their poll for the Sun on Sunday yesterday, with topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so will have been largely before the terrorist attack in London Bridge. Full tabs are here.

Survation will have a telephone poll out later tonight (probably midnight judging by past weeks’ timings) for Good Morning Britain, delayed for a day because of the terrorist attack. Other than that I expect most companies will now be looking towards their final call polls tomorrow, Wednesday or (if MORI stick their usual timetable) Thursday morning.


1,618 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  1. Mark W

    As discussed often the differing polls are mainly due to some polling organisations calculating the youth vote will not turn out beyond 40% ish for Labour based on previous election figures.

    For the past two elections the main party leader choices have been Cameron Clegg Brown Miliband with Farage thrown in. Not surprising the youth vote was low.

  2. To the people touting Survation’s nailing the last election – the very fact they chose not to publish that poll seriously undermines their credibility, imho. Had they gone ahead and published it, I would be much more willing to trust their numbers, but they instead outwardly committed one of the major sins of polling, leaving me with doubts.

  3. Pardon the run-on…

  4. Cambridge Rachel
    You know that more Tories got their knuckles rapped than Labour MPs?
    Since the Telegraph broke the story, they got to spin it. That’s the prize for breaking a story fair and square.
    But I take your point.

  5. The UK election is discussed in the new FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. They talk a bit about UK polling at the beginning of the programme and then (with Nate Silver for the last fifteen or twenty minutes) about the current polls. There isn’t a lot that would be news to UKPR-ites, frankly, but some may be interested in the perspective of the most famous polling analyst.

  6. Answer=42

    Yes I know that but I expect Tories to be less than totally honest, I won’t quote Denis Skinner but I agree with him! But I would never vote for them anyway. Generally people expect more of labour

  7. @IAN PENNELL
    “Much as I would not like to say it, but we have a Survation telephone Poll (which should include more older people than their online poll) showing the Tories only 1% ahead ”
    —————————–
    Am I right in thinking that the Survation poll was by telephone and they discarded all “Refused to say”? That being the case I am not surprised that the Tory vote is so low – this to me is just how the “shy Tories” manifest themselves.

    When I was active in politics and did canvassing in mixed areas anyone who refused to say how they were voting (especially if they did it politely) was almost always a Tory. Some of them might not have voted, but if they did you could be absolutely certain they weren’t voting for you. (You can tell from this that I wasn’t canvassing for the Tories, but that doesn’t make this a partisan comment).

  8. Ian Pennel

    something is happening with voters, Which looks like is a rejection of mainstream media. When you think all 3 main party leaders told us a vote for Brexit would be disastrous economically and we’re ignored. The same mentality is occurring with Corbyn, the constant bombardment of IRA and ‘terrorist friend’ stories would have destroyed a politician just a few years ago, but not now it appears.

    If this does turnout to be Corbyns election it will signal the end of the influence of the right wing press and the power of social media.

  9. Answer=42, CR

    Though one cannot forget that the really serious MPs expenses cases – the criminal cases where MPs went to prison – were all Labour MPs.

  10. @Tom Chadwick
    For the past two elections the main party leader choices have been Cameron Clegg Brown Miliband with Farage thrown in. Not surprising the youth vote was low
    ——————————————-

    So why do you think they will turn out to vote for someone who is older than most of their grandparents, and who is already collecting his state pension?

  11. @CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    But more red went to the clink (or should have done but pulled a sickie) than blue, no?

  12. @DrMibbles

    “it is without precedent in my living memory”

    The Sheffield Rally in 1992 — which was organised as a thank-you for volunteers but was treated after the fact like a pre-emptive victory rally — was bigger. That was 25 years ago, so it’s not “living memory” to a lot of people now, but it’s probably the first election that counts as recent (i.e. post-Thatcher) to political historians.

    Bracketing to the last 25 years, you have two unexpected majorities, two landslides, one expected middling majority and one hung parliament. My gut sense here is “as you were” plus or minus 20, but that’s the difference between a middling majority and a hung parliament.

