There is only one GB poll so far today – ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian, their penultimate of the campaign. Voting intentions are almost identical to their poll for the Sun on Sunday yesterday, with topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so will have been largely before the terrorist attack in London Bridge. Full tabs are here.

Survation will have a telephone poll out later tonight (probably midnight judging by past weeks’ timings) for Good Morning Britain, delayed for a day because of the terrorist attack. Other than that I expect most companies will now be looking towards their final call polls tomorrow, Wednesday or (if MORI stick their usual timetable) Thursday morning.


1,618 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  1. @ Tom Chadwick

    The ones who would be covering fees will mostly come from the higher earning brackets and they stand to lose a hell of a lot more under a Corbyn administration.

  2. “nearly all the pollsters are within margin of error of the overall average of a 7% Con lead.”

    True but if the final result were 7% (without evidence of a late swing) then neither ICM nor Survation could claim in good conscience to have got it right. After all, ICM did two polls in a row and both got 11% Con leads. Survation did two in a row and both got 1% Con leads. And in ICM’s case their previous polls were also 11% or higher leads. What are the chances of getting it all so wrong in so many successive polls just through the normal error?

  3. I am going to coin a new phrase at this stage in the proceedings.Remember
    me as the one who brought it up
    The Shy UKipper. One who was a Red Kipper, but is now going to vote Tory due to Brexit, and is too embarrassed to admit it.

  4. Sorry sorry sorry, that’s Opinium!!!! But the question stands.

  5. I’ve been through the thread and noted the most recent predictions as follows. Anyone I’ve missed, let me know:

    _____________________

    (81) BARDIN1 (#2 – 5/6)

    Con: 44% (354)
    Lab: 33% (222)
    LD: 9% (9)
    UKIP: 5% (0)
    Grn: 3% (1)
    SNP: 5% (46)

    (82) DANIEL (#2 – 5/6)

    Con: 46% (374)
    Lab: 34% (200)
    LD: 7% (8)
    UKIP: 4% (0)
    Grn: 3% (1)
    SNP: (44)

    (83) AARON (6/6)

    Con: (420)
    Lab: (158)
    LD: (5)
    UKIP: (0)
    SNP: (46)
    Oth: (21)

    (84) TERRYP (6/6)

    Con: 45% (365)
    Lab: 34% (212)
    LD: (3)
    Grn: (1)
    SNP: (48)
    Oth: (21)

    (85) BIGFATRON (6/6)

    Con: 43% (335)
    Lab: 37% (240)
    LD: 8% (6)
    UKIP: 4% (0)
    Grn: 2.5% (1)
    SNP: 5% (46)
    PC: 1.5% (3)
    Oth: (19)

    (86) MARCO FLYNN (#4 – 6/6)

    Con: 43%
    Lab: 35%
    LD: 9.5%
    UKIP: 3.5%
    Grn: 2.5%
    Oth: 7.5%

    (87) GRAHAMBC (#2 – 6/6)

    Con: 40% (284)
    Lab: 42% (289)
    LD: 9% (9)
    Grn: 1% (1)
    SNP: 4% (46)

    (88) MIKE PEARCE (6/6)

    Con: (349)
    Lab: (226)
    LD: (8)
    SNP: (46)
    PC: (3)
    Oth: (18)

    (89) ROBERT NEWARK (6/6)

    Con: (370)
    Lab: (205)
    LD: (3)
    SNP: (47)
    Oth: (25)

    (90) HAWTHORN (6/6)

    Con: (347)
    Lab: (228)
    LD: (6)
    Grn: (1)
    SNP: (48)
    PC: (2)
    Oth: (18)

    (91) BOBINWALES (6/6)

    Con: (360)
    Lab: (215)
    LD: (6)
    SNP: (49)
    Oth: (18)

    **********

  6. NEILA

    @”My own anecdotal world is a bit thin this year.”

    Mine too. Purely family/Facebook.

    Of course the FB stuff I get from their “friends” -mainly the Grandchildren’s-is all Labour. -Or more correctly all Corbyn.

    So it does tend to colour my mood-don’t mind admitting.

    Anyway -so far as I can divine from FB:-

    Three adults-Son+ Daughter in Law , and Daughter.
    Five Grandchildren of voting age.

    All started out “sharing” Corbyn for PM stuff etc.

    Currently:-
    Two Adults seem to have switched to Greens.
    One Adult still Labour.
    One Grandchild has switched to LD.
    Four Grandchildren still in Corbyntastic mode.

