There is only one GB poll so far today – ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian, their penultimate of the campaign. Voting intentions are almost identical to their poll for the Sun on Sunday yesterday, with topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so will have been largely before the terrorist attack in London Bridge. Full tabs are here.

Survation will have a telephone poll out later tonight (probably midnight judging by past weeks’ timings) for Good Morning Britain, delayed for a day because of the terrorist attack. Other than that I expect most companies will now be looking towards their final call polls tomorrow, Wednesday or (if MORI stick their usual timetable) Thursday morning.


1,618 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%”

1 30 31 32 33
  1. @magosh

    As i say, serious boots on the ground effort, plus invigorated youth / large student population, plus a pretty solid base already.

    Might be enough to off-set the potential Blue UKIP uplift

  2. SSIMON, you mention the DUP and Sinn Fein. Thats only half the argument. You have to look at the DUP & UUP vote combined and the Sinn Fein and SDLP vote combined. There is virtually no cross-over between the catholics and protestants. Catholics vote virtually excluively SF/SDLP and protestants vote virtually exclusively DUP/UUP.

    They may switch within their groupings but they don’t cross the sectarian divide.

  3. @ SSSimon

    In the interests of strong & stable I won’t change my prediction of 47/31 however ridiculous it looks now. I don’t think it would look good on UKPR to be U-turning :-)

  4. I agree with people who say large crowds don’t win elections.

    I raise them as further interesting evidence of a very enthused youth vote. That NatCen poll is a month old, when polls DID show youth turnout at 50%. They now show it at 66% as engagement in the election has grown.

  5. Another anecdotal thing.. around Alton Towers, you can’t move for Conservative posters… They are in fields, in gardens, every-where. I remember in 2010 (it may actually have been 2005 actually) the same was true for UKIP…

  6. Plymouth City Council admits it has failed to deliver 1500 ballot papers to postal voters and says it will hand deliver them tomorrow. Not much use if you are not there to receive it and vote in person on Thursday. Two marginal.seats in Plymouth.

    In other possible electoral difficulties, the Tory party in Scotland has been reported to the Electoral Commission for accepting a £100k donation from an unincorporated.association which was not registered with the Commisssion.

  7. If the Tory campaign trail is based on sending May to what the tories consider to be marginal Labour seats now, because of UKIP demise, why do they send her to visit some small factory with 20 employees or whatever?

    I could see it, if she was out and about shaking hands or knocking doors, but seems to arrive, take questions off the press, then leave.

  8. Looking at BBC News tonight, it seems as if TM has finally got some traction with promises and things she will do in office, with the alterations to human rights, brexit talk, criticising Trump on Khan etc…

    Is this all too little too late, or was it always her ploy to let Labour gain some momentum to then play a hand of ace cards that bat them off?

  9. @Canada

    I don’t know, sorry.

    I feel obliged (and quite happy) to stick to my model. So the last YG poll is the last piece of the jigsaw.

  10. Using my formula from earlier and optimistic estimations of turnout and registration I am going to predict the following vote shares:

    Conservative = 39%
    Labour = 36%

  11. “WOODY
    Wasn’t Nick Clegg more popular than Churchill at one point?”

    Certainly not in the war years.

    With regard to posters and quantities, I’ve always found them a bit weird and have never understood the necessity to tell other people how you intend to vote. I assume people wouldn’t wander down the street yelling at all and sundry: “I’M VOTING LABOUR” so why stick it on your window??

    Anyway, more anecdotes and weather updates for Thursday please.

  12. The 1500 ballot papers missing in Plymouth could be interesting as Oliver Colvile is only defending a majority of just 500 votes! No idea what the legal ramifications of calling a revote might be if it were close again?

  13. Aaron

    I might be wrong, but the HRA thing sounds like desperation to me.

  14. Aaron

    Boris did a pretty good demolition job n labours spending plans too earlier and was quite funny while doing it. Where on earth has he been for the last month and why didn’t they do this earlier. The whole campaign has been bemusing to say the least

  15. Get the impression Kezia Dugdale has a spring in her step lately.

  16. @Albert

    “I shouldn’t worry about the crowds. Kinnock and Foot packed em in, didn’t help much on polling day. I suspect they are busing these momentum people around following Corbyn like he’s the piped piper”

    ——–

    Nope, there’s loads of them. Been surrounded by a bunch of them in a bar before now. Locals, not bussed around. I was a bit shocked to be honest. They don’t subscribe to the press memes, they know what happened to the deficit and the debt, they know about QE, they’re not swayed by household economy memes. They know boomers benefited from cheap housing, full employment and free tuition while the economy grew and don’t see why they shouldn’t have the same.