  13. “So why do you think they will turn out to vote for someone who is older than most of their grandparents, and who is already collecting his state pension?”

    becasue all the polling is telling us that – plus there’s the evidence of thousands of young people turning out to see him at rallies and the sheer volume of pro-corbyn stuff on social media.

    And maybe they actually dont care about his age – maybe they like him because he seen as honest, unspun and anti-establishment and is offering a hopeful alternative rather than the technocratic policy wonkery plus sound bites of milliband, clegg, brown etc – or more gruel from terresa may.

    now you might think these young people are naive and foolish and that they are falling for bribes and falsehoods – but its easy to see why corbyn inspires young people.

  14. “If this does turnout to be Corbyns election it will signal the end of the influence of the right wing press and the power of social Media”

    ———

    Don’t forget that social media can also be deployed for micro-targeting…

  15. TOM CHADWICK

    What was rejected in the EUref was ‘project fear’: the projection of doom, gloom and utter disaster that would befall us should we be too stupid not to vote remain. Why? Because what they were saying was laughable. I remember the threat of the ‘punishment budget’, the spectre of global conflict etc. In short the electorate knew they were being conned and saw through it. Had the remainers put their case in a calmer and more measured ie believable form I’ve no doubt remain would have won.

    I recall Sturgeon making a clear warning some 2 months before the vote that project fear was wrong and it risked the remainers losing. She correctly pointed out that in indyref1 the better together campaign had majored on project fear. And whilst better together won in the end, it was in spite of their campaign tactic and not because of it: they lost a large part of the huge lead they had over yes at the start of that campaign. Ignoring that advice was a catastrophic error for the remainers.

    Turning to GE 2017, of the 2 manifestos the one thats least believable is Labour’s. It has some very big spending pledges all backed up with the claim that most voters wont have to pay anything for them. I doubt many voters really believe that. The IFS have stated that Labours tax raising plans (those they have disclosed that is) fall a long way short of the necessary amount. The Tories are using ‘magic money tree’ to criticise it. They would not be doing this if they did not already know that phrase resonates with voters beliefs about Labour’s plan.

    The Con manifesto, whilst dire in its own special way, does not lack credibility in the same way as Labour’s. It is believable, if unduly depressing.

    So whilst I think your argument is mostly true with say the 18-25 voters, it isnt with the rest. And as others have said this election is going to depend on relative turnout amongst different age groups.

    I expect to see a huge turnout amongst older voters for Con. Part of that will be grudging, but they will make sure they vote because the possibility of Corbyn actually winning has come into view (at least in the media and polls), and they just do not believe Labours promises are deliverable. And, of course, they want brexit sorted.

    I originally predicted a huge Con win. That may be unlikely now, but they’ll still get back with a comfortable majority.

  16. Baldbloke

    But the Tory campaign has been project fear yet again, by your reasoning Corbyn should walk this

  17. BALDBLOKE
    Is that so? I did not know. In 1997, Labour won some seats they never expected to win and there were a few who did not get the usual scrutiny. Most were still around at the time.
    Justice must be done.

  18. @BaldBloke

    Yeah, I don’t quite follow your logic on campaigning styles. You say that “projects fear” (I presume that is the correct plural form, à la governors general) predicting catastrophe in the case of an opposing was an own in both the Scottish IndyRef and the EURef. But then that the Conservative tactic to highlight predictions of catastrophe from a Labour government will be a winning strategy.

    Maybe both those things will turn out to be correct, but it certainly doesn’t seem that one *follows* from the other, if you were to make any link it would be quite the opposite!

  19. Oops!

    […] case of an opposing win was an own goal in both […]

    that should have read if it was confusing!

  20. The Conservatives offer the equvilent of a trip to the dentist and Labour offer the equvilent of a trip to Thorpe Park.

  21. From the Financial Times –
    “Asked if Labour was heading for a good night, one well-placed party source replied: “No. Not at all. Not one bit. They are all wrong.””

    Pretty poor postal vote indications too from Ealing South & Acton , and Penistone apparently. From a Labour perspective , it does not smell too good. I am now emotionally resigned to a Tory majority of circa 100.

  22. This is an interesting read:

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/

    They are issues I can certainly relate to as a labour voter.

