There is only one GB poll so far today – ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian, their penultimate of the campaign. Voting intentions are almost identical to their poll for the Sun on Sunday yesterday, with topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so will have been largely before the terrorist attack in London Bridge. Full tabs are here.

Survation will have a telephone poll out later tonight (probably midnight judging by past weeks’ timings) for Good Morning Britain, delayed for a day because of the terrorist attack. Other than that I expect most companies will now be looking towards their final call polls tomorrow, Wednesday or (if MORI stick their usual timetable) Thursday morning.


1,618 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  1. @GARJ

    You can read it here:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/

    “Take our most recent poll. After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old.”

  2. Does anyone know how long after the 2015 GE there was any definitive evidence on the turnout of the “young”? I am looking forward to that day this year a lot.

  3. PORROHMAN

    Of course, because you can only count turnout on election day.

    But all available evidence i.e. the number of young people stating they are 10/10 certain to vote is really emphatically conclusive.

    “Ah but young people said they would turn out in 2015 and didn’t”

    Yes, because pollsters used panels of people who were too politically engaged compared to the rest of the population. They have corrected for that.

  4. @ Dr Mibbles,

    I get that about YouGov but I am very sceptical about the very idea of “recruiting onto a panel” less engaged voters. Surely if you say “yes” to being recruited onto a panel you are, by definition, already more engaged.

    That is why I am very suspicious of the panel approach to polls. YouGov’s track record has been sadly appalling at the last two key elections (Last GE and EU Ref) and phone seems to be more accurate.

  5. @Redrich

    There’s a word for such a system, its called a gerontocracy.

  6. Barbazenzero

    The Grauniad recommendation on Radio Scotland? Possible, but a little unlikely, I’d have thought.

    However, the issue of armed police (and the higher numbers of both police numbers and the number of those trained to use firearms) was raised on BBC Scotland’s Newsdrive tonight.

    Police Scotland clearly not happy with those politicians trying to attack the Scottish Government via them!

    I doubt that much will change committed votes at this late stage, but for those who are still swithering in the polling booth, perceptions can still matter.

    Perhaps of more serious note, was the contribution from the Scottish Police Federation – “What do the public expect from unarmed officers in response to armed terrorists? Running away is unacceptable, but so is putting their own lives in danger”.

    They want serious discussion of the so-called “Norway model” where patrolling officers are not armed, but have guns locked down in their cars which can be brought into action if authorisation is given.

    That policy was one which the former Chief Constable introduced, but had to back down from in response to opposition from “the opposition”!

    While that is a devolved issue, and should be a matter for debate at Holyrood, people are unclear as to which Government does what (and parties do little to help that understanding!)

  7. What time is the Survation Poll out?

    I think that the ICM poll is on the high side, but could be closer to reality given the ‘Shy Tory’ factor. I am not sure how significant it is, but at least three of my friends have said that they would purposly give the wrong party if polled, since last week.

    Looking at the types of seats that would fall and 1/25 odds of them not falling etc, I am finding it hard to believe that the You Gov method is accurate but we shall see.

    For me, taking as many different points of reference as possible it looks like there is still a significant, if not spectacular, Tory lead and this will deliver around 360 seats on Thursday.

  8. @Woody

    We don’t seem to have any idea who the 3m extra people who voted in the EU referendum are (more people than voted for Lib Dem in 2015).

    If they turn out this time – who are they, how did they vote in the EU referendum, who are they voting for this time?

    If they don’t turnout, how much are they skewing current polls that are weighted to the EU referendum result?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39922798

  9. Dr Mibbles
    “The increase in youth turnout is a very real phenomenon.”

    Not until June 8th it isn’t.

    Anyway, g’night all. Site too busy to keep up with.

  10. Sturgeon’s just run in to a few sticky questions…Thoughts?

  11. Adrian B I do wonder that in general about all the polls! Surely even phone polls will involve slightly more “engaged” people as many people either wouldn’t bother answering or would decline to take part in the survey! As for internet polls, wouldn’t many of the “less engaged” simply ignore emails asking them to participate?

  12. DRMIBBLES

    RE Canterbury

    I think you are a over stating Labour chances there.

    The conservatives have got circa 22,000 votes in 2015 and 2010.

    If *every* Labour and Libdem voter voted Labour this time that would be 19,000 votes.

    This leads a gulf of 3,000 votes.