    Meaningless & Unrepresentative anecdote…………but something to post about :-)

  7. @Tom Chadwick

    I posted miles up this thread that there must be nearly 2.5 million parents who might find it financially advantageous to vote Labour because of the student fees

    I’m not intending to vote Labour , but facing supporting £50k worth of debt over the next 5-6 years I might be tempted if i lived in a marginal

  8. Dingbat

    Interested in where you heard that from? Not denying it’s true, just doesn’t seem to fit with what I’ve heard elsewhere. Would be interested in hearing since I had assumed they would be the first casualties for Labour, given the tiny majority in WW and the lack of UKIP in Chester…

    Chester: Labour won by less than 100 votes in 2015, Chester Voted Leave in 2016, No UKIP Candidate, UKIP Votes in 2015 GE = 4148 , Bookies Odds Con 1/4 , Lab 5/2…

    Not sure how that equates to things going exceptionally well ???

  9. SSSimon, and are you going to do a Poll of Polls ?

  10. @SSSimon

    Thank you for your efforts.

    I will post a final prediction when the last YG comes out.

  11. @ David Colby

    I think you must be misreading Com Res. Their most recent poll shows 258 of 2038 respondents in the 18-24 age group, and this is then downweighted to 232 to reflect the correct proportion of the population.

  12. “Is it possible we could have shy Labour voters this time ?”

    The bandwagon and ‘virtue signalling’ is all in one direction though: and it is not towards May. In that sense it feels very much like the usual business of a General Election when the sitting government is Tory. Who can possibly forget Milifandom 2015 or the assertions that Labour won the campaign in 1992 and 1987?

    If so, then a segment of those talking by the water cooler in the office; or visibly on social media- about how ‘Jeremy has convinced’ them with his tremendous campaign blah blah blah- will give their cross to the ‘bloody difficult woman’ once in the booth.

    Polling companies have never been very good at picking up the ‘in-poll’ change of mind. I wonder whether Curtice et al are going to add a specific question to the exit poll- along the lines of “when did you make your mind up” etc.

  13. @TUNNIE

    Welcome – I’m not an expert on your question and its been nearly 20 years since I was an undergrad and my kids are still in school. If I remember rightly if you are registered to vote you are eligible to pay council tax – therefore parents may have an interest in not have their children on the electoral register. I remember colleges being very forcible in ensuring that students were registered if in its accommodation. Therefore my guess, based on sketchy memory is that most would be registered where they go to college – unless the made a point of registering at their parents recently as they knew they would be there at the time of the election.

  14. @ Gordy

    This is our poll-of-polls (not including above results), with changes from 2 weeks ago:

    Con: 44.0% -3.3% (348) -49
    ?Lab: 34.3% +4.8% (224) +52?
    LD: 8.6% -0.8% (8) -1?
    SNP: (48) +0

  15. Tunnie

    Students living away from home (as with anyone else with two addresses) can be registered to vote in more than one constituency.

    Of course, at the same election, they are not allowed to vote in more than one of them.

    Naturally, none of them would be so dishonest as to do that – despite there being no mechanism to check if it has actually happened!

  16. NEIL A

    Pretty much how I see things – i.e, very vaguely.

    Prior to the final few polls I still think it will be a Tory win but not hugely different to where they are now.

    But anything from plus 40 or so to NOM seems possible. I think this is down to the uncertainty in so many individual seats so that, even if the polls were broadly at one voice the seats aren’t anyway.

    My guess is that some unexpected Tory seats will fall as well as unexpected Labour ones.

  17. How long will graduates on an average graduate wage take to pay back the fee loan and the maintenance loan?

    Could be decades?

    I wonder whether parents of pre uni teenagers might be swayed by this, given that they might have to support them for longer anyway, given the insecure world of work.

    My wife and I earn about 60K combined. We are in our 30s, childfree, and don’t envisage being able to buy a house in the next decade. We aren’t especially extravagant, although we do go on holiday once a year.

  18. RE: Crowds

    “Kinnock and Foot packed them in”

    Er, no. Kinnock held that one indoor rally, a ticketed national event for LAB members. And Foot spoke to a few small crowds of trade union activists. That’s it.

    The crowds Corbyn is drawing are unprecedented in political campaigning in modern times. 10,000 in the rain in gateshead yesterday. Another 10,000 in Birmingham today.

    Michael Crick of Channel 4 News called them the largest political rallies since Churchill.

  19. JAMES E
    yes I’m so sorry, i typed comres in error. It’s the opinium poll I was watching. I did try to correct this, but the posts are coming fast and furious right now so my correction got a bit lost

  20. Ian: I think Dingbat’s assertion is not so much that Chester will hold on against the tide, but rather that there is no tide, or if there is it is going the other way…

  21. @ Tom Chadwick

    “The ones not wanting to fork out 30k for each of their kids university fees? Or want To see their kids rack up debts.”