  23. I read that Tony Blair has said:

    May is a light weight.

    Corbyn is a nut.

    Who will he vote for.

    What do you think of his comments.

  24. If it is true that Labour canvassers are not “feeling in their waters” the same narrowing as the polls describe, is there not an alternative possible dynamic to account for some of that discrepancy? If there is any merit in the concept that Corbyn is a radical change/plague-on-all-your-houses type of a prime ministerial candidate, might it be possible that where campaigners are targetting “Labour supporters” in the countdown to polling day, anywhere these lists are outdated, the actual support base might have shifted elsewhere to some extent and they’re now knocking on the wrong doors?

    I’ve nothing to suggest that *is* the case, but it’s a possibility that any aspiring Sherlock Holmes would be looking to eliminate, isn’t it?

  25. Hi, I’ve been lurking on here for a while, I like the opinions and the chatter, because it appears that in general both the left and right on here are fairly respectable to 1 another for the most part at least. Anyway here’s my opinion on what will happen on the big day (I’ve become stat and poll obsessed in this election so I’m not uninformed by any measure):

    There will be a hung parliament. I am reluctant to put my neck out further than that, but if I were to do so I would say that the tories are going to win the most seats, but due to Labour having a larger pool of similar leaning parties they will be in line to form a minority government (remember, I’m reluctant to put my neck out on this last statement, so don’t hold me to it).

    This is why: The young turnout and the historical non voting turnout will be larger than it has been in many, many years. I know people in their 40s who have never voted before, people who were last year calling politics a pointless waste of time now getting fully into the vision Corbyn has put forward. I know students who have never seen so many people talking about Corbyn and they know that this is no Milliband, this is no middle of the road Labour leader, that this is a radical shift, that this is a real vote for change. My point is, the polling that is predicting a 10 point lead for the Tories has not taken these people into account in any way. I absolutely believe the ones that are almost level with the Tories are the more accurate representation of where Labour really are, and I suspect there may even be a point or 2 to come before election day, which there’s no reason to think won’t happen seeing as it’s only ever gotten closer throughout this election.

    Just don’t be surprised when the Tories are down from what they were. Which of course is clearly a massive failure for May.

  26. I guess it is the same problem – turnout. It might not just be the youth vote that corbyn will have to get out but a whole new section of the population who don’t vote. If he does that fair play, he deserves to win. I would expect canvassers to be able to pick up on some ground swell of populism though, as if the polling companies can find it presumably the labour activists would be able too….

  27. When I say win I mean not loose terribly.

  28. @Nicholas Bird

    Exactly, it’s the perennial problem with Labour really. I just fully expect an unusually high young and non voter turnout, and it amazes me that so few seem to be picking up on it. I would bet money on it. And of course, if it is high, then the Tories have problems.

  29. We will of course only find out on election day. But I’ll probably have to go into hiding if I’m wrong, because I’ve convinced a lot of people around me that I am correct. They’ll never take me seriously again if I’m way off.

  30. @Nicholas Bird
    Interesting article you linked to. The corollary is that that some polls should not be Labour v Conservative but Corbyn v May.

  31. BALDBLOKE, IFS ripped apart the Tory manifesto as well as Labours.

    For those thinking Labour can or get close to winning, lala land beckons for you.

  32. I have an idea! Which is probably garbage but I can’t sleep so I will post it anyway.

    Could the discrepancy between the polls and the reports of MP’s from the constituency doorsteps be being caused by a kind of shy corbynism?

    Even if the more optimistic polls for Labour are wrong, they aren’t that wrong surely, and Corbyn is not still toxic. Can there be a more unpleasant sight to the average Corbyn supporter than seeing a member of the PLP stood on their doorstep? Perhaps they are misinterpreting the epithets.

  33. It’s interesting that Labor Uncut has got nowhere near Labor’s internal polling (which is all that really counts). Further, saying that canvassers are seeing a reluctance of voters “in the eyes” is pretty bizarre. The article does read as an attempt to say that Corbyn has chased away traditional Labor voters and turned them into “shy Tories”, setting up a narrative for the party battle after the election. Anyway, Thursday will answer all.