    Take into account there is also 7,000 UKIP voters. (who are not standing here in 2017)

    Even with those adjustments you state I cannot see it being close at all.

  13. Rich- I’m surprised at how hostile the crowd are. Ring to Sturgeon. The SNP honeymoon is over somewhat. I’m a committed Unionist but I think Sturgeon is a talented politician.

  14. So, with only Survation poll to go before the eve of poll polls, I guess it’s time for me to stick my neck out and make a prediction. Hard as it is, I want to make a prediction based upon my opinion as to the reliability and accuracy of the polling data, rather than pick figures that best reconcile my own wishes, my echo chamber and the polls combined.

    This is the third GE I’ve followed on UKPR and whilst there seems to have been more partisan claptrap than previously (from both the red and blue teams) there have been more than a fair share of insightful comments and explanations to help me understand the polls. My thanks to all who have commented in this way.

    In terms of VI, there are two questions in my mind; the youth turnout question and the shy Tory / shy loser question.

    On the first, to oversimplify, the question is whether you believe the turnout will be closer to 2015 or 2010. Whilst I am sure that the impact of Corbyn on the youth vote has been overstated by many, I do not think it can be ruled out in its entirety. I therefore think YouGov have got it about right; the youth turnout will be roughly what it was for Clegg mania in 2010; not much more, not much less.

    Re shy Tory/shy Loser: IMO the generation gap in VI is much more markednthan previously, and we all operate in our own echo chamber. My suspicion is that there are shy Tories amongst the Youth but also shy Labour amongst the older generation (particularly since the so called dementia tax phase of the campaign). I’m going to work on the principle that the two will cancel each other out.

    In terms of turning the vote share into seats, the Yougov model has certainly added to the debate. Having learned the basic principles of how it works, I would challenge the assumption of correlating one constituency to another; I think that there are too many variables going on and there will be a lot of surprise results on the night (i.e. constituency correlations of the past may not be so true this time around) The other factor, that hasn’t been discussed here is any effect of the campaign encouraging tactical voting. I’ve had no visibility of it, but I live in a fairly safe seat, so I wasn’t expecting to. However, I am aware that there was quite a bit of money being pumped into it, so I suspect it will have had some impact, somewhere. The combination of these two opposing factors drive me somewhere between the Yougov estimate and what other models are saying.

    Actual predictions follow in a moment in a separate comment…

  15. @Mike88

    If we’re talking Yougov here you earn points for participation, I do one every week or so but have never been asked for a direct political preference.

  16. …how hostile the crowd are being to Sturgeon…

  17. Given that Survations last poll was Saturday nights +1 CON, and that that has been the most extreme of all the polls so far, are we all assuming that tonight’s poll will show an increase in the CON lead?

    What figures in tonight’s poll would really make you sit up and take notice?

    I think a -2 or even a -3 for LAB would be a good poll. -4/-5/-6 would be meh,, -7 or more would be a bad poll for Labour. Anything -1 or above would be pretty earth-shattering.

  18. Sturgeon is getting almost mauled by this crowd, I honestly thought it would be quite a few under arm balls. genuinelly surprised.

  19. @rich

    May ran into sticky questions today – thoughts?

  20. “CATMANJEFF
    Is this election a referendum on Diane Abbott?
    I think there are much bigger issues….”

    Well, clearly so, though one could make that remark about almot anything being discussed. However the potential problem is reflected in polling and, whilst Corbyn’s ratings have gone in one direction and May’s in the other, Abbott’s just seem to be stuck in a very, very low groove.

    So there is at least some relevance to the bigger picture.

    RICH

    “Sturgeon’s just run in to a few sticky questions…Thoughts?”

    No, not really. Well, not about that anyway, I was just thinking about music actually, since you ask.

  21. Daibach…..the suspense!!!!!

  22. Incidentally, the Grauniad advice in Scotland is being somewhat misrepresented upthread.

    It’s just an ABT policy.

    “The priority should be to thwart Theresa May’s ambitions for ongoing austerity and a version of Brexit customised to the ideological agenda of the Conservative party’s radical fringe. That requires enough Labour MPs to form an alternative government. In Scottish seats where Tory candidates run the race close, it means preferring the SNP. Mrs May called this election complacently assuming voters across the UK would vastly extend her mandate. Scottish and English voters might choose different ways to puncture that complacency, but its punishment is a common imperative across the union.”