  17. @Paul Croft
    I assume people wouldn’t wander down the street yelling at all and sundry: I’M VOTING LABOUR” so why stick it on your window??

    I and many others did walk around with ‘I’m voting remain’ stickers – didn’t do much good in the end obvs.

    I think these days its mostly party members who do it rather than normal punters.

  18. ALBERTTATLOCK

    Agree on Boris, he was a good warm up act for May too.

    PROFHOWARD

    Maybe not for long. Sturgeon has just claimed that Dugdale privately told her that Labour should drop its opposition to IndyRef2

  19. Prof Howard

    That will be too much ‘irn bru’.. probably a touch of wind maybe

  20. @Albert

    I should add, if you look at the polling, you can see its prolly not just a few thousand bussed around. And Hundreds of thousands excitedly signed up for membership remember, despite Corbyn initially seeming to have no hope.

  21. @CARFEW

    Here’s the thing about housing, on a mass build scale the men + materials cost of building a house is 60-80K, the rest comes from the over-inflated price of the underlying land.

    They are right to be angry.

  22. @ Hawthorn, @ Aaron

    “I might be wrong, but the HRA thing sounds like desperation to me”

    It has a play to the core vote flavour about it. Talk of scrapping the HRA always plays well to those on the right, but doesn’t go down as well in the centre and left.

  23. @Albert

    “Boris did a pretty good demolition job n labours spending plans too earlier and was quite funny while doing it. Where on earth has he been for the last month and why didn’t they do this earlier. The whole campaign has been bemusing to say the least”

    ———

    Lol, good idea of him to do it late on, if he did that earlier, Labour would have plenty time to start focusing on what’s happened to the debt…

  24. @CARFEW

    Here’s the thing about housing, on a mass build scale the men + materials cost of building a house is 60-80K, the rest comes from the over-inflated price of the underlying land.

    Average house prices should not be more than £100K.

    They are right to be angry.

  25. Chris in Cardiff makes an interesting point about students (some – those in my neck of the woods are still present and correct) not being at term-time addresses for this election, unlike recent elections. I wonder if student movement will shift the demographic profile of any of the exit poll seats enough to make things awkward for the exit poll team? I haven’t seen anything from Curtice or anyone else talking about arrangements for this year. Similarly, will they have to allow for Brexit-induced swing? If Brexit is shifting Lab votes in some traditional Lab strongholds, as people seem to assume, that presumably complicates matters.

    I’ve got used to trusting the exit poll, now I’m wondering if they’ll have difficulty this year.

    Incidentally, all this talk about youth turnout. Several thousand comments back I got tired of waiting for someone else to do it and did some back-of-the-envelope calculations about how much difference it would make if youth turnout was 20% higher than in 2015 and 70% of them voted Lab. Before I’d reached the end of the process I abandoned my calculations, because it was clear it wouldn’t make much difference to overall vote shares. Of course if the distribution of young people is very uneven it might affect the outcome in particular seats

  26. LASZLO
    Thanks. I wonder if you are able to explain the methods and sources of the YouGov site forecasts (as a test piece rather than as the Holy Grail.)
    On Cooper, I think there is too little understanding of how professional and life-time politicians think of election prospects in relation to long-term policy and political change and its (or their purposes), which may in the Labour Party particularly, view GEs as milestones rather than five-year licences.

  27. They want that UKIP rump.

    Let’s hope they get it but lose the rest.

  28. Prof Howard

    “Get the impression Kezia Dugdale has a spring in her step lately.”

    She must be pleased that Corbyn (whom she opposed) has enthused young folk to vote Lab (but probably not SLab!) and got the Lab vote back up to 2015 levels – according to the YG Full Scottish.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bgdq83jllw/TimesResults_170605_Scotland_WestminsterVI_LeadersApproval_Independence_W.pdf

    Also that Lab and SNP are neck & neck among 18-24 year olds, but they still support indy (by 47% to 31%).

    Now that will produce some headaches in SLab, after the election, considering the campaign they have run.

  29. @Exileinyorks

    Yeah, but the right might just say “blah blah blah” heard it all before, just like with immigration. I think Paxman summed it up with the word “blowhard”.

    Soon find out.

  30. Wow,
    Just returned and see so many old names here. Stalwarts, very impressed.

    Staying with 40 OM for Tories.