  34. I don’t remember an election so difficult to pick. Pols tis week rage from a 1 % tory lead which could give a minority labour government or a 12 % tory lead which would give a large conservative majority. I am sure the treatment of those likely to vote is the difference but I find this suprising.

  35. The Labour Uncut website is written by a former Blairite who has shown active hostility to Corbyn throughout his leadership. There’s even an article on there defending poor old Danzcuk. They’ll still attack Corbyn even if he wins.

  36. @FREDDO

    But surely the point is this. If the labour activists thought that the election was going to be close then they wouldn’t be setting up for a party battle after the election as if the election is only a 1% difference they would have to admit corbyn had done better than previous recent candidates and he’d have a mandate to stay. So even if these activists are somewhat ‘glad’, the truth is it’s still happening in their eyes.

  37. Nicholas Bird – Why not? I’m sure there are many in Corbyn’s party who don’t want him to win. One’s biggest political enemies are always in one’s own party, not across the dispatch box.

  38. Interesting to see the range in Polls this time and I note that Survation and YouGov were the worst performers in 2015. They’ve either got it right or are even worse than last time.

  39. Probably important to mention that ’18-25′ year olds are the smallest percentage of the population relative to pretty much every other similar sized year group up to the age of 60. And that trend will continues for the next ten years.

  40. So I have been thinking about the UK election from the point of view of the Canadian legislative, and US and French Presidential elections. Neither Trudeau, Trump nor Macron were supposed to win, and they all came from behind.

    In the case of Trudeau and Trump it was not clear, even two weeks from election day, if either was going to win. What do they all have in common? They are perceived of as agents of change.

    What May and the Conservatives may have completely misread is the intent of voting for BREXIT, which in and of itself signalled a desire by a majority of the electorate for change.

    Corbyn, any way you look at him, is not status quo ante, in terms of either Blair, Brown or Milliband within the Labour Party. He is in fact much closer to Nigel Farage as a political outsider.

    I may be completely misreading the UK election, but it has all the makings of the 2015 Canadian election. Trudeau was running third behind the Conservatives when the writ was dropped, and while the Canadian electorate knew that they wanted a change from the one term majority Conservatives, it took them from August 2nd to October 1st to decide that they wanted it to be Trudeau.

    Even three days out from the election, it was still unclear how big a minority Trudeau would get, and no one had a real inkling until the last polls were completed that he might end up with a majority. I am not suggesting that Corbyn will get a majority. He may not even get a minority. However, the latest Survation poll, if accurate, according to Election Poll Swingometer 2017:

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=43.2&LAB=38.7&UKIP=5.6&LD=8&GRN=3.2

    …would leave May and the Conservatives 13 seats short of a majority, which even with both DUP and UUP, on 10 seats, would leave her 3 seats short of a majority.

    Whether Corbyn could cobble together a confidence and supply agreement with SDLP, SNP, PC, LD, Green and Lady Herman is not my guess to make, but May soldiering on with the backing of just two factions of the protestant parties from Northern Ireland does not look very likely either, and if the LD lose any more seats they cannot afford to flip flop for a second time. And then there is Mark Rutte in the Netherlands who still cannot find enough partners to form a majority in Parliament. Elections anyone?

  41. Would also agree with the “Project Fear” assessment.
    What appeared to happen was each subsequent claim
    diminished those that had gone before and weakened
    the case as a whole.

  42. CANADA – If May called the election so that she had a super-majority which allowed her to sideline the Brexit-maddies in her party, she has already failed. How does she do that with just a slight majority?

    Not sure that Corbyn would need a formal supply agreement with the other minority parties. If the Govt loses a confidence motion, the Queen will invite Labor to form a govt. That will continue until it loses a confidence motion. But, of course, Corbyn would probably race back to the polls with the prestige of being PM. I stand to be corrected.

  43. In fact, the very last thing that Labor would want to do is have a formal “agreement” with any other parties. Corbyn has said he won’t. If he tries, the other parties will start thinking that Labor policy is negotiable. It would be a disaster.