    My 11 year old daughter has just told me she wants to become a vet, I told her that if she does well at school I will pay her fees, so a part of me wants to see JC win :)

  22. Redrich

    Dunno re E&W, but your comment re council tax liability applied here only to the poll tax – not the current system of LA funding.

  23. “I posted miles up this thread that there must be nearly 2.5 million parents who might find it financially advantageous to vote Labour because of the student fees”

    Why?

    The loans for fees are levied on the student (not the parent): and over the lifetime of their employment (if its within the UK)- kicking in only at a certain income level.

    Labour are not bringing back student grants- THAT would help parents.

    If- perchance- there is a financial crisis due to Brexit or just because its John Mcdonnell in the Treasury and he’s whacking up Corporation Tax etc etc then very quickly everyone- not just the “rich”- will see their taxes (both direct and indreict) go up.

    I suspect this will be just as big an influence on the final votes cast on Thursday as the idea that their kids wont have 35 years to pay of their student fee loan…

  24. I know one thing from the weekend. I was at a party where there was a lot of health workers. They don’t just dislike the Tories! They will all be voting labour. My boyfriend had a hard time until I pointed out that we needed to have at least one token Tory

  25. @ian @magosh

    In both places, serious boots on the ground effort has seen internal polling showing the Labour lead growing, I did see some stats which I will try and dig out, but the view is very positive.

    Whether that converts is of course another matter, but that’s the feeling right now.

  26. Wasn’t Nick Clegg more popular than Churchill at one point?

  27. Drmibbles

    I think we know what
    Cricks politics are. All I can say but s there are going to be a lot of disappointed people on Friday who are going to have to be very patient for five whole yrs maybe. I wonder if they will manage it.

  28. @Ssimon scenarios where Labour do fairly poorly and Plaid lose seats assume that Labour does absolutely brilliantly in Wales – 50% plus; otherwise assume they stay on 3 unless Lab collapse and then they might start picking up seats and if LD completely disintegrate they gain 1; so they are aminor fringe party but a very stable fringe party

  29. @Rob

    Because most parents I would think don’t want their kids to end University or College with a stack of debt, however long that might be deferred. Therefore if they can most parents wil feel obliged to help them financially.

    Let’s face it, they’ll be back staying with us if they are earning just enough to start paying the debt back and want to save up for a house – I know mine will!

  30. @ ROB SHEFFIELD

    Careful Rob, you will talk yourself into voting Tory at this rate :)

  31. @REDRICH

    Thanks for the welcome. :)

    You are right on council tax, I forget this. For me we proved that it was a house all of students, which resulted in a council bill of £0

    What do we take from that then? If students are registered at their Uni and have gone home?

    This may have the following impact:

    *due to not being able to vote, now they are at home.
    *diluted affect, i.e. student now at home with mum & dad in ultra safe seat.

  32. NatCen have thrown doubts into the idea that turnout will be up at all and that it could be lower than 2015.

    https://www.ft.com/content/127f8778-49e6-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b

  33. Rob Sheffield,
    “Why?
    The loans for fees are levied on the student (not the parent): and over the lifetime of their employment (if its within the UK)- kicking in only at a certain income level.”

    Indeed, it could be argued that it’s a form of income tax rather than a conventional loan. However, that isn’t necessarily how voters perceive it.

    When the very first tuition fees and loans came in at £1000 in the 1990s, there was a BBC special about it featuring a variety of money experts. A worried parent on the programme wondered if it would be possible to pay the fee all up front to spare their child from the yolk of debt. The presenters tried to convince her that the loan was on such favourable terms that she would be better off taking it, but the parent was having none of it.

    There is something about having a debt, even one that you may theoretically never have to pay off, that many people wish to avoid. It’s not about facts and figures, more of an emotional thing.

  34. “…there are going to be a lot of disappointed people on Friday who are going to have to be very patient for five whole yrs maybe.”

    Yes, that happens at every election, regardless of who wins. Thank you for pointing out the obvious.

  35. Drmibbles

    The large crowds don’t mean anything unless they make it onto the news reports. They are making it into local media but national media is mostly ignoring the crowds, just like they did with Bernie. Other problem labour have is there is a layer of cynical media between Corbyn and the voters, you don’t get to hear what he says much. What you get is back and forth commentary about what he says, which neutralizes his major talent of inspirational speaking

  36. @SSSimon

    Didn’t realise we could have a second or even 4th bite of the cherry.

    Con: 42% (351)
    Lab: 34% (220)
    LD: 8% (8)
    UKIP: 5% (0)
    Grn: 2.5% (1)
    SNP: 5% (48)
    PC: 1.5% (3)
    Oth: 2(19)

  37. @HARRY
    ‘I don’t think he ‘meekly agreed’ – backing the motion was his best option, as otherwise he’d have ‘bottled the election’.’