    Very febrile electorate though, and with good reason.

  31. I just shared a train journey home with a carriage-full of rather young, pleasant and enthusiastic Corbyn supporters. I guess that must mean I live in Birmingham. Anyway, it was so uplifting, I thought about changing my prediction (for no logical reason) to a slightly smaller Con majority. But then again, no. And it certainly won’t change my vote, I decided that several weeks ago.

    Some observations:

    1) Labour may not have much of a chance this time, but I’m starting to believe things could be very different next time.

    2) A few got off at Five Ways and lots at University station. So that’s quite a few votes in Birmingham Edgbaston – I reckon that’s one marginal that’s safe.

    3) Many more got off at Selly Oak, but Birmingham Selly Oak is safe Labour, no change there.

    4) There were none left by my station, so Birmingham Northfield is not going to get much benefit. I’m pretty sure that’ll be a Con gain.

    Prediction on the way soon, after a cup of tea.

  32. @Ian

    Cheshire West and Chester voted leave. Not Chester on its own. Obviously we don’t get a breakdown per parliamentary constituency but I have seen suggestions that in canvassing the City itself was narrowly remain.

    The Local Council in 2015 was a Labour gain (32, 42, 1 L, C, LD to 38, 36 1 L, C, IND). AFAIK there has only been 1 local council by-election (Blacon Ward) a comfortable Labour hold).

    The 2015 election was a Labour gain. The 2010 was a Tory gain – the last time the Tories held the seat Major was leading the Tories.

    The UKIP vote increase by around 2,500 from 2010 to 2015 and Labour increased by 4,000 in that period – in a election where the national swing was away from LAbout they gained ground in this seat.

    Also. if anyone actually cares (I’m not sure they do) I’m fairly sure that Labour won the PCC election too

    On a more personal level of the candidates the issue of fracking has been a contentious issue and the sitting Labour MP has been vocally against it. He is very visible in the community with both his children attending school in the city and, personal anecdote time, I’ve heard lifelong Tory voters who say they will vote for him because who he is a good MP. The Tory candidate was defeated in the neighbouring constituency (Deeside and Allyn – another interesting battle) in 2015 who ‘will move here if he wins’. Although he was born here and schooled here there seems to be an underlying feeling he is an ‘outsider’. I’d say that is a social media echo chamber but it is comments on open pages rather than just my friendship circle so it does very much feel to me this will be a Lab Hold even before we consider the swing to Labour polls are suggesting.

  33. Dingbat – “If the Tory campaign trail is based on sending May to what the tories consider to be marginal Labour seats now, because of UKIP demise, why do they send her to visit some small factory with 20 employees or whatever? I could see it, if she was out and about shaking hands or knocking doors, but seems to arrive, take questions off the press, then leave.”

    Because the real aim is to get a photo and story in the local papers of wherever she has visited, which would then be read by the citizens of the town she has visited.

    There is no point in her going to town centres and talking to random people. Or knocking on doors during the day in the middle of the week. Most Tory voters work, they arn’t hanging around in city centres or at home, and they most certainly arn’t able to bunk off work to go to rallies, not if they want to get on in their job, promotions, good appraisals, payrises etc.

  34. I defo think that they should have wheeled Boris out so much sooner! He’s that lovable buffoon that seems to allow people to gravitate to him.. and every now and again he comes out with some absolute knock-out stuff (and is, as the kids say “on point”… And some-times delivers with a no messing about attitude, like today. He’s their stealth weapon and should have been allowed out to play so much sooner.

    I just wonder if it’s too little, too late to neutralise some of the To-Labour swing

  35. @AlexW

    Thing is, the ones I’ve met aren’t angry. They don’t begrudge the oldies, and they’re more worried about the disadvantaged than themselves. I haven’t been to a Corbyn rally, but they don’t seem to be hotbeds of revolutionary dischord, so much as having a nice time.

  36. @ALEX W
    Here’s the thing about housing, on a mass build scale the men + materials cost of building a house is 60-80K, the rest comes from the over-inflated price of the underlying land.

    Depends where you live. I live in a 3 bed three floor hiuse. 100 yards from a yacht marina, overlooks the sea out front and the whole of Snowdonia to the rear. House is worth 65k. 250k round here would get you 4/5 bed detached and several acres of adjoining land.

  37. @ALEX W
    Here’s the thing about housing, on a mass build scale the men + materials cost of building a house is 60-80K, the rest comes from the over-inflated price of the underlying land.