  44. If you are right Tom then it is disturbing in the sense true journalism largely based on fact can be overturned by people on social media yelling fake news while actually promoting fake news of their own. It is also true that there is little debate on social media anyone to the right of centre left is just swamped out.

    Additionally,

    As to the actual vote will we see something similar to last time? Yes more young may vote, and vote Labour, but it will largely be in safe Labour seats. Similarly the UKIP vote will boost the Tories in the shires where they are already like to win.

    The only possible difference I see is the SNP losing some seats in Scotland as much as due to their poor performance in office as a resurgence in the Tory vote.

  45. Good Morning All.
    A hard rain falls on my spot in southern England; Bournemouth East.

    I reckon that YouGov and Survation will be proven inaccurate.

    Labour is heading for a bad defeat, I think, with majority of English voters, and I mean England opting, many of them reluctantly, for safety with May.

    By the way on twitter there is a report the policeman who shot three terrorists has been suspended for an investigation into his conduct.

  46. @ SPACEMAN

    A quick read of the comments section on the Independent
    makes your point!.

    I’m hoping that quiet conservatives win the day.

    A very wet Weybridge this morning, when my cat
    refuses his usual morning stroll the weather is bad!.

  47. Hi Anthony
    Can I be taken out of auto-mod please?
    I promise that I won’t make any partisan or inappropriate comments, just polling views.

  48. baldbloke,
    “I recall Sturgeon making a clear warning some 2 months before the vote that project fear was wrong and it risked the remainers losing.”

    While project fear might have been badly presented, and the fact you use that name demonstrates this, in essence the message was correct and remains so. The conservative party shows every sign that it believes project fear, which is why it just presented an austerity manifesto.

    Sturgeon, however, might well have been right that the campaign was far too negative and failed to promote anything positive about being a member. It failed to counter the alleged negatives presented by remain.

    One of the biggest issues, immigration, remains as thorny as ever, that labour previously, conservative pre referendum and conservatives post referendum all have a consistent policy not to reduce it, unless demand for employees drops. If demand drops then they dont need to do anything, because it will self regulate, because much immigration is driven by pro active recriutment abroad. Supposedly one of the decisive issues, but no politician exept perhaps rump UKIP intends to change it.

    Then we have arguments about whether students should be counted, who are essentially paying guests, or wealthy indivudals who are just nodded in.

    Its all vey ‘Alice in wonderland’.

  49. Canada Election 2015 writ period polling August 2nd to October 18th, with results October 19th:

    Liberal 25%-39.1% – 39.5%

    Conservative 28%-30.5% – 31.9%

    NDP (Labour) 39%-19.7% – 19.7%

    Other 8%-10.1% – 8.1%

    In this election the Liberals increased their support by 14.1% and the Conservatives by 3.5% in the polls.

    UK Election 2017 election called after House of Commons vote April 19th

    Conservatives 48%-41%/47%
    Labour 25%-34%/40%
    LD 11%-6%/8%
    SNP 6%-4%
    Other 10%-9%/10%

    In this election campaign Labour’s position has improved according to the more Conservative favouring pollsters by 9% and among those who think the race is even tighter by as much as 15%. Further Labour is the only Party to have gained support during the campaign.

    Conservative support according to YouGov/Times was 48% on April 18/19th with Comres having them at 50%, and interestingly Survation had them on 40% April 21st/22nd. So ironically Survation is the only pollster to have Conservative support grow during the campaign period.

    Depending on which pollster you choose UKIP and the Greens have lost up to half their support during the campaign period, and LD have either held onto most of theirs or lost up to a third of their support.

    In Canada the Liberals did not firmly take the lead from the Conservatives until around October 1st with last pollster saying the Conservatives were in the lead October 10th.

    On October 14th, five days out from the election, the smallest gap between the Conservatives and Labour was .9% and the largest 7.7%. On October 18th the smallest gap between Conservative and Liberals was 3.9% and the largest gap 10%.

    The final gap was 7.7%. Now which Party is which when comparing the 2017 UK election I do not know, but thus far since the start of the campaign it is UK Labour who have had the momentum according to every pollster and not the Conservatives.

    How you get a super majority out that situation for the Conservatives I simply do not understand.

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