    That does not follow . Corbyn could simply have forced May to table a Vote of No Confidence as provided for in the FTPA. The resulting constitutional chaos – with Corbyn likely to have become PM – could have been pinned on May – particularly in the context of her earlier statements.
    Whilst it has been touched upon I do think the Opposition could have made more of May’s ‘compulsive aversion to telling the truth’. They should have gone to greater lengths to make it a central campaign theme.

  38. So Lucid Talk is predicting that Sinn Fein will pick up 1 seat from UUP.

    That’s now only 9 seats for May to have from Northern Ireland if she is in a minority situation, plus possibly Lady Herman.

    223 need for a real majority if you discount Sinn Fein.

  39. @ Catmanjeff

    Any idea when that might be as with so many posts very hard to find individual ones now.

  40. @dingbat,

    Thanks for following up – that’s actually quite promising if true. Personally I’m expecting about 200-210 seats for Labour, and would have anticipated Chester to be a no-hoper, even on a night where Labour made net gains.

    But as you say, whether it happens on the day is another question. If you do find the stats, it would be great if you could share.

  41. Interesting development in Scottish Leaders debate tonight. Sturgeon says that Dugdale told her after the EU Referendum that SLab should drop its opposition to a second independence referendum. Dugdale denies this but Sturgeoen stands her ground and says Dugdale.is entitled to change her mind.

  42. From BBC Website

    “There’s basically no correlation between the weather and turnout,” says Stephen Fisher an associate professor of political sociology at Oxford University.

    Mr Fisher’s research suggests people are more likely to vote if the election race is close and there is a strong difference between the two leading parties.

    He points to the 2001 election, where turnout fell to 59%, the lowest since World War Two.

    A comfortable Labour win had been expected. And, for some, Tony Blair was not sufficiently distinct from his Conservative rivals.

    “In 2001 a lot of people saw New Labour as centrist,” says Mr Fisher.

    “They didn’t see much difference ideologically, and it didn’t really matter who they voted for.”

    But political parties’ efforts to get people to vote can be effective.

    “Having being contacted by a party worker makes a difference to turnout,” says Mr Fisher.

  43. Anecdotal. Around my way (Cotswolds) in the 2015 election I saw around 15/20 Labour placards. This time going around the same areas I’ve seen about 5.
    If Labour is supposed to be doing so good surely I’d be seeing more Labour posters?

    I’m still going for 40/70 Con majority.

    Anyone seen TOH?

  44. @Oldnat

    Just looked it up and now in E&W full time students are exempt. I don’t know kids these day have it easy, unlike us who got a full grant and fees paid.

  45. @Pete

    TOH commented a couple of times yesterday.

    Can’t recall what he said though.

  46. Graham

    I don’t see that working at all. May would have got her election anyway and labour would have ended up with less than 100 seats. It would have rightly imo seen as irresponsible recklessness and stubborn Corbyn would have got all the blame.

    As too your other point….every time labour gets going on May and her aversion to telling the truth there is terrorist attack. If May wins it will be the terrorists that have saved her bacon.

  47. @Tunnie

    *due to not being able to vote, now they are at home.
    *diluted affect, i.e. student now at home with mum & dad in ultra safe seat

    Possibly – depends on college dates, accommodation lease lengths etc and how organised determined the individual is to make sure they get to vote. The fact that younger people tend to be more transient in general has always been a factor in relatively low turnout for the demographic.

  48. @ Pete

    In my local area I have the full set of safe Cons, safe Lab, Lab marginal, and Cons marginal. My impression is that there are a lot less posters in all of them (from all parties) than in 2015.

    There have been a lot of anecdotal comments from others about the sparse poster coverage. Could this be a sign that we are moving away from traditional methods towards more emphasis on digital promotion.

  49. @CAMBRIDGERACHEL
    I was at a party where there was a lot of health workers. They don’t just dislike the Tories! They will all be voting labouR

    My daughter is an NHS surgeon, my ex-wife is an NHS nurse and my sister. is a nurse. All voted Leave, all are voting Tory on Thursday. They all say New Labour crippled the NHS with its PFI schemes and that there is plenty f money on the NHS but the management and waste are appalling.

  50. Pete

    “If Labour is supposed to be doing so good surely I’d be seeing more Labour posters?”

    We have far more Labour posters up around Clacton than Tory ones. Many more than the 2015 GE. In fact, apart from a couple of very large Tory Billboards, I haven’t seen one Tory poster up in anyone’s house.

    It doesn’t mean Labour are going to win though. I don’t think you can tell anything from the number of posters up. In the 2015 GE for example, Colchester was absolutely awash with LibDem posters, but Bob Russell still lost his seat.

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