  23. @hireton,

    Sure I agree, Mays had loads of sticky questions. I just thought Sturgeon got hit a few times on education and the referendum. During one part some of the audience were laughing at her and I was told that was really bad when it happened to May.

  24. I think Mrs Sturgeon did pretty well in that debate. She got tough questions but responded extremely well and authoritatively.

    Will go down well with the voters.

    Expect a boost in the SNP VI.

  25. It basically goes like this:

    40% youth turnout = ICM/ComRes are right
    50% youth turnout = YouGov are right
    60% youth turnout = No-one is right and LAB are actually slightly ahead

    For reference:

    2015 = 43% youth turnout
    2010 = 51% youth turnout
    2005 = 39% youth turnout
    1992 = 66% youth turnout

    All available evidence suggests youth turnout will be higher than 2015 or 2010. This is simply undeniable when you look at the underlying data.

  26. I genuinely can`t see the Conservatives winning a landslide. Prior to the local elections in May the Conservatives had a 20 point lead and were polling 47%. Theresa May was on a high and Jeremy Corbyn was widely considered to be an electoral disaster waiting to happen for the Labour party. Yet despite this the Conservatives still only achieved 38% at the ballot box.

    Now admittedly local factors play a bigger role potentially in council elections, although I think that’s over estimated, but that`s still a significant drop. Now since those local elections Theresa May and the Conservatives have had a dire general election campaign and despite most peoples expectations the Labour party and Corbyn have had a good campaign. The Tory poll lead has dropped anywhere between 12% and 1% according to various polling organisations.

    Given these figures I just can`t see the Conservatives achieving more than 42% in their best case scenario getting them at best a 10 -30 seat majority, and if the youth vote does turn up to vote which is possible, then a hung parliament would seem likely.

  27. “During one part some of the audience were laughing at her and I was told that was really bad when it happened to May.”

    Not at all, it was great.

    [Only joking – I didn’t watch or listen. OTH chortling is not as bad as shouting abuse in my view.]

  28. @SSSimon

    My predictions:

    Vote share (excl NI)
    Con 42
    LAB 38
    LD 9
    UKIP 3
    GRN 2
    SNP 4
    PC 1

    Seats
    Con 330
    Lab 245
    LD 8
    UKIP 0
    GRN 1
    SNP 45
    PC 2
    NI18
    Spkr 1

    (I’ve allowed myself a little bias just for the schadenfreude – I actually think that the Tory majority will be 5 – 10 more, but the irony of ending up with the same majority as last time is too much to Resist!)

    I also predicted that there will be a shock exit poll, predicting a hung parliament but that a Tory majority will emerge as the night progresses, much like 2015.

  29. DRMIBBLES

    If this is 1992 Youth Turnout again, TM is toast.

  30. Both Farron and Sturgeon are doing/have done ok. No car crashes. Nick Robinson also seems a little better at guiding the discussion than other moderators, perhaps they should have had him on the 7-way debate.

  31. OLDNAT

    I wasn’t being entirely serious re GMS, though it wouldn’t be beyond the bounds of possibility that they find a way of reporting it as an SNP bad story.

    I wasn’t aware of the SPF

  32. OLDNAT

    I wasn’t being entirely serious re GMS, though it wouldn’t be beyond the bounds of possibility that they find a way of reporting it as an SNP bad story.

    I wasn’t aware of the SPF

  33. @ Daibach

    Nice analysis so far, very even-handed. I agree on most of your points. Let me try to get in my guess before you.

    I’ve got to the stage where I suspect none of the polls before the big day will show any significant differences. So might as well throw the dart now. It’s all about which polling company you think have the better corrections. I have no idea, so I’m plumping for the middle ground – no landslide, no hung parliament.

    I’m going for Tory majority 50-60. It’s what I thought after the weekend, and I don’t intend to change before polling day. I can hope for other things (and do), but that’s my guess.

  34. Reference Diane Abbott, it is quite staggering, almost surreal, how bad she is. I cannot see this not being a factor given that she will be in charge of MI5 and the Police. 20,000 rural Police cuts (which I am totally against by the way) is not in the same league.

    I am going to go for a 9-10 point lead.

    I also read a fascinating article in the Guardian today which adds a further point of reference to the fact that the You Gov poll is out….

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/03/could-youth-vote-win-jeremy-corbyn-election-poll-leftwing-surge

  35. In 1992 Major won, I recall.

    DAIBACH (the soldier?)
    Hello:
    How can you be so optimistic about the Lab figures?
    Do you think that Labour is doing well in the marginal seats?