    Depends where you live. I live in a 3 bed three floor hiuse. 100 yards from a yacht marina, overlooks the sea out front and the whole of Snowdonia to the rear. House is worth 65k. 250k round here would get you 4/5 bed detached and several acres of adjoining land.

  38. Anyone interested in an analysis of the movements of TM and JC can find their visits mapped against how marginal the seats are, where they were on the leaver/remain scale etc. here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40176539

  39. @ALEX W
    Here’s the thing about housing, on a mass build scale the men + materials cost of building a house is 60-80K, the rest comes from the over-inflated price of the underlying land.

    Depends where you live. I live in a 3 bed three floor hiuse. 100 yards from a yacht marina, overlooks the sea out front and the whole of Snowdonia to the rear. House is worth 65k. 250k round here would get you 4/5 bed detached and several acres of adjoiP

  40. I was just thinking about the “Vote Remain” sticker thing and then it struck me: Why don’t we have any stickers?!! Or T shirts?? We’re missing a great marketing opportunity here…

  41. @Aaron
    With due respect, I think your anecdotal evidence of shoals of Tory posters and May ‘getting her act together’ (perfectly reasonable personal observation), is a case of looking through blue-tinted spectacles.
    Your Labour seats prediction of I think, 158 is as Sir Humphrey would say, very brave.
    I fear you are in for a shock on June 9th.

  42. neuf red

  43. Ciderman – you clearly failed to see my follow up posts or any of the text that surrounded that prediction then. If you’re willing to take a prediction made in jest that clearly stated that I was in love with the idea of a jaw-drop-moment because of the drama while ignoring the 3 or 4 posts after that as an actual, fully fledged, serious prediction then we might need to talk a thing or 2 about sarcasm.

  44. Colin
    “Currently:-
    Two Adults seem to have switched to Greens.
    One Adult still Labour.
    One Grandchild has switched to LD.
    Four Grandchildren still in Corbyntastic mode.”

    I see why you are feeling down. In my case, our four kids (early/mid 30’s) have always been Conservative voters.

    Of their partners, 1 doesn’t vote, ever. I votes Labour (just to annoy his family, who are working class Tories) and the other two are Cons. 5 of the Cons are in Coventry South, which is a blue target seat I think. All somewhere else in 2015.

    No grandchildren old enough to vote. The 14 year old has no interest in politics at all. Far more interested in studying.

    It’s not going to be as bad as you fear, I’m sure of it.

  45. Interesting view on here today, but for me this is the decider ::

    3.8M voted UKIP at the last election
    3.9M people aged 19 to 23

    If the UKIP vote largely goes blue and the young people largely vote red then the two might simply cancel each other out ?

    the only reason I can see why that wouldn’t be the case is that the young people are more evenly distributed across the country so Labour might be expected to hold onto more marginals. But the UKIP vote will shore up the Tory vote and mean that any tactical voting in the south is unlikely to cause a shift in seats.

    Result is thus likely the same as last time… with perhaps a small increase in the conservative majority if the SNP lose votes in Scotland.

  46. candy

    “Most Tory voters work, they arn’t [sic] hanging around in city centres or at home, and they most certainly arn’t [sic] able to bunk off work to go to rallies, not if they want to get on in their job, promotions, good appraisals, payrises etc.”

    Good grief – here we go again.Have you ever actually read the comments policy on this site?

  47. Spaceman – That’s where turnout would then play a massive part…

    If the Kippers are say, above 60 and the youngsters are, well, young.. then statistically speaking, more of the converted Kippers’ votes will convert.. and assuming that they DO go Blue, that’s quite significant.

    But.. if the young ones decide to turn out, then it could get very interesting

  48. @Aaron

    For every one voters who thinks Boris is a loveable buffoon, there is another one who just thinks he’s a buffoon. He didn’t really cover himself in glory either with his opportunism during the EU Referendum campaign.

    He couldn’t be wheeled out any earlier as the Tory strategy was all about Mrs May, Strong and Stable, bringing out Boris or any other of the cabinet for that matter would have gone against the grain

  49. BRISTOLIAN HOWARD

    Welcome back for yet another denouement. Only just arrived back myself.

  50. This is a strong play on terror laws by May. By bringing up human rights which could be changed she’s really setting up JC. If he’s asked about them there is no way he will support it. Voted against this kind of thing his whole career. Then he will look like he’s not strong enough on terror.

    It may be unpopular with some, but there’s no doubt it’ll have mass appeal in light of recent attacks.

    Is it too late in the day though?

1 30 31 32 33