  36. @ Daibach – noted.

  37. If the polls do herd by Thursday morning I will be quite disappointed. They should really be

  38. DAIBACH
    Re shy Tory/shy Loser: IMO the generation gap in VI is much more markednthan previously, and we all operate in our own echo chamber. My suspicion is that there are shy Tories amongst the Youth but also shy Labour amongst the older generation (particularly since the so called dementia tax phase of the campaign). I’m going to work on the principle that the two will cancel each other out.

    Interesting thought, thanks. I had never really considered older ‘shy labour’ as a factor. I’m not sure there’s much evidence for it, but I think the ‘shy tory’ thing was discounted in the last polling enquiry.

    I personally think that the big factor that may make the polls wrong again, is the unpollable voters.

  39. Geoff

    Not sure what a good poll or less good poll would be for Labour from Survation, but I do wonder if the final polls will converge a little, perhaps not to the extent they did last time round. So I would not be surprised if tonight’s poll widened the lead a little. Conversely ICM and Comres might come down a jot. Survation gave the game away last time round by not announcing their final poll (which got the result near right) because they thought it must be wrong!

    Anyway, my forecasting is usually rubbish, so I’ve probably ensured Survation will give Labour the lead.

  40. DAIBACH

    @”I also predicted that there will be a shock exit poll, predicting a hung parliament”

    Yes-I’ve been thinking that too !

  41. Very good finish by Mrs Sturgeon. She is undoubtedly a very capable and impressive person.

  42. They should really be sticking by their numbers as YouGov have.

  43. Two weeks ago the online Survation had an 12% Con lead and the phone Survation had a 9% Con lead; the YouGov done around the same time also had a 9% Con lead.

    A week ago, there was no online Survation, but the phone Survation had a 6% Con lead, and the YouGov done around the same time had a 7% Con lead.

    A couple of days ago the online Survation was published and had a 1% Con lead. Now we await the phone Survation, which – if anything – tends to be less Con-friendly than the online Survation (though maybe this was a fluke, I’m not sure we have enough data to go on). Additionally we’ve seen that the phone Survation tends to have similar or slightly smaller Con leads than YouGov. And further, we’ve seen that since the most recent phone Survation, the YouGov Con lead has tightened to 4%.

    From this I would expect tonight’s Survation to show a Con lead of 3 or 4%.

  44. More evidence on youth turnout:

    2.4 million under 35’s have registered to vote for the election.

    That’s a very high number considering many will have already registered for the Brexit referendum and 2015 GE.

    Yes, registering isn’t the same as voting, but this is nearly twice the number of people who registered before the 2015 GE.

  45. Geoff/David – this poll is a phone survey unlike the Survation at the weekend so changes quoted will be from a week (and a day) ago – 43/37/8/4

  46. AR558

    “If this is 1992 Youth Turnout again, TM is toast.”

    What exactly is the problem with toast? It’s a staple of the English breakfast at all the bestist B and B boutiques.

    Also [I get really intrigued by the minutiae of things, which is one of my better qualities as a musician] who first referred to a slightly poor interview etc as “a car crash?”

    More importantly, why does almost everybody feel the need to follow these trends? I certainly don’t and can’t think of any friends who do.

    [Anyway, if ole Nicola’s interview WAS a car crash I reckon she definitely IS toast.]

  47. OLDNAT

    I wasn’t being entirely serious re GMS, though it wouldn’t be beyond the bounds of possibility that they find a way of reporting it as an SNP bad story.

    I wasn’t aware of the SPF proposals, which seem very sensible.

    What I did notice was May’s Edinburgh speech, which struck me as being less than veracious regarding the duties of the SG to provide counter-terrorism cover. Perhaps I missed that new piece of devolution in her manifesto.

    Still surprised that there’s no mention of the ITV and C4 revelations on this thread.

  48. David Dimbleby says he gets the exit poll roughly 15 minutes before 10pm. So those looking for a shock outcome should analyse then for any sudden changes in demeanour ;-)

  49. RP

    Do you know if the fabled final 2015 poll from Survation was online or by phone?

  50. @SSSimon,

    I would like to revise my prediction. Is that allowed?

    Here is my updated one;

    Cons 43% (350)
    Lab 34% (220)
    Libs 7.5% (7)
    UKIP 3.5% (0)
    Greens 3% (1)
    SNP 4.5% (50)

    Going for a majority of around 50

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